 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Phenomenal slates across both the NBA and the NHL for tonight eight games in the NBA 12 in the NHL We're gonna break down both of those here today talking to Tom Vecchio Identifying where he sees value for both the NBA and NHL over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one Find his work every weekday on the daily ISO talking NBA props and DFS Tom. Welcome on in today. How you doing? I'm doing good. Yeah, it's super busy not only just today, but overall this time of year Lot of lot of tough games tonight. I would say in both NBA and NHL not in terms of It's like difficult to find but like the favorites are so clear that the lines are spot-on So it's like we can't be going to too many money lines. We can't be going to too many spreads I'll talk about that when it comes to some things in the NBA But I think it really should be an exciting slate slate tonight for both sports. Well, if the sides and toes are efficient That's why we have props and we'll talk about some player props that Tom likes for both the NBA and NHL Talk about the national TV games for both those sports as well to get you ready for a fun and viewing slate for tonight But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We broke down the NFL combine with Eric Froton of NBC Sports getting his read on some Combined prop bets that he likes at Fandall sports book based on 40 times and stuff like that Eric is live and indie right now So check that out on the covering the spread podcast feed You can also find it on Fandall TV plus in the Fandall YouTube page If you like what you hear make sure you're subscribed leave us a five star rating on Apple podcasts or Spotify Get buckets with your first bet on Fandall America's number one sports book because right now new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet That's 150 bucks if your bet wins you can bet on all your favorite NBA players and teams with quick bets live Send game parlays exclusive props and more just visit the Fandall app and shoot your shot Fandall official sports book partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money Wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt See terms at sportsbook dot Fandall comm Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or was a fandall comm slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont call 1 800 next step Or text next step to 533 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 and 8 7 8 9 777 7 over the cc pg dot org slash chat in Connecticut 1 809 with an Indiana 1805 2 2 4700 visit KS gambling health.com in Kansas 1877 770 stop in Louisiana visit md gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West, Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here as a gambling helpline ma org or call you hundred three two seven fifty fifty for 247 support in Massachusetts were called 1 8 770 open Y or text open Y in New York Tom let's kick things off by talking about the NBA two TNT games for tonight the Warriors and the Knicks and the heat and the Nuggets a couple of I believe no sweat same game Parley's available for those over at Fandall sportsbook Let's begin things with the Warriors and the Knicks any value you see in that game for tonight You know that starts off with Steph Curry over four and a half assists It is sitting a minus 140 which is you know could be a little bit of juice for some people But we still want to be identifying good spots and you know, he's been super consistent looking back at his game log six four five eight eight Ten five ten six assists so he's getting there and on a pretty pretty regular basis and When I'm seeing minus 140, I'm looking at this as a consistent bet This is something just to you know, I like to look at some bets like we're gonna build the bankroll here We're gonna keep things consistent We're gonna be constantly trending upwards and Curry getting there is what we should be seeing in this type of game Now the big note for this game is that Jalen Brunson's list is questionable as I said on the podcast today Jalen Brunson is the engine for the Knicks right now And when he missed their most recent game like they just looked flat because Julius Randall is still out OG and Anobia is still out. They just don't have that push on offense I'm expecting him to be back which should elevate the game environment overall Just because they're gonna have more scoring and that provides this back and forth action Which we should be seeing and Curry has been so consistent at this even with changes in their starting lineup Chris Paul coming back played Thompson going to the bench Curry's still finding a way to get there and ultimately the Knicks While they play slow they have been a little bit lackluster on defense You mentioned the consistency with Curry and I think that's a desirable thing I mentioned before He knows what same game partly available for the TNT games and you want legs that will hit Obviously, and you want to find some correlation in there So if you kind of assume good game environment with Brunson likely playing here I did shift to plus or to minus 138 on the Curry over four and a half assists So slightly better number there now as well, but you want legs that are gonna hit and correlate well So if you assume a good game environment that benefits Steph from an assist perspective and it's also a leg that where you show value even at a Pretty decent number at minus 138 now. Yeah, I'm on board with it. Like I said, I'm I'm willing to go to some of these lines that I Based on good projections good consistency. We roll in the game environment a little bit of matchup I'm just gonna I'm gonna roll with it You know more times out of not more times than not at four and a half a relatively low number for Curry And I didn't go back to 140 so people were biting once it got to 138 So Curry over four and a half assists minus 140 for the Warriors in the next now back to minus 138 I'm just gonna close that page. So it stops updating on me on the fly as mentioned the other game For tonight is the heat and the Nuggets heat are always a kind of a tough team to figure out A player availability perspective. So anything to add to you in this game Tom Well there I'm pretty sure it's basically no player props posted as of now I think it's just bam on a bio between the two teams that has any props posted the note after last night's game for the Nuggets is that Jamal Murray is uncertain for today So right from the and the Nuggets had a super solid game last night I mean, I'm expecting yokich to fully play whether Murray plays or not to be determined So when it comes to Nuggets props since there are none posted right now, I think yokich lines are gonna be super spot-on I also think they're gonna be extremely heavily bet if we do see Murray out, but Aaron Gordon That's a player I would have my eye on if we do see him if we do see Murray out of the lineup So nothing posted as of as of yet. It's a wait-and-see for this game Do I expect a massive amount of points from this one? Probably not to rematch of the finals last year We know that he plays super slow They play solid on defense the Nuggets can also step up their defense They also defend home court well at altitude like all these things So I'm not expecting a massive outburst of scoring but Gordon can still play a solid role if Murray is out So let's assume that that Murray is out in which market would Gordon benefit most from that absence It's probably just points. Okay, you know, he does a consistent job rebounding the ball, but it would probably just be points as of now and I Don't know what the line would be posted. I have to look at like his rolling average and all those types of things But probably nothing higher than the mid-teens. Okay Somewhere around there may be pushing it to 17 But probably not too much more than that and the same thing can be said about Michael Porter, Jr If you just have if you just personally think MPJ is a better player than Gordon kind of just rolled the same thing Murray's out of lineup There's gonna be extra usage there. Okay, so dig into the Aaron Gordon points prop Maybe MPJ as well if Murray is ruled out, of course as Tom mentioned no props posted as of yet for the heat and the Nuggets We got a lot of other games across the night though Tom six other games in the NBA for tonight Where else do you see value from a player prop perspective? Let's go to the Nets hosting the Hawks the Jalen Johnson for the Atlanta Hawks over 16 and a half points that sitting up minus 120 I've spoken heavily about Jalen Johnson from a fantasy perspective this year. He's having a really really solid year Trey Young is now out of lineup for the Hawks for an extended period of time with this finger surgery and Johnson has been consistent to this point this season and now he has the chance to see an elevated role in offense because Trey Young is out As a Nets fan, I can tell you the Nets are horrible. They play absolutely no defense, but Atlanta also plays no defense So at the top I kind of mentioned that like tonight's tonight's slate is really tough when comes to sides and totals I like I would have interest in the Hawks at plus one and a half just because the Nets have been absolutely terrible But at times on this podcast I've also mentioned that the Hawks are terrible against the spread So we have these two teams that just don't play defense. They can score But when it comes to solely based on opportunity Johnson is this player to step up and I Legitimately think Johnson can push towards a double double for points and rebounds every single night So I spoke about him on the daily ISO about some prop bets I mentioned his points plus rebounds prop which is fine But I simply prefer the 16 and a half points prop because we're seeing some elevated field goal attempts with Trey Young out of lineup Right now that number is minus 122 so slightly Slightly more than what it was when you're looking for a 16 and a half minus 122 But it sounds like that's likely still a good number for you with Jalen Johnson given the game environment here for Hawks and Nets Any other player props you like across Fandall sportsbook for the NBA tonight. Yeah, just one other That's with Kevin Durant over six and a half rebounds for the Suns taken on the Rock It's big over under love to see that Durant piling up the rebounds as of late There was also an article about him yesterday the day before That like he's committing to like, you know picking up more blocks or a little bit more defense or like just tweaking his game a little bit Which you know, you want to see as a veteran player, especially with championship aspirations Just do a little bit more looking back at his game log for rebounds five eleven six six eleven ten eight ten So he's getting there almost every single night and if he's you know getting there to five or six That's obviously super close. Hopefully a back-and-forth game will take down the high over under But if he's not getting there, he's pushing past it. He's never falling like way way below it So again kind of with the curry thing like we're getting like a high level of consistency also with pretty high upside So him getting to ten rebounds like is in a shock especially with this like kind of new mindset that he's bringing to the game Which I love to see now as you mentioned the number four Durant is at over six and a half minus one fifteen given the Volatility in his recent game logs. Did you consider alt markets with Durant? Or do you think this is just the best way to go given that altered mentality that Durant seems to have right now? I would take it to eight. I probably wouldn't take it to ten. Okay. I think like plus one forty five That's fair, but ten what what it was ten if you can Jump to that. He is plus three fifty for ten plus. Yeah, that's that's probably a bit too much Yeah, twenty two point two percent implied odds there, right? I would I would take eight I would do a unit on Durant and then like a unit on six and a half and then like I know half unit on eight plus Okay, so the eight plus as you mentioned is plus one forty five the baseline market for Durant six and a half is minus one Fifteen for tonight that is the Suns versus the Rockets. Let's talk some NHL now for tonight Tom huge 12 game slay one of which came as an ESPN Might be a bloodbath who got the avalanche and the Blackhawks on ESPN for tonight. Let's begin with that game Anything stand out to you for that one? Like you said, this game is a pretty lopsided when a road team is minus three fifteen So you can't bet I mean I wouldn't bet them on the money line You can't even bet them the 60-minute line to win in regulation In theory the only spot to go would be their puck line a minus one and a half Seeing a minus 125 because if they're this heavy of favorites, they should be Scoring a ton. I have no interest in any of these numbers. Do I expect the avalanche to win? Yes Do I want to be going there? No, do I want to go into a player prop? Yes, and that is for Not Nathan McKinnon won't normally go to I'm going to his line mate Miko Ranton in for over three and a half shots on goal Seeing a minus 114 or was just a little while ago as I've continuously said about the Blackhawks Whether we're looking at them from a two-week sample size a month sample size the entire season sample size They're constantly sitting in the bottom five or bottom seven a league for total shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes in 5v5 Situations Ranton is on the first forward line alongside McKinnon and the first power play He plays a great role in the first power play opposite McKinnon so he's often left with a lot of space because Just the way they move things on the power play goes from a cannon to kill McCarre the defender at the top Point back to McKinnon to McCarre and Ranton has opened one timer So he is routinely left with a lot of space and time. He's a high-volume shooter and it's Chicago. I will take great offenses against Chicago time and time again When you're looking at a mismatch like this where one team is very obviously Better than the other to get here with the avalanche in the Blackhawks Do you consider do you give more consideration to the more aggressive markets? Like this is a Process-based market the shop Bob Goal scoring props and stuff like that. Those are the more volatile ones Correct Do you give more thought to those when it is a mismatch like this or do you just want the raw shot volume? You're not leaving yourself subject to the results once the puck leaves the stick I think it depends on how you want to play it and honestly comes down to individual like your Ability to take on risk because an individual better like what's your openness to risk? So if you look at the goal mark the goal score market McKinnon's at minus 130 Ranton in is at minus 110 which is insane for For a goal market the only way to play it in my mind would be because of this mismatch And there's obviously a high upside for both of them It would be for two plus goals at like a quarter unit Yeah, because that's the only way to actually take advantage of this insane mismatch as minus 315 road favorites Combined with a bad defense combined with McKinnon who's one of the favorites to win the MVP So him putting up multiple points is probably gonna happen tonight and the points market is not yet posted So I look at the Ranton in two plus goals It's five to one like you're not even getting that big of a discounting going to the more aggressive market Right, so that's why you have that's the only way to play it. You would have to play it at a super Super low quarter unit tenth of a unit whatever you want to do just because you're it's just so crazy that they're this heavy favorites with The goal odds being at minus 110 for me personally I'm taking the over three and half shots minus one 14 versus the goal at minus 110 or the two plus goals at five to one For Ranton and that is for the avalanche and the black Hawks on ESPN for tonight 11 other games across the slate Looking at money lines totals puck lines. Where else is seeing value there tonight? So this is as I said also a very very tough slate if you just scroll through quickly like there are Outside of like some of these really close games like wild predators. That's literally both minus 110. We can't be betting that We have Boston Vegas super close. Caroline is a super heavy road favor We can't be going to any of these games same thing with the Panthers the the spot I think offers the most value is with Tampa Bay at home Not their money line, but the 60 minute line to win in regulation and minus 110 so They are favorites at home, which we will take that as obviously facts just against the Sabres minus 160 is a little bit too much to lay if it was minus 150 or minus 140 I would play the money line for Tampa and minus 140 I wouldn't play at minus 160 just because a little bit inconsistency But the three-way money line offers the most value against the Sabres team who is better in defense this year as I mentioned at the beginning of the Season, but their offense is actually significantly worse, which is a bit of a surprise to me So Tampa can still score at the best in the league. Their defense has been lackluster, but against the an offense That is I guess decreased from last year the 60 minute line presents a combination of value and probability in my mind Okay, so that is the Tampa Bay money line and minus 110 as Tom mentioned They that's sorry the 60 minute money line minus 110 Do check out the baseline money line though because as Tom mentioned There are some situations in which he could see value in that number if it were not minus 164 So check out that number before you decide to bet it But then if it's round minus 164 as it is right now at Vandalsports But that's where Tom turns to the 60 minute money line, which is minus 110 for them To beat the Sabres in regulation. Let's talk some player props. Where else seeing value for tonight? As I said, so many of these games are lopsided Which means that first if you look at any of these games that are super heavy favorites Their goal the players for goals are the same thing as we see the avalanche where we don't want to be going to minus 110 We don't even want to be going to plus 110 for some of these players so going to Player they spoke about just a week week and a half go Austin Matthews for the Toronto Maple Leafs Over four and a half shots on goal sending a minus 102 going up against the Arizona coyotes coyotes are on a 13 game losing streak Coyotes started off the year strong That is absolutely changed Matthews is as we know an extremely high-volume shooter. He can put up goals with the best of them if you look at his goal odds quickly They're sitting at sort of minus one Minus 120 minus 130 minus 130 same situation as we saw with the abs We're not for a hat trick He's been known to do it However, when we look to Matthews obviously his shots are immense and this is actually one of the spots that I would look to ladder Matthews looking back at his most recent game against Vegas Two shots there for against Colorado six against Vegas for against Arizona just last week But he is routinely a player that can push to six seven eight shots So four and a half is obviously the most consistent, but seeing six plus is not a shock out of Matthews And especially if he's you know with all these goals So I would play a full unit on four and a half half unit on six Corner unit on seven plus because it is a very realistic outcome for Matthews Those numbers for Matthews the baseline market four and a half is minus 102 The six plus shot market is plus 185 the seven plus shots is plus 370 right now If annual sportsbook and just checking out a curiosity eight plus is the seven to one So I Tom omitted that one. I probably would do, you know, not knowing a lot But I think I would go with just the three at a time alluded to there Is the MVP a big enough motivator to is that kind of helps spur? This outburst of these hacks it feels like ever since you talked about him to win the heart It seems like he's just gone bananas Yeah, I mean, that's a good question. Like what is his his motivation factor? Obviously, there's Maybe let's have a lot of storylines always going on because they're an immense market There's a ton of pressure for them to win They constantly get to the playoffs, but they can't push past the second round I mean last year they got past the second round for the first time in whatever was 20 years So it's just an immense amount of pressure and he's won the MVP before Two years ago three years ago whenever was so like he's done it before but doing it with 70 plus I think is a different level So the extra motivation factor I think does play a part And they have a chance and they're like not that but not too too far ahead in the standing So they actually do need to continue to win So is the motor is the MVP motivation factor? I would say yes, but you can't bet him to win MVP It's just like a goal by goal base or day by day basis for multiple goals because minus 130 for a goal is Not something I'm doing. Yeah, and he's been on a prolific clip right now So but if you take the shot props, you're not subject to the variance of whether or not the shot goes in So Matthews over four enough fashion four now shots minus one oh two six plus shots plus one eighty five Seven plus shots plus three seventy a ladder situation for Tom to take advantage of the fact that Matthews is on a heater from a volume Perspective right now. That is Tom Vecchio Make sure you check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio One if you want some more thoughts on the NBA for tonight check out the Daily ISO by searching for a fan dual research podcast Get that every weekday there and on fan dual TV plus Tom I appreciate the time as always enjoy a fun slave for both for tonight. We'll talk to you once again soon Yep, thanks for having me. All right fine Tom on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can check me out on threads at Jim dots on us and find a fan dual research on Twitter at Fan dual research back once again tomorrow talk. It's me P. L. Dawson cast and some NASCAR in Las Vegas We'll talk to you all you that this has been covering this spread right here on the fan dual podcast network