 Jai Hind Dosto. Welcome to all in this particular session where we are going to discuss about again a very important consequential international affair news which is related to India-China ties. You know that China is a dragon which is sitting right next to the India's border. Or in that context, the greatest foreign policy challenge for India is how to tackle an aspiring hegemon which has a very rokes intentions which has very unipolarity mindset which is suffering from the Middle Kingdom syndrome where you have a highly ultranationalistic leader Xi Jinping who is on a mission to make China the global power by changing the status quo. So in this context, India-China relations has become a very important relation to ponder about. It is very much relevant from the exam perspective and also for the ordinary person someone should be aware about this particular relation. Hence in this context, I will try to make this lecture which is accessible for any section of the people who is preparing for the exam or who is not preparing for the exam. So keeping that in mind, I prepared this video so that this video is fruitful information and full of knowledge for anyone who is going to watch this particular session. So let us try to start with India-China relations. So India-China relations, you know that India-China relations is very complex. India has a huge historical relationship with China. India has huge economic relationship with China. And also there is a geopolitical contest also which is going between India and China. So in this context, the relationship considering its complexity, our honorable Prime Minister Modi at Shangri-La Dialogue says that no other relationship of India has as many layers as our relations with China. Because if you consider our layers of friendship with China, so it is not only limited to cultural aspects, it is not only limited to economic aspects, it is not only limited to international aspects, it is not only limited to the convergences which India and China has from the climate convergence perspective. There are many perspectives, there are many different layers in both countries' relationship and that is why this relationship has become a very complex relationship of the 21st century. So if you have to understand the cultural ties of our relationship, it starts from Fahian and Huan San and also the yoga which you find in somewhere in different form in China and in different form in India. So culturally, historically our relationship has existed century old, right? But this particular relationship which has historical ties has now come to a point which as per the ORF foreign policy survey 2021 says that US is our best friend, US is the most trusted partner and in the same survey it says that China is the biggest threat to India's security. In the same survey it has categorically stated that China has emerged to be the India's biggest security threat. See India-China's relationship in 1962 was the first war. After that, relations has been kind of a not very good but stable relationship. But today when there has been a conflict in 2020, China has violated all the international agreements, China has violated all the border agreements. So in this context, China in the current times has emerged to be the biggest geopolitical, geo-strategic threat for India. So in this context, we will now start our analysis between India-China. So if we talk till 1959, the relationship between 1959 was very good and what was the reason for it to be good? You know when in 1949, when People's Republic of China was formed, ending the colonialism and after that the Civil War in China, after that China was established in 1949. Then India was the first non-socialist country or non-communist country to accept China because you know what happened in Civil War when China was colonized, after that when colonial empires went away, then there was a civil war in China and there were basically two parties in that civil war. One was Chinese Communist Party which was led by none other than Mao Zedong and on the other side you had the KMT Kuomintang Party, KMT Party. So KMT Party was fighting with CCP, Chinese Communist Party. KMT Party represented to some extent the liberal values where CCP Party was completely anti-liberal, it was based on that communistic set of ideology. And there was a fight between the two, US supported KMT and Russia supported the CCP. In this context, the CCP won the war, Chinese Communist Party won because Mao Zedong enjoyed huge amount of support from the peasant of China and because of this, KMT had to run away from China and it went to establish itself in Taiwan. And that's why what we call Taiwan as Republic of China and CCP, what it said to China was People's Republic of China. So at that time, countries had the option with China to accept as the real China, whether to accept the Chinese Communist Party led by Mao Zedong as the real China or shall we accept KMT which has got itself established in Taiwan as the real China. So US went with accepting Taiwan. US recognized Taiwan as an official China. That means they recognized the Republic of China. But India on the other hand, accepted Chinese Communist Party, People's Republic of China as the real China. And why did this happen? Because you know that Nehru was there and Nehruvian socialism was there. We had a very good inclination towards Russia and Russia-China friendship was very good because both were communist countries and they both were fighting to arrest the influence of US in this particular region. They did not wanted capitalist ideology to perpetuate in South Asian and greater Asian region and that's why Russia-China also critiqued 30 years of friendship in 1950. So at that time, Russia-China relations with India were very good. Although India had relations with US, but still India had a good relation with Russia as well as China. Everything was going well till here. After that, the problem started to happen to you. So first let's understand that in 1950, India became the first non-socialist block country to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. And it rejected with China the Taiwan that is known as Republic of China. And what do we call this China? The current China that you see. That is the People's Republic of China. In 1954 similarly, Nehruv signed a Panchil Agreement. In the Panchil Agreement, there are five basic principles through which India lives peacefully with China. Basically, there is non-interference in each of the matters. Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. Mutual interests. So these five principles establish the friendship between India and China. But now started to come the problem. In 1959, Dalai Lama fled to India. And India gave him shelter. India said that, yes, you can live. And after that, China started to X-up the ante against India. Which finally culminated in 1962 Indo-China war. And this war was so decisive. It was a turning point. India-China at that time had such a close relationship. And they used to think that the future will be of Asian century. Which will be led by China in India. It will not be led by the West-led global order. Rather, the future is of Asia. And who are the major powers of Asia? It is the India and China will be the future power. But this 1962 war, which as Jay Shankar in his book The India Way also talks about, that this war has not only led to defeat of India. Rather, it has led to defeat of trust of Indians on Chinese. So that's why this war has a huge mindset impact on many Indians. So till now, we have obviously lost in the 1962 war. But our defeat was not just our war, but the defeat of all of Asia. Because that led to India understanding that China at one point of time, because China is a closed society. China is not an open society. The closed society always has to work on propaganda. Always works on hyper-nationalism. So China will be always a threat to India. So after the 1962 war, Indian policy makers were quite clear about this. So in 1962, when the vision of Asian century broke, China-Pakistan's axis started emerging from here. So you know that in the middle of the 1960s and 70s, the global order was changing a lot. I will summarize this a little bit. On one side, you saw that in 1962, there was the India-China war. China started to increase its friendship with Pakistan. Here, the close friendship between China and Russia also started to deteriorate in the middle of the 1960s and 70s. You know that there was the Sino-Soviet split. China and Russia fought on the border in 1968. And because of that, the biggest threat for China at that time was the U.S. Today, by replacing the U.S., Russia became the biggest threat for China. So who became the biggest threat for China, Russia? And here, the U.S. understood that this is the right moment when I can take Chinese people on my side to counter the communism. So here, you know that Mr. Kissinger visited China secretly. After that, Nixon and the U.S. President visited China. And because of that, their relationship increased. And in this context, we saw how the new geopolitical axis came about in 1970. On one side, there was India-Russia. You know that in 1971, India made a treaty of friendship with Russia. During the Bangladesh war. And on the other side, what was the geopolitical axis? That is of China, Pakistan and the U.S. Now, in these two blocks, our politics was divided. Right? 1960 to 1988. It was a cold peace. So you know that the period from 1970 to 1988. Here, we saw that these two geopolitical blocks had been divided. On the one hand, the U.S., China, Pakistan and on the other hand, India-Russia. So, the relationship has deteriorated a lot in this period. But still, the two countries' relationship did not deteriorate to a point where they had to fight with each other. So, the 1962 war as an incident did not repeat. That means, there was no war between the two countries, between China and India. But that does not mean that China-India had a very good relationship. That is why we explain it in a word known as cold peace. Peace was there, but it was not out of love, rather it was out of comparisons. Both the economies were going well. Both the economies did not have as much growth. So that they would revive and expand the military again. That is why peace was there. That means both countries did not get involved in the war. But that does not mean that both countries were enjoying their best point of time. Their relationships were fine. It was stable. But not, it was very good. So, that is why I say that, between 1960 and 1988, the relationship could be best described as cold peace. Next come the phase three. That is a phase of peaceful rise. That started from 1988 to 2010. 2008, global financial crisis. That is what is being discussed at that time. So, the first relationship was good. The relationship in the 1962 war was bad. After that, new geopolitical access emerged. After that, it was cold peace. But now both the countries went on a peaceful rise. Peaceful rise means that both the countries have come from peace. You know that in 1990, India reformed LPG. In the 1970s, 80s and 80s, the president of China also reformed his economy. Socialism with Chinese characteristics. So, both the countries opened themselves and reformed themselves. So, let's see what developments took place in this context. In 1988, Rajiv Gandhi visited Beijing. And this is a very important visit because after 1962, the relationships that were cold, this relationship was revitalized again. Because India had an economic compulsion that India also wanted to grow. And to grow, it needed a peaceful border. And that's why Rajiv Gandhi visited China. And at that time, the Chinese leaders, you know Deng Xiaoping. And Deng Xiaoping was that guy who has laid all the foundations of Chinese economic growth. So, today, China has grown from a double digit. It could have never been possible because of Deng Xiaoping. Before Deng Xiaoping, there was Mao Zedong. And during Mao Zedong, the Chinese economy was completely collapsed. People were starving to death. Because China was completely involved in that geopolitics. It was not focusing on geo-economics. But when Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1978 in China, that guy was pragmatic. He knew that without economic success, we can never have that military capability. And that's why Deng Xiaoping invested all its time in building the Chinese economy. And this is a very important slogan of Deng Xiaoping as well. That was keeping a low profile and binding time. That China shouldn't come into geopolitics anymore. China shouldn't go into global hegemony and all that. We should just be quiet. We should focus on our internal development. Time will speak for us. That's why China, no matter how much they were fighting in global order, didn't go into contests. And China was completely focusing itself on economy. And you know, after 1990, when India shifted towards liberalization and privatization, we set up the ideological biasness of socialism and we also became pragmatic. We also started to focus on geo-economics. So in 1990, because both countries were very pragmatic, they were thinking about geo-economics and that led to a huge amount of convergences between the two countries. And in this context, these two countries started to increase their friendship well. That's why we called this phase a peaceful rise. In 1993 and 1996, peace and tranquility was also an agreement. You know, in 2000, RIC and BRICS were made as a platform. Its purpose was to check American hegemony and to ensure a multipolar world order. Similarly, in 2003, Vajpayee visited China which led to the evolution of ties. Our ties got converted into a strategic partnership. In 2013, again, border-defense cooperation was an agreement. So things are going quite well here. Because both countries are not looking like enemies. Rather, both countries are trying to cooperate. Both countries are trying to maximize its economic productivity. But things are going to get worse. Things are going to get worse because, again, world order is changing. See, if you have to understand the relations of any two countries, you have to first analyze the world order. What does world order mean? World order basically explains where the power is distributed. For example, you have a unipolar world order. That means power is considered in one pole. Bipolar world order. That means power is distributed among two poles. So this world order keeps on changing. Who has power? If I talk about the Cold War, then the US and USSR had power. But now, if you understand, then the major power is with the US and China. But apart from it, there are many other small major powers such as India, middle powers, which we call India, Brazil, South Africa, France, Australia. This is our middle power. So this world order changes as well as the relationship between the two countries changes. In 1970, we saw the world order where you had to come to India, Russia, China, Pakistan, the US. Now this world order will change. Now how will this world order change because there are many developments between 2012 and 2014. You know that in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and the dependence on Russia's China began to increase in this context because sanctions began to be imposed on Russia. So from here, Russia and China had a higher friendship. India had also understood that power asymmetry is increasing a lot with China because China, which has grown from the rate of 2008 global financial crisis, it was humongous. It had this exponential growth. And in this context, India also realized that there is a lot of asymmetry of power. And if there is so much asymmetry of power, then the Chinese people and the Chinese government will definitely benefit from this. So India also started to become very practical. So now, in a way, world order is going in a transition mode. Although it has not changed, it has changed now. After 2020, after the pandemic, we are getting to see a significant change. But this whole change starts after the 2008 global financial crisis. And if we talk about India-China, it starts in 2012 when Xi Jinping came to power in China. And in 2014, when Prime Minister Modi came to power in India. Because these two leaders are completely strong. They had huge charismatic personality. Mass appeal. Nationalistic leaders. Leaders who talk about national interests. So now the relationships both countries knew that now if anything happens, it might escalate. So now come to the phase 4 that is from 2014 till now. In 2012, you have Xi Jinping came to power. In 2014, you have Prime Minister Modi came to power. In 2014, President Xi visited India. In 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China. In 2017, India was given a membership of the SCO. But what happened now? In 2017, there was a stand-off of Doclam. And Doclam stand-off was a very important point. Because it was a very long stand-off. Doclam is a region which lies at the conjunction of India, Bhutan and China. And Doclam is very important for India because it lies close to the chicken snake. Siliguri Corridor. So in 2017, the first stand-off took place. But still, the stand-off was successfully resolved. Do you know that there were two informal summits. In 2018, the Indian Prime Minister visited Wuhan. He was called Wuhan Informal Summit. Then in 2019, President Xi, who came to India in Mahabali Pudam had an informal summit. So again, meet at Mamala Pudam. So they ensured that the differences should not become dispute. So till now, it's fine. The problems have begun to increase again. The phase of Peaceful Rise has ended. Problems are increasing here. There was a problem in trade relations because India had huge trade deficit with China. Because Chinese people and Chinese government does not allow the excess of Indian goods into their market. And because of that, this problem arises. Then again, the border dispute, Doclam. So now, there is a little tension in the relationship. But the tensions that were coming, got a major push in the year 2020 when China entered into India's territory and killed 20 of our Indian soldiers. Now, this was again a 1962 Walla moment. Again, a big turning point in India-China relations. And this relation that has come into a problem after 2020, it is still not resolved. So first time after the 1962 war, that soldiers have died in clashes in Ladakh. Then, what happened after that? People's Liberation Army, the Chinese Communist Party army. PLA soldiers involved in Galwan Clash. The Chinese soldiers involved in Galwan Clash, they were made as Olympic torch bearer in the Winter Olympics. Think about it. Does China want to provoke India? It is called symbolic. But this is the provocation of India. And that's why India boycotted the Winter Olympics. And then, China recently changed the name of some particular districts in Arunachal Pradesh because Arunachal Pradesh believes South Tibet. Finally, new law has come which lists responsibility to take steps to safeguard the national sovereignty. So China has brought a new law and said that if anyone will impact the national sovereignty, we will retaliate and take all the steps which are required to protect our sovereignty. So this was the historical perspective. So again, I would be summarizing you. China-India relations started on a good note. The relationship suffered after the 1962 war. After that, world order changed which led to the emergence of two geopolitical axes. One, US-India, China, Pakistan, on the second hand, Russia and India. After that, we saw a peaceful rise in the relationship. After the Cold War, when the Cold War collapsed, the priorities of the two geopolitical countries began to converge. And that's why both countries started to grow with each other. But these things were growing. India was growing, but China was growing at a double pace that led to huge asymmetry in power. And when there was so much asymmetry in power, then psychologically, a country, wants to suppress the other country. And that's what happened. So the first time it happened in Doklam and the second thing, the major decisive thing happened in 2020 Galwan when China violated every agreement and every international law and principles. Okay? So this is your historical evolution of India-China relations. If we have to tell you the status of today's relation, how can we explain today's relation in the best way? So the first thing you have to remember is complex interdependence. Joseph Nye, a scholar, has given a concept. Complex interdependence means that India and China are interdependent on each other. But this interdependence is not very simple. It is very complex. Because India depends on China. China also depends a lot on India. But they also depend on each other. But they also fight on one side. There are also problems. So this is what we call complex interdependence. But interdependence is there. But there is no 100% love between the two countries. There are also some point of contestation between the two countries. So such interdependence, which has the dynamics of conflict and cooperation, we call it complex interdependence. So today, the issue of Galwan has ended with China. Our trade has increased with China. And this is not our relation with Pakistan. So China is a different challenge. Because with China, our interdependence is good. And on the other hand, there is an active border dispute. So we can call such relations complex interdependence. There is conflict and cooperation. Second, again world order is changing. So this world order will always change. In 1960, world order changed. In 2014, Russia's Crimean and in 2017, Doklam and 2020 Galwan again world order changed. So the world order is changing. The first thing that is changing is that China wants a unipolar Asia. Which was of dense yawping, keeping your profile low and binding your time. That time will come. We don't have to go into those things now. We just have to focus on geo-economics. Now the China think that time has come. Now there is no point in hiding our strength. Now whatever we want, we will do it. So China wants to now attempt unipolar Asia. That's why the Belt and Road Initiative is bringing all these grand projects to China. And for that, the asymmetry of power of India has become a big problem for India. And in this context, India is going for internal as well as external balancing. We have read this. Internal balancing, the PLI scheme, make in India, external balancing, external balancing, quad or US. For US, India has emerged as a swing state and as an offshore balancer. In this context, India-US relations are quite big. Because US has to make its hegemony. For that, China has to contain it. And India needs its border peaceful because India wants to grow and not fight. And that's why India again wants to bridge its asymmetry of power with China. And that's why it's taking the help of US and other western countries. That's why India and the West, especially with the US, are quite big. And apart from this, if I look at China's Russia, after 2014, after the Crimean annexation, sanctions were imposed on Russia. And finally, because of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia has become completely diplomatically isolated. And Russia has completely pivoted towards China. So there, Russia and China are growing very fast in the relationship of Pakistan. And on the other hand, your relationship between the US and India is growing. So this is the transition which the world order is facing, juggling up to. Because there's a huge fundamental shift which is happening in the global politics. Like-minded countries are coming together to ensure the rules-based world order. So right now, you have a completely different time. So whenever you want to read the relationship, you have to understand the world order first. Which world order and in the context of the world order, then you have to understand the relationship. Okay? So this was your analysis just now. So the first important point is complex interdependence. There's conflict and cooperation. Then the transition in world order. China's hegemonic aspirations. China's aspirations of unipolar Asia. India is going for internal as well as external balancing. For the US, to emerge as a swing state and as an offshore balancer. Like-minded countries like France, Australia, Japan which are trying to ensure the rules-based world order. Right? So all these things are being translated and an important transition which I think has been missed. China, Pakistan and Russia. Especially China and Russia. And especially the pivot of Russia towards China. So you have a new geopolitical axis that's coming down. Like the US, China, Pakistan. India, Russia. Look at what happened today. Russia went here. So Russia, China, Pakistan and the US came here. So this is the world order where a fundamental change has come. And in this context we want to understand this relationship. Some aspects of relations are facts. If I talk about aspects of relations, India has a 3 trillion dollar economy and China has a 17 trillion dollar economy. And trade is more than 100 billion dollars. But the problem is that India has 50 dollars of trade deficit. And India that's why it's trying to decouple itself from China. And not only India but many other countries which has been exposed to supply chain shocks during the pandemic is going for supply chain diversification which has led to emergence of initiatives like SCRI. Supply chain resilience initiative. How can we make supply chain strong? And India, Japan, Australia comes together. Then you know that China plus one strategy is also adopting many countries to diversify its base. So now the golden period of China's economy is ending. Because now the country has tried to understand that boss this country is not only focusing on geoeconomics but now this country is completely focusing on geopolitics. So now the business people, the investors are becoming increasingly skeptical about the stability in China. And that's why China is trying to diversify its base from the outside. And India has emerged as the best place to invest in. So this China plus one strategy is supply chain resilience initiative which is now linked with the entire US and West countries supply chain with China. Now they are trying to go for diversification and build some parallel supply chains with countries, like-minded countries which is the best option for them. But despite this the trade is increasing very rapidly. Then finally climate change again India-China. Here a climate chain is an area where India-China cooperates a lot. Climate finance, climate adaptation, Paris agreement, because both are developing countries in that sense. China is not a developed country because if you look at the developed country per capita income, it's a lot. It's five times that of China. So developed country is there. But China's economy is very big. So overall its economy is big but per capita income is still low. So China is still a developing country as per the definition which has been given by the World Bank. So developing countries still have to grow. They still need electricity. They need coal for electricity. So both countries collaborate on the aspects of climate change. But what are the challenges in the relationship? Let's look at the challenges. First of all, China's hegemony aspirations. China's attempt to build a unipolar Asia. Different in perception our cultural gap is very high. India-US has very less cultural gap. We also eat burgers, they also eat burgers, we also eat English speaking, they also eat English speaking. But China-India has a cultural gap because of tourism. That's why it's a perception gap. Third territorial dispute, active border dispute A-Semitic power that's become very important for India. India's bid to NSG Nuclear Supply Group in which China blocked Do you know that recently China requested that it should be sanctioned under the 1267 Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee. China also keeps vetoing it at the behest of Pakistan. Finally, in 2020 first downstream dam on the lower reaches of the Brahmaputra river that originates from China that comes in the northeast of India China is making a lot of dams that used to be built on the upper reaches now it's being built on the lower reaches near India. Christopher Jaffer-Lott says water bombs in the Himalayas that can release the dam and disrupt the northeast. So these are China's rogue intentions false intentions, negative intentions. Because what is the biggest threat for China? Do you know what is the biggest threat for China? That's also a threat but the biggest threat for China is that China does not want a successful democracy sitting right next to its border because if India becomes a successful democracy and India grows due to the complexity of democracy then the people of China will say that they don't need democracy for such a big country that India has grown so there may be Tiananmen Square protests so China always wants to humiliate and contain India because it's not afraid of its economy it's afraid of the democracy the values like secularism human rights independent judiciary checks and balances separation of power China is very scared of India but it wants to tell people that India is a failed democracy democracy is not perfect for countries in Asia right? So these are your challenges in some relationship after that if we talk about the Belt and Road Initiative then you know the Belt and Road Initiative China and Xi Jinping have a grand project in front of the world it has been introduced in 2014 and now it has been mentioned in the constitution of China and these two components we have the Silk Road Economic Belt which will be connected through the road so there are roads, railways and airports and on the second side you have the Maritime Silk Road where different ports are being built and through this China is trying to integrate the entire Eurasia and look at the Belt and Road Initiative the objective is to break the bottlenecks in Asian connectivity the challenges of connectivity in Asia is to finish the challenges and make a huge market because China has so much money that it can do this China has so many industries and exports because China is a highly export dependent country China earns a lot of money from exports so China wants to make the market basis of its exports China has huge dollar reserves and through those dollar reserves it invests and then there are many other false intentions of China behind BRI in some time so referred to as New Silk Road to break the bottlenecks in the Asian connectivity in 2013 Xi Jinping announced BRI and now it has been mentioned in the constitution its two components are Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road next vast network of railways, energy pipelines, highways, special economic zones are being built in this more than 120 countries have now signed and joined the BRI so if you want to become a leader in the world when you wanted to become a leader in the US then the US brought the Bretton Woods Institution you need institutions to show your power and China is doing the same making banks with the National Development Bank Bricks Country bringing big projects like BRI joining different platforms RCEP so what does China want to do it wants to build institutions because of those institutions China wants to break Hegemony and BRI is that greatest project the greatest dream of Xi Jinping because China knows that if BRI succeeds then the global influence of China will increase so that is a leadership moment or the so called leadership moment for Xi Jinping these two components are that something fine what are the challenges to the world because of the BRI project the biggest challenge is the depth trap you know the best example of Shilanka Shilanka's 20% depth is from China and in what way China has given a great depth to Shilanka there is no need you don't have to buy a house but you are saying buy 0.001% but sometimes you have to repay it back and you can only repay it back when you are getting some income because from that only you can pay but the projects are being built by the Chinese money and Chinese people know that or Chinese companies know that this particular project is not economically viable so the country in which these projects are being constructed they are not able to repay back the loan and because of that China forcefully acquires that area Shilanka has not been able to repay China's loan so what did China do on the lease of 1990 so this is the biggest depth trap being trapped you don't want depth even if you want depth you need it in a good place but what does China want to do it is giving you depth where it is giving you a very important for China on geostatic positions on choke points it is giving you a loan in important geographical areas and it wants you not to repay because from that what will China get a chance that you are not able to repay so give me this area on the lease so there is a very important geographical point near to India so this is called depth trap this is called depth trap diplomacy ok so China's depth trap diplomacy responsible for economic calamity in Shilanka opaque bidding process which is completely opaque in BRI project and in many such contracts the requirement of Chinese firms is mandatory contractors have inflated clause leading to cancel project so contractors who come from China laborers also come from China it is not like if China invests it does local employment opportunities China takes its own labor it takes its own contractors some say that New York colonialism in which China is engaged and it is doing a lot in African countries and it is doing it everywhere political backlash in domestic countries it happened in Maldives because China gets trapped in that country so political retaliation is taking place and see I am not exaggerating this is happening and why this is happening because China is a close society if it is an open society then there is no problem see open society is what? a society which is open the information can be exchanged between the inside and outside world the leaders change there is an idea to tell what you want to prove the leaders wrong so when you have an open society you might have some problem but in the long term that will not be a great problem because Hitler Germany and Hitler close society Italy close society North Korea and Kim Jong Un close society Maduro and Venezuela close society so any close society is prone to abuse their power because absolute power corrupts absolutely so that is the problem with China that it is a close society so India does not have a problem you grow you become a 20, 30, 50 trillion dollar economy but you are a close society and close society is a terrible problem you know if you fake things if you keep everything in your mind so that is a very big problem and when you meet a people who are able to express themselves who is ready to be proven wrong who is ready to exchange their views who is ready to learn from you so that person always grows and that person does not have any kind of malicious intentions but that is not the case with China because China in its foundation is a close society and close societies are always prone to abuse their power and that is what China is being engaged in so sometimes you might think this is the conspiracy of the West exaggerating China's threat but that is happening now what are the challenges to India because of BRI what are the challenges for India BRI is a plan to dominate what is the biggest objective of China immediate objective that hegemony will come in the world I want a unipolar Asia we want hegemony in the whole Asia region what is the biggest obstacle for India because it is only India which can challenge China the US is very far away so India has the capability to directly reduce the influence of China so China always tries to demotivate India part of CPET project China Pakistan Economic Corridor which goes from Gilgit Baltistan and that is a complete violation of sovereignty of India because that is something which is passing through the Indian region not just with Indian authorities also hamper India's larger interest in South Asian region South Asia has always been India's region of influence India has been the net security provided in the South Asia in the Indian Ocean region and now China is trying to challenge and demotivate again India by projects like China Myanmar Economic Corridor Nepal China Trans Himalayan Multidimensional Connectivity Network and finally the String of Pearl Strategy in Iowa South Asia which is generally an influence area end India's economy Indian Ocean region where again India's net security provider is there also contain India in this way and see this is the String of Pearl Strategy in this way a pearl is placed on India that you cannot leave it we will contain you here so here we have Hamman Tota port there are a lot of ports in Maldives in Pakistan, Gaudar port, Khyakpur port, Myanmar through this it is trying to completely contain India that brother you should stay here you should stay here you should not leave after this that is good for you this is what China is trying to do this is what China is trying to do okay so Myanmar's a Yangon port Khyakpur port is also one of the Pakistan Gaudar port, Hamman Tota port is also a sustainable debt burdens to seize control of the regional choke points so what are choke points? they are those points which if choked they can disrupt the global supply of goods and commodities for example this is a choke point in Switzerland Malakka state is a choke point Strait of Hormuz is a choke point these are all our choke points so these choke points see what is this this is the port center of the Indian Ocean and here you gave your unsustainable debt there was no need do not pay similarly see China has made a port in Djibouti the first port of China over a different country in Djibouti, in Horn of Africa and what is there? it is trying to get control of this particular area Hormuz state so this is the mission of China to make its influence give unsustainable debt and take it because the military influence of the US has spread a lot China will take many years to reach there but China is pushing it aggressively what India can do how can India compete with the Belt and Road Initiative India has its own projects International North-South Transport Coil which we want to make against the BRI India is in Iran there is a port outside connect it from here and then from here come back to here International North-South Transport Corridor so it is proposed from 2015 but what is the problem of India India talks more but delivers less and that is what the problem with India's diplomacy is that we go to different countries promise them all that things but when it comes to delivery of those projects we lag in that that is why many countries support and trust China because China has a very robust delivery mechanism unlike India so India has a big problem that all these projects they get stuck look at our Chaabahar port and the roads in Iran many projects which India takes but they cannot do Asia-Africa Growth Corridor where India and Japan both collaborate in what way joint projects can be done in Africa SAGAR initiative which India has brought security and growth of all in the region Indian Ocean region our entire policy document is SAGAR you can read it with 5 principles then US and West have brought Built Back Better World initiative after the pandemic we can emerge as a better world so in that also India can use these platforms to contain China then finally you have the Europe Union which we have a project EU's partnership for global infrastructure and investment where about 700 billion dollars investment will be done in developing countries so all these West's flagship projects can be used by India because you know India is that bridge between the developed country and the developing world we are a bridge between the developed world and the developing world so how India by leveraging its soft power developing countries flagship projects with the help of it and using its own labor influence in this area China's BRI project which is being influenced can counter it so these are some of the solutions which India can do to stop the influence of the Belt and Road initiative now let's talk about border dispute there is one more aspect of border dispute of India-China relations so let's talk about border dispute where is the border dispute of India-China the eastern sector the eastern sector there is a dispute in the MacMohan line because in the MacMohan line China has accepted Tibet and it says that Nepal Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh are all South Tibet because China this area is South Tibet Arunachal Pradesh is called South Tibet so the dispute line in the eastern sector is the MacMohan line now let's talk about the border this is the map this is the map which we have this is the map we have this is the map we have this is the line of control and this is the line of actual control this is the Siachen-Glacier and this is the Aksai-Chin which India lost to China in the 1962 war this is the Aksai-Chin area this is Ladakh this is Kashmir this is Azad-Kashmir which we call POK and this is Gilgit this is a complex map this is Gilgit-Baltistan this is Azad-Kashmir this is Jammu-Kashmir-India Ladakh which is India Siachen-Glacier which is India but still it is disputed and Aksai-Chin is already lost to China so you have a lot of disputes here when 20 soldiers were killed in Galwan then all of them come here it is very difficult to patrolling here sometimes they enter from here sometimes they enter from here so this is the problem which we are facing in this particular so what is our problem in the western sector that India uses the Johnson Line look at this India uses this line Johnson Line so India uses this Johnson Line so because of using the Johnson Line the whole Aksai-Chin is ours but the China Line uses the McDonald Line and what is the McDonald Line this one so with the McDonald Line the whole Aksai-Chin area is lost to China so in the eastern sector we have a dispute on the McMohen Line in the western sector we are having a dispute where India has to say that our line is the Johnson Line and China has to say so this dispute is between the western sector and the eastern sector there are disputes in the middle so those disputes are not that big as compared to this dispute in the western sector so here also there are some disputes but that is not now what is the reason for these disputes look at this we have the concept of palm and five fingers so this is palm and tibbat so what is palm and tibbat and what are the five fingers one is Arunachal one is Arunachal one is Bhutan the third finger is Sikkim and the fourth finger is Nipal the same is the policy of Mao Zedan five fingers of the tibetan palm five fingers of the tibetan palm and these five fingers are to be taken so they are not taken in 1950 there are only five fingers left that also needs to be taken so why does China not resolve the border disputes with India now what happens It is said that India and China have resolved the border in Bangladesh, but why can't China be in the middle of India? China doesn't want to do it. India has done a lot of bad things. Come, let's end the border dispute. Why are you fighting with Falto? Let us resolve this. But China never wants this to happen. Because China knows that if the border dispute is resolved, then it feels two things. First, that India will raise the issue of Tibet better. Suppose that if this is India, if this is China, and this is our border dispute, then what would China do if it entered here? They would say that this was my area, the border dispute. They would take away some area. But suppose if we resolve the border dispute. Now I say that this is the border of India, and this is the border of China. And this is no man's land. That means the boundary dispute is resolved. So now does China have an issue to provoke India on the border? Because the boundary has been settled exactly now. Then China has no excuse to enter India's area and demotivate it, humiliate it. That's why China doesn't resolve this. Because it knows that whenever India will grow economically, India's influence will increase, then what will we do? Do we know? Will we go into their area? Will we take away this much area? Will India humiliate it? Will India demotivate it? That's the end of the story. It is also called a salami-salizing strategy. So that's why China has never any intention to resolve the borders with India. Because China knows that if they resolve this border, then they will not have any mudda. They will not have any agenda. They will not have any excuse to provoke India unnecessarily whenever they are fearful of India's economic growth, rising global influence. And the second China thinks that if they resolve the border dispute with India, then India will again try to play the tibetan card. The tibetan card will raise the issue. India is very scared of the back foot. In Tibet and Taiwan, we never criticize China. We will see our policy. The tibetan card never raises the issue. The Buddhist council that took place in India, our seminar was not invited to Dalai Lama. So India still plays a bit safe. So China thinks that if they resolve the border dispute with India, then India will not be scared. Then Tibet will raise the issue. That's why China never wants this particular thing to settle down. Psychological warfare. This is a psychological warfare. The Chinese scholar had done this a long time ago. This is a psychological warfare. Mindset impact. Demotivate. He should be afraid of his mind. Psychological warfare to burst the Indian bubble and abrogation of Article 370 is one again reason because China has a lot of investment in the Chinese-Pakistan economy corridors. So if something happens here tomorrow, then China can also have a lot of impact. So this is the main reason for the border disputes. But, are these the reasons for Galwan? Or were there some other reasons because of which Galwan is a big incident? We will see that now. These are the general points why there is a border dispute between India and China. Now we will try to understand what are the special points which has been there because why the Galwan incident happened. Now we understand that. Why Galwan? So Galwan is a tipping point in India-China's relations. The relationship has come to its lowest level now. Second, Adventureism in the name of ultra-nationalism to shore up the legitimacy. Again a very important point. Now look, China is not a democracy. And no leader and no political party can survive for an indefinite period without gaining the legitimacy of the people. Because otherwise the people would start to protest. So China and the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese General Secretary of the Communist Party i.e. Xi Jinping or any other leader they always have to make legitimacy. So till now the Chinese Communist Party had made legitimacy. It was because of its spectacular economic growth. Lifting people out of poverty. Providing education. Export give us employment. But now that golden summer of China's economy has come to an end. Or come to a slow down. And China knows that there won't be that much economic goodwill of China. There won't be that much capacity. And that's why now China is trying to focus more towards nationalistic ideas. So China had said that there was a 100th centenary celebration of the Chinese Communist Party last year in 2021. So what did China say in Xi Jinping? If anyone will try to dare to attack China or humiliate China then we will crack their head and spill their blood on the great wall of steel built by the Chinese flesh and blood. So this is called the nationalistic card because now you know how much employment we will give. China's total fertility rate is decreasing there are a lot of problems with China. Labour force participation has decreased there has been a skewed sex ratio. Exports have slowed down a lot. Zero Covid policy has had a lot of impact on its economy. So that's why now they are trying to play this ultra nationalistic card to boost up its legitimacy. Military power to alter status is also called the Salami slicing strategy. Salami peace strategy also says that China is trying to tell the message that we need a lot of money. We cannot take it in India but we have so much military capability that we will keep taking it in pieces. This is called the Salami slicing strategy. This is one more thing about Galwan because India-US relations were increasing a lot. In 2017, COD had also been operationalised. COD had been upgraded to the foreign minister level. Now it has finally reached the summit level but COD was increasing a lot in momentum. In 2017, when there was a decline then India started to pivot more towards west and the biggest development was revitalisation of COD. So in this way, because of this Galwan incident India had to give a message that no matter how friendly you are with the US you will not be able to save it. And this was a message for the US that you should not tell the world that you will save the country if you support it. We can attack your friends too. So this was a message game both to India and both to the US. Finally it signals the end of Beijing's peaceful rise. That was the foundational principle of dense yawping, keeping the profile low and binding your time, hide your strength. Now China's think the time has come there is no point in hiding the strength it thinks that its time has come and it has the capacity to alter the status co-unilaterally. And that's what the five broad, basic, most important reason why Galwan happened. So this is the reason for disputes but Galwan was a completely different game of picture because it was a big incident. Where after so many years, for the first time Indian soldiers died in Ladakh. So that's why it was a very much tipping point in the history. Now there is another small aspect if we consider the topic of Taiwan we talked about Taiwan that when colonialism ended in China which is called Century of Humiliation. Century of Humiliation means that China was colonized for 100 years from 1939 in 1939 colonialism was over after that Civil War took place in China there were two parties one was the KMT party and the other was the Chinese Communist Party Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek they fought CCP won this war Russia was supporting it KMT was supporting Russia CCP won because Mao Zedong was a charismatic leader because China was a kind of agriculture society so all the peasants stood with CCP so the Chinese Communist Party won and established itself in China and the KMT the liberal principles supported democracy supported secularism they ran to Taiwan and established themselves in Taiwan So that's why the Chinese Communist Party is called People's Republic of China and the KMT in Taiwan is called Republic of China so in this way China says Taiwan is mine but Taiwan says I am an independent country I am the real China and Chinese Communist Party say that I am the real China and this is also part of my China only so this is known as PRC and it is called Republic of China now history of Taiwan Republic of China was made in 1949 in 1949 CCP Chinese Communist Party defeated it okay so this is how China was formed so there is a Republic of China and on one side there is Republic of China and you know China's famous policy one China policy so whose one China policy is this China which one is China's? People's Republic of China so what does China say we follow one China policy one China policy says if any country made diplomatic relations with Taiwan that is the Republic of China then I will end all kind of diplomatic engagement with that particular country for example India made diplomatic relations with Taiwan then that means and all the diplomatic relations with India okay so although India does not India accepts one China policy and India accepts people's Republic of China as the real China but still we have engagements but we do not have diplomatic engagements so we have economic relations, we have other relations but diplomatic relations are only with some countries okay now we will talk about US and Taiwan so in 1945 Taiwan was made a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council this is very shocking but that is true because at that time Taiwan was being supported by US in 1971 now do you know what you have access to US, China, Pakistan so at this time because the world order changed Taiwan was expelled from the United Nations and now who in the US considered it as the real China People's Republic of China and here in the future the member of the United Nations Security Council was also made this was a huge shift in the US in its foreign policy so from recognizing the Republic of China that is Taiwan as the real China moving towards accepting people's Republic of China as the real China in 1979 in relation to other China and India China US formalized and one China policy US now accepts now US have accepted the one China policy but still after that US and Taiwan relations established some acts through Taiwan relations act and Taipei Act which is the latest act and in Taipei Act basically it is said that US will provide all kinds of sophisticated weapons to Taiwan so that Taiwan can ensure its sovereignty from the aggressive China so Taipei Act 2019 was again a big turning point now the US went towards China now it is again coming back to Taiwan because it knows that China will then inquire Taiwan and China needs to support Taiwan because Taiwan is very important and the most important point of Taiwan is first it is a democratic country and that is why it is very close to China and second it is very dependent on semiconductor so Biden said US will defend Taiwan against China but you know the US speaker Pelosi visits to Taiwan for the first time in 25 years someone visited the highest ranking officers what did China say to Washington don't play with fire Beijing will not hesitate to start a war if Taiwan declares independence that was again a very big message in 2023 US speaker McCarthy meets Taiwan's side despite China's pressure recently it was in news when Taiwan's president was on US visit in that whole continent then again met the speaker China said don't meet but despite being Taiwan president after that China made precision missile strikes on Taiwan provoked Taiwan so this is the US policy for Taiwan first Taiwan was considered in 1971 Taiwan was thrown one China policy and the real China was considered in the public of China after that US and China were very big but now when there are problems between US and China the US has again started to play the Taiwan card and US is trying to pivot towards again Taiwan and Taiwan is supporting Taiwan giving a lot of supplies Biden said I will protect you so this is the US policy of dancing here and there because US always looks far more ahead than any other country starts to think where our thinking ends in fact US starts that's why US has been one of the major hegemonic power since Second World War India and Taiwan's relation again between India and Taiwan because you know in 1950 we considered the people of China as real China so our relationship with Taiwan was completely over during the Cold War because Taiwan was always anti of China and our China because China is our border so we did not want to provoke China and also our relationship with Nehru was fine before 1962 after that India started to interact more and more with Taiwan so no official diplomatic relations diplomatic relations are not there because India again accepts the one China policy so diplomatic relations are not there but despite that we had many other channels of communications like India-Taipei association in Taipei Taipei Economic and Cultural Center which is Taiwan's representative office not embassy because embassy is again a diplomatic channel these are the formal channels look at the two Indian MPs in 2020 first time virtually attended the Swearing and Ceremony of Taiwan's President this was also a very important point there was a Minakshi Levaki who is also a MOSV Minister of External Affairs first country to send medical equipment to India so that's why with Taiwan on an unofficial level our relationship with Taiwan has increased so India although accepts one China policy India does not have any diplomatic official diplomatic relations but still India has informal unofficial relationships we have two offices one Indian office in Taipei Indian Taipei Association and Taipei representative office in India Taipei Economic and Cultural Center but you have a smart policy that New Delhi has started to stop mentioning one China policy so India one China policy agrees but doesn't say in their statements again India also is trying to play that psychological game when did this happen when China started giving stable visas to the people of Arunachal Pradesh stable passports so as a retaliation India didn't say one China policy so whenever you see India's embassy diplomatic statement we accept the statement which we have been accepting as of now but we don't need to re-create the statement again and again so there is nothing but we are not saying we are provoking China if you provoke us then we will play such mind games so India accepts one China policy but India does not have any kind of India does not use this concept as of now in aspects of relationship there is a strategic aspect India's China threat, Taiwan's China threat in economic aspect India's active policy and Taiwan's New Southbound policy so there is convergence in both Taiwan's electrical communication in semiconductors India is going with this digital India so there are two convergences biofriendly technologies to climate change trade relationship, our bilateral trade agreement and shared values democracy, secularism, rule of law so in this aspect there is a relationship now what is the way ahead how India has solutions to tackle China first of all go with balancing internal balancing and develop your economy external balancing may have a good relationship world is a full of contradictions and you have to exploit all those opportunities all those contradictions which fulfills your national interest hence India should go for both the balancing internal as well as external balancing second comes and resolves the border dispute resolve the border dispute force China to restore the status that you have changed so China should restore the status under Man and Nicobar islands because China always suffers from Malakka dilemma and this is a very important geographical location that is under Man and Nicobar islands we can exploit it well two plus one partnership we can do in Afghanistan two plus one partnership basically when India tries to have a partnership with countries like Japan because Japan has money, India has labour so in what way can we do a third developing partnership in Afghanistan, African country so two plus one partnership and as Jai Shankar said that three M should be followed mutual sensitivities, mutual respect and mutual interests so along with this we can normalize relationships so this is India, China, Taiwan, US in all the complexities Russia this is a very big topic but as much as everyone should know because this is one of the relationship which is the most important relationship and the biggest foreign policy challenge for India and not only India, in fact the entire world is facing this kind of threat that both countries trying to leverage or to make some kind of plan to counter this rising Chinese influence and India is also trying to do the same and I hope that both the countries relationship improve because the both countries should understand that Asia is big enough for both elephant and the dragon to dance and hence in this context I would highly recommend that both the leadership and especially the leadership from the Chinese side show pragmatism, show respect for India and be tolerant towards India's rise also because India has always been supportive of Chinese growth unlike the Chinese counterparts so I think so this is a time that Chinese statesmanship shows that kind of you know respect gets out of that great power politics and try to support India because you know that if you are going to fight then both will be collapsed so both will live or both will perish together it's up to the choice of both the leaders how they are going to build or shape the future please like the channel subscribe the channel and get in touch with me if you have any kind of problem related to international affairs thank you see you again don't forget to like share and subscribe to our channel and press the bell icon to never miss an update