 All right, it's a great pleasure to be here. I'm trying something new today, because I get bored of the computer. Even though it's an Apple, it still gets boring. So I'm gonna switch to something else from Apple. I'm gonna use the iPad to present, and so forgive me if there's a technical glitch. It may well happen. This is one of my personal heroes, Marshall McLuhan, who I'm sure you know from the 70s. If he was as old as I am, you would know him. And he also said the medium is the message. But he said something a few, a couple of really interesting things, including that he says when it's about technology, it's the framework that changes not the picture. So on that note, social media is a picture. That's just one of the pictures, for example. The framework is that we're moving to what we call a networked society. It's much bigger than social media, which I'll talk about in a second. So it's really a great pleasure to be here. I've been in Norway several times, and it's a beautiful country. I live in Switzerland, but I also lived in America for 17 years. I went to school in Boston, not to MIT, thankfully, to music school. That makes me very qualified to talk about the future. But if I speak too quickly, there's waves, okay? Also, we're taking questions afterwards mostly, but if you have an urgent question, please feel free to just lift your hand and fire away or an objection, you know. I can't speak Norwegian, I'm sorry, but I have to stick with the English. Also, I'm sharing today, if somebody has an iPad, you can do that basically all day. There's a network called Cloud FTP, which is my own little server, and you can log to that network and download any of my books, my presentations, and this presentation. You can download that sometime today if you have an iPad or an iPhone or any connected device. Just go to the Cloud FTP. Okay, I'm gonna give this a try here. All right, it's actually working. So, first question is, what is a futurist? I mean, many of you may be thinking, okay, a futurist is somebody who can predict the future. Clearly, that's not the case. I don't make predictions. Our job is really as simple as this, which is to, sorry, to be able to figure out what four sites we can find from our clients. We're looking at the next three to five years, usually. There's 25 people in my company who are concerned with just collecting what's happening around the world, and we help our clients to reinvent. Our clients are the likes of technology companies, Google, Nokia, Siemens, but also oil companies, other companies, media companies, brands, to essentially do all that stuff that most people don't have time for while they're busy working. If you're on Twitter, I'm G Leonhard on Twitter. If you're Twittering, you can also ask questions on Twitter if you want. And so this is my topic today, which is basically a bunch of taglines. Try to fill that with some life. And I wanna give you a short video to get started with. I think this is an interesting take. You know, a couple of days ago, I was looking for a way to describe our challenge, which is to keep up with technology and with life. You know, I have two kids, they're 17 and 22, and I always say, if I want to know about the future, I just take a look at my kids, and I see what the future is, you know, how hard it is to keep up with that. So this video kind of shows a challenge. You don't need sound with this, it's pretty self-explanatory. So here's a guy, you know, he thinks the iPad is a chopping board because he's never used one before. And this kind of represents, you know, I don't do that, you know. So represents the challenge that we're up to, you know, for us, it's totally clear that it's not a chopping board, right? So for many of us, technology becomes completely normal, but if you're talking to 15-year-olds, for example, for them, the television is a button on their mobile phone. And music, for example, is not a CD. Music is a click on Spotify or YouTube. It's completely different for us. So we have to learn how to understand this, we have to learn how to pay attention. So our job, you know, we talked about this this morning, everybody should have a part of their time just listening to the future. And this is crucial for companies. You know, many companies that are big companies have a hard time understanding what happens because they don't have time to listen. So you should reserve three to 5% of your time for listening and some people say for wasting, you know, for playing with things. And this is, for example, Twitter makes a really good tool for wasting time. It's also very useful to learn things. So that's one of my first things, you know, spend three to 5% of your time on looking at new stuff and listening to new stuff. There has been research recently from the economist saying what's happening in terms of disruption and clearly around the world people feel really disrupted by what's going on economically, politically, but also of course in terms of technology. And this chart was very interesting that about 47% of people surveyed and I think there were about 50,000 or so in all around the world. It says the vertical market in which my organization operates will have little resemblance in 2020 to how it looks today. So half the people are thinking that their market in eight years is gonna be completely different. Completely different in many ways, what they sell, how they sell it and so on and so on. So if you're looking at history, for example, Microsoft had about 25 good years where they were dominant players, then came Google in a way replaced some of those things and Google really only had eight years because now Google is already being questioned. The next big thing after Google is Facebook. Now Facebook is already being questioned and they go on public next week. But Facebook only had three good years and now Facebook will be continued to be there but somebody else will be the next one who only has one year. So the speed is just mind boggling, the speed of what happens around the world. So I say in many cases our futures will be completely different than what they look like today. I grew up, and this is not me actually as you can tell, but I grew up in this world and the world of where the car was a status symbol. Many of you did as well, I can see. And that's maybe still the case in Norway and in Switzerland where I live. But by and large around the world, the car is stopping to be a status symbol that everybody must have. And in India where they've tried to make the car a status symbol with a tata, didn't work because you can't drive anywhere. It's always jammed, everything. So nobody bought one. So now the biggest thing in car, the biggest trend around the world in the car business is car sharing. Whether you share like a zipped car, like you do in America, many places, sharing your own car by borrowing it to others through the internet. And all the car companies are now looking at car sharing services and the car makers are looking at electric cars, of course, but also self-driving cars. Cars that don't have a driver. You just, you go in and it drives itself. Now the business of selling electric cars and the business of selling self-driving cars is not at all like the business of selling Ferraris or BMWs. You can imagine what that will do to the car companies. In fact, many car companies are now looking at building wind turbines, not just cars, because it's similar technology with electric engines. So basically the future could be very well nothing like today in the energy business that's quite clear, right? I mean, no matter what you think about climate change, global warming, the energy business in 10 years will be completely reinvented. Not to say that will be carbon neutral, that will be a little bit too optimistic, but it will be reinvented. So we're living a time where our children are unlikely to enjoy the Ferrari. Not because they don't have money, but because it just doesn't matter that much anymore. They've met us here in Norway more because it's much less people so you have to have a car to get around. But in many countries that's no longer the case. This guy here, Spock, he had a device on Star Trek called the Tri-Corder. And the Tri-Corder is when you're dumped on some lonely planet and you run into a monster and you get hurt, you use the Tri-Corder to get well, it's like a doctor in a box. Okay, now the Tri-Corder of course was science fiction but now there's a company in California that's running a thing called the X-Price. And they give you $30 million to a company that can build a Tri-Corder based on a mobile device. And this device will prick your finger for blood, you can cough into it, and it attaches to your pulse and it will make an analysis. The goal is for this machine to analyze what your disease is quicker than a doctor and of course remotely. And this is a real device now, it's coming out next year. 30 million dollars has already been allocated to build this device. Whether you believe or not, it can be better than a doctor which is questionable, certainly would be useful to have this device when you think about using that device in Africa. So innovation and disruption is gonna be mind-boggling because of technology. And that will pretty much be true, for example, you will have very soon automatic translation. So you can speak in German, it comes out in Chinese. It's a little bit harder for Norwegian but give it three to five years, we will be able to automatically translate what you're saying in Norwegian to any language, any of 25 languages. So what that will do to our future is quite clear. You know, there's a whole bunch of disruptors that were mentioned here, I'm sure you're familiar with many of them. If not, maybe you can just download the report, it's the best way you download it, is just look for RICO, R-I-C-O-H, an agent of change report. I wasn't involved, but it's a great report. So the report talks about all the stuff that's happening with disruption, like cheap smartphones. And we're talking about really cheap, not just cheap, like five dollars. You know, this thing here costs $62 to make. We pay 800. An Android smartphone device already costs $10. So just wait until three billion people all around the world have those smart devices going mobile, looking at your stock index or being your friend on Facebook on mobile devices. Business-oriented social networks, data mining, cloud computing, all that tech stuff that you get really bored of, right? But this world, the next five years, Facebook going public next week, you know, on the basis of all these trends, virtual reality, augmented reality, and so on and so on, should be quite interesting what happens to see in the next couple of years. So one of the things I want to propose to you, no matter what business you're in, you have really only one choice. Either somebody is gonna come up and disrupt what you're doing, or you have to disrupt what somebody else is doing. And this is really a crucial survival strategy. If you look at the last 10 years, in terms of what happened in successful companies, every single company, if it was successful, it has disrupted. Google, eBay, Twitter, Skype, Spotify, Netflix, Hulu, you know, all those companies that do different things. Facebook, of course, has disrupted the process of socializing of being friends and parenthesis, yeah? Whether it's fake friends or not. So that is really sort of our choice. So if you are the car business, you have to figure out how to replace the car. Airlines are getting into virtual travel, like holographics, 3D environments, telepresence. So that's the best strategy for your future. And I think, of course, if you're in the oil business, which some of you are, you already know this, otherwise you wouldn't be investing in renewable energy. That's like shooting your own photo, eating your own photo, rather, you could say. So that is a strategy of disrupting or being disrupted, right? And along with that goes the question of whether you can be a market maker. I mean, again, look at the success, and I think Olaf's talking, hopefully, well, I had in this direction as well, you know, to make a market, you have to take a risk. You have to do something different. Many of you may have a Kindle. Who has a Kindle? Let me see who has a Kindle, yeah? Okay, good. Okay, Amazon, Jeff Bezos did not invent the Kindle because people wanted it. They didn't know what it was. How could they want something they don't know? How can we go to our customers and say, what do you want? Tell me so I can invent the future, of course I have. If Henry Ford would have asked people what they wanted, Henry Ford, the car maker, right? They would have said, give me a faster horse, right? A better horse that runs longer doesn't need to eat whatever, right? But they wouldn't have said, make a car. They don't know what a car is. So Amazon made a market and Amazon with the Kindle now sells more electronic books than printed books. And you know if you're in the print business, if you're a magazine, you know where this is going, right? We're going to drop papers sooner or later except for special purposes. There's still a good purpose for paper. I love paper. I love books. But it won't be economic on the same scale than it has been so far. And that's really quite clear. So this is the Google self-driving car I wrote. I'm actually inside, you can't see, but I wrote this car about 10 weeks ago in San Francisco and it drives by itself. You sit and you can read or eat or whatever you want to do there, you know? And it drives perfectly in the traffic by itself. So the question is, can you be a market maker? There's two things that I want to set forth here, right? I call this the toxic assumption, the poison, right? The poison that we have in many companies today because of economic restrictions and economic obsession with growth is that we are here every day looking at the minimum risk and the maximum profit, which by and large is not a bad idea. But if we do too much of this, we'll never invent anything. And because we're always looking here at this cartoon says, you know, corporate meeting, we have considered every potential risk except the risk of avoiding the risk. And that's so true today. Many of my companies are very, their clients are very large companies like phone companies with 100,000 employees. Their primary objective is to stay where they are, avoid all the risks and just try to get by. And they're the ones who die extremely quickly. 10 years ago I worked with the music industry, it's pretty much dead today because that has been their strategy. The music industry has shrunk 72% in 10 years. And not because we're bad consumers, you know, because we don't want to pay. Not true, won't get into that. The other thing is avoiding risk, the other one is the return on investment. The strategy of getting return on investment, we have to think about a new word here and I call this return on involvement. How much do customers like you? How much do they want to buy from you? How much are they talking to you? This is obviously a crucial thing. So especially in Norway, I did some research on this and this is sort of a summary of what's happening. In this country, technology is your number one in technology penetration as far as the internet goes. I think the status two years old may have changed a little bit, but pretty far ahead of it. So a connected country, 39% of homes contain one or two devices. Social media is used by hospitals. Facebook pages, LinkedIn pages, Twitter hospitals are presented themselves in social media. In Norway, there's about currently 14 million people in LinkedIn, all of you are on LinkedIn, right? Who's on LinkedIn? Everyone, see? Okay, eight years ago, LinkedIn, when I joined, had 7,000 users. And everybody was saying, why do you want to be on LinkedIn? That's a stupid idea, connecting with strangers. Now, everybody wants to connect with strangers because everybody's looking for the next thing to do. And for resources. Recruiting, for example, was taken over by LinkedIn. So we're moving into a society that, the lead investor in Facebook, Kleiner Perkins, has called social, local, mobile, solo mo. That's a very good term. Social, local, mobile. It's a society that's mostly mobile, locally connected, for example, by checking into Facebook or Foursquare and socialize. So you can clearly see that this is a network society we're going into. This is an interesting slide. Basically what the slide is saying is that people are using the internet and data more and more all the time and ever cheaper. The cost of storage is dropping towards zero. I mean, remember when that terabyte of a drive used to cost 1,000 euros or so? Now it's watch-free, I mean, five euros. CPU cost, bandwidth cost, network access. Basically, clear, this is beyond Moore's law. If you know Moore's law, the exponential curve, it's much quicker than that. And just yesterday I was announced that officially now, more people are using mobile devices and playing with apps and doing stuff on the mobile than are surfing the regular internet. So if you're doing a strategy for your company, it's clearly mobile is first. Mobile access to the web is quickly becoming number one. Computers are going the way of the work machine, the workplace, not the way of consumption of things. And that points to one of my central theories and unfortunately it's not from me. Somebody else has mentioned it before, like most things that I do. I found this and it's a very good summary of this is that the data that we generate here, our Facebook data, our Google data, our personal information, that becomes the data of the oil of the internet. In fact, there are oil companies who are looking to switch from the oil business into the data business because this will be a business of trillions of dollars. Imagine five billion people connected to the internet in three to five years on high-speed devices, exchanging information, doing things. All that data that they produce, what they like, where they send it to, who they are connected to, is a dream come true for people who want to sell stuff. And selling stuff, marketing, called marketing, and advertising, is a trillion dollar business. One trillion dollars is spent on advertising. Promotion, your brand, and so on. So in many ways there will be wars fought over data just like there were wars, or are wars fought over oil because we can't agree on who's supposed to do what and who has allowance to use my data. But we're also selling our data. For example, if you use Google or Gmail, many of you I'm sure are Gmail users, or Android, Gmail is using my data to sell me stuff with the ads. Google makes $3.2 billion a month based on data. Google doesn't own anything, they don't sell anything with few exceptions, like the Google Drive, not free. But by and large, data is the central part. Some of these figures, you know, this is the world economic format, it's clearly showing you look how much data is going to be generated, you know, under 29.6 exabytes, whatever that is, sounds big. And the devices connected to the internet, Eriksson said there's gonna be 50 billion devices connected. Devices, for example, my car, all cars are connected to the internet. I mean, that's already true for Audi 8 or something, but it's gonna be a standard. Devices. So when you drive into the city, the other guys who are on the Audi network or Toyota network, they can tell you where the parking spots are available just by driving by and hitting a button. Electric bikes connected to the internet, already true. So basically here, you know, that is a huge business, of course, if we're looking in this direction, then we have this problem that we may be sort of bleeding our data, you know, we may be telling more than we want. Privacy is sort of like a human right, you could say. But on the internet, it doesn't really exist in the same way. On the internet, we have the reverse, which I call publicity. We're much more interested in being public because when we are public, we can talk to people and we can do something together. So the reason that we are on Facebook or LinkedIn is not to be private. I mean, otherwise, we wouldn't go there. So you wouldn't go to a bar to hang out if you don't want to talk to anyone, and then you just stay at home. So Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, these mechanisms are about being public. So this is a huge challenge, for example, for kids. Because kids, you know, talking about real kids, not us kids, right? Kids from, say, 12 to 18, right? They're very interested in making friends and finding each other, for example, but they don't know what it means to be naked on the internet, which can create a big problem. So this will be subject to many discussions. But suffice to say, because I don't have much time to talk about this in detail, suffice to say that if you want to benefit from what the web has to offer in terms of social connectivity, you have to be a bit more public. And you can't expect people to connect with you, but then when I go to your LinkedIn profile, I see your name and then I see dot dot dot and nothing else. I don't see any information. You wouldn't believe how many people check for you in your LinkedIn profile before you have a meeting. You probably do that too. You go to meet somebody in a different company, you check them out on LinkedIn to get some background information. Now if that person has the name and just dot dot dot and nothing else, you're suspicious, right or wrong. But if it can't be found at all, if you are like a vice president for a company or so, and you can't be found on the website or LinkedIn or so, then you wonder if you really want to talk. Or if you don't have a blog as a company, people are wondering if you want to have a conversation. So that of course we can discuss later in the panel discussion. It's quite the topic and there's lots of money in data. So I would like you to consider whether some of your business could use data as a driver of business. Clearly this is becoming a major asset for companies like Google and Facebook. So there's a sociogram basically saying that we have moved in our society, whether we like it or not, this is not really reversible. We used to be in a society like this where most power and money was centralized. So big corporations, big banks, big government and so on. And then we moved to with the internet to this sort of model to where there was more decentralized and now we're essentially in the mix of those two. We're completely networked and still a little bit centralized. For example, if you follow what goes on with YouTube, there isn't really a single person around the world that doesn't know YouTube. You can find music, you can find whatever you want on there and of course funny things as well. YouTube hasn't a very short time replaced MTV in 24 months. Because MTV is here, right? MTV makes the playlist and YouTube makes the playlist. So being a network business is becoming crucial and basically this is the operating paradigm of what is falsely called social media. I call this a social OS, the social operating system. Which means that you may be a big company and you may be sort of the middle of things but now we're all forced to sort of connect with others and become more interdependent. So entertainment company of the past like Disney, they made the films, they owned the films, they distributed the films, they call the shots, basically they do all of it. Today, entertainment companies like Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, Intel now, they are networked players. That's a very big difference. For example, journalism, some of you may be from newspapers, is the same model, is that we're not the only ones creating stuff but we're connecting to others and curating them. So the function of a journalist is actually much more needed because there's so much more noise. But we're not the only ones who are going to distribute smart interviews or content, there's many other people out there. In fact, you could argue that the blogs have become part of media in general, looking like this. So, this is Norway by the way, now this is hard to identify here. And hard to read. But you guys are already in this game of social, right? Social is the new online. When we used to say 10 years ago, are you online or not? That will be a stupid question today. That's like saying, do you drink water? So, people are online. And now the next question is, are you social and parenthesis, can you be found in social places? Whatever that is, not necessarily just Facebook. So, personal finances and shopping, 95% of web users navigate the internet. Women, rules, social media in Norway. That's why we have a lot of women here as well, it's quite clear, that's the case. Older users on Facebook, it's not the kids. It's not the kid and it's not just for personal fun, it is for business. People are using those places for business. The biggest growth in Facebook is between 30 and 55 years old. And devices like this, they're not for kids to chat or so, they're for older people also to watch television, right? I mean, they're devices that people use. So, Forrester Research and HBR, Harvard Business Review, published a paper on this, what they call the social era of business. And that means that basically you're opening up to people from the outside, connecting with others, doing things like communities and co-creation and stuff. And basically what that means is that, you're no longer keeping everything inside if your brand becomes a publisher. For example, you can see all the top 1,000 companies around the world, they all have TV shows. They publish stuff on YouTube. The CEO talking, the product videos, and videos are a huge thing. And I would say basically this will become as normal as the fact that we have email. So many people today, if you would say to somebody, you know, I don't use email, just call me, they would think you're crazy. So not having social tools, not having open marketplaces and all this stuff that we see today as the early thing, that will become a total standard. And for commercial reasons, right? Not for reasons of ideology. And IBM is calling this, you know, the social business agenda. I won't go into this in the detail, but basically, you know, gaining social trust, engaging through experiences, networking the business process. Big pharma companies like Novartis and Eli Lilly, they are already crowdsourcing from the outside of the company chemical formulas to solve some of the issues in their medications. They're going out to platforms like Innocentif and saying, can you contribute a piece of this formula that we just can't seem to crack if you do, we'll give you XYZ dollars to solve this problem. They're using crowdsourcing as a mechanism. And so this whole debate is basically, maybe all of a sudden can help with this. How do you navigate the social US? As a small company, as a big company, as a university, as a media company, as a newspaper, it's different for everyone. For example, if you run a bank, your primary concern, of course, is security. And if you run a university, it's not so much about security, it's about people collaborating and spreading the word about your offering. So it's different for each company. How do you navigate this? Well, let me say one thing, it's really that you should not get involved with anything social, like Facebook or so, if your company wants to stay inside. If you're not interested in opening up and really in the conversation and in questioning what you do, don't get involved, because that's what's gonna happen. But then again, I was saying earlier, we don't really have a choice. It's not that we can just stay uninvolved and be happy. So social media then is really not appetizing. If your company has social media and you have a marketing department and you say that social media belongs to marketing and you're in deep trouble, it has nothing to do with marketing. Social media is about your brand. It's about how you connect and how you open up. It's appetizing, it's a little bit, but it's mostly about content, right, being part of this flow. I wanted to show this video, but for some reason it didn't transfer. This is FedEx, video from four weeks ago. A home security camera filmed this guy delivering a computer to a customer. He didn't ring the bell, he just threw the monitor over the fence into the garden and left. And he was filmed in the whole act of delivering, which took about 20 seconds, right, this truck is right there. He took off and just threw it over there. And so this video was put up on YouTube by the guy who received the monitor, who was broken, which was broken, right? So he put up on YouTube within about eight hours. He got over 800,000 users. And the next eight hours, he's got 14 million people watching this video. The stock went down 4% from this, even though of course FedEx people don't, they're not all doing this. Basically what's happening here is that there's radical transparency expectations. And we may not actually like this because clearly if it's too transparent then we can't keep our secrets. Everybody has secrets. And I would say that some secrets have to be kept, obviously. But which ones? If your company is in a business to where it's important to keep secrets, I think many of the secrets that are on the surface will come out. You can see in the airline business there's no secret left. You know what the pricing strategy is. You can compare prices. You can see all the stuff that they're doing and they've become really transparent. But basically most of our business will become utterly transparent. So you explain what you want. You admit that you make mistakes. That's basically what's gonna happen. And this is tough. So I mean clearly do we have a choice? I don't think we do. I mean look at this scene. Cameras, iPhones, iPads, Android phones everywhere. I mean in China where it's really restricted every single person is recording video all the time. So how are you gonna hide anything? I mean how are you gonna hide what happens with your company? It's impossible. Your best policy would be to just embrace it as much as you can. And if there's a mistake then you fix it. I mean best example is still Dell computers. How they took in this whole hate, you know, the Dell hell and they turned that around just by owning the conversation. BP three years ago. Owning the conversation would have saved a lot of activation. Of course the problem wasn't really fixable but owning the conversation is half the work or three quarters of the work is owning the conversation, being part of the conversation. In fact, you know, car companies are very good at this because there's many issues that you just can't fix as quickly as a customer wants you to. It's not possible to just switch, you know, to create immediate change. But then having just the conversation in public quiet down most of the things. It's basically giving people room. So I wanna talk about convergence. You know, when I ran internet companies in the late 90s we were all thinking tomorrow we're going to watch television on these devices. Music will move into the cloud and we'll be able to play any song. All that we have today goes too early. But today you're very lucky because we actually do have these things today. We have the convergence of all the really important stuff. Start with television and the internet. I mean, television and the internet is becoming the same thing. There won't be a single television left that you can't go on the internet with. And very soon you can speak to your television. So using the new Apple TV that comes out you can make voice commands. And you can look at your Gmail or you can look at Flickr or so while you're watching a movie. That sounds geeky, but this will be as normal as having a mobile phone. Even for old people and especially for old people because it's voice controlled. The computer and the mobile, there will be no such thing as a difference between online and offline. Basically, you'll always be online. That's a scary proposition. I mean, you're always online now, I'm sure. But this will be in such a way to where anything that you want to do, check your health records, make a video call with your doctor, download a movie, talk to Olaf Stoppen. You can do all that instantly because you're always online. There's all conversions of computers and search and social. So this is really exciting times. But for your strategy as companies, really this means one thing, right? You have to be convergent quickly. You have to adopt these trends before somebody else upstates you on this. But basically this whole idea of integrating social and mobile is part of it. I could verge the example for example, include the Tweet Mirror, which is very popular now in the US. It's a place to wear in a boutique or shop. You can put on some clothes and then you can go into this box and you can Twitter. You can post the picture of yourself with this new dress and then your friends will remotely advise you to buy it or not. This sounds like something I would never do, but this is extremely popular. There's a thing called the face box. I think it does something similar on some island in the North Sea, right? That you can post your picture. So you can connect with people instantly in a social network. The television with widgets. The Samsung TV already does this. And next, I don't know, some of you may be from universities, is digital learning. This alone is several trillion dollar business because clearly what's happening is that the waste of paper and shipping books and physical embodiments of information is going away. And the value of creative information and people being able to learn together to create new solutions is increasing. This is why, for example, MIT in Boston has published all of the courseware and all of the information, all the textbooks for free on the internet for the last five years. It's called the MIT Open Courseware Project. And many universities in Norway also have free information as well as in the UK it's quite popular. But when you do that, people actually want to come and meet. They want to actually attend. So the information is not replacing the experience. It's the opposite. More people want to come, the more they can get from you. It's like free music and concerts. So the care and academy, if you haven't tried it, you should give it a try. The care and academy has over 5,000 lessons in mathematics. My kids are using this. It's mind boggling. You watch this video three minutes about an algebra problem and immediately even I understand how it works. I mean, it's a great tool for learning. Imagine what happens when you have this in the neighborhood of several tens of millions of short videos from people who are donating them because they're teachers. Imagine all the stuff that we can learn there. Of course, you won't get an MBA this way. But there's already schools that give you an MBA this way. So if you're in that business, fantastic, right? That's basically very hopeful for all of us, I think, in the future. That brings me to a crucial problem. The free problem. This is a paradigm change challenge on the internet. A lot of people have talked about, for example, with digital music, is the fact that people don't want to pay anymore. I mean, pay for content like books or movies or something. But I tell you something, it's just flat out not true. The amount of people that have paid for content has steadily increased. In fact, it's exploding on the internet. But it has to be a really competitive offer. We're no longer paying for the lame stuff we got before. And when I say lame, I mean, for example, CDs. I mean, why would we pay 20 euros or whatever? Forced a deal with 12 songs. Well, we know the artist is gonna get 30 cents. And the rest is spent in the distribution process. So because it becomes transparent, people are expecting more value. For example, what is working in the US as an example, 25 million people are subscribing to a movie service called Netflix, which I'm sure you know. $10 a month. You can watch any movie you want streaming over Netflix. And you have similar thing here with Vioplayer, I think, services like this. So if you're in the media business, it's really a substantial rule change that you have to offer more value and you have to be better than free, which is possible. So the common term for this is called freemium. Freemium is the combination of free and premium, which is not new. It's just on the internet more obvious. LinkedIn, you guys are LinkedIn. Who's paying for LinkedIn? Let me see who's paying. One guy, I am paying. That's all. You guys are cheap. I just kidding. Okay, LinkedIn has 250 million users. It's free, right? It's freemium. Hello? It's freemium, which means that you can use it for free. You don't have to pay. Okay. This is what happens when you use stuff the first time. Sorry about that. Okay. So basically, whoop, I don't wanna show you my emails here. I guess my computer got bored with my speech, so decided to interrupt me. Okay, so basically what's happening with LinkedIn is we're going in for free. If LinkedIn would have said to us, you know, join us for $10. All right, we would have said, oh, it doesn't make sense. But once we're inside of LinkedIn, we're realizing if I could email all these people more and I could promote whatever I'm doing, it could be benefits, so I'm willing, like you over there, to spend $20 on that a month. And for LinkedIn, the fact that I can do this is just a flag in the database. It says, go ahead, email, and it's $20. Last year, LinkedIn made $485 million with a free model. And there's only one guy here and myself participating in the paid model. So the conversion doesn't have to be very big, right? But clearly, this is a winning model. And this goes for Evernote, it goes for Spotify, it goes for Skype, you know, your old Skype users. Who's paying for Skype? Paying for Skype. There you go, that's already much further along. You pay to call somebody or Skype, odd number, whatever it is, right? So the freemium model is gonna be a winning model. Also, real quick about media, because some of you may be interested in this, right? The newspaper business is a great example for how this works. Let's take the word news, put that over here, and take the word paper, put that over there. The word paper is becoming a bad word. For economic reasons, for environmental reasons, for technology reasons. People are still interested in news and good news and quality news and all of these things. There's no doubt about that. But they're not that interested very soon in this country as well about paper. You don't actually need the two together. So what happens, for example, if you're, this is a chart from my futurist friend, Ross Dawson, if you're looking at this, there's like a hundred reasons why I would pay for news. And some of those are filtering the community of the other readers. Personalization, flipboard, for example, does that. Relevance, calmness, novelty, reputation of the writer. In Western countries, we are a lot more rich than we are time poor. We have more money than time in most countries. So we're interested in saving time, which means that we pay for extra added values. So the future of media is not to sell the news, but to sell the added values. And that's something we have to get our heads around. For example, telephone companies have the same issues, operators, mobile operators. It's not about making a phone call or having a SIM card. It's about all the extra stuff I can do. It's the added values. And I think this is true for a lot of things that we're seeing today in media. So this leads me also to one important point, and that is quite simply, is that we can no longer live in these silos. So for example, in many companies, we have these silos saying, you're the marketing guys, you're the product guys, you're the R&D guys, whatever, right? We live in these silos, won't work. It won't work because now we have to figure out what to do that goes across the silos. For example, Nike Plus, the running shoe that connects to the internet was the biggest innovation in Nike and nothing to do with the shoe. So the chip connects to your iPod, the iPod connects to the web and you can share your running data, which is crazy, people are doing it. 8 million people are doing it. So how to do that, of course, is a challenge. And there's another thing, because I know we have lots of energy companies here, research from Nielsen from last week, a little bit hard to read here, but Nielsen has figured out that basically companies that really care, actually care, will do better, even if they're more expensive. Companies that are responsible, sustainable, that care about all of us, not about their own money the whole time, they do better. And this is the threat in Google, right? If Google doesn't show us that they care, we're going to dump them. And the same goes for Facebook. So, for example, here, this research shows that people are, consumers around the world are younger, they're greener, and they're willing to pay more to do the right thing. It sounds idealistic, right? But it's actually true in most countries in Europe. For example, if you're looking at this spiral over here, which of these causes do you think that companies should support? There's many. And you can download the paper to see the rest. But number one is that companies should ensure environmental sustainability. That's 66% of all the people questioned. I'll give you something to think about in terms of how you do that and how you demonstrate this. But one of my clients, Unilever, they're procuring, I don't know, $60 billion worth of stuff a year. Now they have to think about how they're procuring, because when they buy a million liters of palm oil, they have a lot of influence. And now they have to think about other factors and money. Goes back to what I said in the beginning. I'll skip this because, all right, so it comes down to this, right? Comes down to trust. Your customers, my customers, all of stop and customers will give us business because they trust us, not because we're the cheapest, which is a benefit, but not a reason. Not necessarily because we're the best, because for some reason, I think we're the right people. Car buyers has already been quite clearly analyzed in the last couple of years. People buy a car strictly 98% based on trust of the brand. The rest is all just extra stuff. Airlines, same thing. So it's all about trust. I think this is a very interesting point where brands are going direct for that reason. Facebook pages, iPhone apps, websites, going direct is the new normal. I mean, if you see Starbucks, the coffee company, do you have Starbucks in Norway? You have Starbucks here, right? You don't? Okay, you're lucky then. Not very good coffee. But Starbucks has found out that every Facebook friend, everybody that likes Starbucks on Facebook, drinks twice as much coffee at Starbucks. So the value of a person that likes Starbucks means twice as much likely that you're going to go and buy coffee. And this has been referred to just recently with the guy who works with me as Lyconomics, the economy of being liked. Now imagine a bank, an insurance company. Pretty hard to like your bank. I mean, we need the bank, but we wouldn't really like them. We accept that they're there, but it's really hard to like companies who are not, say, MTV or Facebook or Google or iPhone or whatever, right? It's hard to like those more corporate things. But now it comes down that everybody wants to be liked, right? And this is why most brands are becoming publishers. If you're not a publisher with your bank, you have to become a publisher. Toyota went out and said they're giving away a hundred cars for good to non-profit organizations. There's a qualifying process, but they're giving these cars away. Pepsi has an idea called, Pepsi, I think it's called Idea Challenge. They've given away $260 million to people with ideas to make the world in parentheses, typical American, make the world a better place. But this is basically, whatever you want to suggest to Pepsi, they fund the kindergarten, they fund an iPhone app, they do all kinds of things, right? The refresh project, that's what it's called. Has resulted in many companies in America switching from Coke to Pepsi. Many hotels said, if Pepsi does this, it's cool, I'm switching from Coke to Pepsi. And nothing to do with the drink. So generating this kind of trust brands becoming publishers. Being liked is getting more important. I would say that basically if you're not liked in a digital network, if you're not liked as a company, or as a person, you might as well not exist. Because nobody's gonna talk to you. You can be disliked, that's also good, because people can see the balance between the likes and the dislikes, right? I mean, everybody makes mistakes, and you can be eventually disliked as well. But there has to be some sort of process for this. That's what Facebook I think is good for. When this book comes out by Rohit Bhagavad, take a look, it's called Likronomus, I think it's coming out in two weeks or so. I had nothing to do with it, it's just a really great, great concept. Then we have this, right? I mean, for all of us that are over 30, the idea of what's called now-ness is a mad idea. I mean, remember those days, 20 years ago, when we'd have to go to the post office and wait for two hours to post a letter? Or we call somebody, so we call the airline, we book a ticket, and we wait for 90 minutes and pay five times as much. That's all gone. Now we have electronic postal stamps that we can print out ourselves. So a very un-German thing to say, speed over perfection. This, of course, is not true for airline engines, for example. But for many of us, it means we have to respond quicker, we have to invent quicker, we have to move quicker, we have to take more risks, we have to be more open. And this is really quite difficult, especially in large companies. But speed, for example, this is the reason behind Twitter, of course. Twitter is the instrument of speed. For customer service in America has moved to 80%. People who are doing customer service has moved to Twitter. So if you have a problem with the airline, you send a tweet with the hashtag or the name of the company, and then they respond to you instantly, and everybody can see the entire stream of conversation. So if somebody says, you guys are really idiots, I hate you and whatever, you can respond on Twitter, everybody sees the conversation, and other users are actually jumping to the defense of these brands and saying you shouldn't say that, they're good guys and so on. So you can see the whole conversation. So think about that, I mean, Twitter isn't big in Norway quite yet, but it will happen. Some examples that you can't see for some reason came across quite that. So I'll show you the obvious. Energy companies, banks, sushi restaurants, using Twitter basically to promote their stuff. Now CNN, as I'm sure, if you watch CNN, if you should be so unlucky, they're using hashtags, which is basically like a way of finding stuff on Twitter, in the show, because it turns out, in most countries, the Western countries, over 40% of people who watch television are also using a tablet or a mobile device to do other things while they're watching TV. And that includes, for example, looking at the comments on the news show. So as I'm watching, I'm typing in here, at CNN break, and I take a look and see what people are saying about the news show and if they have another opinion. This is becoming normal, in parentheses. Imagine what that will do to our future, to all the, basically what I call the four screen future. And if you're like me, you feel overwhelmed with this saying, basically, I can't keep up with this. There's the computer, there's the TV, there's the tablet, there's the mobile phone, but basically that's our future. We have to figure out, as a brand, how are you gonna be present on all of those places? And number one is now, quickly, the mobile phone, because it controls the other places. So social and local. Think I have to wrap up really soon, right? I have still got a couple of minutes. Okay, so the Brian David, who's the futurist for Intel, really bright guy. He says, basically, what's happening, we have arrived at a place, almost. People expect any screen to be connected to the internet. Any screen, including the mirror, my eyeglasses, my contact lenses. I'm not kidding. It sounds like science fiction. Go to Japan. Forgot the name, what it's called, but you can go to dating places, you know, bars. Now you would never do that, but you can go to a bar for a date, and you can scan the face of the woman or the man that you're meeting, and you can see in the mobile phone, you can see the social network data superimposed over the person that you have. It's called augmented reality. And they think it's normal, right? So you're having a date, you're pulling up the profile, and it says, you know, she likes dogs, you don't like dogs, you move on. Right? I mean, augmented reality, a connected screen. I mean, you know, there's bus stops where you can download the newspaper. That's already normal. Like, in London, you can go to a bus stop and we'll give you the latest song from Britney Spears, by our Bluetooth. I mean, all these things are already happening. So connected screens will be huge, and then we have what's called gamification. I mean, things becoming game-like. If you want, you can call Facebook a game, right? Facebook is a bit of a game, you know, how many friends do I have? What are they saying about me? It's about reputation. You know, you can juggle Facebook and make it more like a game. And people like that part of Facebook, but it's quite serious game, in fact. But now we can do that with energy. There's a game mechanism that's called simple energy, just launched a couple of weeks ago, to where you can play a game with the neighbors who have what we call smart meters. You guys know what smart meters are? They're meters that meter your electricity and energy usage, and they monitor everything so you can find out that the washing machine isn't using too much energy, and you can compare your data with the neighbor's data, if you want. And you can say who's saving the most energy, you can help each other save energy. It's a huge trend, right? Smart meters, social meters. And then there's a thing that launched last week called O-Power in the U.S. that lets you connect your Facebook friends with your meter ring environment. So if you live in a small city, you have 10 Facebook friends in other houses around you, you can use Facebook to see how much energy they are using or how they are saving energy in a game. But it's a very real game because when you use this, it turns out you can save between 10 and 35% energy by using a game mechanism to learn what it's all about. Because people like games, you know, this is quite obvious. Look at the iPhone, half of the apps are games. So also, you know, life is becoming, hello. That's interesting now, okay, try this again here. Life is becoming multi-channel. I mean, a lot of people are talking about this, but clearly our reality is already that we're overwhelmed with all that stuff that's happening here, right? But your company needs to be multi-channel as well. It's to broadcast on different channels, not just print paper and send it to people or email. It needs to be video, it needs to be social, it needs to be mobile, it needs to be all of these things because that's what life is. You know, Samsung just launched a new TV. Oh, not just in January at the CAS shell. It has motion control, voice control, and face recognition. So you can sit on the couch, you can speak to the TV. I mean, just go to YouTube and see the video, it's pretty amazing. That is gonna become a standard for television. Imagine what that will do for corporate communications. You can sit in the front of the television and you can say, show video, BP, all disaster. And it will bring up whatever is inside of this channel with videos or treats or pictures or whatever. And you can use like from a matrix or the minority report, you can pull the data by just grabbing into the air. That is becoming a standard for a lot of things, and then basically we're seeing a trend towards crowdsourcing, which I can't touch on right now. I wanna talk about this real quick and then we'll wrap it up. So basically what we're seeing with all this, if some of you may be in the marketing business, we're looking at a total reset of how marketing works, marketing and advertising. Cause none of us are really interested in hearing all that stuff about products that we don't need. Like we did on television, or in the newspaper, or on the radio. This is the reason that radio and newspapers are having a hard time. Nobody wants to hear information about the new diapers when you're 90 years old. Nobody wants to hear a promotion for an S8 when you're 14. It's all these mismatches. So it's roughly a one trillion dollar budget to spend on advertising and marketing around the world. And now that people are connected at all times, advertisers are looking for a way to get to us directly. And how do they do that? They do what's called earned media. Earned media means conversation about you. So people may be talking about stat oil. Good or bad doesn't matter. Then you monitor the conversation and you become part of the conversation by giving something into the conversation. For example, content. Or getting them to like you, you know, in many ways. And so paid advertising which is ads, owned advertising which is your website, and earned advertising which is conversation. And then spread is viral. For example, you may have seen the guy who grinds an iPhone in a blender, right? It's called the iPhone blend, does it blend? It's a company called Blendtec. To that I don't have it here, right? Very popular Blendtec took all of the models of Apple and stuck it into a blender and grind the iPhone down to dust, okay? You should look it up on YouTube. And this was a stunt, of course. But the blender is really, actually does that. So people were so upset about the iPhones being blended, this video has reached something like 100 million views. And that's called viral marketing, right? A spread. Blendtec is the number one blender company in the world as of the day of that video. Because, you know, of course the blenders are great but nobody knew. Now it blinds the iPad, you know, it grinds it down. It's good. So basically what you see here, and this goes back to what I said in the beginning, because of this, because of earned media, we are now forced to give up some of the control that we have over the paid media. Because, for example, imagine a conversation at the dinner table with your family, if you sit down and say, you know, guys, we're only going to talk French tonight and we're only going to talk about the Constitution, nothing else. You would be controlling the conversation and nobody would talk. So if you want to be part of earned media, it's more reach than control, right? You can't control what people are gonna say. You can take it in and you can create a platform, there's more risk, but by taking it in, you gain a following. And many companies are doing this now, fully aware of the risk, that somebody may say, you're bad. But basically that is, earned media is going to make up about 50% of the entire spending. That's the sort of trend for the next five years. Depends, of course, what kind of business you are. So when I wrap up and say, I want to reverse this project, this prospect of risk, that's why it's upside down. If you're gonna live in a world where you're gonna avoid risk at all costs, then you're already outside of that world, basically. You're not gonna be in the next world. That's pretty certain. So this cartoon puts it forward, pretty straightforwardly from you, McLaughlin says, we have to engage or die. And that is really true, I think, for us personally, as well as for us as companies. And we can argue that we don't want to necessarily be too public. Okay, that's true. But we have to give something to get something. So there's a process that we're invariably heading towards, which means that we have to open up and create conversations in a different way. And a lot of that has to do with technology. But as I said in the beginning, don't use technology unless you're ready to deal with the consequences of what this technology will do, which will force you to be more open. Like, you wouldn't start a blog talking about the future of energy if you're not willing to have the conversation about the future of energy. Well, it'd be no point. So going back to what I said in the beginning, this is the most important part, and this is where I love this thing here. Where was it? Oh no, this is cool, this is quite nice, yeah. Okay, sorry about that. I'm gonna have to try to find the right piece of this. Hello, yeah, there you go. Okay, these disrupting factors we have to take in, because they're part of the future that we're heading towards, and now I'm really gonna finish with my fancy iPad variant here. I want to thank you very much for listening. I have the FTP, it's called Cloud FTP, if you want to download my stuff. If you are actually using apps, iPhone or Android, just look for Futureless Gert, and you can download my app, it's free, you can get all my stuff and check it out. I have lots of stuff on YouTube about the future of business, and so on, you can listen to that. Well, thanks very much for listening.