 We've still got another week before the year's final major. We got the open championship the British open They prefer the open championships. That's what I like to call it But we had another week before that major coming up. So this week we've got It's a pj tour event But it's not the most exciting field by any means that does not mean that just because the field itself not quite as exciting as we could have doesn't mean we can't get excited about the John Deere classic because That's payout the same sort of sort of winning Fandle lineup So there's still plenty to talk about plenty to break down. So welcome on into the Fandle PGA Q&A for this week I am your host Brandon Godulla. I'm the managing editor over at number fire calm I'll be talking about the fields the betting odds on Fandle sports book the daily fantasy slate on Fandle My win simulation model whatever else you want as well because this is a Q&A format So I just hit up the comment section on YouTube at Facebook Twitter or Twitch If you have questions for this week's event the John Deere classic Start as I always do looking at the field from a betting standpoint just to get a feel For who we have this week and as you can see here on Fandle sports book Daniel burger is the favorite at nine and a half to one followed by Brian Harmon at 15 to one Russell Henley Sung J. M. Both 17 to one Kevin Shrillman's plus 1900 and then it's a drop to last week's winner Cam Davis hopefully, you know, I liked Cam Davis last week. Hopefully, you know You you got in on some cam Davis as well But walking Neimanus, you know came through but I think that the most appealing Aspect for Davis this week as I know back-to-back winners are super rare But it's a really similar setup to what we had last week in terms of the field and the scoring Expectations which I can get into but you know that then we kind of have a drop-off right after Cam Davis You look him Alex Noren then things start to fall off a little bit quicker. So it's really a top What I guess sit five who are shorter than 20 to one and only two more For seven total under 30 to one so pretty wide open field outside of Daniel burger And I know last week we saw Bryson the shambo same thing applied to him He was the favorite. He was the highest salary golfer on Fandle. He missed the cut However, Bryson is a little more volatile Than Daniel burger in terms of scoring burgers one of the most consistent round around scores that we have on the PGA tour and actually Relative to this field. I have Daniel burger as more likely to win Around 8% that I had Bryson last week to win at around 7% so for me I'm not necessarily looking at last week and saying Bryson missed the cut as the chalk And so we can't play Daniel burger I think that's irrelevant Daniel burger really good play really consistent pretty much green across the board From a statistical standpoint, but that's what we're looking at for the top of the field Got some comments rolling in a hello everyone from Mr. Jackie moon on twitch. It's up Welcome on in get your questions ready and hopefully you can learn some more about PGA this week as well Comment from Charles on Facebook first off. Let me say thank you for hosting this for sure I like hosting this I like to share all the data that I have all the findings that I get Because you know, I might not always have the right answers But hopefully the process that I lay out can lead, you know, everyone else to The things that I might be overlooking. I like to break down the course things like the scoring The depth of field to see how volatile me we might have things but that doesn't mean that the only plays that I Would recommend or the plays that I talk about so hopefully that kind of stuff leads you in and then hopefully that Let's you kind of figure out the tools that I did that I use the the process that I kind of have and go from there So for sure, thanks for that comment Charles How is burger a plus 950 from Charles well, I Don't know if that means I don't know if you're high or low on him I think plus 950 is very fair for Daniel burger honestly Because he is the most likely golfer to win in my win simulations, which I can pull up real quickly Just before I break down the course. So I go to my sim table. So I have burger around 8% likely to win It's not what you need Him to be at, you know, plus 950, but I don't think it's that egregious and then if you look at him statistically There is not really a reason to be concerned with Daniel burger statistically The best adjusted form over the past year So my data adjusts for fuel strength and recency. So more recent rounds are weighted a little heavier Than than rounds that are almost the full year ago best tea to green golfer. Just one of the best ball strikers And in adjusted strokes game off the tee and approach or one of the best putters and best birdie maker. So While he's a little overvalued from betting standpoint, I think he's the best process play on Fandall So I'm gonna I know I have some more questions here But I want to break down the course because I think that really dictates a lot for this week with the course itself and the field itself So if you look on data golf and their field strength table The John Deere classic comes in as one of the weakest fields that we've had all season. The average golfer is a negative 0.7, which really means The average golfer in this field is almost a full stroke worse than kind of like a world average for You know the the cornfairy tour the european tour the pga tour So we're looking at a pretty weak field overall, which you can tell by looking at the The just the field itself we get a grasp on that based on how the win odds shake out what what the names at the top are But that really means that we're going to have a little bit more volatility this week and As we can see with these historical scoring Uh, so we didn't have this event last year, but in years past we see this the winning scores go pretty low dylan fratelli won at 21 under Uh, michael kim 27 under uh, bryson at 18 under Ryan more 22 under and then jordan speeds at 20 under So we all we almost always see golfers flirting with that 20 under which is what we saw last week We've seen this a few weeks recently And so anytime we get low scores that leads to extra volatility um Because then I use this example a lot but Just the simplest way to think about it is if if a par four is birdieable for more of the field Uh, that's going to level the playing field because the best golfers don't just automatically Eagle par fours because they're better. So it really comes down to like that par four scoring that the best golfers kind of lose their edge Uh in Events where scores go lower. Uh, we can look back at last week and look at the leaderboard and we see A lot of that same thing and then speaking of of that we kind of have like a double whammy here Where driving accuracy is more important at tpc deer run than it is on your average pga tour course driving distance Not quite as important so what that means is that the the Shorter hitters are not necessarily like disqualified from who we should be considering using so that's going to naturally bring more players Into relevance. So we have the you know, both of those things working This week where the best golfers kind of lose their edge because it's it's easier to score and we have The more accurate hitters still in play even if they're not long So from that perspective, we have a lot of golfers in play for this week So I've got a lot of a lot coming through from itch Mr. Jackie moon. I don't know enough about golf. So I Usually just do small bets on it. Yeah, I think we talked last week. I mentioned top 10s top 20s. Maybe some smaller bets on outright Very appealing. You can also do some single entry tournaments on Fandle single entry is always my favorite for just about any sport Especially golf because it gives you an advantage to be a little bit different for example last week potentially Fading Bryson, even though I liked Bryson In the event he missed the cut which he did And was on more than half of all lineups then you get a lot of leverage So you don't have to go too hard at pga to kind of get some leverage. I think from a You know single entry standpoint just being a little bit different or again those top 10s top 20 markets Can be really profitable without being sort of all or nothing Question from you know how I do 42 42 JJ spawn JJ spawn not a name I expected to hear Because I have haven't looked at him I'm actually gonna pull him up Yeah, um on data golf True strokes query. So if we look at him over the past six months 111th in this field and their their version of adjusted strokes gained Again, I haven't looked at JJ spawn in quite some time. So I'm not seeing a whole lot here 30 second at the rocket mortgage 47th at the travelers So I do think that those are interesting because those two courses are somewhat similar in the sense that they're both Shorter to average length courses with small bent grass greens. So you kind of have that Overlap. So I'm actually putting a little more weight into super recent form Then I would otherwise but For me, I'm not there with JJ spawn Just because the the longer term sample is not good enough And a few recent rounds don't necessarily outweigh A larger sample that that tells us otherwise. So for me, no JJ spawn, but I do kind of see the point with the recent made cuts For for him a question on YouTube from Clint who are my value picks? So my value picks this week are kind of Plentiful in a sense just because I don't usually go super value heavy But there are a few names that stand out specifically because the Low 9000 range doesn't do a whole lot for me. So I'll throw up a few names that I do like Steve striker is one His sample is not going to be super complete because he plays a lot on the champions tour Roger Sloan If this will populate Who else am I liking? Adam shank actually I'll leave it at these three, but I'll name a few others Steve striker so He's actually in his past five champions tour events He's got two wins a runner up a seventh and an 11th If you look at him on the PGA tour Which I'll do on data golf because this is kind of Interesting because I mean he's 54 years old, but striker has won here Three times in a row 2009 to 2011 And if you look at the, you know, we don't have that granular strokes gain data from him on the champions tour But we still see him, you know gaining some strokes for the most part But whenever you have like a seventh and you wait it for the field strength of a champions tour event You're not really going to gain strokes But even with that we see some some really good numbers for him With these wins and then what really kind of makes me feel good with striker this week Is looking at the iron play in the PGA championship when he gained Almost a stroke per round one suggested for field strength Same thing at the Honda missed the cut at the players, but that's notoriously volatile And he actually lost strokes putting so it's a little bit abnormal for him, but I think striker very interesting Roger Sloan as well Good iron play. I haven't been the 77th percentile and adjusted strokes gained approach over the past year adjusting for field strength and recency Good bentgrass putter 81st percentile there not the best birdie maker necessarily, but That's enough for me at 8700 to like Roger Sloan and then Adam shank kind of has the right profile as like a You know, I always hate calling pro golfers punt plays, but at 7700 There are going to be some some some concerns some red flags. We do see him sub par in terms of just his Overall adjusted strokes gained average relative to the like a world average, which is what this is trying to to show Per round but the thing that Makes me feel good with someone like taking a shot with on adam shank Is that he does struggle around the green and that's not super relevant in a birdie fast because If you're relying on your wedges to get up and down for par You're not making enough birdies to be relevant anyway And so at that point it's like well, you know, if the other things that point us to shank such as the 82nd percentile ball striking in both of those stats The pretty solid putting or at least not terrible putting, but it's better on bentgrass Like that's the right kind of profile. It's going to keep that the the wedges are going to keep a salary down But once we get to an event that does let him make some birdies with the ball striking in the putter That's whenever we can take a shot there. So I think these three are probably some standouts For me. I also like pat pares. Me too. Pereira has three wins in the corn fairy tour Missed the cut last week with some solid data gained about half a stroke I think in total or one stroke t-degree Didn't putt very well But those are some of the names that I'm looking at most from a value standpoint um Jackie moon, uh, I like to make the cut bets. Those are always fun Even top 20s top 30s like that It's it's fun and it's a way to get exposure without having a be all or nothing Which I always get a little out over my skis with with going for those outrights Um Oh, that's a comment from ed from facebook henley and harman. Uh, yeah, so Henley is super appealing to me and so is brian harman. Harman has a win here But henley here, uh, the best long-term adjusted irons in the field hundreds percentile there. Um You know 69th percentile off the tee, uh, which is nice enough, uh for this week But what what these two golfers really benefit from is the setup this week where distance is not a must Uh, and that's where they struggle that they get red flags and driving distance gained over the past 100 rounds According to fantasy national but where they do pick up strokes is by being so accurate And that is going to keep them in contention for this week So daniel burger is my favorite process-based play for the week It's not really a stretch to say that that's the case But for me rustle henley is the number one pivot. I have no issues with brian harman I do like seawool kim as well Um, virtually, you know, like just lots of green dots here, which is what you want to see and Minimal red flags again, and it's forgivable in these areas of of driving distance gain. So seawool kim as well Uh, you know 98th percentile adjusted teeter green So we have a lot of ways to pivot away from daniel burger And I know it's kind of weird because I was talking about how the field strength is pretty weak overall And it is and we have one Favorite with daniel burger, but these other guys are they they can make a case like you can make a case for them Whether it's a bet I like seawool kim at 28 to 1 I like rustle henley at 17 to 1 even if my win simulation model might not be showing a ton of positive value or Actually actually showing negative value But you can make a case for these guys. So that's what I was saying at the top of the show where it's not the most exciting field I know we're going to kind of have our eyes on the open next week, but There are ways to kind of exploit that from a daily fantasy standpoint If we just want to fade daniel burger think that he might have his his own eyes set on the open For next week, but you know, it's a pretty solid second tier I kind of have burger in his own tier all things considered but the second tier pretty strong as well, but I'm in on henley and harman so great call there ed Question from dj from facebook. What are your thoughts on jonathan vegas patin kazire and zack johnson. So I'll pull them up On the finder here I'm not going to spell jonathan because I still cannot I try I can't I cannot commit it to memory kazire and zack johnson So I love I'll start with with johnson because he's my favorite of those three We're looking at all these guys in similar salary ranges similar win odds as well The best kind of value from a win odds versus salary standpoint would be vegas Because he's 36 to 1 on fandal sportsbook and only 9800 with his salary unfandled But I'm gonna start with with johnson because he's my favorite of those three Former winner here a really good results for for zj at a course like this And the in a pretty good golfer once you adjust for the fields he plays in and we has missed four cuts recently Three of those though were at majors, which is more forgivable And that's why you can't just look at the number of made cuts because they're not all equal And we know that zack johnson at this point in his career He's not irrelevant in majors necessarily, but he doesn't really have the distance 13th percentile in this field, which is you know saying something So it's not even like better than 13th percentile in a field this week So he's not long with the t so we can get for kind of forgive those missed cuts at majors He's more accurate than he is long, which we know But the irons have been good 82nd percentile and the short game You know the best long-term putter in the field some of the best wedges Which I know wedges are not going to make birdies, but it's never bad to see a green light In any of these key stats For the week great on bent grass with the putter. So I like zack johnson Both as a bet and on fandall. It's kind of a building block For this week because dire not a whole lot of issues really good with the approach For him, which is why he's been relevant for a while great birdie maker Which you can also say about vegas great putter as well So it's a good recipe for birdies if he can just hit fairways, which is possibly the issue 14th percentile If he can hit fairways He's got the the irons working for him and he's got a good putter Not necessarily on bentgrass He's takes us a little bit of a step back, but it's still a positive putter on bentgrass gaining around 0.11 strokes per round for me vegas is Kind of always in play in a in a birdie fest because of just this number here Uh, and he can gain distance. He's not necessarily going to gain fairways. He might But he's he's long enough to gain strokes off the t And he the green overall the the irons are solid So, you know, he's always going to have some red flags specifically with the putter But he can also kind of overcome that And make make up for it with making birdies anyway. So um I don't mind vegas. I'm not quite there. I actually at a similar salary prefer Hank Libiota There there's going to be kind of a good amount of overlap overall virtually identical adjusted Overall strokes gained for them over the past year But a better putter is libiota Better irons for him as well and just fewer questions with the short game And a little bit more of someone who's going to benefit from playing tpc deer run where the distance is only going to get you so far um And so You know libiota doesn't lose so much off the t so I prefer libiota, but I would never ever talk anyone out of vegas At a place where we need to go low. So I think I'm all caught up um on questions and comments So i'm going to jump over now to my win simulations and just talk about Who's most likely to win based on my win simulations which are put together from A little bit of a course adjustment, but primarily every golfer's long-term adjusted Just form so it's their stroke skein adjusted for every field they plan and adjusted for recency So the the more recent rounds are weighted a little more heavier than the rounds almost the full year ago And this is what I get for the week daniel berger 7.9 percent likely to win in my simulations ryan harmon 5.3 russell henley 4.4 percent so um You know, we had that pointed out, uh, I think it was ed Yes, henley and harman. So there's your henley and harman rating out just behind berger in my win simulations now It is a pretty sizable gap, especially for henley, but We know that henley has the irons now. They're not necessarily rating out as good Expected values, but I don't always only let my model dictate my decisions because that assumes the model is perfect it's very likely not um and you know, sometimes you get tempted by Opportunities that you know, you might see you might say like There's more reason to like russell henley than the model even suggests which henley almost always is Undervalued by the betting market, but in a field like this He's getting a lot of love kind of by default So for once russell henley not a positive expected value, but we do see that with steve stricker almost with zack johnson And with the gim so I already talked about stricker and and johnson former winners here stricker done it three times in a row but they fit dug gim is Really tempting just because he's so good t-degree, but the putter's really bad so he needs to get To like baseline level which he has been on bent grass and that's kind of the saving grace for this week Look at all these green dots for him in birdies 82nd percentile irons 96th T degree 97th Red flag and putting but again it gets better on bent grass For this you know for this setup and we saw him gain point nine strokes last week on bent grass But the t-degree wasn't there for once which was a little bit disappointing But I like dug gim and so does the model for this week Question from mr. Jackie moon on twitch will bubba watson ever win a major tournament again. I hope so I love bubba He's become one of my favorite golfers We know he has the distance I don't I would probably say no But I would really love for him to get another Because he's really fun on and off the course. I know that not everyone feels that way, but He's really come out a lot more and has spoken about His perception of things so I hope so I would guess no um, but I want him to I can say that much Uh, john daly is my all-time favorite john daly is A little bit before my time. Um, I'm aware of him from a meme standpoint, but not necessarily uh from watching him Uh golf himself, but I am trying to go back through the archives more Learn a little bit more about golf history Um, but back to the wind simulations here, uh, lucas glover rates out positively herald varners of fair value Sebastian muñoz has missed a lot of cuts, but Makes sense to do well at a course like this just because he can make birdies I'm not interested in charles howl really chest really dany mccarthy long shot here at 140 to one I think fine So this is a perfect example uh for uh, mr. Jackie moon Where this would be like a top 20? instead of an outright for me So i'm in on mccarthy to a degree, but not necessarily for an outright For this week pat perez. You can definitely talk me into I like him and roger slone in even value But i'm going to put perez because he's a good value play As well for me gonna, you know, he's he's just to that point in his career where we're looking at You know, can he hit fairways and still contend at tpc deer run? Yes Uh, and that's the case, you know, did he get this week? And then also he's gone on bent grass for the week where he's a very good putter 93 percentile and bent grass putting over the past 100 rounds and the irons are still there. So I think perez Um, another good value option for this week Uh question from revokes on youtube yonas blitz another name I have not Looked at in quite some time He is over the past six months 105th in data goff's true stroke skeined riding kind of a hot putter for him 47th off the tee. Let's see the the event by event for him This is a great tool by the way their data goff's true stroke skein query And then you can just look at an event by event Uh catalog for them for each golfer lots of missed cuts here Uh 36th of the so again to kind of broke the string of missed cuts with two made cuts at courses that should play a little bit similarly Uh to what we have this week just from a distance small greens bent grass standpoint So I could see it from that case, but for me the long term always wins out over the short term So i'm not quite going to get there because the long term is a bit too bad with the iron play If I ever see bad iron play over a larger sample I just don't have a whole lot of interest because it's golf. We have a ton of other options So for me, no no blixed For this week another question from brian on facebook kramer Cosmo kramer or kramer hickok So I like hickok a bit because he's good to you to green over the past six months That question mark does come in with the approach play But the recent sample of course is going to show Some spike weeks here some some good finishes obviously that runner-up at the travelers Which he did with really good putting and that's a concern you don't want to see Well, I don't want to say you don't want to see good putting you want to see good putting You don't want to see good putting mask poor iron play and that's kind of what we see and then You know 58th so another made cut again that those that course Core the kind of corollary courses. I think you can make the case and also the Charles Schwab would fit that Criteria as well. So I like hickok just fine He's not someone I'm prioritizing but I see the case for it and You know the iron play Not quite as good as I want it to be long term, but I do see the case overall So I'm going to bring on Jim As he's logging on because he's going to be talking about the mob slate But mr. Jackie moon is asking his women's golf on fandals sportsbook often Who's going to throw this throw some down on michelle we if she's so golf. Yeah, she she just had a she just came back As a kid I thought she was going to be the goat of women's golf. Yeah, um, they're the there are Sportsbook odds whenever there is an lpg event On fandals sportsbook. I've been running some simulations myself for the lpg tour trying to do some adjustments for field strength now it's Unfortunately the data availability for the lpg tour is supposed to get a lot better soon But right now it's very very very basic. So I'm looking more at just round by round scoring and trying to adjust that so Uh, it is there for majors. I will be posting my Wind simulations on number fire calm. I can talk, you know, once we get major weeks for the opga, but We do have it on fandals sportsbook and I'm honestly Getting a getting to be a pretty big fan of the opg tour because they're smooth. Uh, they're they're smooth swings Just really really engaging to watch. I don't know if jim's coming on. I give him the green light. There we go Okay, uh You didn't mention you're gonna have stuff for the olympics too for women's golf and stuff like that. That's true. Yeah, um It's gonna be a great olympics for both the men and the women Playing the same course, which is cool. Uh, the women will play the week after the men That's always fun. Uh, the rare opportunities that we get that I'd love to see the women play like a lot more of the men's courses, but you know, uh, honestly opg a golf is Super engaging. Yeah, I think the olympics should be a lot of fun I think that's going to be exciting both on the men's and women's side I think we'll have some probably dfs for that I'd assume so We'll be talking about that at some point in the heat check but Brandon before then Did you get the memo that the clippers lost or No, because you're wearing a clippers hat and I feel like I am I like breaking some bad news to you now or what's What's going on here? So a few things here one, you know, I'm not a clippers fan What Do you know I'm not a clippers fan? You know, I wear hats we talk for two minutes every week How would I know this about you come on? So, you know, I'm not a clippers fan Do you not have like a sunset the suns have great colors? Why don't you have a sunset? I just I only have so many hats. I gotta I gotta win more from you Which by the way what I was getting to is I won this hat from you for beating you for our season-long pga contest so I don't know why you actually even like drew attention to it because You knew I was gonna you were trying to get one in on me Hand me an L. But I was not trying to hand you an L. I was trying to inform you I thought that you didn't know like I mean, it's not like you do any content for the NBA Maybe you didn't know I don't know Well, I mean I'm trying to help Look, I got I got I got I got hats all over the place. Do you have a buck sad? No, but I have a buck shirt, which I don't like it's too too gray and washed out. It's like weird I don't have anything here. I've got nothing I have no I have a Miami Marlins Jean-Carlo Stanton jersey that is orange that might pass for sons. Does that count? I don't think so because they're different In theory, but like they're both orange. So I feel like it's potato potato I used to have a churro shirt I could wear I used to have a Charles Barkley sons jersey way back on the day Was it the purple? I might have been white. Okay. Well work on it. I'm expecting it for next week a full Like maybe son's hat and then the buck's shirt. I think that that's what I would have to request person now that I'm, you know Putting in requests for your wardrobe I mean you can send me some stuff if you'd like I'm not going to because I know in the bobble hat this year just like I did this past week That is brandon cadoula check him out on twitter at cadoula 13 Also, if you want more pga talk check out the heat check fantasy podcast by searching for the number fire daily fantasy Podcast feed thank you to brandon back with us once again next week on tuesday for the open So that'll be a lot of fun for then but for right now Let's talk some mlb dfs. No matter where you're watching you can get your questions in For today to get set for this slate of mlb dfs Whether you're watching on twitch youtube facebook or twitter get those questions in We'll take them live here on air to get you set for tonight's 14 game main slate of mlb dfs And this one to me Is all about jacob de graham. We were on board at the graham last week even though He was facing the braves. It was a second time Uh, he was facing them in a two-star span. He was on the road, but he was still really freaking good And now he's at home against the brewery. So to me my mindset is Plug into graham first. Actually, let's just do this. Let's just do this I'm not going to take him out for the entire show. Maybe I will maybe I won't either way We're going to put him in there just so we know what we're working with 2900 left to work with and alvin mentions on youtube that all the teams we want to stack for today have their lineups out How great it is a great alvin. However The rangers lineup kind of sucks and so it's great that we know who they're using But it sucks because they're using Not ideal guys. So let's pull up the rangers lineup over here and show you why I am Upset distraught. I rate about this. Not really. It's fine. They're all big leaguers, but I think Nate Lowe is great. We can put Nate Lowe in there. We can feel good about him Then if you look at the rest of their lineup, they're only like a couple guys I realistically want to use. I don't want to use Brock Holt. His iso versus righties is like 103 That's No, I don't want that Nate Lowe good adolis Garcia. Good Joey Gallo. Good John Hicks had a 165 iso in triple a and that's fine and he's been really good in the majors But he's batting fifth. He's a righty. We prefer lefties against Jose Oranje I would have preferred Jonah Hyman played once again for today. It's not it's Jonah Or it's uh, it's John Hicks. Also if we use John Hicks, we're burning our utility slots I want Lowe in there for sure. So if I decide to go with Hicks here at $2,400 I've got that and it means that if I go with Gallo and Garcia, we're at 2700 left I need a second value stack in there. So I still like the Rangers I still think especially if you go with like a three player stack of Lowe, Gallo and Garcia, you're sitting pretty good And I feel good about that It's just not as good as I was hoping it would be I do want to look at David David Dahl 153 iso. It's not Great, it's not terrible though. Um, you know, it's it's lower than Hyman who I was hoping would be in there again But you know, it can work. He's batting six. I think he's $2,400 Maybe you go with him over Hicks to leave yourself the extra flexibility But like either way, it's not ideal the way the lineup broke So Alvin, it's it's good that the liners are out. It's bad that the Rangers is not ideal So we'll see we can find some value elsewhere, but the Rangers. I'm disappointed. I guess is what I would say I'm not mad disappointed in the Rangers lineup for today. DJ is Seth Brown worth a look for the Oakland A's Let's check out the A's over here Brown doesn't always play so I want to see their lineup facing from Reval Des I don't like using guys facing Valdez because he allows like a negative fly ball rate. It is 15% Over his seven starts that's we're not getting a lot of upside there So Seth Brown, uh, not a guy I'd be looking for towards for today Kyle with the Rangers lineup out. Who are you prioritizing staying away from not a lineup? I've used much this year. So I appreciate the help. Yeah, good question. Kyle as mentioned They kind of suck. Um, so I'm disappointed Uh, I mentioned like if I were making a list of guys, I will in theory use Low is there Garcia's there gala's there. I will use Hicks in theory. I will use doll in theory Let's check out Andy Ibanez doesn't play every day. So our sample on him versus righties is not Super expansive. Uh 48 plate appearance is a negative 26 w r c plus 067 iso He does put the ball in the air Let's check out the expected stats here for Ibanez because it is such a small sample uh and see What we're cooking with here Expected 278 woeba 078 iso In triple a he had better numbers a 295 iso we can work with that But 28 years old Just coming to the big leagues now the projection system's not super optimistic about his iso overall And that includes a number versus lefties not just righties Don't really want to use Ibanez Um Nick solak, let's see what his numbers are versus righties 136 iso kind of fuleffa batting ninth. He does get steals, but like It's rough. So if I'm making a list of guys, I will use or I'm okay using I would say Low Garcia gallow and then If I have to Hicks and doll but like everything else is just gross so kyle I wish we could have gotten hymen white in there because both those guys are guys that's willing to use They're not there though, and I'm disappointed. So They are lower on my list michael on youtube says brandon said stacked the fillies tonight and brandon says my fillies Face and jake arietta. I agree. So brandon We won't fight this time. I'm on board with stacking the fillies for today And as alvin mentioned their lineup is out part of the reason we want to stack the fillies for today Is that the weather pretty decent for hitting for today? It's not like a An insane situation for hitting but wind is out 11 miles per hour wind being out of wriggly is always good 85 degrees 59 percent humidity That's always great. So I will definitely be on board with stacking the fillies for today. Let's pull up their lineup over here We've got uh sagura batting lead off now. They did move um, okay, so no Dubell Herrera today ria muta second harper McCutcheon huskens Deedee's in there travesty and kowski is batting eighth I don't like using guys batting eighth in the national league team because they're right in front of the picture And that does cap upside quite a bit. So I think that this is a fine lineup. I think that uh Gregorius definitely works not having Herrera in there Is a bummer because it's one less guy. I really actively want to use on this team But let's check out the fillies here and see What we can build with them We're gonna keep the grom in there because I think I can stack them pretty easily with the grom for today Let's go over to the fillies and oh, let's refresh this because why not? We'll pull up the lineup in there Deedee's gonna be in there. He's been great since he came back from the injured list So no concerns about using him off the injured list. So Definitely gonna put him in there first also fill shortstop, which has been a tougher position In general, we're gonna go with brice as well Then we're decided between mccutchin The two catchers slash first baseman and sagura Boom is not really a guy I tend to use versus righties. Let's double check that though to make sure I'm not writing him off prematurely Alec bone versus righties. Oh 77 iso. No, thanks. Hoskins 214 mccutchin 146 real muto 190 So based on that it feels like it would be Hoskins real muto mccutchin the ranking to those guys Let's pull up the salaries here on them Real muto is $3,000. We have Hoskins at 32 mccutchin at $2,900 So I think we can go with probably just the the top two guys here if we do this stack with the fillies We get harper in there 2675 is not super easy to work with but I think we can make it work As long as we're willing to make some uh Some consolations at some point I will note that the fillies probably will not mesh super well with the rangers just because We want to use the value play as a catcher slash first base of the rangers We want to use Hoskins real muto On the fillies if we take those guys out and decide to go with mccutchin instead of them That gets us to 2,800 left. We can go with hicks and go with low Maybe you can get either Garcia or gallo in there that could work for sure but I think that the The rangers work best as a three player stack the fillings I can get to four to depends on what your second stack is with them So let's go back to these two guys here Segura numbers versus righties a 103 iso does have five stolen bases. There's at least a path upside there that could work Um, let's check out jen kowski's numbers. Maybe I can justify him 24 plate appearance is not a big sample. Let's uh, pull up his actual player page here and dig a bit deeper into What he has done so far this year. Let's uh, Pull that up too And when using the miners not a lot of power, so I'm pretty skeptical of the power he has shown So far in the majors the expected numbers good across 30 playing appearances, but it's just 30 plate appearances so Not really looking to go uh with jen kowski there So I think this is probably my favorite four player stack in the fillings. It does leave you a bit shorthanded But um, I want to get gregorius and harper in there for sure They are the top two priorities here then ranking the others. It's hoskins real muto mccutchin Then segura On the fillings for today Jackie says is the yankees lineup out. Uh, so the yankees are I think they're a late game, correct. Yeah facing jessus sheffield. They're a team that i'm willing to stack for today No lineup for them because they're on the west coast Uh, but if we take a look at the projected order for the yankees, let's do that over here Oh, no, they get lopped off Tragic, so let's just go here a little shortcut here and we'll go with the yankees as a team And we'll check check out the projected order luke void is $2,800. There is A healthy amount of value there. I like that Uh, geo or shella $2,800. I like that as well That definitely works me gala and duhar um He wasn't hitting for a ton of power initially especially his numbers versus lefties to open this year when he first came back up Were pretty bad. Honestly, he was doing better versus righties at that point But obviously platoon splits Are fluky in small samples. Let's uh refresh these here and see What a duhar's done versus lefties now with a larger sample and duhar versus lefties 117 iso 30 fly ball rates If he hits it a good enough spot in the order I can get behind that obviously Gary sanchez uh depending where he bats would work as well. So I think the yankees are a place you can turn for some for some Value for today. Uh jackie also reminding everyone Um that dinger tuesday is today. You can always bring up homerun props. I'm down to top talk homer props Uh, feel free to pop them in the chat if you have a number and we can talk about that batter for sure So yes, dinger tuesday do not forget over at fangirl sports, but jonathan is dominik smith a good play for today Okay, so we got the mets going up against Brett anderson anderson's a lefty. I don't tend to use dominik smith versus lefties, but I don't want to write them off. You know, let's check out the actual numbers here and see If that sentiment against smith is legitimate, uh, 71 plate appearances versus lefties 159 iso 24 fly ball rates Or sorry, I made 19 percent fly ball rates. No smith's probably not someone I would use for today Just because I think we'll have better options Lefty and lefty is not a spot where I tend to go At dominik smith jackie is asking for the best value picture for today I think it's two and it depends on Your style of play if you are someone who wants safety Go e and anderson. He's facing the pirates for today. Anderson's a very good real world pitcher not quite like a he's not in the kyle hindricks Tier yet, but like he's in that mold or he's a really good real world pitcher And sometimes I can overlook that the reason I'm not super high in infamy a ceiling perspective is because In his eight starts with less uh forcing fastball movement movement his strike area is 24 percent The pirate's not a super high strikeout team Anderson canna pop games So i'm not like saying he has no ceiling, but I think that is odds of having a ceiling game are lower So if you want safety go anderson if you want if you want ceiling I kind of don't hate the idea of using john gray the numbers I have for john gray in here Or is two starts is coming off the injured list and then the reason i'm going at those two is because his velocity is up in those two starts 3.20 skill interactive er a 33 strikeout rate. The roof is closed for tonight at chase field That's a good thing for him to the diamond backs. Obviously not the best team offensively this year 83 w rc plus 25 strikeout rate. We can use pitchers against that so It's very risky to use john gray. He was not that great before he got hurt, uh, but I think the numbers since he came back, you know, you had 10 strikeouts in one of those games Obviously a good matchup versus milwaukee, but arizona's a good matchup too So I am okay with using john gray for today. It is not safe. It is very scary But hey, we're gonna do it anyway. So you want to value play I think that john gray is the one I prefer based on my play style but I know some people not as Willing to take on risk as I am. I love risk personally if there's upside to boot I think there is with john gray. So to me john gray is the best value play But even anderson is the safer route if you want to go that way Mateo besides to grom who do you like just went through that uh there I think that anderson and gray are the top two guys and a lot of that is because the other Good quote unquote good pitchers in the pool for today are in really rough situations So let's go over here and check out the pitching pool for today I love carlos rodan. He's amazing. However, he's facing the twins for a second consecutive start the There's potentially rain in the forecast Kevin ross seemed to think that there would be a potential delay for this one late starts would be fine Late starts are okay for pitchers, but there's risk there. So That's kind of scary Nathan the evolving not the biggest strikeout guy on the road facing a lower strikeout team We've got framer valdez facing a good team erinola on the road facing the cubs He tends to have pretty extreme home road splits chris bassett facing the astros has to be rios facing the white socks Pablo lopez facing the dodgers. It's a lot of pitchers in tough situations. So I think for me I'd rather spend down if not going with the grom for today And that means going to anderson and going to john gray I think louise castillo is a consideration Is what I would phrase for him dj Would you stack against spencer wackens on both the more in which marlins are safe to stack against gonsolin First with the gonsolin one. I would not stack the marlins roof should be shut for today gonsolin Gets enough strikeouts doesn't let up a ton of balls in place. I'm not looking to stack the marlins for today As far as the uh, the blue jays one wackens is probably gonna go like an inning he went inning on July 2nd, I think it was the first time he pitched. He's like a 28 year old guy He made his big league debut. It's a really cool story to see him up in the big leagues now But I I'd expect this to be more of a bullpen game than a spencer wackens start for the orcs He's starting but I think it's more of like a bullpen game and the the orils bullpen is not bad The numbers I have here are their uh active roster numbers a 4.17 era. It's not skill interactive era It's uh era for a bullpen game 4.17 era 26 strikeout rates Uh 10 walk rates not the worst contact profile. So the blue jays have a massive implied total for today It's like 6.66 because they are Flirting with the devil apparently and that means they're probably going to be very popular If I had to guess I am likely to be underweight on them. Oh, it's 5.96 That was higher than that. Anyway, I'm probably going to be underweight on them relative to the field Just because I think the blue jay or the orils bullpen is better than that And I expect that walk ins will probably just go like an in here. So uh, they had a bullpen game It was a game that lakens started. I think last week at some point against the the astros They don't let up three runs across nine innings. So, um I'm okay being underweight on the blue jays for today Just because I I respect the the orils bullpen a little bit more than that Alvin, would you rather a three player stack from cincinati or texas? Let's pull up cincinati's lineup here and see what we're cooking with there I got india back in the lineup stevensson leadoff castellanos Suarez are you saying as a kino talan equine against the lefty Kyle farmer batting eighth I think I'd rather go with the reds there Chris boobage definitely a guy wanting to stack against the numbers I have on boobage are since he Rejoined the or joined the rotation the first time back in may 5.03 skill interactive era a lot of hard contact not enough ground balls to cancel that stuff out Obviously the reds better versus righties and lefties, but still I think they're a good team to stack for today So let's pull this up here and build out a red stack quickly I'm gonna go with stevensson first because we can save a lot of salary there Ari said is a kino talked about this this morning I am less concerned about him leaving the game when they have a dh than when they're in the nationally no Double switches and stuff like that. So we go with stevensson in a kino. That's looking pretty good there Let's put in nick castellanos for the upside and probably a honey of suarez would be the Fourth guy of the stack. It's between him and india. Let's check this out here and see Which guy we should prefer between those two I know suarez still strikes out a bunch versus lefties, but I believe there's been enough power there if me they feel good about it 136 iso Lower than I thought but india's at 105 So I will prefer suarez between the two also a little bit lower salary, which does helps Let's go suarez here at shortstop that gets us $2,900 left We can probably make that work at the philly stack So I think I'd rather stack the reds straight up and I'd rather stack them for a three-player stack And feel pretty good about that. Uh, so that's where I'm at alvin Give me the reds over texas for today Brandon question. Can I add a conditional formatting on that google sheet? No I am here to burn your eyes and there will be no other way And you will like it. That is all I have to say also in case anyone wants it Here is tomorrow's numbers a lot of starters still not known But if you want it there are to note tomorrow's numbers in case you want to screenshot that With the conditional formatting as it is just for brandon's eyes Let's talk to jackie moon talking stanton harper or deedy for homerun relative to odds I'm guessing deedy be your best bet there. He's been outstanding since he came back from the il so I think if you're a decide between those guys, uh, if you're actually betting jackie, I would say Go with deedy gregorius there should be a good option from a uh betting perspective. Also, I'd check out Tyler stevensson and r.a.c. It is a keynote as guys who might be a bit undervalued In the homerun prop market for today Clint is asking meryl kelly question mark. I think this is at least worth asking So i'm glad you asked clinton. I do want to dig into him a bit deeper. So let's pull up meryl kelly's numbers My goodness. I keep I don't know if i'm linking to the wrong person or if google's is just, uh Jacking it up here. Let's see is this kelly that's still shohei otani. Did I like link to it wrong? Whatever anyway Let's go to meryl kelly manually the old person way actually typing it out here as opposed to the links that are supposed to be in the Sheet. I don't know if I just mess it up or what but anyway Let's go to meryl kelly. The numbers I have on kelly are over is past seven starts with fewer sinkers Okay, so we'll go over to his game logs here And This is okay. So the sinker usage down starting on may 31st So let's go to that and let's actually look at the game logs here He's not faced colorado in that time did have a five five and seven strikeouts Those are pretty good in the last time out is against san francisco Really good offense versus righties, especially when you put them outside of san francisco is a second time facing him as well He's been pretty good. So honestly clinton or clint. I don't think that's a bad idea I would consider meryl kelly, especially because I don't think there's any like surefire no brainer other option today outside of digram. So I think that kelly works. I probably won't get there myself But I think that he is definitely worth consideration $8,800 is a little bit much But given the matchup, I think that's okay. So clinton. Yeah, I think that Thumbs up for me and meryl kelly if you want to use it michael our texas philly and since natty's sort of top three stacks texas has been Jettisoned off the face of the planet based on their lineup. So they're gonna be let's go with Philly one since natty 2 Do I I guess I should probably put the blue jays above them The braves lineup isn't bad. So I'll go braves three Rangers for yankies five blue jays six So some shuffling around there michael just because the rangers lineup was so bad I like the philly's lineup despite the there being no audible odubo herrera And I do like the Braves lineup for today as well. So the rangers got moved down. I'll put braves third rangers fourth based on the line Of for today. Let's talk to jason. Hey jim. Hope you had a great fourth did thank you very much jason Hope you did too. Um, I believe a blue jays had on so maybe happy canada day belated to you jason Who knows? Uh, do you like the philly's today? Yes, very much. So they are my top stack as of right now I think that they are tremendous. Um Jackie moon asking about nick metone for the philly's not playing for today. So I would omit him Let's talk to austin. What's up, austin swam over on twitch. What's up? Stop austin. How's it going? Just curious what your thoughts are on the gnats for tonight? I know you were down to stack ends weathers last week, but is their offense Too bad on a 15 game slate. You phrased it correctly. Their offense is bad, which is why I Didn't have them higher. I think that they work Because as you said weathers is someone I was one of the seconds last week He's still if we include that start. This is past seven outings still lets up plenty of impactful contact The other reason I was not super high here is the weather. It is 67 degrees in san diego Whereas outside of the rangers in the yankees game Most other games we want to stack have warmer weather for today So those are the reasons why the the the nationals were not as high on my list But I think they're worth considering for sure They get bumped out with no schwarber. I know it's a lefty, but I do still bump them down with no schwarber So no schwarber bumps them down weather bumps them down The fact that they're not that great bumps them down their consideration for me been not super high on my list But yeah, the way he phrased that is correct and in line with my thinking diffuse How do you feel about david doll in rangers stacks? He's kind of like a second tier guy in those stacks I think that both he And and hicks are like that that for me where I think that low Garcia gallo are the core plays of rangers stack and then doll and hicks are like the others to consider for me So I prefer to go with a three player stack and just focus on the good guys but I think that doll and hicks are at least in the discussion for me than those rangers stacks Jerry it's a jerry maybe I missed it, but uh rate these stacks for me at lanta texas in miami Who are your favorite for today and how do you feel about ian tonight? I like ian he is my Top safe value play not my highest upside value play Uh, so ian anderson to me very good consideration on board with him for sure I would go at lanta above texas based on the way the rangers lineup broke out Wasn't super enthused with that. So we'll put the rangers behind the braids. Uh, the braids lineup here We've got uh freeman. We got the big three up top. That's always good riley heredia swanson orland rc actually I do want to mention him quick because I haven't looked at his numbers in the big leagues yet, but I remember he was on like this just Disgusting tear in triple ice. Let's actually check out what he's done since he came back up here Uh, or came up, I guess at the first time with the braves specifically and let's see Let me show you his triple a numbers first because they're pretty fun All right, uh minor league numbers and triple a 13 home runs five stolen bases 11% strikeout rates What? He's hitting like Osvaldo arsia my favorite player of all time got to get an Osvaldo arsia shout out in there if we can uh, orlanders is coming back up only two games, but Not a lot of strikeouts. That's good See the contact profile hitting the ball pretty well. So orlando arsia I think if you're looking for like a value play Um, he is minimum salary I think that if you want a guy who can save you a lot of salary make it a lot easier to get to the grom That's your guy orlando arsia right there is someone I am abundantly willing to use for today. Let's see what awesome rally is $3,000 and We put a cunha in there. I don't know maybe not 2850 we can make that work. So I think the braves are a good stack I love them I think that rc has a great way if you want a a min salary type guy fully on board So I love the braves jerry. They're third for me behind the fillies in the reds, but I could I think they're in the same tier as those options for sure. So I like the braves a lot Miami again. I'm not super into them because gonsolin just doesn't let up a lot of balls and play This is his five outings 31 strikeout rate 18 walk rates, uh You know, I just don't think there's enough juice there for me to feel super good about uh, stacking the marlins there Let's talk to dj didn't india get hurt. Yeah, but he's back in there I think he missed like one game potentially. So he's back. Uh, it's a good thing And I think he's $3,300 for today. So I've stood for suarez over him due to the Uh upside but he's in there. He's a consideration for sure Jackie never misses a ding or tuesday. He'll be bedding. So yeah, jackie is on board I think if you're looking for like Because it matters like the overall number of home runs in the game So if you want a game that will have a lot of home runs overall Um, let's see here good hitting weather in I mean probably honestly like the The cubs game nola's not as good on the road as he is at home. So I think you could justify going with uh with that game I think that's one to consider. So check out deedy I think it's probably an optimal guy for a ding or tuesday type promotion Brad top two pitchers to gromp one by a mile and then anderson or john gray too depending on whether you want safety Anderson or upside and john gray dj is asking, uh, the white socks and twins might not play Yes, that game is a risk of the games in tonight's slate That's the one that stands out as being a risk in terms of whether or not that game will play kevin roth says It could be a delay So be cautious if you want to use rodan or barrios and I would not stack either team just because Both the pitchers are pretty good despite the fact. I guess actually it's cooler for today I think it's 70 degrees in mini apples is like 95 yesterday So a little bit cooler for today weather in the area. So I'm probably just going to be avoiding that game. Let's uh, we get a good good, uh Good clearance and the weather and I can go with rodan as a pitcher That is all that I have for today But as you know tonight is going to be a fun night because we've got some nba back on the board here to talk about it Is erin dolan erin is going to take your questions live on air to get you set for some nba the bucks and the suns We're gonna get all of her thoughts whether you're watching youtube twitch facebook or twitter get your questions in now for erin dolan So let's bring her on now to talk about game number one erin happy game one day to you. How you doing? Good, how are you? I am excited. I am excited to see how this game goes. Yannis upgraded to questionable It's a lot of intrigue leading up to tip Yeah Are you thinking yannis will play or no? Yes, I think yannis will play and I think this is kind of all a little hoopla before game one to kind of get things a Little confusing for betters Okay, so we're assuming that yannis plays. What are your thoughts in this game under that assumption? Under that assumption, I do think the suns will win this game But I think it could potentially be a lot closer of a game than we thought and the first two games They played during the regular season They it was only a point that the suns had won both those games by so I think it could be a lot closer than we think Alrighty, well erin have fun tonight. Enjoy that and enjoy the q&a. Appreciate it. Yes, of course. Have a great day. Thank you. Appreciate it Hey guys, what's up erin here ready to answer all your nba questions? So I was fumbling a little bit at the beginning there with jim because I unfortunately couldn't hear for like two seconds But anyways, I am excited to talk some nba with you guys as you know, I love The nba. I feel like I've said nba 50 times already on this stream But let's get to some questions and talk about this match up and talk about All the different lines that are available right now in the fandom sports books We're going to get into the nitty gritty of this and again, I'm going to answer as many questions as possible So all you have to do is just comment them below and I will answer them It's mr. Jackie moon already saying erin. I need some luck tonight. I think we all Need some luck tonight. We always need luck in terms of betting. All right. Let's look at the lines So right now the suns laying five and a half So this line was as high as minus six and a half It kept moving out because yannis was doubtful for game one As you know, he just became questionable malika andrews broke that news and the line immediately moved down to suns Minus five and a half as for the total open to 17 and a half and continues to move up It is now at two 19 and a half more money in bets coming in on the over there And as for the money line the buck's moving down slightly to plus one at 98 suns minus 240 I wouldn't be betting on that but currently when looking at where the money in the bets are coming in it seems that 85 percent of the money and bets are on phoenix money line So i'm not sure who's betting that maybe you're putting it into a parlay I hope you are because it's not a great value at minus 240 as for the spread We have 77 of the money on the phoenix suns and 61 of the bets on the phoenix suns to cover That five and a half or six and a half of course This is constantly updating and so are the lines so sometimes it takes a little bit to catch up But nonetheless, that's kind of where we're seeing money right off the bat for this game and where some of the lines are So excited for that You can also bet on the series which we'll get into player futures Boost as well as many other things and a lot of different markets that are available when you have a game That is going to be in a championship type series There are going to be a ton of markets that randomly become available one for example that I noticed today Just to kind of show you an example is Devin Booker series point average brook low pest series point average Those are two very very random markets that probably weren't available in the last couple of series that we have seen So you can kind of start seeing some things becoming available as well as top point score most total rebounds most total assist And of course the most traditional nba finals mvp, which we've had up for a while now And it's kind of funny we had you know the lakers the clippers and that's all available when this market was up And there were so many players now It's definitely definitely dwindling So we'll get into some of that but first just wanted to kind of talk about the series Because I was doing some research and it's quite interesting that either way In this finals history is going to be made because one player In particular has only been in the finals before j crowder. You only played six games with the miami heat a year ago There isn't a single player On either team that has won an nba championship ring That is a kind of wild thing to think about also the phoenix sons have never claimed a title in their 53 season history They're back to the finals for the first time since 1993 was not born yet Meanwhile, the sun's first team to make the nba finals after missing the playoffs in each of the previous 10 seasons And the bucks they won the nba championship in 1971 having have not been back to the finals Since 1974 so it's pretty wild both these teams Were pretty much unexpected to be here because as I mentioned we had the lakers this year We had the clippers this year We also had the brooklyn nets and as we know the sons were the number two seed and the bucks were the number three Seed and kind of the trail they had to get to get here It has been quite interesting for both of these teams But I definitely want to have you guys commenting who you think's going to win Just in general and how many games because I feel like that's a big thing I've been seeing on twitter all day is bucks and six bucks and seven phoenix sons and five sons and six seven Etc, but it seems like the odds makers are really thinking that this series Is going to kind of go the distance and we can see that When we look at the correct score series total games and the series spread So right now sons minus one and a half plus 118 And then for the bucks plus one and a half minus 144. So I think this is going to be a tight series I think you can also find some value. Let's say if you think bucks and five for some reason Five games plus 240 and it ends up being sons in five games It doesn't matter because you bet this just in terms of how many games not who won it in that many games If you definitely think this is going the distance plus 190 is still great value at seven games plus 200 for six games So again, you can always as I mentioned already on this show find different value throughout the markets If you like I mentioned think one of these teams is going to win in five or six games That's better value plus 240 and plus 200th and let's say betting on the series spread for example We also can bet on the series correct score. That's available Also series correct score after three games. This is pretty interesting bucks That's obviously a heavy favorite 12 to 1 But if you think the sons are going to take the first two games at home Milwaukee bucks will come back in game three be able to win on their home floor. That's also still plus money There so I think that's a lot of great value But let's also see some questions guys get to some of them. Mr. Jackie. We've been saying bucks in seven You could take the bucks in seven like you just mentioned That's plus 600 right now Very great value if you think that's going to go there and the distance plus seven games plus 190 So right before the series starts guys a lot of plus money and then after tonight Odds are going to shift pretty drastically. That's usually what happens in the series Let's go to the player future zone. Look at some of the value. That's on the finals mvp So as you can see we have chris paul devin booker both on the suns and we have yonis plus 500 two time mvp chris middleton also behind in drew holiday both in the bucks As for eight in 24 to 1 brookalope has 65 to 1 mcow bridges plus 12 000 I would just write these off completely I would even write off middleton in holiday because I think if the bucks win yonis would win The mvp award now as for the suns this one kind of stumps me a little bit in terms of chris paul or devin booker It really depends on who plays better in this series I would think they would give it to devin booker if he's You know scoring the most points and really leading the team in terms of scoring But at the same time if chris paul is doing points rebounds and assists and kind of Playing just as well and assisting the team in that way Plus his age and everything factored and I could see chris paul also winning it So it's kind of tough there But I think for the bucks if you think they're going to win it yonis I would bet as the finals mvp at plus 500. I think that is great value there And then you can also NBA top point score devin booker minus 125 you can bet into that you don't want to bet eight and minus 340 You can bet into chris paul minus 180 for the most assists. That's also just not the best value though I always kind of talk about taking plus money wherever you can and then as for the series point average Let me find what these Guys are averaging booker is at 28 and a half. He's averaging 27 this post season He averaged 25 and a half against the clippers I would take under in terms of this But again, it's never really fun to bet on the under And if you think devin booker is going to have the most amazing series ever and he could win the finals Let's say six seven games with the suns and then lead the team in scoring Maybe you want to take over 28 and a half as for brook lopez. I feel like this is a very very random market Um, he is currently sorry Averaging 13 and a half points in this post season And I feel like that number is actually inflated because some of those games yannis didn't play in in the eastern conference finals And brook lopez had that one standoff game. So I think this number is inflated just a little bit I would definitely take the under 14 and a half if I was betting into this market Which is why you see for the over. It's still a plus money. I mean, it's not crazy. It's only plus 100 But still I think that's a market. I'd probably just stay away from or just take the under on that Let's get to some questions guys. Please comment them below put out a tweet right now Kind of get everybody else joining in here We can go through some of the player props that I like for tonight as well. Um, let's see Gotta love the player props so many All right, so let me go back into the game As always we have our same game parlay guys unique to fandal combine a bunch of stuff for the games Absolutely should be doing this and speaking of just a parlay really quickly This was kind of up at the beginning of the show a 16 parlay that hit yesterday $20 turned into Over 8500. That's pretty crazy. Um, great way to end the holiday weekend if you asked me Oh celebrate the fourth of july. Yeah hitting a six six leg parlay. I mean, that's pretty awesome Wnba in there Some mlb. Love to see the action I'm going to be so sad when the nba is wrapping up I'm going to be very very sad because it's my favorite thing To bet on the side from the nfl obviously and I'll be I'm ready for the nfl season If anybody wants to talk about that we'll be talking about that soon Enough. All right. So as for the popular ones be the typical game lines first basket score Wanted to kind of talk about the first half spread. So I was reading some very interesting stats this morning The suns are 26 and 13 against the spread in the first half as home favorites right now It's minus three and a half. It's a plus 100 I like this first half spread minus three and a half The suns also finished with the most road wins in the league Which we need to keep in mind and the only team that has done that so far has won the title In eight of the past 13 seasons. So the suns Good at home good at covering the spread also good on the road also good at covering the spread On the road as for the bucks They're they're technically they're mediocre during in terms of against the spread I'm not saying in general in terms of against the spread. They've always been kind of mediocre I feel like they do play a little bit better on their home floor, especially in the last couple series that we have seen But in terms of the spread of a walkie 25 and 20 straight up on the road this season Um, and as I just mentioned with the suns, they're 33 and 11 straight up at home 27 and 17 against the spread this season and I've been unstoppable basically at home So as for the first half, I like that minus three and a half. That's plus 100 I also think that this is a good bet in terms of I don't feel comfortable with anything in terms of this spread because I think yannis will come in this game And I think he will play. I don't think he will be 100 obviously because he didn't play in those eastern conference finals games And for a player like a two-time MVP not to do that. Obviously it was serious the hyper extended knee But since all the money and bets are coming in basically Right here on the suns That makes me nervous for a game one that makes me want to take the bucks plus five and a half I'm going to be honest with you And if you were able to get them plus six and a half kudos to you But I do like the first half spread for the sun sometimes I like to get in and out in terms of the spread I've said that multiple times in terms of taking the first half So that's what I would do in terms of that I'm going to butcher this name Mukul Pruthi. What's up? Um, there you go Mr. Jackie moon saying jay Crowder's birthday is today because of that. I'm taking him five plus threes Um, I did not know that are you sure it's today. I feel like I should check that jay Crowder Wow, it is today and as I mentioned he's the only player Who has played in finals games? He played six games of the finals last year with the heat So he's the only one with experience tonight. Maybe he's gonna have an absolutely dominant night Wouldn't that be unreal for them? That'd be so cool Um McHugh I'm gonna keep messing that up hasn't phoenix been amazing against to spread for first half props Absolutely. I just kind of threw out this stat. Let me find it again. Suns are 26 and 13 against to spread in the first half as home favorites, which is Pretty pretty impressive. It's mr. Jackie moon again saying the under could be in play today with so many guys new to the finals Absolutely. I love under two 19 and a half It keeps moving up and open to 17 and a half keeps getting bet up We looked at the money and the bets coming in on the over. That's pretty heavy money there Now the reason I would say that people are betting the over is because When in this position they're going to look at what happened during the regular season the suns and bucks played twice The suns won both of those games by one Point both those games flying over two 19 and a half, but this is the NBA finals The nerves like I mentioned, there's only one player who's played in it Nobody right now that is going to play tonight has won an NBA ring So the experience and the nerves and the jitters I can only imagine when everything is riding on the line I think this game will be an under game and since the line keeps moving up I always talk about this eventually You want to start betting the under and sometimes you'll see that so I like under two 19 and a half So I definitely think the under is the play for tonight. You never want to bet the under. It's not fun I understand that but I do think game one I could see things being a little shaky Let's see Johnny are got the bucks a plus six and a half love that great for you Yeah, this line moved literally right away down one point from minus six and a half to minus five and a half this morning As soon as Malika Andrews dropped that Yanis went from doubtful to questionable I think this is he's playing. I know he wasn't at practice yesterday He did a whole one-on-one thing with this coach that nobody was able to film or see what was going on I think that was a tactic. I truly think that was a tactic But then we all also the opposite when you take such a big Key player and throw him back in the mix. Sometimes there is a little bit of rust But again, this is the NBA finals. Everything's riding on this. Everyone's bringing their a game. So It's definitely going to be interesting. Um Boom Shakalaka said nerves. Ha ha ha. Yes. I did say that. Um Let's see. Mr. Jackie moves saying I have a hard time betting the under for any props I always want to root for players to have success. Yes, I am the same exact way But I actually do like some unders for props. I actually put this video on twitter right before I came on I made a quick video threw it up there as for props. I like for tonight First one. I like eight and over 11 and a half rebounds minus 104 on the fandal sports book He's averaging 14 rebounds Against the or excuse me average 14 rebounds against the clippers and also had 12 rebounds this post season So the fact that both those numbers already over I want to take him over for that As for Middleton under 26 and a half because I think Yanis will play in this and I think your holiday will step up Have some points and not have to rely solely on chris middleton. It's not like a game six a game seven I don't think he'll have one of those standout performances. Also. He seems to only really play well at home to me Um, so he's averaging 23 points this post season, but on the road. He's also averaging 23 So given that that's three and a half points less I just like the under on that one for some reason As for another player prop quickly that I like chris paul points rebounds and assists. It's set at 34 and a half I like the under minus 115 right now So he's averaging 31 points for excuse me 31 for points rebounds and assists But instead of looking at what he was averaging altogether. I looked at what he was averaging at home That's 14 points for rebounds nine assists obviously a much lower number than what's set at 34 and a half So I like the under for that Let's see. What are you guys? What else are we commenting here? If you jim from softball if you take tips from the books, I don't know what to say to you So a big misconception here about me is that fan duel gives me any type of picks or anything I do all my own research. I do all my own picks. They never tell me one thing. I look up The lines I go on covers. I look up trends. I look up where the money is and stuff So anyone that thinks that the books are calling me and telling me what to do that'd be a much easier job I'm telling you it really would be but that's not the case and not what's going on here All right boom shaka laka. They are multi millionaires Um, I'm assuming that's a comment right back to what we were saying before. Yes It's fun to be rich um Are the bucks your dog of the day today? So I was really really Wanting to take the bucks as my dog of the day and I was about to the line I just shifted from six and a half to five and a half when I was recording it So instead for my dog of the day, I went to the match for and chose to go With mickelson and brady because I thought it was a much more fun dog of the day He's playing brice and d shampoo and aron rogers And I was reading a ton of articles and everyone's like d shampoo is going to crush and sew his aron rogers But honestly, I was just like you can't bet against tom brady So I wanted to kind of just go with that as my dog of the day for today since I knew I'd be talking So much nba Um boom shaka laka. I feel like every time I say that I don't know if that's you're like I guess it's just the handle. Um, I can't believe sons and bucks are finals teams. It's so weird It is absolutely so weird. I was shocked when the bucks won game seven in the barkley center That was insane to me. I had no faith in them and during the regular season I talked a ton of smack on the bucks because they weren't winning or they weren't covering as much as normal and Now here they are in the finals and It went from the f is for fade to the f is for finals and as for the sons I'm happy for them. I really really like debon booker And I think this is kind of christus christ paul's last opportunity to kind of like change his legacy a little bit Um, but yeah, it is kind of crazy Um, it's jackie moon. It it's close like you said the overtime bet might be worth a few dollars. Um, this is always really high odds Yes, 14 to 1 no minus six thousand So obviously you would never bet the minus six thousand as for the yes 14 to 1 Maybe throw some five dollars on there, but I definitely want to be putting a ton of money on there Let's see in never since saying elana was giving away the game Man, I will hate The hawks. It should have been sixers versus the bucks. It should have been it's gonna really haunt me for a long time Uh, mr. Jacky moon saying for some reason I feel like it's going to be a 20 plus blowout No idea which team but that's just what i'm thinking if you want to bet in terms of that You could bet on Margin win margin 10 point you can go buy bands and if you really think that There's some good value there Let's see benjamin cruz. I like the over on brook lopez veteran player and won't be as pressured as drew a meadowlton I'm assuming if you're looking at props Player points. Let's see brook lopez 15 and a half it's hard for me To back lopez until I see this game one and see how much yannis plays and if he even does play if not obviously game two Everyone's going to be betting on brook lopez The rest of the team is going to have to take pressure off of yannis Hmm interesting take They could okay. Sorry. There's so many coming into my eyes now Jam from softball like you would admit anything anyways. You shouldn't even address my comment. Maybe they'll tell you that Um fandals not going to tell me anything because this is a live stream that I'm hosting and I'm able to pick which comments I want to talk about I don't know why everyone's so saucy. It's a great day to be alive We just had the holiday weekend. We had the nba finals. We have the match going on Getting a good mood, bro Is booker under three three is a decent prop tonight. He hasn't been shooting the three that well this season especially in the playoffs I'm not huge at taking The three points It's plus 122 Oh, excuse me under you want to take so you went two months plus made threes I mean that's minus 280 at that point. I just want to ever bet that This stream and never since sorry is not giving fandal credit I know on some of the streams that I'm on especially the live ones with rob lopez Sometimes he gives some of the credit out but currently on this one. I'm not giving that out It's mr. Jack kimono honestly thought yannis was going to be leaving after they got bounced in the playoffs this year may not anymore I mean, I think yannis there was a tweet that I saw I think was from 2017 talking about how he Is going to be loyal and whatnot and obviously now he's in the finals also Mike boonhozer obviously was getting heat the entire season also throughout the playoffs But now they're in the finals. I don't know what's going to happen to their coach as well so we will see In never since saying the sixers blamed ben for their mistake Sixers got a lot and lot of thinking and contemplating of what they're going to do next because they really Really need to figure it out, but we're not going to get into that Got anything for baseball today. Jim sonnis was on right before he was dealing everything with baseball keeping this strictly nba for now Let's see I think bobby portis is going to have a big game if yannis doesn't play much interesting take Yeah, I think obviously if yannis doesn't play his points props and stuff aren't available right now in the fandom sports book Let me see sometimes they'll have first basket score just for fun now More players obviously are always going to Step up we saw this in that first game that yannis didn't play in when based I think those four players had over 20 points in that one game So and then the conversation was is are the bucks better without yannis It was such a crazy morning after that first game that yannis didn't play in the eastern conference finals But obviously players are going to have to step up in absence of yannis kind of get those points up as well But he is listed as questionable and the line did move As for chris paul and debon booker, they're both going to have to really facilitate the ball well shoot Well, the bucks need to shoot better as well They shot better in the regular season that they then they have in the final So that's something that they're going to have to work on All right, we have about one minute left Super dave, can you check eight and points, please? I'm leaning towards over higher points He's at 15 and a half and he's averaging so far in this postseason. Let me see 16 So considering the over his minus 122, I like it. I always like betting on a and I think he's been great Um, so I think if you like that points at 15 and a half I think you should go for it and definitely bet it on the fandom sports book All right, last couple of 30 seconds here Actually, let's go through before we I let you guys go um Some of the odds boosts that are available for tonight's game So we have the three by two parlay and this is cool because now you can parlay this two three pointers made in the first and second half Two or more scored in the first three minutes of both the first and second half. Wow, that's pretty crazy chris paul to record 20 plus points in the sun's to win game one That's boosted a plus 200 sun's to lead at the end of every quarter versus the box That's a plus 190 all these available right now in the fandom sports book And as always we always have the promotions going on and if you were smart you would love The mba finals comeback bonus, um and the mba finals risk-free same game parlay you would Excuse me You would do the same game parlay because I think that's one of the most fun and unique things that fandal has going on Anything with the sgp you can add together and make your bets I gave my three prop picks that I like for tonight And as I told you like the under 219 and a half I also think there is a chance that the bucks can cover in this one But I do like the suns in the first half minus three and a half So that's kind of all the picks that I have for you today And then I will be back on tomorrow and we're going to bring on one of the traders Add fandal to talk about how the series prices have shifted after this game one Hopefully you guys win all your bets tonight I'll be talking on fandals fandals sports book instagram account probably like 8 30 to 8 45 I'll jump on there and be talking all things leading up to it probably talking about the last uh Blinds what they lock it at right before tip-off. So it'll be good. You guys can catch me on there It'll be on the fandals sports book instagram account page Have a great night. Everybody make sure to get on fandal play some of those bets and best of luck to you guys