 Right welcome to DCA live everybody we take the concerning issues that are going on in the crypto and traditional finance market and try to make sense of it the question we have today is If it's even relevant is is up October canceled I personally think it is but maybe I could be wrong So I invited to my friends along to help me out to make sense of this all this is of course We got James from the best answers James. Thanks for coming back Hey everybody And then of course Ben from another crypto verse Ben welcome Yeah, so far so I mean well my portfolio is not doing good, but everything else is pretty good So let's go over it the news. So what's going on? We know the unemployment numbers suck Let's talk about why this is bad and what the feds response will probably be not that we know what's going on Now let's take a look at job openings job openings are down the average hourly earnings are down. Is that good enough to reduce? Demand which is what I believe the feds trying to do then. Where's the upside? What's the opportunity? What are you doing? You're sitting on your hands Are you running into the building burning bridge or the burning building and lastly? What is going on in the crypto world or traditional that gives you hope for the near-term future and of course We'll do a little little Q&A at the end and then as always you can find James and then their information is in the description below so you can check out their channel Also, I will recommend two videos for you to check out one been did with Guy over from coin Bureau cryptocurrency regulations fast anyone a little bit on a longer side But really good stuff and then been at it or James at a good one What the world needs crypto and just kind of seeing you know where we're going excellent videos. Thank you gentlemen I appreciate it. So Markets down s&p's down Now's next down. Let's start with James here the unemployment numbers. I know just I excuse me Ben I know Benny just put out a video So talk to us about why is this bad and what will the feds response will be because I think we're down to like 3.0 Actually, we went up right 3.5 3.5. All right. So where we at? Yeah, I mean, so if you if you just said unemployment is back down to 3.5 And in a bull market that would sound pretty good, you know But not not when inflation is still high not when the Fed is obviously trying to get inflation to come back down Lower unemployment and actually three and a half percent is the lowest. It's been this this you know this business cycle I don't even think you could even find unemployment Lower than three and a half percent unless you went back to the late 60s early 70s and that was an inflationary decade itself So the reason it's bad is is because the Fed has the green light to just continue raising interest rates, right? I mean like this is this sort of the story of 2022 and I've said the entire year they're they're gonna be making it to four to five percent by the end of this year and They're already at three and a quarter Another 75 basis point rate hike is likely going to happen in November I do think it'll in less inflation comes in well below expectations I think we'll likely have another 75 base point rate hike in November and what's interesting I've been following this relatively closely as if you go look at at CME group and and look to see what what's going on in December They're now saying that we have about a 24 percent chance of another 75 basis point rate hike in December as well Which is a new that's a new a new vault like something that's actually only recently occurred I was watching it for the last week It was hovering around like a one to two to three percent probability But with the most recent job report with unemployment going back down It just makes it seem like the Fed is gonna have to keep raising rates They keep saying their data dependent and I think that's true I think as long as unemployment stays low whether you believe the number or not is kind of irrelevant because that's the number They're using and and they've stuck to their guns the entire year They say look if unemployment stays low and inflation stays high, we're gonna raise rates and we're gonna keep them higher for longer I think a lot of people sort of refuse to believe that's going to actually happen but it seems like it's happening whether you like it or not right like it is happening what you like it or not and You know, I think the other the idea of achieving a soft landing I know it's I know it's like an optimistic scenario It does not seem like a very likely scenario because I would argue the only way you achieve a soft landing is if you can bring Inflation down without sending unemployment higher, but as I said earlier on my video sort of like a chicken and an egg problem like Does can inflation come down if if we have you know all this wage inflation? If if no one's really out of work and again I do understand that a lot of people are out of work, but it's not it's not being reflected in in some of these larger data sets that way that we've been following so I think that the Fed's response will be to Continue to remain hawkish to likely get us to at least a four and a half percent Fed funds rate by the end of the year So that means at least another 75 basis point rate hike and then another 50 at minimum So probably four and a half by the end of the year and then They'll likely continue on you know with their QT policy of rolling off assets from their balance sheet It likely will continue to put downward pressure on risk assets You know I actually looked I did another video recently where I compare this S&P 500 bear market with prior bear markets and We could I mean we could hang around the lows for a while as well I mean we could kind of slowly put in new lows and then it's possible that the next major leg down Could be after a recession is fully priced in because I again I understand the two quarters of consecutive negative GDP is a technical definition But another definition is is to see things like unemployment going higher and the Fed's not gonna pivot until that happens I think so I think it makes sense to assume that risk assets will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future and And that October is not canceled. It just it was never really a thing to begin with If you look I mean if you look at Bitcoin 2014-2018 those are the last two two years where October was read, you know and 2014-2018-2022 I would argue it was more likely that we we are under pressure this month It doesn't mean we can't have some counter-trend rallies. We've had plenty of them this year We had one in July we had one in March, you know, January February March We had one in July and August we can certainly have one again But I don't think it's I don't think the base case should be to assume that you know We're gonna rally back up and Everyone's gonna forget this bear market ever happened, right? I think the the base case is to assume that risk assets will remain under pressure and Until the Fed until the Fed pivots we shouldn't assume that the bear market is over and even once they do pivot If history is an indication the bear market still isn't over So I mean we have that to look forward to as well We could have a bear we could have a rally off of a pivot news, but usually the bottom occurs After they stop cutting rates not after they just simply start cutting them It's after they stop them much later on so I think it I think it would make sense for investors to still be cautious To be patient and and to not fight the Fed Okay, so on is the answer James same thing and that way and we had taught behind the scenes also to add same things on here the CPI numbers What do you think so the same question plus the CPI numbers? What do you think we're gonna be and of course talk Fed rates? Yeah, first of all, this is an inflationary supply-side recession So the Fed has no control over it All they can do is take a huge baseball bat and smash the hell out of the economy and that's what they're doing now The last thing also to turn in an inflationary supply-side recession is unemployment. That's where we are right now And we're also focused on the wrong numbers. Let me explain why yeah payrolls did climb. I think 260,000 last month the job is raised three and a half percent so This basically if you just look if you're in a plane at 30,000 feet You see three and a half thousand through our three and a half percent down below from 35,000 feet You think oh the Fed's gonna do a big hike not saying that they won't They've they said there's gonna be pain. So they're gonna make pain happen But the problem is the demand for new hires is dropping fast And I'm hoping the Fed see things like the KPMG report over half of CEOs Have layoffs on their radar remote workers first big employers already cutting staffers The over 50 crap 55 proud as a new labor fix cuz every under 55 is kind of part of the great resignation are quite quitting and the Fed is focused on inflation and That means jobs are collateral damage to these numbers give them another 200 basis points of unemployment Before they have to be concerned, but the problem is the lag it takes time to riff folks it's a legal process and You know everything is months behind so it's all a joke But the big thing that is really a joke for me is the unemployment rate fell to three and a half percent largely Nobody talks about this because the labor force declined. There are fewer people Looking for jobs and there are fewer people participating in the labor force I think the labor force participation rate fell To 62.3 percent down from 62 and a half percent in August. That's the problem People are part of this either quiet quitting or great resignation So the numbers need to be looked at in a larger scope Against the backdrop above the numbers. So that's my take in in terms of CPI, you know Everything was fine. Everything was coming crashing down real fast Until OPEC threw a curveball into the machinery now oils back above 90 bucks I always say you look at inflation look at oil that won't feed into this CPI result yet So we're okay, but it probably will the next which could make inflation a little more sticky Which is a problem and the fact I think it's just comical, you know Biden goes hat-in-hand to MBS in Saudi Arabia, and you know, he's in bed with Putin Forehand, it's just it was just desperate to see the weakness, you know, yeah us protects Saudi Arabia You know in the air and it was just it just very very bizarre circumstances, you know, everything everything in this world As I say it's broken everything's different So we'll see that's my take yeah So I can there is a chance that the CPI number will be will will be down But how much down is it enough to call the dogs off? I don't think so and then so why I guess the fall would be like does the Fed care about the CPI or the core CPI Because I mean if we're taking a look at that like which ones they really care, okay, then look at the core Yeah, yeah, so I mean if they're gonna do that is core CPI over you are we stripping out energy Yes, energy and food I think and food and food so like in that regard and if they strip it out And of course like you said it's not gonna catch up till later Of course, you know the price are gonna go higher I think the question then becomes like do we start to expect not what the pivot not What the Fed should do but what they're going to do and I know a lot of people been screaming James You're one of them and then Professor Siegel from Wharton Business School He's been screaming as well that that's drone Powell is doing everything wrong And it's it's gonna lead to a big collapse, but as we're looking at these things Is it really about like what they should do or what they're going to do? Because we can talk all day long like what what he should do, but he's not gonna do it It seems like am I wrong here Well, that's it's actually my former professor the guy you just mentioned So I think I think we're missing the forest for the trees here recession is the real issue This is the first time that the Fed will face another true Volcker test Which means hiking into a full-blown recession stuff is gonna break The studio survey tells you stuff is gonna break Um State it's I just got a report that maybe the video is stuck live could somebody check on YouTube and Let's see maybe so keep talking. I'll take a look. All right And the real problem is as I think oh Coons law I did a video in this earlier this week and it talks about how when you drop GDP for example if you drop GDP growth by one percentage point it basically strips out 800,000 jobs out of the Employment batch or reduces an employee by half a percentage point and that's the biggest problem and that combined with things like quiet quitting That's why we see the productivity number is going in the toilet. Yeah, we're sitting around in their jobs completely checked out Who knows what they're doing? Maybe they're watching YouTube at the office, right? What you guys and then the jokes is also falling fast Beverage curve is another one which is the simplest way to explain why the Fed is raising rates because of the lags and everything else, but again Everything is going to come down crashing hard. I do believe I think cracks cracks are already forming in other parts of the world Here the UN calling the Fed saying hey slow down. You saw the problem in the UK. You saw the Australian Central Bank doing a little tiny slowdown and rate hikes Which was not expected. So, you know, we're seeing cracks in the system and We've seen the housing market in the US grind to a halt etc. Etc. So we'll see Yeah, we see so yeah, and we did a video on this yesterday. We it was Mary Daly the Fed chair for San Francisco and they asked her point blank Are you gonna pivot because the UN UN college you said what they want to pit They you guys should you're destroying everything and Bank of England They've already pivoted and she said point blank She's like look we have a mandate from Congress for America and essentially saying we don't really care What's gonna happen in globally? I think that that is a mistake and we'll see how it all plays out I guess that would lead me to my next one and James. I'm gonna since you're up here again I'll start off with you the job openings down average hourly earnings are down Is that good enough and what I'm talking about specifically is there was two numbers? I think you shared this with me US added 263,000 jobs in September, but that's cooling off from July was almost gosh Almost 600,000 and they went down to below 400 now they're at 263. So that's a cool off They would take a look at real Real average hourly earnings from August 2021 to August 2022 1126 1095, but then if you look at it, you can see the average weekly earnings went from 1,067 to 1116 So I guess this would fall up with what you were talking about before as far as like earnings And wages and how they're actually much lower But is this good enough to reduce the demand for what what the Fed wants to do because they can't deal with the supply The only thing deal is with demand by clubbing everybody over the head and saying stop buying or kidding out there and buying things Yeah, to be honest. I I actually don't know what the Fed are looking at or what they're doing You know people like Neil Kashkari if you just look at his tweets and all the things he said over the last year and a half He's all over the place He said I think early this year. He said we're never going to high grades until at least 2024 And here we are now. He's saying we're never going to stop hiking rates So I just don't know what all these Fed people are actually looking at But when you peel back the onion and you look at the true data and you look how things are different Ever since c19 because c19 did shake a lot of things up It shaked up how companies operate how they employ how they compensate and and also Again, great resignation The 55 plus is coming back to work because they have to and the younger people not working and the productivity being in the The toilet that's the real problem But I think if you project forward things like the jolt's curve the beverage curve Look at oakun's law like I mentioned before It's all coming down real fast just like inflation because of demand Destruction, but it just takes time to come to the system and when they hike rates Like the rake heights that they do say for example in september We don't see the full effect of them till march next year. That's the problem So the damage is already done And if they keep this accelerated pace up We're smashing a summer 2023 into pieces This is not good Yeah, that is that that is the big problem ben's same thing over here Anything to add or you want to go to the next one or I want to talk about what's the upside and what you're doing Well, I mean, I don't think there's um I don't think it's enough to keep the fed from raising another 75 basis points. Um I think what's more what they're more or less So going to be looking at is the inflation report next week So if it if it comes in really under expected then maybe they do 50 But I'm still on the camp that they're just going to go forward with a fourth 75 basis point rate hike And I would only change my mind depending on on where the inflation numbers come in So I don't really think the uh this report is gonna is going to actually change anything there I mean, I think they've been fairly clear and and as far as as far as, you know, then continuing to raise interest rates and and break something Yeah, I mean like that's what we've been saying for like the entire year is that this is what's happening and this is why Cash is king, right? This is why the u.s. Dollar is king right now And and their risk assets remain You know remaining incredibly risky It's only a problem if if you haven't prepared for it like if you if you've prepared for it I mean you you kind of want asset prices to go down in the short term So it's not about what they and you asked earlier like it's what what should they do is what is what should they do the same as what they're doing I think so. I mean, I think they should raise interest rates uh because we we know what happens when they pivot back to qe And and then go back and forth you get you get a stock market that goes sideways for 16 years Like we saw in the late 60s to the to the mid 80s So, you know, would you prefer to play that game where we just sort of like play tennis that that pivots and they You know, they go from qt to qe to qe to you know Just back and forth for 15 years and we watch the stock market go sideways That's the other I think that's the other path if if we don't I would prefer just get the you know Rip the band-aid off get it over with Now set us down to however low we're gonna go and then maybe we can go back into another period of economic expansion I I don't I don't buy that they're doing the wrong thing I I think they did the wrong thing last year by not raising interest rates when they should Now hang the price for it Yeah, I think I think maybe that's why why Jerome Powell and the rest of the board are like We need to do something now and we need to keep our our foot on the gas because we screwed up last time We're not gonna say that but we want to keep doing this so we don't so we can save grace All right. So then so ben you're here. So tell us something We know where things are going we know what they're gonna do So, what are you doing? Are you sitting on your hands right now? Are you buying anything? Are you just sitting in that big huge heap of cash that you have? Or are you running in the burning building and you know buying some things around around the bend? um Yeah, I'm not I mean I haven't bought any crypto except for except for bitcoin in And at least like nine or ten months. I think Um, I have picked up some bitcoin at these prices because I think like long term There's still good value and I also want to hedge against like, you know If we don't have another leg down eventually Then I think it's worthwhile to have to have some bitcoin, but at the same time Like I I don't know how I can look at these market conditions and say that like I wouldn't want to have cash Right, like if I if I think if I think we're likely going to see unemployment going up eventually Which I mean it seems like it's going in that direction. It's just taking a long time is as james sad, right? I mean like you're you're slowly seeing it occur with the slowing of the of the job mark You know the you know the the jobs being filled and whatnot So I do think we're going to get there. It's just that history shows us that The stock market doesn't bottom until after unemployment is is getting close to its peak But unemployment hasn't even started going up yet, right? So um I I think like I can't assume yet that the stock market has bottomed yet until until we see Until we see inflation coming down and the fed pivoting and and then we we kind of see how much damage they've actually done Until then I I do think cash is is honestly probably one of the best places to be Uh, and and when I say cash, I I should say I I'm referring to the u.s. Dollar. I'm not referring to like euros or Other things. I'm I'm mainly just referring to the u.s. Dollar But the way that I mean you you can also earn interest Do you know one thing that my generation of investors have not been privy to since we've really been an investor Is our interest rates this high? So I mean it it kind of sucks in some sense But you know you can go earn 4% relatively risk free, you know I mean just sitting on your cash like that. I know it's not much But it's something and and I don't have to worry about that I don't have to worry about that cash losing 30 percent because you know because the stock market has another leg down I don't have to worry about it losing 70 percent because some altcoin gets rubbed, right? I don't have to worry about that It's 4% It it kind of sucks because inflation is that you know at least 8.3 percent year of a year for headline inflation But it's better than nothing and and it's probably and I think it just sort of goes along the same sentiment of it's It's the year 2022 is the year to protect your wealth not to try to create it And and that's that's sort of the camp I sit in so I still do think cash is king I've said that all year. I think it will remain king Uh for the rest of this year counter turn rallies aside. I'm sure we'll have some in every bear market rally everyone You know everyone gets like oh, this is it like this, you know, we're gonna break back out and and then we just come back down so um I do think 2022 is just going to be remembered as cash is king and honestly I I could even see the cash is king narrative Having legs into 2023 as well. I mean again, it's gonna Depend on how long it takes unemployment to really start to move higher Again, the last thing I'll say on the matter is right now We're in the phase where good news is bad news So like it's actually good news that unemployment is low, right? Like in your most circumstances you want unemployment to be low But right now good news is bad news because it means the fed has to raise rates Eventually, we're going to get to the phase where bad news is good news So like once we once we start seeing the unemployment rate go up Um, the fed will likely have to pivot and then it'll be bad news is good news And we'll probably get some type of of pivot rally, right where where everyone thinks the worst is over But then we'll we'll then we'll probably get back to the the final part of it Where it where it's bad news is bad news when you know after the fed pivots and the economy still isn't recovering That's when I think you could see another another um Pull back in the stock market where you finally see bad news being bad news And then and then the bottom will likely be in Yeah, there we go bottom could be in at some point James same thing here. What are you doing? And this could be crypto. This could be equities. This could be real estate. Whatever you got What are you doing right now burning building running in or Hands put things in perspective Nothing has changed from my side always keep some powder dry Hedge positions and nibble on items that you want for the long haul uh DC as and steroids as I call it now crypto actually for some perspective Since we are here together last friday The s&p 500 is actually up 2 percent. Although it feels like the world is ending And crypto is up a little bit too. Bitcoin is a little bit higher than it was last friday as well So that is just some perspective. Uh, the other thing, uh, a lot of people were hoping for was some crypto regulation But I had to have you guys bend you to the big video on that that's not gonna happen until 2023 Yeah, I mean congress are sitting on their hands or whatever they do over there. I'm not sure So the big thing and correct me if i'm wrong ben you said a while ago That the market doesn't bottom until we are two thirds the way through the recession My take is always one third the way through the recession is when the market bottoms And in the big 11 recessions since 1953 I think the average length is about 10 months. So we're already two quarters into this. So I know there are some outliers. I think the global financial crisis recession was about 20 months not 10 So longer than average, but with that I think we are very very very close to the bottom. That's how I say it's like jumping out a basin window So if you're in positions now, uh, it's too late to sell, but it's a great time to enable for sure James the counter the counterpoint to that is that you're saying the recession started from like the two quarters of negative gdp definition but i'm referring to the recession as defined by Uh, how it's like how it's actually been defined and when unemployment actually starts to go up Like there's the technical definition of the recession with two quarters of negative gdp And then there's the actual recession where you actually see unemployment go up and the stock market doesn't usually bottom until unemployment actually starts to go up so there And this is why everything is so different and this is why you know people have multiple part-time jobs There's been the great resignation There is the whole labor force participation These are all the curve balls that have made history a little more difficult to read That's my take. So I love having this debate with you because together we'll find the answer and that's the great thing about dca But overall, uh, I think it's just a good time to nibble on stuff Crypto as well held up very well. I think Since the 20th of august crypto has outperformed the smp 500 So we'll see in a lot of talk about decoupling Maybe this could be the year somebody was saying there could be a big decoupling happen up to a year end So I think the big question is what are you doing yet nibble on good things that you have a long-term perspective for Like even a couple of quarters, you know, certain assets are going to have amazing earnings Despite a little blip or despite some weird acquisitions happening with twitter, you know, things are getting Completely oversold right now But there are other assets that are just in the bargain basement that You know, it wouldn't have dreamed possible To get at these prices and there are some things that are holding up strong like i'm ready to buy I've got limited orders in on a bunch of assets and it's just not getting to those levels but I did fill Fill my bags with crypto during the summer and now i'm looking at key equities to add It's pretty solid and I will say this like there's a little difference of opinion here about Recession how long it's going to take to bottom all those things But I think we we can all agree we're headed that way if not here right now And 2023 is going to be a pretty rocky year moving forward. Can we agree on that? I don't know when it's going to stop, but I think 2023 is not the greatest Yeah, I think the bottom I think the stock market probably bottoms in 2023 is my guess James same thing or maybe longer We are we are in kind of reaching touch of the stock market bottom. That is probably the 3500 level Maybe even 3600 in the sp500 and we'll see we just need a couple of signs of cracks of You know when people sniff out a fed pivot you see the market react fast Like we saw monday and tuesday this week Two two and a half plus gainer days on the smb 500 consecutively and that rarely happens and so The point is timing And trying to get inside the heads of the people at the fed Is both a scary thing and an impossible thing to judge and estimate But When that signs of that pivot actually do happen or when they do pivot Things will just go insane and we'll see squeezes like we've never seen before And that's that's the piece we look for but we just don't know when that's is it another 12 weeks Is another 16 weeks is another six weeks? I don't know But it's coming soon because the the other big thing is if you look at the credit markets out there They are in really bad shape right now and that's the piece that The you know the fed look at I hope they look at but when credit dries up That's when you get a global financial crisis and credit is drying up Fast right now and you look at the credit default swap Prices right now out there. You saw heard last weekend what happened with credit swiss Deutsche bank. These are zombie banks. They're probably illiquid and they're still out there floating But once one of those big guys crack you'll get the domino effect like we had in crypto and that could be ugly If that's the case and what we'll move forward, but if that's the case I know some people here have just gotten to crypto in 2021 or maybe new investors But these are the things that that people have been here for a while Ben james myself other people out there We are salivating at these opportunities and it could go down much lower. Let's just be honest And uh, but these are the things that we'd actually I I can only speak for myself I'd like to see a little bit lower because I don't feel like the bottom's in I think we've got a ways to go I think time will tell but now that we just hit everybody over the head and clubbed them like baby seals Let's bring it back just a little bit I would like to I would like to say one thing about that Rob Like just because like I see a lot of people in the chat saying that like I'm I'm like I'm too negative I would argue that like it's better to be it's try to it's better to be It's better to be objective about something And and to try to plan for a potential scenario Then to just say it can't happen, right? So like I do think that's important and the reason I've said cash is king this year Is not because I'm like anti crypto or anti anything like that It's just because I know the real opportunities in the last bear market came in you know in 2019 They they did not come in 2018 yoloing every every single counter turn rally on the way down, right? Like it came the following year So I'm saying it so that you don't make the same mistakes that I've made not because I'm anti crypto or anything like that I've just I've been burned so many times in crypto myself in in 2014 and in 2018 And I know and I know how bad it it actually can get and I mean just because an all coins down 80% doesn't mean it can't go down Another 80% like it can there's a big difference between an 85% correction and a 90% correction Like it's not as little as you think so I'm not anti crypto I don't I just I think it's important to remain objective and to recognize that really the people who did who did the best in 2020 and 2021 Were the people that were buying in 2019, right? Not the people that yoloed every dip all the way down in 2018 starting from 20k and and you know And the all-point market all the way down and I know I mean I I I made some of those mistakes So yeah, I get I get why some people might say it's just being me to being negative But at the same time, I think the people that actually stack cash this year Those will be the real winners of the next bull market Yeah, and I was out on that I missed that can cash for a while and I'm waiting for this opportunity and I think that right now Like I'm just waiting for the housing market to crash. It's coming. I mean it's already on the decline I'm waiting for crypto to fall even farther as far as equities I don't play too much in that game, but I but I could see myself picking up some more amazon later on The thing is it's hard to sit on your hands and do nothing It's the most hardest thing you can possibly do but the ones that do that and have discipline And it can wait it out are the ones that are the next deck up millionaires If not billionaires the next one. I know it sucks to hear like like the negativity But it's better. We tell you negativity right now that is reality Then to feed you with a bunch of hopeium and have you get suckered in and then all of a sudden you lose your cash You're like those guys lied to me and da da da Not to be a little bit too rambunctious, but that is just how it is. I was there in 2017 I was there in 2018 when people told me the same nonsense that you may hear another crypto channels And we do not do that here. So having said all that What is going on? This is a good pivot What's going on in the crypto world that that gives you hope for the near-term future me personally? I just feel like there are some and james talked about this a lot about the big institutions We got the black rocks the the mass mutuals the the nigh digs that are coming in and they want to do a lot of things I also see that there was a chart If we just take there was one that's the bitcoin wallet size You know we're at an all-time high for bitcoin wallet size is greater than one bitcoin Which means people are buying and holding and then we take a look at holdal waves I know ben's big on this one people are really holding on I think it's like 66 or somewhere around there So these are the good things that I see it's just going to take time. So Ben I'll start with you because this would be good to to transition What gives you hope not in the near term? Let's be honest. Let's let's just take things out a little farther Well, I mean and to be clear even in the near term you could always see bitcoin rally back up I mean, you know, who knows? I mean if bitcoin was at 25k a few weeks ago We could go back to 25k and not necessarily change the macro outlook But I think uh, you know one of the one of the videos that I did recently And I think you mentioned this earlier was with guy from coin bureau and he's actually been on this Been on dca before I think one of the weeks that I wasn't here um We talked a lot about he talked a lot about regulations in europe and how it is actually looking a bit more optimistic than It was previously. So I do think that is at least one reason to be hopeful I think crypto is absolutely going to be huge A decade from now like I really do and and and well before then as well This is our I think this is just our dot-com bubble, right? Like this is our our our crypto bubble that we're waiting, you know, we're waiting through the bear market And and it's going to grow like crazy Once and you know, once we get back to an area of economic expansion We're just not there yet and it's better to just be honest about that and a plan for You know what I would consider the to be inevitable than to to assume otherwise, but I think in the united states I'm hoping that we see more regulations coming. I know there is some there are some There's supposed to be some things coming out. I think over the next few months providing some regulations I I think we've seen more, you know, larger institutions get involved in bitcoin in this bear market The funny thing though is as I said before in a bear market. No one cares about the good news There's been plenty of good news about crypto in this bear market Like you it wouldn't take long to find good news about crypto in the bear market. It's just that no one cares That's the point just like in a bull market. No one cares about bad news Um, you know, so many bad things happen in a bull market No one cares. Like it just doesn't matter. So, uh, yeah, I think there's been a lot of great positive developments I mean blackrocketing involved with bitcoin is is a good thing, you know, fidelity has I you know, they've been launched Talked about launching some stuff In the crypto verse as well All of these things are going to provide on ramps for people That one access to crypto that one exposure to crypto in the next bull market But I think it's reasonable to assume right now that a lot of larger players Don't want that exposure because there there still are a lot of uncertainties as to what crypto even is like Is this security? Is it not a security? Which ones are which ones aren't? Which ones are going to be regulated? You know, we'll we'll be Well, the validators comply with certain regulations like there's just there's so much uncertainty that we simply Don't know and I mean even like six months ago There, you know, there was some wording going into one of the bills that that made it sound like the validators We're going to have to kyc their delegators and it's like that's not a realistic thing You know, so I think there's some fear in the short term that the us may over-regulate Or they just don't know how to regulate it because none of the people there really know what they're talking about When it comes to crypto But once we get past that phase like once we once we are, you know We have some more clear card regulations that a lot of a lot of these bigger institutions are going to look around and say well Look, I mean damn like I mean it. Okay. It's a security. So what we buy securities all the time Now that we know what it is we're buying and we're bullish on the asset class in general It's time to buy so I do think like there are definitely positive developments going on but You know the the the recent happenings with with luna and and celcius And and even what just happened on the finance marching, you know, like yeah These are not This is not in still confidence into into into the bigger fish, right? I mean we might look at it and say oh, it's no big deal But if you're talking about someone with hundreds of millions of dollars They're not just going to go put it on some on some centralized platform or Or decentralized platform that that might have bugs so It's the time to build and that's another that's the that's the last thing I'll say is the the last thing that makes me optimistic is that despite how bad things have gotten with price and and despite how Bleak the short term has been for quite a long period of time There still are people building and there's still people that that see the vision of the future And I see that like I've met with some people actually in person and and they're very optimistic about You know about what comes after this And and what I what I sort of see is I see that the people that are going to start these companies now In 20 years I mean who knows it it's crazy as it sounds like it that could be the next apple or or Microsoft or or who knows what it could be I mean these companies back in the dot-com bubble They seem like nothing back then or they likely would just go to zero and now they're like the giants today So they're really cool to see which businesses Are born out of this out of this recession and in 20 years We'll probably look back and say oh man. It was so obvious. It was so obvious Yeah, I remind everybody amazon started as a bookstore And that was supposed to fail And then just remember that disney was started in the great depression And also in 2008 2009 you had big companies like uh linkedin and air bnb started up So it can happen. So just pay attention to the ones that are actually being built James What gives you hope my man? Just uh the many things give me hope but i'll just Share some numbers and what always fascinates me about bitcoin is it's so hard So let me just share a couple of numbers here one is the number of millionaires on earth 62 and a half million millionaires And number two the number of bitcoin ever available 14 million because so many are lost and sento should lock up Etc. I've talked about that a lot of times The number of bitcoin on exchanges today To about 2.06 3 million bitcoin And so if you wanted to buy all of the bitcoin on exchanges all you need is 40 billion dollars And that sounds like a lot of money But remember 40 billion the crypto market cap was 3 trillion at its high in november 40 divided by 3 000 is a tiny tiny percentage and the total global wealth on earth is 465 trillion And if you take the purchase Of that 40 billion to buy all the bitcoin that exists on the exchanges It's only point zero zero zero nine percent of the total wealth and the amount if every Every millionaire out there wanted to buy one whole bitcoin There's only enough for 3.3 percent of all the millionaires on earth That's why i'm excited and of course if those 3.3 percent of millionaires with 3.3 as i was 18 hundred 1.8 million millionaires The price of bitcoin will probably shoot to about over a million dollars if they all went to buy at once because Simply no supply so so what has me excited is scarcity and we're still very early We have another bite at the apple You know people were kind of frustrated when bitcoin shot from 4 000 to 67 000 in a relatively short period of time That was insane But now you know, there's a sub 20k bitcoin available to some people And i actually know a friend who was like a non-believer for the longest time I was like bitcoin ponzi. It's bs. Da da He went out and bought a whole bitcoin the other day and they said, you know, i'm just going to have one and It's 20 grand hookers and we'll stock it away and see what happens. So that gives me hope We're still so early the thing is so scarce And there's a lot of other very creative stuff happening That the world needs made a whole video about that yesterday about The world needs crypto because you can't trust governments and legacy financial systems are horrible There needs to be an alternative and that is crypto. So that keeps me bullish on the space. I hope I didn't ramble too long No, no, I you know on that video I like the statement that you said you're talking about jack mollars how he said that uh, if you print money for free Then all that that's really backing it is trust which is fiat But with bitcoin it cost electricity. It cost time. It costs space and overhead. That's how you can trust it I thought that was a pretty good statement. So yeah, that's it. All right, everybody So that is it for uh, the questions now We'll just slip into a little q&a. I'll make this kind of quick about 10 minutes or so and then as a reminder Today I am doing a a meet-up in here in El Paso. So come on down classical kitchen Over on uh, it's uh, montana and mccray. There is a the address is in the uh a description of the video I'll be there from 4 p.m. To 6 p.m. Stop on by. This is all you got to know right there beers and food Let's be honest market sucks. So once you cry a little bit into your beer with me and we talk rob is buying Yeah, you know what? You're right. I will buy the first round. It's been a crappy It's better Yeah, so come on down again the link is in is are the uh Address is right there at classical kitchen 9615 montana and that is it So now gents, let's move into just a little q&a. Here's some comments that I I caught on the way People in cash want things to break people in the market are hoping for some proof. I think that's all of us I don't know if that's that and then being realistic is not being negative. Unfortunately, that's the true Uh question ben obviously has a huge pile of cashed probably so let's see I love this one They're all wrong As is everyone else. No one knows wtf what they're talking about. Look, here's the thing I will say about this This is not financial advice. Nobody has a crystal ball. These are educated guesses at best So do we know exactly what's going to happen? Absolutely not and then Beardy boomers had their 40 year bear one. They say now is it time is time for pain and they're retired? Yeah, but just like ben talked about what's the uh What the t-bills now For to get for like percentage wise Treasury bills 4 3.7. I think you get to 4% on t-bill a two-year. I think Yeah, I'm getting I'm getting around 4% on it for you No, okay, and then here's the next question ben and dan will be buying at 35k Ben just to clarify you said you were you were buying a little bit of bitcoin right now I I have picked some up recently. Yeah, like I I did get some because I have some like risk levels that I follow Uh to buy so Even in the capitulation in june. I I did buy some some bitcoin So it's funny because there's always these people that say that kind of I mean bullshit to be completely honest, right? And they they say it all the way down, right? Oh, they'll just buy they'll buy at a higher price later on and But it's funny because we we've just kept falling you know, I mean So yeah, I I I think it makes sense to to have an opinion and to be hedged either way but Um, yeah, that's my opinion sounds good James what do you got? Yeah, well, you're still you said you're already buying a little bit here and there and you got to your limit orders Yeah, so I I had a a plan of what I wanted to do and I've kind of Unless crypto gets a lot cheaper I I'm done buying that but now I'm looking into some equities that have had my eye on that are super super cheap and just waiting for Them to bottom some of them are a little bit earning sensitive And we're going into earning season So if any any stock right now misses earnings They will be smashed any stock that beats earnings Will catapult into the stratosphere and that's kind of the way it works right now. So You got to watch for earnings season. It's going to be very important in the coming weeks What's your what's your best bet? To be Well, I think some companies will miss A few good companies will beat and that's what you want to be in So there's a lot of talk about certain industries not doing well You know Media companies like google trade desk, etc Some of the software companies the Shopify's of the world. They'll be kind of wants to watch very carefully tesla They had a delivery miss, but production Was fine. The question is how does that transfer into the actual earnings themselves? So we'll see but a lot of a lot of weird stuff going on But there will be good opportunities arising over the coming weeks. I think I got to agree How about this one? This is interesting if a lot of people are holding cash I don't know if a lot of people are holding cash. I think people are kind of I mean the smart ones are Uh, can we assume the bottom will be shorter? First of all, we got to find the bottom any any thoughts on this one Yeah, so um, there is three trillion dollars on cash on the sidelines with professional money managers They're not paid to sit on cash So they feel incentive to actually buy and deploy and that time is coming real real soon Um, and I know a lot will drop a lot of money if we get to the level of 3,500 in the scp And we're currently about 3650 right now So 150 points and you'll see a lot of money come into the market and that could cause an avalanche But we don't know It comes this way But that that's the cash on the sidelines and then retail retail doesn't matter It's the asset managers that are holding three trillion retail doesn't have three trillion in cash So it's uh, it's a nothing burger Sorry about that. All right, and then Ben what do you got? I mean normally the bottom for crypto last at least a few months. I've been uh 2018 We spent about four months at the bottom In 2015 we spent like a year. I've had the bottom So I guess it depends on how far down we go. I mean if we go down If we just have a normal, you know normal final drawdown like we we like we saw it 2014 and 2018 I mean I think it could last a few months. I I um I don't think it's going to last like three years or anything like that but If history if history shows us we we should spend at least at least a few months At that at that level I can see that. All right, then last one and then we'll get out of here is um Coming elections Well, it helped for the relief rallies. I don't know if they're talking about the day of 30 days 60 days or 90 days or 180 days afterwards, but what do you think I think personally? I mean if you look at the at the stats usually You know 90 days after 180 days after you see the things start to rally but We're in a different position right now. It all depends on a lot of macro factors What are we are we going to keep having this this war in ukraine? Or is the fed actually going to pivot are they going to keep slamming harder harder harder? And then what's going to do with the cpi and numbers but anything else guys? I um Fully aware of my inability to predict Short-term rallies or bear market rallies like I I can't predict them. I'm not going to even try to I thought we were going to get a a bear market rally in june and then it happened in july So I I don't know honestly. I don't know when they're going to exactly come and Maybe maybe you would see something around the the election time But I I can't like I wouldn't like I wouldn't necessarily put a lot of money on that idea You know like who really knows I mean if you look at if you look at history I mean 2018 bitcoin bottomed in december and november was not a great month either. In fact, I think in 2018 november um We went down like 30 percent or something And that would have been four years ago, right? So we would have been dealing with the same You know the same type of stuff in terms of elections and that kind of stuff. So I don't I don't think there there should be that much weight put into it Uh, but I mean, you know, I'm sure I'm sure if we do get a rally Uh, you know a bear market rally back up which I would contend is always possibility Um, sometimes you gotta you gotta squeeze the shorts, right? If we do get it I'm sure the narrative would be that it's because of the um of the elections Yeah, unless michael sailor runs for senate wins. Maybe that could be it James, what do you got? Yeah, I think uh, what'll cause the markets to rally if they can pull power from The current people in power right now. I'm not republican or democrat. I don't care about either But uh, markets perform better with lame duck sessions And right now the senate is looking like 47 republicans to 46 democrats So that could change the balance of power and remove power from the government and that's what markets like They don't like when they did spend money And allocated very poorly, so not a political statement. I don't want to get any But just get government out of office and it will all be better off Well, that should be the whole crying thing get government losses and that's it. That's it for today So guys, I want to say thanks again for stopping by and again for you watching the video if you haven't already subscribed to james and ben Their channel is listed in the description again those two videos That's uh, ben did one with with guy and a couple of different grid ones out there and then james, uh, his last ones about uh When he was challenged and then the next one why the world needs crypto great videos. All right, everybody That's it. Thanks so much for stopping by appreciate it. Like and subscribe all that good stuff And we'll see you on the next one Every weekend everything good weekend. Good weekend. See you at classical kitchen