 Good afternoon and welcome to today's Energy Seminar. I'm really excited to introduce our speaker today, Michael Dioja, who is a senior researcher at the Clean Air Task Force and at the same time an Energy Specialist of the California Energy Commission and at the same time a fellow at the Energy for Growth Hub. He is also no stranger to Stanford. He was a postdoc here in the Carnegie Institution Science Program and his advisor, Kent Haldera, I just found out, was reminded that Kent Haldera, who is here, was his advisor. So thank you, Kent, for creating such a good thing. And he's known to be personally for about five years now. We were in a short course in a monastery, if you can believe it, in Venice in June 2019, right before COVID, and we had a faculty of about 16 people and we had 20 students. We were able to pick from 600 applicants. I would blame that on Venice and not on the quality of the faculty. And Michael was a postdoc at that point, or a PhD student. We decided by the end of the week that because we were so selective, the students were probably better than the faculty and should have given them, should have been giving the lectures all along based on their final presentations. But that's what we do, right? So, and certainly one of the most intriguing people I've kept in touch with since then, as many of you have, is Michael. So Michael's going to talk to us today about a big area and that is navigating Africa's trifecta of energy, climate and development with practicism. So it's what to do about the big new, big thing in Africa where we got on the order of a billion people or so who are now connected to the internet. And thanks to Michael and others growing finally as rapidly as we had hoped years ago. So Michael's one of the leaders in that movement in general and particularly in the sustainable energy space. So Michael, take it away. Can you hear me? Perfect. Hi, everyone. Thank you so much, John, for that great introduction. As John rightly pointed out, I've been on this campus before as a postdoc fellow and shout out to my boss, Dr. Ken Caldera. He's been very instrumental in my professional development, as well as my research former colleagues who are here, my former research groups. Thank you all for coming. So today, the title of my talk, as John rightly pointed out, is navigating Africa's trifecta of energy, climate and development with pragmatism. And when we're talking about pragmatism, which is the emphasis of this talk, we are looking at practical reality. So it's more of like a philosophical of looking at the re-outcome of actions. So we'll do a little bit of philosophical gymnastics. Just a disclaimer before I proceed to my talk, please. All views I'm expressing here today are my personal views. And shouldn't be attributed to any organization that I'm affiliated to. So just as a context to set my presentation going, we know that Africa is the second largest continent in the world. It's also the second most populous continent after Asia. And currently, Africa is home to about 1.4 billion persons. And when we look at the current United Nations projections for Africa by 2050, Africa population is expected to hit 2.5 billion in some projections. So that means that every one in four persons by the year 2050 is going to be African. Interestingly, Africa also have the youngest population in the world, right? About 40% of Africa's population are 15 years and below. So that also means like the workforce we need for energy transition to a certain degree will also be coming from Africa. And the continent is very diverse. We have about 54 different countries in Africa. Each of these countries have a different system of governments, over 3,000 ethnic groups, multiple languages, over 2,000 languages. So really, Africa is diverse. But despite this diversity and vast resources, Africa still remain the central point of global energy poverty, as well as the least developed continent in the world. But at the same time, we still have a different type of Africa that we want, which is encapsulated in what is called the Africa Agenda 2063. So the Africa Agenda 2063 is a strategic framework for socioeconomic transformation of the African continent. It was developed by the African Union in 2013. So in essence, what the Agenda 2063 is saying that by the year 2063, Africa ought to be developed like the way America is, right? So Lagos is going to be like New York. And then University of Ghana is going to be like Stanford University. But the point is we want to develop, yeah. Now, let's go into the core issue of today, which is this trifecta of energy, climate and developments. We know that energy is an essential component for human development. Without energy, our progress as humans will be lagged. So energy is not just a commodity, it is a lifeblood of human development. And when you look at the sustainable development goals, energy has a positive interlinkages with all these goals. Be it access to good education, healthcare, even jobs and so on. But at the same time, about 600 million Africans do not have access to electricity. So it means that these benefits that electricity is delivering, these Africans do not have access to them. And that is impeding their development in multiple dimensions. Also, when you look at something like access to clean cooking, about 900 million Africans do not have access to modern cooking energy systems. They depend on solid fuels like traditional biomass, animal dung and so on. And these also have health implications as a result of the local pollutants that come from the combustion of these solid fuels. A recent estimate I saw shows that about 500,000 Africans die annually as a result of local air pollution. When I look at that number, it's more than the cumulative number of Africans that died from COVID. So that gives us an insight to how this is impacting the welfare of Africans. All these energy challenges are also followed with other developmental challenges like high illiteracy level, large youth unemployment. You also see things like slums, urban slums. When you go to places like Lagos, Johannesburg, you see people living in inadequate shelter. About 260 million Africans don't have access to good shelter. The same thing to access to portable water. Another 480 million don't have access to portable water. Now, these energy challenges, development challenges are sitting side by side with the big elephant in the room, which is climate change. And so what climate change is doing is that it's exacerbating this already precarious situation. It's affecting water availability. It is affecting agriculture. A recent report by the African Development Bank shows that Africa loses about 15% of its GDP to climate change. And this is not surprising because when you look at the way the African economies are organized, a large portion of them depend on agriculture. So once there is a little change in the natural environment, it means that the GDP of these countries will be highly impacted. The same thing to in the sister assessment reports of the IPCC. It shows that Africa is the continent that is getting hotter the most compared to other continents. Sometime last year I was in Nigeria and everywhere was hot. I was sweating profusely. I was sweating like a Christmas good. In fact, the situation is dire, like the way things are getting hotter. So it also means that there is huge demand for air conditioning, right? In fact, I have some friends who are calling that air conditioning should be declared a fundamental human right in the face of climate change. So this also helps us to understand energy access in a broader context for Africa. It is beyond just access to electricity for lithium. We also need energy to power factories to create jobs for people. And then we also need energy for adaptation, air conditioning, desalination and so on. So within that framework, it is now important for us to be able to deal with these issues that are interconnected in an interconnected manner. But unfortunately, when we look at the research landscape, these three issues of energy development and climate change, they are not being dealt with holistically. In my own language, I called it a troubled but indispensable trinity. And when you know what we mean by trinity, it means that the three of them cannot be separated. But the energy transition research informing policymaking in Africa today deals with these issues separately. Just before I proceed, we've been talking about developmental challenges, but it is not all about problems in Africa. We also have other great stories in Africa. When you look at some of the fastest growing economies in the world today, they're in Africa. When you look at countries like Libya, look at countries like Cote d'Ivoire and so on. We also have an emerging tech hub on the continent. If you go to a place like Nairobi, Kenya, they have what they call the Silicon Savannah. It's just like a miniature of the Silicon Valley here. And a lot of young people employed in this tech sector, they are working also collaborating with companies here in the Silicon Valley. Also, even in clean energy, there is green hydrogen production projects that are being signed now. If you go to a place like Egypt, we have one of the largest solar power plants in the world in Egypt. Even when you look at natural resources, like gold, diamond, over 50% of them come from the African continent. Even though we've had one or two coups there, when we look at democracy, democracy is gradually still growing on the continent. So when you go to, they see the popular media, they show you all these kids that have big belly from Quachocco and tell you bring money to support Africa and so on. Yes, there are governance and developmental challenges, no doubt, but Africa's stories is beyond that. And these are the areas that we need to be projecting. Okay, back to business. I talked about the dichotomy in the current energy research landscape that does not consider the trifecta of energy, climate and development in an interconnected manner. So at CETF, we try to do a systematic review to understand to what extent as the current existing research landscape capturing these three issues. Most of our focus was on to what extent our developmental imperatives captured in long-term energy transition analysis for Africa. One of the things we found is that it is a new, but fast-growing research and there is huge geographical disparities. Interestingly, we found that 10% of the publications were done before 2015, that is before the Paris Agreement. And then we also found that another one-third of the studies focus on the two largest economies in Africa, which is Nigeria and South Africa, while over half of the countries which are going to see on the graph below, that's your bottom right, about 28 countries have no research done on them already. But these 28 countries all have submitted their NDCs to the UNFCCC as part of their Paris Agreement. So the question now becomes, which knowledge base did these African countries are getting to the Paris Agreement? So it's like the math is not math at that point. It's like a doctor giving you medicine for a disease they have not diagnosed. So there's a huge research gap. There's a huge knowledge gap in Africa's energy transition. And it is important for us to acknowledge that in order to make policies that are well-informed. Another interesting finding is that economic development, which by the way is the biggest priority for Africa today, is really at the forefront of this energy transition research. We found that only 7% of the studies considered energy, climate, and development in an interconnected manner. Then also when you look at the projections they do for per capita electricity consumption, which is one of the measures we use to estimate how developed an economy is. The highest projection for Africa by 2050 is 1,500 kilowatt-hour per person. That's less than half of the world average today. The world average today is about 3,100 kilowatt-hour per person. Then when you compare it to the United States or the OECD, it's nothing to write home about. So that indirectly also tells you that such projections are saying that Africa will be poor even by the year 2050. Also when we look at the cost of the transitions, the cost of the transitions are not fully factored and only 4% of the papers looked at the cost of transition. And these are the analysis they are using to make energy transition policies for Africa. And then when you look at most of the policies, they are quote-unquote dead on arrival. Another interesting finding is that the intellectual leadership is from afar. That is the people who are doing the research for the energy transition in Africa. They are not even busy in Africa. We found that about 63% of the researchers are outside of Africa. But another interesting dynamic is that the Africa-focused researchers tend to do analysis for single African countries. While the researchers that are outside tend to look at the continent, quote-unquote as one big village, then that becomes very challenging when you are drawing policy implications. Because those that focus on single African countries tend to recommend policies that are tell-out specific to the context of that country. But when you see these ones that look at Africa as one big village, they make policies that in real life, they can't work. So that becomes important because they don't consider the contextual differences that exist between the energy systems of all these countries. So now, why am I talking that context matters a lot? When you look at a country like Kenya, which is what the biggest economy in East Africa or what I would call the East Africa powerhouse, Kenya's energy system is dominated highly by renewables. If you look at the mix, over 40% is coming from geothermal. And that's one of the biggest in the world. Then you have another hydro, you have another renewable hydro contributing almost 30% as well as addition of wind. So if you look at the way the system is in Kenya, to a large extent they don't have so much of business with introducing fossil fuels into the electricity mix. They also import electricity from the neighboring country, which is Ethiopia. Ethiopia makes 96% is from renewables by the way. So even in their transportation sector, petroleum imports is mainly what takes up the fiscal and the revenue of the government. About 40% of Kenya's revenue is going to petroleum import. So there is huge incentive to move away from oil and gas in Kenya. Even the grid is facing a lot of challenges, issues of excess generation and so on. So within the Kenyan system, you'll be seeing that EVs are growing and they are using EVs to address some of these challenges. However, they have to do it in an innovative manner. They use something called battery swapping, which within this model, it makes the cost of owning electric vehicles cheaper because as you all know, the batteries are the most expensive components in an EV. But within the battery swapping model, the battery become like the fuel. They don't own it. So that makes the cost of running the EVs. There are two wheels as the bikes that they're using for this battery swapping, very cheap for them. Also within that context, now we'll begin to understand the rule of new and advanced technologies in Africa's energy transition. What these technologies need to do is to advance socioeconomic development and then climate mitigation becomes what? A co-benefit. But in the West is a reversal is the case. The decarbonization becomes a primary benefit here while the co-benefit becomes what? Socioeconomic development. At the bottom right, you will see that as the president of Kenya coming out from his electric car during the Africa climate summit, he's trying to make a statement to the world that Kenya is ready. And when you look at the way the Kenyan economy is organized, most of the revenue comes from agriculture. So to a large extent, there's huge incentive to decarbonize Kenya. But when we go to a different context, which is Nigeria. Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, as well as the most populous black nation in the world with a population of about 230 million persons. The Nigeria energy system is highly carbon-intensive. About 80% is coming from natural gas. Then you have another hydro. But the hydro resource is highly limited that even if you dam all the rivers in Nigeria, it's not enough to satisfy 10% of the true demand. Then when we look at other options like nuclear, nuclear has to be fired away. Even the lead time for nuclear before you get it to Nigeria, we can't keep people suffering in energy poverty. So Nigeria have huge gas resource in which even if you look at the Nigerian energy transition plan, they have decided to invest in gas as a transition fuel. And also when you look at the revenue of the country, 90% of Nigeria's foreign income is coming from oil and gas. So the question now becomes, where will Nigeria even master the resources to finance this energy transition? It means it needs to explore oil and gas the more. Then we get questions like diversify your economy. You can't diversify your economy overnight. You still need decades to diversify your economy fully. Then where will the money for that diversification come? It means that Nigeria still need to exploit its oil and gas substantially. I remember the vice president of Nigeria, the former vice president rather, he wrote in Foreign Affairs about why burning fossil fuel investment in Africa is going to crush Africa's development. And he was making specific reference to Nigeria. So in essence, Nigeria still have a lot of business to do with oil and gas at this point. Now I'd like to point out what our emphasis need to be on in terms of talking about how we are going to master the resources to finance the energy transition. When you go to a lot of international conferences, co-op, as well as all these climate symposiums, they will tell you, oh, leave your oil and gas in the ground. We are going to give you money in form of aid, 100 billion annually and so on, that will give you money to finance your energy transition. The thing is that these aids, they don't really help Africa to a larger extent. Since 1960, more than 2.5 trillion USD have gone to African economies in the form of aid. And I'm here to see any empirical analysis that shows any positive relationship between economic development as well as aids. And rather what we see is that the more aids are increasing in some instances, poverty is even increasing in those instances. So I think it's Albert Einstein that says, you can be doing the same thing over and over again and be expecting different results. So it means that we need a change in our rate thinking. So for African countries, we need to stop this over reliance on foreign aids and start to look inwards. Now, does it mean that the foreign aids are not good? Please, they are good. But I think what is more important for Africa is the policy reforms in which the West can give. Let me give you a typical instance. I think sometime last year during this new climate park, something in Paris where President Ruto was talking about the need for a new financial architecture, whereby all countries can contribute their own equally. And then African countries can have also equal power to be able to make financial decisions within that context and they can be able to get loans at a lower rate. Then this money that we are giving us aid, that money can actually be used to provide guarantee for private sectors who want to invest in Africa because the biggest risk, the biggest problem for investment in Africa is the risk. Who is going to be at the risk of financing? Also when you look at things like the tax loopholes that we have, as well as the trade liberalization policies. So there are innovative ways in which the West can actually help Africa. You know, African countries can't keep on begging from DC to Brussels, from Brussels to Moscow. I've never seen any country that grew out of poverty and build out this entire energy system depending on its and so on. It is not possible. So I think there is a need for a rate inquiry in that context. Now, what should African countries focus on in the face of climate change? If you look at the way the energy system of African countries are being organized, if you look at a country like Ghana, it's a combination of hydro as well as natural gas. Why if you look at Ethiopia? Ethiopia is like 96% coming from renewables. Why South Africa is co-dominated? But when you look at Namibia, Namibia has about 31% coming from Sula and that's one of the largest infraction of Sula in the world. And then another 64% coming from hydro. In fact, as we speak today, there are some African countries that are in net zero. If you look at a country like Madagascar, a country like Gabon, a country like Comoros, all these countries are in net zero. So if you look at all these countries, you see that there is huge heterogeneity in how the energy systems are being organized. But there is one place where all of them are homogeneous, which is the socioeconomic development problems. If you move from Gabon to Nigeria, to Ghana, to Lesoth, it's the same problem everyone is complaining. Unemployment, poverty, hunger and so on, it's the same thing. If you look at the Human Development Index, which the United Nations use is just a major, a composite major for the United Nations, which measures countries achievement in three different dimensions in terms of knowledge, healthcare as well as a living standard, that is per capita income. There is no African country in the top 60. In fact, even countries that are in net zero like Madagascar, they are at least developed 173. So it means that the real priority for African countries right now is not simply decarbonization, but how do we provide economic development for our people? Now, I'm not saying this economic development just because we want economic development. The point is that socioeconomic development also enables climate action. When you look at the figure on your top left, that's the per capita electricity generation from renewables. You will notice that the countries in the West have higher per capita electricity generation from renewables compared to African countries. Then when you look at the figure below, that's the GDP per capita. You are going to see that the figure above mirrors the figure below. The higher the GDP per capita, the higher the per capita electricity from renewables. Also, when you look at the top right, that is what electric vehicles per capita. There is no African country that is in the top 10. So does that mean that African countries don't want EVs? No, they want EVs. The point is that they don't have the necessary infrastructure, they don't have the finance to afford EVs today. You know, there are some people who, even if they can't afford something, they don't like it. I remember when I wanted to change my car. I saw this car, it's called a Lucid Air. It's an electric car with a mileage of about 520 miles. But when I looked at the price of the car and I looked at my annual salary, I decided to respect myself. But the point is that for Africa, we like EVs just that we don't have the infrastructure and the money to invest in that at this point. So we need to be more pragmatic about some of these issues. But now when we are talking about climate action, EVs, renewables, all these are for mitigation. Another component of climate action is adaptation. And for Africa, adaptation is the most important thing at this point. And how do you adapt? You need economic development. In fact, when we're talking about adaptation, it's all about economic development. In the West, we have resilient infrastructure that even in the face of changing climate, our infrastructure can be able to be resilient enough to stand to the perils of climate change. But in Africa, we don't have that. And that is why we are suffering the most from climate change. Now, how are we going to develop? We need big energy. And when I'm talking about big energy, I mean large-scale infrastructure projects, utility-scale energy projects. When you look at the figure on your right-hand side, that's a figure showing per capita electricity consumption and per capita income. You will see that the countries at your top right, countries like the United States where we are, Norway, Ireland, they have huge per capita income. But also, when you look at the left, you see that the per capita electricity consumption is high. Now, when you look at the bottom left, you will see those African countries, they are Burundi, Somalia, and so on. Low per capita income, low per capita energy consumption. The point is that there is no country that is rich today that is now rich in energy. So for African countries to become rich, they also need to be worth rich in energy. We profound respect, I will profound respect with the microgrid warriors. Microgrids cannot provide the kind of energy that Africa needs to develop. What microgrids do is to provide electricity to charge your phone, laptop, and TV. But African dreams are beyond that. It's not microgrid we use and achieve Africa agenda 2063. It's not with microgrids that Africans will use, develop and build like the United States. The point is that big energy projects can provide the necessary infrastructure to support industries, businesses, and other economic activities, thereby creating job and reducing poverty. And we know that the more you developed, you are, the more educated your citizens become. And that also gives them the awareness of climate change, as well as strategies to use and adapt to climate change. So investing in big energy projects are very, very important. It's very, very important for Africa because a lot of people who live in the rural area are migrating to the urban areas. And when you keep on providing microgrid to the people in the rural areas, they will abandon it and come to the urban areas and seek for job in the factories and so on. So, and that as well, we need big energy projects. So we need to be realistic and understand what we need at this point and stop being distracted by things that we really do not need at this point. Even when you talk about issues around energy security. If you have big infrastructure projects, you can have the opportunity to invest in multiple energy generation systems, all of them feeding to the grid. You can have nuclear, hydro, wind and so on and all this expands energy security. Now, next question I keep on getting sometimes when I go for seminars like these or maybe I have a media invitation for an interview with a journalist, is this question of what if Africa develops like the West? What's the climate implication? And this normally stem from the argument that, okay, you need big energy to progress, just like the way the West did. The point is that Africa is not developing and will not develop like the West. When we look at the way the West have developed, it is true in efficient appliances in most cases, coal, steam based, train and so on. If you go to a place like Tanzania, even the East Africa corridor, they are building out electric trains, that's how we are developing. Even the micro grids we are talking about, they are renewables, right? These are places that 44 would have been used before. So the question now becomes, how is Africa going to develop? Africa is going to develop like Toyota Prius. And when I say it's going to develop like Toyota Prius, I mean it's going to develop in a hybrid manner. Within some context as I showed you, there is really huge incentive for decarbonization and they are very, very economical. But within some context, perhaps, there will be combustion of fossil fuels in this area, mainly natural gas. So depending on the context, the country find itself is going to determine how it's going to develop. But all of us are heading to net zero, but there are multiple pathways that we are going to use and get there. Another thing we need to understand is that human needs are the same, but the energy we need to satisfy those needs are different. All of us here, we desire the same thing, space condition and transportation, cooking, all these are services that energy provides. A friend of mine from ESID, they studied where they looked at what's the amount of energy we need for a decent living, as well as what are the gap in current decent living. And that's the result you see by your right hand there. You will see the black line, that's the threshold for decent living energy. SSE, which is what you have at the right most path, have the least amount of energy needed for a decent living standards. So this sort of idea of Africa will develop like the West is not really the true picture and such kind of idea is not good in the sense that it creates a mentality that creates blanket ban on investment in fossil fuels in the entire continent without understanding the differences that exist in the region's energy systems. So what is the climate implication when you look at the IEA report, irrespective of the scenario that Africa is developing? Emissions will just be 4% of the total emissions in 2050. So it means that Africa's emission is not a threat to our climate goals. And there have been a couple of studies around this as well. Also when you look at a simple back of the envelope calculation that was conducted by the energy for growth of just checking how much we're tripling Africa's electricity via gas alone today affect our climate. It's just 1.2%. Of course, we know that there are some things around methane leakages and so on. We'll start going to the technicalities. But the point is that the emissions are not what, it's not the reason why we shouldn't invest in Africa's development. When you even exclude South Africa from that simple back of the envelope calculation the emissions just become 0.62% increase. Just 0.6% increase in current emissions. So all these alarmist predictions that we see those things just create some sense of scaremongering. And we shouldn't use that as a yastic to allow people not to invest in potential resources that can help to drive their development. So what is my message today? My message today is that a just energy transition in Africa requires what a pragmatic approach, rare and purely idealistic vision. So there are several reasons why pragmatism is crucial. Many African countries today, they are in early stages of their economic development. They are facing several issues such as poverty, healthcare, education. So pragmatism recognizes that addressing these immediate priorities need to be integrated into the broader energy transition goal of Africa. The same thing too in terms of limited resources. A lot of African countries are facing financial hardship today. Let me give you a typical analogy for you to understand what I mean. This university we are, Stanford annual budget is about nine billion US dollars. When you look at that amount, it is more than the budget of many African countries put together. Then what the population of Stanford University is just about 40,000, including admin, the staff and students. Why these countries? I'm telling you, millions of people. So that will give us a sense of the financial gap that we have. So when we are thinking about net zero for these countries, we need to be pragmatic and practical about the current situation in those countries and look at the most or the best least cost approach to provide electricity and other forms of energy to drive socioeconomic development. Also when we look at the infrastructure gap, the infrastructure gap is huge. The same thing too when we look at issues around the current state of technology. Technologies that are in the West today cannot be easily deployed in Africa. They need to be tested and proven so that they can be scaled up when it adapts to the African condition. Also political and institutional realities of Africa. I remember the former president of the United States, President Barack Obama, who said that what Africa need is strong institutions. So what we need to do is to fix those institutions, first of all, when we are talking about energy transition in Africa. So get me clearly. The point is that the world need to be patient with Africa. We still have a lot of things that we are dealing with or socioeconomic development problems. So we need incomes to be increasing. Then over time, when you look at something like the inflation reduction act here, a whole billions of dollars are going into research in clean energy technologies and we're expecting these technologies costs to drop in the future. So as African income is increasing and technology costs is decreasing, it is easier for them to transition in the future within that context. So here I just a school of thought while I start winding down this presentation. And it is about understanding Africa's energy conundrum through the lens of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. I'm sure some of you must have heard about the Maslow's theory. So Maslow, a famous psychologist in 1943, he came up with this theory. We suggest that human beings have a hierarchy of needs that they seek to fulfill. And these needs are typically arranged in a pyramid or a hierarchical structure with the basic needs at the bottom and the higher level needs at the top. So in Maslow's theory, every human needs starts from the physiological need, which is things around food, shelter, and clothing. The basic needs are sleeping. These are the things you can start life without. Then you move towards safety and security because of the way the social nature of humans are. We want to bond and make friends. Then from there you proceed towards love and belonging. We want to have a, pardon me, from physiological needs we go to safety and security, which has to do with what? Our safety from harm, financial security as well as emotional security. Then we move to love and belonging because of our social crucial, we want to connect with other people. And then self-esteem, looking at recognition, awards from peers and so on, and then self-actualization. And that is why when you look at a lot of millionaires today who are seeking for self-actualization, they invest a lot in climate, investing humanitarian needs and all these things, trying to do good in the world. But they have gotten to a certain level before they do that. When we analogize this to Africa's energy and climate conundrum, we can describe that bottom level as what's basic energy access. That's where we are starting from. Whether based on conventional or non-conventional sources of energy. Now from there we proceed toward reliability of that energy because it's not just being connected and say you have access, but how many hours are you getting that electricity? That's what is going to determine to what extent that access is useful for you. Then from there we respond to Africa regional cooperation as well as partnerships in energy, which is basically what the power pools that we are doing in Africa today as well as the collaboration we are having with the West. And that is all geared towards ensuring energy security. And then we move up to the pyramid which is Africa's energy empowerment, which has to do with what digitalization of our grid, introducing technology, investing more in research, making the grid to be what more resilient. And then the last focus because what the ultimate goal of climate action at that place were becoming leaders in sustainable development. Now I'd like to point out that it is not all human beings that follow this hierarchy in a strict linear fashion. Of course we know that there are some people who value love and belonging ahead of self-esteem and so on. So it is not all African countries that are going to follow this hierarchy in a strict linear fashion. A lot of countries are developing in different ways. But when we are looking at the broader population, you see that this sort of hierarchy applies to them. And it is all about understanding what is our priority at a particular point in time. So I'll be concluding now. As I told you initially, there is a need for more research. There is huge knowledge gap in Africa's energy transition landscape. A lot of policies that are being made today are ill-informed. So we need more knowledge. And there are a lot of areas for research on Africa's energy transition. It is also essential for us to recognize that Africa's energy transition conundrum is not just a simplistic battle between renewables and fossil fuels. And we shouldn't be coerced into believing those things. The context matters really. There are some oil and gas majors right now that are trying to cash on into this bandwagon of, oh, we need to burn fossil fuels to develop Africa. And then they're using that for their business shenanigans. Please, we are not part of them. Africa's development priority is not like a reason for companies not to maintain environmental stewardship in their business dealings. Also, it's not a problem of the global note versus the Africa. This climate may, all of us are in it together. It is we versus we. Just that we need to recognize each other's difference as well as our circumstances in this mess. Also, it is also important for us to recognize that Africa is not just one big village. The context in which we find ourselves is going to define the kind of solutions that we need for our energy transition. So within that context, we need to understand that for Africa, greater emphasis need to be placed on advancing social economic development on the continent. It's not just because we need to develop, but we need that to have the capacity to fight climate change, as well as to adapt to climate change. So in essence, there is a need for a paradigm shift on our approach to climate action with respect to Africa. Let me just tell you a short story and then I'll round up this presentation. This last Valentine that passed, just February 14th last month, a man and his wife, they went out for Valentine dates. So they go to this very fancy hotel. The wife was sitting here, the man was sitting here. Very nice table, you know. So two minutes into the date, the man said, I complain that something is issue in my leg. So he started scratching it, scratching it. After a couple of minutes, he told the wife that I'm not feeling it, but I've been scratching it, you know. So the wife looked at him and said, foolish man, it's my only leg you've been scratching. So what was the point? The point is that we need to stop scratching the orangtans in Africa. When we're talking about decarbonization, right? For Africa, decarbonization is just beyond reducing emissions. We need to be scratching the meaning which is what? How do we get to net zero hunger? How do we get to net zero poverty? How do we get to net zero use unemployment? When we address this, they are going to provide the framework for us to be able to address net zero emission energy systems in a way that is both just and equitable. Thank you. That was great, Michael. Thanks for that very broad perspective. It was like a whirlwind. I'm still catching up to what you just said. I think it was a very astute and very a fight for a lot of thought just to get the different perspective we're sitting here in the West Coast of the US trying to imagine what it might be like there. I think you gave us an insight into what it is actually like there on the ground. So we have plenty of time for questions now. Any questions? We usually start with students. Everyone back here? Rachel. Thank you so much for the talk. I just want to hear if you have any case studies or examples of countries within Africa that you think are taking the right steps towards what your vision is needed in terms of large-scale infrastructure. So a lot of countries are facing financial constraints. And they solely depend on foreign investors, in most cases, for this large-scale infrastructure. Well, for this large-scale infrastructure energy projects. But the challenge we are facing is that even the foreign investors don't want to come in because of the risks that they have for investing in the continent. So the biggest challenge right now is how do we address that risk? If you look at the way the United States as well as other countries developed, the main energy infrastructure like the transmission and distribution infrastructure, they were provided by the government. But in the case of Africa, it is not that way because even the government is handicapped. So if you go to countries like South Africa, they have developed to a certain degree that that's not even what they are dealing with now. They are focusing more on generation capacity. But when we look at other African countries, they have the interest. They know that they need to invest in these large-scale energy projects just that they have not been able to mobilize the right investors to come in. And it is because these investors are not sure whether they can be able to make profits in these areas. So there is huge conversation ongoing now on how to risk investment in Africa. And that was one of the points I was talking about. Some of the money that are given in form of AIDS that we are not even seeing the practical implication of this money. Why not we use this money to provide some guarantee for the private sector investors that want to come into the continent in order to drive more people? And also, there are other issues around financing that, perhaps, maybe we can pick up that during the round-table discussion outside. Great. Other questions? Hi. So we heard that there is a lot of grants coming to Africa. But why is it so hard for the private sector to actually access those? OK. I'm not a finance person. But here is how you understand it. The AIDS are usually government-to-government transfer. So it is not for a private sector entity. So it is not left for the government to use that transfer that they have gotten to win private sector. But with the way Africa has been organized, in some countries, there is no transparency in that. So it's become very challenging for us to see even the money that have been transferred. And that is why, as I told you, we don't see any positive correlation between these AIDS that are coming in. And also, mind you, that some of the AIDS are actually in form of loan. So it's actually put some of these countries in debt trap. And once they find themselves in such a situation, it becomes difficult for them to even have something to provide for the private sector. For the private sector, I think what is more important is identifying the proper stakeholders in these African countries. Because we still have businesses that are going on private sector business. The richest black man in the world today is a Nigerian, Ali Kodankote. And he has investments in Nigeria. If you can identify Ali Kodankote as an investor and put your money side by side with him, you will invest in Africa and make profit because they'll understand where the rigs are on the continent, okay? Ali Kodankote can call the vice president and call the vice president and say, I need guarantee for this, okay? Also the same thing to the, if you look at the utilities in Africa, many of them are bankrupt. And when you look at some of the things affecting is that they are collecting the rigs in the local, the utility bills in the local currency. But they take loans in foreign currency. Look at something like Nigeria Nera, it has fallen to the dollar over 100% just within the last six months, right? So there is need for local capital market as well. So back to your point, if that grant can come into the government and then the government can use that to establish local capital markets. Then private sector can go through the local capital market, you know, take the money from there. And then that will also help them to repay back in the same currency. And within that context, they will avoid paying a lot in terms of repayment if it is just directly coming from these international institutions that they have to pay back in dollars. Great, other questions? Hi, thank you for your presentation. You mentioned the research gaps on the continent. And I'm wondering if you could just list for example in Ghana, what would you prioritize for research in terms of renewable energy and energy transition? Sure, that's a very good question. I think the main thing is how do we bring down the cost of technologies? Yeah, because the main challenge Africa is facing is the finance, how to mobilize the resources and therefore their transition. So if we can be able to identify the cheapest option, the least cost technologies that we can use for that transition as well as even the expensive technologies, how can we apply them in such a way that they are going to be cheap for the ordinary person in Africa? That's one area for research. And then the new advanced technologies that we are talking about, what methodology can we use to apply them in the African continent? I was giving you an example about Kenya where they use this battery swapping for two wheelers and then electric vehicles even become more cost effective within that context. So how to bring down that cost? This one area of research that we need to be looking at. Then another area of research that we need to start looking at is other countries that have not even received attention at all in Africa. And I showed you about 28 countries that don't have any research at all that have been done on them. So we also need to start looking at what's going on in these areas for these countries. Then another thing we need to also start thinking about which comes back to cost a bit is how can we go in, which is from the aspect of the political economy side? How can we be able to mobilize funds internally in Africa? Because these dependence always have not been able to accelerate the transition, okay? So you know, it's when you have been able to make make a strong case internally, you can be able to make a strong case for external inflows. So that's another area that we need to start looking into. Another area that we need to start looking into is the new and advanced technologies. How can they be transferred to Africa at the shortest possible time? Because if we want to decarbonize, we also need to avoid the potential for stranded assets. Yes, we are talking about some cases that would need to be investment in fossil assets and so on. But those assets need to be designed in such a way that they can easily be repurposed once we want to transition to clean energy. So these kind of innovations are what we need to accelerate the transition as well as to reduce the cost of the transition. One here, one here, and then Ken gets the last word. Yes, sir. I represent IEEE Smart Village. We put on the annual Power Africa Conference most recently in Morocco. And I was very interested in your presentation and the use of where they're pragmatic. Since millennia of villages in Jeffrey Sachs effort, it's sort of an accepted truth that all development has to proceed bottom up. And I think there are two sides to that. If you wanted to promote scalable development with your trifecta in Africa, which we support with our funding, how could you take another point of view that maybe there's a top-down component to that? You know, that's a tough question. Yeah, I think it's depending on the context. If we are looking at life-scale infrastructure projects, then we need a top-down approach. But even that top-down approach, it shouldn't be strictly top-down approach. It should be a combination of both top-down and bottom-up approach. And one thing that is, when you look at a lot of African countries, the transmission sector of the electricity system is usually owned by the government. Okay, and part of the reasons where a lot of people are just focused on microgrids is that they want to navigate the bureaucracy in that side, right? Some of them, they feel like once you go via microgrids, you navigate their bureaucraties. It's cheaper, easily scalable, and so on. So I think that once we are serious for development, top-down need to be done. And the reality is that nothing good comes easy. We have to go through that piece of that bureaucracy and so on. We have to fix this energy institutions to be able to get that to work. So it's going to take a lot of time within that context. But I believe that it's also a combination of bottom-up and top-down because we can't keep on waiting until those bureaucraties are sorted out. Why there are some people, perhaps in the rural area that don't have electricity. So while we are doing that, we are also trying to fix that bureaucracy within that context to be able to get these big energy projects going on over time while we keep on investing in our microgrids and so on. Hi, thank you for your presentation. So first I want to start by saying that the Department of Energy just awarded 10 historically black colleges and universities $100,000 to support clean energy education. And I'm curious from your perspective, how can academic institutions, specifically historically black colleges that can connect with the diaspora, how can they support your research initiatives and also support the educational development challenges that you mentioned in your presentation? Thanks for that question. Yeah, very good question. I think this is related to what I was discussing with John before this talk about how to get Africa involved in integrated assessment modeling consortium in its own case. But I think the main thing is looking at joint research partnership with African institutions as well as African academics, right? And within that joint research partnership, it shouldn't be that these African institutions are just there for namesake, you know? We actually have to work with them. So the biggest challenge they are facing also is the finance for the research, right? So one thing the institutions especially the HBCUs can be doing is to support them with that finance as so give them lead role in giving direction to the research because they understand the local circumstances better. They understand the problems that the people are facing. Yeah, then you provide things like strategic research directions as well as what I would call hand-holding in the research process. Even like when you look at the kind of publications that are coming out from these African institutions, there are a lot of great research that has been lost into hard copy journals, right? So it is also the responsibility of these institutions to be able to help them to get that research knowledge out of the broader world, yeah. Great, last word, Ken. My questions kind of follow up to this question and also the question about research in Ghana. So let's say somebody in Stanford or some other institution wanted to collaborate with people in country in Africa. How would somebody go about finding good collaborators and how would you actually set about doing that research? This question is a question that there's no silver bullet to answer this. I think it's something I've been dealing with personally myself because I've been getting a lot of requests. Even the academic journals that I'm on the editorial board as well as other researchers here, how can we be able to identify these talents in Africa to work with them? I think, of course, through the publication output, that is one way that we can be able to do that. But again, the conferences that we go to, we do see presentations from a couple of folks from those areas. So those folks are going to help to link us to other people that we need to get to. But it's easy, it's not all that easy. Sometimes we even invite to academic conference but they don't even have the funds to come. So there are some initiatives that we are trying to think about. How do we just create something like a strategic working group with the people we know in the West? And then there's Africans we know in the West, African academics, and then allow those African academics in the West to pinpoint those ones they know in Africa. So it's kind of one network leading to the other network, the other network leading to the other network. The only challenge is that it's going to take a while but we have to be patient to go through that process. I have no full solution to that. Maybe you can help us accelerate that process. So that note, I just been reminded that we have an energy social that's going to go on right outside, right after, so good food and discussion, you're all invited to that. So with that said, I'd like to thank Michael one last time for a great talk and the audience for a great question.