 Welcome traders to this week's live market trading analysis session with me, Patrick Munnerley. We're going to get started here in just another 30 seconds. Just to do a quick mic check if you can hear me loud and clear if you can type a Y into the chat box please. Thanks Noel. Okay, 1pm British summertime. Let's get this show on the road. Before we jump into presentation, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly, with respect to today's presentation, the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tickman UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. For those of you here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from university, I joined a city plc consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit, a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I went on to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with, and some time on my hands I started day trading S&P 500, or probably more appropriately at that time, day gambling. After some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains, however, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out. And as the market phase changed, I began to average down, basically giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit to my personal capital. So this was gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really have to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading, and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months or two years was a time during which I was not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing, since we back and forward testing strategies that crucially suit my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly, though, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game, and probably most importantly of all I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset, and you truly accept and understand the nature of trading being a numbers game in which we're simply playing with our abilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small stream of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades, because I know by focus on excellence in execution, my actual demonstrate itself over an extended series of multi strategy approach has delivered profitable revenue returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investing capital through the management account service, again, delivering positive annual returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to keep consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients, provides a in depth daily market outlet breaking down the fundamental technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos, and these are shared through the tick mill trading view accounts. And I'll post a link for that at the end of the presentation so you can follow along. I also run tick mills rapidly growing in any strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan, giving the pre market trading conditions for the cash trading session in New York for the S&P 500 or the human futures. I give my bias for the day ahead and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre market plans have delivered over 2500 points in profits since we launched the group. Second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The tick mill futures trading telegram group is a real time environment where on a daily basis I share in depth insights analysis and real time insights. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the cash session where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions will act as a platform, helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from. Let's jump into the charts. We're going to do something a bit different today. There are a bunch of opportunities that are close to fruition. And these are predominantly on the four hour charts. So we're going to walk through the setups that I'm tracking that I think will probably give trade trading opportunities potentially today or tomorrow, depending upon how the price action unfolds. So we're going to start here on the four hour chart of the S&P 500. I'm obviously using the e-mini futures contract. And what we're tracking is this big corrected pattern versus the swing structure we have in place here with the swing low at 3723. I'm looking for a test of 4033. Here I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns as an opportunity to engage on the short side, looking for the next leg down in what I believe is a bear market for currently trading it. So there are a couple of opportunities for me that I'm tracking today. Any pullback into this trend line support and the high volume nodes. So anything into 3919. I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns. Now, I'm obviously using the four hour chart here that you can, depending upon the time frame of choice and how, how you like to make your trading decisions, you could get you could break this down into a 15 minute chart. And all you'd be looking for is as we trade into this area would be a bullish reversal candle to engage on the long side. So that's just to give you a sense. The four hour charts with the rest of these with the rest of the analysis but I just want to show you that you can use these areas these levels on providing on shorter time frames if you like to try and reduce stacks of the risk parameters but certainly also trade in the four hour time frame as well because there's ample scope here in terms of mood. So if we get this pullback into 3920 3919 area, the target on the upside is 4033. So there's plenty of upside there to play for. So in terms of framing the trade here, let's just put in some some parameters. So we've been looking for something we've been looking for reversal in this area, and then we have our target up here at the 4033. So you can see, depending upon how you some people will just trade the let the strike of the level, depending upon your again your risk profile, even if you're playing the reversal from this area, like I said, 107 points of upside to play for so you can allow. I guess it comes down to personal choice in terms of some traders will prefer to take price risk, I taking the strike of the level and using tighter to stop other traders prefer to take information risk or confirmation risk and that means waiting for a bullish reversal candle on your chosen timeframe to engage on the long side. This is the trade I'm looking for today to play for that pullback and extension to the long side. Similar setup in the NASDAQ. We are trading just below the equality objective with the NASDAQ here so this gives me a couple of scenarios to think about. Firstly, any move up directly into this area, I'm going to be watching for bearish reversal to engage on the short side with the weekly R1 there as well, it's a nice level to play against. What I want to see is this momentum, I want to see this momentum divergence maintained to encourage that short setup. The alternative scenario here is we're going to pull back into trend line support here at 12,274 and we'll be looking then for that upside extension to complete this sequence before again then looking for bearish reversal time. Let's just draw in the setup area here. We use the daily projected range support as our invalidation level and then we're trading up into the target zone here. So again, you can see with this trade, there's potentially 100 points of risk on the table there, but the target is four to one upside in terms of the upside objective. So again, getting those risk rule parameters correct to ensure the longevity of our trading accounts. Again, now why I'm sitting right at the trend line support so there's a trade developing potentially here now so what I've been looking for any move back through these highs user protected stop just below the low there and our target. The initial target on this will this is the equality objective so by the time if this trade plays out and we get this move back through 31,931,945 let's say if that plays out, then the first area where I would be either looking to scale out of some of the position, and then my stops to entry will be the test of the equality objective. We also have weekly projected range resistance 32,340 and daily projected range of distance there so that's going to be a key test for the wire and because that could complete this correction and we could be rolling back over again. The alternative scenarios we extend higher and test into the R1 there up to 32,840 but like I say hey close attention to how we trade in this area, because this could define the next leg to the downside so I'm going to be watching there. And again if we get bearish reversal patterns there and I certainly be looking to engage on the short side of the initial setup here is we're testing the trend line support. We've got, we're holding at the moment so an outside reversal back through these highs would encourage long positions for now. Russell Russell is also sitting at its equality objective. Now what we kind of want to see with these, it's certainly, to my mind anyway. The S&P is the benchmark is the benchmark for global equity risk so I would, although obviously the Russell is testing the equality objective now it's like it's close to it and why am is close to it as well. We have still got that scope in terms of the, the S&P for another hundred points so I would anticipate what we see here is the Russell, I was looking I posted this chart yesterday on the trading view account. We have tested into, so what I'd look for is a pullback now into the trend line support. And if that coincides with the S&P pulling back into its trend line support, the YM and the NASDAQ doing the same, then we're going to get the same trade setup here, and we will be looking for this scenario to play out. So let's just draw in where we can anticipate some action here. Let's use that daily projective range support to give us a stop parameter and then we're trading up into this target zone. So that's what I'm watching for in the Russell. Obviously, if, if we take out the trend line support, and that's equally that then gives us additional trading information, because if we take out the trend line support that would suggest that this correction is complete, I'm watching for the first pullback against any impulse move through that trend line support, but for now, we're just focusing on the trend line test and the opportunity to engage on the long side. DAX, I've hosted this in the trading view account, we have this bull flag, I was looking for a break, and we've traded into the first target on the DAX now. So you're either taking half your position off, or you're moving your stocks to entry, but what I'm anticipating in the DAX now is, we have an inverse head and shoulder scenario developing. And so what I would anticipate is that we get a, another leg here to the downside, in a three wave move something like this. And we ultimately, let's see, there might be a pitchfork setup here as well. So we could extend here down back into 12,864, but from there, I want to be looking again on the long side I've got a target in the DAX here for a gap filled up into 13,792. So again, if we're thinking about framing the trade for you guys, you can see a visual representation of what I'm thinking. Now, once we train into this area, we could consolidate and then test the high volume notes. So I wouldn't necessarily take the trade off here if it sets up. I'd be monitoring the price action, rolling up stops, and actually playing for the high volume notes at just below 14,000 on the DAX. Moving to the foreign exchange, we have the dollar, we've got the ECB decision coming out in any minute now actually. And the dollar is, I'm viewing this as the first leg of a corrective move in terms of dollar index. So in terms of the principle, I'm looking for three corrective waves to play out for those Elliott wave followers, it's that ABC pattern or a WXY, a double correction. So what we're looking for here now in the dollar. So we're going to call this an impulsive move to the downside. So that's the first leg. Now we could correct in a three wave pattern potentially, and then we're looking for another leg to the downside. Now, importantly, if this sets up this test of the trend line is going to be key. We break then we're looking for that high volume note coming in at 10490 is the will be the first target on the downside. So again, let me just draw in what I'm thinking about here. Actually, I can see is this tool. So we're looking for a three wave corrective move versus this current swing structure we've got in place, which gives us a test 10755. That's going to be the area where I'm going to be looking for short positions. We use the 161 extension as our invalidation point. First target is going to be the trend line even at that stage trade potentially gives a three to one risk reward. Ideally, then we're looking for that high volume node, and that sets up with a four to one risk reward in terms of the setup. So that's that's one that's certainly on watch. You see the has raised rates by 50 basis points in July ministry policy decision. Let's check in this good time to check with the euro. Okay, I was looking in the euro for a three wave corrective move into test. I don't know if we're going to see that now we may still may still set up. But ultimately what I'm looking for in the euro is a test of this prior support zone before the breakdown to now act as resistance so I'm looking for 10350s as the as the key area, and I'm looking for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side. And certainly what I'll be thinking about will be a retest of the, let's just get up into this area the minimum target will be a 50% retracement versus that area. So again, thinking in terms always want to be thinking in terms of the risk reward parameters for for the setup. Sorry, not for the setup for the actual trade that you know there are plenty there are setups coming all the time. But what you've got to do is you've got to learn to pick the setups that give the best risk reward parameters in terms of your account so in terms of this setup here. That's the validation point there. So, even just even if we trade just that 50% retracement that's still a 2.3 to one risk reward you could probably get that stop a bit tighter actually but got to see how we trade when we test that area but if we get up in there and gets rejection, then we will be looking on the short side in terms of the euro dollar sterling sterling is just testing. We have actually just come shy of it so what I'm always looking for just so you can visually see these three way corrected moves. So we've got it there we tested the quality objective. Now, if we can get a reversal here bullish reversal, then we want to be in on the long side, and the initial target for this move which I seem to be a corrective move for now will be an equality objective versus the swing structure. So that gives us a target now of 121 89 and just about there we have trend line resistance but it's going to be our first objective. And our invalidation point is going to be the one 1848. So again, ample opportunity here in terms of 4.23 to one risk returns. So I mean, this is the type of set up to really want to be tracking for and this one may develop into the into the next four hours. Dolly yen. I am looking for the dollar yen to pull back here. We have this first leg to the downside and potential three way corrective move here. So I'm looking for the dollar yen to test into 136 90s. And from there, I'm going to be looking to engage on the long side, and I've got to first stop up to the upside at 140. And again, we can tighten that to use the high volume mode to lean against. So again, 3.6 to one risk reward in that set up. You can see as well that in terms of the, in terms of the setups with respect to these risk war parameters, you don't, you only need to be right four out of 10 times to be a profitable trader using this type of risk war parameters and strategy. So, you know, it doesn't, it takes a wet like I was saying at the beginning, once you have that professional trading mindset and you just fully accept that you're, you're playing the probabilities. And you, you release that fear of one fear of missing out fear of loss, and you actually just start trading the market and focus more upon your risk reward ratios, and this becomes an infinitely easier game. Here. Yeah, the Aussie yen potentially here. So, again, we're looking for a pullback here into 488 as an opportunity to engage on the long side, and the target for that move is going to be up into these prior highs here. Giving us the and the weekly projected range resistance, 96 sixties is the is the target there on that Aussie yen. And also, just care, just short of our target zone, but any pullback now into this trend line support again I'm looking for an upside extension back into range resistance here. 86 79 monthly projected range resistance and weekly projected range resistance just above. So, again, we check our risk reward parameters, we can probably look at tightening that we use the 131 extension is to stop there. So that can give us a six to one risk reward for that setup. Aussie, let's check in there. Aussie testing its quality objective here so we get a bullish reversal here then I'm going to be looking to, to be long the Aussie. And what we look for here will be a move up into the value area high as the first target. So we'll see if we can get an ideal you want to close it back through the 50% tradesman that last candle. But so we'll see how that plays out close of the camera on the game. The risk warding down that 3.3 to one risk reward. Kiwi kiwi dollar testing its equality objective. I'm going to be looking at this screen in seconds. Is that better? Can everyone see the screen? Why in the chat box? Not sure what I can do about that. I'm calling the levels anyway, but the test here was this swing structure, giving us the 61 83. So we're looking at the reversal pattern here. And again, we'll be looking on the long side. I'm targeting a move up into the 63 30s will be the objective there. So we're going to get a close really back through the value area high here to engage on the long side looking for a break of the trend line resistance. And then the first stop the first target will be the weekly projected range resistance 62 81 is the key area. By that stage, certainly either taking half a position off or you're moving your stops to entry gold. Now gold is setting up a very interesting scenario here. Let me just pull up the show you this on another chart quickly. So you can see this is this is the level I've been waiting for goals test. I'm just shy about 1663 so that's the quality objective versus the swing structure here and here. So that gives us that target zone. So going back to the trading timeframe. So potentially going to get an outside reversal here. We've got momentum divergence which is active. So gold could give us an opportunity on the long side. So this gold trade is something I would actually be looking to hold as a position trade so necessarily be looking to to an initial target really what I was doing is scaling into this position to hold it for a longer, a longer term trade because this could this could be completing a very significant corrective pattern on that weekly timeframe that could see gold potentially trading to new highs over the coming months. So this is going to be one that I'm going to be monitoring as a position trade. Equally we have the gold miners, GDX, they're also setting up as well. And if we can get, can get this reversal going today in terms of gold in the metal, we anticipate we'll see a reversal in the miners and again this ample opportunity on the upside. So I'm going to be thinking about loans back through 2640. This is the ETF, GDX, and we'd be using the lows as I stop but I wouldn't be using a target as such because I don't, I'd be anticipating a very significant reversal. We've got some big cycles in play in terms of gold and the gold miners 60 and 90 a gang cycles. So I see a potentially significant opportunity in gold and the gold miners. Let's check in with crude oil. Well, we have actually got potential inverse head and shoulders here in terms of crude so let's see what we can do. And really we'd want to see a reversal back through the highs of this candle to engage in terms of crude. So there isn't a set up for me there at the moment that will work from a risk reward perspective. And this is what I mean, although there's a pattern there a potential pattern of an inverse head and shoulders, I can't think the risk reward doesn't doesn't match my, my profile so I just pass on trade. We're going to test the trend line support here 22,348. So this could be interesting. If we get a hold here and a bullish reversal, then I can see an opportunity in terms of Bitcoin. See, we use that value area high. Initially what I've been looking for the 25,000 as the next upside objective there so just draw an interview. We're looking for a move that holds and that tests and holds the trend line support and we're looking for a move up into 25,000 as the next upside objective so again nice four to one risk reward ratio there in terms of Bitcoin. And that concludes the setups that I'm tracking at the moment anyway I hope, I hope that's been useful for you. There are a number of opportunities here that are very close to fruition. What I'll do is I'm going to post a couple of links into the chat here. One is for the tick mill futures group if you want to join that you just send a request and I'll add you into that group and you get that daily trade plan for the SMP 500 or the e-mini futures. I'll post a bunch of other setups and institutional research in there. And the other thing I'll post is the trading view counts. You can follow along. I post setups in their daily three to five opportunities that I'm actively tracking. And that said, are there any questions. Equally if you don't have a question and end in the chat boxes is useful. So I know I've done a reasonable job of explaining things. Anyone like me to take a look at an instrument that I haven't covered in the presentation and just type it into the chat box and I'll pull up a chart and see if there's anything setting up. I can't see anything coming through at the moment. Okay guys, well look, I'm going to wrap this session up here. I hope to see some of you join the Facebook group, receive my daily SMP 500 trade plan, and we will reconvene at the same time next week. And as always traders plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next time. Thanks very much.