 Hello, welcome to this tutorial on systems analysis for problem formulation. My name is Will Dissen and I am teaching policy analysis at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management. In this tutorial I will explain why and how you can use systems analysis concepts for problem formulation and analysis. Systems analysis is a broad field and I will limit myself here to a few basic concepts, in particular the system or problem diagram. I will explain the basic notions in the first video and present a simple example in the second video. Both videos start from the perspective of a single problem owner. I call this the monoactorsituation. The third video explains the use of systems analysis in a multi-actor situation. Why should you be interested in using systems analysis concepts anyway? Suppose you have discussed the problem of your client. You have used means-and-sets analysis and an objectives tree for problem demarcation. Your problem owner also has given you some idea about the solutions he or she has in mind. But are these solutions suited for the particular problem? Will they work while perhaps other factors and actors outside the control of your client influence the outcomes? Will they have undesirable side effects? Are perhaps other solutions options available? Systems thinking will help you to connect the different pieces of your analysis and help you answer these and other questions. More particularly, use of a system diagram provides a basic structure that will help you integrate and connect the demarcation of the problem area, the analysis of objectives and means of the problem owner, the causal assumptions about how the means affect the attainment of the objectives, the identification of external factors and their possible future influences, and the actor and network analysis. Because it helps you integrate and connect these elements, a system diagram is an essential aid for achieving consistency in your analysis. A system diagram provides a basic map of all the key elements of your problem analysis and that is an excellent starting point for further analysis and modeling of the system in search for insights that will help your client choose appropriate actions. Finally, a system diagram, if not too complicated at least, can help you communicate your insights to your client and other stakeholders. Let me now briefly explain the basics of the system or problem diagram. A system diagram is a simple conceptual model that represents the key aspects of a problem situation. It specifies what part of reality is of interest to the problem owner. We call that part the system. The system boundary is generally displayed as a dashed rectangle or a box. What is in the box is considered to be part of the system. What is outside is part of the system's surroundings or system context. Your client is interested in specific outcomes of the system. We call those the outcomes of interest or criteria and display them as factors on the right hand side of the system. We assume the problem owner has certain means through which he or she can deliberately influence system behavior. We represent these on the left hand side of the diagram. There will generally also be factors that influence system behavior but that are not under control of the problem owner. In these factors we call external or contextual factors and we place those at the top of the diagram. By way of convention we portray the means as rectangles and the other factors as ovals. So far the system box is empty. It is useful to indicate how the means and outside factors may affect the criteria. And therefore we portray the causal pathways and system factors through which the means and external factors affect the criteria inside the box. Note that the elements of the system diagram also specify the structure of the so-called scorecard. A scorecard is a table where we put the criteria on the horizontal axis and the means on the vertical axis. If we have sufficient understanding how the system works, that is, how the means affect the criteria, we can complete the scorecard by filling out the individual cells. For example, if means M1 will positively affect criteria C1 and C2, we put a plus sign in the related cell. Similarly, the minus sign in the first row indicates a negative impact of M1 on C3. If we expect no significant impact, we may put a zero in the cell and a question mark if we don't know whether there will be an impact or what its direction will be. Now let's get back to the system diagram and its construction. As a first step you explore the problem situation and choose the scope of analysis as explained in the video on problem demarcation. Next, you specify the criteria using an objectives tree. The criteria will be the outputs of your system. Third, you identify key system factors that affect the criteria by using means and analysis and causal analysis. Eventually, you identify the means that can be used by the problem owner and relevant external factors. Fourth, and this is very important, you should check your diagram for completeness and consistency. The following questions will help you check the completeness and consistency of your diagram. First, does the set of system outcomes at the right hand of your system diagram correspond with the set of criteria you found at the bottom of your objectives tree? Second, does a set of means at the left hand of your system diagram match the conclusions of your means and analysis? Third, check whether all the means have an impact on at least one of the criteria. If not, the means may very well be not relevant at all. Fourth, check whether all the external factors affect at least one of the criteria. And fifth, have you identified and included relevant side effects of the means? For example, the costs or other negative side effects of using the means are often forgotten. If the answer to any of these questions is no, then you should go back, iterate and revise and possibly enrich your analysis. And after that, check again. What can you learn from a completed system diagram to sharpen your understanding of the problem situation? First, you may find intrinsic dilemmas. Are there any actions or changes that are always good for some goals but bad for other goals? The presence of such dilemmas indicates that the client will have to make difficult trade-offs. Second, you can get a first idea about the effectivity of the client's actions and whether, in theory, the client can attain all of its goals. Perhaps the client's influence is only minor and other factors or actors will have to be involved. Third, you may explore the extent to which the criteria are sensitive to external influences. How uncertain is the development of the contextual factors and to what extent may such developments seriously affect system behavior and outcomes? Might there be future situations in which perhaps the client's goals are attained without taking action? You can learn more about this by viewing the tutorial on future explanations. Finally, look for critical knowledge gaps. For example, some of the relevant causal relations may be very uncertain and this indicates a need for further research. So far, I have outlined the principles of using a system diagram in general terms. I understand that much of this may sound very abstract. Chapter 3 of our coursebook on policy analysis of multi-actors systems contains more material and in the next video I will illustrate the use and construction of a system diagram using an example. Thank you for your attention.