 Gwneud ddweud o'r ffordd. Mae'r ffordd yn cymdeithasol i'r ffordd Llenneri. Rhywun yn ffocws ar y rydw i'r ffordd Llywodraeth, ac Prof. Schwab ystod arno yn adael ar y ffordd Llywodraeth. Yn y gwybod wedi gweithio'r arwad, yw ychydig yn ymdweud o'r ble ymddangos yn llwynt gweithio. Mae'r gweithio'r pariadau. Mae'r rôl mewn i'r ffordd yn ysgrifennu'r wneud y ffordd Llywodraeth. Byddwch chi'n gwybod yr adnod ymlaen wahanol, rwy'n gweithio i'r ddim yn tynnu ddylch yn ddweud o'r cyfnodau sydd wedi'u gweithio'r iawn ar y Fforth Industrial Revolution. Rwy'n gweithio, i'n ddweud, yn ddweud, o technologi. Mae'r ddweud o gweithio'r technologi o'r llwyddiadau o'r ddweud o'r cyfnodau yn ffynu i'r ddweud. Oedd yn ddweud o ddweud o'r technologi o'r ddweud. Rwy'n gweithio'r gwahanol yw eich systemu oherwydd o'r ffordd, o'r ffordd, o'r ffordd, o'r ffordd o'r ffordd o'r ffordd o'r ffordd, o'r ffordd, o'r ffordd. Yr unrhyw oedd y pethau efo'r cyffredinot yw'r hyn yn eu cyfnodol, ond mae'n ei ddweud yn y gwybod o'r ffordd o'r ffordd o'r gweithio. Felly, i dwi'n rhoi'r ddigwydd yr unrhyw, yr unrhyw yn gofynion efo'r gweithiol, Felly, rydyn ni'n gwybod i'r llyfrnodd, rydyn ni'n gweithio i'r llyfrnodd, o'r Estonia. Rydyn ni'n gweithio i'r Justin, a Justin yn y profiad yw'r Carnig i Melon, rydyn ni'n gweithio i'r llyfrnodd ar gyfer teulu ac ymgyrch. Rydyn ni'n gweithio i'r Lethan Yw, rydyn ni'n gweithio i'r profiad yw'r Carnig i'r Lethan Yw. Andrew Maynard, angen chi yn unedigo'r Unedig Paenedd dlciwch. Rydyn ni'r angen eu lleol yn oeddeithas? Rydyn ni'n mynd i'r angen eu lleol yn oed ysgolol? Rydyn ni'n mynd i'n mynd i chi fel y Llywodraeth? Rydyn ni'n mynd i'n mynd i'n rhoi'r angen eu lleol yn oed. Joustine, yr y ffodol sy'n gwybod i chi. Rydyn ni'n mynd i'n rydyn ni'n ymddiadau o'r ffordd yn oed. Mae'r ysgol yw'r ysgol yma'r technologi, ydych chi yn dweud yma. A rwy'n meddwl rwy'n meddwl gwybod. a yw'r llefiad o'n mynd i i fi'ch fodnig ac ymgyrryd? Llywodraeth yw i'n credu gyda'r hunain cyflwyno. Ond mae hynny'n faith o'r cyflwyno cyflwyno ar hyn iawn o'r cyfrannu a' chi'ch cyfrannu. Yr unrhyw ffordd yn ydw i'r sefyll yn ei gwneud o'i tylion yng nghymryd, The move from an agrarian culture to an industrial culture meant the move from small family farms and businesses to people who were forced to act as cogs in machines. The fourth industrial revolution is machines acting as cogs in machines. In particular robots. It's interesting to remember that the word robot means surf in Czech. annwyd, mae geni ddim yn yrmwybod fydd ymddangos ar y ffordd a dim ddoedd cymwybod mewn gwahod o'r ffordd. Rwy'n meddwl, dwickwch yna gwaith dyma'r gweithredu fel y Lent yn ei wneud hynny ar y lle Rydym Yn Ffordd! Rwy'n meddwl am yr ymddangos ar gyfer biotechnologau a ddim yn ganddig i'r Humiliadau I'n gwneud – mae'n fryd yn gwyllfa ar gyfer â hyfyrwod mewn gwahanol. Felly y gallwn amgylchedd gan cyrraedd Ca Ca O. Felly, rwy'n amser o'w nid yn cyrraedd, rwy'n fwyath o'r modd ar y dyfodol a'r adroddau ar gyfer a'r adroddau ar gyfer. Y cyfnod cwplu'r system sy'n cyfnod, y cyfnod cyfnod, y caelwag hwnnw, i'r system yw caelwag hwnnw. Nid yw'r cyfnod hwnnw, yw'r cyfnod hwnnw, a dwi'n ddigon o'r cyflwyaf ac mae'n meddwl i'r cyflwyaf ydych chi. Rhywbeth y dyfodol yw'r cyflwyaf a'r cyflwynod yw'r cyflwyaf a'u cyflwyaf, rhaeddem i'r cyflwyaf yw'r cyflwyaf, a rhaeddem i fod yn dweud 40% mwy o ffordd. Ac mae'r ddysgau o'r ddysgau yma yn 6 ymlaen. Y cwmfynol yw'r ddysgau sydd wedi'i gwybod gyda'r cyfrifau cyfrifau ar gyfer y ddysgau, mae'r ddysgau ar y busnig. So mae'r ddysgau sy'n gweithio'r ddysgau, mae'r ddysgau yn ddysgau ar y busnig ar gyfer y sector. Rwy'n gweld, mae'r biotech yn ymddangos, mae'r ddysgau yn ddysgau'r ddysgau. Mae'r ddysgau'r ddysgau'r ddysgau genomell a genomell Pan mwyn ni fyddwn ni fel meddwl gwrthiol o'i'r gyfyrdd genedig ar gael datblygu'r chorifol, ond byddon maen nhw'n grifetau ar hyn o'r problemataniaeth blynedd, ondцы dyn ni'n pethau'r ysgol ysgol cysylltiad yng Nghymru, byddi ochr ychydig i'r cymrydd o'r gwerthu ac yn iesibl mai gyrddurau symudol yn cyfrifiad a'r cyddwr ar y teulu yn oed yn unig ar-gwrthu o'i cyfrifol. Felly dyn ni ysgol yng nghymoedd yn gwyllwch pan gweld y gyfrifol, ac mae'n gweithio sy'n gweithio leisio gyda GMO nifer. Mae'n cefnodd, chemicaer, rhan o'r mater, maen nhw'r rhai o gyffredig biobas. Mae'n ddiweddol am wahanol a phoblachio'r cyfnodd chemicaer. Sir Andrew, ydw'n cael ei bod yn cymhwysbeth yw ymgyrch yn cyffredig sy'n gweithio'r cyfnodd, mae'n cyfnodd o'r cyffredig sydd yn cyfnodd, yw'r cyffredig sydd yn cyfnodd? Ond mae'r cyffredig sydd yn cymrydiau? wrth fy moddaeth i'r meddwl. Yn ein bod sy'n meddwl yn teimlo yn meddwl? Mae'n meddwl, nhw'n cael ei gafodd dylwyddiadau that we couldn't do before. Mae fel y gallwn i'r meddwl o'r gwathau y cyd-fynol, a dy reopening am wnaeth ydw i chi'r meddwl, mae'n meddwl y gallwn teimlo i chi. Bydd angen nhw, ac maen nhw'n meddwl chi'n meddwl felly mae gennym o'r meddwl hunianol i chi.哔 am y peth o'r ffaith, mae'r ysgwrdd wedi'u bod ei wneud wneud Maybe five, ten years from now and imagine what you could do. Imagine going back to the robotics example you have a 3D printer in your home where you can actually 3D print at least the carapace of your robot, you can put open hardware inside it, you can attach an iPhone to it to make its ears and eyes, you can connect that to cloud artificial intelligence, you've now got a fusion of technologies which is way more powerful than any one of the individual technologies and that's the transformative nature. So, Thomas,your is how you see it,because you've obviously sort of looked at it through the lens,particularly of the DIGättehal agenda.How do you see these technologies coming together systematically. First let me just point out what has not been pointed out is that this if you want to call new industrial revolution differs from previous ones in that its rate of growth is exponential because it is making use of chips. As we know from Moore's Law, whether, I mean if the exponent remains the same it's not clear, but nonetheless we're going through an exponential increase in the power of a chip which means that if you have chip based technologies, industrial technologies, this will grow faster and faster. Now there are a number of implications for this. One of them might be just in that they'll know CSURFs, but there are no jobs either. I was hoping you'd bring that up. But that wasn't my main point. I mean there are a number of implications. That means that people who can retool themselves better get to work now. This has major implications for education. It means that people who are at a certain age will have a harder time. It means that countries or companies first of all that adopt these technologies will be growing exponentially relative to even a nice linear growth chart. Finally, countries that take this up will either take off or fall behind. I mentioned this primarily because I am not sure that the European Union with its current legislation and with the recent decision of the unsafe harbour would allow the data transfer even within Europe that is the cynic one on for any kind of IoT or internet of things to work. That's a longer discussion we can have later. There are lots of interesting things there about data. Bernie, let me come to you. One of the impacts seems to me about business models and particularly this issue of incumbency because I'm really interested in if you are someone in this audience or one of us who basically runs a large organisation, is this an opportunity or is it a fairly big threat? How do you look at all of this in terms of the power of change and incumbency? To net it out, imagine being strapped to the front of a locomotive travelling at high speed through a tunnel and you are a business doing this looking ahead and you see a light. This is one of those times because it is a revolution where you better know clearly whether that light is the light at the end of the tunnel or an oncoming train. The outcomes will be radically different if you make the wrong choice involving noises and other things. It is actually that kind of a revolution. The reason is we are moving from a physical to a data-based environment. There is a great quote from Ann Wynblood, Humboldt Wynblood Ventures, which is, data is the new oil and the reality of life is if you refine it, it will power the world and if you don't it will remain dark, damp and toxic and nothing good will come of it other than the demise. Every one of the previous revolutions has seen companies fall off a cliff that failed to take advantage but the time scale is incredibly compressed because it was very well said that you are dealing with a situation where even if the chips don't grow at speed, the volumes of data are so daunting that you have to deal with. The actual veracity of that data is such a challenge and the velocity at which you need to make decisions based on that data, this is something that every organization needs to comprehend because this revolution is already underway. That's the other thing. I don't want to get lost. This is not coming. We are in the revolution. If you doubt this, look at the behavior of your 14-year-olds who will sit on the same couch and text one another. This is a lesson that it's here already. So it's really a question of how we address it and it is a matter of survival, not a convenience. So impact at business levels, Justine, impact at personal level too, skills? Definitely, although I was going to continue on the business level because what's interesting about what Bernie said about moving from physicality to a data-based world is that that also means that business is going to be about distributed teams, about distance workers, dynamic collectives and that means that what we're exchanging is data over time about ourselves as well as about the things that we work on. Paradoxically, first of all, that's going to mean training people on an entirely new set of 21st century skills which are paradoxically the very oldest skills. So distance workers are going to need to know how to communicate, they're going to need to know how to collaborate, they're going to need to know empathy and respect for people from other cultures and how to overcome cultural boundaries. Perhaps one of the most striking things about that is the ways in which these newest technologies have met that challenge. So there's very interesting work going on as an example using virtual reality to teach empathy for people who are different from us and it's been very effective and it shows a transfer effect when you take off the head-mounted display. My own work on social AI, social artificial intelligence, uses AI systems to teach collaboration and communication, empathy and cultural respect in uniquely effective ways that would not be possible with prior kinds of engines. So one of the themes coming out of that is the power of collaboration and how you make that sort of work. Andrew, I was interested in sort of any observations you've got about. So how do you make these new collaborative models sort of work? Because it seems to me that we talk a lot about the sciences but actually part of the message here as well is that you've got to get new sort of human skills and qualities into the mix as well. So how do you do that and what really matters here? So there is an enormous human factor here and I think all too easily we forget about the humans that are going to be part and parcel of the system. So there are two or three challenges here. One of the challenges is culture. How do you actually develop a culture of collaboration which is going to work within the capabilities and possibilities of the fourth revolution? The other part of this is governance because of course if you go back to the Bernie's example with the train going down the tunnel and the light at the end you don't have enough time to wait for your government to come up with the right regulations that tell you what to do 20 years into the future. Somehow you've got to act without that framework. So one of the very human challenges is how do you develop institutions that are adaptive and responsive without being told what to do by some large organisation? So Thomas what's the answer to that question? So how do we adapt government structures to Professor Schwab's talk this morning about the speed of technology and how that sort of you match that to the speed of the legislative process and it seems to me we've got a fundamental disconnect coming up. How are we going to address that? Well I think it's there already. I addressed a group of European Parliament, Parliamentarians explaining Moore's law saying well by the time your next election comes up a leadership will be two to the third times more powerful and when he asks me what's two to the third? And I think what we're facing here is the two cultures dilemma described at the university level in 1959 by C.P. Snow the culture of science and quantitative science in the end humanities and literature writ large across the world and we see this today by geeks who without thinking at all about ethics or knowing anything about ethics will devise new and new ways to track people or do whatever it is that you can do and on the other hand you have people who are legislating who don't know what to the third power is. So the problem that was at Cambridge Cambridge University in the UK in 1959 is now a problem of all of us because technology is permeated throughout our lives. So what is to be done? The Lenin question I'm not sure but I would certainly tell everyone to at least make their children learn math. OK, so what we're saying so far is that we've got different technologies coming together. We can see impact in terms of government impact, business impact, individual impact. I'm just very keen that we don't look at this always through the old Western lens. So Sonia, when you look at this and you listen to those sorts of messages are we missing something? Is there something other that we should be sort of thinking about? Because what we always sort of are seeing is the reality of if you like global interconnectedness interspersed with political localism and I think it's very important that we understand that dynamic. So how do you look at it particularly with your Korean lens on? I think a fundamental issue we have to always have in mind is as we all agree humanity and human dignity at the bottom that should drive the everything we are doing including education for the future. And also if you look at the industry obviously there's a disruption going on towards probably we can put it as shared economy. So social commons will become more and more important and if you look at the history of Korea that's what they have been doing all the days before this high tech comes in but with this forced industrial revolution actually this group of technologies are allowing us to think about the past where we were more connected in humanity wise and also walk together as a group and family matter. So I think there will be a lot of changes happening around the world but one more thing acting as an important factor is it's not just information flow anymore not just internet of things but it's going to be now physical atoms will be spread at the speed of light so what fundamental portfolio of industry will change according to this kind of revolution. OK I want to go to the ethical questions in a second but just before I go there Bernie what are we missing so far in this sort of integrated technology world what is it OK that we might not be seeing which sort of determines whether we are on a sort of a railway crash zone or not so surprise us with what are we missing. There's always a balance there's a temptation to say we'll virtualize everything I will outsource my life basically to others when you have distributed manufacturing one of the dangers is people say well I can move the manual labor and just bid it out to the world over the web and get stuff in but there comes a critical point at which humans have a key place in all of this we tend to lose the fact that the R&D are we going to actually replace my illustrious professorial colleagues with a bunch of robots and I would argue no we're not. You know it gets lost somewhere that for instance Watson when it won in Jeopardy the very famous first public example there was an 80 kilowatt bank of machines behind a wall and two poor guys running 20 watts each between their ears who actually gave it a good fight and came close so this 4,000 fold discontinuity in energy consumption alone tells you humans bring something to the fight and we haven't even got close so there's going to be a core a large core of organizations that must remain that make use of that human trait the ability to do the innovation the ability to do the research that enables this entire thing that will not be outsourced in point of fact actually with a little bit of luck people will focus more on that realizing the value in it because this change will create new opportunities you need to have that core of people to not only do it but also maintain the culture of an organization that understands the need to invest in the R&D that understands the ethical dilemmas that will come up in terms of displacing people at the low end of the effort spectrum the services you referred to them but providing them with the upskilling so that they remain parts of the organization they simply have different roles it's much more complex than just source everything out over the internet because we have all this data that we can base it upon so Thomas is just going online here he's just checking something out what have you found out? I just want to check a reference that MIT review on the 22nd of October actually had a piece about which really takes the old cable car sort of snapping going into a crowd and the question is what do you do and brings it to the the self-driven car the question is then what do you do if your self-driving car is heading toward a crowd do you program the computer to drive into a wall thereby killing the driver or do you not and so in fact there are ethical issues here where the agency is given to a computer so it's not as if the ethical issues can't be part of the computer in fact they probably will have to be and in fact I would argue that with the range of issues that will come up with self-driving cars or even arise already today with highly programmed cars that involve security privacy, data integrity these things we have I think the technology is going far ahead of our own thinking about all of the implications of these things but you said the key word which is it will be programmed, I have to finish that sentence by humans, that's a key part of so then you become accessory to a murder by saying maybe but as a programmer it gets back to it's a human decision still if I could bring these two people together for a long time the holy grail of artificial intelligence has been autonomy and agency and what's interesting about that is that in our push to create autonomous systems which artificial intelligence researchers have called most like us there seems to have been a forgetfulness about the fact that we are not autonomous we are interdependent and so I think what we need to see in the future is the development of machines that are as interdependent as we are with humans with one another and that that really needs to be the fifth industrial revolution or the second half of the fourth industrial revolution because it's going to be collaborations between people and machines amongst machines that's going to make a society that we can be proud of and that does most resemble us and I think another way of thinking about that you talked about issues having to do with other countries and you asked this question we have a choice here we can be colonizers of other countries or we can be one big family one big team and the choice is ours the third industrial revolution was about and it's my most cherished hope that the fourth industrial revolution will be about respect for the various different talents that everybody around the world brings to the table excellent point I think it's sort of societal impact so Andrew help us to frame the ethical issues here because it seems to me that there are lots of ethical issues potentially going forward so help us to understand what should we be thinking through those ethical issues what are the principles that underpin the way that we should be thinking about the choices and trade-offs here I think there are a number of dimensions here but some of the fundamental principles are where do we want to be as a society what do we value as a society and most of the answers to that come down to health well-being basic human rights so these are all human things rather than machine things the challenges we face getting back to Justine's point I think everybody who is part of this industrial revolution wants to see a better world at the end of the day but without forethought and foresight that will not happen the reality is that this is happening now and if we don't have some say in where it goes we can guarantee it will end up in multiple train wrecks and we know that because if you look at every previous industrial revolution it will come out of it and great bad and usually every next industrial revolution is trying to fix the problems of the previous one so what would you recommend to get us ahead of the curve because it seems to me precisely that's the problem what would you recommend what would you do to get ahead of the curve so first of all I would say we're really bad at this if you just look at isolated emerging technologies we really haven't cracked this and so it's hard to say exactly what we should do but there are certain elements to it one is we've got to be way more transdisciplinary than we are at the moment we've got to get the social scientists working with the technologists with the scientists, with the policy makers with the regulators with members of the public because if you don't have that coalition you won't have the understanding of how these converging technologies going to evolve in society who is going to be harmed and what is going to be harmed so you've got to have that merging in a way that we've never had before and that means understanding how to communicate between those different stakeholders as well that's number one secondly we've got to be able to have the ability to at least peer a little bit over the horizon we will never do that completely but one of the challenges we face is we're developing what are essentially highly complex closely coupled systems that we know are subject to catastrophic failure and one of the characteristics of catastrophic failure is everything looks like it's running perfectly until it's not and we need those abilities to be able to identify the early warnings of when things are beginning to fall apart so we can take corrective action we have no mechanism for doing that at the moment that's going to require serious investment which goes all the way from multiple sciences all the way through to very practical action at the level of big decision makers Thomas how do we do that because it seems to be that when we look at it through the government lens it's all basically siloed vertical and short term that's not a recipe for what we've just been talking about first of all I mean at a most fundamental level what I said before about what is two to the third power unless we get our lawyers and the people who write our laws understanding technology we won't go far we simply won't really I mean we can develop all kinds of technology but much of it will end up being illegal at least in liberal democratic societies take the issue of privacy or privacy depending where you're from I mean that has been the big issue for tech related issues for three years now I would submit that while that is important with what we are about what we are already engaged in far more important would be data integrity that because privacy or privacy is if someone knows your blood type and you don't want them to know it integrity is someone changing your blood type I mean ultimately someone knows my blood type so what if someone changes my blood type I can end up dead so the data integrity is a very important issue that we have to start worrying about in ways that no one ever really did before so to the legal environment for transferring data it's all wonderful we now have a safe harbor agreement there was no data going to the bad United States well the problem is actually if you read the thing maybe no data can cross borders and what happens if you're driving a Mercedes with a computer hook up and then you reach the Belgian border and then your car stops because you're not allowed to transfer those data so I mean the implications of these are huge and we need to start thinking about this one of the big challenges for governments and lawyers to think about these things far more than they have because clearly they haven't I was going to know Bernie just we haven't talked about market forces yet so everybody sort of starts getting very sort of cautious about sort of how we should be sort of careful about some of these sort of technologies what's your view as a businessman about the role of sort of market forces and where is the balance act between sort of letting market forces rip and the whole question about the ethical side how does that play out this entire revolution has led to an entirely different behavior in the market which the government has never been able to adapt to what I mean by that this has moved the entire balance from those who have the big capex organizations to those who aspire who basically base their entire operation on apex in other words when you want to start a business that impacts 50 million individuals and it's going to do this in 12 months previously you would have just laughed at the concept today you would simply access a cloud I don't care if it's Microsoft Azure or if it's you know Amazon Google IBM it doesn't matter you would access a cloud you'd get five or six web designers and you'd execute your business plan Facebook there was a hockey stick phenomena where they had no business no business no business and then it went vertical to 20 million in a span of a couple of months when that happens the market force is something that is almost inconceivable before this era because you never had the ability to operate purely on apex operating expense versus some massive capital input as a consequence the market force is simply unprecedented because somebody can stand up a business that shuts yours down in a matter of an eye blink compared to the previous day what it means therefore is you've got to rethink things like corporate governance you can't have a quarterly strategy meeting it's meaningless because you may not be here next quarter it is an inconceivable situation where there are companies that make annual plans you've got to be kidding this is a different world and therefore the market forces will now have they're literally and you can see it they're driving continuity or what they call I love buzzwords forgive me I hate them like agile you know we're going to have agile companies you know what it means it means look in the rear of your mirror you're about to get run over it means you have to move with unprecedented drive to stay ahead because even the little person that you could have ignored ten years ago the literally the garage group can stand up a company that will eat yours overnight and that's a whole different world we play in and a lot of companies that fail to adapt will simply fail to exist so it's a market force so this is the exponential effect which is sort of driving speed trying to put a bit of sort of describing what speed means particularly when you got exponential Soniwp I'm interested again sort of coming back to you in terms of your sort of perspectives about exponential speed what you sort of see happening what are some of the challenges around that sort of give us your perspective on that well exponential is my favourite world by the way because I work on micro-organisms and they grow exponentially however not to the end they reach stationary phase and start to die so I think that has actually similar implications on business sector if I take Bernie's comment actually I had an interesting experience two weeks ago with a small company I asked to consult actually we came up with the same conclusion that we're not going to generate annual report anymore it's going to be monthly report so I basically so you're going to end up just writing report all the time instead of doing business so I think exponential grows obviously leads to this saturation point because you lose all the resources you can use to continue exponential growth and that has a meaning and with the increasing population expected to reach 9 billion we have to consider every single factor in an integrate manner energy, food, all these things right and for that matter business has to be reshuffled for the shared economy model reduced consumption forget about the GDP anymore I hope World Economic Forum will redefine the economic data representation method so probably it's going to be happiness index or whatever so we are seeing all these changes due to this exponential so I think some key words are coming out the exponential dimension of this the connectivity thing the question about real-time data Thomas I know you want to come back in on that data point I just want to say I think we can forget about statistics well not quite but at least extrapolating where you will be based on your previous performance is an outdated notion I mean our governments predict things based on where you have been for the last year, last five years well now at least my country is going over real-time data so you know where you are you don't have to extrapolate I think that one other key difference will be once we get far enough certainly we are doing it in my country is that after 5,000 years of serial processing handling paper which a priori is serial because it goes from one office to the next office to the next office you can dramatically increase the agility if you will of governance of administration because you can do things with parallel processing so things that used to go from ministry to ministry to department to agency and would have to follow the paper now can actually be you can do all those simultaneously which actually does improve governance dramatically if you do it right so I'm going to come to the audience because I know that I suspect that you've got a number of questions in your mind about what really is this fourth industrial revolution about I want to come to you because we're a very fortunate privileged group in this room we've got a lot of skills and we're very talented individuals what does all of this mean for the people who aren't nearly as fortunate as we are and my worry is that we look at this through if one lens is the western lens another lens is we're the people who are going to be able to cope with this because we've got a lot of skills and we've got a lot of talents and a lot of our children have got to cope with it as well but there are a lot of people who are less fortunate than us what does that mean for them and what should we be doing to sort of help them cope with this new world right I think what you're referring to is this notion of the digital haves and have nots and there is the prospect of a dangerous gap an economic gap between those who earn a large amount of money and those who earn none and in parallel those who can buy themselves a beautiful body and increased health and cognitive augmentation that's a kind of digital have and have not that I think we haven't thought about before so in an era where machines are us then that notion of the digital haves and have nots takes on a much more important significance what do we do when we know that in the future you will be able to buy for your children not just the most expensive schools but also the most expensive brains to use in those schools and there I think a market forces isn't enough that we have to remember to invest in people and that digital have and have nots is not just access to machines it's the ability to use machines machines one of the things that I think is very interesting about the role of artificial intelligence in the fourth revolution fourth industrial revolution is that the same AI that's leading to radical changes in all of our world radical changes in science radical changes in medicine is also leading to radical changes in education and so whereas the rise of a robotic society is making us worry about our jobs the rise of just in time education that can be projected around the world and by this I don't mean the current version of videotaped lectures projected to another country because that's not education it never worked in a classroom and it's not going to work any better when it's videotaped and spread somewhere around the world but this same AI embedded into new kinds of educational systems can give everybody the ability to self augment that is to retrain for new jobs to understand the new world in a different way because artificial intelligence is about adaptation and it could be about adaptation to the size of a jar that you put in a packing case or it could be about adaptation to a new world in which your old job is no longer available so I like the self augmentation point I know Andrew wants to come in so equity disparity I think is a huge issue if we don't think through the consequences however I would say don't underestimate the emerging economies and I would say we actually potentially have an issue where the disparity flips the other way so I have a Nigerian colleague who has an idea of ABBA made ABBA a city in Nigeria where they make knock off goods incredibly cheap for the local community and he was speculating that they're now beginning to pull together bits and pieces of emerging technologies magpie fashion but because of the accessibility of these technologies across the net they can now do things that other emerged technologies cannot far faster and I think what we're going to find is some of these almost marginalised economies faster and sleeker at doing this than we are great so let's try and get a little bit of audience reaction I'm going to take a few comments from you so if you want to participate can you just put your hand up, introduce yourself try and keep it short and we'll take a number of different inputs so any comments, questions from the floor there are so let's go one in the middle here there's one at the back there's a lady at the back so yeah my name is Bjorn I'm from Norway, engineer I wondered if you could comment on process intensification which is going on in the process industries because traditionally if you think about process industries like a cement factory is huge fertiliser factories are huge plastics factories are huge and so they are going to be capital intensive with process intensification you can imagine people having factories in their garage and how I would interplay with what you are discussing here process identification at the back intensification sorry hello I am Gabriella Alfonsof a global shaper from Caracas I'm only in the fourth revolution but as the professor Shrop told this morning it's not about the big fish eating the small one but the fast eating the slow the slow worst one so as it is faster and very veracity the gap will be wider and the gap will grow faster as well as it advances so which advice can you give to the governments that do not have innovation in their agendas because they are very focused on solving the basic needs of crisis for example in Venezuela which advice can you give to make attractive innovation to this under developed countries thank you there's a question here my name's Robert Lawrence I'm from the United States I'm having a bit of cognitive dissonance because I'm an economist and I'm trying to reconcile the picture that you've painted with the data that we see which suggest that our economies have been growing extraordinarily slowly that the potential growth in the United States for instance is projected to slow down dramatically that investment in equipment for instance has been extraordinarily weak not strong so if there's all this potential out there how come we're not growing and how come we're not investing okay and I think there's one more question just behind you sir hi I'm Paul Hogan I'm the founder of home instead senior care and as I imagine us coming out on the other end of this fourth revolution I also imagine that there may be some advantages for companies that use the fact that their products are made and sold by real people kind of like we we endear ourselves the companies that are eco friendly today maybe that's an opportunity that we get further into this fourth revolution I'd be interested in your comments on that okay Bernie I'm going to start with you growth investment challenge how are you your investment decisions being impacted by all this stuff that we're talking about just to focus because there are many different types of investments there are investments where economy of scale wins independent of anything else and the answer to the regional query you can't change that the fact is building 700 small factories that are going to do cement probably isn't as efficient having said that there is a lesson from the steel industry that actually some of the small mills that were more nimble and could adapt more quickly ate some of those huge mills that didn't adapt at all but the counterpoint to that to what you're getting at is when you're running a large enterprise you still need to be data driven that's what arrives that's usually what kills people it's not that they don't know what the right thing is to do but the decision mechanisms are so painfully slow and burdens no I'm not talking about government yet that what happens is you wind up lagging behind the curve and a small nimble organization that doesn't have history to overcome can defeat you so what eventually happens is you need to either adapt the same modus operandi or you learn fast you fail fast you just try it again or you disappear it is that cut and dried that is a market force nobody actually wants to go out of business I haven't find a lot of people volunteering for unemployment and dispersing 400,000 employees but it forces you to make dramatic changes in the time at which you execute because otherwise you will not survive and that is a market force Thomas I'm not an economist but what we're talking about are phenomena that we observe but they're actually at a they're not really widespread yet so I think that's one reason why you don't see this grow I would also say that if you take previous industrial revolutions they will also have secondary effects I mean until Henry Ford invented the production line and there were enough cars there was no need for construction companies to build overpasses there never were overpasses until you had lots of cars so so I think that's one reason I think another reason in the future for lack of GDP growth is that you will have you will see a lot of people without jobs I mean this is the thing we're worrying about and McAfee has in his book from two years ago I guess I mean the problem is that you will actually not need as many people produce a lot of things with robotics and with newer technologies and that are people that I mean a lot of manual labour will be replaced and what to do with that that will be a drag on society Sengyn, what about the speed issue the fast versus slow the whole question about the sort of the faster are going to eat the slower not always I don't think so because I mean if you look at the all different business types faster ones sometimes eat less faster one but not always the slow one I think if you have this solid business model that cannot be just changed by this fashionable upcoming fast moving thing they might disappear in a couple of years and then consumers choose the old ones but I want to comment on different one that's process intensification though because it's someone linked if you compare with world energy consumption human beings use about 13 billion ton of oil equivalent per year and unfortunately 87% comes from fossil resources so we are just burning it to the air and renewables we talk a lot but it's still only 2.4% so if you look at the this large scale production of plastics, steel etc everything starts with the energy input right but this energy input will fundamentally change over the whatever number of years and I'm very curious about the results of COP21 but if you change the energy source obviously that will reshuffle the structure of this such a large scale production facilities maybe this can be a little bit more distributed or maybe it's staying in the same manner but they just use different routes so instead of petroleum they just use for example biomass so we will see a lot of changes but again it depends on the circumstances and policies we are going to agree on So Justine if I was going to paraphrase one of the questions which is the fourth industrial revolution relevant for Venezuela how would you answer that question? Absolutely, I actually think like you said that it's the same answer to the question about economics as it is to the question about Venezuela so you can imagine that it takes a truck a long time to stop when it sees a dead end in front of it and has to decide whether to keep under the dead end or to turn right and I think in some sense that's what we're seeing we're seeing the large come slowly to a halt replaced by and I know you're going to love this Bernie the nimble taking a quick right turn or left turn into a kind of business where there's a 3D printer in somebody's garage and I think the same issue holds for smaller countries that have typically not had the development capabilities of larger but slower countries so for example the use of mobile devices is much larger in what we think of as the developing nations than it is in what we think of as the developed nations and because of that most of the economic innovation around mobile devices has happened in those developing nations which I think is really interesting I think there were one or two more people who have questions so let's just try and get a couple more points and then we'll go for a final round of comments from the panel anybody else want to come in there's a point over there Kevin Murphy from the US could we get three or four examples of where the fourth generation industrial revolution is indeed different from the third or the second James Xavier from Belgium and also a resident of Estonia actually I wanted to ask the question of technology is all about reducing the workload for people and so indeed it's going to be putting a lot of people out of job and the question is about the basic income and I wanted to know what you think about it and I think one of the biggest challenges is the inequality of revenue for people and I think there's a last comment at the back then thank you very much very interesting discussion but I would like to bring it a little bit to grassroots we are well most of us are excited about the sustainable development goals how can the fourth industrial revolution support the proper implementation of the sustainable development goals let's say to end hunger or to find solutions for climate change okay panels so we got examples we got linkage to SDGs we got what does it mean for grassroots work and I think the other question I want you to come back to is what does it mean for us as leaders so Bernie you've got the baton first pick one of those and give us a thought an example and maybe just sort of a conclusion about for us as leaders what's all of this really mean as far as examples I mean people are familiar Clouds spoke of it well the example of Watson or AI as used in the case of oncology is a simple example there you have a diagnosis that it spits out and there's actually an example out there on the web you can look up this from Bloomberg where it spit out an answer in about 17 seconds to a question as to why a woman had a very unusual form of cancer given was a lung cancer, she didn't smoke she had certain traits and when they fed it into the system it took the corpus of knowledge it ingested which was 3500 books about 400,000 documents papers basically and about 100,000 other studies and in 17 seconds spit out the fact that she had a genetic abnormality that had just been actually found in a recent paper that explained why she'd come down with this particular cancer now there isn't a chance in the world in fact that an oncologist no matter how well read would have seen this because they read about five papers a month not the hundreds of thousands that are generated over time and so it's a whole different world where it is hybrid you actually unlike all the other revolutions which involve physicality this is a hybrid intelligence between the human who's the physician who recognizes that this is an exotic case that violates a normative expectation because you would expect her to have been a smoker or exposed working alongside an intelligence as to the implications the acceleration of business is really the fundamental issue I mean we could talk about lots of other things but there will be this dramatic acceleration and it has an upside and a downside the upside is you can stand up a new business almost overnight and therefore for the start up it's fantastic it's a risk of course for the large organizations which have to adapt at the same pace the other side and answer in fact to the GDP question I've always had this concern in the back of my mind and it's better an economist do this than a physicist it works better that way is this also however an era where because of this very acceleration you have a dramatically accelerated cycle of commoditization where you take this high value thing you've developed and overnight commoditize it using the exact same competitive capabilities what does that do to the growth of GDP when that can happen because it actually has some normative effect it's an interesting question I won't attempt to answer but it's one I would look to the organization here to tackle Andrew first of all a point I think we have to be very careful of hype here certainly how I see technologies emerging it's going to be transformative that doesn't mean it's going to be transformative for good I don't yet think there is a guarantee that we're going to see economic growth I don't think there's a guarantee we're going to see sustainability goals for instance addressed we need to work out how to steer the revolution towards the things we want to see happen secondly very quickly an example I would use rogue gene editing so five years ago nobody had even thought of the ability to introduce a genetic change into a population to people into insects into other organisms and make them spread through the whole population now we can do it we can do it relatively easily the information is freely available on the net the technologies to actually write the new genetic codes are available we can go rogue on this what are we going to do about it and finally the big message if we're going to steer our way to a better future through this revolution we need heavy investment from leaders for foresight how do we bring people together how we navigate through it to a better future great, Sengyn I can mention about the linkage to sustainability we're not going to rely on fossil resources anymore and this forced industrial revolution and related technologies especially emerging technologies will contribute significantly to moving away from these fossil resources and go renewables that's possible because of this optimization issue we can optimize much better than before through all these advances in ICT and other sensing technologies et cetera plus we have an opportunity to reduce waste by improving everything including logistics and others through the use of such emerging technologies so I think we will be contributing significantly through the use of such emerging technologies towards achieving sustainability thank you Justin first of all the question about values I want to follow up on what Andrew said five years ago when the AI and robotics council was founded then it was known as robotics and smart devices we wrote a white paper suggesting that there needed to be a model for the development and deployment of new technologies in the robotics and smart device space and the core of that model was that not just technical and economic factors needed to be taken into account but also legal slash regulatory, social and cultural factors and that unless all of those factors were taken together we would not be fulfilling our own values in the development of technology second an example it's so common to hear people throw around the term the phrase big data and in fact machine learning people don't really use this anymore it's interesting to machine learning researchers is small data but we'll leave that for another discussion what machine learning does with big data is not throw all that data at some kind of algorithm and out pops an answer and unfortunately Bernie you kind of made it sound like that throw all those factors about that woman at some kind of algorithm and out pops an answer in fact what we do with machine learning is we do what's called mixed initiative learning that's really the most powerful kind where a scientist with a hypothesis shares the initiative on finding a solution with a machine that can learn about massive amounts of data and draw inferences from them because that's what machine learning is it's taking a massive amount of data or a small amount of data and drawing inferences from more data than one human can look at in time so that kind of mixed initiative learning leads to really interesting solutions and what comes to mind to me is work by a very talented young faculty member at Carnegie Mellon Daniel Neil who's been predicting epidemics from a mixture of kinds of data data from Twitter feeds and this is work I think he's done primarily in Brazil data from Twitter feeds data from over the counter pharmacy sales that is drugs that are not prescription drugs and then hospitalizations and what he's found is he can predict particularly serious epidemics by the mixture of mentions on Twitter and the purchase of inappropriate drugs over the counter if you can use the prediction up to that point because a scientist is looking at the data you can save yourself from the third part which is people coming into the emergency room too sick to be saved and I would say as a final point what message I would give to a leader in everything I've said today and I think most of what all of us has said is leaders need to continue and manifest even more their faith in people and their investment in people and their investment in machines that collaborate tightly with people Great Thomas, last word First of all on the Venezuela thing question after 70 years of operation the World Bank has finally gotten to the point where they've realized that development might be related to IT and the first world development report on IT or development and IT will appear in January of 2016 that's a plug because I'm co-chairman of the group that's doing it but it's about 350 pages you get all kinds of things in there that'll come out in January and I hope we'll be able to we'll talk about it at Davos so another plug my worries and this has to do with leadership and leadership and my worries is that all this is really wonderful stuff but I still maintain that it's wonderful as long as we remain liberal democracies if you are not if you have an illiberal non-democratic system all of the wonderful things that we have talked about here could be used very badly and I mean one example which we probably don't I mean it's not the fourth revolution is the third but basically you know when I was a kid I read 1984 and there was a there's a television that's two-way what are you doing? oh well when will we ever see that? well anyone who has a computer I would advise you all to tape over your camera because it is one of these things the world to do is to hack into your computer and it's a two-way television so 1984 in that sense has been around for at least 15 years so with that the opportunity and the challenge I think I would just sort of close to doing this hour is just give you a glimpse I think of what the fourth industrial revolution is all about and if you think about some of the phrases that have been used the hybrid intelligence the issue about faith in people and I think trying to sort of understand something about the opportunity and the challenge ahead is what I think this is all about and there will be more coming out about the fourth industrial revolution but there is an opportunity for you to comment I'm sure many of you have got views if you go into the top link and look under the discussion there is a question about what's going on in the fourth industrial revolution and we'd really like you to contribute because I think what we've just done is begun to start the dialogue and all of you have got insights and perspectives all of you can contribute to this discussion and I think as we've just tried to illustrate come back to sort of thinking about the multiplicity of technologies the impact this can have and what it means for leadership I think the key message that I've just finished with is it's all going to go exponential and that is going to challenge all of our assumptions around what we do as leaders so with that have a great evening thanks very much for listening and particularly thanks very much to the panel