 Over to our mammoth to Basel Chapman as we do each and every Tuesday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks Basil does an outstanding show here every trading day 10 to 11 Eastern standard time Also as a great newsletter the opening call now It's very easy to get Basel's newsletter folks from over that website of TFNN going to newsletters You're gonna see right on the left hand side. You can get the opening call for one month for $149 You get a fish six months for 695 Which is the savings of $199 at 22% and you can get it for one full year for 1195 Which is savings of $593 are 33% now They all come with a 30-day money-back guarantee Basil also has approximately 12 great archives out there You're gonna get some great education. Check it out right here right now Basel Chapman, what's going on? Hi, Tom. How are you? I'm doing great man yourself? Very good. Thank you. So what do we get going on here? Well, you know, we've been discussing this for some time Well, basically what I've been saying is that as I see it this the going to the Dow at least for the moment The Dow you can see I'm gonna pull this across here This is the daily chart of the Dow with my Notations, but essentially you can see between 34,700 and 32,000 573 We've been in this range since November So I always look at this as some some form of distribution It doesn't tell you how how seriously down you can go But it does say the distribution and there isn't enough momentum to break out to the upside At the same time up until now We've had a lot of evidence to say that this orange line this 200 period exponential moving average has been good Support and you can see that in the weekly chart Or right here you can see I drew in the rectangle weeks and weeks ago I said I think we're gonna be stuck in this range And now what we're doing is we're going towards the bottom part of the range And what I did is during one of my shows during my Tiger technicians Our I think it was about three weeks ago. I drew in this blue line to say that's your midpoint of the whole rectangle formation If we start to go below that that's that's quite serious And what we should be looking at is if that that is taken out We've got to expect that we're going to test the lower part of the band and that takes you to About the 32,000. We're at 32,163 right now. That takes you to about 32,730 32,500 then if you look at the s and p It's x there we go if you look at the s Why did that not print it again s and p you try to get there it is You'll see that we we made a high at 41 95 on the 2nd of february And we've pulled back and now we are just underneath the 200 period exponential moving average What's really and I drew in the rectangle here a couple of weeks ago to say That's what I'm looking at for the s and p at this particular point because of the first time It broke out of this downtrend these two Downtrend lines. I call them an insight track repellent zone It became a propellent zone and we ran up and we've been four fives This is the fifth week so far that we're above the the green line But you start to see some weakness So I think if you put it together you'll see that the same thing is happening in the qqq We made a higher 13.38 on the second We've pulled back we're now under the 200 period moving average here as well We've gone outside the bands. I think this is a very important consolidation Because it was a spectacular run from the low in january to the higher february So I think this is what we're looking at at this particular point. That's what I I can call it just a A very important consolidation after a very big run up, but it's very interesting. I I think I mentioned this to you last week That the db the dba, which is dba agriculture fund which we've been along you can see this is the monthly chart on the right The low was in june of 2020 and 13.25 We went along the very next month at about 13 in 1370s and we've been long ever since we've taken a little bit off We have made a peak year 23.01. I like to talk about bar symmetry and you can see in this particular instance The the bar that I chose is a very tiny doji candle from 2019 so the 23.38 high that was made way back in 2015 We tumbled all the way down to 1325 and then we came back to that same level at 23.01 We just was making a new recovery high from that level But now I think it's so it's very important that in this particular market phase We're looking at a Kind of a diverse set of you've got the metals In the commodities soft soft now that includes crude oil But you've got the grains which are doing quite nicely not great, but they're doing quite nicely. They've gone off the 19.25 low Of january, so it's a very selective market I do believe that within the context if you look at the volatility index I was talking about this last week that the volatility index the VIX index is called Had run up to the 200 period moving average back in I think it was december Yeah, it was in december and it stored right at the 200 period moving average and then came down sharply And I was anticipating that if you look at the monthly this the weekly charts right here But this monthly chart on the right shows you that there's a very subtle Bowl formation and that ball formation suggests that at least that I'm short I'm not sure I can even say intermediate term, but on a shorter term basis this We're making a slightly higher low and that says that we could move up in the Once again, we're in leg be right at the 200 period moving average in the daily Start to see some movement in the weekly. So I'm watching this really closely because if the VIX index holds any rally and starts to make the 2150 area support and moves Potentially higher into the 2380 2450 area that's going to continue the sell-off in the market So I think there's a very important I I don't have evidence right now to say this is it. This is the big one that we're going to go tumbling down I even take out the January low. I just think this is a very important consolidation That's the way I'm seeing it. So for subscribers to open your call We've built up a very nice cash position. We tighten stops on anything that I think is is vulnerable to downside And I as a what do you what do you think about that? The inflation in general, I mean as to forget the markets for a second, right? But in general, yeah, so this is very important It's you know in gas prices when gas prices go up. It's like instantaneous Even just an eyebrow lift Right says that the prices that you know immediately the pumps the the prices go up when the prices come down It takes a long time for them to come down. So three things are happening here One is you and I spoke about inflation. Oh a long time ago when there wasn't inflation But what we both decided on looking at the history that we've gone through in our lives That once the inflationary bubble is taken out the genies out the bottle It's really tough to put it back quickly. It takes a long time. That's number one. Number two is There has been I mean I I spoke to you about a moment ago about that the inflation in the commodities the soft commodities the grains But even then if you look at this look at the dba the dba is um It's off the high But it is holding if you look at the weekly chart you're seeing it's in the lower range And I think that that's important. So what's happening here that so the second part of it is That there has been inflation fortunately has been rotational and the third thing and that's what we really have to keep our eye on Bonds the rates are going higher And that is in itself an inflationary thing. So I think even even in inflation We see rotations very hard to get it back Right and you know in that dba the dba is 42 sharp turn bonds That's right. It's always like the dollar which is not really the dollar, right? Thanks Baz. Have a great one. Have a safe one