 What was the last said news or Dan for short? My name is Rob. They just like the thumbnail and title suggests we're going to take a look at This rally that we just experienced for the last two days Does it have legs and can it continue in the december? We're also going to take a look at uh, or what I like to say that my philosophy has some change and everybody's a genius Then we'll talk about elections as far as midterms that are coming up here in the united states And how that could affect the market and lastly take a look at some positive news As I call it build a bear and that is the cash app So first things first this uh came across deaths was pretty interesting and it took a look at a santa claus rally What i'm taking a look at here Is there was a video and this is uh, dr. Yardini from Yardini research And he's talking to msnbc or cnbc about how this rally that we're having right now could extend Into to uh december and why but first the question I want to ask is who is dr. Yardini? Why should we listen to this gentleman? Well, here's his biography dr. Yardini is the president of Yardini research He was the chief investment strategist of oak associate's provisional equity group in deuce banks u.s Equities division in new york city also chief economist of cj. Lawrence prudence box securities at ef hudden taught at columbia university's graduate school business and also Was an economist with the federal reserve bank of new york and held positions at the federal reserve board of governors and the u.s Treasury department in washington dc so the things he's going to talk about here as to the relevance of why this could potentially be a Rally that extends in december does have some merits. Just take a listen Well, I think we're in a trading range from the june low 3666 we did recently drop below that but I think We're just kind of making about another bottom here right around that level and then in the summer we went from All the way up to 43 oh five in august 16th Obviously still well below The record high we had at the beginning of the year, but I think we're in that kind of range And I think that we're going to get another santa claus rally and santa claus rallies are particularly Predictable and strong As a result of midterm elections and it almost really doesn't matter Whether the which way the house and the senate go the midterm elections No matter what have a tendency to be very bullish in the santa claus rally just continues Right for the next three six twelve months I'll give you the data if you want it, but I don't know if you want me to throw data at you This late this late in the afternoon on the friday Well, I mean you're talking about a santa claus rally, but what if it's too icy and dicey because of the fed Right and rates are going to remain high the fed's going to remain hawkish And stocks aren't going to be able to rally nearly the amount that you suggest they might be able to Well scott, I listened in to your show earlier and I heard you mentioned something about the possibility That the market might already be discounting all that I think at this point the market knows they're going to do 75 basis points In early november and now only that the market's confused about whether it's going to be 75 or 50 basis points in december I thought it was going to be 275s one after the other but now the fed's throwing some Uncertainty about that. I think what the market's looking for is for a pause. I don't think they're looking for a pivot They're looking for a pause the fed's been awfully aggressive 300 basis points so far since march another 75 basis points in there early november And I think they will go ahead with another 75 basis points in december But I think the market knows all that and I think the market as we saw today got a lift from the idea that it might be Only 50 basis points and then there might be a pause for a while Now the economy is doing pretty well under the circumstances when all all things considered I think one of the reasons it's doing so well is because the strong dollar Looks like it should be weighing on the economy But the dollar is strong because money is absolutely pouring in to our capital market So over 1.6 trillion dollars 1.6 trillion dollars came into the Uh Into our markets from from overseas on balance over the 12 months And that's through august and the strong dollar is telling me money is still coming in And that's a big positive for our economy So there's a lot to unpack there with what dr. Dini said So the first thing we want to take a look at is how everything did as far as midterms And of course we talked with us numerous times in the channel But uh, yes here in the us as far as midterms We take a look at uh, who is going to win congress Who is going to take control of senate or the house of representatives? We can see that all the way back in the 60s Uh, as you see right here in the middle frame before the midterm the s&p 500 price Usually it's down negative 17 percent of 60s negative 14 74 negative 31 percent That was right before the great recession almost the depression And only one that was really good was uh, ronald reagan 20 percent or so and then uh, now we're here We are joe videnay of 20 percent But if we can just take a look at the averages and we see right here that the s&p 500 price uh after three months within three months After the midterm elections dr. Dini is right the midterm average Is you're looking at negative one percent on the average of before and then a positive seven percent Then in six months a positive 15 and then in up to a year a positive 16 percent So that's a positive and we can see that could potentially play a factor Also the thing we talked about a the u.s. Dollar index the dixie and the strength of the dollar And actually it's going down a little bit as we can see right here over the last day We were we topped out at I think around 114 or so 112 113.31. Yeah roughly and now here we are coming down but as he talks about uh trillions or 1.4 trillion Uh capital is flowing into and another thing that he didn't mention but I've heard someplace else is that One of the reasons that a potential rally is going on in traditional markets and in crypto right now is The treasury rate are the 10 year treasury yields And we can take a look at uh, what's happening with just the 10 year We can break it down by one month And three months and you can't really see it too much But the treasury notes treasury bills t bills notes You can see right here that uh, they've actually they've been going up for a while Which means that hey if you want a uh, a little bit of stability We put it over here and then we'll give you 4 percent. It's been very flat Not beforehand, but you can just see right here at the apex 4.25 for the three month now. It's not a 4.25. Also Take a look at the six month Same thing we had peaked out around 4.25 an hour down to 4.1 Which is to to me really not a big deal But to economists and people who really take a look at the treasury rates This could be something huge and even the even the one year very hard to see But we top that at 4.25 an hour 4.1 So what that means is that maybe there's a little bit more stability coming down the pipe just like with dr Yachter your guinea said when he talked about hey There's a lot of things that are going on But maybe the fed isn't not pivoting but slowing down and because of that That could potentially lead to what he called that Santa Claus rally now How does that take a look as far as what's going on in the traditional markets? Not too great honestly today, uh, the nasdaq or excuse me the uh, yeah nasdaq is down We went from 11,193 Oh, it had 11,000 if we take a look at the five day Still down one month up a little bit six months And of course one year still down But there was a little bit of a Splite rally also smp 500 again the same thing one day five day looking pretty good one month Okay, six month not so great and then one year The big question though is well, how does that work for for a crypto and digital assets? Well, our market is doing pretty good and last uh, 24 hours We're at 3.7 up at 3.6.2 But you can see a little bit of a decline the last hour or you are in the red For some parts, but we're still above the one trillion market cap So when he talks about these rallies, of course, we're going to go up and down We could see a little bit of rally here and there, but this is again a bear market rally Do not confuse this with all we're going to go to the moon Very soon. It's just not how it works But there's a thing that we could take a look at as to why we are doing so well And one of those is liquidations and shorts and this is just an example I would like to leave this here Hopefully this can burn into your brain But you know when everybody talk about everybody goes in a certain direction And then everybody starts to follow up It only takes a little bit of effort to really go in the reverse opposite way and make a ton of money So right now the people that are going long, there's a short squeeze going on And right now we've the shorts They've lost over Oh about 1.3 1.4 billion dollars in the last 24 hours So if you're in a short position, it probably would have made sense So a couple of days ago, you might have said, well, this is where the things are going But in reality, that's not what it is And then also the thing that I always take a look at is Does this this ride that we have going on, does it have any legs? What is the volume going on? There's a great website called nomics.com The link in the description And you can separate or you can filter everything as far as the volume percentage and the volume numbers Finance is by far the biggest So was there a lot of volume? Well, in the last 24 hours, we can see that was 11 billion While we take a look at a week Pretty high One month, about an average One year, mostly about an average So it wasn't a low type of situation It actually had a little bit of merit to what happened So we take a look also at besides finance The volume here is, let me separate this OK X 22 billion dollars in the last 24 hours So let's take a look at a day One week, all right What was that, 19 billion dollars? One month, all right One year And we can see that pretty much an average of one of the peaks Not a low volume pump So there is something to be said about that And then also let's take a look at FTX One day, we're looking at almost three billion dollars One week 15 billion as far as on October 24th Ah, and then one month, one year We can see it's a little bit low But not too bad So does this leg have a little bit of pump? Sure Or does the pump have a little bit of leg space And could it run? It could But again, nobody really knows the future Nobody really knows what's going on And also I was going to leave this up here For people in the comments section I had a question yesterday Because we had talked about regulations A couple of days ago And one of the things that we talked about Was Sam Bacon-Free About what his position is And how he was handling things And I just had a question for everybody I know there's a lot of comments going around about SPF But I asked a question on Twitter What's the specific problem with SPF? And what is he doing in the crypto space that is egregious? Some say he's a savior While a good amount of people are saying he's a devil Don't give me opinion, give me facts Comment below And this was from Divine Art Where he talks about, hey, you gotta take a look at this guy And most everything that I got was not facts It was just a bunch of hyperbole Maybe and opinions So if you have a specific reason why SPF is the devil incarnate for crypto Please leave it in the comment section below And that'll lead me to my last points here with the remove on My philosophy hasn't changed Look, we have these rallies They're called bear market rallies I know how people will look at these and go This is it This is going to take off, it's going to the moon Slow down These bear market rallies They could be extended But usually this isn't the catalyst Take a look at the macro events Has there been anything that happens globally with the reserve, the global banks? Has there been anything that's happened specifically with the war in Ukraine? Has there been anything that's happened with the Fed definitely pivoting? Not really So when I take a look at all these things I'm like, what are the factors that really could lead to a big rally? I'm not so sure But I will tell you this My philosophy hasn't changed I still dollar cost average And I still am going to take profits along the way Matter of fact, I just took profits today I was buying Bitcoin around the $18,400 range I was buying Ethereum around the $1,300 range And I ladder in and I ladder out I know some people will say, well, that's not a good strategy Because I'm just going to wait for the moon Do what you want to This is not financial advice This is the things that I am doing I can't tell you what to do I'm not your dad So let me know what you think about that in the comment section That will also lead me to one more point Which is about the balance As far as your portfolio So I'd like to thank Masterworks For again, sponsoring the video When I talk about balance When something goes down Or the other part to go up And vice versa You don't want to put everything into whatever Basket that you have It's best just to balance things out Because over time, it seems to work out So for me, this is my wheelhouse Cash, stable coins Dejens, land, property Amazon business, staking IRA But Masterworks itself This is buying fractionalized shares of fine art So I've got two myself Banks and a Basquiat And over a year now That's October 26 now I'm up 40% for the Basquiat painting Remember, these are fractionalized shares So this is what they've done As far as their performance Over and over again Looks like it's been pretty good And this is the performance year to date As far as Masterworks for Russell NASDAQ, S&P 500 And I can tell you right now It's kicking the pants off of crypto itself It's also not correlated to real estate goal Or S&P 500 It's uncorrelated asset And a couple of the reasons are this Rich people are crazy They like their art And this is a prime example A Banksy was on sale for $1.8 million Banksy shredded it Now it's worth $25.4 million Don't ask why These are just the things that Masterworks takes a look at and says This is an appreciating asset And then also don't worry This is actually registered with the SEC Because it is a security And you can take a look at all the paintings And all the things that are offered Which are listed on the SEC's website Links in the description So if that's something you'd be interested in Just take a look as a description down below And there was a link And you can check that out And skip the wait line And that will take care of that So now real quick As we were talking about midterm elections Only transition to this little piece I thought it was interesting Because I always thought I was in the minority Of wanting regulations Well, apparently I'm not So this is a story from Fortune Where the four and five U.S. voters Say politicians' crypto position Could affect how they vote As the November 8th U.S. midterm elections Grow closer Crypto council for innovation Leads the poll of likely voters Hiding the impact of crypto and voting decisions I can tell you this would sway me in opinion If someone was anti-crypto I couldn't vote for them Some 84% of those polled Say politicians' position on crypto Would be a factor in determining their vote But I have to preface this The vast majority said it would be minor That's okay Some people say it's minor Some people say it would be a big deal So Cory Gardner Former U.S. Senator from Colorado Said voters want this to be taken seriously They want the potential to be recognized And I got to tell you With the razor-thin edge That Democrats hold in Senate And of course in the House of Representatives Where I think that's going to be flipped as well These types of talking points The things that people are concerned with Become at the forefront So every little thing counts The poll reveals that crypto is a motivating factor Whether they hold any crypto or not Especially given the negative headlines of hacks And this is where it says How likely voters feel about crypto rigs This was amazing to me Because on this channel I've always said this is an unpopular opinion But apparently it is not There it is It's a This is a popular opinion How likely voters feel about crypto regulations 52% said we need more regulations Only 7% needs fewer And 20% have had enough 20% don't know already So over half So I'm on the majority Let me know what you think about that In the comment section But it's amazing to me That I think people are starting to get it That for institutions to come in We're going to need regulations Because their whole Preface is this It's not about making money It's about wealth preservation And there is no good sense for them To come in here And then have the SEC come about And go oh guess what Everything's security Or they're going to defy And go oh guess what Everything just got hacked And then away it goes That's not a recipe for success So let me just go get that In the comments And let's finish up with Some positive news Cash app So cash app I've used sparingly I didn't really think it was a big deal But I can see why this Is going to make a difference So the cash app users can now send And receive bitcoin via lightning Lightning if you don't know Second layer solution Sits on top of bitcoin And it makes transaction costs cheap How cheap? Less than a penny And for me as a small business owner That is huge Because I pale 2.99% plus 30 cents And we'll take a look at the fees And how much it compares to lighting So here's what's happening Previously Cash app users could only send bitcoin Via the lightning network Now they can use a solution To receive and send Which sounds pretty good A lot with the lightning There is typically little to no fees involved It's used to send smaller amounts of bitcoin This is from the cash app website But there is a $999 limit Every seven days with the lightning integration This is only available to US customers Except those in New York state Surprise Says the app's website And there's 44 million monthly users Let me say that again I didn't know that 44 million monthly users That's huge So the question I have was this Well, if they're using bitcoin To send and receive and you know that Just to send What's the cost of bitcoin right now To send it off Because I don't really know So there's a great website YCharts.com Link in the description You can find this This measures the average fees And US dollars And you can see that It's a dollar 34 To send bitcoin Which I gotta tell you Isn't the greatest But that's an average Just so you know That is an average But we can go back five years or so We can see there was some huge Transaction fees Remember in April 2021 $62 That's pretty ridiculously high Yeah, and that's the truth So in my opinion Bitcoin wasn't ready To be used as a currency Sorry, just wasn't Lightning comes along and changes all that Now the real question is then Is lightning network only Is less than a penny Makes sense Well, how much does cash app charge Just for sending things around So cash app fee Sending money Via credit card is 3% Instant transfer Is between half a percentage of 1.75 Which could be expensive I mean spending $100 or $1,000 Investing zero from cash Buying or selling crypto Two to 3% And then ETM withdrawals Two to 250 So if you're using cash app Just to send and receive And using lightning network now For less than a penny That's huge Well, we'll make it Extremely huge And more importantly Because if it branches off Outside the US Gets in New York Also the UK And third-world countries Now that would be a game changer Anyhow So that's it for today So look You know, a little bit long A lot of things going on As you can tell we are Out of El Paso Sitting here in Houston We'll be back in Puerto Rico soon We'll do a meet up But that is it for today So we'll appreciate your step And stopping by Hang with me If you like today's video Give it a thumbs up I'll consider subscribing A lot of things we talk about A lot of things that are sensitive That's it for today So thanks so much I appreciate it And I'll see you on the next one