 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Friday 19th of November. Hope you are doing well and in terms of the briefing Even though it's a Friday tons of stuff for me to cover of course I'll try to keep it as on-point as possible But obviously we had a really topsy-turvy day on Wall Street yesterday initial selling at the open or some hawkish fed Comments and then a flip reversal. I'll explain why that happened And we actually closed at record highs in the S&P and the NASDAQ and funny enough if you subscribe to the market maker Daily newsletter that I put out if you want to you can just find it on Amphimee.com at the bottom of the web page But I wrote that yesterday at around the open because I had some meetings for the rest of the day And I was talking about the catalysts and the reasons why it would come lower There was also some negative type political comments on the new bill bill back better bill They're trying to push in the US as well and then lo and behold I checked back in Aftermarket and we finish at a record high so Standard fair I would say as far as markets are concerned in 2021 and as you can see here from this graphic that I've got up on my Screen at the moment the S&P 500 in fact is poised for the second biggest number of all-time highs Ever in a year and as you can see here this would we'd have to go back to really the mid 90s the last time we'd seen so many record highs in just one singular Year, but we'll get into that in a moment I'm also going to talk about the latest change of a US investment bank on bringing forward their rate height expectations for the Fed That being JP Morgan. We've got COVID update We've just had a breaking headline come out Austria are going to make even more aggressive Lockdown and they're going to implement that from Monday given the outbreak that they're seeing of COVID at the moment But this is being seen now in Germany, Greece Savakia the US and Chicago the UK numbers are going back up. So we'll have a bit of a COVID update Bitcoins down for a fifth consecutive day. We're now trading in the futures market of 56,000 handle And technicians would say that we've got a little perhaps further to go In that price point and then we'll talk about US politics and then a look ahead for the day We've already had you a UK retail sales come out No real market impact on sterling albeit the numbers were just a touch better than expected came in at point eight percent month a month for October against point five expected But yeah, quick look at the charts before I go into those headline stories and the dollar is a little bit firmer this morning It's just kind of popped up a little bit as UK European players have stepped into the markets They're up around two tenths of one percent in a dollar index and that's just pushed Euro out of a really quiet phase of consolidation through much of the Main part of the Asia pack sessions a bit of a breakdown in price if we drifted down to the s1 Where a sterling perhaps? Not quite as deep in negative territory. Just given those aforementioned retail sales Maybe just providing some very short-term support. Otherwise in equity index futures The S&P NASDAQ very quiet holding on to generally a positive hand over from the US to Asia And we've just kind of sat sideways at the R1 in the futures at around this record high territory The DAX though just having a bit of rejection around the R1 and just dipping back down in quick fashion through the cash open down to pivot Oil just holding on to the gains that we've seen yesterday following some of the downside pressure that we've had Throughout recent trading sessions. So we're back to a 79 hand or at the moment Just looking here on some of the technical setup three tests on that trend line through the price recovery So and around 78 83 I'd be looking at and watching for some support and you can see psychologically finding some short-term 79 mark T notes pretty quiet as is gold. So let's get straight into some of these headlines And as I said the NASDAQ 100 Was a big outperformer yesterday the chipmaker NVIDIA actually finished up in excess of 8% They boosted their outlook Apple were up just shy of 3% They also jumped after a Bloomberg news article reported the company is pushing to accelerate Their development of the electric car Even though Apple have stumbled at every step almost in their quest in the EV market The EV boom is in vogue right now. Have we seen from Rivian and other Carmakers coming in lucid this week the recent SPAC deal have just gone meteoric in terms of their share price And so yeah, the EV space is really, you know, you just mention it and all of a sudden your stock gets a little pump So Apple were sipping somewhat of that yesterday Amazon were up a decent amount and then Macy's and Coles were up 21 and 11% each Respectively so big gains in the retailers they signal consumer demand remains robust And that's a really positive thing, of course because at the moment inflation is super high 31 year high in the US and yet consumers are still spending and that's a really a Quite opposite view of which I guess the market would come to think for some of those retail names and in an actuality Just making the the S&P chart a little bit bigger. I mean it was such a Seesaw day. It was kind of classic day. I did a tweet last night in La La Land, which is We sell off There and the reason the rationale for this initial portion of the sell-off Which if I just put a circle which is here was at the cash open and around similar timing to that yet Some comments as a New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and John Williams Whoever's the head of the New York Fed is always an influential person Williams tends to sit center ground fairly aligned with power If not leaning perhaps on the slight dovish side and he came out and basically said inflation is becoming more broad-based and Expectations for future price increases are rising Now what he's saying. I don't think he's particularly new. We've seen for the last inflation report. Yes, indeed Although there's still these kind of transitory Factors that we could account for like energy or use cars and trucks Things like shelter and other areas would degree would suggest a degree of Broadening out inflationary pressures, but it's more just the fact that he's saying it that kind of Ratifies it that the Fed are looking at it So it's a little bit of a hawkish comment from a kind of center-leaning dovish person and the market didn't like it Obviously because it kind of buys into this narrative that more market pricing aggressively for for near a rate hikes And then obviously as I mentioned You kind of had a really string of just positive news The chip makers the big tech the retailers and we just sold you it on I mean didn't take long. We reversed the entire move pretty much within two hours of the opening bell sell-off And then we've we rallied we pretty much finished at record highs here and then ages come in Bumped it up again in overnight trades. So we're right up here at these most elevated levels now and Here's back on a daily continuation chart to just tell a bit more of a story and so You can see here this top end of what was a channel now trend line here resistance the market kind of responding to that back in The early part of November So one would say if we've broken out now of that fifth of November high here looking at the S&P futures Then well next kind of upside target might not come until we get further up here another 40 points above where we are at the moment so Yeah, as aggressive as this rally is be Could there be more record highs to put us in check with some of that the tables I've been showing you for the second biggest number of all-time highs is it gunning for the mid 90s highs It sure is so let's see how it plays out. That's not to say that it's going to be plain sailing Before I move on just very quickly if I may don't forget I'm gonna have a chat with the head of trading peers current Amplified co-founder of course and he and I have a bit of a end-of-week chin wag where we talk about some of the key things in Markets and for sure we'll talk about some of this EV move that we've been seeing and some of those stock names In the equity space Amongst other things so do check it out Just search for amplify me market maker on Spotify Google podcast Apple and so on all right One of the banks that has actually changed their rate cool is JP Morgan comes on the coattail of Others that we've seen like goldman's and so on But JP Morgan analysts have said they now expect the Fed to raise rates next September Becoming the kind of latest Wall Street bank to change their forecast which they previously saw the Fed on hold through next year 2022 On Thursday one of the other things we did see and it kind of fits then in step with what we had from Williams was Charles Evans Who's one of the US central banks most kind of reliable policy doves or perceived to be and he said he is more quote? open-minded To raising interest rates next year than he was six months ago So again, this is the the kind of subtlety of the nuance of language I mean it sounds fairly insignificant, but it's a meaningful thing and when you start to hear the collective changing Typically those bit it of a more dovish disposition than you know Definitely the the Fed are starting to tilt towards being more hawkish The other thing that JP Morgan said that perhaps was interesting Their economists believed drone Powell will win the nomination for the Fed share for another four years from Biden Remember sources early in the week were saying about a four-day period into that announcement and that four-day period would lapse Pretty much by the end of today going into Saturday So potentially an announcement over the weekend The latest is that Powell has public backing from a number of Democratic and Republican senators including a majority of Republicans on the banking committee and key moderate Democrat John Tester of Montana According to latest reports albeit Joe Manchin who's been the headache on passage from the Democrats on the Senate for the Bill About better bill and he's also said to be requested meetings of both Brainard and Powell later today So, yeah, we'll see how that plays out again. I'm still leaning on Powell at this point in terms of my expectation Okay, moving over to COVID. Yeah, it's been quite This hasn't been a new thing I've been listening to a lot of podcasts and things like that this week and we obviously had a big week in terms of Euro weakness overall and that's comes to policy divergence I've just been talking about the Fed does Shifting gradually to becoming more hawkish against then the remaining Static if you like ECB who are nowhere near the opportunity of doing such measures at this point and There's going to be a bit of a disconnect between then the timings of course between the Bank of England We've had data the UK recently that was suggest actually the furlough impact was more marginal inflation is moving quicker on the upside Did a hike possibly then in December the Fed now sounding hawkish But the ECB static and if anything in Europe things are going worse at this point in time and chiefly because of COVID And it's concerning because of course the time of year and so on and so forth But we've just had some breaking news that are Austria and to give you a bit of context before I run through these headlines This hasn't updated yet. So these numbers are Kind of 24 hours old But the patterns remain true and Austria has been the absolute outbreak here of daily new confirmed cases per million on a Seven-day rolling basis followed by the Netherlands the UK seeing a bit of an uptick. This doesn't account for yesterday's meaningful uptick that we saw As well, which was actually The most in a month in the last 24-hour period for the UK after that good run Germany obviously heading up as is the US as is France at the moment. So Yeah, not looking terribly good, but Austria have come out and they said they're going to go into a hard Lockdown as of Monday It will be a 20-day lockdown for everyone Including those who have vaccinated which will then continue for just the unvaccinated because there's a big Political dispute at the moment how certain European countries are handling or the NHS is handling in the UK About people and their jobs and who gets locked down whether they're vaccinated or not Obviously a real contentious issue on the for the politicians to handle but on the on the other countries Germany We know has been making noises about this They've been a little bit indecisive because of the the formation of the coalition is yet to really be just Decisive enough, I guess to make a quick decision But they're applying pressure on citizens to get COVID-19 shots They're announcing plans to restrict many leisure activities for unvaccinated in almost the entire country In the European space Greece has expanded Restrictions for unvaccinated check Republic savaki have imposed extended bans the Netherlands resumed a partial lockdown last week Austria they're also using police checks to deter people from breaching their vaccine requirements as well So, you know things are getting serious pretty quickly here Meanwhile in the UK as I briefly mentioned, you know, I was talking earlier Two weeks ago about or even a week ago about the fact that the UK was looking quite good in a sense that we'd had a consecutive run of declining cases But that now has ended and actually the UK's recorded more than 46,000 cases of coronavirus in the last 24 hours and that's the highest number in a month So it's quickly kind of changing direction a total of 277,261 cases were reported in the past seven days For contests context, that's equivalent of around 14 and a half percent rise that we've had Over that period of a week and then the other one isn't in the US now Obviously it would take me a long time to deconstruct the entire landscape of America because COVID is very much more There's a big difference between given how expansive and the different temperatures and climate and how density populated these areas are in America But Chicago is one that's just been flagged as they're facing their latest surge of COVID cases ahead of the holiday season Which obviously is quite concerning as we've got things like Thanksgiving and you definitely don't want to be going into Thanksgiving With case cases already rising because one would imagine that post that event certainly if last year was anything to go on those cases are going to spike higher again and for Chicago Yeah, their daily cases are up about 18% from the previous week And so yeah, the problem you have with Thanksgiving, of course, is that if there is freedom of movement Then if cases are spiking on a 20% incline over a weekly period then and And rising and then we get into Thanksgiving and people start to disperse to see their family around the country You can see quite quickly how this starts to become quite problematic So yeah, that's the COVID situation Bitcoin Bitcoin Has drawn a bit more attention. I mean that I'm gonna bring up the chart fresh I haven't actually got it prepared marked up with any technicals But just for the conversation piece you can see after we hit that that run-up, you know We had a such a solid gain really through this period of October there was all that talk at the time about the ETF launches Valkyrie pro shares and so on There's been just a huge amount of interest in in the kind of the combination of the ecosystem if you like of the metaverse and decentralized finance all coming together and that's what really prompted the big rise We had in Bitcoin and now we're just seeing a bit of that come out really and and after hitting near 70,000 We've now traded down as much as sub 56,000 in the futures. I'm looking at here in Bitcoin One thing I did see a few people talking about was a fib retracement I haven't actually marked this up. So let's do it together now while we're on the on the session So taking that low point from the summer, which was a huge technical level, of course that we were looking at the time 30k psychologically you had the lows from early 2021 You had the test in June fail to break and then you had that bounce So definitely big level down there, but that seems a great distance from where we're at at the moment So yeah, if you put the fib on here on the daily, I mean and again, I'm looking at the futures chart You would say potentially from a technical perspective Of course technicals play quite a strong degree of how price action tends to react amongst Obviously fundamentals as well in the crypto space, but although we've bounced a little bit from recent lows You can see that fib doesn't really start to come in until the 382 If we till we get lower to really around the 54,000 level And so perhaps there's a little bit more further to run at this point in time And then you've got 53 would be that initial peak we had on the 7th of September as well So yeah, I'm still interested and obviously this isn't a Bitcoin only move. It's been fairly uniform across the space as well But perhaps from a technical perspective looking at things like Ethereum Not too unsurprising to see a little bit of a breather after the pretty sharp rise that I had seen I don't think most people who are who are holders are particularly panicked by the sell-off But certainly short-term more speculative Perhaps retail money in that sense might be might be just exacerbated from the short-term price movement But the people I speak to Some of the research that I read would suggest that more kind of long-term medium-term holders what I'd classify as more 6 9 month 12 month and beyond that they're not panicked at all by this this latest pullback, but yeah, we'll see Going back to the news the other things then that we've had I've already I think briefly mentioned this But just to give you the details the vote on the US president's 1.75 trillion social spending bills being delayed until Friday in the House of Representatives The vote was originally scheduled for last night because politicians wanted to wait for the CBO The Congressional Budget Office to come forward with their assessment of what this bill would mean for the economy over the long term And essentially their findings said that it's going to add quite a lot to the deficit over that decade period in fact Around 367 billion to the deficit But their analysis did not include any revenue generated by additional financing through tax enforcement Nonetheless the CBO reports probably enough then for politicians to start push to push back on the progression of this bill I would have thought even though in a technical sense that that figure that they'll be saying is not really true If it doesn't really account for tax enforcement, which you would imagine would be the case So again such as politics. It's just the latest thing. I don't think it's too meaningful to be honest But yeah, well, they vote today. Perhaps would it get delayed perhaps does it mean a lot for markets? Not really, I'd say But time is ticking on this matter And a similar thing can be said for Brexit and so the European Commission vice president Seva Secovic and the UK Brexit Minister David Frost They're gonna be meeting in Brussels later on today as they do to turn it take stock of their week of intensive talks that they've had and It's gonna be focused on easing the flow of medicines between Britain and Northern Ireland along a broader range of customs and food inspection Issues a deal on medicines according to analysts and it's being reported in Bloomberg Would give fresh impetus to wider talks and temper fears that the UK might imminently just end all Negotiations and the retaliation effect from the EU if article 16 is invoked And so this isn't kind of the silver bullet. This is the deal that does the whole Northern Ireland protocol done It's just one thing Let's say that then just keeps them at the table and avert the worst-case scenario is the way I'd think about it So something to be aware of they're speaking today Frost was speaking at the House of Lords yesterday and he did acknowledge that the European courts of justice Would continue to have a role in interpreting EU law in the region And that's a huge contrast to the remarks he made Less than a month ago Remember he was pretty stern saying if the ECJ is still involved in any kind of final decisions that happen in regard to the border with Northern Ireland Then that's their red line and now he's softening on that. So again, it's the usual Brexit merry-go-round They go aggressive they come off they go again. They posture It's quite frankly, it's just It's quite tiring at this point. So yeah, I don't think it's particularly meaningful as far as Mark is concerned Very short-term in an intraday basis, but that's your latest All right for the session ahead. We've really had the UK retail sales It's pretty quiet this morning the whole day in fact from a data perspective is pretty dull You've got CAD retail sales this afternoon Christine the guard these be present to speak this morning Talking on a speech entitled recovery to strength. I'll be at 8 30 and 6 p.m. And then you've got the equity index option expires happening throughout the day UK Europe and the US as well So just to be aware of it's a final thing. Don't forget check out the podcast Please subscribe follow leave a rating if you like it and yet new episode coming out But I hope you've had a good week and I will see you on Monday. Take care