 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network Not quite as fun of a week for college football this week as we've had the past couple But still some really big games with power five teams trying to remain undefeated in Somewhat tough matches. We're gonna break down if they can do that with Austin Swain today He'll be swinging by to break down his thoughts on those big games and his favorite bets over at fan dual sports book This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as I am each Wednesday by Dr. Ed Feng find his work over the power rank calm Ed Interesting week on tab for this week. We got some pretty interesting games one of the big ten with Ohio State Penn State How you doing entering week number nine? I'm doing well because Michigan State is so bad that they didn't even make your list of games to talk about this week How is that that wind total feeling for you? I mean didn't it hit already? I think you might be okay. Yeah. Yeah, I don't I don't even know I haven't looked And so you're saying that the mood Nan Arbor is not pensive entering a well over there 22 and a half point favorites It's a little it's always a little pensive when it's a rivalry game. Everyone's trying to remember that but I Don't know. It's a night game. It'll be interesting Those are always fun at least like that makes it at least if it's not gonna be a good game a fun game Either way as mentioned we are joined here for today by Austin Swain You can find his work over at number fire dot com check him out on Twitter at ace Wayne Three Austin does write a lot of the college football betting guides for us over at number fire Austin first time We've had you on the show here though not to talk UFC which I was I guess I think like I dropped the ball on that We'll get you on to talk that at some point as well. How you doing today? I'm good Jim II absolutely I'd love to talk UFC had a huge card last week But hey, we're talking about alumni's rooting interest. I went to Colorado to see you buff So I'm just glad they want to game it all this year I've already pretty much walked in that I'm gonna catch under three on the buffs when told my my alumni's been in a better state Yeah, man, we're gonna ignore mine as well We're just gonna pretend that one doesn't exist although quarterback changes Maybe that'll help things out on their end But Austin like I said does a lot of work for us over at number fire also does some podcasts for us A UFC DFS podcast and other stuff over at number fire as well find them on Twitter at ace Wayne We're gonna pick Austin's brain about this week's slate and get you ready for some college football in week nine in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We have podcasts up here every weekday on covering the spread and also on the fan to YouTube page We talked about the world series Astros versus Phillies with Bob Friedman pitching into yesterday get his thoughts on that and also ran through what my numbers I'm saying about NFL week number eight and ran through three bets I like there that's up on the podcast feed right now our NFL Week eight preview coming up tomorrow with the prop preview coming on Friday Also, the NBA season is underway It's the perfect time now to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers getting no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's it to $1,000 back and free bets if your first bet doesn't win Fandall has all your favorites bets from the money line to point spreads to player props You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay Plus with live betting you'll get updated odds on games that have already started the Fandall sportsbook app is safe secure and super easy to use So download Fandall today to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 make every moment more this season with Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and in select states First online a real money wager only refund issued is non Withthrob of free bets that expire in 14 days restricts his apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in Arizona 1-800 next step or tax next set to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 over as a ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1-800 9 with it in Kansas 1-800 522 4700 or KS gambling health calm in Louisiana 1-777 770 stop in New York 1-778 Hope and wire text open wide in Tennessee call the red line at 1-889-789 in white oming 1-800 522 4700 or in West Virginia 1-800 gambler dot net let's dig in now to week number nine in college football at Austin get a First overall overview of your process because we've not had you on the show before So I kind of want to get a read on how you do things how you play things on the college side of things What's the process look like for you before you place a bet on a weekly basis? So I a bulk of the work that I do for number fire as I'm sure you've seen is in the daily fantasy realm So I have a very I call it my super sheet that I have updated with market share concerns You know Different types of quarterbacks and pro players and profiles that I have in it for each different offense So when I look at a matchup what I typically do is I take that information about which teams are explosive Which teams are successful at running the ball or passing the ball and I convert that to basically kind of an efficiency grade And what I do is I use then ESPN SP plus analytical rankings which are fantastic by the way as well as I use a combination of yards per play metrics and things like that to Determine how much success each offense should have in the game either running or throwing and I can adjust that based on Strength of schedule. We'll talk about strength of schedule a little bit later Where where if you're 60th in the country in yards per play, but you've been facing a bunch of killers and a bunch of great quarterbacks It's not that it's not that bad as far as a defensive unit is concerned So I typically try to project offensive efficiency because that's what I'm good at I'm not as good with the defensive stuff and really I feel like if I can get to a spot where I feel like one team Is going to have the advantage against the other teams defense both rushing and throwing the ball I really like that as a spot that I can target now Where I really struggle with my betting process is spreads like larger than like 17 Because if I'm looking at someone's offensive efficiency, I know Michigan is going to roll Hawaii both running and throwing the ball I don't know if it'll be by 49 points or 56 So that's kind of where I might be a little bit useless, but it's worked out. Okay, so far Yeah, the good thing is like a lot of the spreads we had this week are not that large They're still like decently up there, but not quite that bad Are you betting totals then mostly for yourself because that I think when I think of like Overlap with daily fantasy you do a lot of DFS work remember fire It's a lot of deciding which games will shoot out and that is like having a totals based mindset Do you find yourself 50 more that direction for the most part? Um, yeah, I I definitely think I definitely think it can help But also it depends on what number I get as far as if I feel like a team like last week in a bed that didn't hit I felt like Kansas State was going to have an advantage both efficiently as far as their defense stopping TCU's Russian bass offense And as well as Kansas States Offense having success running the ball against ECU that didn't hit obviously Kansas States quarterback went out early in the game last week But I feel like I can take a side if it's like a three and a half point spread I was on the Kansas State money line last week But yeah, I do a lot with totals as well as far as looking at seconds per play and past play percentage and what if a team is going through and they don't pass the ball very much and Either going into a difficult brutal rushing matchup then they're gonna have a hard time moving the ball And so I'll take a side there, but you're right. I I definitely prefer totals in a lot of spaces Excellent, let's look at some games for this weekend We have big 10 matchup with Ohio State going to Penn State Ohio State's a 15 and a half point favorite total about 60 and a half Ohio State looks good and surprisingly good on the defensive side of the ball Penn State, you know had nice weekend that last weekend. What do you see in this game? So the Ohio State's been a really difficult team for me to be because most people would agree They're the best offense in college football as far as efficiency you could argue running and passing as well It's really hard to see how far they separated from the rest of the pack though because I still generally favor these big spreads I feel like these defensive stalwarts can cover them now I took Notre Dame plus 17 and a half to start the year against Ohio State They covered clearly Ohio State was rusty in that game Smith, Najiba got hurt But then I took Wisconsin plus 17 and a half in Columbus and that was a disaster They were down by 30 something at half-time with the alleged top 10 defense in ESPN's SP plus analytical rankings and Wisconsin is a good defense But that's how dynamic Ohio State is and so it's really difficult for me to take a look at this spread and see how much Ohio State would actually impact as far as what they would look like in terms of covering this spread But what I keep coming back to in this game This is really Ohio State's first competitive road game of the year now hypothetically competitive again We had the Wisconsin snafu, but you look they're traveling to College station and you have Penn State is allegedly that daunted number nine defense again here Absolutely, I think Penn State their past defense their ninth in yards per attempt as far as past defense is concerned That looks to profile well to stop Stroud to stop Smith, Najiba to stop Ibuka, but I don't really know I I kind of have a lean toward Penn State I would take that side I think this is a good number if you want to back Penn State because you are getting more than the two touchdown buffer And this is a situation. We really haven't seen the Buckeyes in so far this year You feel good enough read actually want to bet it or is a more so lean for you on that side That's that's more of a lean now now if this number got closer to like 17 Just like that magic number I had against Wisconsin and Notre Dame. I'd be looking to actually wager it Okay, what's read on the total in this one? I think that's also pretty interesting given what Ed was talking about that's with that Ohio State defense there They've been fun. What do you think about that 60 and a half right now? See there their Ohio State defense is better than expectation And I think that's where we get enamored with their offense when looking at the total like this I think Penn State's gonna have a hard time scoring the ball here They're rushing offense hasn't been what we've seen in previous years and Sean Clifford He's been really up and down he said some games this year We set turned it over multiple times and then he's also had some games where you threw an excess of 300 yards It's hard to tell what you're going to get you look at some of the other opponents that Ohio State has faced They haven't been able to really move the ball and Notre Dame's quarterback situation a mess Wisconsin's is a mess Iowa barely can generate first downs at a time here I think Clifford is better than that in there at home here But I still would probably lean toward the under because I think Ohio State's defense isn't getting enough credit in this spot as far as Their ability to potentially shut down Penn State's offense here Yeah, for sure. I mean, I feel like if they're a Penn State fan, you're kind of like, oh The only thing worse than Sean Clifford is not having Because they were bad when he was out last year, but You know, there's there's like a clear ceiling there There is and he's really missed John Dotson who's coming to the NFL caught a few touchdowns with the commanders He's really missed Dotson who had a darn near 40% target share last year now They've been spreading it out Tinsley Parker Washington. They've had some big plays But none of them have emerged as that clear go-to guy for Clifford on his first read So let's move south a bit to talk about TCU at West Virginia TCU is a seven and a half point favorite here total is 68 and a half for this one TCU has passed every test thus far they played Good football, but you know West Virginia they they've had some clunkers But they can play pretty well as well spread still relatively tight here seven and a half So what's your read on this one TCU at WVU? I So I think from my world from like the daily fantasy world I look at West Virginia's individual parts of their offense and I think there's a little something there You know, they upset Baylor a couple of weeks ago JT Daniels is a veteran quarterback that's had quality pat outing so far Bryce Ford Wheaton's gonna be an NFL guy on the outside But when you look at this offense at the end of the day There are hundredth in yards per play and I have a concern there against a TCU defense that against the past and the rush By most categories is a top 50 defense and they have played well TCU's defense hasn't gotten enough credit for what they've done to Oklahoma State or to a Kansas State even though We talked about the injury earlier But TCU the only problem I have with this game and I still would wager on TCU in the spot This number is not a good number But in some ways I think the books hang seven and a half here and you look at that number as Maybe I should take TCU because I have a hard time seeing how West Virginia's defense slows down TCU Whatsoever Kendra Miller's averaging over six yards of carry Quentin Johnson's basically unguardable. It's gonna be a probably a top 10 12 pick in the NFL draft And then Max Duggan can use his legs He's used his legs in key spots to pick up first downs as well And so if his passing efficiency isn't there like it wasn't in the first half against Ohio or Oklahoma State excuse me then Duggan can absolutely contribute with his legs So I don't know how West Virginia's defense holds here The only problem is Morgantown is a brutal place to play We saw that with Baylor that result made no sense at all And I think I'm looking at the over in this game as well Just like I was in that game between Baylor and West Virginia on Thursday night a couple weeks ago Where when you kind of get in this spot where West Virginia has all these talented pieces They will be motivated that crowd is gonna be rocking I think this is a spot where West Virginia's offense can come out to play But I also thought that last week and they got throttled by Texas Tech So a little bit of a tough sell on on the Mountaineers But I still favor the over and I do like TCU even though I don't get the best of the member there If you had a pick and it's the so the total on the side in this one, which one do you feel better about? I would go with I would go with the spread It's just because I'm very concerned about what happened last week because Texas Tech is a below average pass defense I expected Daniels and I don't know if I'm missing some key offensive line injuries or something because they just did not show up Last week in Lubbock. And so I'm a little concerned if I'm missing something as far as What would what would keep us Virginia's offense from being as efficient as we saw it a couple weeks ago All right. Let's move down to the sec. We have Tennessee at excuse me Kentucky going to Tennessee Tennessee's uh minus 12 and a half Point favorite uh really interesting spot right because they played Alabama last week played Georgia next week Yeah, I don't really believe in trap games, but uh But it's an interesting situation. We have a total of 63 and a half. What are you saying in this game? I Interesting because I kind of feel the same way I don't really believe in trap games in college either because Tennessee if they take a loss this weekend It's a big deal as far as they're probably Well set back in the college football playoff rankings But so I think they are going to be focused here and my first impression when I saw this spread It's a good number to back Tennessee as far as you're looking at expected expected value if 12 and a half You're still keeping 13 and 14 in your range of outcomes as far as if they won by 13 or 14 points That would still be in the Tennessee column. So really this is a key number 13 and 14 Especially in college where extra points are on more automatic Those are key numbers and it hasn't moved there yet So I think this is a good number to support Tennessee and really what I look at in this game Kentucky during this latest stretch where they beat Mississippi State last week where They were door-to-door with Ole Miss. They've really leaned on their star running back Chris Rodriguez, Jr. here He's handled quite a few of the carries. I think 66.7 percent of total rushing attempts and that includes Will Leviss who will take off and run as well They have run through him now Tennessee here. You look defensively their rush defense is outstanding There's seventh in rush yards per attempt allowed I know it doesn't feel that way because of what alabama did to them But they've been phenomenal on the rushing attack and that's what really bottled jaded daniels up a couple weeks ago I really like the balls at this number because I don't know how kentucky's going to score I just don't trust will levis because this is a play action offense. They You look at their pass rate just a 45.2 percent pass rate here. That is 86 than fbs They start with Rodriguez and work from there now you ask levis to be off script to carry the offense as well Tennessee's pass defense isn't bad either. So I don't know if kentucky's going to have an easy time putting up points in this one Um, I I really typically don't like to lay double digit favorites either college or in the nfl It's just a huge number But I think because you still have 13 14 in the fold I would lean Tennessee in this side But when it comes to the total here 62 and a half points, I love the under in the spot It's my favorite total that we've talked so far because when I because of what I talked about I think kentucky's going to have a hard time moving the ball here to kentucky's defense, by the way Also top 50 in espns sp plus rankings So a little bit underrated in that regard and 62 and a half is a really lofty total But tennessee plays so fast that that really totals with them can get out of hand really quickly Yeah, the uh, as mentioned the total there 62 and a half The under is minus 110 right now at vandal sports book for kentucky at tennessee And so for the board for you first austin and see What else you like for week nine? Where else do you see in value for this week over at vandal sports book? So um, I want to start with a thursday night contest We actually have a good thursday night slate a couple of ranked teams in action here utah visiting washington state polman is a sneaky tough place to play out there in the middle of nowhere in washington And they have a really good home crowd I love the cougars getting seven points in this spot as a home dog When I look at utah, I have a hard time trusting them with a number this big for a very specific reason It's their defense. They're 111th in yards per play now. ESPN has given them a lot more credit because they have So far face ucla they face usc, but they're still 42nd It's not that dominant kyle wittingham defense that we're used to and washington state's got a lot of interesting pieces cam ward Uh, their sophomore quarterback kind of a dual threat guy can make plays on the run They were within a score of organ. They probably should have beaten or again If not for a late notice bow mix hail make bow mix hail mary. I like their ability to move the ball here The jenkins the backup running back because nakia watson is hurt has actually been more effective yards per carry So that might even be an upgrade for the cougars in this spot And then they have so many weapons. They have eight different guys over 10 yards per attempt with at least eight targets So there are a lot of different guys making big plays here. They're a hard offense to defend I think in this spot. I love the cougars getting seven points on thursday I think that one's pretty interesting too. Uh, so washington state plus seven the one that austin likes there Ed, what about for you? Where are you seeing some value this week in week number nine? Yeah, so I want to get back to this kentucky at tennessee game. Um My numbers have this closer to tennessee by nine points. So that includes, um About a point that i'm giving kentucky because they are coming off a buy from last week and tennessee clearly did not have a buy last week And also the other thing is that my numbers are probably underrating kentucky a little bit In the sense that we'll leveston play against south carolina and they have a brutal bad Uh game there they lost to a south carolina team that I still don't think is good Even though they beat texas a&m this past week Are you saying that snaps off of guys heads are not super predictive in how telling us how good teams are? Yeah, probably probably not but uh yeah, so Anyways the way my system works. I mean a kentucky team with will levis is probably better than Where my system has them at this point and yes, so the past offensive numbers don't look good for kentucky Will levis is still considered an nfl prospect. I'm not sure that I'd buy that but People who know a lot more than me are I mean have them in the first round of the next nfl draft And tennessee really struggles on past defense. So I think all those things conspire For me and maybe maybe a little bit of like you probably didn't get into your preparation Like you usually do after just an amazingly emotional win over alabama um But that's the smallest factor. So I I do you know this game was tennessee minus 13 on sunday It's come down to 12 and a half. I think it's going to come down more. So I like kentucky plus 12 and a half here I I mean I and I totally agree with you if any if any reason The mississippi state result was shocking to me mississippi state's past offense was humming on all cylinders and will rogers They got nothing doing against kentucky a couple weeks ago. Um, I believe that was a couple weeks ago at this point They didn't get anything going in an air raid offense tennessee very similar system They they play much faster They will mix in more of a run game than mike leach's system down there in mississippi state But it's something i'm gonna i'd be concerned about to back tennessee for sure Yeah, are we considering the fact that tennessee is wearing black uniforms this week? I feel like that's a bit underrated in what we're discussing Uh, they're wearing black helmets with the with still the orange. Uh, they look good ed Do your numbers factor that in or no? The numbers do not factor in the the color of the helmets Nor do they factor in having a game between alabama and georgia Yeah, yeah, they did have the one game against tennessee martin. I think it was between there too, but kind of like uh A pseudo bi-week. Yeah, a pseudo bi-week not really a bi-week and they did love 24 points in that game. So, you know Maybe there's some credence to that for sure Um, but they do a georgia next week. That is still a very big game. We'll see how that one plays out It's gonna be a fun game either way Yeah, they're gonna be a pretty big dog in that game Probably they're gonna be a big dog in that game. You know, I mean everyone's kind of talking about tennessee and alabama rematch No, no, no, we got a long way to go. They got a long way to go before They get back Yeah, there's a fascinating setup here where I believe you could have one loss with each in that tennessee Uh first went out alabama sec championship and then georgia sec championship loser And then deciding which teams go into the college football playoff from there Good luck because now tennessee's got the head to head over alabama who would be the sec conference champion at that point So wild scenario that could be wait. What's the scenario? So so I believe so technically you would look, uh tennessee would then Uh, tennessee would then I I'm trying to remember this is this is what you shouldn't you shouldn't uh Aspower what you saw on twitter alabama would then get back in alabama wins the west makes the sec championship game They take it on undefeated georgia tennessee's one loss comes to georgia next week And then alabama would be the title champ challenger But tennessee's got the head to head wins So it'd be very interesting to see who would argue for that game there. I mean, that's honestly probably the most likely scenario yes Right, which is a doomsday scenario and uh, yeah, well, I wanted to let you know jim I've also boosted jaylin hyatt's fantasy outlook this week five points just because of the uniforms I didn't look I I didn't look I boosted his projection just based off the halloween uniforms Uh, I did use him in that alabama game for my dfs lineup because of your write-up on number five I want you to know that his five touchdown game Um, I thought I was gonna have a very good night and then the the late games really kind of skewered me But it was still profitable. So, um, check out those over at number fire and check out all of austin's work over there as well That is austin swain check him out on twitter at a swain three austin me appreciate the time Good to have you on here for the first and not the last time we'll talk some usc eventually as well And good luck to you in week number nine Thanks. Good luck to you guys too. Thank you very much appreciated ed is on twitter at the power rank You can find his work over the power rank dot com in the football analytic show ed what is going on for you this week over there Adam turnoff on the podcast. He has worked as a bookmaker pro better What was that covers recently moved over to right angle sports? So a great conversation tons of nfl insights get that at the football analytic show Wherever you get your podcasts Alrighty and ed's work is over at the power rank dot com and as I said, he's on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis once again Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also up on the fandal youtube page We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down week number eight in the nfl This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network