 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Lot to cover for today because we have no be a decent slate going on for tonight But also some futures talk across the NFL now that we know what the Cleveland Browns outlook for 2022 looks like I'll go through my wind total projections for them and outline a better like in the AFC north based on the news from last week And we'll recap last week go through some golf and NASCAR best Talk about in the show and let you know how things went there. So a lot of ground to cover Let's dive on in and break it on down welcome on in to covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Welcome you to today's show again. We'll be talking about some NLB later on today some strikeout products my numbers like we'll go through 2022 futures bets in the AFC north and much more first of all big Thank you to Tom Vecchio for filling in for me back on Friday Tom We'll be back with you Thursday and Friday of this week to talk about Some more baseball and some more NFL stuff I will be out in Ireland for the Northwestern versus Nebraska game not to cover just for fun He's got to watch the cats international cats coming up this week So he fly went to Ireland on Wednesday for that out in Dublin gonna be a blast pretty pumped for that So Tom will be back with you Thursday and Friday check out Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom will still have a shows every day throughout this week gonna have our typical show tomorrow with a pitching ninja and brandy Caduva and then also on Wednesday at fang will drop by to talk about week zero in college football It is already here. We'll get some Nebraska Northwestern questions in there as well We'll dive on into the MLB slate for today in just one second First a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course aren't of a podcast Spotify Wherever else you get your podcasts. We are there hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review again We are now in daily shows for hopefully ever Especially with NFL season just around the corner So hit subscribe to get all that in your podcast feed wherever you listen to your podcast NFL kickoff is still a few weeks away But you can get in on the action now on fangal sportsbook with their NFL superwin bonus right now Anyone who places at least a $50 Super Bowl winner bet will get $5 back for each win Their team has during the regular season There are also a ton of other futures markets available like team win totals division winners player props and so much more There is no better place to get ready for football season than on fangal America's number one sports book an Official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states only Bonus issued is non with drobble free beds to expire seven days after a seat max free bet $50 Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash rg in Arizona 1800 next step or Texan acceptify 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpd.org slash chat in indiana 1809 with it in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open Why in Tennessee call the red line at 1 8 hundred 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 in West Virginia 100 gambler.net or in Wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4700 couldn't provide any money lines But my numbers like for today at least based on the Monday morning numbers did lock in the raise Minus 190 last night, but that is no longer available. So let's talk about some strikeout props My favorite one for today is going to be Domingo Armand under four and a half strikeouts and right now at fandal sportsbook That's at minus 102. You can get a better number elsewhere. I will say that yeah plus 120 I'm staring at it right now. So shop around find the best number on airman because you can get better than minus 102 Currently a fandal sportsbook. I have airman at 3.9 for strikeouts and It's combination of a couple things putting me towards the under here The first one is that airman hasn't been super effective He has a 19% strikeout rate across his six starts in the majors this year He's also facing a team with an active roster strikeout rate of 20% He's also not getting a ton of leash from a pitch count perspective He said 90 pitches once but has never exceeded that and he's gone 86 or fewer pitches in all of his other starts Now the caveat here is I had an under on airman last week did not go well He finished with six strikeouts on 71. I believe pitches. So that didn't go well But I'm gonna go back to it here once again I just think that it's the right move when you add together everything here with the pitch counts Potentially some rain in the mix in New York as well Matchups pretty tough not super effective. The Mets could just chase him early because they're a pretty good offense I think you add all that together and it says to me the under is the play here for airman now in terms of When you're betting this your guardrails for knowing what to bet it at I've actually got a month's strikeout or is under odds at 63 percent. That might be a bit high So what I would say is take 63 lower it a little bit Once we get to minus 150. That's about 60 percent implied odds. That's where you probably back off I would say probably before that to to give yourself more value more wiggle room But I doubt we get there honestly just based on where the market currently is and again You can get my or plus 120 under five and a half or four and a half right now For Fandall it's at minus 102 even at minus 102. I think that's totally fine I would say to give myself wiggle room to be wrong I would be okay going to minus 130 on the under here I would also say if you're if you're restricted to just Fandall It's probably going to shift from minus 102 because the other numbers are above this one So I'd expect that to probably length it back out to Plus, you know, even money somewhere around there So if you're going to bet Fandall wait a bit potentially see if the other markets move, but Overall, I would say you want the under on airman at four and a half strikeouts again My numbers have under odds at 63 Use that as your guiding light to decide Whether the numbers available to you are advantageous or ones you would like to pass up on I'm also showing a bit of value on jaco d'arizzi though not a ton right now He's at plus 114 in the Fandall alternate strikeout prop market to go over four and a half strikeouts so they get five plus strikeouts and I haven't projected at 4.35 which puts odorizzi's over odds around a 49 percent His implied odds are 46.7 percent. So it's a pretty small edge This one really does depend on the number you can find there weren't some three and a half floating around on odorizzi this morning And they're still available. Um, again minus 135. He's a draft king's right now over over three and a half I actually am okay with that one. I haven't 60 percent to go over three and a half So around minus 150 be fair market there if you can find him at Even longer odds to get five plus strikeouts I could buy in there So a bit more aggressive. It does have Pretty big home road splits and he's on the road here. So account for that But some of the road starts he's had it been against lower strikeout teams I've not fed this one yet. I like a bigger edge before I buy into this again. I'm at 49 or 49 percent He's at 47 implied in the fandall market, but Over three and a half Minus 150 or so. I think it's a fair number. You can get minus 135 as of right now So I check around at odorizzi. See if you are comfortable with what he's doing See if you like, uh, the matchup brand against the pirates stuff like that Weather is in play a bit here, which is scary for it over. So check that out as well but I would say shop around at odorizzi see what you can get and if you can get an advantageous number I could be okay there with the fandall market with the other markets. I have not bit yet But I'm close to doing so so check around at odorizzi But I'm on to me is the prime strikeout prop target for today Let's go now and talk about some nfl futures We now know the length of the dishaun watson suspension. He will be suspended 11 games after Two dozen credible accusations of sexual misconduct and in some cases sexual assaults. We have some Uh clarity here on the length of the suspension And after I put shakomi per set in as a starter for those first 11 games of the browns I the browns win total 8.7 wins their win total at fandall right now It's eight and a half with plus 135 on the over and that's good enough where I think you could consider the over For this team looking into the schedule here for the browns. I actually do have them favored Uh, at least slight favorites in each of their first four games They get the panthers and falcons on the road. They get the jets and the stealers at home That's not a bad stretch for them And things get awful from there on out So their next seven games before watson returns are all really really tough. I think I have them as underdogs in Literally all those games after the first four. So they're gonna have a bad stretch. We know that for sure Yeah, they're underdogs in all those games for me after the After the first four games so pretty good the first four games next seven really really rough and then they get back Get watson back in week number 13 And they have at least 60 win odds In five out of six games with watson back, which is how you get to 8.7 wins I am personally not going to bet this one. Um, I don't want to have any reason to root for this team Honestly, I don't want to be happy if they win. I don't want that personally just don't feel good about that So I'm not gonna bet it. Uh, they have great talent on this roster That's why the projection is high the non quarterback talent the browns is very good And that's why my numbers are so high if you put watson on there in full They'd be the fourth best team in the league by my numbers So that's why I'm pretty high on them from a numbers perspective at 8.7 wins for this year In terms of the afc north, uh, the browns are behind the bangles and ravens I've got the bangles of 10 wins and the ravens at 9.1. That's probably pretty low for the ravens at 9.1 wins But they're crazy difficult to project Not a lot of past catching talent despite isiah likely just beasting out in the preseason last night preseason Dfs god isiah likely passing efficiency is a big part of my model and it's tough to make them be super efficient in that arena when You know the stuff behind mark andrews and rasha bateman is dicey to say the least and even you know bateman I like him. I think he's gonna be good, but still a bit untested So it's hard for me to get super high in that from a modeling perspective But the bangles have the best win total by my projections by 0.9 wins decent amount of wiggle room there to be wrong They are plus 170 to win the afc north, which is 37 implied odds I'm kind of wanting to bite on that. I think that's actually a pretty good number and I Think that's my biggest takeaway here is that the bangles are currently a value to win The afc north right now got them that again 10 wins ravens 9.1 Browns 8.7 and let me check on the Steelers really quick. I think they're on 8 7.1 wins for the Steelers for right now tough to bet against my tommelin, but With the infrastructure on the quarterback. It's uh in the quarterbacking situation Tough to get higher than that. So it's very possible. I am too low on several teams in the afc north being the The ravens and the Steelers, but I agree with what my numbers say about the bangles I think they deserve to be as high as they are right now So I will go with the bangles at plus 170 to win the afc north I think they're a value to win there. I would take them there very okay with that one I think that's a key takeaway here again my numbers of choice and value on the browns uh over eight and a half at plus 135, but Not for me personally with the way I want to play things in terms of rooting interests, uh for this year That's going to recap the uh wrap up the forward looking stuff for this week But as I mentioned last week, I do want to keep the covering the past element of the show and play here largely for accountability So you know that we're not giving out Um recommendations here that way you have better information to decide Do I actually care what this guy says or should I look elsewhere for my bets? So I do want to go back through some bets from last week specifically the longer term once It's hard to recap all the baseball stuff. The last week was a pretty good week For the most part in regards to that last week We had brandy gudula on as always preview the bmw championship. We'll have him on tomorrow as well Talk about the tour championship He had zander schoffley add 20 to 1 to win. He finished third. He was in contention all week He was right up there. We're wearing macaroy five shots back and finished eighth He was 10 to 1 and then the matchup's brandy discussed He went 1 1 and 1 in those he hit on adam scott over see heat the gala that was minus 118 The draw was max homa and tearo hatton. There was no tie option there. So that one does push always be aware of that when you're betting to make sure Typically for the most part you're going to want the option that gives you the push You'll get better odds if a push is involved or a draw is involved in the market But more often than not that's going to be a higher hold market because they can kind of sneak higher hold in there on you Without you really knowing about it So for the most part you do want to go at the markets that Do include a push if there is a draw And that was the case of brandon last week sound did push the loss was brian harmon topping mito perera mito Kind of struggled again. He's had a rough little stretch here for a bit. So Harmon topped mito there Only 30 golfers in the field for this week for the tour championship really fun format We will need brandon's expertise to figure out how to handle that one He'll be on with us tomorrow to preview the tour championship and discuss all the intricacies for you there for an askar I had a shot with mike mcdowell at 30 to 1 I talked about 30 to 1. He was available at 40 to 1 Before the week, but then he went out and qualified third So mcdowell closed at 20 to 1 to win the race on sunday and he wasn't contention all day He led 14 laps he was out front for a long stretch of this race, but Once chase ellie got past him mcdowell slid back restarted third with Just a couple of laps left and did not get a good restart got pushed back got shuffled back Why not finishing sixth? So Didn't cash on mcdowell, but good closing line value going from his shortest odds Which are 30 to 1 closing at 20 to 1 And having a guy at that long and contention all day I felt pretty good about that. So did not cash, but I think the process was there and the results You know not too bad Despite the bet not caching the other bet I had mentioned as potentially liking on the show was joey hand top 10 at 18 to 1 that closed at 15 to 1 So again some good clv there and hand was actually running in the top six. Thanks and strategy He ran super long on his pit strategy and actually stretched out his fuel Now the downside of that was he was running six, but had to take more fuel Once he came in led to a longer pit stop. So he came out running around 19th He had worked his way back up to 15th was trying to pass martin trex junior for 14th and he wiped out. So he wrecked But you know again in contention viable bet at 15 to 1 I think that are at 18 to 1 good closing line value So although the nascar stuff didn't break in my favor from a results perspective I still felt really good about the bets not just mcdowell I also had a chris pusher one added post practice or post qualifying the nascar helper up on number fire dot com That's where you'll see all my stuff that I add post qualifying is up on number fire dot com Don't have time to do a full podcast there, but Tell good about pusher. Tell good about mcdowell didn't break my favor in terms results But still I thought overall a solid weekend across the board. I'm excited for datona for this week I'll try to find some time to squeeze in datona talk. Maybe tomorrow I'll try to run my sims tonight to get you Some datona discussion in there And we can also maybe talk some f1 So I'll try to run those numbers tonight to get that on the show tomorrow Since I will be out from on thursday and friday That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread a kind of uh covering the gambit for today across mlb and nfl looking forward and then looking back at pga and nascar as well as mentioned tomorrow We're pitching ninja on he's gonna preview The tuesday slate for mlb talked about his favorite strikeout props He did hit edward cabrera last week over four and a half and minus 106 We'll see if he can uh go back to back with good recommendations there Brandon could do a little swing by break down his thoughts on the tour championship as well And like I said, I tried to squeeze in some nascar as well If you want to get that in all of our podcasts right as they go up Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there Like what you hear Leave us a rating and review as well. If you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck to you with your mlb vets for tonight Whatever it may be we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk some end of the and some pga This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network