 Hello everyone. Welcome to the 100th International Relations Capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. So 100 capsules means 100 weeks and these 100 weeks mean a large number of global issues we discussed. Of course, one can think of the several issues that we discussed in these last 100 weeks. But interestingly, today we are in the middle of a war still even after one year that is 365 days. The Russia-Ukraine war is raging and at the same time there is a meeting going on in Delhi of G-15, G-20, which of course the main summit meeting is only towards the end of the year. But as it happened, two meetings were held, one in Bangalore of the Ministers of Finance. There is a finance track is also for G-20. And then a ministerial meeting, foreign ministers meeting in preparation for the summit is taking place in Delhi, two days I think as today did before. So we are in the middle of the crisis and so we can talk a little bit about what is happening at the moment. When India took over the presidency of G-20, there was much expectation that India might be able to play a role in ending the conflict because India is now the chair of G-20. G-20 is assuming higher and higher responsibilities because the Security Council is paralyzed. India has been neutral on this question. So these are all factors which people felt that might be applicable in the summit in Delhi. Of course the G-20 agenda is large. There are many, many issues, development, economic issues, pandemic. Then this war, so many things have happened. And so the expectation was that even though G-20 has a large agenda, the predominant agenda will be the Ukraine war. Everybody expected that. Although we in India did not focus on that. We were saying generally that we will discuss economic agendas. We will talk about multilateralism, many others but no mention of the Ukraine war. But everybody felt that at this time nothing else can be discussed without discussing the Ukraine war. Because if the war doesn't end, then there will be so many issues to be led to the G-20. And therefore it may be better to begin with a solution to the war. Then one other encouraging issue was that in Bali where there was a summit of G-20 before India took over. In the summits in Bali, the declaration contained some paragraphs which were on the war but which could be accepted by everyone even the countries in conflict like the United States and Ukraine or NATO and Ukraine or whatever. And the Bali declaration, there were a couple of paragraphs which were critical of Russia, the mildly critical of Russia. And even that was accepted because India had proposed it. So our expectation was even though our agenda is different, it is economic and social and so on and the pandemic etc. It is only agenda. We thought that that possibly Ukraine conflict will also come up and there may be some compromises possible. China for example put forward peace plan and there were some talks and in Russia even the foreign ministers of Russia and United States talked for a little while. And there are so many events taking place but the finance ministers meeting in Bangalore showed that there is a crisis because Russia and China were not willing to use the language used in Bali because they say that things have changed. What has changed? That is the President Biden's visit to Ukraine and the threat of giving more and more money and weapons to Ukraine to fight against Russia. And therefore when this conclusion, when the meeting in Bangalore was concluded and the joint declaration was being drafted, both Russia and China objected to losing the paragraphs in the Bali language. This was unexpected and therefore our finance minister tried to bring about some kind of reconciliation but did not happen and therefore the meeting was dismissed. So the meeting was completed without dinner and without photographs and no statement, no joint statement. Instead the President, that is President, Finance Minister of India issued a statement on her own behalf and were people who disassociated themselves with etc. So there was no conclusion in the finance minister's meeting. Then soon after came the foreign ministers meeting and for all the foreign ministers came but the discussions were not different in the foreign ministers meeting compared to those at the time of the finance ministers meeting. And all the statements which came from various leaders and they were talking to the press, they were talking to others and they were thinking that some magic might happen after all. This is an interest of the whole world and the situation deteriorates will be much worse for the world and therefore there was this feeling that something might be done. But even after the finance minister statement was not issued and foreign ministers had their discussions, most of them because bilateral discussions telling each other what would I do and what kind of communication or joint declaration could be issued. So these became very interesting and important. But it became very clear by the kind of foreign ministers meeting was concluded that there was no chance of any kind of solution. And so the meeting ended again, the second meeting also ended without a dinner and without a communique and without a photograph. So normally what happens is anywhere in the world there are some important discussions relating to an issue of a conflict, ongoing conflict. Then it is quite possible that agreement will be reached but that will be known. But here people seem to have thought that the agreement would be reached. So there was another setback and the Indian Prime Minister very strongly urged them. After all this is in India so we have a responsibility so we would like to have a joint declaration and some solution would be found. But in spite of all the activities in Delhi nothing happened and the foreign ministers meeting is also concluded. Now the other opportunity is for some discussions to carry on till the summit meeting because summit meeting they have to one way or the other decide what to do physically. And Ukraine and the United States are not willing to go an extra mile. They want more time to discuss these issues of Russia and China keeping out. Others are willing to talk but there isn't much to talk because different items and different groups. So this is a situation. So maybe first discuss whether we see any hope in this war. Will there be a compromise? What are the likely conclusions? Will there be a call for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine? That is what most people want. Other people who are more friendly to Japan say okay there is this thing we can discuss it. And anything that happens in Delhi will be reported and so on. So this is a situation. But it looks as though the meeting is being concluded in that sense because there's no possibility for reopening any of those issues. I myself thought that maybe the meeting will be extended for a day or so but since the summit is sometime away in December. They thought maybe it was not necessary to do that now. At one stroke they can do that when the war is over. All the ministers are still there that has been in quiet meeting and so on. Informal consultations are possible even. But it doesn't look probable because of the heavy shelling and so on. Ukraine is getting ready to engage in a war stronger than what it is now. All this bottomed not very well for India's own position and image. So maybe I can stop there and if there are questions either on what I have just said or generally on the agenda items. On the G20 or any other aspects of international relations that you would like to ask me about. There was some hope that India might be able to do something in these circumstances. But those who have watched the Bangalore meeting and the Delhi meeting. It doesn't seem likely and I think the Prime Minister has not felt comfortable enough to come up with a proposal or a message. He has only been urging them to act. He has not given them any suggestions as to how to act. Everybody knows the answer. The war has to stop and there has to be negotiation. And that's all. There is no other option. So whether you have this statement of body reproduced in the declaration or not. In fact it is reproduced in the foreign affairs, foreign ministers declaration. But it says that paragraph 1 to 3 and then the last paragraph are all accepted by everybody. Which means the steep paragraphs relating to Ukraine have not been accepted by everybody. So this may not cause any big issues as such for India. But Prime Minister is very disappointed and he has spoken about it and he was hoping that people will come around. But these are such important issues that nobody would want to interfere in this. Because they may give suggestions, options etc. But this is eventually between the Russians and the NATO Americans. And there doesn't seem to be any opportunity for a breakthrough. Because even today there has been fighting, rather serious fighting taking place. And they are very upset about Mr Biden's support for Zelensky saying that he will give them $500 million and a lot of other equipment and so on. So all this put together doesn't seem to be any hope. But then of course the summit is only in December and the consultations can continue. Maybe somebody will be able to pull something from the hat and something may happen. But after these two meetings it is not very positive to things like that. If the war stops it is important not only for India and the global community but for everybody. I'm sure Russia and Ukraine will also be very happy. But the problem is that the position is so strong on its side. It's crystallized in such a way that it looks as though China and Russia will certainly not accept any compromise being suggested. So which means it's a failure. And people are already saying it's a failure. But the summit is still coming and at that time things may change also. And there is that expectation that something might turn up to make it look good. But as of now we have facilities, the opportunities, ideas, but nothing seems to be good. So that was not related to G20. Egypt is not in G20 but that was a bilateral visit. And naturally our Prime Minister and the President of Egypt must have talked about all this. But that was also in the bilateral context. And maybe it wanted to be in G20. That's another issue which is pending. So those could be the ideas that we've looked at. But I don't know what kind of discussion took place on the Ukraine-Russia war. So we don't know what exactly. Will it convey the West and Russia? The idea that we are ideologically neutral regarding the war. These are ideas. Because NAM is not a united group in this. Because a lot of countries are voting against Russia in NAM. There are only very few which vote for Russia. And so what can the NAM do? Because NAM's position will also not be acceptable for Russia outside. That is the war should end and that should be negotiation. So our discussions with Egypt or later with any other country may not have a bearing immediately. Unless it was Mr. Blinken who said that if Mr. Putin wants it, he can stop the war immediately. He will not stand in the way. But that's not what Putin thinks. He has his own objectives. And so he won't be happy if somebody just says, please stop the war. And he's not trying to do so. In fact, his idea is to make it more intense in order to teach Russia. Another dialogue is informal conversations. If there is agreement, anything can come out of it. New ideas can come, old ideas can be sorted out. And that is going on on one side. That's why there are several paragraphs in the agreement and there's only two paragraphs on which there is no agreement. So that shows that the discussions in the Raisina Dialogue is not really having an impact. Because Raisina Dialogue is an annual conference where we invite people from outside important dignitaries and thinkers and so on. And then discuss every issue. So discussing issues is not so difficult. But the agreement will be difficult. And if there is fear about the Americans will immediately launch foreign affairs, think tank or something and then start declaring or at least saying that India should be at the center of G20 etc. This may be going on. But we really do not know whether there will be an impact. That's an immediate question of which we are all concerned. And we are all in the revision stage trying to pick up whatever we have learned and try to see what questions are likely to come on the basis of which we are in students. That's what we are doing. I was actually this morning reviewing one of the question papers with my students to see how much of it they know. They know quite a bit. But the subjects are so wide that we don't know whether it will have any impact on the final results. But what we need to do is to just keep our ears and eyes open till the examination day. Because some people may think that already the question papers must have been set. So what is the point in out trying to influence anyone by discussing it. But we don't know what the situation is. So deep divisions will be there between Germany and U.S. and so on. And our foreign minister is there. So if he will handle it effectively maybe he will discuss it only in the groups or he will hold discussions with these countries separately we don't know yet. Because today the foreign minister was busy with the Quad meeting. Four countries, US, India, US, India, Japan and Australia. And so the Quad meeting was being held in Delhi. This is an important issue on which Quad could have taken initiative. So all this are possible. Domestic, of course, people are saying that this is being designed in such a way that it's supposed to suit India's candidature, India's elections in 2024. But Mr. Mohan may not have any concern about that. In the latest elections in the northeast he has already won hands down. So there does not seem to be any challenge to his leadership. But he would certainly have left to himself would like to see peace prevailing. And the Chinese are difficult customers for us. So we don't want to somehow or the other get involved in this in order to have a good conference. But that's not enough. If this conference is ended something else will start. And therefore it's a difficult time that the foreign minister is going through. Yes, not with neighboring countries. Of course, SARC itself has a lot of agenda items relating to the drug names, etc. But it's not just being an agenda item. It's the possibility of a solution of the issue. And most people, most observers do not believe that the important should be decided in this meeting because of these very many. That I have had lots of exciting times, very enjoyable times at all in 37 years I served the government of India. There were certainly disappointments and tough fights and hard negotiations. And you are not able to hold on to something that is absolutely clear. So all these issues will come. But as far as I'm concerned, I had two big challenges. One was the military coup in Fiji. And I have told that to many of you about that. And that was many years ago, more than 25 years ago. Things have changed. I have been going back there, back there in 2016 and 2017. The leader of the coup was very, he is now the prime minister. It was very nice to me and it was very helpful. Many, many friends were long lost. That is not hard to tell us. So that is where we are. There are many challenges. And the second challenge was because in Kenya we had a problem of a physical attack. But there are already many interesting experiences in many places. Washington, Tokyo, New York, in Thimpu. So there are so many of it. I have written a book. I'm sure many of you may have seen it. So this makes you cannot say that everything is so pleasant and so beautiful. But everything was important. Because whatever you do in the Foreign Service is very important for our country. And only if you do that, you will be able to make a name for yourself. Well, we are always participating in that framing, but not directly or firsthand. We only contribute understanding, contribute position papers, understand the mode of the country that you are serving in and generally help the government to take these decisions. As I was concerned, I was mostly in the United Nations post where we always had something to do in the frame of the security policy. I was on the National Security Advisory Board also after I retired from the service. So in many ways we have contributed to policy, but we will not be able to identify and say, this is a policy which I did. It's not like that. You tell them the options, you tell them the pros and cons, and it's up to the government to decide to take action. So when we go to Delhi, of course we become like that and we also handle policy mentors. But generally the job of the diplomat is to basically keep them informed and take action which is necessary even if they cannot consult Delhi and explain to them what you have done and they will decide yes or no. So that's going on. Yes, whatever information we gather is passed on to people in Delhi who make new policies. Who knows? I'm going to struggle, can't tell you. But we know the situation is bad in Pakistan. We have had all kinds of problems, especially governance problems and putting in jail the leader of the opposition for years together without any sign of any hope. And the situation in the border being very tense. In all this situation, what can we do? Pakistan, of course, has been propped up by the United States in the past and now by China. And they cheated the United States by using the money which was given against them to be used against others and they used to strengthen their own terrorist outfits. And the Prime Minister of the delegation has been visiting delegations, IMF and others. I've been telling Pakistan to change its lifestyle so that they can conserve the foreign exchange and do things. But it is literally dictatorship in itself. Pakistan has always been. So they may not be able to get out of the situation very fast. But in the past for IMF support, Chinese don't seem to be worried about it. We seem to be more worried about it than China because we are next door. But there is no clarity. India certainly wants powerful and strong Pakistan. But we don't see it emerging like that. The refugee crisis comes out. We know that the Pakistanis do not have the cloud to do anything about it. So the situation remains as it was even before the Bali conference. But there are signs China is trying to bring up with a proposal and also to see whether some solution can be found as well as Pakistan. I can only speculate. I cannot tell you how Iran will react. You know the situation that Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan accesses with POT even though we have very good relations with Iran. And Iran also has many serious problems inside the country. The hijab problems and reported differences between the various power centers in Iran etc. So all these are there. And Raisina dialogue is an informal conversation and is held every year. Iran has participated in it before. But at the moment the atmosphere in Delhi is very tense because of Ukraine. So there could have been something in that dialogue video which was put out. It was a promotional video for G20. And there may have been some references there which Iran did not like. I don't know what exactly has happened. But certainly such things will have an impact on bilateral relations. But I do not know enough about it. And we have had several problems with Iran in the past also. But we have been able to resolve them. So I'm sure this will also be resolved. But complicated with the China-Russia access which might look at Iran as also a possible concrete in the so-called peace initiative of China. So that could be so many sensitive issues. And I'm sitting far away from Delhi. So I don't have even the rumors. I only have the reports. And so what I hope we have, since we have a good relationship with Iran, we will be able to maintain it whatever we can understand. Then bilateral relations with Afghanistan. But of course it is non-existent in the sense that we have not recognized Afghanistan yet. What we are doing is only to give them humanitarian assistance. So Taliban is not showing any regret over what happened. They are not revising their policy towards the women of the country. And we don't have an independent representation in Kabul. So these are all the issues which have to be dealt with. In a one stroke of a pen, you cannot stop a war or start a peace initiative. But this has gone on for years. And therefore suddenly a result may come after you have prepared and taken. What can I say except that you must be able to be balanced and controlled. And you have already done several examinations. So you shouldn't be worried about it. And don't forget that this is a competitive examination. It's not you are, you know, you are not in a vacuum. You are in a group of people who have similar backgrounds and they have studied more longer. And so various factors will come in the determination of the final results. But what you can do is to stay calm and follow developments till that morning. And put across in a delightful manner to the world. And the secret of the interview is that you should consider yourself, you know, fortunate enough to participate in this kind of discussions etc. So you get a better understanding of the issues. So people who have followed the lectures, also followed the question and answer sessions, whatever happens in a conference. But the important thing is that we are able to make people after COVID, many of us have been homebound. And therefore all these factors will come and those have to be tackled and must take care of your health. Don't allow anything to slip and try and do what you can and bring glory to yourself and to our country. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. We have all great respect for Prime Minister Modi. We would not like others like the BBC or the Berg or Soros or anybody else to criticize him or his credibility. Because whatever he may be doing, there is a very important angle to India's own rising, India's own developing its own capacity and so on. And so individual people or individual, you know, institutions hold this view, it is unfortunate. And I'm sure Prime Minister Modi will take necessary action to respond to these questions and challenges. And he has been speaking out also openly in this that he should be part of this solution and everybody has to cooperate and then prepare a world order. That's what he's trying to do. In the process, he had got closer to Russia, but he thought this is a might, even though he would like to leave that grip and try and support the United States. Okay, then have a pleasant evening and please follow the discussions today. The idea was to sum up, wrap up the world which we discussed for now 100 weeks. It's always fascinating to talk about international relations, but understanding it minute to minute is not an easy job to do. And that is what we are supposed to be doing with the products. And so we will continue to do our best.