 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour on a very special Power Trading Hour. We're off 90 points on the S&P cash and it doesn't really matter what the market's doing as long as you're here at the right in a pointed time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Yeah, we have a real groaner today. I know it, I knew it was going in, but I loved it so much. Anyway, so let's take a look at it. What is going on with the sit-rap? I think there's one thing that really is a roiling of the markets and that's the last 24 hours. And that is the boys are back in town. Yeah, thin Lizzie. What is that, 1975-ish? Anyway, too bad we can't even play a second of that wonderful song. But the boys are back in town. Those boys are the Bond Vigilantes. They have no part of the big spinning bill. And of course, everything is kind of like something else in the market before, but not exactly the same thing. We brought up very early in the year, some major breaks as we watched the bond market. Well, we've got the Bond Vigilantes selling left and right. When we look at the TLT today, we broke through the level, which is about 146, which is really where they had 145.50, which is what really needed to hold, trading at 144.70 on the TLT. And of course, that's the 10, 20 year bonds. It gives you a good feel in there. But if anybody's gonna do anything big other than buy something that they pay off in six months, that's gonna affect everything. Of course, they could drive the rates up so that the government starts having digging itself a hole. And can the Treasury kind of push on the other side? Yeah, but they're trying to take care of other problems. I always remember a great line from Goodfellas where the protagonist, that's the guy that is the main guy in a movie if you live in Lutz. Mr. Protagonist is walking around talking to everybody, breaking down the fourth wall in the movie. He says, it's not like that. Where you see in the movies where people come up to you and you get in a fight, they come up to you with smiles. They're not gonna let you know they're getting a whack ya. And it's kind of like that. There's nobody really threatening anything. It's not like they have a meeting out back and fly flags and have a protest. The bond vigilantes vote with their dollars and if they start getting nervous, they start letting the bonds fly. As I said, everything's kind of like something before the market, probably most like, I'm gonna say 1994 to 1999-ish. And that is when the bond vigilantes were probably the most feared bunch on Wall Street. Most people that trade equities, we kind of look at a still lake with the equities and we think, hey, there's a lot of action going on here. But you never really know how deep the pond is. Well, it's 10 times worse in the bond market because it's 10 times, almost 12 times bigger now. And in fact, the chief strategist for the war room in the Clinton years always said, you know, if he comes back, he thought he'd like to come back as Babe Ruth or some other 400 hit in person or the best running back in the NFL or a lot of stuff. But he said, now he says, if I come back, I want to be the bond market. You can intimidate anybody, including presidents, speakers of the House and Senate, literally the Fed, there's only one thing you can do. And that's go after the bond market. Well, they're after it. And they're not gonna stop, I think, until there's probably a much reduced bill coming out of the House. And of course, we get some kind of a debt limit extension. I purposely turned the TV off and just watched the charts today rather quietly. My guess is that there will be no respite before the end of the day. If we don't have a speaker of the House come out and say, you know what, maybe next year, we'll have to think about it a little bit farther. I think they're gonna keep going at it. So watch that TLT real close. 145.50 is really kind of where you wanna see this come back up if we're expecting a bounce. Doesn't mean we have to go lower in the equities, but I do think that a lot of people around this area start getting scared because really, if you look at this as a break for the day, this takes the TLT back to 138. And possibly what I've been thinking about a long term is back down to 132. So let's keep an eye on it, but I don't think there's a lot that the equity market can do. It is the tail on the dog, not the dog on the tail. And it is the most important thing. Now, if you're talking about stocks that could possibly bounce once we find a low, generally the best of these are tech stocks because they can find a lot of people that'll throw money at the problem. We're big industrial stocks where it takes huge amounts of money to get a more probable, but less margin-y kind of return tends to be the ones that are it. As I said yesterday, Intel spending $18 billion on a new facility that's gonna take at least 24 months to start producing. They are gonna hate that. What they're gonna like is lots of people throwing $18 billion at a company on a secondary or something else where that money is not borrowed, but part of the equity. Anyway, as far as I can tell, I don't see any low out here short of a big announcement, which I do not suspect happens today. Give me a call today, 877-927-6648. And I've got a couple of stocks that everybody's asking me about. I'll probably write about them for my newsletter. So I'm gonna avoid those today. And since all of them are about two stocks that I'm gonna have out in the newsletter, I'll probably just put out an update before the end of the day or first thing in the morning. I don't see any reason to, and I'll go back to another early 70s reference to seeing Billy don't be a hero. I don't see any reason for jumping in front of this freight train before the end of the day. We'll be back like a bad rash after this time out. Are you grinding in the market, but seeing little to no return, or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find the path of least resistance. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. And the first question of the day is from Hector. Yeah, Coddapiller's up a little bit here. Of course, a lot of people thinking it's that there's not a lot of volume. A lot of people thinking there's going to be some kind of bricks and shovel thing come out of Congress. When I've read the inside the Beltway guys about what's inside it, there aren't a lot of bridges or anything else. It tends to be a lot of the stuff that we saw pretty much in 2009, 2010. It's not a lot of jobs. A lot of people are going to talk about it. They're calling it human infrastructure, which means that it's not actual in infrastructure, which means that it's just money that we might as well toss out of a plane, at least in my opinion. So no, I'm thinking, yeah, there's a little bit of that coming in. So maybe there's that, but I'm not exactly sure what you're thinking about on Coddapiller, but you just filled the gap on very, very light volume. I would be very worried about it. When we go back to the, go back to the, oh, yeah, the S&P. Had a question about double repo patterns. Normally you're going up in these, but this is generally what you have happen, and that is they just gap right through to the downside. You got all the volume in the world right now. We'll have to see, but it looks like we're going to be at least maybe a couple of billion shares higher today on the S&P cash. And while we didn't have the kind of volume we had before, that was the bond market was holding up fairly well. Now we've got the rats jumping off both ships, equities and bonds. And that's the kind of thing that a market really can't handle. Again, 12 times as far as dollars, the equity market is the bond market. And if you can't get a bond market going, you've got a lot of problems. So keep an eye on that. In fact, that's what I'm watching more than anything. As far as total volume, we're already doing about 8.2 billion shares on the CBOE. So that's going to be a big day. Let's see if I went back and looked at it. Yeah, I'll think about it. Other things, a lot of people are asking me about stocks that I'll put in a update for my subscribers. I'll stay away from the ones that I cover and put them in the newsletter. But yeah, I don't think that there's anything worth going after today. Some people thinking that maybe they buy tonight and hope that it opens up tomorrow after an announcement that makes everybody a little bit happier, but I think not. I think we're gonna get a couple of days. And of course, Thursday, probably the real big respite with Fed normally coming in with cash either early morning or the afternoon on Thursdays continuing, I don't see any chance that that's now that the markets are headed down and the bond markets are headed down. I don't think that they head out to some place to hide. I think they're gonna probably continue to be rather and quite active. Anyway, we'll look at some other ones. We were talking about the SMHs yesterday about being problematic. This would have been your target to sell instantly if you're a trader. And that was anything below that three by three. This is kind of more the pattern you get. We'll look at the nine day. And you can see, you know, they're both kind of in that same kind of vein. I just like the three by three because it gives you a little bit more of a heads up and what you're looking for in the next few days. Not only did you not want the SMHs to go down, they kind of had to stay up to not break that. But you've got, what, 20 days above, you had one, two, three, four days below, three days above, and then that's it. But you should really keep an eye on this pattern, whether it's used on the nine day. It's a loose description or it's probably the best description of a market that's ready to fall. And that is, or an ETF, or even an individual stock. But I really like this, if you get into an ETF or the market in total. And that is this thing. Anyway, you can see the volume in this one already. We've got what, 3.8 million shares already compared to 3.9 million shares back on the 20th when we gap down. So this is the second gap down, although we filled the first one. That's another reason why I would think that we have a good chance of yet another gap down tomorrow or the next day. And once we get that in and the volume dries up, I think we could make a low in this market. I'm not looking for the end of the world. And never really am. Like I said, I think we've got one more day and it may be tomorrow, maybe we just go sideways tomorrow, maybe we gap down on Thursday, the Fed cash comes in, maybe everybody figures out a way to sing kumbaya, give up on the big spinning. But the Bon Vigilantes, like they say, they can intimidate anybody. And I mean anybody because I'll guarantee you the phone calls are flying in Washington, DC, not only on those 401ks, but the big boys who are looking at paying more for money and never liked to. Okay, what else do we have? Temporary bottoms, maybe. Generally, they get retested. Just depends on how long. Okay, what else do we have out here? We had some stocks kind of blow out earlier in the day. Question from Ron about Twitter. T-W-T-R. T-W-T-R, I'll put it on here. Yeah, you're just in a bigger trading range here. I don't think there's a lot of good coming out of social media in the near future. I'll look at Facebook next. You're down below it, but yeah, I don't think, until you get down to 5848, I don't think that there's a lot of reasons to think about Twitter. If it doesn't do that, then with lighter volume, then I would say that they're in a whole lot there. Let's take a quick look at Fascist Book. Not a real bounce in this at all. Again, they've got a lot of things going against them in the near future. I wrote about it in the Tech Insider on Friday. I don't think there's a whole lot going on here. The same hasn't been able to break back above three by three since it rolled over. Not as much volume as you would think. My guess is we still have a bit farther to go. Like I said, maybe a couple more days. We'll be back in a minute. Fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex Predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Yes, there he repeated. On this day in 1997, that is a date in the past. The first crazy ones ad runs, and of course, this is just a week after Steve Jobs is installed as the CEO once again of Apple. Steve was, he didn't say it a lot, but he did say it a little bit, and that is that he steals from the best. The ad was really based on a quote from George Bernard Shaw, the reasonable man adapts himself to the world, the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man, and it is widely thought, at least in my brain, which is the only one that counts, that this is what was given to the ad company to run one week after he became the CEO. And the ad came out, and I can't play it because there's some music behind it, but here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in a square hole, the ones who see things differently. They're not fond of rules. They have no respect for the status quo. You can't quote them, disagree with them, glorify them or vilify them, but the only things you can do is ignore them. But the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change things. They push the human race forward, and why some may see them as the crazy ones. We see genius because the people are crazy enough to think they can change the world or the ones who do. And of course, I talked a week ago during their show, Dog and Pony Show, about how much Steve Jobs spent in researching propaganda, advertising and marketing. He certainly wasn't the opposite side of the coin, which was the Microsoft kind of version of life. He was a bomb thrower. Microsoft was going to be an instrumentalist or incrementalist. But it really put everybody on notice that he was back. It really takes six more years before he could turn the corner. A lot of that was selling the company that he had, which was called Next, which is really just a version of Linux with a better graphic interface. And so kind of the Macintosh is really still based on that, what, 25 years later. But so pretty good. Good operating system. Much more what I would like to have than Windows. There were a lot of reasons why Windows and Microsoft ended up with what they had. It mostly had to do with the processor that wasn't good at multitasking. Through Herculean effort, Microsoft has been able to make that model work. But it's been tougher. Anyway, on this day, probably the second most thought of ad in the advertiser kind of folks in that it defined a company going forward. I think the one thing is you haven't ever seen an ad like that in the last 12 years from Apple. I don't think you're going to see the same thing. They call it the vision thing in technology. But like I said, CFOs, not big on that. You need a Captain Kirk for every Spock. And all you got there at Apple now is the Spock, not a dumb guy, just not one that's willing to take chances at risk and really define an all out mission. More kind of a Microsoft model on that. Did I discuss window dressing yet? No, I did not. And is this just another sector rotation event? No. If Powell is not reappointed as Fedcher, does the market crash? No. An unkind word for Elizabeth Warren, and it doesn't have anything to do with her heritage, but her lineage is squealing negatively about him. So what can we say? I don't think it really matters on the Fed. They're going to do the same thing. These guys are all in the same club. I don't think it's as big a problem as everybody may be thinking it is. But I do think that if you had an idea that they were going to tighten, anybody that replaces them was going to probably be less interested in tightening. But yeah, the bond vigilantes are going to take care of anybody that does that. And if you can think of anything, even Greenspan, who was much more thought of highly in the 90s, could not fight off the bond vigilantes. When those guys get to selling, that's some real selling. Oh, I love it. A spirit agnew quote, you don't get many of those every day. The nattering naebobs of negativism. So now I think that what we'll see here is the same thing we saw in the 90s and that is capitulation from the government officials who want to spend a lot of cash. And the people in the markets who ain't going to let them. We'll find out who actually is bigger. The question is not when, or not if, but when the house probably gives up an ID and maybe end up with something like $500 billion for a spending bill instead of $1.7 trillion or $3.5 trillion or really what it is, which is about $5.5 trillion when you really figure all the other ones they've already done up. So no, don't think it has anything to do with other than that. I have a pretty simple view going forward and it is that of the 1990s. And that is we have a lot of potential growth. We've got a lot of cash in the markets. The only thing that could kill it would be lots of government spending now. And that's really kind of what drove the highs into 2000. The tax change really blew up the market. Maybe we get the same kind of thing going in the future. But I don't see a lot of talk about raising taxes, getting a lot of traction between now and the next midterms. But that's just my overall view. Anyway, we've got some other things. I think that answers the question for you. I won't put his name out there. He's a nice guy. Everybody's probably a little tense today. You just don't do that. Okay, what else? So if we found the lows, don't think so. Maybe getting a little bounce here now, but my guess is that we see selling into the close. And maybe we get one more retest tomorrow or Thursday. And then that would be it. But I don't see any reason to be a hero today. We'll be back in a minute. We'll start going through a lot more of these markets. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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It seems like if you're involved in a criminal act, you have to laugh hysterically. I wonder if that actually happens in real life. Probably not. But I did have that out there. Anyway, we're off at 78 points. Maybe a little bit of bounce here. I would watch for the last 30 minutes. I don't think much is going to happen. As far as I got a couple more questions coming in about fund buying and what I would say, window dressing will start. I don't think if I was a, just put your feet in of being a fund manager. Do you want these bond guys selling everything off? You're going to wait until the last day possible. You've got the last two or three days of the month to the first three days of the month. It's actually the last two days, first three days of the month. Where you're supposed to be, but you don't have to be. They're not going to send out a posse looking for you. But they tend to get upset if you don't. Be 100% invested. There's a difference between a money manager and a fund manager. Fund managers have a kind of a contract, but more of a suggestion kind of thing. More of a kind of that suggestion thing than a rule. And that is that they have to be long. But everybody pretty much knows that by the third, they better have most of their cash in because the money managers are going to hedge that position. But that gives you until next week. I don't think if I was a fund manager, would I be wanting to throw money at this market until I see what's going to happen in the house and what the bond vigilantes are doing? I think these guys generally don't get yelled at unless they decide to try to be a hero. And so they can put the price up for an hour while they're buying and it just goes back down tomorrow. They're pretty smart dudes. They're not going to wait until the sure thing is in. They don't mind paying up a bit. And of course, it doesn't matter except on individual stocks what retail traders do. I mean, there is a kind of a robin hood thing where you can take one stock that's massively shorted and get enough people on a $1 stock and drive it to 40 and drive them baddie. But the bigger market, much bigger problem than that. Yes, Humphrey Go Cart. He was the man, Whitney. Okay, what else do we have here? Oh, I had some more questions. Yeah, we got that. We got that one handle. And the other stuff that you guys are writing in here about, I'm probably going to buy. I'm just not buying now. So wait for it in the newsletters. Like I said, I'd rather buy knowing that I'm ready to turn or go higher or have some kind of big signal. We have a lot of volume here and nothing. You know, if I see the TLT change, but we got 144.71. That's not going to do much to do it. Maybe there isn't going to be a lot of movement for the end of the day. My guess is though, as soon as the market closes, if it doesn't close well, you're going to see people back on that overnight. You may have some kind of nice overnight blowout and maybe that's where it's time to buy. I just don't think that they're going to let anybody out easily now. And how many people wish they would have sold on the bounce now? I'm thinking, that's all I want to always say. Sell when you can, not when you have to, because it stays like this that if you're long, it just crushes your soul. It's soul crushing. A soul crusher. A crushing soul. Okay, so let's go ahead and look at a lot of other stuff here. We looked at the SMH's. Question about Intel. You know, it's already been hammered on, so not a big surprise. It's not going down more. I think a lot of people are still kind of thinking about them being the premier company here in the United States. It doesn't make them make money or any more money. Let me put it that way. So could they just go sideways? They could. I still wouldn't want to be in this unless it tests that 51-42 though. The energy on the way down was way too strong. Look at those two bars. 52-32 is kind of the minimum that I'd want retested out here. I actually spent a lot of time listening to the semiconductor podcast over the last few weeks, as it's been pretty good. A lot of times just has a lot of inside baseball stuff, not much that a trader could use. But they had a good analyst on who's not part of the street. He's more of an industry analyst than a street analyst. And he had some good calls on what really makes a good semiconductor company and how Taiwan's semiconductor really kind of put everybody else on the ropes. But yeah, I don't see a whole lot going on here. I still think that we are looking at some of these other companies are much better buys, but we're going to have to have something in the way of some kind of significant low. We're down 65, so we're up a bit, about 27 points off the low. But again, I think maybe we're going to see a little bit better prices in the coming days. Unless someone can tell me that they've all decided to give up in Washington on spending money. But that is my thought. Okay, what else do we have here? I want to go through. We've got a few more emails out here. GDX, what do you say? One of the things that's problematic about trading gold, even if it does nowhere, and that is if a market's going down, it's one of the easier things to sell at the very beginning of a downtrend in the market. This really hasn't popped back up to any extent. You got some decent volume out here today. Generally, the rule of thumb for me is if you do have a market that is headed down strongly, the first couple of weeks you want to stay out of gold as the index is because guess what? It's one of the easier things to sell, and people send to sell the stuff that they shouldn't first and sell the stuff they should keep. Is that right? I was saying it backwards. They tend to sell the stuff that they shouldn't sell first and then get to the stuff when it really starts to hurt that they should have sold at the beginning. And gold is generally no different on that, at least in my opinion. Yeah, you could see a little bit more weakness. But generally then, if we have an extended downturn, and I'm wrong on the direction of the market midterm or even long term, generally that's when you want to get into it. So I would just say hold your breath. Hold your breath, hold your fire, wait for the whites of their eyes. I think you can still see, if you're looking at an equity, you can still see one more dip tomorrow or Thursday. We'll be back. Every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show. Next on TFNN. As we return Rafa 70 on the S&P cash. Let's go ahead and update that just to make sure. Down 426 on the Dow. Nasdaq down 340. Got a lot of volume. I didn't like it last week when we didn't come back and retest these lows. Now we're down here again. I suspect you're probably going to see that. These enter day bounces probably don't mean a lot. A lot of market. What would you call it? Bino probably needs to be handed around a bit. The real thing that matters is the close. And that's the last 45 minutes of the day. We're going to find out what the big guys are actually thinking of doing here. And of course all night tonight I was up I think at 445 or something this morning starting to look at this and seeing if I had anything for the newsletters which I think I'm better off buying the lows instead of trying to play something that could literally change in a heartbeat depending on what somebody says. So if you're sitting in front of the market and you get don't I wouldn't I wouldn't be leaving that mouse more than a for a second because all you have to do is go to the bathroom and you can find the S&P probably up 50 or down 50 points. So it's going to be something where you're going to have to be rather committed to being there or being maybe massively wrong over the next few days. I do think that we turn the corner. I just don't know when maybe it's Friday maybe it's Monday maybe it's Thursday but you'll see a pretty big move and it'll be the end that we're looking for politically and the bond vigilantes to back off. I don't think they have the stomach to go through. Keep an eye on that TLT 2451 into the club. See you tomorrow.