 Hello and a warm welcome to NewsClick, I'm your host Neelu Vyas and this week on Point of View we talk about Battleground Manipur. The 60-member assembly goes to polls in two phases on Feb 28th and March 5th. It's a high stakes battle in this northeastern state with BJP ruling for the last five years. Question being, can it return to power for the second straight term? For Congress, which has formed an alliance called Progressive Secular Alliance of six parties including the left, it's a do or die battle. In 2017, Congress emerged as a single largest party but could not form the government. There were a string of desertions and Congress was left high and dry. Which way will the voters swing? What are the issues resonating this year? What about the divide between the hills and the valleys? All this and much more on the panel discussion. Joining me today is Congress leader Ningam Bam Bupenda Meti. Welcome Ningam Bam on NewsClick. And also joining on the panel discussion is Pao Jail Chauba who is the executive editor of the Frontier Manipur. I welcome you also on the program. I would like to begin the discussion today with Bupenda because lot of questions are being asked whether how comfortable Congress really is in this election? Because the last time your party emerged as a single largest party but still you couldn't form the government. So how prepared are you? Are you in a position to say that Congress is better prepared this time as compared to in 2017? Yes, we are far better prepared this time because if you compare between the Congress and BJP, if BJP is voted back to power then Armed Forces Special Power Act is going to remain in Manipur. But if Congress comes back which we are extremely hoping for then Armed Forces Special Power Act will be lifted up will be removed entirely from the state of Manipur. You see nowhere in our country ever any of our Congress Prime Minister did ever say that they will give two crores of job every year to the youth and it did not happen. But in case of our own Prime Minister, Sri Narendra Modi, what is happening? He has already promised two crores of job to the youths every year. There is no job. Similarly here in Manipur, the Chief Minister of Manipur, BJP Chief Minister of Manipur has promised 1.5 lakhs of employment every year. So in the whole of five years they are supposed to give 7.5 lakhs of employment but there is no employment at all. Even Manipur Civil Services exam was never conducted in the five years of BJP's misrule in Manipur. That is why Congress is calling this is nothing but not only the Congress, the people of Manipur are calling this era as a darkness. Are you trying to tell me that if BJP has not done it then has Congress provided a concrete roadmap to the people? Are you confident that if whatever you are projecting before the people of Manipur are going to vote for Congress? Yes, see when Prime Minister came, Prime Minister came a few days ago, Home Minister was also here, Defense Minister was here, Finance Minister was here, all the ministers were here except the Cabinet Foreign Minister was not here, except him. Now what is happening? See when Priyanka came here, what did she see? She was talking about 33% of women reservation in all the government position, government jobs in our state. We are also putting that in our own manifesto. If we are talking about the youths, those who are yet to get the jobs, those who are yet to get placement in the government sectors and for those who are yet to get meaning the unemployed youth, we will give them the allowance to the unemployed. And even we are setting, we are going to set up staff selection commission to recruit group C and D services. So this is happening for the first time. Now for women, for farmers to increase their productivity from single croppers to double croppers even to triple croppers in a year, we are also going to update the educational facilities in our state. Not only that, the emotive issues of the protection for our entire indigenous population of our state, and there are so many other issues with our company, the development of our state. There has been no inclusive development in the state so far. Once the Congress comes back, mind you this time, see what happens? The people of Manipur gave its mandate to the Congress in 2017. Somehow they abused Ras Bhavan, that's how the government was formed. At the end, the Supreme Court has to strike, has to strike down one minister, strip the ministerial power from one fellow and he got this verified later. That is why now. Indeed, I mean the entire world saw, the entire world saw how the government, no, the entire world saw how the government was formed in Manipur. But I want to come to Chauba now that, what is the general perception in Manipur? Because with whomever I have been talking, they are saying that somehow BJP will form the, they are comfortably placed in Manipur. So, what Ningambam is saying that no people will vote for Congress, which way do you see the wind blowing in Manipur? There is some speculation that I think every political party will have on how many numbers they will have. In Manipur, as you pointed out, in the last 2017 elections, Congress got 28 and the BJP got 21. So, this time when even the MPP, Congress president has joined the BJP Ben Wagon. And of course, there are many others who have also joined, shifted over to the BJP. Now, they are filling all 60 assembly constituencies and our political scenario is in such a way that we also go to where the wind blows from the center. So, if someone is holding power in the center, Manipur definitely follows suit. So, when BJP is there, in Manipur, there was no BJP government, but in 2017 they came. Now, this time they are, as you have said, very well and comfortably placed and with some hidden alliances, which might be there after the vote because BJP was not going to get the magic number. It will be a hung assembly. But of course, they will be coming out with numbers, which will be more than like we are speculating around 2021. So, with some or perhaps more, but around these areas. So, I think they will more or less be comfortable in like going into an alliance with some other smaller party like this time. But Paujal, another factor which has been really a hallmark of Manipur politics is the instability, the political volatility which we see because of so many desertions happening, people not sticking to their party, then ultimately people taking oath that okay, they will not lead the party. How potential is that factor in this election and will it really resonate amongst the electorate of Manipur? See, I feel that we have yet to grasp what quality politics is in Manipur. It's just like what we see, more money and muscle power flowing around and the electorate also has this very poor sense of judgment when it comes to selecting the right candidate, but rather it all goes on money and muscle power or whatever, I mean like very unfair means. So, if we have quality politicians, then of course these are the people who are not very well off, who don't have very good, who doesn't have very deep pockets. So, the person who comes to the forefront in our Manipur elections are the ones who are like contractors, and some sort of people who have got wealthy from very ill means, unjustified means, and a lot of black money. So, we can at least place the question on is there really quality politics in Manipur and the quality candidates in the first place. But do you think BJP has been able to bring that difference in the politics or maybe in the political landscape of Manipur, what you're talking about the clean politics, where people believe in the parties, where people believe in the political system, has BJP really made a difference in the last five years? What's your honest assessment? I feel that it's a changing sifting sense of Manipur politics, I mean Congress was there for the last 15 years, and during that time we saw 1528 fact encounters and a lot of other issues including burning pockets, but since 2017 after the BJP took over, there has been no freedom of speech in Manipur. People have been arrested left, right, and center just for putting out simple posts on social media. And on top of that, whatever mandate the election manifesto they had in 2017, the BJP, they have removed all of that in 2022. This time, there is no upspot, no anti-corruption, no drugs, nothing, but back then they were saying we'll remove corruption, we'll do this, we'll be there to uphold the freedom of speech. Now what happens is people are getting so annoyed also with the BJP government that it's not, that's not been fair, they have not promised, kept their promise, of course this very much I mean illogical to think that the politicians will keep their word, but nevertheless when they have a policy at least they should adhere to at least a bit of it. Now they were saying that they'll remove upspot, as Bhupen had pointed out, now where is that in the manifesto? Nothing. Now they're saying that we don't need upspot because it's now the law and order is fine. So I believe that BJP has not been able to make much of a headway in Manipur either, in this term. Right, but as you pointed out, and I'll come to Bhupenda on this bit, as Chaubal is saying that there were no economic blockades, there were no encounters, what we really saw during the Congress's regime, but the way the BJP government is criticized is that they've curved the freedom of expression, they've mounted cases of wapa against people. So do you think that the Congress is narrative and the way you have building the campaign, is it really correct? Because if you have to resonate amongst the people, then you have to ring the right bells. Is the Congress really ringing the right bells in Manipur right now? Because what you're saying about unemployment, what you're saying about other issues, it's not Manipur specific. You find those problems in every state. Uttar Pradesh is also going to polls and the same problem exists in Uttar Pradesh as well. So my question to you is that is Congress really ticking the right box when it comes to campaign and building the narrative? Well, we are rightly resonating with the people's sentiments and the voices, the inner voices, in fact. What we did, we lifted armed forces special power by detaining disturb areas in seven assembly segments in the heart of this state. We did seven in power for the last five years. So what is with the impeachment is saying here is, look, you see what has happened in Nagaland? Nagaland assembly passed, Nagaland cabinet passed to remove, to leave up the armed forces special power from the state, but the central government reimposed it. Then that is because of this apprehension. It is better than reconciled with the center, but that is not the way that how we did. Our then-Congress Chief Minister, Bobby Singh, did. We lifted it. We lifted it up. Now we are saying we did it. We did it partially. That was our commitment. We are going to do it. The moment when Congress Chief Minister comes back, this is what we are saying. There will be no more VJP Chief Minister in Manipur. Once on March 10, after March 10, we will have a Congress Chief Minister in the first cabinet. We are going to have a decision on that. But Bupenda, my question is that supposing if a similar scenario like 2017 emerges this year as well, where you are the single largest party, but you're not able to form the government, are you prepared for that possibility? A similar thing happened in Goa, a similar thing happened in Manipur. My point is that do you have a plan B? Supposing you become the single largest party, but in your armory, do you have that weapon by which you will form the government? Because VJP will use its money. VJP will use its muscle power. It will use all the tactics to form the government. But do you have that tactics of that plan B? We will have a comfortable majority. But then if you see the statements- You're fully confident that you're going to have a comfortable majority? Are you fully confident? We are. We will have a Congress Chief Minister, but if you see- Okay, okay. I want to bring in- I want to say one second. If you read the statement of Assam Chief Minister Hemant Abhishek Sharma here, what did he say? He said, we don't need NPP. We don't need NPF Naga people's friends. We don't need Konrad Sangma's National People's Party. Then where will they go? If they have to be a part of the government, they have to come with us. Or who's whoever who wants to be a part to develop Manipur further, inclusively for better Manipur? Obviously Congress will sow the lich. And that is why we are saying, because our, besides our manifesto, see the contrast. Prime Minister came and spoke about palm oil transition. Pupenda, you have managed- See, your party was right with desertions. You had so many people leaving your party. Now you have barely managed- No, no, no. Let me complete my question. Let me complete my question. My question is that your party has barely managed to form a flimsy alliance of six parties, which includes the left. Now, do you think that people will be confident people still feel that Congress doesn't have numbers and you've just managed to form some alliances? No, please do not undermine the left forces here in Manipur. Manipur has been a socialist in society for ages, for decades. We have so many comrades from our left and they are going to vote for us. These are our common candidates. Now, with regard to those who wish to defect to other parties, the Supreme Court of India in his landmark judgment in K Megachandra versus Speaker of Manipur, what did they say? Now it is applicable to all the state legislation of the country as well as the parliament that all pending disqualification petitions in the Speaker, whether it is in the Lok Sabha or in the state legislator, must be decided within three months. Within three months, this came after 2017 because of our Congress that is going to the Supreme Court. That is why now on mass tenure, very difficult to defect. Who wants to get defect? Then matters will have to be decided within three months. Earlier, it took ages and ages because there was no binding in terms of the time outer limit. Now there was already given in the judgment of the Supreme Court. Okay. I just want to take a few from where you said that you are euphoric confident that Congress will have a comfortable majority and I would bring in Paojal here. Can you really counter Congress's claims where it says that they will have a comfortable majority? But I have to take Bupenda's statement with a pinch of salt. What is your assessment? See, there was a recent reaffirmation ceremony where the leader of the Congress, Mr. Okram Ibobi, along with his Congress entourage, went to all the different holy places, including the Kanglata Masjid to the churches. For what? To swear an alliance, an allegiance with the Congress government that they are not going to run towards the greener pastors, which would obviously be happening also in this present term, as we assume and as we calculate. So when the Congress are so, I mean, unsteady with their own MLAs that many of them are switching sides and many are also on the pipeline, in the pipeline. Now what the Congress government is doing is like they are not sure of themselves also. Of course, there will be wins, there will be wins, but how much of a win will there be when you say that the Congress is not sure of itself? What is it really that it's unsure of? It's not sure of the numbers, it's not sure of its MLAs sticking to their party, what is it that you, what is that unsureity angle you're trying to project as? It is the MLAs, the credibility of the ethical stance, one point is that. But as I've said, we don't have quality politicians in Manipura. And you may say that BJP and Congress are both sides of the same coin because it is now the said minister is the former Congress Emily minister who was with the Congress for 15 years. Now it is our Congress, safe with the president who's shifted to BJP. Likewise, it's just like putting that all white in a new bottom scenario. Yes, the new bottle. So that is a scenario over here in Manipura. It's like we do not have that good politicians who are going by the party standards who just stick to the party stand until we die. But just when there's a riff or something happens, people just switch over to the other side. That is the main thing. So what is the popular sentiment? Do the people of Manipura realize that if there is a particular government which is at the center, the people will have to vote for that particular party. Do by and large, the Manipuris feel like this? I believe that Manipura's political way of choosing our candidate does not necessarily go on the political parties, but rather also on the individual who's contesting. So the situation is a little bit different, but it also depends on the hills and also on the valleys. So we have got 46 in the valley, 20 in the hills. So the circumstances are a little bit different in the hills and the valleys compared as compared. But when I speak of the valley, people are also inclined with the party. Of course, there will be Congress loyalists, there will be BJP loyalists, there will be some NPP loyalists and people over there in the hills. Now, but individuals by and large stick to the candidates irrespective of the party, but the majority of the some of the constituencies will obviously want to go with the winning side with the ones who's in power at the center will be like getting much more money from the center and there will be some development because Manipur as itself, we don't want to be in the opposition side, but we want to want to be with the ruling thing. That is the basic mind frame that some people, the electorate have here in Manipura. I will tell if I may ask you that what are the real issues which are the overriding factors in this election of 2022 when it's very specific to Manipur? What are the people really looking for? Unemployment is a problem which exists in all the states. But if I may ask you, what are those overriding factors which are going to really govern the mind of the electorate in this election? What are those factors? The main thing is, as I said before, it's money money and muscle power. We have seen a lot of escalation. Are you trying to say that whichever party throws money at the people, people are going to vote for that particular party? It plays one big chunk of that money plays a major denominator and the muscle power. As I have said, we are politicians who are buying the electorate basically, in a way. So the ones who have got deep pockets, it matters. For example, we have one person from the NPP or some other party who has got very deep pockets. For example, the richest man in Manipur, so he's spending lots of money with his assembly constituency for the last so many years and it grows up and he's got everything on his side. So there's one person who doesn't have money, but who has got that particular ethics, who will be a good politician, who will make good policies. But if money is the driving factor, then who seems to have a clearer edge, Congress or BJP? Now that's a very juvenile question, I know. It's a very good question. Now let me come to that. So when the Congress came to power, they aren't a hell of money. The MLS administers over there. Now when the BJP came here, they looted that public also and the crores have gone up. Congress looted in hundreds, BJP looted in thousands. I mean, that's the inflation of Manipur in a way. So the minister got richer and the Congress, when they looted the public, they were rich also. Now they still got their money with them. Now the BJP is the one who got five years to loot the public money. They have got deep pockets now, but there are other factors, which are like from anyway, other parties who have got some money with them. They are ex-former bureaucrats who have done the same thing. They have drug lords who are in the fray. So these are the things that also matters. Like you have got some organization at your back, clubs or people who are armed. I mean, armed organizations like in the hills. There's been a lot of complaints about revenue groups getting into the fray by those, I mean, supporting one political party or an individual. So they have different dynamics in our Manipur politics, but money, as I'm saying, and the comes, with that comes obviously, power. So these are the two main factors and the violence that is going up. Now this combined makes a very disastrous recipe in our Manipur politics. It looks like a lethal cocktail almost and which is very unfortunate for the democracy. But my question to you, Bupenda, now is that according to what Pao Jail is saying, and I'm going purely by what he's saying, that Congress is no different from what BJP has been or what BJP tries to project. I mean, only the scales have differed. If you were in hundreds, BJP isn't thousands. So what is the kind of difference you are promising to the people? And why would Manipuris really get convinced of what Congress is saying? They would rather go with the center, which is BJP ruled. See, when there was a protest against citizenship amendment bill in New Delhi, what did BJP government do in the center? They sent a CBI raid at the residence of our former Japanese because they were speaking against CAV then. So you see the timing when we were about to form the government in the legislature Manipur Legislative Assembly for no confidence motion, there was a voice vote there should have been a voice on divisions. The voting should have been done on divisions. But instead of that, there was a voice vote. So see, this is a contrast. What has BJP done in the five years? They have built a palatial, beautiful, gorgeous BJP central office in Imphal. But they should have also completed our new secretariat complex in the heart of the city, joining our Manipur High Court because they have failed to do it. What is BJP trying to do? We have the only, I mean, there is only one airport in Imphal, Imphal International Airport, which is also now called as the Kendrick International Airport. Now the government, the BJP regime, what they are trying to do? They're trying to privatize it. They're trying to sell it off. So wherever BJP comes to power, they sell the properties, our public assets, our public properties. The same thing is also happening in Manipur. That is why. Now see the contrast between the BJP and Congress. Let's talk about the local democracy in the hills and in our valley. We have urban local bodies. We have municipal corporations. We have municipality elections. We also have an Autonomous District Council elections in the hills that democratizes the hills. The common people of our hills, our brothers and sisters in the hills have been given power to exercise their rights for the local administration in the hills. But what has the BJP government done? The BJP government has not even conducted an ADC elections in the hills, despite even after the completion of the tenor, the full tenor of the ADC. That's the difference. So what we are saying once Congress comes back to power, when we will have the Congress, Chief Minister. But if you're so confident, Bupinda, when you are so confident that Congress is coming back to power, who's really going to be your leader? Your leader is old, though he's very, very experienced. But as the BJP tries to project, but you know that the Congress has a very old leader, he does not have the energy to drive that kind of sentiment in Manipur. You have no other leader than Okram Ibobe Singh. Who else is there? Do you have any young leader who can be projected as a Chief Minister? Or your party is really going to bank on Okram Ibobe Singh and nobody else? We have no dirt of leaders. But the point is Okram... No, but who else? Who else is the Patron of Okram? Who else is the Patron of Okram? Who else is the Patron of Okram? Okram Ibobe Singh is also one of the tallest leaders on the Congress party in the entire country. So that's the point. Now look, see, what once on March 10, we will have our MLA's, Congress MLA's, we will have the Congress Legislative Party meeting where our Congress Legislative Party leader will be elected by the members of CLP and then we will decide an extra minister. But yes, who is Ibobe? Ibobe, to my language, I should term him as the modern architect of the developing Manipur. What we are having right now in Manipur is the results of our Ibobe Singh late Congress government in the last 15 years. We are having peace now. BJP is claiming that they have brought peace. But all those gains were lost in 2017. You are counting on the gains which you had for 15 years, but you lost those gains in 2017. But whatever you are saying is with respect to the fact that you have comfortable numbers on 10th March. I have to wind up the show. In 2002, there was Atal Bihari Bhaspai as the Prime Minister. We came to power. 2002, Congressive Minister was there in 2002. And that is why in 2004, UP Government came back. Now in 2022, we will have a Congress CM and in 2024, we will no more have Prime Minister Modi as the Prime Minister. You are sounding like a soothsayer right now. But the results will be known on 10th March. Chauhbilla, I want to conclude with your comment. BJP with BJP, a lot of people are saying that there are a lot of revulsions and churnings within the BJP about whether the fact in birin Singh becomes the Chief Minister again. How is BJP placed? Do you see any kind of factionalism as far as BJP is placed in Manipur? Very much, very much because that fight has always been there within the BJP. Because since 2017, there was a fight on who would be the Chief Minister because the billion, billion, I had just switched sides from the Congress, came to the BJP and he got the Chief Minister. But the next in command, Mr. Bishuji is also vying for that particular post of the Minister. Now this time also the BJP itself is internally a little bit polarized in the sense that once who is going to be the Chief Minister candidate for the BJP? You mean to say that because of its own internal politics, the going is not going to be very easy for BJP in Manipur? No, yeah. But you have said two different things which again prompts me to ask you another question. You said that the going is not very easy for BJP because of its internal politics and because of the money power, because of the way the MLAs are bribing the people, you say the BJP has an edge. So what am I to understand? Is BJP winning this Manipur election or Congress is going to sweep this time? What is your assessment? And with that, I'm going to close the program. In 2017, the Congress had the numbers, they couldn't do it, they can't. BJP is coming back, it will be a hung assembly this time, it will be a coalition government. That's it. Oh my God. That's the thing. Okay. So Manipur can be a hung assembly, says Paojal Chauba, who is the executive editor of the Frontier Manipur. Bupenda, you want to say something before I wind up the show? He's saying he's predicted a hung assembly for Manipur. What are you going to do? Well, I don't believe in prediction, but certainly the people of Manipur are... You predicted. There's a short while back, you made predictions and predictions. I'm saying the people of Manipur are already fed up with this double engine, which indeed has become a trouble engine today. Okay. Okay. Okay. So you say that the double engine has become a trouble engine for BJP. Well, the results will be out on 10th March. Thank you so much, both of you, Bupenda and Paojal. And we hope to see you again on 10th March with a lot of discussions. And then we'll find out whom the electorate has really voted for. Give us feedback on how you like the discussion and stay tuned for another episode of Point of View. Thank you so much. Thank you, gentlemen.