 Welcome everybody to not financial invest live not financial buy slob. I think this is episode 20 and as always I've got to my compatriots Ben from into the cryptiverse and guy from coin bureau guy Welcome to the show. I'm glad you're gonna get out of Dubai very soon. So it's not so hot Thank you, Rob. Thanks for having me. I'm sorry to hear you so husky. I hope you're I hope you're on the mend Makes me sound better though. Makes me sound better and Ben Thanks for for coming on For being on the show and of course we got to start off with a couple of things first of all Ben How was that party? How was Bitcoin Miami? That was good. The party was a lot of fun We had about I think like 350 people somewhere between 350 to 400 people there and Yeah, it looks like you're showing it. Yeah, it was a lot of fun You know, they were mostly ITC subscribers. We had a few other people come as well And we just sort of partied the night away. I like it until they until we had the building had a has like a Like a sound thing like you can't you can't really make noise after midnight. So We did have to sort of wrap it up. I just tell people they you know, they don't have to go home They can't stay here, right? So, yeah, I think a lot of people have a lot of fun. There's a lot of people who who met people I got to meet a lot of the people on my team for the first time. I Have a lot of software developers that help with the website and whatnot and My wife flew down on Friday To go to go to this party and she's like, well, I want to meet your team. I was like, well, I want to meet them, too It was it was good. It was good to meet a lot of these a lot of these people and Yeah, as you can see, we had a had a lot of fun and There was there was a picture of David Lynn the awkward daily brothers Tiffany Fong a lot of people showed up and so that was a lot of fun and then the conference Do you show me that sort of ramble about the conference or just a question? Yeah, just just just ramble on because because to me like I Know that that this conference was down big time Like whether it was 25,000 or 35,000 and now it was at 15 14,000 people. It was a lot less So I know you didn't go to a lot of engagements and speaking engagements But what was like the feeling there when you talk to the people? I'm gonna guess that they were pretty hyped up because they got to meet you and everybody else But how was it as far as like it's going to the moon or like I just got to wait Yeah, I don't really there wasn't nearly as much price talk I guess this year There were a few people that were like curious as to you know, what what I thought Like the people that I would meet would ask me like what I thought was gonna happen when we could There was but but I got sort of the sense that people there this year at least we're not like the tourist crowd it was more so the the people that are going to stick around and and I met a lot of people that are like trying to start businesses in In sort of the various sectors of crypto last year what I found interesting was like it felt to me like last year There were a lot more people, but also it felt like a majority of the businesses were like mining companies Like just so many mining companies. I was being pitched by a mining company like every single day like multiple times a day last year This year there were mining companies, but there weren't nearly as much Probably because some of them just went bankrupt. I mean, you know, it's probably what happened and But there were a lot of other companies and there's a lot of there's a lot of companies Trying to innovate in various various sectors of crypto. I did meet some people that are trying to do Actually, I I did go to Michael Saylor's talk and one of the things he was sort of going on about for a while was trying to incorporate Bitcoin into just the everyday like everyday business operations of a company like so like if you if you go to a company And and you you buy something you can redeem like one Satoshi, right? And if you write a review you can redeem a Satoshi and if someone buys the product that you Because they read your review then you get a Satoshi, right? So like I the idea that he was sort of going on going on with was well, you know How do you incorporate Bitcoin into it's like kind of like a like, you know credit card points and stuff like, you know getting rewarded And so I actually he so he talked about that and then I actually met someone who Who was actually they they were trying to launch something pretty much with that with that in their business model? And so there are there definitely are people trying to incorporate Bitcoin into Like into their business and I think partially to I last year there was Some more focus on I mean look if you say anything about anything other than Bitcoin on stage at these conferences, you're gonna get food, right? Never what I guys name is But but I will say like, you know It did seem like a lot more people had sort of gravitated more towards like, you know The safer that plays this year like Bitcoin and theory like and theory because I think a lot of them and just got they're like Yeah, like, you know, the all-coin market dropped a ton, you know down 95% a lot of them and They just want to I think they just make sure they just stick with something that's going to stick around and you know Bitcoin is that thing There were there were still a lot of people At a lot of the talks I can be like sailors talk was crowded There are some people that came out and did their announcement for or talked about, you know like running for political office like presidency and they were of course talking about Bitcoin and there was a lot of people there to hear them talk Cynthia Lumas was there she was talking about Bitcoin and Look the the politicians that were there obviously were very pro-Bitcoin, right? Or at least they say they are I mean, it's hard to know, right? They'll say anything for a vote, but If Rob if Rob were running for president like I would definitely believe that he's pro-Bitcoin But you know, you never know whether you people that just sort of come out and say they're pro-Bitcoin but I mean look it's better than to have these opinions and uh, then that's sort of having the reverse opinion, which is You know anti-Bitcoin, so we're definitely a lot of like the political You know people in the political sphere there Trying to you know get their platform off the ground and whatnot And um, yeah, I mean like you know the the the most fun I have at these things Is it's just now we're meeting people talking to people Uh, you know even people that aren't running a business just people that literally flew there um Just to go, you know, and I I met I met three guys I lived eight years in albuquerque Um, because I went to you know grad school there and I worked out there for a few years and I met three guys there From albuquerque and they weren't there because of you know, they weren't there running a company They weren't there doing anything that they were just there because they Because they like bitcoin, you know, and they wanted to go to the conference. So oh, that was pretty cool Uh, just just see just see people go Um, not everyone has you know some agenda. They just want to go learn about bitcoin support it and um, just sort of support the asset class as a whole so It was definitely less of a tourist seafield this year Ah, I got you. So I know like I mean that was cool. Sorry. I missed it. I'll make it up when we go to are we going Tennessee next year Yes, next year next year Okay, I'm gonna make a promise. I don't do promises too often I have two promises one when bitcoin gets a hundred k I'm gonna jump in that pool or the one in Puerto Rico one of those two is gonna happen And two is I will go to Nashville, Tennessee For the bitcoin conference just so I can attend that sweet that sweet sweet party. Hey guy Just real quick. I think didn't you go to bitcoin Miami last year or two years ago? Yeah Yeah, no, I went last year Wasn't it like because I mean you you can't compare from but from what ben said like What was the feeling back then because last year was kind of like we just came out of 2021 Was it like more of like a touristy like hey, this is going to go to the moon and 150 ks around the corner Or was it more subdued Then uh, then what you thought it was going to be I I was kind of surprised in a way. I mean bear in mind. It was my first sort of crypto conference It was my first kind of experience of this sort of thing So because you know, it's been been sort of it's stuck in the uk for so long during covet and all that so I was I was kind of wide-eyed throughout the whole thing um But it did strike me there was there did seem to be a really positive vibe there because obviously by that point I mean this was just sort of pre terror and everything going down the toilet. So But I mean people still knew I think there was still an expectation that An acknowledgement that the bull market was kind of you know on its last legs And it wasn't going to last a heck of a lot longer obviously people didn't foresee what was what was coming around the corner, but um There was still a lot of optimism there And there did seem to be a really positive vibe and I think it's um It ties into a lot of what ben was saying There were just I did meet a lot of people there who had just come to to to check it out and were just curious Just wanted to see what the whole thing was about and they're like, yeah, I you know, I bought a little bit I don't really I don't work in it. I do this that and the other but They just wanted to come and see what it was about um, but yeah, the vibe was certainly Very certainly overwhelmingly positive even with a kind of looming bear market as it were Um, and I was I was really, you know, I was really heartened by the fact that how how many people were also there to do business You know that there was clearly so much going on so many people having ideas and looking to looking to take this Take this thing in one direction or another which which I thought was was very bullish long term. So But yeah, I mean certainly Looking at it looking at what this year was like and you know, I can't compare like with like but It certainly seemed it certainly seemed more subdued from a distance I guess the one thing I sort of noticed about this one in particular was I mean, you know I can't comment on the attendance because you know, I wasn't there But it did there was a kind of lack of any sort of big announcement this year I thought which was a bit of a shame because you know, that's usually Not just bullish for the you know for the market, but also kind of just reinvigorates people a little bit. You know, you think El Salvador adopting bitcoin and then last year was kind of Republic and things like that. So Yeah, there didn't seem to be much of that this year, but then hey, you know, we're in the middle of crypto winter What do you expect? Exactly and we're going to get to that in a bit The next question is going to be about ledger and then the market apathy But I will say there was one I felt kind of a big announcement which from from jack mollars and where he talked about Lightning is going to branch out into 65 different countries, which is going to bring in 3 billion people and I did have I did a quick video on that and we talked about it and What I did was I said, hey, if you I gave a link to strike and there's always going to be a link down My description from now on if you Give me your username people who are watching this video. I will send you Uh Some type some money via strike just to show you how easy it is And I think that was the same thing that ben I think you were talking about as far as michael Saylor said like if you do a review you get this much and so on and so forth I just want to see if strike was that fast and I've been Moving a little bit of funds around for people who have put their username in And uh, it it works like that the the fees are like a penny sometimes too And you can move as much as you want to to again It's in 65 different countries. So I like that part And uh, I see that's a good thing moving forward before we move on. I have to ask one question Which is let me bring this in So the party was great and I like to see that the next question I have for ben is is crypto crow Just that super tall or his wife just that super short Because I think you you met him at the party and I'm like and I was I was looking at him like Is that guy like six nine or somebody? So uh, as the planes were flying by one of the wings almost clipped them No, he's he's like, uh, he's like seven feet tall Dude, I was I was looking I was like I go man, maybe he's white But then I saw some other ones and I'm like, uh, very interesting. So he's uh, he's a really tall guy Yeah, nice guy. If you know if you guys don't follow crypto crow. He's one of the og He's one of the ones that I used to watch when I got in 2017 and the one that's uh turned me into uh, uh Ada and going forward. So there is that Interesting stuff. Thank you gentlemen. Let's get the second part Which is ledger uh I know ben there was uh, you were on A panel on twitter spaces where you guys talked about ledger last night And a lot of people there was a lot of Descending opinions, but I just want to get everybody's thing and I'll start with with uh with guy first because I know guy you covered this Ben you were in bitcoin my ambulance happened. I sure you heard about it So ledger The whole thing is with them being able to open up the process of storing your your private keys and your seed phrase and thing of that Are they wrong to do this? Or is this a step in the right direction for certain people? So guy, I'm going to start with you What do you think about this? I know you you you cover this a couple of times in different videos Yeah I think first up I think To start with you kind of got to give ledger A little bit of credit here and I'm you know that comes with big caveats, but I think their intentions in a way Were right to an extent like the the the whole thing with seed phrases It ties into sort of general crypto UX, which is which is terrible on the whole It's terrible and you're not going to onboard a billion people With this with this current system. It's just it's it's not fit for purpose So I think ledger you have to give them some credit for at least Trying to address that So I think it came from a good place. I also think probably the the the the main reason Why they were looking to push this upgrade was because it's a it's a it's a revenue stream for them Um, I think that was probably the main you know the main thing behind it Subscription revenue is is pretty useful for a company like ledger which is selling a device Most people will only buy one of and they'll only need to buy it once so You know, I think okay I think they were doing it for some of the right reasons, but also obviously, you know for revenue, which is Fair enough. I mean there, you know, they've got a they've got to pay the bills So but the way it was handled Was just a disaster, you know a lesson in You know a lesson in how not to do these sorts of things and I mean the question that I just kept Finding myself going back to was did they not did they not gain this out? Did they not sort of, you know Ask internally have some focus groups all sit down around a big table and go What might what might people Object to about this, you know, what's what doesn't fit with this, you know What might what might people's complaints be? and I kind of feel if they if they've done that if they you know Beta tested it properly then perhaps it it wouldn't have you know, it wouldn't have been It wouldn't have come out in the way it did because it was just you know, it was it was a disaster for them And very badly handled and you know, they spent the rest of they spent all the time since kind of doing this Damage limitation, you know out there on out there on social media and and what have you so Yeah, it's it's not been great and obviously it challenges The heart of the matter I guess is the fact that We've we've learned we've we've all learned a heck of a lot about how hardware wallet work and the fact that yeah Okay, we we are just one firmware upgrade away from You know it being possible to export the private keys from the device and that is something we were told was not possible and now it seems it is and and that's that's pretty troubling so Yeah, I think um I it was it was certainly a a disaster from a pr point of view Like I say, I understand I kind of understand their reasoning for do it for doing it or wanting to push this service But yeah, it could have been handled so much better Maybe that's it. Maybe that was that that was the crux of it. Maybe it's just because We didn't know that they could do that and I'm like surprised we can do that Then what do you think here on on on this on this ledger wallet and I'm just gonna throw it out there I think in some of the parts. I think they're correct and I'll just let you go from there then I mean so I kind of I guess I'll reiterate what I said yesterday in the spaces. Um so I mean We need better solutions. I think to onboard billions of people, right? Like billions of people aren't going to get onboarded if they have to like You know store 24 Freight, you know key phrase somewhere I mean, that's what I that might actually be very difficult for some people to do Uh, you know, depending on on what their circumstances in life are to just like, you know, have a safe spot to store that sort of stuff um So I I mean I get the idea of of trying to come up with a solution That appeals to more people. I think one of the issues is that, you know, you're coming out with a solution During the pre-having year where all the tourists are gone And the tourists are are your target audience, right? Like if you're still here in 2023 I imagine that you don't really you're not going to really trust any Any third party with your keys, you know, I mean like, you know, you you you live through the luna stuff in the Celsius and the block five and the voyager The ftx And the list goes on and on right like you live through that And so you're probably sitting here like well, why would I trust my keys to some third party? You know So I I think to some degree like, you know, how they marketed this product in say 2023 or sorry in 2021 Or if they had marketed this product in maybe like 2025 or something It it probably would have gone over a lot better But also had they marketed I I think they should have rolled it out as a completely new product Not not just something that was back working proud. I mean that the like the technology is always there I mean if you understand the tech like I mean they can always up, you know, roll out a firmware upgrade and and um do something like this the issue I guess is that Um, it's been it hasn't been open source. So there is there has always been some levels of trust me, bro, right? Has right like there has always been this element of it and um And so yeah, like now we're we're sort of Dealing with this idea of you know, a lot of people are kind of coming to terms with the idea that oh like this has always been possible and and now You know, they don't they want it to not be rolled out for their device Because you know just the idea of it of it being something that could happen is enough to make them extremely uneasy and I I mean I I can I can relate to that, you know to that feeling of uneasiness Um, so yeah, I I think if they wanted to if they wanted to and I guess this should serve I guess as a warning to other companies, right? Um, uh, you know, if you're going to roll out a product just make sure you're not going to To really upset, you know the the core audience, you know the core customer that you have Um, you want to you know, if you're if you're going to roll out some new completely new thing then You know rolling it out as a completely new product might have been a better way to go because if they had done something like that Then I think a lot of people would have been more comfortable. They would have been like, all right Well, yeah, I can understand why some people might want to use that but it's not for me But in this case, right? I think everyone was freaking out because it's like wait I don't want that ability to have you know to occur with the vice that I got because I thought we were told that You know that wasn't possible. Um, yeah, yeah, yeah Budweiser So yeah, so I mean it's it's it's the same thing But there was this thing on twitter spaces and I I like the back and forth you guys had only I'll try the link in the description It was lay I forgot her last name real nice lady real smart And she was talking about she goes look everybody can do this They can do this people didn't think that they could deal with the internet now I've got grandma's sending emails back and forth And then your point was it's not about If they can do it because everybody can do it is the thing is will they do it? And when I when I heard that because there's two descending opinions I look at it like this like I was in vegas a couple weeks ago with my brothers I was trying to explain them about Bitcoin which went over horribly and also talked about like how a ledger works They're like, let me get this straight That this is the new innovation that is going to change the financial ecosystem throughout the globe And you're going to trust it on a piece of paper that you wrote down my entire life savings That makes zero sense and I was like dammit. That is actually true I mean it makes sense for us right because we're going to use a piece of paper But we're like this is the most advanced thing of all time. This is the greatest thing Oh also give me a pen or a feather pen and a paper and I'll just write all this stuff down And it'll be fantastic and don't lose this because this is your entire life savings. Don't screw this up They're like that's dumb And and when when you guys are going back and forth? Yes, they can do it They can do it But like you both said I think when you better options Whatever that is Because if you look at it you're like, why don't we have something better right now? And that's just it. So I'll just ask you guys this anybody can take this one. What's the better option? That's out there. What can we do? Rob, I wanted to just briefly. Sorry guy, I'll let you I just want to briefly say that I think it's somewhat Funny how like we go to bitcoin to avoid the banks, right? Right? But then some people then store their private keys at a bank like in a ball. So it's kind of like we've just sort of come full circle Exactly. Sorry. I don't know if I interrupt a guy. No guy. What do you got? What's the what's our way out of here? That is that is a multi billion dollar question. I think I'm trying to remember what I was reading recently about The guy's ethereum. There is an ethereum In an ethereum request for comments, I think it's not an improvement proposal To to introduce to introduce some new kind of wallet functionality Which I think the ultimate aim if I remember rightly is to kind of move away from this whole seed phrase business um I will have to see if I can if I can dredge up the article and that so but um It's certainly, you know, it's certainly being addressed and I think I think ethereum from what I've seen a kind of leading leading the way on it but Yeah, other than that, I don't I don't know the answer and I think that's you know, that that is something that is a potential goldmine for whoever can figure it out because Yeah, as as both ben and I have said it's What we've got currently doesn't work and you're you know, your brothers have a very good point This is the future of finance. This is this, you know, incredible invention And you have to go and get a pen It's like that does yeah, that's kind of hard Hard to justify, isn't it? Yeah, I mean, I mean don't give them don't give more ammunition Those guys are both morons, but I mean on one thing they were correct I I will say this though There was it's a point from jay treasurer Tresor is open source and there was a couple of things that it was kind of surprising to me which was just how Quick the reaction was for it for ledger, but there was an article That just broke yesterday Cyber security firm claims it hacked the private key from a treasurer hardware wallet And when you see this you're like great that means that treasurer is awful. I'm never going to buy it And this was actually put out by woody wordheimer the guy who was on stage and I guess there was a thing And then I you know, when you read the actual article Uh, it says the hacker needs to be in physical possession of your treasurer Not only that tom crown point is off to me. He goes that's not new rob That's been going on forever. They've actually put that in their documentation And there is uh, uh, the written word about this So like when we see these things especially on twitter It kind of like gets us all going like I see I told you I told you I told you But unless we go for the story behind the story we'll never get it right So me personally I just think I'll just Equal your sentiment. I think they should have ruled out one part for like uh ledger noob Or ledger pleb and they can deal with you know holding on to that that private key and then ledger og or you know Uh ledgers like us and they just kind of keep it on there and that's it So, all right, so that's ledger. I'm going to spawn supposed to talk to them today So watch out for that video. We'll see how that works out. Can you ask them? Can you ask them rob? Obviously you're going to talk about everything that's been happening the last week or so Can you ask them who? Signed off on the thing around the neck Oh, yeah, I gotta see that Because that is that is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen. Well, it's it's it's a same marketing team from budweiser They came in and go look we got a great idea. That's what we're going to do And that was it. It is dumb, but uh, you know, hey whatever All right But I think it I think it sort of obscures a good obscures a good point because we're talking about the fact that yeah If you want to if you want to crack a trezzor, obviously, you know, you've got to have a lot of knowledge Do it but you've also got to have the device itself, but it just it should remind us all that not only it's not only a case of Keeping the seed phrase safe until until something better comes along It's also you've got to keep the device safe as well. You know, it's it's you can't you can't walk around With it on your neck or or flashing it around the place And I think that ties into a kind of bigger thing as well That if you're a crypto holder, especially if you're holding lots of it, you know The first light your first line of defense is not to advertise that fact And I think that's something that people can't be reminded of enough don't go around Advertising the fact boasting about the fact that you hold x number of bitcoin or however many trillion pepe or whatever it is You know Keep that's that's a big part of I think what a sensible crypto holder should be about, you know They don't they don't go out broadcasting it from the rooftops This is why Exactly. This is why I still drive a 2018 dodg grand caravan minivan. It's very simple. No one believes I'm a baller All right. So so there's that part. Let's let's finish this up and talk about apathy Where are we in this cycle because right now like as people know Four-year cycles so far are still intact. There's always a having all time my dip reset. We happened in 2012 happened again 2016 2019 And now here we are 2020 to 2023. We're in this reset period and I got to tell you the market itself I mean I was kind of I got to tell you guys I was kind of hoping for bitcoin to go below 25 000 because I've been interested to talk about But it didn't and it's kind of moving sideways And here we are Which is boring just super boring Unfortunately, if it goes down real far great, that's that's exciting if it goes up real far It's exciting. Where are we in this cycle benz? I'll start with you because You're big on the cycles and the dominance. Is this going to be the next thing for us until 2024 25? Are we going to see some fireworks at some point? So, I mean if we just look at what previously has happened and I mean look we I With uh with so few data points, I always we have we I guess we always should be careful to extrapolate too much because things can change, right? Sure But I mean based on the context of history and and again like so far things seem to be working out in a very similar pattern, right? You you peak in in late 2021 just like we did in 2017 and 2013 Then you have your bear market year 2014 2018 2022 and then you have your your uh, your prehaving year Which historically Is the most boring year. It's also my favorite year typically because You know, yeah, prehaving year is the year that you can really focus on on building stuff. Um Um, you you in the back of your mind, right? You know that next year is the having right? We know that we also know that next year is likely going to be a period when the Fed or reserve will pivot Um, it's a it's a monetary policy. Um and so It's interesting because it it is very cyclical. I would argue that You know, there's not a good chance of bitcoin Going, you know anywhere near its all-time highs this year, right nowhere close to them. Um Normally what happens in the prehaving years is we get a rally, right? and And then that rally and then everyone calls for new highs, right? A lot of people think we're going to go go to the moon and and then and then we we then end up spending a lot of that Arrest of the year like fading that rally. So in in 2019 we rallied until late june And then after that we faded it for the next nine months, right until we had the march 2020 capitulation after the inversion of the yield curve or after the un-inversion of the yield curve that occurred in early 2020 Early 2020 right in march of 2020 By the in in 2019 when bitcoin hit its high for that year Of like 14k it occurred just before the deepest inversion of the three months in the 10 year yields So if you think we've already hit the deepest inversion Then there's a chance highs are in for bitcoin for the year if if you want to take that as the context There's also some other things that you can look at as well Like we some of the momentum we're starting to lose a little bit Like we we had a weekly close below the 10 week estimate when that happened in 2019 and met the highs were in um You can see you can also see by the way that the altcoin market is showing a lot of weakness relative to bitcoin Right like bitcoin still above its 20 week SMA But total two which excludes bitcoin is not it already had a weekly close below it Total three which excludes bitcoin anetherium already had two weekly closes below the 20 week SMA Um, and this is how the altcoin market just gets so wrecked and why the dominance should go higher, right? I don't know if you've heard this theory before I've never heard this. Yeah, this is new to me. This is crazy. Okay Look at where total three is with respect to its march low like the altcoin market collectively is only about five percent above the march low um whereas bitcoin Whereas bitcoin from where it currently sits is about 25 percent Away from its march low So you can see just how weak the altcoin market is so imagine a scenario Where bitcoin fades back down to the march low, which I do think will probably happen at some point this year and we could go lower Where does that lead the altcoin market if it's already at the march low? Basically, right and that's how the altcoin market just gets so wrecked During the bear market year in the prehaving year. So I I think you know, I'm looking at the social metrics Um, I you know, I have no problem being honest about this like I I lost a thousand youtube subscribers last month Oh, no, I know and and but it has me wondering what losing two two thousand would feel like, you know, I mean like Off your 700,000 subscribers. Yeah, that sounds awful But but in all seriousness like this is a very like I this is a very cyclical component of crypto Right like it's a necessary component where where the social interest just completely fades And no one cares anymore And and that's what leads to the rapid deterioration of the altcoin market because the liquidity is gone Like all the people that were there to buy the dips and alts They're no longer there to do that and the only people that left Are are the people like, you know that are watching this stream and they're more likely I hope right you get the blue chips as opposed to the meme coins No, and that's why the blue chips support are, you know, hold up a little bit better than the altcoin market So look as I said on the spaces last night If bitcoin is going to have another push higher Which again, it's already starting to face some resistance there as as some of these momentum indicators are starting to turn back down Even like stuff like the mac d which I never even use It's starting to to get somewhat shaky And and and once it did in 2019 it meant the highs were in as well If bitcoin is going to show any renewed strength. I think it needs to do so in june But I think for the most part we're likely going to see crypto Like just it kind of be like this where you could easily see a slightly bearish bias For for in the second half of the year, right? So like, you know, you're thinking like july august september october november I could see You know a slightly bearish bias um One thing that I I thought I wanted to run remind people of Is I I did a series and I'll do an update soon on on my channel about like the worst case scenario for crypto Yeah and what's interesting is um If you compare it to the dot-com crash Then you know the dot-com crash, I believe really started kicked off in like In like april that sort of timeframe and it ended two and a half years later in october So if you treat april 2021 as the real peak two and a half years after that I know it sounds crazy, but it's this october, you know, I mean like almost two and a half years We're more than two years away from that crazy that mania phase. So I'm starting to think That this this october like q3 q4 is is when you really want to start paying attention Especially especially to the altcoin market, and you know, I don't say that lightly, right? That's you heard to hear first folks october sell everything and go into alts Just But I would say go to the q3 q4 time period. I think because by that point We there's a good chance that the the altcoin market has has been sufficiently wrecked, right? It usually takes like, you know a couple years And then we'll we'll see where we are but so I would say like I think the summer like I think people should just enjoy their summer um And then in in q3 q4 it'll be uh, we'll start to gear up for the halving and everything I gotta I I gotta agree with you on most that stuff But there is one thing and I'm gonna I'll have guy talk about it Which is the liquidity Is it is the liquidity still here because of the meme coins guy? Is that is that the reason? I know you you covered pepe you see a lot of money sloshing around in that area Is that what it is and then before I forget? That ceiling I know we're supposed to talk about that just real quick. Where do you think we're going with that? Um, okay liquidity. I mean, yeah, there's there's there's definitely some liquidity or there was In order for in order for in order for things like pepe I mean, I'm kind of guessing pepe and and all the others have have sucked an awful lot of it out One thing I did notice recently the the amount of usdt in circulation is at record high levels at the moment um usdt is obviously sort of mostly used for for leverage and trading so You know that suggests that there is there is money sloshing around certainly in the at the more kind of degenerate end of the market um But I mean, yeah in in terms of kind of where we are what sort of phase we're in I mean, we're in a phase of I think I guess you could call it a mixture of sort of boredom and Desperation, you know, I think and I think the boredom is exactly why we saw the meme coins kind of explode out of it You know it go stratospheric because people wanted something to people wanted something to do, you know, there was there was still some liquidity um People wanted some gains that they're just not getting anywhere else in cryptos So so, you know, there you are. There's there's your reason for for meme coins. Um And in terms of in terms of the debt scenes, you know, I was I was reading something interesting the other day The psychology of money. Have you have you come across that book before I've seen it I gotta I have been recommended by that book. I need to get that book Yeah, it's a it's a good one. There's lots of lots of, you know, very very good home truths in that But he I've just read an interesting chapter just the other day. Um, where he talks about How pessimism, you know pessimism will get you on the news if you say The market's gonna crash tomorrow, you know, you'll be on prime time if you if you say, oh, well, I think it's gonna be Okay, you know, we'll see a gradual uptick over over several years. No one's gonna want to know So in terms of the debt ceiling, I'm you know, I it's tempting to say because I mean, we are getting really close now It's it's getting a little worrying um And it doesn't need, you know, I don't need to reiterate what what happens if if the debt ceiling isn't resolved And it's and it's here, you know, US government runs out of money That is that is not good. And as other people have pointed out, you're the least of your worries then will be crypto um, there'll be much more to much more to worry about but um You know, I'm gonna I'm gonna go against the prevailing view and I'm gonna be optimistic about the debt ceiling because I think they I think they will get it sorted out. Um, but it's certainly something to It's it's a fascinating thing to watch. It's like a car crash Happening in slow motion. Just hope everyone just everyone just hits the brakes in time. Um But yeah, it's it's uh, it's fascinating that it's just got so close. What are we six days away from the first June now? Yeah, and I will just say and then just uh, uh, sorry Yeah, I just to say like everybody congratulations. You have front row seats to see America collapse I don't think that we're going to see a default. Usually what happens is it goes the very end There's some posturing. There's a little bit of politics and all of a sudden. Whoa, we were able to raise it We just did it two years ago and we keep doing it every couple of years So it's not a big deal So there is that part and then guy just to just to touch on we talk about it getting on getting on tv Ben said the same thing in one of our very first nfa lives and I was talking about dc ang and he said pessimists pessimists sound smart But the bulls make money and that's really what it comes down to and I know right now everybody We we see the markets. It's very an apathy and ben guy talked about this, but there are better days ahead It's just right now. It's gonna kind of be kind of boring. So That's that's it for for our little banter going back and forth Why don't we get into a little bit of q&a unless we got anybody else want to add something before I find some good questions Yeah, well while while you're looking for questions. I will see say something about the stablecoin market So usd t market cap has gone up a lot But if you add up, you know usd t usd c b usd and die It's it the stablecoin market cap has been in a sustained downtrend really since the second quarter of 2022 um Which is I mean it's it's it's happening, but you're right I mean like you know usd t has gone up But everything else most everything else in terms of the stablecoin market has been sort of in a slow bleed For for a little over a year now Now we'll see I mean bonance has been burning a lot of b usd Isn't it because of because of the thing with paxos? I mean that that can't account for all of it. So right and then also the other thing I wanted to mention with regards to the death ceiling is is um, you know, there's a good chance So they would avoid a default, but I think the bigger thing is is what you know the the um The us credit rating could be downgraded because of this and that's probably the bigger risk in all this And then the other thing too is is once the debt ceiling is resolved Then they're going to be able to go fill up the treasury general account again by issuing t bills And that's going to likely drain, you know, six or seven hundred billion dollars from from the from financial markets um One of the one of the things that you know Yellen has done for what the last how many months now she's been She's been draining the tga And by draining it it has to some degree offset some of the qt that the federal reserve is doing But on the other side of the debt ceiling They're going to have to refill it, right? They can't just leave it at you know, whatever it is right now And when they refill it that sucks in liquidity back It sucks liquidity out of out of markets. And so then you kind of have the double kind of double qt You have the fed um raise or you have the fed rolling up assets from the balance sheet And then you also have The treasury general account being refilled. So I'd say those are the two bigger the bigger things because that If they default it's got to be one of the dumbest things, right? Like if they actually do that, but I think the bigger thing is is is um, you know Does the credit what happens with the credit rating and and um all that liquidity being sucked out? Yeah, well, of course in 2011 they they resolved it at the last minute. It was 2011, wasn't it? I think so in 2011 they resolved at the last minute The credit rating still got downgraded and the stock market tanks 17 percent or something wasn't it so Exactly so What that would look like for crypto. I I dread to think it will be huge But you know, it would be great It'd be like for people like us and you watching the video, you know what this is This is just opportunity because as it goes down and it gets downgraded Well at some point like ben just talked about they're going to refill everything and they're going to start printing at some point It's just a time game. That's what it comes down to. All right So that's what we have for that The crypto development in china have you guys heard about this story about how china They ban they ban bitcoin they ban everything and this and they say okay we're going to do a cvdc the digital yuan and then they're going to do a Allow for trading in hong kong and then also there was something about a state-run metaverse the question that I have though is that all these different You know metaverse plays and things like that I wonder if china is going to be on their own private blockchain Because they're all blockchain not bitcoin Or is it really going to be like okay now he can come over here and start buying pepe I don't understand which which way they're going to go with this one anybody have anything thoughts on this I my guess would be that yeah, it'll be it'll be private and permissioned and the ccp will have oversight of the whole damn thing um Yeah, I I'd be I'd be extremely surprised if they if they did it if they did it any other way um And in terms of in you know in terms of hong kong, it's it's fascinating Did you see did you see cz's tweets was it yesterday? I think you put it out? um China uh cctv was was talking about crypto They they had a set like a minute long segment on crypto and it was generally very positive I don't think they actually said anything bad about it. Obviously. This is state-run tv. Just to be honest crazy. Yeah Yeah, yeah, and and cz was saying, you know the chatter and the chatter in sort of chinese language channels is Is extremely, you know, they're very excited so I mean Yeah, I think I think it'll be an interesting one to watch hong kong I think it'll be an interesting bellwether of of what we can of what we might be able to expect When other places kind of get their act together and regulate the industry because You know from what I from what I understand retail trading in hong kong is going You know, it's going to be very very regulated the exchanges have to regulate there are all sorts of conditions for buyers You know, they're only you're only going to be able to get your hands on A select number of some of the biggest ones So, you know, there's no no dj ends aping into aping into pepe by hong kong But it will be it will be very interesting to see how that works And I think that could that could be something that we see repeated in other countries in the future Dan, what do you think? same thing Any my new show with that one or not really I mean No, I mean, I don't really have a strong opinion on it. They're probably just um They're probably just unbanning it so they can ban it again in two Well, I mean like it's all I mean, it's good that more people have access To the stuff. I mean, I I think that's a good thing I don't think it's going to necessarily like outweigh Other things that are going on in the space, but it's uh, it's a good thing You know, we had plenty of great things in 2022 happened, you know, and Plenty of terrible things as well. But yeah, I mean, I think it's a net positive for crypto Yeah, I guess this would kind of come in the next one I think personally it's a great if it if it really is what they're gonna do It's a good head fake. Hey, we're gonna ban it and it's worthless America's like, yeah Then America doesn't get behind it and they're like fooled you and then they just take over the markets So that will kind of lead us to rfk just uh, robert f kennedy His speech at bitcoin. I mean, I don't know if you guys heard it But what do you think about it? I thought it was very positive But again, just like to me remember politicians are like models Uh, all of them are wrong and only some are useful So like for this one, I don't know if you guys heard it But do you think it's positive or how do you think this all works out and does it even matter? Because rfk is a democrat. I don't know if he's going to be able to be able to run I miss the speech so I can't even really comment on it. Yeah guy I just sort of I read bits about it I haven't actually seen that the the thing in in its entirety. Um, I guess Yeah, I mean, I guess he wouldn't go to a bitcoin conference A politician wouldn't go to a bitcoin conference and uh get up there and slam bitcoin. Um, but That'd be great, wouldn't it that'd be great if like Elizabeth Warren shows out of bitcoin in miamians like you guys are a bunch of losers But yeah, that didn't happen That would be worth the price of a whale pass. I'll tell you that Um, yeah, I think It's um, well, sure. I mean, it's great. You know, it's it's great that uh, there's another one another politician out there who who seems to get it and Look, perhaps it bodes well. When's the next presidential election? 20 20 24? Well, no, I'm the one after this obviously. Oh, yeah, maybe 28 So what's it gonna? You know, how far up the agenda is bitcoin going to be? When you know both when the two candidates for the presidency presumably aren't in their 80s or or they're about, you know, because I mean trump is what 76 77 Biden's now over 80. So I'd be you know, short answer it I'd be very interested to see what it would be like if uh when younger candidates are up for the up for the job Dude, I don't know. I don't know how those guys are president like when when I get to the 70s Hopefully someone takes away my driver's license, but whatever So then just real quick. This is uh, this is on me world mobile token. I'm gonna have mickey walkings on He's the uh CEO of world mobile built on cardano. So Yes, the blimps are gonna be launched and it looks like it's a pretty good thing. So, uh, I'll let everybody I'll keep everybody updated That one and then next one. Why isn't d news pool voting? We have a a stake pool with cardano We already did vote and we voted for t 1000 and to Reduce the rates from 340 to 170 and that was our voting if you're asking why can't I vote for a cardano on this new upgrade That's only for stake pool operators that I know of I don't know if been if you guys have voted yet But there's a ballot for cardano to see if they want to you know increase or decrease the amount of saturations and or not, but that's what we did and there was one more that I This one here. How would bitcoin rack to a Recession I gotta tell you if there's anything out there that I think concerns me is that would be it because I don't know how this is gonna work out just to Real quick. Let's see if I can show this Now you're not gonna be able to see this that well This was a thing I put together Let me see nah I'll I'll show this later where it just talks about this was about the dixie and how things go with the s&p 500 and As it as it correlates to bitcoin one thing I will notice and you can find this on ben's website in the crypto verse Great website 10% off the first month. Just you know That everything pretty much is is relatable to do if you overlay the money supply With the s&p 500 nasdaq and bitcoin you can see it goes in the exact same same way So now that we're actually decreasing it And we might be on our way to recession. How do you think this all pans out? Anybody want to take that one? Specifically with regards to the money supply and recessions. Yes Yeah, so There's sort of like a glass half full and then a glass half empty approach to this so The the glass half full approach is to say well the money supply Year-over-year percentage wise is going down And you know someone asked me like well when's the last time that happened like when was the last time? It was this negative. Oh, it was in the great depression. I believe it's the last time Um, and then I told him to have a great day Um, so that's one way that's one way to look at it But the other way to look at it sort of the glass half Uh full approach is to say well, you know, if you if you look at the um At like the uh the trend line for m2 we went so far above trend That you could argue. Yeah, and then switch that metric scale the top right switch that to a log Oh, no, no, I stole this from your website then. I uh, you're not actually on the website All right. Yeah, but if you if you look at it on a log scale, you'll see that we're we're still above trend At least with regards to nominal if you look at real m2, uh, then we we actually are maybe even back at trend Or slightly below it So I think the the optimistic way to look at it is to say well We're still above trend meaning that like they just printed so much money Uh, you know, they just printed so much money so quickly That they're just trying to sort of get us back to trend Right, I guess wherein lies the problem is What does that mean for asset prices, right? Well, it means asset prices need to go back to trend too And that's what I think we've we've been watching happen for the last, you know Year year and a half or so is a lot of asset prices. Okay. Top right top right rob Uh, it says metric scale above the chart And switch that over to log. Nope. Nope down No down this one. Yeah. Yeah go. Yeah log Okay Yeah, click log see so that's where if you're looking at it any zoom in just the last 10 years or so, um You'll see that we're still technically above trend But I think the issue is is what if we go below trend? It's the same thing with like the job openings and the idea of a recession I mean, there's there's tons of job openings right now And and look at that trend line from like 2012 to 2020 fairly well-defined trend line, right? And what happens if we get below that trend line? I think that's kind of, you know We don't know exactly where it's going to you know, where it's actually going to stop You can overlay bitcoin on that if you prefer Yeah So you can see I mean, I mean like and this is actually goes back to this thing We talked about a couple weeks ago and that's global net liquidity Look where all the liquidity got introduced March 2020 Look at what happened to bitcoin in March 2020 when all this liquidity was added to, you know When all this liquidity was added, um Everything went up. So then what happens when liquidity is removed, right? Um, so yeah that I think that's the that's sort of the what we're dealing with right now Like you could look at it and say well m2 is going down when it's about thing But we are also at least well above trend. So I think there's some wiggle room The fed the feds uh, they're uh, it's a they're It's a tricky business what they're doing history shows us that they normally they normally go too far and break something and then have to pivot Yeah, I could see that guy like this has never happened We're in uncharted territory because I know you guys do a ton of research over there. What do you guys think? What's gonna happen here as far as like if we do hit a recession can can bitcoin be the one that's like Oh, we'll take all the liquidity that people gets out of the market or it's like everything goes down I think bitcoin can certainly absorb Uh, a lot of a lot of the liquidity that's left and certainly I think alts can can bleed into bitcoin more um I think I mean once there's there's a lot of statistics at the moment about how sort of more and more bitcoin Is just is kind of sitting there, you know people are people are generally hodling more and more So I think you know, I think there's a good chance that okay. I don't think a recession would be Would be a good thing For for bitcoin and for crypto But I think there's a good chance that it could you know It could be a lot more sideways just because I think a lot of people will be happy just to hodl through Yeah, I think the most of us that are here will probably hodl through But I think for a lot of people who are in in both places. What are they going to do? What's the only market at 24 7 365? I mean besides forex, I guess it's us So they're going to take the liquidity out and go, you know what I got to pay bills I don't know what's going to happen here. So there we go. Here's a good question Uh named five coins all three you gentlemen are holding Guy, what do you got? I'll start with you. I mean, I'm I'm only holding about five coins. I'm holding I'm holding bgc eith. I've got some atom. I've got some dot and I've got some usdc Yeah Ben is it only are you holding anything besides bitcoin ethereum? I mean like there's some there's some dust. I mean and I run some validators of some of the different things But I mean like not like 99% of my crypto portfolio is it's just bitcoin Because because I just think the whole market is bleeding back to bitcoin right now Well, okay, here's a follow up a better question. What's the percentage then we already know yours What's the percentage of your portfolio for bitcoin? Guy Curious, uh, if I remember rightly, it's about 30% Dang That's pretty that's uh, that's I that's much kind of low. I thought I'm suck. I'm right between the both of you I'm at 76 75 percent something around there But I also think uh, I mean guy guys said something that I would agree with as well I mean like so he's he's holding usdc I'm not holding any stablecoins, but I am holding, you know cash like I think Look, I mean I I whether you whether people agree exactly if we get a recession or not I think at any time in a market cycle literally at any point It's always good to hold some cash, right? And I mean we can always disagree on how much should be held But we always know that any given time the market can drop 10 percent And if you're literally a hundred percent deployed in the market, then you have no way to take advantage of that So I will continue to sort of say that until the end of time, right? They're like having cash is is not a bad way to go especially when you have, you know, uh You know, especially under under the macro uncertainty that we're looking at today, right? With inverted yield curves and and layoffs making headlines and all that sort of stuff, right? Like I think having cash and bitcoin is is the way to go and I mean what I've said before right like if bitcoin goes up It leads the market higher and if it goes down the altcoin market gets even more racked on their bitcoin pair So it's I think it's a good way to hedge. I guess this would be the last thing that uh, and I never thought about that There's a lot of liquidity sitting in stablecoins. I just I just forget about that because like I don't do it. That's a that's something I always forget about but yeah, all right Well, everybody we're going we're coming up on an hour anything else. We got there's some questions, but I My voice is is uh hitting its limits There's also a lot of liquidity sitting in money market accounts as well True, you know and but normally But but I mean we know why right is because they're raising rates and and people are getting better better yield today than they ever Had before or at least our generation is getting better yield than they ever had before They're not going to leave their their five percent risk-free yields Unless they have a compelling reason to do so right and a compelling reason would be that um, you know yields go lower And and why would yields go lower right because the fed broke something right and normally that's what what actually gets them You know gets the money back into risk assets is is after a fed pivot yields go lower It's not as attractive people seek out that yield and risk assets Gotcha. All right Gents anything else before we take off? Are we good? There's a lot of stuff I will just say that this uh, I couldn't make it to big coin miami But i'm going to make it to this one Because it's not like I have the free time. It's super simple to get to miami just couldn't make it But I will go to halfway around the world london to good to be for uh the the coin bureau conference So check us out there. There's guy and crazy Arnold brothers. I think might be on On stream. There's me and my big head and a bunch of other people So that's it everybody. So thanks so much for that Of course, you guys can find uh guy and then the link in the description for their Their channels, but that's it for today. So thanks everybody for stopping by. We appreciate it We'll see you on the next one See you. Thanks rob. Thanks everyone. Bye