 Okay, Traders, that is 1pm GMT and we are going to get started here today with this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. Before we get going, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent to today's presentation is the fact that views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They are not addictive or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Those of you here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from university. I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit to consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. I essentially had a front-row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets and with some capital to play with and some time in my hands, I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriate at that stage, day gambling. After some early beginner's luck, I actually managed to rack up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck run out. And as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions. These would ultimately lead to me experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my personal capital. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading. And I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I had not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality and all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I have to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. However, once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you accept and understand the true nature of trading, simply being a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and hellish emotional roller coaster ride of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Ticknell clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down the technical and fundamental drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for about two to three markets that I'm actively tracking for the trading session ahead. I also run Ticknell's E-mini strategy group where I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre-market thoughts for the New York cash trading session for the S&P 500. I give my bias for the day ahead and the specific trade levels where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 7,500 points since we launched the group in April 2021. Second Ticknell strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The Ticknell Futures Telegram Group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live market commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash trading session where traders can essentially see in real-time how I dissect the markets and how I identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from. As always, if you have any questions or you would like me to take a look at an instrument that I don't cover in my presentation, you're welcome to drop questions into the chat or again the instrument you'd like me to take a look at. You can drop that into the chat as well and I will come back to it at the end of the presentation. I won't be answering questions during the presentation as I need to as I want to concentrate on the charts that I've prepared for you guys today. So let's get things going here, looking at the S&P 500. I'm using the E-mini futures contract and we had a nice advance from the support zone last week into that 3900 test. However, with that advance which had impulsive qualities it's subdivided on the hourly timeframe into a nice five-wave sequence and I highlighted this to the guys in the trading group. The issue was that obviously we had Fed Chair Powell's testimony to the Senate on Tuesday Congress yesterday on Wednesday during which he came across as quite a bit more hawkish than the markets had anticipated. Obviously we had a few weeks ago his comments that he deemed the disciplinary process to be beginning. The markets took that as a dovish tilt and obviously we saw equities rise. However, this week he changed his tune once again and we saw a decent sell-off on Tuesday and we consolidated yesterday into the second testimony. Obviously not too much new news yesterday. However, he did walk back as he often does the prior days testimony and he came across a little less hawkish. He was keen to clarify with the markets that there was no set path for the next rate hike and so the markets had gone from pricing a 25 basis point rise before Tuesday's testimony to leaning towards a 50 basis point rise after Tuesday's testimony. However, that's moderated a bit now and so we're consolidating really ahead now tomorrow of the non-farm payrolls because obviously one of the key drivers for the inflationary pressures that are being experienced in the US is the tightness of the US labor market and in January we had that blowout 500,000 plus jobs created number which took the markets by surprise and obviously that amped up the idea that we're going to see increased rate hike. So tomorrow's number is going to be important and also important to watch for any revisions that we get in tomorrow's data, i.e. any walk back on that 500,000 plus number from January. So if we got some revisions down and we get a number tomorrow 200k or less I think the markets would take that as a positive development and we will see an extension to the upside. So technically speaking at the moment whilst we hold this support at the pitchfork here at the 3970 to 3950 area I think we can see another leg of upside and in terms of the upside objective now what I'd be looking for is if we can hold support here into the 3970, 3950 area then that gives us a nice upside objective here an equality target when I'm talking about quality for those of you here first time I'm always measuring equal swings in the market at a minimum target price objective for price movement and you can see that that 4127 will actually coincide with that descending trend line resistance coming in from the year-to-date highs that's an interesting confidence there. So what it's going to take is really a move back through the 4005 level to encourage a upside extension. I'm anticipating today that we get more of the same as yesterday's price action backing and filling really chop ahead of tomorrow's number as the markets wait for that data because if like I say we get some downside revisions and at a print 200k or less I think that's going to be taken as as bullish and then we can start to extend and work our way up into these upside objectives. Now to the downside if we take out 3945 on the downside that's going to be a bearish development and then I think we can start to think about a retest of the 3924 on route to another look at 3900 on the downside which would be a pretty bearish development from now my lean is to the long side whilst we hold 3950 3970 as support. Moving to the NASDAQ charts update here so coming into the week I was looking for a test into the trend channel resistance we didn't get that we've pulled back into the support area that I'd identified at the beginning of the week so let's take a look at where we could be headed here with NASDAQ so I would suggest a similar scenario is in play here if we can hold the current support area so this high volume node 12100 I would say actually from last week we were looking for this 11,865 area to get tested tested it pretty much to the tick and we did get a nice bounce there so as we correct here a couple of scenarios I'd be tracking we could either do a double correction here and move back into test support at the 11,930 and then advance once again to the upside or we get an extension back through the prior cycle highs and then we will be targeting an equality objective to the upside 12,748 so we're in a key battle zone here any moves back through 12,260 I want to be leading to the long side however any break back through 12,100 I think we get a retest of the 11,950 and that's going to be a key battle zone there I'm going to see bulls defend that for further upside otherwise we retest prior cycle lows 11,830 en route then to test back into 11,700 as downside objectives Dow Jones using the YM E-mini futures contract now the Dow Jones still has a downside objective which is it is yet to test select these charts update which is into this 32,000 level that's the equality on the weekly timeframe there we talked about this last week so how can we get there well at the moment we are sitting just above support 32,500 so any any move now that takes out that 32,500 likely holds a test into 32,200 then uses that as resistance which could take us into this 32,000 level now from this 32,000 level I've been paying very close attention to the price action bullish reversal patterns there I want to engage on the long side first objective is going to be that trend channel resistance 33,100 we've got a high volume area just above there 33,160 so I did at the moment I see the Dow as being the weaker of the three main indexes in the US let's move to the DAX DAX broke to the upside but we have we've stalled out here again just let the charts update a little slowly today so what I'm looking for with the DAX is a three wave correction now so I'm looking for any move back into 15,460 bullish reversal patterns there we want to engage on the long side looking for a break at this double top en route to first upside objective is always the 127 extension 15,820 and then I'd be looking for weekly projected range resistance and then that magnet of 16,000 as the principal objective for this move to the upside in the DAX so any pullbacks at the moment that test the pivot we have there we have the daily projected range support and this high volume node 15,460 that's going to be my entry point of the zone watching for bullish reversal patterns to take care to take the DAX to the upside for new highs moving to the FTSE FTSE hasn't really done much since since we checked in with it last week there were a couple of scenarios we were tracking we were either looking for a breakthrough the potential pivot here at 79,78 we didn't get that so now what I'm looking for is price to grind it out to the downside our target zone is 77,85 from 77,85 we're going to be watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side first and foremost we look for a move back to the high volume node 79,13 then a break of the corrective channel and the potential pivot here at 79,78 and our target on the upside is 8,200 but before that we have monthly projected range resistance 81,60 so any pullback now into 77,85 bullish reversal patterns we want to be on the long side of this market looking for new highs in this cycle we can look at the Nikkei, Nikkei sitting at some interesting levels now we are testing this weekly trend line resistance we poked through it earlier in the week found a little bit of resistance so 28,380 so on the daily time frame any close for me back through yesterday's low 27,978 that would be a key reversal from that weekly trend line resistance on the daily time frame I'd be taking the Nikkei short there and the first stop is going to be a move back into these prior cycle highs on the four hour time frame 27,865 but what I'd anticipate is that you can see here we would have this one two three we call this four this is our five so we could easily look at a move back into test the base here into 26,900 well let's say 27,000 so any loss of yesterday's lows 27,980 we look for a test of 20,865 failure to find buyers there and I would anticipate that we're going to see a deeper three-way corrected move back into test the base here at 26,968 nifty so the nifty we again a similar scenario we haven't we didn't break our corrective channel to the upside that was that would have triggered our long didn't get that so at the moment I'm still looking for a test of the confluence here at 17,219 watching for bullish reversal patterns here to engage on the long side high volume low test break of the corrective trend channel and then up to test the pivot at 18,365 not doing much of anything at this point but that's the key level I'm going to be paying attention to in terms of the nifty 17,220 I'm saying I don't think we have anything here no I'm going to rattle through these TLT I'm going to get on because I've got some interesting setups in the end that I want to cover before we wrap up today and the charts are moving particularly slowly TLT has an interesting pattern so this is the bond ETF potential here after we tested pretty much to the tick the equality objective and it will here we go so 9905 was the equality objective versus this bigger corrective swing structure we tested that pretty much to the tick by a stepped in we've got a nice impulse higher taking out the price swing higher here so I'm looking at any move back into the 130 level to set up an inverse head and shoulder scenario and I would be targeting initially an equality objective so when I talk about equality obviously I'm talking about equal legs here so if we do hold that 990930 we'd initially get an equality objective taking us up to 10450s if buyers continue to press then then we look for the high volume node 107 obviously the bonds are going to be pretty sensitive to tomorrow's data so we'll see how how they trade on the back of the non-farm payrolls dollar index it's the only position I'm running at the moment uh short the dollar index but we're not making the traction I'd anticipated to the downside and this actually now is starting to look corrective so it's just before I came on to the webinar here as to messaging in the group saying that this move looks correct corrected now so there's a potential we get another leg to the upside here in the dollar index 10650s I would again look at fading that and I'll fade any new high in the dollar index at the moment as long as we maintain momentum divergence so as long as price makes a new high but we don't get a new high in the momentum study I see that as an opportunity to fade this move in the dollar index I think we are extended currently and certainly due a decent pullback if not the end of this corrected move to the upside in the dollar so uh short the dollar at the moment my stops are at entry now 10560s and we'll see if we break higher into that 10650s but again from there like I say I'll be paying close attention to the price action and as long as we maintain momentum divergence I'll fade that move again in the dollar index ultimately I think we get a move to test this projected trend channel support back into the 104 and and for the dollar index euro dollar bulges for the slowness of these charts guys so euro dollar still looking for this downside extension to test into 10430s at this stage you can see the pattern that that could set up here the dollar index making new high test 10650s and the euro test 10430s if that happens in unison and we get reversals in both instruments that will be a very interesting setup and one I'll be taking advantage of and looking for at least a retest of the corrective channel here in terms of the euro dollar 10640s we'll also see we've got this weekly and daily projected trend channel support coming in there so this is going to be a really interesting test for the euro dollar sterling I'm just shy of our equality objective that I talked about last week I said to you guys that we had this triple triple bottom and if we broke it I anticipated that would happen with some momentum to the downside to get us into this 117 11780s came just shy now pulling back to test the breakdown point so I'd anticipate we get sellers in here just about 119, 11920 what's for bearish reversal patterns there for another leg to test into this support here 11780s and then we'll see if buyers are going to step in and that would broadly coincide obviously dollar index 10650s euro 10430s so that's the level to watch for the sterling and like I say you can look on the intraday time frame hourly or 30 minute charts for bearish rejections at the 11920s to get that moved down into these target zone dollar yen so dollar yen had traded into our resistance area obviously something to be cognizant of if you are not already the BOJ is Governor Corrodas final meeting he's been in situ since 2013 longer serving governor of the BOJ now something to pay attention to here the markets are broadly expecting nothing to happen tonight so the status quo is that rates remain unchanged the yield curve control strategy will remain as is for now and that mantle will be passed to the new governor Ueda who comes in in April and it's anticipated then that he will be the governor to start to make the moves in terms of adjusting the yield can yield curve control strategy which which could open up some volatility in in the yens but the options market and I noted this in my daily market outlook today is has suddenly jumped in terms of implied volatility pricing for tonight when the when the when the meeting takes place when the announcement takes place the pricing for for implied volatility is trading at the moment at six year high so what does that mean well that means that the market has suddenly become a little bit nervy about the about the potential for Corrodas to make some type of some type to deviate from the the markets perceived path of him doing nothing tonight so it's going to be really interesting to see what happens there with Corrodas they're pricing the potential for a 230 to 260 pit move either side of the spot price so that would have us trading at the moment down to the 134s or up to the 139 area on the top side so I've got a I'm looking at the potential for a pop-up into that 139 as long as again we maintain momentum divergence that will be a fading opportunity an opportunity to fade fade any strength here in the dollar yen but certainly if you're in if you're trading these yen crosses or or any of the yen pairs you want to be cognizant of this meeting tonight and keep an eye on that options pricing because certainly something is something's bringing there or some big players are taking out some pre-sizable protection against positions Ozzie broke down traded to our target and exceeded it now looking for another leg lower here to test 65 40s again from there I'm watching bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for move up into trend channel resistance first stop 67 14s let's move this along what sort of time we've got here okay let's take a look at bitcoin bitcoin obviously the silver gates crisis has rattled the crypto market once again bitcoin getting awfully close to this key support zone when I'm talking about that I'm talking about this equality objective versus this swing structure here so we have an equality target 21490s can just shy so I'm watching here very closely for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side first stop is going to be the trend channel resistance corrected trend channel resistance and then on to the high volume node 23 000 so this is going to be a key test for bitcoin if we lose support here at 21 300 zone our next stop is going to be 20 700 on the downside I'm going to take a look at apple a couple of scenarios here with apple and I'm paying close attention to this one certainly if we start to see a bit of bullishness creep into the market tomorrow after these after this jobs data then I can see us breaking higher here in terms of apple just let the chart updates apologies once again for the slowness here so a couple of scenarios if we take out 156 50s 156 60 on a closing basis I want to be long apple my target is 170 which is the weekly projected trend channel resistance if we hold the current swing high I'm looking for any move back into 143 18 I'll watch for bullish reversal patterns there again once we engage on the long side to target that 170 level now let's just take a quick look at some of these yens because they have got some interesting setups so we'll start here with the sterling yen sitting just ahead of the equality objective so we have trend channel support we have equal legs versus the swing high at 163 85s gives us 160 70s coincides with trend channel support and the weekly s2 and weekly projected range support so from there I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns break through the corrective trend channel first target is going to be that swing high 163 90s and get through there then we're on to test price cycle highs 165 90s you're going to see a theme here in a minute there are a few of these that have very similar type setups euro yen has uh that's broken I was tracking this one this morning as a potential uh potential ascending triangle that's broken so that was no longer valid let's take a look at the Aussie yen so the Aussie yen I am looking for any move now into 89 40s watch for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side the Aussie yen it's just something to bear in mind seasonally March is a very good time for the Aussie yen it tends to perform pretty well from a seasonal perspective so any move into that 89 40s watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side first stop is going to be trend channel resistance 91 30s then we look for a test the high volume mode 91 90s cad yen and then I'm going to finish up with the euro Aussie and then I'll see if you guys have got any questions cad yen has a similar type of setup and structured to the the sterling yen well we've actually taken out sport there so I would I stand aside on that that cad yen so really at the moment the sterling yen is the most interesting of these yen pairs they all and the Aussie yen any move into that 88 50 area is interesting they looked they looked better this morning but obviously there's a bit of positioning going on ahead of the boj let's wrap this up with the euro Aussie here this is one of my setups that is certainly on the radar and I'll just walk you through it now quickly so what we're tracking here is a seven swing sequence so we have one two three four five six seven so we're looking for a seven swing sequence to complete into monthly projected range resistance 60 150s is the level now what I'm looking for most importantly here is as we get this pullback so any move into the trend channel support 158 80s 158 50s I'd actually watch a bullish reversal patterns to target that 161 50s but once we get up into that 161 50s competing that completing the seven swings sequence as long as we don't make a new high in the momentum study I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns from the 61 50s my target is going to be a pullback equal to this internal wave two structure here so we are looking for any pull any move up into that 61 50s maintain momentum bearish divergence so new high in price no new high in the momentum study we're watching the bearish reversal patterns there and our downside objective is symmetry swing support into 158 50s and I will leave you with that one today guys are there any questions equally if you don't have a question if you type an n in the chat box that's useful so let me know I've done a decent job of explaining things I'll put a couple of links into the chat box for those that are interested in receiving the trade plan for the S&P 500 you can request access to that Facebook group there and you will I'll let you into that group I also post some interesting institutional research and and other bits and pieces of interest and for those then that are interested in looking at the telegram group you can PM me through that through that group and I'll also give you the trading view link here those who are interested in following along with my trade ideas on a daily basis post those as a video format so easy to follow along okay I can't see any questions coming through so I'm going to take it I've done a decent job of explaining my views on the markets watch out for these well first of all watch out for the BOJ tonight second of all watch out for the non-farm payrolls tomorrow they're going to be the next directional catalyst for these markets next week obviously we have CPI coming up and and that again will be the next catalyst for some major volatility in the markets as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much