 What's up guys this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list and if you are here at this video it's probably because you survived a chaotic week last week with FOMC and also big tech earnings. There is a couple things that that do happen this week. You can go to the economic calendar here. We have nothing scheduled for Monday luckily. Tuesday we do have Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington. This could be a non-event since pretty much what he said. You know people could take what he said at the FOMC meeting as written in stone already. He was pretty dovish. He didn't really give any hawkish tones that scared the market. Pretty much he did it exactly what was expected. They only did a 0.25 basis point hike and we were hoping you know bears were hoping at least that you know you would see him kind of you know put economic conditions you know back in place where you know where they should be with rate hikes and you know through a rate hike cycle which is normally I mean it's going to have pressure on earnings. It's going to have a pressure on the economy etc. You could just see here in his voice he's a little bit more optimistic but where we're headed we're not seeing you know a tightening in the labor market as well as inflation coming down which kind of gives it that soft landing narrative right that you know everybody was hoping for. The other within Jerome Powell speaking Tuesday we do have Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr speaking as well. Wednesday we have more Fed speakers. We've got John Williams, Fed Governor Lisa Cook. We've got Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr and the Atlantic Fed President Raphael Bostic. We also have Minnie Annapolis, Fed President Neil Kashkari, Fed Waller as well. So a bunch of Fed speakers so I mean be prepared to see you know some shiny headlines come out on the newswire. We have initial jobless claims continuing jobless claims gives a little hint into the labor market. Another thing with the labor market at the F1C meeting you could just see that Powell was pretty much kind of shrugging off the labor market and maybe you know it didn't really matter that we haven't seen that dip you know in the labor market that you know everybody was hoping for to show that Fed policy is working because regardless inflation is still coming down. We're barely seeing tightening in the labor market and that does give the soft landing narrative you know that everybody's hoping for. We do have Friday which I would argue this is the biggest economic data of the week it's the consumer sentiment this does give you know mid-session volatility about 30 minutes after the open it always comes out at 10 o'clock on Fridays so keep a lookout for that. We also have Fed Governor Waller speaking another Fed guy Patrick Harker speaking as well but other than that we do have limited event risk this week so all the big tech earnings is out of the way F1C meeting is out of the way which hopefully will give us a pretty good insight into how the market trend will go throughout here from now on. If Fed Powell doesn't want to talk back to market after interpreting a dovish Fed we could see a continued rally if he does want to walk back and put the market back in its place to you know where originally everybody thought it would be you know it could be bearish so I would say Powell Tuesday is probably the most probably has the most you know event risk out of everything otherwise big tech earnings are all out of the way you know the interest rate decision is made and the F1C meeting is out of the way. Well let's go ahead and get into our first setup here we're looking at UPS I really like how this is breaking out here you can see we had asymmetrical wedge forming you got your downtrend line you got test one test two made a test three finally breaking out one thing you do want to see UPS do here is a break and hold over 190 160 190 160 comes from this pivot right here where you see the red line marked and the red arrow we want to see UPS getting over that holding as new support maybe even keep seeing the MACD holding a positive signal which currently is then if you zoom in here this is a positive MACD signal your main level of focus just make sure it's holding outside of the breakout make sure it gets over 190 160 and holds and then you know that can maybe take you up to 296 which is this little peak resistance right here before having just a terrible sell off yeah that's UPS looking at calls on that by the way we do have an upside bias for UPS here looking at calls next we're going into CVX if you turned into the last video we only had three setups but one we did have was Exile puts and that was because it pulled up in the supply and I think mainly Exile did pull back because you know CVX has such a big influence you know being one of the top weighted names inside the Exile index but this week it is pulling directly into support at 166 83 166 83 it comes from this pivot right here and we want to see it making a base here maybe even reverse to the upside then we see it reverse to the upside you'd probably be looking for 50 EMA area which you can see right here is the 50 EMA if it pulls up into the 50 EMA you could probably look for short term resistance about there and that's assuming it does make the base so that'd be your first price target just that short term 50 EMA well I can't even really say a short term because this is the daily time frame so you know the moving average is going back 50 days and implementing that into an average that's your more medium term moving average your longer term is obviously your 200 EMA which is this one on the bottom right here yeah for CVX here we're looking at calls this would be a counter trend reversal play you can see despite you know market redness spy down QQQ down we do have CVX holding up 0.26% so a close green you can consider that relative strength Exile was a relative weakness play so we had oil down Friday brought market up and that was a relative weakness plate maybe displaying a rotation out of energy and now you can see why our bare thesis on Exile did come into play and energy did sell off that week one setup that didn't work last week was boil which is a natural gas play it looked very oversold but Monday morning it instantly gap down like 14% so this is before I mean anybody could even enter luckily so hopefully everybody you know saw that 14% gap down you know thought twice you know before entering and looking for upside because that did indicate you know very very very strong relative weakness so that was one setup that didn't work last week you know they're not all going to work you know we did have Exile work out pretty good and our index analysis was pretty good as well so we'll get into that soon but otherwise CVX looking at calls 166 83 support looking for a move up to daily 50 EMA one thing you do have going against you MACD is negative if you're skeptic maybe wait for that to turn positive before you know trying to catch upside momentum so this will be for counter trend traders looking to get you know a dip and buy low next we're going into X the United States steel which has a crazy run really nice rally probably due to US Steel soaring to highs you can see down here in this little you see down here in this little newswire alert US Steel source to nine month high as steel shipments seen rising this year one thing I like about X here overextended to the upside pulling into the 61.8 percent retracement if you aren't familiar with the 61.8 percent retracement it is called the global ratio and when you're measuring Fibonacci levels in a downtrend the 61.8 is usually a very strong resistance point and you could see that in this FXI example here retraced all the way back hit the 61.8 strong resistance for about a you know week or two going to HYG which is high yield corporate bond ETF you can see the same thing you get a downtrend we measure down from high to low pulls up into 61.8 strong resistance for about a week or two so I just want to show you why X here can see resistance it's pulling up into the 61.8 you got a strong sellers wick and you can see our two points are just from this you know 52 week high or maybe it's an all-time high you know down to this recent low and you can see why I got this huge sellers wick because I just pulled right into the 61.8 which is usually a strong resistance point for people to take profit go down to the short term you can see clear resistance probably algorithms other traders you know just responding to the 61.8 retracement so I really like X here for puts price targets you'd obviously be looking you know maybe back down to the 50 retracement you can even be maybe a little more conservative than that if you wanted to just go down to the shorter time frames or maybe you could use this level right here it's previous resistance at 2891 as a short-term price target I don't care how you do it you know just make sure you're not you know shooting all the way down for lows or something because markets can change instantly so mostly for projections on swing trades I'm looking you know for you know short-term moves like something like a you know hold for a couple days maybe a week or two and then you know get out because I'm more of a short-term trader as are a lot of people because then you can just use that cash you made and implement it into a different sector or idea yeah X looking at puts on this clear 61.8 retracement rejection with a strong sellers wick you do have the mac do you going against you do you have a positive signal here so keep an eye out on that stop loss would need to be over this high arc looking at the same thing so with our 61.8 percent retracement thesis you can see pulled up into 61.8 pretty much at strong resistance at the 200 e-maze well right here also had a supply zone which formed over here and carried out into resistance over here so you do have another 61.8 percent retracement set up here and like I said earlier you know golden ratio strong resistance every time it pulls in if it decides to get over it's obviously that could invalidate it so if it does get over the 61.8 you know maybe this similar setup would not play up and you can see the same thing with fxi so just resistance same thing I showed you earlier so that's what we'll be looking at on x and arc both 61.8 percent retracement setups you'll be looking for resistance continued resistance if you wanted for arc maybe wait for this friday low to get taken out which would be at 4210 so if it gets under 4210 that gives you you know pretty clear shot down to the next demand zone which forms right here this is a rally rally base rally demand zone so you could see it you know get down to there and try to base out about there and that said about the 40 range so arc looking at puts next we're going into pdd a chinese ticker you see it formed a rising wedge is now breaking the uptrend you got test one test two multiple tests here another test right there and finally starting to break down ideally you'd see a move down to 89 36 comes from that pivot low right there I could just see it now coming down to that area probably try to base out about there maybe hold up the 50 ema as a general area of support we type in fxi which is the etf for chinese large caps you can see a similar setup which could also validate the bare thesis and if you guys aren't up up to date with the news we did shoot down a chinese spy balloon apparently not sure if that will heat up relations between us and china but it's something to consider considering you know the ccp did respond and say that you know they could respond in a similar fashion and shoot down something of ours so just something to keep an eye on but you can see i mean fxi same thing test one test two test three breaking down the wedge finally broke the uptrend line probably could see you know that moved down to the 200 ema and 50 ema confluence right here so if you wanted to i mean you could look at puts on fxi instead of pdd um fxi does have really good liquidity on the options so it has you know strong volume and open interest pdd usually spreads are a little bit wider implied volatility is pretty high so the the premiums can be a little juiced up so fxi could be an alternative if you want that chinese put exposure um without worrying about spread risk or you know overpaying on implied volatility or anything like that the pdd looking at puts i think is the obvious bearish setup um you can see a lot of other high you know high growth names uh kind of hitting local resistance and starting to sell off i mean we did have a looking at my main watch list of 220 names you see right here there was a lot of red across the board so just something to keep in mind we could see it down friday down monday pretty much carry over into monday's open so you just have to be careful you can see the dollars up a little bit and we'll get into that because there is something interesting happening in the dollar so we'll go over the five again ups we're looking at calls get that wedge break out it's pretty nice to the upside relative strength compared to the spy um and qqq on friday cvx pulling into the local support looking for calls on that make a base on that support x pulling up into 61.8 percent retracement arc also doing the same thing looking at puts on both of those uh due to the 61.8 percent retracement um rejections pdd or fxi if you want to do that one instead chinese tickers uh breaking out of the up trend line or the rising wedge whatever you want to call it and could see minor resistance down to you know 89 36 uh fxi that 58 man 200 so two calls three puts and i would say i'll have a pretty good thesis behind them technically next we're going into the spy going into the index here so you can see uh spy finally broke that 4 10 49 just shot straight up for a day or two now finding resistance at this jackson hole supply so this supply zone came from when drone pile spoke at jackson hole a bunch of fed members they go out to jackson hole wyoming the maybe they have a ski trip or something but they you know do talk economics and they do broadcast that from jackson hole and on this day paul said the word pain so many times which i think triggered a lot of algorithms uh scared a lot of wall street you know into thinking that the feds get pretty much you know go balls to the wall on tightening so this resulted in a huge sell off i think that's why we could be seeing small resistance here because i finally tested that jackson hole supply your main level of focus this week for spies obviously 4 10 49 the same thing as last week which is this resistance if you wanted to get under that resistance again um that that could be bad and it could have flushed down to demand um we want to see it making a base here for the bulls if you really wanted to be bullish um on that 4 10 49 make new support and then um be able to clear the supply to get up to 431 peak so 4 10 49 will be your main level of focus if we open up below that monday i think you have a really good case for you know day trading puts if he wants to make a base on 4 10 49 at the open and if he wants to reclaim it it gives you a really good you know day trade for calls back up to supply a short term that we are at a little inflection point here last week you did get your trigger over 4 10 49 to give you a nice trade for calls and did stop a lot of bears out even too because 4 10 49 was a huge resistance and you can see the squeeze did happen but i mean instantly we sold off not sure if that's because of the the chinese news or if it was just because of all the bad economic data we did get on friday we had like non-farm payrolls and we had uh some others as well and that made the dollar skyrocket i mean i'm talking over one percent which is just insane because we were still rallying and bouncing up which totally confused a lot of people we even had 10 year yields up and other yields as well just straight skyrocketing with the dollar a lot of people with myself included were so sketched out friday that the market was still rallying on high yield side dollar some people you know didn't even take a trade which rightfully so was a good idea because we did end up selling off you know intraday here despite the high yields in dollar market still bounced really hard eventually did form a multi-top and sold off very hard and this could be contributed to the chinese balloon situation but uh who knows it could just be you know just all supply and demand and you know people taking profits and getting out starting a hedge after a massive rally or it could be news-based and just you know straight panic but otherwise for spy like i said earlier that 41049 is in focus you want to see it staying over that or getting under that me personally i'd like to see it get under 41049 just because we are starting to get a little bit overextended to the upside maybe pulling to demand where we can buy the dip you know about down here at the four of two is four of threes or something like that so just watch that 41049 and uh especially this jackson whole supply which is obviously clear resistance at least on the short term next we're going into qqq and if you tuned in last week we were covering this downtrend line we just said qqq looked really good here more favorable than the es or the spy and the reason was because on the on the qqq and on the nasdaq futures they both had that confirmed downtrend break instead of kind of struggling at the line there was just a clear break and that's pretty much why we concluded that tech was having a way better way better week than you know just regular broad market you know tech was just absolutely exploding to the upside another thing that was helping tech you know pretty much blast off was this 29688 once it got over 29688 you could see the squeeze just started to go crazy so that 29688 was our level of focus last week we said we needed to get over that and as well the 200 EMA to get more upside it was able to do that you did have the downtrend line breakout in your favor you had the mac d in your favor so great week for bowls and hopefully you know somebody saw this and you know was able to make a little bit of money on tech so this week your levels of focus obviously still that 29688 needs to stay over that to hold the structure but then you do have this 31108 so this 31108 was a cpi day cpi reported to come out on this day and had crazy strong resistance this might have been i'm sorry this was from the day before so this is from the day before that cpi print in september leading to this gnarly gap down so we can see why this 31108 had a pretty hard struggle because you do have this large sale imbalance so you have this huge green day leading straight to a very large sale imbalance and you can see why maybe you know people are taking profit of this area because they don't want to get caught in something similar if there is another sale imbalance to the downside so for me um despite you know being an uptrend and breaking out of this line short term i feel a little bit more bearish on qqq i did buy some puts 40 days out it's a starter position i did one contract you know at 800 bucks you know something around that so i do want to see short term resistance on this if you're more of a short term trader you want to see it get under friday's low at 30454 you didn't have to mark it on your chart you'll you'll know when it gets under 30454 that and if you see it flushing with volume you know that's a good good sign to get puts maybe day trade otherwise for swing traders you you know same thing you don't have to stay under 31108 and you do want to see that move down to 29688 for a back test we'll probably do something like this come back back test make a base off that previous resistance right here that's your two levels of focus you have that 31108 and the 29688 that we had last week which is this resistance next we're going into the iwm so this is my more favorable setup for the indexes and this is purely because of this inverse head and shoulders or cup and handle pattern um we did say once i got over 18986 you got a clear shot to 193s 193s came from this supply which is also the jackson whole supply similar to spy so this is a supply from the jackson whole speech you can see why we said once i got over 18986 i had all that free space and you know settling balance to fill back up into your supply and it even broke through that so this exceeded my price target which is really nice for small mid caps i can't really be any more bullish until it gets over 202 and which is the supply so rally base drop supply zone pretty gnarly one too so we need to see it get over that otherwise you can see resistance up here if it does come up and test this you can see it you know rejection straight off naturally the iwm maybe just wait for it to get up to supply if you want to you know day trade puts or take a put swing trade because it could have a little bit more space before it does tap the supply holes if you really want to go longest just wait for it to get over that that 20250 that is your level of focus this week if you do want to catch upside make sure it gets over that 20250 you know i have a stop loss you know under 200 or something or if it does decide to go back into supply that could be your stop loss as well not really the cleanest setup this week because it did break out of the pattern already and you know it gave a nice little rally you know to where now it could lead to a little cooldown or a little bit of consolidation but otherwise for iwm if it did pull back you would obviously maybe see a you know pull back back into the resistance area would probably try to back test about there and hold up as a base so yeah personally i i don't really see a position on this one this week until it gets up into supply or wants to break over that if it gets into supply it shows clear rejection you obviously have the green light for puts it wants to get over 20250 you do have a short term breakout trade even though that would be a little bit overextended and maybe a little risky to chase up there you would get that green light you know to see some more bullish momentum if it got over that next looking at the vix this is the volatility index so last week we had this 18 level that needed to get cleared under if you wanted to see a more of a rally in the market it was able to finally get under that briefly and it did flush down very heavy into 1706 as a low which is not quite my 1634 price target i had if it got under 18 if you remember from the couple videos we've covered that 1634 comes from this little base down here and you can see why if it got under 18 there's a good chance it would just flush this free space down into that low so i mean it got close didn't quite hit it before bouncing up pretty heavily in the market finding volatility again short term now you can see that it is forming this falling wedge so to start to get into a consolidation pattern here which i mean history shows once it gets a little too consolidated eventually it will break even if it's up or down but ideally for a falling wedge obviously it's a bullish pattern so if this turns into a bullish pattern like a falling wedge that would give it you know potential breakout to the upside if you're bearish on stocks you would need to see vix get over 1895 again which is this little pivot and also just get over the 20 area which is more of like a psychological level once the vix gets over 20 people would start getting you know they start questioning things they start selling premiums get a little bit more juiced and volatility does have that chance to come back otherwise for vix you just want to see it you know continuing this consolidation pattern eventually you know it will result in some type of breakout or breakdown you can see that the vix has just been ranging um compared to 2022 to where you know you're getting very solid trends and just you know crazy up and down activity all year so this is actually pretty ideal if you're you know bullish on the market and you you know don't want to see that crazy movement all the time the vix is starting to die down a little bit and this 2022 to 2023 average close did drop pretty gnarly at one point i mean it was up in like the 27s 28s or something like that from when i was tracking it you know months ago now from last week it dropped from 2532 to 2520 and this goes all the way back to the start of 2022 which is when we started raising rates and the federal reserve started their tightening so that's why i think it's essential to track the vix for these years as well as once we get enough data we'll track it for 2023 and see what the average close is for this year as well once we get a little bit more data yeah like i said just want to see it remaining in this wedge um if you're bearish on stocks eventually you're gonna want it to break out of here with a clear you know obvious breakout and not a fake out that's just you know consolidating if you're bearish also on stocks you want to see it getting back over that 20 levels same as usual if you're bullish you do want to see it breaking down this wedge heading you know down to that 1634 as well as get under 18 flat again because it seems like this 18 area i mean it just keeps hanging out every time it gets under it a little bit it'll bounce back up so you do want to see that clear break showing that volatility is cooling down again and like i said that 1634 just comes from this little pivot down here uh from january 2022 when it did peak to its low this is about the lowest the vix has been in a good little minute which is good for bulls but at the same time you know it's doing that consolidation it's not really like capitulating down heavily you can see like the hesitancy you know the traders uh starting to price in that volatility maybe you know just by buying spx options uh buying and selling spx options and influencing that as well as well as institutions you know just buying massive amounts of spx options that's obviously going to influence how the vix is moving uh since it is purely calculated off you know complex math and spx options next we're going into the dollar this is the dx y the dollar currency index so you can see i mean the same thing still in that same base that 101 29 that we covered last week i did say we need to get under that you know to be more bullish it was not able to do that uh and that's this base comes from this right here this is the this is the base for higher load that it may be for just absolutely exploding to the upside so that's why i think it was so important you know if you want to see the dollar go higher it absolutely had to hold that but at the same time it did have that monthly close under the covid 2020 peak and as well i mean this 2017 peak as well uh it hasn't cleared over that yet so that that could be a good sign you know that the dollar will go lower but for now it's holding that base that 101 29 and it doesn't look like it's ready to break it yet um this is a pretty nice bullish you know hammer some type of reversal candle on the weekly that could give this a little hint up to at least this little 50 email 104s or if we go down to the daily it's most likely going to tap one of these moving averages either reject off that 50 or come up to this 200 right here and maybe find resistance about there you can see that there's also a strong resistance at this 105 63 uh had a pretty hard you know peak out right there and did sell off so ideally you know if you do want to see stocks go lower you do want to see that continued volatility in the currency markets see the us dollar come up to 104s 105s and you know stay over that covid 2020 peak if you are bullish on the market this is not ideal that it keeps holding this 101 29 and you can see why i've been saying that um it was not able to stay under that and once it bounced back up we got the econ data to match it uh dollar soaring because it stayed over that 101 29 base so obviously you know people going long dollar right at this area which is also a very strong support so if you are bullish on stocks you do want to see it get under that as well as stay under the covid 2020 peak because i would consider you know anything under it's maybe a little bit less elevated um and people wouldn't have as much to worry about if it's you know getting over and staying you know mid 2020 level or 2022 the 2020 levels i mean that's still considered an elevated dollar in my opinion you do want to see it getting back under that in my opinion the fed really didn't say anything too hawkish but either way they're going to keep the rates up higher for longer like they said their goal is still two percent inflation we're at six something so not even close and there's plenty of other i mean repeated things that they've said that indicate you know that they're not going to cut anytime soon they don't plan on pivoting anytime soon i don't even think they've talked about it in a meeting uh yet so according to the fed swaps the you know the fed futures people are cutting in uh people are pricing in a cut by the end of 2023 at least which i mean i think could be delusional because we don't have the data to prove that yet uh yeah inflation is coming down on a rapid pace but until we get to that two percent goal i really don't see them you know making that decision anytime soon so the question is are bullish delusional could be but at the same time you do have to consider that the market is forward looking and they're trying to price in the future i think we've just started to see maybe some of the the consequences from you know elevated rates like you know earnings contractions we haven't seen any consequences in the labor market yet which hopefully we won't but i mean history does show us that you know the labor market doesn't you know usually come down especially you know from this rapid pace of rate hikes so i guess we'll have to see maybe the soft landing narrative is still intact um maybe Jerome Powell won't even walk back what he said uh at the f1c meeting which was honestly a total failure to tame the market and you know tighten up financial conditions even more if anything financial conditions have loosened so and it didn't really seem like he gave a shit so we'll have to see make sure everybody trades safe i love you guys i'm gonna go ahead and get this edited chopped up and get it out to y'all so tune into the next one love you guys bye