 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 just to finish this up right here I'm trying to get a left side right at price time actually we don't know if that's gonna work but I don't know to see if there's any chance in a measured move so let me go to that level it'll take a little while there could still be a balance first I suspect there's going to be a balance and move this over to the right I can't go all the way so that says it about 10.17 and about 10.23 the 200 period exponential moving average of 41.67 might be hit we'll just watch this closely this is the E-mini one-minute chart made a peak G-star seat little mini top right here and the leg E is going to a peak E in the five-minute chart and a peak D no leg D we don't know if it's a peak D yet in the ten minute chart I just wanted to explain some of these things yeah this is what I'm looking at remember on Friday we were looking at a failure pattern excuse me that's it to me so this is Monday the 30th of October just about a wrap-up the month and what we're looking at here is that that dreaded H pattern or I can show these because we've had a number of people over the last couple of days say want to know about my newsletter and I said I'll go through some things on Monday said let me just show you this so I look at three core patterns there are plenty of patterns I look at but the three core ones are straight line up straight line down that's one two is a cup formation three is an arch formation or a mix of one and two or one and three one and three is where you make an arch pattern usually you're fed at a peak A or a B take out the left side low and then you've got to be careful because you have three bars two but maybe three bars in which to close above the left side low this is 32,846 for the Dow this is the third session below it but the the the day hasn't even begun and 35 36 minutes nothing so we have to wait for the full day to see whether or not to close at 32,847 that'll be a good that'll be important because what it's done is it says that now there's a less of a chance of going one to one to the downside from the high that was made and that was in 34,000 that would be a huge move down so that's number one number two is within the context of the arch formation look at this I'm going to go through each one of these so S&P, why am I going to play a thing on my earphone? oh because I did something wrong okay okay there it is look here we go so the S&P with that arch formation going to that 42 16.45 a low of about the October the beginning of October we went way under it and this is the in this particular instance I'm going to exclude that down I'm going to say from the sharp move down one two three this is the fourth session that is below 42 16 it's a little tough to get to 42 16 we might see it but it's gonna be tough QQQ arch formation we call it the dreaded H that read the straight line down then the arch formation take out the left side low because it could go a lot lower well in the QQQ we're one two three four bars under 351.36 which is made all the way back in late September so and now I just wanted to show you because of the weekly charge remember we waited and waited all of last week to see whether the QQQs would follow the NQ futures that the week before had already closed negative and the 914 under the when pink three weeks three two Fridays ago three weeks ago and but the Qs only did that last week and now we are still S&P that's the same to me this rally could unfold in a very mixed market way for instance there's still some strength in the QQQs even though it's gone negative with the 9p moving average the Mac these very weak statistics down at 18% on balance forms holding okay but kind of weak but you haven't got a wide disparity between the nine of the 14 when that expands then the price goes much much lower or much much higher so it hasn't expanded yet have a look at the IWM it did this ages ago IWM 162.90 down up 68 cents it made that dreaded H at a peak A- it couldn't even get to a B way back in early October and it's just been down every almost every single day since is looking terrible and you've got this very long support oh my good I spoke about this right I couldn't believe it when I looked I'd almost forgotten about it this huge rectangle that I drew in going back to June of 2022 at 162.70 it ran all the way to the 190-198th area pullback to 162.50 a lower low and that became a trend line it ran up to 199.26 and then a pullback again took time it didn't get to it went to about the 168th area then rally sharp into 198 so you've got three highs that were made in the 198-199th area now it comes out and was it what does it do on Friday I forgot to tag this in it goes to I didn't take it out by a couple of cents no it held it by no it took it out 161.67 was the low on Friday 8 cents it went 7 8 cents lower than the June low of 2022 this is tough I mean this is the I double in Russell 2008 he's not holding very well or this is a really critical level but with that said there are a couple of things that are going on look at the SMH's the SMH's today are up just slightly up about 7 cents and 138.41 I've said forever now that just the way I look at the markets the SMH's that's the bellwether where the where the semis are going because the semis of the crude oil of the 1900s and the 2000s but the chips are in fact this is where everything is right I don't think you can even make the chips without the crude oil but the fact is this is the new energy focus for everything to do with computers or anything to do with mobility in a different way and when I say mobility I mean EVs and that's this is the big change and yet you still need electricity to get the EVs so this is a fascinating period but in the meantime the the semiconductors and I should mention they were still short just like we shorted down from August the first we hold that position we're short the semis the all-time high was 161 17 and that and that was late July where was it let me tell you it was in oh that's right August the first we went short the Dow August the second we went short the before the opening of the market on the second and that was two about two points of the all-time high and we remain in that position and one of the reasons is I don't see anything yet I must tell you I came to the United States from South Africa the parallels between South Africa and the United States I've always marveled even when it goes back to gold what was it the 18 1850s ready the gold gold era where everyone was going over to California to mindful gold well South Africa has the same kind of history so I came here some time ago and if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present 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you'll always find good people bad people really nice people and people you just don't want to associate with it's just the way it is and coming from when i was born in Cape Town South Africa it's a beautiful place a lovely place and i then family moved to a little mining town near Johannesburg and i got beaten up uh not every single day but a lot for being of an ethnic group and being a white South African with the africanas a white English speaking South African with the africana spoke africans and the africanas were very anti the blacks as well and it was just really it was a very unfortunate situation and i found very quickly that i could make friends with people of any any ethnic group by just embracing them and respecting them and that's just the way it should be and when you meet bullies you have to confront a bully and you might be beat you might be beaten up but you really have to land a punch that gets respect i don't know why it is i don't know what it's for but that's the only way you get respect and it's a very unfortunate thing so that's that um and i have to mention this only because it's getting to be a situation in the united states that i i always thought it would happen but i never thought it would happen uh as quickly as it has so but that said there was up 252 points at 30674 the um e-mini is trying to rally and as i said i thought that there was a chance we might have made the inch a day high we never know but we might have made the inch a day high uh i keep going to the wrong chart it's over yeah yeah right there where i went to the gcc and e in the in the five-minute chart and the d in the ten-minute chart and uh i actually did get short right there while we were on air but i also put in the stuff uh a little too close there and got out and now i haven't been able to get back in from the four forty one seventy five level yeah we are at forty one sixty two that happens um so i want to get to a certain things so far is the stock we had recently but then it just didn't act right and i thought it's the electronic it's in the banking area it's just it might be something different to your usual banking area so today uh early and i watched a friday it didn't do too badly and oops i'm in the wrong uh i need the daily chart so far yeah so it didn't do too badly on friday but the whole financials this is what really worries me the financials are just failing failing failing and here we got the so far up seventeen cents but it had earnings and they were quite good it went to seven dollars and eighty eight cents and now it's down to seven point oh four and one of the things i'm looking at is i don't care what happens intraday to the stocks with good news it happens over a period of maybe two days like ibm comes out with what is it great already a very surprising groups are typed in and over there very surprising earnings wasn't so much to us i was expect having two brown ibm as a turnaround candidate for ages and it's holding so we're gonna have to look at microsoft you know look at microsoft um it isn't breaking up it isn't breaking down it's up five point dollars at three thirty five today but it is stalling at the high level but it is holding so what happens to these stocks after the earnings especially the ones with the with a better earning what happened to amazon amazon is probably still up nicely that puts up 270 at 130.43 had a very nice upside gap on friday this is what you want to see actually i was saying that uh recently i what i what i like to see is if you're fortunate enough and i spoke about this last week if you're fortunate enough to be in a stock that has takeover aspects like an x you are steel and you can survive all the way through a determined down move in the market that is really nice that's what you want to see because you it's like bonds used to be market goes down you're holding bonds it saves you 987 bonds saved you all 2007 bonds saved you they're not doing that now since the height it was made back in january of 2022 all those highs in the market now we've come down but the bonds are not saving you there's been a change that multi decade era i used to consider it to be the japanization of us bond yields gone gone gone gone so now we're looking at is the tlt here this move this looks like a stock it doesn't look like a bond 179 march of 2020 trading now at 83 83 more than cut in half and that's what happens every once in a while every once every couple in many decades you get this where bonds really take a take a beating just as on the upside they've had the most spectacular rally so this is just saying to me that the the longer term trend has changed now let's just get back to what we were looking at so what i'd say is gold which is still up very nicely up 11 made a leg c on friday should go to a d because the magnies good stochastic is holding flat in 90 that's what you want to see on balance for him since it's just a tad overboard holding in the weekly chart now for the third week up near the 2000 level it's a 2010 up 12 but what i am fascinated about is if gold holds and you know gold is the the go to icon of geopolitical fear just as the dollar is the the dollar is the respect the international currency of respect so you've got gold as the currency of fear well in this particular regard what we're looking at is silver always plays catch up yep and today's playing big catch up up 59 cents at 23.48 but if you look i like to go to asa we don't often have it in my for subscriber to my opening call but it's something i always follow south african the five of things the gold gold stocks from south africa they're in a portfolio it's registered i think in bruna and it's up eight cents at 1381 this is not look at this weekly chart this is not what you'd expect with an international congregation going on especially in the middle east because that's where gold would automatically start to skyrocket so something something's not right i mean i always pick out this one there's one that we often grab ng's nova gold because it's very low priced and basically it's going to move up that if the tide moves up it'll move up with the tide which you get a nice percentage move from 368 to whatever it is the reason i was four but it's not doing very much look at rgld rgld let's look at that this is real gold don't tell me this is a major bull market for gold now gold's gold holding should there's no way that you can't start to see uh an improvement in the gold stocks i shouldn't say there's no way but i'd be it's hard pressed for those gold stocks at some point not to start really saying hey if gold is staying there we're going to be moving up to be getting better prices but i do think that this is more an emotional response to what i think it's just a fear factor than anything else and it's fascinating that it's happening i'll be back thousand chapter tiger this is how it goes up 249 currencies commodities and bond markets are as 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watch tiger tv i will just uh finish this up here look we've got the e-mini one-minute chart all the way at uh leg f could be an f alternate count f slash b but meantime according to an f because still got over g and in the five-minute chart that is a p e so i put in a little a carrot because i've already used up the down arrow because it did go pink and then go green in the nine period moving average and then the stochastic went under 80 very quickly and now it's pulling back under the 200 period moving average which is like a magnet of once 41 60 in the five-minute chart the 10 minute chart i have to take that plus away remember in the travel way methodology the idea is to always be on the right side of the notations uh in other words you want the notations to be as correct as possible and that means you have to go back and fix something if it was wrong you have to get it right because you want to now there was a tail wind behind you um has to be to your benefit otherwise you're not going to get any benefits if you get the wrong notation you can be you could be misreading it in this particular case that carrot says whoa this upside down v says that's that's your second down arrow and now you should see a sharp pullback which you have and you've got the 10 minute chart at a peak d this is the eye full tower straight up straight down not in one move but it's one's one look floating letter goes this would be gray a gray a as soon as it goes past the g slash c goes to d now it becomes d floating letter floating letter floating boom peak d because you had a lower high so all of a sudden now you've got that and the question came in um uv x y we're looking at it i just said you got to hold off well um when i hit that sell button for the s and p that was probably where the uv x y and i let's have the uv x y it's just a little duff because there is so much um there is so much anxiety in the market that this short covering rally as i said at what was it just about 10 o'clock i said i wouldn't be surprised if that might be the high of the day we don't know because there are waves of this coming in but when you see some of these when you see so uv x y is trading at 18.67 down to dollar 14 um if we were speaking speaking about this as a potential if they're going to be lower lows to come and i suspect they are going to be so for the person who was asking me about the uv x y in your particular instance since it's really an insurance policy this is an ideal time because you are now 255 points in the down off the low you are um 21 points off the low um from the open that is today so in this case i'd say start a very small you remember this is insurance this is not like a the trade that you want to retire on this is what is just saving your regular portfolio and i'd say at this particular point a small position and even that should be monitored would i add to it i'd add to it if the down off the 230 this afternoon has given back another 100 points then i'd say you could just add just a tad don't get carried away it's insurance insurance you have to think of very carefully all right let's get back to our story so p pl tr i'm going to finish up the other areas and among they're all very important i keep typing it in to my near term chart it has to go to right here yeah so palantir i'd say i'd be a little careful it enacted really well but i didn't like the fact that it made a peak d with a sorry a peak d in the uh with a doji candle then a second chubb wave uh this is called right a silent doji candle when it makes a doji candle off what's a potential uh turnaround bar one bar before one bar after just says oh be careful that's the confirmation that there's some weakness there so i'd just be real careful so in this particular instance you've had a very sharp pullback it's down 31 since 1476 it made a peak f in the weekly chart it made the dreaded h pattern a successful one which started a cup formation but that data the way the data is pulled back says to me palantir technology is in developed state of fusion platforms i i just be real careful i think it's going to hit the 13 13 21 200 period exponential moving average in the weekly chart at some point doesn't have to be quick 13 a f 56 is the 200 period moving average in the daily here is at 1475 has got quite a way to go but i do think that that's the area so then i hope that helps you for palantir and then a question came up about ford so ford motor company hits a 25.22 high in january of 2022 comes tumbling down to the nines and then you know like dressed to the nines well this is the opposite it gets undressed to the nines and it goes to peak a and then a peak a and b in the monthly chart it makes the lowercase h to go so lowercase m let me draw that in here this is the h to an m pan or it could just be called a wreck angle in fact and what is it doing just like we were looking at whatever it was what was it it was tlt no no what would i say we went to 82 uh what stock were we looking at earlier on oh my if i can't remember it and uh we went underneath it remember the monthly chart well look at this the load that was made in ford back in 2022 in july of 2022 at 9.96 it rallies up to the six 15s comes back and it tests the nine at a 10.25 then it rallies up to the 15 area gain comes back and where is it right now 9.74 9.96 was the low that we were looking at from july of 2022 we're under that in a monthly chart i this is tough let me tell you ford i think um the design i i always follow design a lot i i'm beginning to like quite a lot of the ford products i think that the uh i know my wife went everywhere on the road she's oh i like that what is that noise turns out to be fourth under bird um so um in one one guys or another so all i can say is that i don't want to go one to one to the downside from the weekly chart and go from the the 15s down to the 11s four points and then four points from the 13 area because oh it actually gets there doesn't look quite right to me i will do that so let's go from here down to here yeah whoa look at this uh one to one to the downside yeah i can't ignore it it's a possibility it's a pattern that i follow but i i don't follow it exclusively it's just something and that just says nine nine twenties could be a test oh it's not a big deal 50 cents low but that's not the issue the issue is if the monthly closes underneath the left side low of of july of 2022 you have to now get a buy signal in the i'm not sure maybe you actually short i shouldn't have i should have asked you what you are um no okay so in this particular instance all i can say is there's gap down and follow through through the downside this is not good news you know oh i meant to do that i'll do that during the break i'll just only factor where's my cell phone right now i'll say um let me just ask this okay we've we've got a break coming up how many motor companies will be in the boston area in 1930s just the moment and here we go let's see the dollars uh up 253 just a moment is more than just usually it's so quick but it'll be back i'd like to find out there's something going on here that we have to talk about and i'll be back with it in a moment about for motor company the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market the us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report tom obrien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xau hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to tom obrien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com are you ready to take your trading to the next level introducing tom obrien's 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traders who have already experienced the power of tom obrien's award-winning newsletter market insights firsthand tfnn educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear etfs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-4767523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz so that's an interesting i had not seen this before it was different i years ago i looked at this and it said there were automakers all over the show they didn't they a lot a lot of them failed but here it says the number of active automobile manufacturers dropped from 253 in 1908 to only 44 in 1929 with about 80 percent of the industry's output accounted for by Ford General Motors and Chrysler formed by Maxwell in 1925 by Walter P what was his name as well so um that's interesting because i know they've even had here in the boston area we had automobile manufacturers um maybe they're talking about well i'm going to go with that so what i was thinking is that in this particular area now with electric cars and for the first time we're really talking about design now the actual designs becoming really competitive you can actually start to see a little bit of a difference in the styles not that much but more than they had been before so i think this is an era that's going to be coming up if it all works out if we can get through the next year or so um where there is a great demand for electric vehicles because of design and other things not so much of practicality and that practicality will come into place i mean they're you know human beings creativity is enormous they will figure out a way to get a much much quicker uh injection of electricity into the cars and not maybe the same as gas where it takes you seven minutes or something to fill up but maybe 10 it's not too bad uh we'll have to see any meantime Ford is as as a chart not you look at General Motors General Motors up all overlap here you've got the daddy chart look at this lower lows and lower highs lower lows and yes you're one to one to the downside it broke its arch formation chapter wave H pattern at a peak A and a B at a B minus and it took out the left side low this pattern is ominous it just it i'm very nervous about what's going on and look at the XLF so what the question wasn't about the XLF but if you don't have the financials and this is where gold really would start to accelerate to the upside if there is some kind of a financial oh oh oh if you're looking at this um on the arch on the right you've got yourself the H pattern from an A coming down you don't want to see the XLF start to trade in the monthly chart under 29 59 and here it is a 31 68 barely up to day 22 cents so that's the reason why I said we are shorting the stay short um and yes we have a long but they're in certain areas now the question Basil used to make as of course an assembly wrong some of all yeah yeah I as uh when my son was a kid I took him to the four to the General Motors uh company of Framingham it was fantastic you go and you see nothing and then as you walked around you saw the chassis and the wheels and they put the engine and then they put the the the um the car itself on top of the base uh and then finally they drive it off the lot it is the fantastic and then I think I took my daughter but it was completely different at that point and it changed and then it was gone yeah it's an exciting thing to see I don't know what they do today I can imagine if Tesla whatever the automation is oh talk about automation I'll go to the end of the moment for the meantime question came in and I want to get to these questions about Merna Merna I always say Merna because I had a Merna in my class at school uh Merna uh MRNA is moderna biotech COVID and the question is do you see any potential support in Merna earnings on the 2nd of November now this is interesting because when a stock does this even if there's absolutely fantastic earnings the v-shaped pattern off a low says that it could be fabulous except what it does it just it just goes back to where it was a few days ago so look let's just say it's trading a 7259 right now on the 2nd the 2nd will be on thursday so it's the 2nd thursday uh is thursday by thursday look the rallying today is up sixty three cents and seventy two fifty four off the high of the day um anything can happen but at this particular point let's just say let's just give it the benefit of the doubt it actually closes by wednesday in some optimistic way at 76 you got the night read moving average of 78 86 you got the the black 14 period moving average of 82 91 what happens in a situation like this is that you could have a balance but to get the pink to change to black to start to go to green uh to to cross you're gonna have to see 88 to 89 and I just don't see that if you're looking at the biotech sector as a sector look at this it looks just like Merna so all I can say is that um I it doesn't matter if it has great earnings I would say by November the 15th and remember the 17th somewhere in that period if uh Moderna is trading under 68 or 67 just in the 60s it's taken every opportunity to rally and hasn't been able to do that if it is traveling I mean sideways to higher highs and higher lows and now it's at 82 and then 84 then I would say to you for the first time the stock is saying we've overcome a tremendous amount of uh active negative activity since the the august high of 2021 the the high that was the basically the um it didn't coincide exactly but we can call it the the COVID high at 497 and now it could now the other products are coming in line wow it's a big ask so um you know it it's a tough one now as I said about six months ago that eight months ago and then three months ago if you really see if you're doing your homework and you say I need that's a biotech stock you've got to hold these for a long term position I would say I want to see now I want to see a reversal of the trend in the weekly chart so that by November late November early December you're actually seeing an uptrend where it's making higher highs and higher lows on a weekly basis even if it's just going to peak A and then stall and yet not even going to a B but well off well off the 83 level which I would say is an absolute minimum for it to rally for me to say hey something's happening gosh I hope that was a long winded way of saying I I wouldn't rely on one news event um yes uh about that have you seen wba I think I've done all the other ones that I wrote down so let me just do this wba yeah I've spoken about this spoke about it in my uh the newsletter we don't have it I've been watching it very closely Walgreen Walgreen Boots Alliance Inc junk stores etc I need to see evidence so this is like the GE at some point GE was just unbelievably bad it just had I mean from the time Welsh left and then you got whatever his name is we did everything wrong I mean if you want to know I don't know if they do that in the business school probably email has some influence there because he he came to Massachusetts for a while um with another company and they got taken out and he still made a bundle there but um email I believe but emails um everything wrong when the energy energy uh was on its way down he put energy when uh uh the engineering probably um the uh engines for the going whatever it is that would make a high and then go down to a low he was in it at the high and it went down to so Walgreen says and you see uh I'll talk about you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the 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go long we'll find out because by 12 20 to 115 this afternoon if the Dow is still holding really well above 230 points said 283 right now and there's a piece up above 22 points then you get your later afternoon people coming in and they're now preparing for tomorrow and that's going to be very important but we are so oversold on a particular just on a purely technical basis on balance volume etc that you can see this last another day or two i don't i i'm not saying this is the perfect time to to re-institute short so just even even your longs if you missed out the big move up i'd have to wait for any move even if you want a short term trade so with that said uh this i still see lower lows and lower highs to come over the next week or so well let's get back to um the next couple of days in fact are very important can we form a base it would have been great what happens if today we closed down even 30 points and then tomorrow is the ugly day that that's kind of what i would like to see to see a washout that can give us a really good routing for a couple of weeks maybe two weeks oh what is that the end of the show good brief what did i say i was still going to do oh uh wool greens so nothing to do with wool greens just yet because i do think that um we're looking at there's a new ceo that's what i brought up g e new ceo let's see what he can do and most importantly um have a great day still keep the steam and all the rest of the participants the host and i'll be back tomorrow