 Good afternoon. I'm Jonathan Est. I'm the international affairs editor at the conversation here in the UK Many thanks for joining us for the latest in our series of webinars in which we engage with academic experts to talk about the pressing issues of the day and Today unsurprisingly we're talking about Ukraine Two and a half weeks ago at 3 a.m. On Thursday February the 24th Russian tanks and armor crossed into neighboring Ukraine The invasion followed months of troop build-up culminating weeks of desperate diplomacy in an attempt to persuade the Russian President Vladimir Putin That conflict with Ukraine would be a disaster They're pleased for in vain and As we know now a disaster it certainly turned out to be But it's not all gone altogether as might have been expected if Putin was hoping the might of his military machine Would roll over Ukraine is considerably smaller forces. He was clearly mistaken Ukraine has been a war effectively now at least for about eight years in the Donbas and their soldiers are now defending their homes and families Two and a half weeks into the war Russia is marred and murderous siege warfare and the butchers bill is mounting on Both sides Meanwhile the risk of escalation remains critical Especially after the prospect of Russia using chemical or biological weapons was raised last week and Bombing and missile strikes have moved ever closer to the border of Poland a NATO country It's a hydro headed story with many aspects where the political military or in terms of its impact on the global economy especially when it comes to the oil and gas trade and Something becoming increasingly apparent the invasion has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises since the second world war as Millions of Ukrainian refugees flee the country in search of a safe haven To consider these important issues we have four outstanding scholars from University College London We have Dr. Aglaya Snetkov an expert in Russian foreign policy and international security From the University of Reading Dr. Alexander Mikhailov an economist who specialties international macroeconomics of finance Coming to us from Tufti University in Massachusetts Professor Oksana Shevel whose research includes studying post-Soviet migration and citizenship and has a focus on the challenges to democratization and post-Soviet Eastern Europe and from the University of Birmingham Professor Stefan Wolf an expert in international security and a regular contributor to conversation He's written several outstanding pieces for us in recent weeks in the run-up to the invasion and since war began Including one just this morning So I want to ask on to begin by asking each of you the same question Just how dangerous is this crisis as it stands now? We saw Putin raised nuclear Russia's nuclear deterrent and high alert We've heard talk of chemical and even biological weapons and we now we know that Russia have a history of using them elsewhere Putin's now saying that Russia can and will target arms deliveries coming to Ukraine from the West This just seems to get more and more perilous. Doesn't it? What do you think Aglaya? Thank you very much for hiring me on This is obviously, you know, one of the biggest crises in Europe since World War two And it is a perilous crisis when it comes to the situation on the ground in Ukraine as Evident by the urban bombing the disastrous humanitarian situation. It has also become already a disastrous Situation by essentially causing one of the biggest migration crisis in Europe So it is dangerous both on the ground in Ukraine But also more broadly we also don't know the ramification this will have in terms of questions of global governance in terms of for example International global economy Questions of food migration, etc. So the ramification of this on the ground already disastrous But we don't even know what the fallout the wider fallout from this crisis is going to be from the point of view of the West they have seemed to have tried to on the one hand localize this as a security crisis as much as possible by talking about this The can stop in the contagion security contagion on the ground in Ukraine and For example, President Biden talking about creating red lines and ensuring this does not turn into a world war three But on the other hand, for example from the West perspective They have also been trying to globalize this as an economic crisis in trying to create sort of extensive global economic pressure on to the Putin regime So the ramifications are major And at this stage we're sort of still watching it unfold as we see in front of us And we do not know in any way at this point, you know, what the extensive full fallout of this will be going forth Thanks a lot Alex from your perspective just how dangerous is this now? First of all, thank you for inviting me on this panel There's no doubt that this is the highest level of global risk potentially of a nuclear third and last war that I have ever lived Through my generation in my lifetime It is absolutely crucial. I think an urgent that a Way to ceasefire and Negotiations is found and I think the major tools here are international diplomacy Perhaps China can intermediate Plus the economic sanctions Which could be better targeted and become more comprehensive and I here see a leading role by the European Union because They are mostly dependent on Imports from Russia as well as they provide a lot of exports to Russia on the economic side of the story Any further escalation leading to a potential direct involvement of NATO poses a huge risk of Irreparable disaster for humanity and needs to be avoided Russia's own capacity to recognize where it is going. I think is crucial and immediately change course of action That may be perhaps the most realistic hope to negotiations now rather than delaying them That's what I think on the first question. Thanks, Alex. Thanks and turn it to you What's your perspective on this? How dangerous is this duty? Thank you for inviting me to participate I agree with you know, the previous speaker said the single situation is very dangerous Even if you know some Misguidedly might think that it somehow can be contained in Ukraine given what's happening in Ukraine The humanitarian crisis of major proportion and at this point the Russian forces have only began to enter the territory of Ukraine I mean, there are 26 regions in Ukraine on the one has been seized so far and a few as relates each to and already have millions of refugees major humanitarian Disaster and it can only get worse Now the this thoughts of you know instability in the cart of Europe. That's already producing, you know massive refugee flights may have had global food security may affect Nuclear safety right given what's happening around Ukraine's nuclear power plants and then of course there are broader global implications I would even go sort of as far as saying that I think the whole international global order is in crisis because we essentially have a state That was supposed to guarantee global security a member of UN Security Council that has essentially gone rogue How to deal with that is something completely unprecedented It seems like there is no way within the international institutions that we have within the global structures that we have to address that So definitely I Think the dangers are very real I don't think again that somehow this can be sort of you know, we go can go back to normal I think I don't see any other way to longer term stability Unless Russia is defeated in this quest. So unless you know something eyes on the battlefield or something happens domestically Any kind of accommodation was a hope of going back to normal was the kinds of regime that Putin created and leads in Moscow I just don't see that as a Permanent solution that would bring back stability on the continent and globally Thanks, Oxana Turn to Stefan. I mean you and I have been working on on on this on the Ukraine really since 2014 You know when the the annexation of Crimea and the start of the conflicts in the Donbas, you know from your perspective What what is this? What's happening? How bad are things now? Well, I mean there's very little that I can add to Of being the last speaker here for the moment in a very distinguished line up I think my perspective on this is that All of what my colleagues have said is absolutely true And I think it's further exacerbated by the fact that in Vladimir Putin We are not dealing with a man who is a model of either a restraint or rationality So I think at this stage Simply is impossible from my perspective to predict what will happen. So as the old adage goes You have to plan for the worst while hoping for the best Thanks, I'm gonna stay with you actually on On this we've actually received caught up. I want to return to quite a few of the points You've all made but just first to Stefan. We've released. We've received quite a lot of questions from our readers And here's one from Chris and I'm paraphrasing here But since early on in this in this conflict, Ukraine has been calling on NATO increasingly desperately To fly enforce a no fly zone Over its territory NATO Till now anyway has been has been unanimous in ruling this out And remains so By doing so and by doing so so early on in the conflict Did it narrow its options and and look do you do you think this will change? What would it take to change are there red lines? What more can NATO do? Well, I think at the moment what what NATO is doing is sort of pursue what I would call a policy of proactive containment and that sort of Really involves several actions that we are seeing Unfolding at the moment. So on the one hand there is Of course the whole package of Sanctions that are being applied against Russia. We did an effort to maximize the Particularly economic pressure on Russia. I think that is that is very important at the same time NATO Has continued to supply Ukraine with essential military equipment And I think that will also remain an essential component of this strategy simply to enable the Ukrainian military to Continue with it so far quite successful resistance against the russian aggression And I think the third element in this strategy is To really be very clear that NATO will not directly become involved in the fighting in Ukraine But that article five Of the NATO treaty the collective defense clause Is and will remain operational and I think this is sort of in a way paraphrasing what what aglias said in the beginning this sort of dual strategy of localizing The conflict as a security issue and globalizing it as a Sort of as an economic and diplomatic issue because I think that in the end Will hopefully create a situation in which it will be possible to return to quite serious negotiations directly between Ukraine and Russia In order to make sure that there is this feigned offering that people keep talking about Which would actually be that on both sides um For christ and that's described by pericles in the history of the belloponassian war And they have been used by the romans in the middle ages Nowadays they are considered part of the instruments of diplomacy and trade policy and i'm going to cite Scholar here david bowdoin And his economic statement 1985 Book where he says neither war nor economics can be divorced from politics Each must be judged as an instrument serving the higher goals of the polity And then he continues that sanctions are techniques that enable policy Makers to demonstrate firmness. That's very important. Demonstrate firmness while reassuring others of their sense of proportion and restraint Especially when there is a nuclear danger And a final point economic sanctions can be more effective than Propaganda or diplomacy because they are more costly and this are inherently inherently More credible and again An obvious link to economic theory and game theory here is that you Have to guess the best strategy of your opponent and to suggest credible threats in in this kind of game Uh, there was a review article on the effects of sanctions Long ago in the journal of economic perspective 2003, but the title is very interesting sanctions neither war nor peace It's an article by lance davis And Stanley airman The sanctions that are most likely to have the greatest impact are various restrictions on international trade financial flows and movement of people The peterson institute for international economics lists hundreds of economic sanctions by year principle Sender target country policy goals success score on a scale from zero to 16 and cost to target Country in terms of percent of gmp Many times in the past either ussr or russia have been either a sender or a target of the sanctions with the other side being us uk the european union more recently most of the literature i'm aware of Doesn't describe sanctions and very effective. They are kind of a blunt instrument For example, it took about 30 about 30 years to Bring down the regime of omar al basher in sudan But i think There are four important characteristics that make that make sanctions possibly effective They have to be surprising number one. They have to be comprehensive With no exceptions. Number two number three They should and could be strategically targeted and finally they should stay for long None seems to be true. However in the present case With russia and so there is scope that these sanctions are ratcheted up For example, not excluding russian banks from the swift system because the west has to pay for their gas and oil Imports i read today on twitter A famous economist olivia blanchard Who mentioned that for example europe can be more strategic in in targeting their exports to russia They can disrupt the production chain of russia by targeting special Exports from europe to russia that are important ingredients in the technological production process for russia There is this other discussion again today fellow economist on twitter We kindly agree that it's time To act seriously and to stop importing from russia because then this freeze of central bank assets is Just partial because there are millions and perhaps billions of euros that that russia is gaining every single day because of the pipelines of exports of gas and and oil So these costs are going to be painful to our society. Germany is most dependent. I there is a paper today Echo on tribute policy brief 7th of march rudy bachmann and other german colleagues some of them working abroad So they they have calculated that 55 percent of the gas 34 percent of oil imports and 26 of coal for germany come from russia So it will be most painful for germany But we all agree that such pain is comparable to the pandemic in fact the german colleagues calculated that In the best scenario german gdp in in this year will Will lose 0.5 percent And in a worst-case scenario that would go to three percent and to compare with the first year of the pandemic two years ago German gdp lost 4.5 So i'm seeing a consensus of my fellow economists converging to tightening of the sanctions and this is in a way to avoid this other potential of Escalating the conflict and and involving nato in some way or another because maybe russia is trying to provoke that I i'm wrong to say russia. I want to say kremlin or or putin's regime or kremlin's policy I think uh, we are far from blaming russians russians are Uh, usual normal people and they have condemned what putin has done to their country and their reputation And there is a letter that became publicized by yanis var ufakis recently Manifesto of russian socialists and communists where they basically say this is an invasion No threat to the russian state exists and concludes our enemies are not in Kiev and Odessa But in moscow it is time to kick them out war is not russia war is putin and his regime Thanks for that. I mean i was reading today that german's energy minister has said that you know sanctions would That sorry stopping buying oil and gas from from russia would hurt germany more than it would hurt russia and that You know let alone power cuts. It's all about complete power outages A power stops kind of things. So I mean Is there a sense in which this is down to the will of the german people? I mean that are they likely You say we need these things to be comprehensive. It could germany be a weak link in this Alex, I think that There is a growing consensus that what has been done so far is not sufficient At least my academic colleagues in germany are very active In the recent days with their research with their calculations as I mentioned these numbers They are they are serious numbers made by serious researchers a number of them And they're trying to communicate this message to german politicians Of course, germany is a democratic country. There are ways to introduce This decision further on and again, I think germany only is not sufficient That has to be followed up by Italy, Netherlands, France, the United Kingdom, the United States the big the big powers But this is the alternative economic sanctions could replace the risk of Something that we don't want to think about Thanks, Alex. Can I turn to you agliad and still on sanctions? But Sammy who's sent us in a question wants to know how much are told Are these sanctions beginning to take on ordinary russians? What are you hearing? So At this stage I think what we can see is that the russian economists And the russian regime are basically trying to Come up with a management strategy A number of different Policies have been put in place. There's been an assumption of sort of, you know, interest interest rate hikes potential renationalization of western businesses that have sort of departed in order to essentially Manage the unemployment problem. There's talks of unemployment going up to three million You know inflation loss of GDP, etc. So that's on a macroeconomic level and at the same time there's been talk Domestically that at the moment, you know do Does the central bank do the russian economies actually have the necessary sort of strategies for managing such an unprecedented crisis? You know because the the turn of events has been frankly unprecedented The fallout will be everywhere and it's not just a question for example the russian consumer But it's also for example, there's a russian industries jobs, you know, this the fallout from this will be felt in every sector Of the russian economy um the moment it is I think we're still waiting to see the actual effect on the sort of the russian public the perceptions in russia and So to form a sociological point of view a lot of the attention has to be Placed on trying to analyze How the russian public is sort of viewing the special so-called special operation the russian war in ukraine and a lot of Focus has been placed on that um The fallout from the sanctions obviously it's still only being felt sort of in the last few days because although the war has been going on for a while Obviously the effect in terms of the let's say the russian consumer is only being felt more recently as the businesses have departed My impression from sort of talking to friends and family and also sort of trying to I don't know Watch clips on youtube etc. Is that there's lots of mixed? Responses but at the moment, I think people in on the whole are still waiting to see and there's a lot of expressions such as um, you know We've survived sanctions before this is going to be no different from 2014 fine. We'll go back to soviet union, but we managed fine mostly from people interestingly who Went alive Or were not around in soviet times and as the person who was you know, these are not people who remember let's say the um, rationing hearts that I remember in the late 80s Um, so whilst you know soviets did survive Um, I'm not sure it was such a great life And some people are talking about how this will be a disaster But there's mixed feelings in terms of how long the sanctions were for example last some people talk about a month Some people talk about a year some people talk about until the regime changes So the picture is still very mixed. I'm almost feeling like there's a sense of sort of Sort of being in the eye of the storm and the stillness before the fallout um, and We will see over the next sort of three to six months. What effect this actually has The russians have managed to deal with the sanctions after 2014 in a reasonably. Okay way The it was not felt as such a disastrous Implications on the ground in russia But everyone else Calculates and economies do that this is completely unprecedented up until now russia has been totally integrated into the global economy And so when people are talking about this going back to the soviet union This is nothing like soviet union because you know the extent of globalization the sort of production Links the sort of just chains of supply are completely different And so we have never actually had a situation as far as I know, but alex will know more about this that You know economy has literally been sort of ripped out of the global economy as quickly Almost overnight We don't know what the effect of that will be and at the moment I don't think the russian public do And so this is something we are going to have to sort of watch to manage and to feel the Public opinion whether there will be a revolt against the regime Whether or not there will be the sort of a sense of running around the regime and to west and saying well They will always hate us. Look what they've done to us, right? um Yeah, so I think at a moment everyone is sort of waiting and seeing This is definitely a story that we will have to keep on watching Over the next few months as it sort of unfolds and what it kind of means in practice I just want to take you back to One thing you've just one thing you just said and it's interesting you're saying that because I've I've sort of understood That it's kind of more older russians who's sort of hankering after past glories and so the union that support Putin that his main support base But he seems to have significant support among young people as well. Is that a case? So I my impression and again this is with the unprecedented so we this is Undoubtedly unprecedented crisis for ukraine, but this has also been a major change for russia And you know the legislation again sort of talking about the war, etc That have been brought over in the last two weeks have meant that actually discussing such issues has become much more problematic and so I think I think the majority So people have talked in terms of sort of the quarters the quarter support was going on the quarter sort of against it The quarter have disengaged and the quarter sort of don't know Um on the whole people have talked about the fact that you know the older generation is sort of more in favor and the young people are more against But again, this is quite mixed And we have had plenty of kind of young russians coming out in support of the Russians war in ukraine I think what I found interesting in terms of sort of the public perception is there are a few Themes and tropes that seem to reverberate Regardless of the generational divide and almost regardless of whether people support the regime or not One of them for example being the question of the information war and I heard this all across sort of that sense of everyone is playing Information war. We don't know what's going on. This will be worked out kind of later And this seems to be said by those who support the regime and don't support the regime um There's also been major sort of complete Disengagement of what's going on if that's even possible. I mean the russia public has been a politicized depoliticized for absolutely years I'm not sure it's ever become politicized after the soviet union Um, and it has been absolutely a withdrawal sort of moving it back into the sort of the kitchens and not talking about it And again, that's true for those who support the regime and those who don't support the regime That sense of like well, I'm a civilian the politicians do what they do I don't get involved again cuts across everyone Um, there is also I think the that sense of sort of rallying in support of our own is also something I've heard again by from the elderly and the young people the difference is that The old elderly or I don't know the elderly The generation sort of mine and above so let's say 40 and above Or maybe even 50 and above are probably those who are still more likely to say be the generation switch on the tv And sort of let it run Whereas the young people are sort of the instagram generation Who are much more keen on actually actively finding stuff out? um And perhaps do you follow sort of the the right telegram channels and are able to actually see the images coming out of Ukraine Unlike for example their parents and so there is in some ways generation of breaks breakdowns But there is also in some ways general Disengagement from what is going on and that cuts across all I would say generations and sectors of russian society at the moment, but something to keep in mind is it's also This is where we're going back a little bit to soviet union Which is that feeling that actually understanding russian society from afar is incredibly difficult because a lot of people are very afraid From talking to my family who are there to Being able to just you know pick up a phone and talk to somebody And so we know less and less about what's going on russia, which is actually quite dangerous because To be able to feel what's going on is therefore becomes more problematic from far away That's a very important point isn't it where people are getting their information from and Yeah, that that generational divides important to turn it to oxana Here in the uk the government's announced the scheme to help help households here take in ukrainians fleeing the violence But you know the brunt of this is obviously going to be born by countries neighboring ukraine poland for example as Well last i looked at the numbers it was more than 1.5 million people Uh that have crossed the border looking for safety and they expect more daily What can the rest of the world be doing to help countries like poland and rumania? And the other point is after syria when you know Hundreds of thousands of refugees flooded through into europe and now ukraine You know, is it is there a sense that putin is is weaponizing Refugees and migrant flows Right. Well, um several things i'll mention was there a lot to refugees flows to europe One i think the it's obviously fantastic that ukrainian You know refugees are receiving so far a welcome reception in most countries and in uk is you know Here's a little different with the more complicated entry requirements and so forth But you know in other countries refugees are allowed to work, you know, they're welcomed That's of course is a big difference from how refugees from the bores in the middle east The reception that they received early. I think, you know, when maybe the dust settles and Sort of there is a reckoning with the consequences of this conflict this kind of Almost sort of racial dimension to the refugee response in europe will be probably something that will be discussed and analyzed In the sort of shorter term for ukrainian refugees specifically I think your point about putting potentially weaponizing Refugee crisis is important I think that's the primary That's this I think primary vote of this the army, you know, they basically they Are not doing nearly as well as Yeah, hello hi oxana, I think we might we've lost you have we um, can you hear me? I tell you I'll I'll leave you a second. I'll come back to you Alex let me come to you from the point of view of an economist This makes no sense does it? I mean the cost of funding an invasion the risk of crippling brushes economy of sanctions and further Disrupt brushes keel oil and gas trades You know the risk of being shut out global markets and banking for the foreseeable future and you obviously think that should be for a significant period of time Putin and his advisors must have gamed this shortly. What are they thinking? Thanks, jonathan. Um, yes, it it makes no sense within a healthy and rational logic This doesn't make a sense, but we mentioned here that we are not perhaps dealing with a rational Regime and so that's the danger of it. That's the unprecedented case that we have now um, well economics and politics that are involved usually in such In such calculations Um are um about how much pain or cost a nation or an alliance of nations is prepared to suffer from And what will be the financial consequences to bear? How much? And there is no easy answer in a war both opposing camps lose short of war Under economic sanctions most likely to but less So it's a matter of we economists often analyze that's our basic method the the relative costs and benefits and and So that could be a trigger of of certain actions and strategies One clear message from very basic economic theory is that market democracies and free international trade mean cheaper life for all of us consumers globally Relative to trade restrictions sanctions Not to say anything about wars that disrupt supply and demand for for long periods of time and and have destructions another even deeper insight from the history of the past century is that Property rights and markets are the root of western prosperity While the utopia of central planning or command economy under state ownership replacing market Markets failed miserably and we have seen that in the late 80s and early 90s everywhere in eastern europe Finally, uh, we mentioned the divides here young versus old generation with putting against putting The situation is complex historically. It's complex. The russian nation is composed of different different political colors, so I I have the feeling nevertheless also based on some of my recent research that Generally in eastern europe and in russia there is still this divide between the old generation and modern generation Say the last people who are now 25 30. I do not think this this young generation has anything to do with Stalinist methods or would support such dogmatic regime and and dictatorship So we are now living in in 2022 as a glare mentioned that is the instagram generation We have internet. We have information. The problem here is that we don't distinguish fake from real information And we mentioned this this wars informational wars, but my my view is that the young generation as well as the majority of the Older generations in russia ultimately will not tolerate lies will not tolerate destruction when you watch on tv How families are separated? A mom and a boy who is less than 18 live for poland and the father and and the other boy who is above 18 Stay there to die. I don't know. I don't know how we can It's in in arts. We would remember sophie's choice this film by spielberg long ago I would have never imagined. I would see something in in my lifetime After all these democratic changes once again Let me come back. We've got we've got your back up. So let me come back to you You were talking about you know the the flow of of refugees in the notion of weaponizing refugees Do you want to just Just follow up on on the weaponization as I said, I don't think that's the primary objective I think this is sort of like the the side effect for lack of a better word But it's certainly it serves putin's interest because if this conflict continues the flows can only increase You know if you look at the size of ukraine you look where the russian forces have been now And you know if say they were to continue this grinding advance by carpet bombing cities and continuing humanitarian Crisis we would see many more people in ukraine and that you know definitely would put pressure on west european societies And I think putin's sort of go probably expectation and goal Was this would be to create exactly the kind of divisions that might you know Lead break this kind of coalition against a putin that has formed pretty rapidly in europe I think that was the expectation all along if we think about Calculations and miscalculations on the part of putin before the war started I think one of the miscalculations was exactly about the west I mean there are obviously big miscalculations about ukraine as well But as far as the west that is weak it is divided that you know As you know if you on a hill said in one of the recent interviews the russian officials believe they can buy quote-unquote Enough you know politicians in the west you know from the far right to others who receive russian money, right? so this sorts of you know weaponization of migration was the goal of weakening the west resolve Potentially put pressure on ukraine to concede, you know the terms that putin favors and so forth I think that would be part of the calculation and i'll just wanted to you know Just very quickly chime in on the Situation in the russian society. I don't think this is just putin's war I think we should be very clear that substantial part of the russian society We should we can discuss what percent is it is it 50 that 70 opinion polls are not fully reliable But I don't think that's um it would be doing justice to the facts on the ground to pretend Or hope that you know the russian society is somehow duped to unaware or sort of secretly is against the war Unfortunately, there is very strong support for the war and for the message so we can discuss why that is You know with the relentless russian propaganda that was happening for many years and to ukrainian propaganda specifically Was a decapitation of any political opposition or civic opposition in the russian society, but unfortunately Um, you know, it is not just the war of the regime Actually, you've come very neatly on to the next thing I wanted to talk about which is something I'm actually we're going to publish a story about this tomorrow Um, which is that the way it seems that in the putin era You we've almost seen the end of glasinos the the clamp down on information the clamp down on dissent Um, I've been watching youtube videos today You know horrific things that people a woman held up a blank sheet of paper with you know as a protest and was was Dragged off and put in the van there was there was actually a video in which a woman was trying to tell an interviewer that she supported the The the the invasion and was dragged off and put in the van How secure is putin stefan? Is he political on this an assailable? Could he be toppled toppled by the political class or a popular revolution? You know, what is the situation? how secure I mean Most people in this panel have said before me. I mean, it's it's difficult to judge these things from the fall I mean my own experience going up in In East Germany in the 1970s and 1980s. Um, I mean these regimes look secure until they don't I think that's just effect of life and Whatever predictions we make now they may turn Out correctly tomorrow in a week in a month in a year. So I really don't think at the moment this is necessarily the point to assume that Putin's regime is Going to fall imminently I would absolutely agree with what oxana said that I mean no matter what percentage of people in russia are supporting Putin It's definitely a very very small minority that is prepared to oppose him directly I think it's very similar to sort of from the knowledge that I have What's going on in his inner circle? I mean anybody who was watching the live session of the russian security council just before the Recognition of the two occupied territories in ukraine could clearly see that there was I mean hardly anybody who Did not tell putin what He wanted To hear so I think from from that perspective there is no reasonable prospect now to assume that suddenly there will be a revolution or palace coup Against putin And I think that's also important from a from a western Strategic perspective and there was a question about this from the audience Whether we should be doing anything to actually encourage regime change and here I would say I mean historically our track record in doing that is not exactly great certainly not over the past 20 or so years but also I think If we are trying to contain the current crisis I mean anything that feeds putin's paranoia or The paranoia of a larger part of russian society that actually the west is out To get them cannot but be counterproductive. So I think in in that sense really the the aim needs to be to Do as much as possible to to end this conflict as quickly as possible And then subsequently think about what this actually means for What will have to be some new global and european security order and how future crises And wars indeed of this nature can be more effectively Prevented so I think regime change really at the moment is neither on the cards Nor should it be a part of the rest agenda at the moment Now I've got a couple more questions and we've been getting questions from the audience that you've been going along So I'm going to take some of them too I've been staying with putin for a moment though we We get this picture painted Which obviously You know is very partial but of putin as as an increasingly isolated figure who's you know for two years been Sheltering from kovat hasn't been mixing with anyone I was talking to somebody recently who looked at the way There was a build-up to the invasion and but then then the russian military didn't do any of the things It probably should have done first um And it kind of gave the impression that it was it was a decision taken at haste it's Does putin remain a russian actor in all this briefly so I mean personally I There's been a lot of discussions to whether he's russian actor and because so much of this sort of Of the question of what's going on ukraine. It sort of settles on him And let's say five five of the silver key around him I appreciate why this becomes so important as a debate But I think the more helpful or useful way of engaging that rather than talking about whether he's a madman or not Is to consider it for the prism of logics So what are the logics that let's say? putting in the regime sort of follow um And I think in those ways we can sort of understand why one way they were aiming at and two the question is sort of where they're at so the from their perspective 2014 Did not create too much pushback? um, they survived it They do see the west as weak They do think it's disorganized They did assess that the ukrainian population did not support ukraine They thought it would be successful short limited war But they are mass sufficient army that if it didn't They would sort of manage it. That's I think the logic at the beginning. What we don't know Is where are we where has the logic moved to in the middle of this conflict and where is it going to be at at the end? at this stage in terms of let's say Negotiations that they've had or discussions they've had with macro or shorts They have come out to say that the logics are sort of the same So what the put in regime is demanding hasn't changed too much perhaps except for the denatification discussion and the regime change but what we don't know is What in that respect? will make The greater put in if you like over the regime Uh concede to some sort of negotiations So where is the logic going to be at because in practice and okay, this is to come across as a constructivist Right any almost anything could be constructed as a victory, right? They could withdraw tomorrow to say well, we've Destroyed all the military installations Perhaps this is sufficient, right? The question however is at which stage is the put in regime going to see that their logic of war Has been satisfied and because of the opaqueness and the closeness of the regime at this stage. We don't know We know that they will be willing to sacrifice enough of their trips They've done that in other conflicts. We know that they are not going to blink at, you know High civilian casualties on the ground. We have Syria and we have treachery We don't however know whether or not Putin is so stuck with this logic of expecting neutrality expecting, uh, Ukraine to sort of Claim that they will never join a urnato and expect the territory Recognition that he will never budge from that and until Zelensky sort of Shifts his positions. That's the logic we'll be in we we really don't know But I don't know if it's all completely sort of helpful to just talk about in terms of sort of rationality because we Have little access to putting on the ground to sort of understand Where the thinking is that but that's where we can analyze it from the outside sort of looking at it as a regime analysis Thanks um Now title the This webinar is what's next for ukraine and and actually what a guy was just saying gonna leads me very nicely onto that I don't want to spend just a little bit of time focusing on this before we go to audience questions But um, Stefan, how does this end? You know the what a guy was saying is that russia will or can claim some kind of victory With the minimum of in a sense the minimum of of gains or or concessions I will the west want to give put in concessions Uh, uh, Crimea or the separatist republics can later afford to give ground in the in the face of naked aggression. What do you think? Uh, I think just to echo what what aglaia Just said, I mean, it's it's really hard to determine from the outside what will be considered sort of a face-saving exit For Russia, but to some extent also for ukraine and The rest I think what was also really important is that in my view It's really far too early How this will end um and what concessions might be required, but I think we should also be clear about two things in particular I mean first of all, it's really not for the rest to determine what concessions ukraine should be making. I mean this basically would Totally buy into the logic that Putin has that a country like ukraine shouldn't have any Agents, uh, it really should be down to to all the great powers and In particular to the greatest powers of all which in Putin's view, uh, clearly is Russia to decide the fate of so-called weaker states within europe and I mean that is a logic that Again, I mean goes back several hundred years I mean at least to one of the 17th 18th Century and this is really not something to which I think We should return or should be complicit in allowing Putin to return us to that So that's the first point and I think the the second point also is that right now, I think it's A distraction and sort of a retiring to to talk about how this will all end. Um, I don't think that the end is anywhere new insight And there's a great Quote by Churchill that there's always Light at the end of the tunnel, but right now. I don't actually think we have ducked the tunnel yet To to to see this light I think at the moment what is absolutely important is to get a ceasefire in place so that the violence on the ground starts And if this cannot be achieved as a nationwide a ceasefire in direct negotiations between ukraine and russia And efforts have to be made that at least these so-called humanitarian corridors are beginning to work I think this is really where the focus Needs to be now and yes Strategically we need to think about what's coming after but I think for ukraine's sake right now There are more important things that can and need to be done to To end what is a massive massive humanitarian disaster In in the first place. Um, so I think this is really where the focus needs to be rather than thinking probably a year or so ahead How this Whatever this actually is ends Thanks stiffen i'm i'm going to start looking at a few questions from the audience We've got one from claire who's saying could european neighbors help germany to replace energy imports from russia By sharing their own supplies. Is that feasible? What do you think? alex It's a good question and I think that uh, germany is perhaps in the least favorable situation given their dependency ratios, which I cited in terms of percentages, but all european western european nations as well as the eastern european nations such as romania serbia bogaria They're dependent much more than than germany on russian oil and gas It's it's a wake-up call and it's an urgent wake-up call and Today german economists were discussing that the the stop of imports from from russia Should be immediate and no matter the cost and they can be as high as three four percent of gdp We have seen that we can cope with it, but the cost of the war continuing is is higher so My view is that the european ellies the western ellies will Find a way to diversify to when you are not diversified when you have a high dependency ratio in a particular country In finance or in trade you depend a lot on them. So It's very tricky and the current situation shows it very very nicely. So what I imagine is that in the next One two three years the western countries will help germany But also will help help each other to to to source from other countries. There is norway a huge oil And gas exporter. There is the middle east countries. There are other countries. Mexico. So russia is not the only Although it is a major Oil exporter and gas exporter. There are ways to to diminish that that influence and I am I am confident that Europeans will find some solution including in cooperation with germany Thanks, and just one for oxana You wrote recently in an article for just a security website that Putin's goal is to re-establish russian political and cultural dominance Over ukraine and nation of Putin sees it one with russia and then follow up by undoing the european rules based order and security architecture I mean, this is essentially saying You know, this doesn't bode bode well for the Baltic states more dover and the like is that where you're you're concerned for this escalation Well before we even consider as a country's I think it's it's important to realize and hear what's Echo something that stuff and the same ukrainians agency and their understanding of the situation From the point of view of ukrainians, they're fighting for the right to exist as a nation and as people I mean this I think this is hugely Important because it goes to explaining the absolute mobilization we see in ukraine the sacrifice right and kind of cutting through The gaslighting, you know that we see sometimes coming, you know not only from the Putin regime But also through some analysis in the west Putin made it very clear He does not believe Ukraine has a right to exist as a nation and that ukrainian people who express any opinion That is in any way different from what Putin believes is right essentially nazis. So this is the right to exist So I think that's that's very important. Um the um as far as you know, if um If the conflict might spread further as I was saying, I think again if we look historically Putin's belief Two kind of beliefs that go hand in hand one that the west is really out to get him If you read the pre-invasion speech that he gave I mean the whole thrust of this speech is how Essentially the west led by the u.s. Has been plotting against Russia all along and ukraine is essentially kind of a staging ground Right for these offensive against Russia So I think that's very important that it's not some sort of you know engagement on the concrete security steps Right as you play certain this was there or you don't place like how far are they? You know who conducts the exercises who can monitor it? It is essentially this belief that ultimately is unfalsifiable That um, you know, the west is out to get russia and they're waging a defensive war So it sort of went as far now that uh, not only they deny that the attacks ukraine as you know, russian foreign minister did In a few few days ago. It is presented to the public Um as a defensive war, right? Um, so that's a thing also very important to keep in mind here Yes, I would be somewhat disagreeing with Stefan that you know who's saying that we don't want to kind of feed into putin's paranoia Um, I think that paranoia is is already there So I think there is little else that the west can do to kind of increase it, right? And unfortunately, I think also there is quite little the west can do to decrease it Uh, would it spread, you know to other countries again? The pattern that you know several other finalists already mentioned that russia did various aggressive steps against neighboring countries before And got away with it, right? So, um, if putin can get away Now in ukraine was essentially laying the country to waste potentially running literally concentration camps in the territories that if they managed to occupy There is no way any kind of puppet regime without full-scale occupation is sustainable They would have to have full-scale occupation We see this, you know footage from supposed the pro-russian regions in the south That were supposed to welcome russian troops where people are mobilizing, you know in large numbers Local authorities refuse to cooperate So there is absolutely no way that some sort of non occupation type regime can be established And if occupation is established, first of all, I don't think it's really feasible. They don't really have the capacity That's why I think ultimately putin can not win this war, but he can create a lot of damage Right, it would have to be massive repression except that it won't be televised, right? And again, some in the west may say, well, you know, we sort of solve the conflict So I would you know caution against that and then could it spread potentially further? Yes, it could. I don't think this is something that's in the immediate sort of possibility tomorrow But again, if the regime again is emboldened, it can get away since it can get away with it. I don't think anybody is safe I need to just we just got time to sweet one more question from adrian and i'm going to direct this to agliya Where's china and all this adrian ask could china be the final victor of the russian ukraine war and you've got about one minute please So china has been trying to play a kind of subtle game of not getting too involved on either side There's obviously been a lot of discussions today over the u.s. china sort of high-level meetings And the discussion whether the russians have asked the chinese for the military and you know the americans pushing back To ensure the chinese do not come out in support of russia I think the chinese have been trying to do in middle way Because of the western effort to globalize their economic dynamic The west has been very much trying to show to china that they don't they basically they can't Stay out that they have to pick one side or the other And from a chinese perspective the west is hoping that the chinese will pick the west because essentially of their economic dynamic The chinese however have been very careful to try and make sure they can do the middle ground And I think they will need to consider what Which way they can go to some extent see is See the u.s. Has just as much in negative terms as the put into us In that some ways the regimes are not that different The chinese are clearly looking at what's going on in ukraine to see what the west is potentially going to do with regards to taiwan At the beginning people have talked how Part of the signaling the west has done with every russia Was actually done towards china to show that you know you go against taiwan. This is what happens so I don't know whether the chinese are going to sort of Break down all their relations with russia at the moment. They're trying to ensure that they're not breaking some of the sanctions It will be interesting to see whether the west is able to push china off its attempt to sort of Carry on with this middle ground We will have to go and see I'm I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I think this is something we will still have to see what see regime decides But it is definitely an interesting sort of dynamic because that's where the Implications of the ukraine crisis come for the global community the international system, etc, etc Because these changes a lot of global dynamics beyond simply that The you know the absolutely disastrous humanity. I mean just the terribleness of the war in ukraine and the migration crisis in europe This is why it has wide ramifications Across the international system as well because it challenges many of those dynamics alongside everything else I'm gonna have to cut it now. We're running out of time We've got a we'll have been a minute left and we could talk about this for hours I'm gonna thank everybody that sent in questions. There's there are so many You know we could do another another whole hour on that Um, I hope we don't have to revisit this. Sincerely, um, but but thanks to all the panelists today, uh Aglaya Alex oxana and stefan. Thank you so much. Um, thanks to all for joining us and thanks to my colleagues Mike herd and alice mason who who've done all the work to set this up Um, please follow our coverage on uh, www.theconversations.com. Thanks very much and goodbye