 You got a pretty thin slate at pitcher for tonight and MLB DFS and it's one where there are a couple of good guys But the drop-off after that. I think at least it's pretty big Garrett Cole and Zach Wheeler are the headliners We scar see is not bad, but in a low-strike outmatch up after that things get real dicey real fast So to me the focal point is going to be those top two guys how to handle them and then deciding Is there anybody else? Is there anyone else we can trust on this slate who has a path to outscoring? Cole and Wheeler and if so, how should we use them? Where do we go for stacks and much more? So the focal points for today are Cole and Wheeler and how the impact the rest of the way baby this slate Let's dive on and get you sad for Monday night. Welcome on into the solo shop That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Mondays 10 a game of main slate with lockstep 705 p.m. Eastern for tonight as far as weather goes for today a couple slight chance of rain and nothing too concerning I don't think the first one is in Washington for the Dodgers and the Nationals should be good to go there But keep an eye on that one other one is in Atlanta for the Braves and the Phillies I think the rain should move out before our first pitch We should be good to go there too But check back on both those check out the timeline of the rain the intensity of the rain to make sure they're good To go because I do want to go to both those places whether it be for pitchers or for stacks For tonight so check back in on the weather for Washington and Atlanta before we dive into the pitching preview a quick reminder To make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast He'd because we have got you covered with MLB DFS every week day PGA DFS every week with myself a brand of cadoula USC DFS thoughts and Swain. I've got NASCAR for the Coke 600 coming up later on this week too So a lot of your reasons to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Just search for it wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well The NBA playoffs are heating up and you can make every game feel like game seven on Fan Duel sportsbook an official partner of the NBA Throughout the playoffs all customers can place a no-sweat same game parlay each week You'll get up to twenty dollars in free bats if you don't win Fan Duel has so many ways to play and best of all when you do win you'll get faster than a fast break either way You'll get up to twenty dollars in free bets if your same game parlay during the playoffs does not win Fandals sportsbook an official partner of the NBA must be 21 plus in select states refund issued as non-withdrawable at free bets that expire seven days after a seat max free bet $20 per week Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Fanduel.com slash RG in Arizona call 1 800 text 1 800 next step or text next up to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 7 7 8 or 1 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 for the CCP g.org slash chat in Indiana 1 800 9 with it in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in New York 1 8 7 7 8 Hope and why in Tennessee call the red line at 1 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 In Wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 or in West Virginia 1 800 gambler Net pitching preview for this Monday main slate as mentioned Garry Cole is on this slate And he is the highest salaried pitcher on Fandal checking in at $11,000 Zach Wheeler is 10 3 Luis Garcia facing off the Cleveland is 10 1 we got Miles Nicholas in 96 Adrian house or 94 Tyler Anderson facing the Nationals. He is 9,000. We have Nick Martinez Zach Logue Markle Gonzalez Jordan Lyles and David Peterson as the other is at $8,000 or higher Now Cole is facing the Orioles for the second straight start, which is a bummer because I hate Familiarity within pitchers. I do still think he is the top guy of the night in part due to the fitness of the slate and in part due to I Think bigger concerns around Wheeler's spot for tonight Now Cole is at home which does help and he's pitching really well right now We've seen His sassball cook like it's been a very good pitch for him this year So he's increased the usage on that pitch for where it was in his first two starts So if we narrow things down to his past six starts Cole has a 2.85 skill interactive. You are right His strikeout rate is 30% and his fly ball rate is down to 30% as well the big improvements that we've seen with Cole I think is At least is most tied to that fly ball rate a 30% fly ball for him Is going to curtail some of the major issues had with home runs, especially given the home park in which he pitches Cole is okay against the Orioles last week. He had just five strikeouts He let up two run runs, but he did last seven innings yet a 13.4 percent swinging strike rates The Orioles are about a league average offense I would say against righties a 101 WRC plus 22 percent strikeout rates But they don't walk a whole lot and that can help opposing pitchers go deep into games And Cole can do that by himself to without help he won 114 pitches a couple starts ago So I do direct downgrade this for the repeat matchup But I'm not downgrading it enough for me to push him out of the top spot for today So Cole to me is the top guy of the night now Zach Wheeler is the number two guy I think out of obligation is big tear drop after them and Here's why I think I have to go Cole despite the repeat matchup over Wheeler in a non-repeat matchup that's because Wheeler is on the road tonight and He's had some pretty big home road splits since the start of last year He's also facing a very good Braves team. That's why I can't put Wheeler above Cole But I do think that his ceiling is just as high as Cole's which will keep him in second place here It's been a dip on the road and it's a I don't care too much about ERA because it takes longer to stabilize There's some fluke isn't there But I care about strikeout rates because the batters I can be different guys can just be more comfortable stuff like that and Wheeler strikeout rate has gone down on the road. It's 26% of the road since the start of last year 31% He is may at home. He's made just two starts on the road this year and he lit up tenor and runs across those two starts combined So I actually do think it's a legitimate downgrade I Mentally downgrade guys on the road But I think we need to legitimately downgrade Wheeler when he goes on the road He is pitching well overall right now his velocity is up across his past of five starts He's got 2.74 skill interactive ERA in those five starts 30% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate. So outside of Cole Wheeler is the best pitching the best of any guy on the slate. I would say by a pretty wide margin So I won't put him second because of that, but I do want to keep mind the downsides with the home road splits with the matchup I Think that if you were to deviate off of one of these guys I'd rather deviate off of Wheeler because of those things we discussed. I think that you could go to lease Garcia It's a bad matchup from a strikeout perspective. He doesn't tend to go super deep into games But does a 28% strikeout rate across his most relevant sample So I can see it but I prefer to go with Cole and then Wheeler for tonight the tough part is identifying a value play and part of the reason it's tough is because Alex Cobb I think is the best one and I've been burned by him a couple of times already so far this year Is he already has five point six one? He's facing the Mets tonight. So it's not a great situation but Cobb is seventy two hundred dollars and I think he is far and away The most viable value option for tonight Let's see how this goes the matchup here is tough because the Mets have a 121 WRC plus against righties and they have a low strikeout rate, too But despite the issues Cobb has had he's been getting strikeouts He has a 28% strikeout rate with a 12% swinging strike rate and that's with great bad at ball numbers as well So I don't think his ERA is indicative of how good he has been his expected DRA at baseball savon is one point seven five that is Potentially one of the best marks in the league You know looking at Cobb last week Had some issues earlier course field settled down and then the sixth inning things got away from him led to seven total earned runs there But you know, it's course that stuff definitely happens He did face the Mets in his second start this year So he has seen them before and in that game just for a strikeouts Across I think four and two-thirds innings I think that's the one where he might have gotten hurt But Cobb has six plus strikeouts and three out of six starts He has eight plus strikeouts and two of those and he had double digits in his debut. So he has upside I have Cobb projected at five point nine strikeouts for tonight. So he's not on that level He's probably not getting double digits in this matchup But that is the fourth highest projected strikeout number on this slate for me So I will rank him highest among the value options Despite the issues. I just think there is enough there for us to feel good about Cobb good enough I should say to use him over the other value plays the value plays me tonight pretty underwhelming So at the top I've got Cole then I have Wheeler and then it dips down to Cobb And then the least Garcia the other guy in that mix if you want to deviate from Cole Wheeler or Cobb Stacking to bit easier. I think and we've got some pretty legitimate teams in good matchup So pitching is tough hitting a little bit easier for today There are a couple good options and I think the twins are the top one for tonight The twins are facing Bo brisky and both the results and the peripherals say we can stack against brisky his eRA 5.13 his skill interactive eRA is 5.43 and he gets there Due to a combo of batted ball numbers and plate discipline the strike area for brisky is 13 percent 10 percent walk rate So he's letting up a ball and play about 77 percent of the time and 42 percent of those are hard hit With a 50 percent fly ball rate when you add all that together it leads to an expected eRA Of 5.47 over baseball savant for brisky So things could actually even be a bit hair worse the results have been so far And we've seen specifically a lot of home runs allowed He's let out seven home runs across five starts He's let out multiple home runs and three starts And yeah, you can say he's faced some tough teams in there, but the twins are a pretty good team too They have a 113 wrc plus against righties. They're getting healthier as well Which makes them my favorite stacking option of this mainslake Carlos coran's looked pretty good since he come out came off the il He had three hard hit balls in a couple different games of the weekend Isn't striking out the salary is still pretty reasonable at 34 hundred dollars So I think it's a good time to buy low on a guy. We know is really really good. Korea has not had a good year so far but I think based on some of the bad at ball data recently. I think that will come So car loves korea a guy. I am buying into now To get out in front of that Unlike brisky. Yoana don does have good bad at ball numbers And that's why i'm going to rank the dodgers below the twins in terms of stacking But I still think there are really good stack here and that's due to adan's plate discipline numbers He has an 18 strikeout rate this year where they 14 walk rate and the walk rate being high Well, something we saw in his numbers in the miners as well So that part's probably not going away And he has just a 6.6 swinging strike rate We can expect these numbers to stick for adan and the numbers are why he has struggled so far Now the bad at ball numbers like I said are not bad He's got a 35 hard hit rate with a 34 fly ball rates and both those are better than average It just hasn't mattered his era is 6.38 is expected era is 6.44 And he's been Pretty consistently struggling. We've seen adan let up three plus earned runs and all but two starts He's let up four plus runs and half his start so It's not perfect to stack against him because I'd prefer some better bad at ball data in terms of the opposing batters But I still think that it's working and I still think that I would expect it to keep working Going forward. So I think the Dodgers are a very easy sell here in a team. I will build around for sure Now freddie freeman and will smith are not value plays or is call us kareas So we're kind of stepping out here bill. I want some more values the next one But I think it's worth mentioning that freeman and smith are I think on the verge of an explosion here right now Both these guys have fly ball rates over 38 percent against righties. They're both making a ton of hard contact So neither guy's been bad. They've both been fine But I think they're about to get a lot better So I'm going to start jamming them and now to get ahead of it like freddie freeman's $4,000. He's not low salary, but He could probably be like 42 43 gonna discount there Smith could be around 36 whereas he's 32 or 34 somewhere in there I want to get in on them Similar to kareya Before the numbers start to stabilize a bit from where they've been so far The third stack is going to be the astros. They're facing zack please zack. I believe It's not officially announced on mlb.com yet It could be tristan mackenzie, but I'd stack them against mackenzie too So either way the astros are third just depends on whom they are facing please zack is the preference here Again, I would second mackenzie too, but prefer please zack. He had a nice start his last time out He led up just two earn runs across six innings But that was against the reds Overall, please zack has had a pretty soft schedule so far He has made just two starts this year Against teams inside the top 20 in wrc plus against righties in one of those He led up six earn runs to the angels across three and two thirds innings The astros ranked second in wrc hub plus behind just those angels Even with the easy schedule, please zack has had some rough peripherals He has a 45 heart rate allowed with a 40 fly ball rates and a 4.88 skill interactive. You are ready He also is not striking out a lot of people. So please zack could get back to his 2020 form eventually He's not close to it yet though. So I think especially against such a good team We should feel confident in stacking against him here. So I will be in on the astros for sure Now I talked about korea talked about freeman talked about smith Let's search for some value guys here on the astros let's run through the guys who sometimes pop into fun spots in the order for the astros and Outline how I'd do them in case they wanted to be in there for today. The favorite for me is jasmine kormak He's also the highest salary. It's so shocker, but Good pop even against righties about a 180 iso. I will take that for sure Second is hosay siri because he has some pop but also he can swipe a bag So I like him number two I would go ahead and his Diaz last not a high upside guy against righties and again I do want to reiterate that I am still in on michael brantley Now these seeming to have more upside than he had last year So brantley just bumping that once again. We talked about him a couple times so far My views of him shifting from where they were previously. So I do think that He definitely works Let's move now to things to watch for today. I need to find some more value outside of just the astros those guys so I don't mind getting it via the right-handed mariners. They're facing zack log who Projects to let up a lot of balls and play and a ton of fly balls That's a good recipe for one offs. There aren't enough Really good righties here for me to fully stack the mariners But a ohenio suarez julio rodríguez tai france dill and more All those guys are definitely on the on the menu for me first night I could be okay with some fillies They're facing tucker davidson who has struggled in small samples in the big leagues And the fillies really good against lefties. So they definitely work I have a high enough opinion of davidson where They're outside the top three for me, but the fillies are at least in play on the night Finally, I'm okay with some diamond back stacks based on zack ranky. So it's a revenge game for cranky here And he's getting better He's not as bad as he was to start the year, but he's still letting up a lot of hard contact a lot of fly balls Arizona secretly has a really fun team for stacking. There are a lot of guys here I really like on this team. The one downside is that the roof is closed tonight So not as good of a park factor as usual. I do still like them, but keep that in mind for stacking It's not going to be full full full chase deal for tonight. So keep that in mind But the diamond back to me is still an option for sure Let's finish up here with some dinger calls going to the couple of lefties for today The boring one will be kyle tucker facing off a police ackee and police acke letting up a lot of fly balls and hard contact Not many strikeouts kyle tucker absurd absurd hitter love him a lot So i'll go with him first the fun one max kepler facing off With brisky kepler, I think it's kind of flown under the radar just because he's not korea He's not buxton and that's been a good thing. I think in terms of expectations So I would say kepler is a guy a bit underappreciated I got five bingers so far this year He's been hitting the ball pretty well recently. So home run calls for today are kyle tucker and max kepler That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop But once again a quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get Your podcast and again while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well If you've got questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you on this slate Enjoy using guys like erik kohlen zack wheeler. Hopefully it works out. We'll talk to you once again on tuesday This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network