 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe, currency trader and trading coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis. So one welcome to you if you're new or a returning watcher and please don't forget to like, subscribe and share with your fellow trading colleagues if the information I provide every week is of use to you. So our trade process at Trading180 is to really apply fundamental analysis to establish our directional bias and then to apply technical analysis so supply and demand strategies to time trade entries, establish profit targets and risk management. So here we use the best of both worlds both FA fundamental analysis and TA to really combine those to make the best trading decisions. So let's get into the weekly analysis as far as the week ahead fundamentals and the news drivers potentially that may push price in our directions. So week ahead let's zoom in policy makers are going to be a busy week so policy makers in the US and Japan will be deciding on monetary policy in the coming week. That's always a big market mover and I say always but it tends to be all eyes are watching that because monetary policy is really what drives currency price. While minutes from the central banks in Australia and India will also be in the spotlight. Other important releases to follow include US and China industrial output and retail sales Canada and UK inflation data that's going to be important, Japan's trade balance and inflation again very important, Australia employment figures again another important driver employment has a direct effect on and is a sign of a growing GDP or whether the economy is still struggling and India consumer and whole cell prices. So for the majors Australia, Canada, the US and Japan we definitely have some potential market moving news so getting into the technical analysis and starting off on the dollar index and dollar index is just a measure of dollar strengths worth keeping your eye on to understand overall US dollar strength or weakness against other currencies and then we go to if we want to trade the dollar whether we're long or short we want to look at whether the Dow Jones dollar index is in a for example supply zone and then look for short trade confluences on this index with for example the dollar yen dollar Swiss dollar CAD etc so also as well quickly just before we get into the fundamentals there is a course as well just how to draw a supply and demand zones called the supply and demand zone trading free forex trading course on YouTube and it's really a beginner's course on how to draw supply and demand zones so let's get into it now so dollar index fundamentally from a directional bias perspective there are some positive signs around the dollar US initial jobless claims declined for a sixth consecutive week so applications for the US state unemployment insurance fell for a sixth straight week consistent with further improvement in a labor market and a robust economic growth so the US is the US's economy is pointing in the right direction but the US also has another problem and the Fed have another problem with consumer prices so consumer prices in the US top forecast stoking inflation concerns so prices paid by US consumers rose in May by more than forecast extending a month's long buildup in inflation that risk becoming more established as the economy strengthens and the problem with this is and I say this to the guys in my private group as well the problem that the Federal Reserve have and as well as the ECB as well the European Central Bank and other central banks around the world is inflation going higher than their 2% target sooner than the economy recovers they really want the economy to recover first and then inflation to kind of follow because if inflation gets out of hand before the economy really gets going they can't they don't really want to raise interest rates because it raising interest rates can hurt the recovery can hurt businesses borrowing lending so they really want to try not to raise interest rates before the economy and businesses have had a chance to really grow and get growing so that's a major problem for the for the central banks and again if you want to really understand inflation and interest rates once you get it it clicks you can really understand and read these these fundamental articles and really understand them on what's going on potentially in the future but you will never be able to really understand where the smart and what the smart money is thinking or where they think prices are potentially going in the future if you don't understand interest rates and inflation and to call yourself a forex trader and not understand inflation interest rates in GDP how could you really say that right you're not you're just a technical trader but if you do want to understand really the core principles of fundamental analysis and how to combine them and see what fundamentals have on the effect of fundamentals have on price go to and do a search trading 180 forex fundamental analysis trading course beginner and intermediate traders on youtube and that will really kind of clarify the things that i'm saying if you're not too sure anyway it's getting back to the dollar the dollar at the moment is a bit middle of the road there is again still negative sentiment but maybe in the short term with some positive news you could see prices go into the upside my bias at the moment is still probably more short dollar for for several reasons but it's not really a currency i'm looking to trade anyway it's not really on my list of currencies to trade at the moment simply because there are better trades and clearer divergences out there so we've got a bit of a bit of a messy chart at the moment but this in fact what i'll do is i'll just clear that lower level and all this really here is all demand right here so we are caught between two kind of supply and demand zones wide ones and again what you can do and what we do is when you find yourself in an area of wide demand what you want to do is look to kind of break that down and see where those support and resistance levels are major support and resistance levels are within that supply and demand zone and what you can see here within that demand zone there you can see that there's been levels of support support as well so those are the areas within the larger supply and demand zones that you want to get involved in for example you've also got a bit of support and resistance in and around this area here so again it separates and it gives you a bit of an area to look for if you're looking for any kind of short trades within these zones and also as well what you can do and what i do is once prices come up into a zone right here go down into a lower time frame and look for some entries right that's pretty much what we're doing it's a bit more sophisticated than that actually a lot more sophisticated than that but just as from a youtube video perspective that's basically the premise of what of how to kind of trade these zones anyways so dollar for me i'm a bit middle of the road but if you do want to be a buyer of the dollar you think there is some positive news and positive data coming out towards the dollar and and the federal reserve is is is going to get a bit more hawkish meaning that they're probably talking about tapering bonds and increasing the strength of the dollar which i think they kind of have to or forced to at the moment or at least consider talking about then you want to look for long trade look for a pull back into a demand zone and look for any kind of confluences again not necessarily trading the dxy but buying the the dollar yen dollar swiss dollar cad and all the dollar pairs and vice versa with trading the the dollar to the short side right you're looking for areas in supply where you see basically the dollar strength start to go to the downside and then look for sell trades on the dollar yen and other dollar crosses anyways moving on to the dollar yen and dollar yen so far we did prices did kind of waver around this this area here i will draw this this demand zone it's not the best demand zone in the world but it is there and dollar yen has been making high highs high lows out of the two the dollar for me is is probably the one i would choose to buy although the japanese yen in a risk off environment risk off meaning that when there is fear uncertainty in the market money tends to flow into a safe haven currency like the japanese yen so if you are buying a dollar yen one of the things you've got to look for is either negative dollar news or risk off environment where there is a potential for example outbreaks of corona virus etc just a risk off sentiment and then the dollar the yen sorry should want to increase in value so again this isn't really a pair that i'm potentially looking at but if you do want to get long i would probably say i wouldn't necessarily say this is the best demand zone even though there is an opportunity there for me long trades will probably look to be established anywhere around this 108 zone 10798 area i think for me that's a nice fresh area of demand this area of demand down here 108 is okay as well level's been touched once um so once is okay twice is um is is all right as well the best areas really to look for a touch of of demand they know in fact i'm wrong about that because here was the demand zone he's the he was the original demand zone so this in fact was the first touch right here and then that's the second touch so um the more times the level is touched the weaker it becomes um just due to you know this being um the the bargain this starts to become less of a bargain and it starts to become very very common uh because all technical traders can see this level and this is where where um the market tends to be manipulated so for me 108's if prices can come down to the 108's actually i would consider being a buyer down at the 108's uh for the us dollar versus the japanese yen um but again for buying the japanese yen look for um any kind of risk off trade sentiment before looking at getting shorter supply zones um dollar swiss pretty similar uh dollar swiss and again this level did manage to you know hold this demand zone here we've had another touch at this level positive news out around the dollar right here um the swiss national bank uh thomas jordan the governor has come out and said that um he thinks that the swiss is highly valued so it is expensive and you can see pretty much what's been happening the dollar's been getting weaker whereas the swiss franc has been getting stronger so um that is a problem for for the for central banks when they want actually a depreciated currency they want a weaker currency um so they might actually start to intervene is the rumor potentially not necessarily right now and right this week but it's always in the background and uh if they do start to become a bit more dovish and a bit more vocal about intervening then you could see prices uh start to rise um uh from a from a um buying the dollar and selling the swiss franc perspective but if you do believe again that the swiss franc is a buy based off of maybe some sort of risk off sentiment then if prices come up into this zone you do have again a bit of a level here you can see an intraday level there you also have a bit of a daily level just above it to look for any kind of short trades moving on to the dollar cad dollar cad really hasn't moved uh that much in the past a few weeks since uh really april or here sorry may uh prices have only moved um what's that i'd say somewhere in the region of highs and lows i mean about 200 pips low volatility in the market um i'm entering into that range right so the top of the range is right here potentially we could see a bit of a sell-off personally i would prefer prices came up to this one two three area before looking at getting short again if i'm looking to buy or sell any one of these i think the canadian dollar is the one i would really look to want to buy i think they are ahead of the the the us when it comes to the economic recovery although this area down at the lows does look like a decent area to look for potential buys let me just uh one second there we are yeah this demand zone at the lows looks decent for a potential buy it has been several times to be fair but i'm more thinking about a bit of a stop hunt below the the markets if you're looking for a buy which is basically be on the scope of this video but um yeah my buyers will probably be more towards the uh the downside so any pullbacks into fresh areas of supply are going to be uh selling opportunities uh new zealand dollar us dollar and uh the uh the new zealand dollar has been a bit weak but we do have uh new zealand um gdp coming out this week which could be the catalyst potentially for some upside potential if the data comes out as um as positive right so uh yeah i think one second let me just draw this probably a bit further down here um yeah decent for a long trade i do like the location don't like the level again for those of you who are in the private mentoring group really looking for you want to you want to kind of look for a stop hunt around this area if you are entering into long trades on the uh dollar um so the new zealand dollar japan um all over the place today uh the denizen dollar uh us dollar all right if you are looking for short trades potentially you think that the dollar uh the us dollar is going to get stronger than this is the uh zone to get involved in or this area here again if you want to break down the zones uh you really want to look for one of the things you look for um to kind of break down the zone is where support and resistance of your support and resistance is within those zones so if you don't see any of your support and resistance within this zone then that's one of the confluences that you can't really use until you see something here i think there probably is something around uh the hide right here so that end that area would be where i'd probably be looking for some sort of your support there resistance there so around this one uh so 0.724 area is where if you are looking for short trades to look for any kind of short trades there moving on to the pound dollar pound dollar um prices did actually end up holding this week this uh 142 1.42 1.24 250 uh area ended up being a bit of a cap uh at the moment we have we are really in the highs of the uh the range this being an expensive area right back in uh February right expensive and then when prices come back to this area we've seen that it is a bit expensive but if i was going to be a buyer or seller i'd be looking to be a buyer of this at the moment down to that area of demand uh one of the reasons really is because um the financial institutions potentially are going long as well so even uk's horror movie of a reopening has pound bulls buying so pound drop and delayed reopening temp lightly temporary uh namura says and money market see bank of england raising rates in early 2023 so the economic gloom is lifting so fast in the uk that even the skeptics are warming to the pound never mind the risk of reopening delay yeah so positive news potentially around the um the pound again there are um headwinds there are um uh concerns obviously about a potential um you know not a full reopening um of the economy here in the uk but there is um again uh fuels and i'll read the next paragraph or already up more than four percent this year from this year's low in january amid one of the world's fastest vaccine rollout programs that that trade has been an absolute beast by the way vaccine rollout um sterling is winning fresh backing as the faster than expected recovery right so gdp speculation that the bank of england is about to take a hawkish turn so you're buying the rumor selling the fact that they're about to so you want to try what banks are doing is positioning themselves uh potentially to buy the pound and if this rumor starts to take shape then they're really ahead of the curve so abn amro a long time bear just revised its revised up its pound forecast as a city group uh um ink uh bulls predict further gains to with the mora international plc and society general i say seeing the pound erasing all its post Brexit losses by the year rent so that is lots of banks looking to you know buy into potentially the pound and not necessarily always the pound but there are other currency pairs like the pound yen and the pound switch which are swiss which i am actually very bullish on but in the case of the pound dollar i think i'd be again more of a buyer if prices can come down here temporarily i think that is a really good zone to look for the 140s area to look for a long trade um and uh yeah so positive for the uh for the uh for the pound but is the pound dollar the best you know is the pound the best uh currency to buy the dollar against probably not but i think there is a much more upside potential in this um in this move so for me pound dollar buy uh also as well if you do want to get short you know basically for some pullbacks into that supply zone before looking to get short euro dollar quite and the euro dollar and really before we get into the euro dollar i just wanted to remind you guys that the the expiring demand uh course uh enrollment reopens on July the 5th right which is 22 days away from now and lots of things you get from my private mentoring you get access to the fundamental analysis spreadsheet where we can see um the currency strength from weaknesses divergences and convergence trades also as well get exclusive access to the discord group as well as uh hundreds and hundreds of videos in our trading videos daily videos where you uh where we get um i post every single day um videos regarding trade setups fundamental analysis um and really really top quality education you can pretty much see all of the videos you know in in the uh that i'm scrolling through at the moment again hundreds of videos uh daily videos that you get uh regarding supply and demand anyways let's get back to the euro dollar and the euro worst fears of enduring pain for the euro area workers are subsiding so european fears that a pandemic will lead to a legacy of disfigurement across the labor market are starting to see more of a bad dream than a reality meaning that um the economy is slowly starting to recover um when it comes to uh the the jobs and unemployment so uh a lot of banks in fact are bullish on the euro dollar overall long term and they think as the uh dollar um and the euro starts to catch up with the dollar um with the u.s economy uh from in from in an economic perspective you should start to see some higher uh euro uh prices euro dollar exchange rates so any pullback should be seeing seeing if you believe in a narrative again this is not trading advice not financial advisor but if your fundamental analysis tells you to point in that direction then this you know any kind of pullback should be looked at as buying opportunities i do like these zones right now potentially for a buy um that being my bias if you are looking for any kind of sell trades you're looking at um really this zone right here i i this this area this area is okay but it's been touched several times so i do think again the more times it's been touched when you think about supply there supply was there this is the third touch again you really want to look for um uh fresh attaches of supply those the best areas so one uh 1.23 but again if prices do come up here the question is why is the dollar a bargain why is the u.s dollar a bargain against the uh against europe but also getting again into a bit more euro news fundamentals the ecb is said to differ on bond buying uh need within the summer market so um again getting into understanding where the central bank is uh when it comes to uh bond buying and reducing and tapering and and bond bonds are basically government debt government bonds are government debt and the european central bank as long as as well as uh other central banks are supporting the economy by buying basic government debt now um they're a bit they're a bit um at odds with regards to tapering or whether they should continue to buy um government debt and support the economy and um the the more that they again support the economy and and bond buy um the the more that they can't really look to raise rates so they need to taper first and then look to start to raise rates so once they start talking about tapering meaning that reducing their bond purchases then that would be actually very positive for the uh ecb or should be positive for ecb price or hawkish um but also as well it can't keep buying bonds forever because the more they keep money printing to buy bonds then there's an inflation risk which again ecb officials warn of yeah despite extending the stimulus because stimulus causes inflation right because it devalues the currency so again they're in a bit of a spot they're in a bit of a hard rock and a hard place um and uh on how to manage the economy but again the talk really should be start to see that the european central bank are um read anything regarding tapering or their change in stance on uh on on on bond buying then uh the euro area or the euro should want to be a potential buyer continue its upward trend anyways moving on towards the euro yen euro yen and um euros coming euro yen is coming down to a really nice uh place a really nice place i really want to get involved in at the moment so prices can come down for example to uh just a bit lower potentially to this area here i do want to be a potential buyer we do have uh supply sorry demand there and a bit of a bit more continued supply in fact coming down here but again my bias is really to the upside um and pullbacks represent buying opportunities so again euro um we're putting a bit more bullish on the euro than i am on the japanese yen so now as prices come down into this you know demand zone um it's time to look for potential buy trades so again for me it's a confluence you've got resistance resistance bit of support around here so there's one two three fifty area i think if prices do come down into that zone for me uh look for potential buy opportunities if an opportunity presents itself buy and the right opportunity presents itself um so yeah that's that's where my uh my mindset is that again if you get some risk off sentiment come into the market and pull back into a supply zone then looking for sell trades um buying the japanese yen uh ozzy dollar ozzy dollar for me potential buys uh even though the australian dollar um there's better trades to buy the australian dollar um against i wouldn't necessarily look for um um the us dollar but there are there are decent opportunities and i think if prices do come down to this this this 0.765 area it's it gets seen as okay i guess in fact i think i might have to uh end up i think this is probably where demand zone is so you need a bit more of a deeper pull back before looking at getting long for those of you who are in the private members group there is an intraday um uh cpr zone guys you guys can definitely see it which is basically here right that's where the zone is all right cpr zone right there but from a daily uh perspective you're looking at a portfolio pull back into yeah this 0.7623 area to look for any kind of uh long trades if you want to get long you don't necessarily have to looking for short trades i think for me my bias would be again maybe up into the 0.786 areas uh around here would be a really nice area to look for short trades i'm not really too keen on this uh this this supply zone here um but again my bias probably more buying australian dollars than the um than the australian dollar but it's not really a pair i'm i'm currently interested in uh ozzy yen a pair that i am interested in and uh looking for potentially for buy trades so any pullbacks this week um or in next coming weeks for me uh are going to be buying opportunities whether it's the end of here or around here again the australian dollar in a risk on environment is really the one to buy and the japanese yen in a risk on environment is the one to sell so um looking for uh some some some long trades and waiting for uh any kind of pullback on the daily and then getting involved potentially on the intraday but if you do want to get short on this uh currency pay i would say look for pullback into this zone here before looking at any kind of short trades again you need probably some sentiment uh drivers to really uh want to short the uh ozzy yen and finally gold and gold has uh benefited from the uh from a dollar weakness and fears around uh dollar inflation right getting out of hand and again the narrative really is if you start to see um if if the fed if inflation still starts to rise which it looks like it is and if it isn't temporary like the like the federal reserve are saying then you're going to see gold continue to go to the upside because in what is inflation inflation is um is devaluation right and um as as uh inflation is telling you that um the rate at which your currency is being devalued every year or every month for example so higher inflation means higher devaluation which means that your purchase in power of your currency is less and less and to hedge against inflation traders buy gold which is basically what's been happening here you know traders have been buying gold so any pullbacks into a demand zone um i think nearest demand zone at the moment although this this is a bit of demand it's not really the way that i would kind of draw it unless we make higher highs right and then a pullback into that zone would be desirable so for me i think the best area of prices can go back into this 18 13 you want to be long gold which is basically short against the dollar then that's the uh that's probably the best zone at the moment to look for any kind of long trades from a daily um uh demand zone perspective if you are looking for any kind of short trades then uh these supply zones would be what you are looking for and um there is a fundamental article which says that gold has the weekly loss as dollar and yields rebounds of gold fur was treasury yields climbed from three month low and dollar strength in the metal erased some short lived gains that were made in the wake of a us inflation report so i mean so this is only really kind of a short term um uh report but um i think the bigger picture is more to do with again inflation concerns again if inflation starts to next inflation cpi figures for the us actually come out lower then i think gold should you know it should strengthen the narrative that inflation uh is is is um high inflation is temporary and then you should just ask to see gold want to uh sell off a little bit as well as the dollar and any kind of dollar trades actually go higher so uh that's it for this week uh hope you guys enjoyed the content again don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow colleagues and uh hope you have it we'll have a great trading week and take care