 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Thursday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. eastern time and we got a little red action across the board. We got higher yields. We got the tenure right now. 4.2% I believe we're at. Let's pull it up as we kick off the program, man. You talk about some yields. What are we at? Excuse me, 4.17 right now. We probably hit 4.2. We're going to kick it off with yields. Why not, man? Look at the acceleration now. We're at low, so we're talking about 4.17%. The yield currently right now in the tenure. You have lower price yet again extending below the lows of yesterday. Yeah, higher yields coming at this market in a pretty dramatic fashion. The highest for the tenure, I believe it's only 4.3 or 4.35. We're approaching 4.2 right now. The yield on the tenure, pretty remarkable action. You jump to the third year. We're down a full point and 13 ticks. I kick off the program with yields because you're catching some huge moves, man, and it's mattering. It's mattering to equities right now. We take a look at the yield curve. Let's kick it off with the yield curve as well. Why not? You got the two-year up about two basis points. We're above 4.9%. As I mentioned, the tenure at about 4.17. I mean, pretty remarkable. You have the third year up a tenth of a percentage point. That is a huge move across the board as we get higher yield coming at you. The one year even up about one basis point 5.4. Look at these yields, man. Let's see. Where's the six-month? 5.5% on the six-month. Pretty remarkable across the board, man. These yields. We jump back to the chart. So with higher yields, what do you have? You have lower price, man. You've got higher yields coming at you. You have the cost of capital going up. You have a downgrade for our country's rating yesterday. Not anything surprising. It's not like Fitch came out and said we looked at the books and we found some stuff that people aren't aware of, right? They just downgraded it to what? AA+, for obvious reasons that we're all aware of. I think it was Jamie Dimon that was talking yesterday at one point saying, and I found it interesting, you know, yeah, the rating agency, they can make their ratings, but the market decides. The market puts an interest rate. That's the rating, right? That's the real price of supply and demand. That's what the market is rating, the yield on it. And yeah, maybe the market's going to start talking and saying that you got to go up, especially when you look out longer term, right? It's not a lot of yield. When you look out longer term, and yes, folks, I think we will eventually get paid only because politicians might be able to hold things up, okay? It's spending's out of control. The debt is out of control for sure. Okay. It's an easy topic that we all agree on. But there's no way that that impasse would last because the same people who are elected, who are frustrated by the debt or the reason why maybe we could even border on default, well, we're all holders of that debt. So we'll be defaulting on our own money so that would get repaired. Maybe it would finally get a deal done with some type of compromise, right? That's what they're talking about. This is an interesting situation as in, is a full default possible? Not really. And that's what the market's really looking at, right? Is an impasse possible? Kind of surprised. We haven't hit a shutdown to some degree for some period of months at some point. I feel like that's coming in the next few years. Things just become so divisive every time we have it up for grabs. And people in both parties are always a little bit upset on the outskirts. Compromise is very difficult. So what does that mean? That means probably you should have a little bit of higher yield. Doesn't mean it should be some astronomical yield that you're not going to get paid, okay? But should it be like 4%? Should it be that low? I don't know if it should be that low because things would reverberate across the board. As in, you think you can buy Apple debt instead? Do you think Apple is a more reliable company than the U.S. government right now? You might say, hey, listen, the people in charge of Apple, they're going to pay their bills, right? I'm not sure our politicians will be able to agree. Well, guess what? Apple, they hold a lot of treacheries, right? Or whatever they hold, right? So everything would reverberate. Nobody would get paid. It would get fixed. But we're seeing a higher yield and we're seeing a higher yield of a repricing a little bit to some of the risks that are present in this market. And we'll see if we hit the yield, the highs on the yields as we're now at 4.173, the yield on the 10-year as this price just continues to drop, man. Check it out. We're making lows right now. Very interesting coming into non-farm payrolls, right? Look where we are on this chart. We're actually below where we were in March. Yeah, that low, 1, 10, 12. We're at 1, 10, 0, 7. We're challenging the lows we had in July, which was 1, 10, 0, 5. This is on the 10-year. And there are your lows last year around October. Yeah, October 21st, that correlated to the high yield, which, as I mentioned, was about 4.3, 4.35, I think. Maybe somebody has it in the den, the high print for the 10-year yield going back last October. I think it was about 4.35, potentially somewhere there. We're pretty close, right? All right, we jump back to the equities. So you had the markets sell off on the Europe open, and we're challenging coming back into those lows right now. I was chatting with my dad earlier. I said, do you see any of the action? We were just early, early in the morning. And yeah, about 2 in the morning, this thing was at about 45, 40. That's pretty close to where we closed out last night. And then it was a pretty quick sell off. About 3 in the morning, Eastern time, till 4 in the morning, you sell off. We bounced a bit. We're still lower by about 20 points. NASDAQ 100, down 7 tenths percent. Now, I talked about Apple, right, in a theoretical. Well, we get some main events today, man, with Apple and Amazon. We'll see how they do. Ahead of their numbers, after the bell, you have Apple off $1 right now at 191.66. And what are we doing? We're barely over that $3 trillion mark, within about a dollar. It's about $1.90 and $0.70 or something, pegs them at the $3 trillion, so they're flirting and trading lower. It would make sense they ring that bell, right? They ring the bell, they make it all the way up to what, $198.23 on that spike high. That was on the news, I believe that they were developing their own chat GPT, right? Be a little bit ironic, if they got their final thrust higher to $198.23. And from there, we're off almost $7 right now. It's been a pretty quick pullback over the last couple days from almost $197 to $191 right now. That's almost $100 billion in market cap. Apple's giving up, okay? So they get their numbers after the bell today. You're talking about a company. We have about a $6 move priced into their numbers after the bell today. We have Amazon with their numbers as well. Amazon talking about a $7.50 move for $128 stock. A little bit more volatility than Apple. Amazon today, they're actually flat with a negative market. Yeah, they took their licks yesterday though, man. From $132 down to $128, we're trading $128.14. We take a longer look at Amazon shares. And we're basically right back to that 50% price action on Amazon. We trade up to $135. We're back to $128 right now for Amazon shares. So we get Amazon after the bell. We get Apple after the bell as well today. We jump around to some of the commodities crude. That's a longer term chart. We back it up to the 10 minute. And there's some volatility for you, man. Yesterday, we're lower. Today, we're back above $80, $80.22. We were just back above 81 as crude. Rocking and rolling. This market, it's going to be an interesting one today, man. Especially getting positioned before the non-farm payroll numbers tomorrow, okay? We'll get into weekly jobless claims as well. As we pull that article up, jobless claims. 227,000 initial applications, 227,000 four week moving average falling to the lowest level since March. The four week average is in black. There is just no pause in this market, man. When it comes to jobless claims, we get jobs numbers tomorrow. We get two big companies with their earnings today. We got a lot to talk about, folks. Stay tuned. We'll be coming back in three minutes. Don't go away. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. 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And as I mentioned, yields the story of the day right now. Off 19 ticks, we got the 10-year right now, flirting with 4.2 percent the yield on the 10-year. Risk-free rate of return. Not a bad risk-free rate of return, man. I mean, think about it, folks, okay? No matter what I say, the conversation you do want to be having with yourself, especially if you're in retirement or if you have even a portion of your money that you're allocating, because we have a risk-free rate of return that's approaching 5 percent right now, and that's going out almost five years. I brought this up many times, but this is the scenario that you want to be playing out in your head. So you're getting about 5 percent on your money. The S&P is at about 45-100. You go out a year, and that's got to put the S&P at 47-25, okay? You go out two years, that's got to put the S&P approaching 5,000, okay? You go out three years, you go out four years, and you're at 5,500. So you have to realize that risk-free right now, over a four-year period, let's do it one more even, over a five-year period, okay? In five years right now, because that is, if you did a CD ladder, okay, and this is the conversation you want to have with yourself, you can lock in buying the S&P right now, and in five years, you can lock in that that S&P will be trading at 57-43. You can't do that, right? But you can do that with risk-free yields right now in just a CD ladder of approaching 5 percent. So have those conversations with yourself and realize you want to have the exposure. Are you able to withstand a potential pullback where it's some lofty prices right now? I mean, when I run this over my head and I know I was talking bearish a while back, okay, but there's nothing wrong with protecting yourself, and listen, my retirement money, my 401k money, yeah, I'm in the market. I got plenty of time, man. It's all invested in the market. I'm 43 years old right now. Things will be fine going forward, okay? But if you're approaching an area where you don't want to withstand a five-year pullback, okay, maybe that five-year pullback will put you in a place you're not comfortable with, have these conversations with yourself and say, you know what? I would be ecstatic right now with the run we've had this year from 3,800 to 4,500. If you told me that I can guarantee myself the money I have in the market right now is trading at 5,745, we'll call it, in five years. You can do that with risk-free rates of return right now in the yield. Now, the flip side of that, right, is that we just trade it up almost 1,200 points in the last year. We basically did from 3,500 to above 4,600, okay? That would be your entire price appreciation over five years if you lock that in, okay? So the opportunity cost is real, man, okay? That's why I have my money in retirement just locked into really some growth stocks, man, going forward, still being young enough that I can have that exposure. There's a very real chance in five years that the S&P is at 10,000, okay? That's your risk. But at least have that conversation and realize right now that over a five-year period, you can be at 5,743. Over a four-year period, you can add 1,000 S&P points risk-free right now. And I think that's going to be a little bit of a headwind for the market because you look at the price valuations we're at right now, yields are so much higher, no matter what you're talking about, okay? Do you remember the whole conversation of how growth companies are built on future cash that is now a lower value because interest rates are higher? That is a real part of the valuation basis of growth companies, okay? It's based on future earnings and the value of those future earnings is less when the risk-free rate of return is so high, right? Versus paying for future earnings when yields are very low is a much more profitable scenario, okay? Yields are very high right now. So future earnings are not valued as much because I just gave you the scenario, right? You can get risk-free 5,700 so you really better be getting some big-time earnings to pay for them if you can do it without the risk of a growth company, et cetera. Nonetheless, sitting at these price points, seeing what yields are doing right now, be aware that 5% is out there over a five-year period right now and I would just do some ladders if you're in that at all. I know this is like a market show we're talking CDs and yields but we're in an exceptional period of time right now, folks. Getting over generational inflation, yields are extremely high. We're seeing it pushing the highs yet again and yes, they can go higher and that's why I like maybe the latter. If you're gonna go out five years, don't buy a five-year right now. You can't go wrong with that. Buy a five-year ladder and then they're rolling every year, you're repricing it and you can't get hurt either way because the problem is if inflation, so let's do the risk on the yield. What's the opportunity cost of locking in the yields on the inflation standpoint? Well, if you lock in that five-year return right now, let's say you buy a five-year CD, right? Say, man, I can't go wrong. I'm probably getting 4.5% right now on a five-year CD. I don't know what it is, maybe somebody can tell me. Say, I can't go wrong. You can go wrong if inflation roars back up and hits 9% and 10% again, right? As opposed to if you're in a five-year ladder, follow this. If you're in a five-year ladder, you lock in an APY of approaching 5% right now because you have such high yields on the one-year, on the two-year, things start to trail off a bit on the three, four and five-year, right? And I'll pull up these rates during the next break. Maybe I can even get them up right now. Let me see if I can get them up right now as I talk. The great thing about a ladder is if a year from now inflation has roared back up, what's going to happen? You're going to be able to take that first-year ladder. You're going to be able to take that, rebuy a five-year, and boom, you're back at a higher price point because if you lock yourself in to 4.6% folks and we have inflation roar back up to 10%, you're losing a lot of money, right? Four-year, 4.65. Thank you as I'm pulling it up myself right now. Thank you. Yeah, so my APY I'm showing on a five-year ladder is 4.89% is your APY. And on a five-year, I was pretty close. 4.55 is the yield on a five-year. A four-year is 4.65. On the short end of that, you're talking about 5.35 for a one-year, 5.05 for a two-year. So have those conversations, man, because you're talking about 5,700. You're talking about 5,500 over four years. You add 1,000 S&P points after we just ran 1,000 S&P points over the period of a year, right? Opportunity costs and everything, folks. There are costs and risks in many decisions, especially when it comes to your investments, but realize, and I don't think a lot of people realize how exceptional the period of time we are in is. We had 0% interest rates for a very long period of time. We're back to a real rate that you're actually earning something, even above inflation at this point, okay? And you're back to a nominal rate of pushing 5%, man, which we haven't seen for some time. And I don't think those are going to be going down for some time. And on the CD front, right? When you go to banks, they're going to have to be paying for capital for some time right now. So you got a period of a year or two maybe that they're remaining high, but have that conversation. We're seeing yield spike yet again today. And who's to say where inflation ends up in three or six months, folks? We got crude prices back above 80 bucks, right? That's going to be in the conversation for energy prices. We got volatility, but you take a look at the last year. We're talking about higher prices all the way back to November. $80. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back for the open. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right. But you're not most people, are you? At TFNN, you'll get the guidance you need to refine your strategies and techniques to invest like a pro. Because you'll be a pro. All TFNN subscriptions, books, software, and courses are available at TFNN.com. And I'm even going to tell you how to get them for less. Use TFNN's Tiger Dollars and you'll get up to a 20% bonus on your purchase. And once you apply them to your account, Tiger Dollars are automatically used for all future or recurring charges. 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We went down, up, and then down. 2.5% down, 2.5% up, 2.5% down, all in a week. That's remarkable moves on the Russell Man. We jump over to the VIX. The VIX has life again, pushing 17 at $16.93 as the price of insurance goes up with a little bit of market action to the downside. Now, yeah, that was one of the articles that I had up here. Sunjolt, Sunjump in volatility spells trouble for U.S. stocks. They talk about the VIX here. It was at a low of $12.70 last week. It's going to be interesting to see, excuse me, what happens here as investors have been using this low VIX for some time. Investors focusing on risk and volatility control strategies who allocate stock market exposure based on market moves have been among those buying into the stock market rally in recent months. And while the buying from these types of investors has helped the S&P get within 5% of its all-time high, it could work in the opposite direction if the rise in volatility forces them to slash their equity exposure. Nonetheless, we'll see what happens, how that plays out. So we talked about the yield curve here. I'm going to jump to Mr. Ackman, Pershing Square Capital in a moment, but we check out the yield curve again because he's going to talk about it. We're pushing 4.18%. The yield on the 10-year right now, the 30-year is sitting at 4.28%. In the 10-year, 4.18%. The 30-year, about 4.28%. Remarkable, you're only getting paid, right? A 10th% more for going out 30 years versus going out 10 years. You back it up to the 2-year, we're at 4.91%. Yield inversion, as we've all been talking about. So Pershing Square Capital, Mr. Ackman, he's going short. He's short the 30-year in specific. And it's an interesting argument, man. I think it's a real argument. He's talking up his own book, okay? But let's jump over to the 30-year, which is the ZB in the futures. If he's been in this trade for a week, he's already made six points from 126 to 120, right? So maybe he's talking it up now. Nonetheless, it's been quite a pullback as we have higher yields coming at you right now. The argument he makes in here is that the deluge of supply that we've been talking about as well. They talk about it down here. We're talking about the 10-year and beyond has been weighed by refunding debt sales of 103 billion next week, up from 96 billion in May, in the first boost to the so-called quarterly refunding since 2001. That's going to include $23 billion of 30-year bonds, which are scheduled one week from today, August 10th. The 30-year yield could reach 5.5%. If long-term inflation holds at 3% instead of 2% according to Ackman, 5.5%. Well, I pulled up the curve to show you that we're at 4.28% right now. That would be quite a shift for longer-term rates to push 5.5% on a 30-year basis. There are many times in history where the bond market reprices the long end of the curve in a matter of weeks, and this seems like one of those times. Well, that was a mammoth move from 126 to 120, man, but we're still at only 4.28%, right? So look at where we are, where we have the potential to go, and the price action that that might create. You get the Dow grade this week. Now, he talks about this as a hedge to his equity positions, okay? He's making a sizable bet on declines for the 30-year treasuries as a hedge on the impact of higher long-term rates on stocks. He also mentions in here, though, that the best hedges are the ones that you would make standing alone. Nonetheless, I think it's a real argument, man, 4.3% with everything going on where inflation is. We've all heard the conversation, right, about maybe the Fed is going to accept a 3% number in the longer-term basis as markets continue to sell off. We're pushing 45.12 right now. Let's see where we are on a Fibonacci basis. This is a daily from just even July 10th. That was a one-way trip, man. Yeah, we're crossing the 50% of that pullback. Let's back this out. Let's see what kind of price levels we start dealing with as this thing really... Look how far we come, man. A 3.82 of the run we've had over the last five months would bring us down another 200 points in the S&P. And what would that do? It would fill the gap from June 9th. Put that one on your radar, man. 43.20 on the S&Ps. That's your 3.82. That's the gap there. And where else is that? Man, look at this. Yeah. Right there. It'd be a retest of the August high of last year. Well, if you want some price action, you want some targets on your chart, man, there it is. It would make sense that you could come back in that area, maybe an area of support. You'd fill the gap that you have from June, as I mentioned. That's a weekly. It's got a gap on a weekly basis as well. And boy, we got a long way to go because this is a one-way trip of almost an 800 point leg. And I didn't even cherry pick the high. Sometimes Fibonacci's folks, you know, you take a look at the daily, you take a look at this area. I just kind of picked the maybe a line of linear regression type high there, right? We hit that price level on July 28. We hit it on the 31st. We turned over on August 1. We got just slightly above that level on July 27. If you back it up on a 10-day basis, you can see how that kind of lines up with potentially an area of resistance. Maybe you could say it's a little bit higher. But boy, when you go longer term, man, even just going back last couple of years, that 382 is 4320 and we got to a high of 4327 in August of 2022. But boy, we got a long way to go if we get any type of retracement here. It's been quite a run of 800 points, man, in the S&Ps. And that's why I think that risk-free rate of return seems even more attractive, right? Because you're locking it in after you've risen 1000 points in the S&Ps and you have yields now climbing. You wait for a pullback and the numbers change pretty dramatically, as you can see as we're moving pretty quickly in this market right now with the S&P, basically off 100 points in two days. And we got yields, man. And you see the case getting made by many on Wall Street that they could be dramatically higher. Very difficult to imagine 2% is the world we're going back to, man. So we'll see where we go. Crude 8025, we jump over to the gold contract this morning. Gold trading at 1973, we take a look at the dollar index, dollar strength 102.66. We're up another eight basis points right now. Eight pennies at 102.66. We're a little bit higher in the pre-market. Dollars had quite a run as well. The last week you've gone from 160 to 102.62 full points. So keep your eye on the dollar. Keep your eye on yields because right now it's going on no matter what the Fed is doing, okay? We have a repricing of yields going on. That's leading to a much stronger dollar, which is weighing on markets. That is correlation in this market right now. Okay, we've seen it in yields, especially you look at the 30 year, we drop from 126 to 120. At that same time, we've had the dollar index go from just above 100, 160, two full points to 102.60. And in that same time, you've seen the S&Ps drop from last Thursday at 46.34. Really, it's been a quick shot over the last couple of days, but we are down 120 points, two and a half percent. Stay tuned, folks. We'll take a look at Amazon. We'll take a look at Apple. We'll take a look at them before their numbers tonight when we get back. Stay tuned. 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Apple and Amazon results pose tech rally's toughest hurdle yet. I mean, check out these two stocks, man. We'll blow up this chart here. Apple, Amazon results follow strong gains. This is this year, okay? Amazon's in the black here, above 50%. Apple is in the red here, almost 50%. NASDAQ 100 up 40%. Both of these equities outperforming even the NASDAQ 100. We know the run Apple has had, right? Yeah, for sure. They continue to talk about it here. So this rally, some of the numbers in here, okay? This rally, $6 trillion in value to the S&P 500 index this year. That's almost a trillion dollars a month, man. We're only seven months into the year and we've added $6 trillion in value, adding a trillion dollars in value. But the sector has struggled to advance after coming within 5% of the NASDAQ 100's all-time high last month. Apple, 48% gained so far. Three trillion dollar company. And let's see how these companies are trading right now. Because Apple was flirting. They're still above a trillion. You know what though? They might have gotten under that number at $190.69. It's pretty close to where they are. We jumped to some of the other fang stocks, Microsoft shares trading down 1.10%. Amazon ahead of their numbers down about 6.10% right now. We jump over to Google off half a percent. Nvidia shares up 1.10% right now. We jumped to some of the other companies with their numbers. Warner Brother Discovery with their numbers. There's some volatility for you. Only down about 16 cents. This thing had some volatility priced into it off about 1.2% on their numbers. Let's see. I did have them up. I'm going to loss. There we go. So they lose subscribers after the max launch but makes headway on their debt pay down. 95.8 million. Pretty remarkable right? That they got that number. I mean almost 100 million subscribers and they're like the you know vaunted stepchild or something of the streaming industry. And they have 100 million subscribers man. Global direct to consumer streaming subscribers at the end of the period 95.8 million. The market though was looking for about 2 million above that number. Okay. They're paying down some of their debt 2.7 billion dollars is what they're trying to pay down. Loss per share 51 cents versus 38 expected though and revenue they miss as well. Yeah. So this is probably going to be trading down revenue 5% higher year over year on an actual basis but 4% lower when you take into account foreign exchange currency. So they got a little bit lucky on the foreign exchange market right there. Yeah. So the direct to consumer streaming segment turned a profit for the first time during the first quarter of the year but posted a loss of 3 million for the second quarter. Okay. execs had warned of that reversal citing costs associated with the max launch. If you're familiar I have max I guess you call it now it used to be HBO max. Wonder Brothers Discovery Studios drag down earnings revenue segment down 8%. The flash was released but barely topped 100 million. That was a big problem for them. And yeah. So they are going to yeah. Discovery when they this this combo they're going to have with Discovery man that's going to be a good deal for them. They got 100 million subscribers. They're going to be a player and you know half joking but this was the Bill Hwang run up to 78 bucks before you go to eight dollars pretty remarkable but at some point they're going to be a decent competitor there and they're priced for a lot of hardships that are going on right now. I mean they just launched that max but there's nothing like HBO man. I remember when I was a kid it's pretty funny. So we're going back probably when I was like 10 years old eight years old and I remember that HBO intro. I was just barely old enough to probably understand. Remember the HBO would be spinning in outer space right folks I'm going back 35 years ago. Okay and they're still around and they're still one of the best production houses out there in terms of content. So they are going to be a player and the Discovery network they have in there etc it's a good combo they have going on. So I always kind of have this one on my radar. You're trading at 12 bucks right now. You're up from eight dollars at the beginning of the year but you take a look at this equity right you're going back to all the way basically to where this thing was eight bucks in 2005 Warner Brothers Discovery a bunch of spikes and we're at some low prices there so might be an opportunity as things are not going that well and they're at the beginning of that quest to turn things around. All right what else we got pulled up here. Yeah we talked about the downgrade and shouldn't be too surprising here either man listen politics is the art of compromise man everybody's got differing opinions okay we need some compromises. The far right and the far left get all the headlines because they say all the things and they get the loudest voices okay but we need some compromise because that's what it's going to take and I don't expect that's what's coming right now and that's kind of what the journal is talking about won't break Washington's tax and spending habits and it's all over the place folks all right you get tax cuts being given away by Republicans that just add to the debt and don't really do anything to that degree even though they're promised to somehow be tax neutral you have Democrats that want to spend a lot right and aren't as concerned with that the tax debate of of those are wealthy paying more I tell you one thing I was reading the other day man you know it's it's the gap when you get to like and it gets so political but but at some point folks I have a son that's two and a half years old okay and things do need to get repaired and yes you want to have stronger economics but I tell you the gap of people that are making like one million two million five million ten million anywhere above that your tax bracket drops dramatically as you get above that threshold you know if you're a if you're a w2 employee making 250 grand 400 grand right 500 grand a million dollars you're getting taxed pretty heavily but once you get out of that w2 state and you're you know a real estate investor right you're you're owning businesses and corporations and tax write-offs and this and that it's uh it's a tremendous amount of loopholes that exist there so something needs to get done in the middle you know but guess what that's not happening right now man and that's the whole case with higher yields as we have this conversation and it's going to be really interesting if somehow we shift from the inflation debate which matters because that's where pershing square capital is having that conversation of saying listen interest rates are based on inflation inflation might be recalibrated here on a longer-term basis and if that's the case you are going to see a repricing of yields on a longer-term basis right and and it'd be interesting to see if that's where the rapid inflation debate goes now to the what do we what's our plateau where are we and what is that going to do to yields and right now man I think yields are waking up to the fact that hey this last hurrah from 3% to 2% might not be as quick as we think and maybe the Fed will begin cutting and guess what if we get to like 3% if we get to 3.2 if we get to 3.1 and they are convinced that we are at that level they actually can make a reasonable case that you can cut because you're still in such a restrictive rate policy we're at 5.5% on the Fed if growth is only coming in at 3.1% you can bring it down to four and a half you can bring it down to four and a quarter and you're still restrictive you can bring it down to three and a half and technically you'd still be restrictive that's what we get to watch play out S&Ps right now we trade to a low 45.08 we're bouncing a bit markets in negative territory we've got higher yields we've got one more segment stay tuned folks i'll be right back TfNN has just launched their new trading room the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord TfNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or at it costs when you join our community of traders in the Tiger's Den you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TfNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends the Tiger's Den 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refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TfNN.com educating investors don't forget you can listen to TfNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TfNN.com then hit watch tiger tv that's TfNN.com then hit watch tiger tv folks I got a chart of qualcom up here qualcom down 10% right now that's a $13 hit we're trading a $116 we were trading yesterday the close at about $130 we jump over to qualcom they miss on revenue they miss on guidance net income fell 52% year-over-year handset chip sales declined 25% year-over-year they make a lot of the chips in low and high-end phone sales that is in so that are in so many android phones most particularly earnings they make a buck 87 versus a dollar 81 this is what's always so interesting in the but the market right you could make the case that what are they reporting they're reporting their earnings for the last 90 days they're also reporting a lot more than that though because if it was just their earnings they make more they made more than what the market was looking for but what did they say well they missed on revenue 8.44 versus 8.5 and they missed on expectations which you're coming in at $1.80 to $2 a share with 8.1 to 8.9 billion market was looking for $1.91 on 8.7 billion net income dropped 52% and yeah they have a lot of android phones handset chip sales 25% decline year-over-year and they get some downgrades out there from dutch bank among some others i believe so yeah qualcomm facing some heat man you're down 10% as the phone the high end and low end androids maybe taking a hit as consumers take a hit and that's what i was talking about keep october on your radar man remember october the student loan payments they begin in october october november december what's going to happen in the final three months of the year things might be getting squeezed a little bit we're coming into the holidays student loan repayments begin for i think 27 million people see what happens man it's an interesting day folks thanks so much for starting your thursday off with me we got our man basal Chapman he's coming up next and don't forget teddy cakes that he's got a webinar coming up a week from this coming monday as well talking about japanese candlesticks check that out on the front page of tf and i will talk to teddy next wednesday again but that should be interesting $97 60 minute webinar with our mad teddy stay tuned for basal folks live programming after that s and p is off by 18 nasdaq off by 35 you get the non-form payroll numbers tomorrow morning as well stay tuned for basal we'll see you tomorrow have a great one folks