 to Steve Rose as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks these as an outstanding show here every trading day one to two Eastern standard time also is a great newsletter mastering probability. Now it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter folks from over our website at TFNN. You're going to see hit newsletters are going to be on the right hand side top. You can get mastering probability for one month for $149. You can get it for six months at a price point of 6.95 which is a savings of $199.22% and you can get it for one year for $11.95 which is a savings of $593.33%. Now they all come folks a 30 day money back guarantee so you can check it out if you like it keep it and on top of that Steve has a huge amount of archives out here that gets you to understand exactly how he looks at the market each and every day. Steve Rhodes what's going on. Well I'm still defrosting from my trip up to New York City this past five days out there. I certainly like the 84 degree temperature better than 48 and gray and gray. Well you know we had some we had some we had some nice clear skies. But you know so kind of on it. So it was a friend of mine's wedding that was supposed to be three years ago. Nice. And you know they finally you know with COVID and everything they finally were able to pull it off. But so I have my bucket list. I thought it'd be nice to go see the Christmas tree lighting in the Rockefeller Center. Yes. I've done the ball drop many years ago had a blast doing that. So I figured well as long as we're going up let's make sure that we can take that in. Put the plane right up there Tom. You know we've heard about delays and everything. We get there on time supposedly was on time three hours late. We're flying into LaGuardia. This is the last Wednesday kind of late in the afternoon. And you know how bad of a plane ride it is when when you land and everybody starts clapping. Yeah. Big applause. So but glad to be back. You hit that turbulence. Yeah. There's some you know I went to Boston just tonight to have a dinner with one of my friends and they were the pilot was talking about sometimes this part of the year this turbulence up there taken taken off and landed. Yeah. Right. Absolutely. I was you know 50 mile per hour type wins or what have you but you know it was one of those times where you you know you're you're in the you're committed as you're coming down and the planes going sideways up and down. I've I've got three million miles I've flown and committed to stay alive. Exactly. Exactly. So I was like I was trying to get everybody to lift their windows up. You know if it's going to be the end I want to see it. Totally. I love it. But yeah but anyway so so the S&P 500 as we know we've talked about this from time to time it's entered it's a bullish seasonal cycle which typically forms in the middle of October. And that's a little red arrow that is on our screen here. This is a chart courtesy of the folks over at season X and this is taking a look at 72 years worth of data for the S&P 500 out here. So we know that we're in the favorable seasonal cycle and therefore the Santa Claus rally is intact. I'll use the words here at the moment though. Yeah. And the reason I use at the moment is because if we take a look at last week's price action the S&P 500 hit the top of this descending trend line and this is the descending trend line that really shows the bear market in essence that we have been in. So if the Santa Claus rally is really going unfold price got to close above I'll use last week's high forty one hundred certainly can say just a close above the descending trend line but we'll just use last week high at this moment out there. So close about forty one hundred would then say OK the Santa Claus rally is in fact intact but right now we're dealing with the trend line resistance. And so if price is sitting trend line resistance the question is has the S&P 500 topped. So to answer that question I would like to turn to the stock market patterns. You mentioned that subscribers to my newsletter service will get the loads of archives it'll take a look at the different top and bottoming patterns some which we'll talk about here right now. So this is the daily chart for the S&P 500. And what this shows and there's multiple A to B equal CD patterns out here but this shows a completed one to one point six one eight A to B equal CD pattern. No I know somewhere in your book The Hour of Time in the Tread you've got something and I don't know if it's the one point six one eight. Tom or is it the one to two. No it's a one to one point six one eight. Yeah. And sometimes they go one to two but once you hit one to six point six one eight media change of trend. All right. All right. So what you and I now know is the S&P 500 owns your book. Yeah. Because it hit the one to one point six one eight perfectly last week on Wednesday or Thursday that is. And obviously we've backed off. And so now the reason I use the word completed with regard to completing the A to B equal CD pattern because people can see the one to one year with these with this tool that I've got at the one to one point two seven two level and the one to one point six right. The reason I use the word completed is because for me the pattern completes when it generates a reversal candle in this case here because the market's been moving higher. We're looking for a bearish reversal candle and today unless there's some major rally in the next forty thirty seven minutes out here today we should see a bearish candle for the S&P 500 and Tom that's where I would take a look at as completing the one to one point six one eight A to B equal CD pattern. Now oftentimes instruments I'd mentioned there's multiple A to B equal CD pattern. So I showed the smaller one. Here's a larger one which hasn't really been in this had a price projection or has a price projection of forty one eighteen. So if we do get a close above last week's high price will then go ahead and target that forty one eighteen level maybe even make more than one to one larger A to B equal CD pattern to the upside. So how do we know if today is a top or if today is just a retracement that's really the question that each of us should be asking and for that what I do is I turn to the TAS market profiles we move from the S&P 500 chart and I move over to the ES many. So the S&P futures chart and the yellow arrows here Tom that I'm showing everybody I show the bottom of new profiles as they form and what people should see here is that if they're asking themselves where is the buy the dip point out here what we can see is as price as price hits the bottom of those profiles that is where the buyers are lined up. So this the ES many this is the daily timeframe chart out there and here we see that the these that these close of health. So the the bottoms of these profiles have held since the October lows. So we will know that there is a change in trend if we see a close below the bottom of the daily profile for the ES many. So the the number that folks should write on their pad of paper is thirty nine thirty nine. If we see a close below thirty nine thirty nine obviously something will have been different since the October lows and we can say officially that there would be a change in trend inside the S&P 500. That's what we're trying to help us to identify whether this is just a retracement because pulling back to support is a normal thing just like we did here in about the middle of November price was pulling back. Maybe it looked like OK it was over but all the price was really doing was testing support. So really critical area this thirty nine thirty nine level. Now as far as the other indices go if we take a look at this I've got the S&P in the upper left the NASDAQ in the upper right which hasn't even gone to the trend line the Dow most certainly is above the trend line and the Russell 2000 close just above it last week but it looks like perhaps this is a false breakout to the upside out there now in the case of the Dow with it being above the S&P trend line that's really about global capital flows and this chart here shows the global capital flows for the Dow price in euros pounds and yen. The purple line out here shows the actual high in reference to when the high was made inside the Dow priced in dollars. We can see that those highs have been taken out priced in euros yen and pounds out there. So the Dow is also generating a topping pattern today and this is what I refer to as the roadsman to medicated top. And this is so we've got tops in the S&P. We've got tops in the in the Dow and now it's really critical is to watch those levels of support. So I gave you the level for the yes many for the Dow or thirty thirty nine thirty nine thirty three four twenty nine that's the price point to watch. Pretty cool. Folks come over to our website at TFNN Newsletters. You'll see Master of Probability right here inside. Hit that button. You are off to the races. Have a great one. Safe one. Look forward to show tomorrow Steve. Thanks. Thank you. Stay right there folks. We'll come right back.