 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. I hope everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to us and to the channel, like, subscribe, share, all that good stuff so you could be notified when we upload. Again, we usually upload Monday through Wednesdays and I take Thursday and I don't have to kind of just decompress my brains. I could be ready for Friday's session. If I have something to kind of take care of during the week, then I will take that day off and then record on Thursday. But either way, three days and then another weekend update, so hopefully you guys will continue to get value. So what a crazy week. Okay, so let's go back. Okay, let's go back. The crazy thing about Wall Street is, and I've been doing this, it's next May, it's going to be 25 years from now. The craziest thing about Wall Street is when you think that when the world is about to end, okay, and nothing could be right and there's nothing that could save the market. Usually the craziest things usually come back and this is where a lot of new traders start to try to rationalize a very irrational type of market. It'll always be irrational. It doesn't make a difference how long you trade. Whatever you think makes sense, you can throw it out the window. The market does things that are absolutely irrational and the most important part is you always have to understand the statement. The market will stay irrational longer than you can stay solid and so never fight to take. That's first of all. So let's go back, right? Let's go back to March of 2020. March in 2020 was the whole lockdown pandemic thing. If you guys remember, March of 2020 was like the worst month for equities in a very, very long time and it looked like the world was over. We were on lockdown. We're faced with some crazy stuff that we never get. Think about it. We're faced with a global pandemic in our lifetime in 2020 and it was followed by just when you thought that the market was going to go to hell and that's it. This is over. Here comes the crash worse than 1927. The market followed up by its worst single month in a very, very long time. In April 2020, follow that up with the best month in a very, very long time and that's again the whole point of it doesn't need to be rational. It doesn't need to make sense. It doesn't need to make sense that the world went to a standstill for two, three weeks. Everything locked down, people dying, so forth and so on and then the market had the most incredible rally in 2020, right? So fast forward. Two weeks ago, we looked like we were about to fall off a cliff. Every level, if you've been following this broadcast, every level got confirmed on the queues. You lost a 10-day, lost a 100-day, lost a 150-day. We just came a little bit shy of the 200-day moving average and it looked like that's it. It's the end of the world. We're going to go back to 2000 and we're going to go back to the 200-day moving average and boy, oh boy, we don't want to get below it and it felt like that's it. Christmas is done. Cancel Christmas, Santa Claus is done. This is going to be the absolute worst thing that could possibly happen and this is why we played the game. In the last two weeks or so, we saw a 6% plus move down in the NASDAQ. What we saw this week was absolutely extraordinary and it mirrored what happened after the worst month in March of 2020 to the best month. So here's the staggering numbers. In case you haven't noticed or you weren't trading this week. This was the best week for equities since, well, definitely since 2023. This is the first five-day consecutive streak, winning streak since June. This is a long, long time ago. Listen to these numbers. The Dow Jones industrial average for the week was up 5%. That's its best move since October of 2022. That's pretty damn big. The S&P was up nearly 6%. And the NASDAQ composite that lost 6% in two weeks made up almost nearly 7% for the week. Just absolutely staggering numbers. Friday we had the gravy train continue to go. And one of the most bullish things that we saw on Friday despite Apple not having great earnings. A nice recovery towards the end of the day. But years ago, if Apple would have blown up, well, these were blown up, but if Apple would miss earnings or at least perceived to miss earnings, and Apple at one point on Thursday night was down what, four or five points, the NASDAQ futures would have been down the lock limit. Absolutely lock limit. And this is how you change as a trader. Many years ago, I would have been like, I just short everything on the first bounce, but it doesn't happen that way. We talked about it on the Thursday video. Can the bulls deflect and Apple's bad earnings or at least bad perceived earnings to kind of buy the dip? And boy, oh boy, we got that answer. Not only did we get that answer, we got that answer pre-market. Everything started turning green pre-market. You had Microsoft green, Amazon green, Netflix, Meta, so forth and so on. And it was like, wow, the bulls are really doing their job. And the question was going into Friday's session. If you watch the Thursday night video, can the bulls reclaim the 50-day moving average? Right? That was the big key. Because again, the 50-day moving average, you guys, especially from newer traders, the 50-day moving average is everything. It's a judge, jury and executioner for the key of a next trend for the market. The 10-day is the birth of the trade. The 50-day is the birth of the trend. And we talked about that 364s on the 50-day moving average. And the only question was, was there going to be a fight? Because usually there is a fight at the 50-day moving average, whether it's on the way down or whether it's on the way up, to see who has control. And boy, oh boy, there was no fight at all. The market went through, the queues went through, the 64s pre-market and just never looked back, absolutely never looked back. And not only did we reclaim the 50-day moving average, we are very, very close to reclaiming back the 100-day moving average of roughly the 68 areas. So very, very bullish market action. You had more jobs, labor data came out on Friday. The jobs is cooling off. They continue to cool. That's obviously more bullets for the Fed. Unemployment got an uptick. So that's never a good thing. But boy, oh boy, the market has spoken, the people have spoken, the bulls have spoken. And it really does show you guys, and this is why we talk about all the time. Nobody knows what's going to happen. I pretty much say this on a regular basis. We could plan for it. We could plan for it the same way. I would sell buys below the 50, below the 100, below the 150-day. But eventually stocks get tired. Sellers get tired. And when sellers do get tired, that's exactly what we saw today this week. We had a massive rally in the kudos to the bulls. They got back over a key level. Earnings have been generally pretty good. You saw in the last two weeks Microsoft have good earnings. Amazon have good earnings. Netflix came out with a very, very nice quarter. Names, for example, like Tesla and Tesla struggled, right? Tesla struggled ahead of back quarter. Even Tesla had a nice dead cat bounce, got rejected off the 20-day moving average. But going into this week, again, does the market need a rest? Of course. Look, I mean, listen, you've got a 6% rise, nearly 7% rise in a week. Of course, you're going to have some profit taking at some point throughout this week. But the key metric here is, and this is the whole point of understanding levels, as long as the bulls, right, guys? Even if we have a res day on Monday or even an aggressive back test, keep in mind, we're open nearly 7% of the week. Even if we have an aggressive back test in the next day or so, right, keep this in mind. The longer we build and continue to defend that 364 level on the closing basis, right, that's the 50-day moving average, the higher probability we'll start rallying and then we could get into the Thanksgiving rally. We could finally maybe get the Santa Claus rally. We could spill over into the first quarter of the January effect. So as long as the bulls, right, as long as bulls continue to defend 364 on the closing basis, risk could be put back on. And if they start losing back the 364 level and give back the 50-day moving average, right, basically right here, right, what happens is a series of sell-off as well. So kudos, right, kudos to the bulls. They did an absolute great job. And, you know, again, here we go. You know, here we go. Here's a seasonal strength in the market. So let's talk about some names, right, let's talk about some individual names, kind of where they are, where they came from, where they're going to be. Let's start off with Tesla. So Tesla, at some point, always remember, the stocks that always reverse, at least initially, are always going to be the stocks that had a flawed cattle. So for example, Tesla did not have a good quarter. And this is why you saw Tesla put an inverted hammer on Friday. But you can see here the importance levels here of Tesla here. This 230 level down the road is going to be very, very important. 230, if it starts reclaiming back this 230 level, it's going to seize back this 150-day moving average. However, okay, and this is kind of what we talk about both sides of the equation, you see this whole line here, this burgundy line. This burgundy line is, the burgundy line here is the 200-day. Okay, it did a great job reclaiming it on Friday. The key to Tesla is if it loses the 200-day moving average, and that's a pretty big if, but if it loses the 200-day moving average, then the sellers will start to take control. Look at Amazon, right? Let's look at Amazon. Amazon, it's exactly a perfect case study of what happens when stocks reclaim back the 50-day moving average, right? So here is Amazon reclaim back the 50-day moving average on earnings, right? Started to move again. Amazon, again, had a big move. Is it possible to reclaims, it comes back and back test the five-day? Yeah, that's kind of where you want to re-enter your position. Again, you don't want to chase Amazon here. Amazon has gone from 118 to 140 in five days. Again, you'd like to see a back test in the next couple of days to kind of buy it into strength. Look at a name like Microsoft. Again, another case study of what happens when stocks hold, right? You see this blue line? When they hold the five-day, that's the whole point of the bulls and the cues holding the five-day. The longer they could hold it, now going to the future, the higher probability of a run-up. Again, big, big move, just like Amazon notes, obviously needs a little bit of a rest. Apple, despite its ugly little quarter, right? The stock actually held serve, held the five-day moving average. Is it out of the woods? Not yet, but boy, oh, boy, if they could reclaim back, right? You can see this whole area here. If they could reclaim back the 50- and the 150-day moving average, this thing is going to start to rise as well. And just again, a case study of why it's so important to cover the reclaim the 50-day moving average. Let's look at the video, right? We talked about the video for the last couple of days. We had some phenomenal moves on the video over the last couple of weeks, even the last couple of months, even going back to October. You can see the first time when it reclaimed the 50-day moving average. The stock went from 440 all the way to 476 in five sessions. You can see here what happened when it lost the 50-day moving average. The stock went from 449 all the way down to 392. So Friday was the first day it reclaimed the 50-day moving average, right? That's a big, big deal. Now the key is for the Nvidia Bulls ahead of their November 21st earnings release day, the key for the Bulls are they need to keep on building, right? Keep on holding this 443 level and keep on building off the previous day's range. If it does hold and starts building above the previous day's range, again, I don't know if it's going to get to 476 ahead of earnings or even who knows what happens with earnings, but at least now you see your measured potential. So very, very big, strong move there as well. Look at a name like Metta, right? Metta as well. Look what happened three days ago when it reclaimed back the 50-day moving average, right? It's gone from 301 all the way up to almost 320. It's a big deal, guys. The 50-day moving average is an absolute big deal. So if you are a brand-new trader, especially to this channel, just write this down in a sticky pad. If you're wondering if a stock is a buy or a sell, if the stock is above the 50-day moving average, it's bullish. If the stock is below the 50-day moving average, it's bearish because it's under supply. So when you hear me talk about stocks reclaiming supply, that's what I'm talking about here. So when you look at the cues, right, we reclaim supply. So as long as we stay above supply and stay above this 364 level, and again, we don't need to go up every single day. Again, the market needs a little bit of break for us. It's just healthy. Even the biggest bulls will turn around and go, I can't buy the cues. They just went from 342 to 369 in a week. How can I possibly buy the cues? So we need an organic back test just for the market just to kind of decompress a little bit and get its feet under themselves, kind of relax a little bit and kind of have stocks kind of rest and kind of distribute for the next move up. So it's very, very important. When you look at the SPY, we'll look at the SPY, same thing. Had a massive, massive run here from 409 all the way up to 436, reclaimed the 50-day moving average. Here's the key for the spies. If the spies can get back above 438, you see this whole channel here, guys, this would be the highest level in this whole channel above the 50-day. It's above the 50-day. The key is don't give back the 433 level on the close, but the next leg up on the spies is to reclaim back this 438, which is going to be very, very important. And let's look at the IWM. The IWM was obviously the red-headed stepchild of all the indexes for the whole year. And this week, man, first of all, Friday, it had a 2.5% move, right? Did it wake up speculation money? Did it not? Again, it's not really my thing. I don't really don't trade small and mid-cap stocks, but the point is these names obviously got juiced. And again, we talked about names, maybe it falls into the sector, but we talked about names, for example, like Instacart on Friday, right? Stocks have gotten beaten down. Long time goes, Instacart put up a $2 move. That's pretty damn big. So once you start seeing the craps start waking up, and again, I'm not really saying crap and IWMs are holding partners or dancing around doing the tango together, but it's not really a coincidence when the red-headed stepchild is finally pulling up the crap stock. So again, very, very bullish action this week. Again, it really does show you that nobody knows something. Nobody knows anything. Be prepared for both sides of the market. Don't put yourself in a corner that you have to be right. I don't have to be right. Okay, I have to be prudent. I have to be an adult, but I don't need to be right. That's why we always make sure we have a plan for both sides of the market and put ourselves in the position of strength, not a position of weakness. Guys, have a great weekend. God bless. Right now, it's about 9.37 a.m. Eastern time Saturday morning. I don't know when this video is going to be released sometime this weekend, maybe Saturday night, Sunday morning, but the point is, guys, continue to study, continue to work. The point is when the bulls and the bears are there, usually you're going to have some unpredictable, irrational moves, and that's our job. Our job is not to try to figure them out. Our job is to adapt to them. Guys, God bless. Have a great weekend, and I'll see you all Monday. Take care.