 Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to today's webinar Express what next for the food and drinks sector organized by the CIM Food, Drink and Agriculture group with our guest speaker Andrew Walker. If you're a university student attending today's webinar, you may want to sign up to the CIM Marketing Club. It'll keep you up to date with the latest trends, innovations and concepts in the marketing industry. All you need to do is hover your mobile phone camera lens over the QR code you see on screen at the moment and it will take you to the Marketing Club sign-up page. So I'd now like to hand you over to Andrew Walker, Client Knowledge Director at Kantar World Panel, who is our guest speaker today. Over to you, Andrew. Hi everyone, thanks for joining. I guess the the macro title for this is what next for the food and drink industry, but I think really the question I wanted to tackle is this idea of continuation or correction and this idea of where we are today. So we saw enormous shifts in the world through 2020. We're seeing some form of correction today, but are we today as we come to the end of 2021 in the in this much-fated new normal with established new behaviours or are we still on that road to correction and is there are we on a destination somewhere entirely different? So we're going to tackle that over the next 30 minutes or so from a few different angles thinking about food and drink consumption, food and purchasing and some of the macro impacts or some of the macro influences on the industry. Before I get started, I just wanted to introduce the data sets we're using because you might look at some of the data I'm going to present and wonder where it's coming from. And we're using two data sets really today, which are our purchasing panels that we run at Kantar where we ask people to record all of the grocery products that they purchase, either things that they take back into the home or they purchase on the go. And we're recording about three and a half million purchase moments per annum via those panels. And alongside that a sub sample of those people are also recording for specific weeks during the year, their consumption behaviour as well. So once they've purchased the product and taken it back into the home, how do they end up consuming it? Who do they consume it with? Why do they consume it and so on. So those are the two data sources I'm going to be calling on primarily as I'll take you through this presentation. And we're going to tackle the question of continuation or correction from three angles. And three questions really I want to pose and try to answer. So the first is, is what we've seen a behavioural blip in the sense all of the behavioural change? Are we just going back to where we were in 2019 or is it sticking? Or have we got a future that's been reshaped by the changes we've seen over the last 18 months? Secondly, from a brand and marketing point of view, are there new rules for strategy as a result of the changes that we've seen? Or is it just a different playing field? So did the certain old rules apply? But we've just got to react to different needs that consumers have. And finally, through all of those changes, have we got this new normal? Or actually is there more disruption around the corner? And probably the fact I'm posing that question might suggest what the answer might be. So without further ado, we'll move on to behavioural blip or reshape future. And the point I want to make with regard to looking at the food and going industry with regard to behaviour is our consumption and purchasing of food and drink doesn't happen in isolation. It fits around the rest of our lives. And for that reason, I'm not going to start with a piece of cancer data. I'm going to start with a piece of Google data that talks about where we're living our lives. So this is data that Google publish in terms of what they call a mobility study that measures basically the location of people's mobile phones over time. And they're looking at the change in location versus a pre-pandemic normal period. And the line I really want you to focus on is the blue one at the top, which is the growth in the time that we're spending at home. Now, obviously in a percentage terms that peak during the various lockdowns, and you see that in April 2020 at the beginning of the chart, and again at the beginning of 2021. But the really important number for us today is that 6% on the right hand side. So that's telling us that we're still spending 6% more time at home than we were prior to the pandemic. And the primary driver of that are the two things underneath, the fact that we're spending less time traveling, and we're spending less time in the workplace. So that adjustment in where we live in our lives goes on to have a huge impact on how we shop, where we shop, and what we shop for. And that's why I want to explore next. So spending on food and drink is a really complex thing because we can buy in all sorts of ways and we can consume in all sorts of ways. For the purpose of this, I'm going to try to simplify that down to five ways in which we buy. The first is large grocery shops. So we go and go to a store or shop online for more than 20 items in a grocery store. Then we've got small grocery trips, which are those trips which are less than 20 items. Then we go out of the home and look at retail on the go. And what I mean by that is people purchase the food and drink made in a retail setting, but consumed out and about. So that might be buying a meal dinner or consuming it while you're traveling or consuming in the office or however you might be consuming those kind of meal occasions. Then we get into food service and look at on-premise consumption and visits to cafes and restaurants. And then finally, it's takeaways and deliveries. So still in the food service world, but getting takeaways and deliveries from those outlets. And to set the scene, I just want to look at the pre-pandemic distribution of consumer spend and to be clear, this is food and drink excluding alcohol that we're looking at here. So pre-pandemic, 60% of that spend is going in the take home world, either small or large grocery trips, which are pretty similar in size. 25% on-premise consumption and then smaller contributions from retail on the go and from deliveries and takeaways. But our key interest today is how is that evolving? So what we're going to look at here is first of those five things, the percentage change and spend on those five ways of buying food and drink in the first year of the pandemic. So essentially the year to February of this year. And what you see here is that perhaps not surprisingly, the two areas of growth are the two areas that allowed us to spend less time out and about. So large grocery trips on the left-hand side and takeaways on the right-hand side, both growing significantly. In absolute terms, that growth in large grocery shops is bigger because it's from a larger base takeaways as you saw in the previous chart was much smaller. Then our question is, how far are these behaviors sticking? So I'm going to roll these percentage changes forward for the six months since the release of restrictions, so the six months to August this year and then the month of August and then the month of September. And what you see in each case is that the change is getting smaller, be that positive or negative. So the growth for large grocery shops is a little bit slower than it was. The growth for takeaways is a little bit slower than it was and the decline for the declining elements is slower than it was as well. So there is a correction underway, but it's not a dramatic one. And even this long after restrictions were released in the UK, we're still seeing radically different behaviors. So we're still spending 20% more on large grocery trips. We're still spending more than double the amount on takeaways. It's a fundamental change in the way we're choosing to buy food and drink. So just to explore that a bit further, I'm going to go back to this slide and just simplify the five views. So we're going to go back to a sort of headline view of the market that takes the left-hand side of that line as the take-home world and the right-hand side as the out-of-home world. And just look at how those two things interact because clearly we have a finite amount of food and drink we're going to consume. So those things into play as one declines, the other one grows typically. And if we look at the history of that in terms of our spend on out-of-home, which is the darker colour here and take-home, which is the yellow here. So we see that spend on take-home is still inflated right up to October 21. So we're looking at growth versus the equivalent period in 2019. So we're still spending more money on take-home occasions. And that is despite the fact that the decline in spend on out-of-home has disappeared. So we're now spending about the same on out-of-home occasions that we were back in 2021 in the last few weeks. So the question then becomes kind of what's going on there? How does that make sense? Why are we still spending more on take-home but no longer reducing our spend out-of-home? And this is all about occasions because at the moment we're still seeing an input increase in the amount of in-home occasions that we're having. So estimating the number of consumption occasions, be that a meal occasion or a snack that are taking place in the home is about 11% higher than it was in 2019. So we're still consuming more at home than we were, despite the fact that out-of-home spend has recovered. And the reason for that is that out-of-home spend has not recovered in volume sense. So the amount of occasions, the amount of frequency, the amount of trips we're making, the amount of transactions we're making is still 10% down on where it was. But the value of those occasions is going up. And this is a point we'll return to later, but the change in the out-of-home universe is that we're becoming a bit more discerning about why we're going out. But when we are going out, we're willing to spend a bit more money. Whereas in the take-home world, we see a very similar pattern that we're shopping less often and we're spending more when we do go, but for an entirely different reason, which is during the pandemic, we found a way to make our shopping more efficient, concentrate more of our purchasing into fewer trips. And that seems to be a behavior that we like and a behavior that we're sticking with. And you can see that really starkly in this chart, which looks at the number of occasions or number of purchases or number of purchases or number of baskets, however you want to frame it, happening at different sizes. So the darker color at the top is those smaller trips with less than 20 items. And then those two lines at the bottom are trips featuring between 20 and 40 items and trips featuring more than 40 items. And in most of that chart, you don't see a much change, except for that massive blip in the middle where we've got a decline in those smaller trips. And even today, we're still seeing 50 million fewer small trips than we were on a monthly basis than we were prior to the pandemic, which is a real challenge for convenience stores, because that is the bread and butter. Those are the types of trips that they rely on. And more of that spending is being concentrated down the bottom there in those fewer but bigger trips. And that is a massive implication for where we shop and the choices we make and where we spend our money. So if we look at the evolution in the channels and where we're spending our money today, again, looking back versus 2019, this is a time series, but essentially it looks the same almost all the way across after the pandemic, which is there's one really significant shift, which is the decline in spending supermarkets in the grey and huge growth in the spend online, which is in the green. And this all relates to our change in behavior. So we're spending more time at home, we're out and about less, we're making less trips, which is a perfect storm for e-commerce because e-commerce in the UK is perfectly set up to deliver against that need of, I want a large delivery of all of the items I need for the next week, the next two weeks. So all of these things pay together, more time at home, different way of shopping, different channels in which we shop. If we move over to the other side of that chart and look at the out of home world for a minute, and specifically starting with retail on the go, so this is this purchase from a retail setting that I consume on the go, these are massively influenced by our working habits. And the sort of narrative around working at home probably depends on the industry that you're working in, because if you're taking a very London centering view of it in many industries, the majority of people are still working at home, but I appreciate in lots of industries, people haven't been able to do that at any point in the pandemic and they're certainly not doing it now. The ONS estimates that about 60% of the UK population have office-based jobs and about 40% have non-office-based jobs. But even at the height of the pandemic, they're saying that only about 40% of those people who are office-based will work from home and hardly anyone, so less than one in 10 of the non-office-based jobs were able to work from home. So there's a real mix in the impact of working at home for different parts of society and people in different roles and people working in different industries. We need to be careful not to generalise on this point. And the reason I'm making this point is it makes a difference to these retail on-the-go trips. So it's a slightly old way of classifying people in the UK, but to use a social class measure and look at social class ABC1, which is often used to describe more affluent people or people in higher earning roles, but it also tends to be biased towards people in office-based roles. We see the decline in their spend in terms of retail on-the-go is consistently twice as high as the people in the C2DE groups. So all the way across whether we look at the first year of lockdowns, we look at the reset that's gone on over the last six months, or we look at the last few weeks. We're still seeing the same fact that the change in behaviour is much bigger in those social class ABC1s than it is among C2DEs. Again, behaviour driven by the way people are living their lives. And that matters because if you're operating in this space, that doesn't just mean that different people are working, walking through your door. It means that demand for products changes as well. So for example, again, if we look in this retail on the go type trip and look at the categories that over index with that C2DE group relative to the rest of the population, we see that those sort of classic snacking categories like soft drinks, confectionary and crisps and snacks, over trade with those people, while things like hot drinks, sandwiches, cakes and pastries under trade with those people. So the change in the mix of who's in the store and the change in the mix of how people are living their lives also changes the mix of what gets sold and the demand for different categories. And the final point on this retail section is with regard to on-premise and food service and how we're seeing that change. So we talked earlier on about the massive growth in takeaways and that probably comes as no surprise to anyone, but I wanted to express an important nuance under the surface of that. And that is the takeaways of growing enormously in terms of the number of occasions, the number of times someone's buying a takeaway, but the value of those occasions is dropping. And that's because takeaways are becoming less about a special occasion at the weekends, maybe a Friday or Saturday night, and becoming dispersed right across the week and increasingly playing a world role at lunchtime as well. So they're becoming more present in people's lives, but on average the average transaction is less valuable. And then in contrast, when we look at on-premise occasions, we've seen this huge drop in the frequency with which people are going out and about, so we're still about 50% down in terms of the number of those occasions, but the value of those occasions is picked up dramatically. So in contrast to takeaways, when we're choosing to go out, which is much less often, we're willing to spend, and we're willing to spend on that experience. So we're sort of stuck to what the retail reset looks like. I would say these five things. So in large grocery shops, we're seeing e-commerce playing a bigger and bigger role, and that's disrupting the role of the large supermarket and posing a challenge to large format stores. The small grocery trips is a big challenge for convenience stores to drive footfall because the number of those trips that people are making have dropped. For retail on the go, we've got slight change in the shopper mix, which also drives a slight change in the product mix in terms of what's been sold. And for visits to cafes and restaurants, we're being more selective in our occasions, but willing to spend a bit more, and the opposite for takeaways there, they're permeating every part of our lives, but on average, the value is getting a bit lower. So that sets the scene for the context in terms of the way we're buying and consuming. I think a big question underneath this, though, is from a brand manufacturer retail perspective, does that change the way we should be thinking about growth? So at Cannesville, we have some very clear views on how we believe category growth is driven and how we believe brand growth is driven. From a category growth point of view, we think it's about fulfilling more needs or getting presence in more consumption moments, expanding people's repertoire, or finding ways to premiumize. And from a brand point of view, again, we think it's about more needs and moments, but also potentially about stretching into more categories or gaining more presence in the sense of being more present in people's lives or more present in retail. And what we're going to do in the next couple of slides is just explore whether we can explain the fastest-growing categories and brands over the last 18 months through those lenses or actually have the rules changed. So here's our list of the 10 fastest-growing categories on the left-hand side in take-home groceries from 2009 to 2019, and then what that looks like on the period from 2019 through to 2021. And when we've had this list on the left-hand side, obviously we've had it for some time, there's some nice narratives around health becoming more important and naturalness and things like that. When you look at the right-hand side, it's very difficult to create a narrative from that list. Indeed, you might look at some of those things and think, I don't even know what they are or what you're talking about when you use those titles. So there isn't a real narrative in the nature of the categories, but where there is a narrative is in what's driven their success. So if we go back to our four drivers of category growth, for example, in more needs in the top left-hand corner, we can take the example of yogurt drinks and juices and specifically the actamel brand, which hasn't so much reached out to a new need, but it's taken advantage of the greater prominence of the need that it's been talking about for a long time, which is immune support, which for obvious reasons has become more important to consumers in the last 12 months. And that means that that brand is featuring, all that category is featuring in six million more occasions, baskets in the last 12 weeks than it was in the equivalent period in 2019. In terms of more moments, I'm going to talk about flavoured alcoholic beverages. So that is a category that five, 10 years ago we would have referred to as alcapops and the sort of traditional products that sit in there. Actually now it's driven by these pre-mixed spirits and mix of products typically found in cans, which had exploded in the last few years and responded to a change in the way that people are consuming alcohol, particularly in home or maybe out and about in parks and things. As an example, if you look on the Tesco website today, you can find 47 different SKUs that are fulfilling that need of pre-mixed spirits and mixers and that category has increased its presence in baskets by three million in the last 12 weeks versus where we were two years ago. In terms of larger repertoire, and here we're not necessarily talking about broadening repertoires, but we're talking about a product becoming more prominent in people's repertoires. And here we're talking about canned colours. And what's changed here is they've changed the norm in the way that people are purchasing. So instead of it being about four packs or eight packs, the prominence of these large packs, like the example you see on the screen here of 24 packs, has greatly increased. And what that does is massively expand consumption because of the products in your home, the chances of you consuming in greater quantities increase, and therefore you spend them, the category grows with it. And finally, premiumisation and chilled flavoured milks. When I put the title, chilled flavoured milk on the screen, you might have thought of sort of milkshake type products. Actually, what's happened here is the growth driven by iced coffee type products. So you see the Starbucks branded product on the left and Arctic coffee on the right. And that's helped increase the average price in that category by 13%, again, versus the less 12 weeks versus the equivalent period in 2019. So in all of these cases, they're still responding to the same drive as we've always talked about. They're just doing it in a way that responds to a shift in needs. And as I'll say, a shift in the playing field that we've seen over the last 18 months, either immunity becoming more important to us, in home consumption becoming more important to us, or indeed alcohol consumption moving out of the on trade and into the off trade. And we can do the same with brands. So here's the top 10 performing brands over the same period. There's a bit more of a theme here in the sense that you see soft drink brands being quite prominent in that list, and also snacking brands, but there are also some other outliers. Our question again here is, can we explain those through the drivers that I referred to earlier? And I think again, the answer is yes. So as an example, if we look at more needs, we've got Monster, the energy drink, which has grown by 8 million pounds over that 12 week period versus two years ago, and not specifically by pushing the same skews, but that growth is primarily through their juiced product, which includes added juice, and there's zero sugar product as well. So slightly stretching the need of the product to reach a broader range of shoppers and a broader range of consumer needs. In terms of more moments, we had Seabrooks on the chart. So Seabrooks has grown right across its range and it's sort of core multipacks as well, but an interesting move they've taken is the step into sharing formats with their loaded fries MPB. That's contributed two million pounds of grape, and that's about getting into a different moment, so seeing clearly the consumption of that type of product is a very different occasion to a regular multipack, which might be carried out of home or distributed amongst children for lunchboxes and that kind of thing. And then in terms of more categories, we've got Flash. So Flash, classically, the cleaning product is stretched into cleaning systems. So these kind of mock products, very incremental because it's a different category. It's a different use case, again, adding eight million to the brand. And finally, in terms of more presidents, we've got Lenore, which has taken that move of really growing its presence in what we call the bargain stores. So stores like B&M, Poundland and Home Bargains, and just through those channels added five million to its top line. So a few quick examples there, but I think some really important points about the fact that those lenses and those drivers remain relevant today as they always have done. It's just the sense that the context has changed around them. So I'd still urge you that as you look at your strategies for growing brands and products going forward, that you use these as a checklist. Am I doing one of those things to help drive the categories that I'm operating in? And is my brand strategy delivering at least one of those things in order to deliver growth? You need to be conscious of the movement in people's lives that we've already talked about, but these drivers remain as relevant as ever. And our final section, so we've talked about loads of change, but I think there's more change to come. So I just wanted to finish with three big changes or disruptors that are coming for the industry, but I think we need to be conscious of as we look forward. And the first one is one that's dominating the news headlines at the moment, which is sustainability and how consumers are thinking about that. I'm then going to talk about what I've called the space race, but what I mean by that is the disruption which we will see to the distribution of space in grocery stores as a result of the higher the HFSS legislation coming in in October of next year. And then finally, I'm going to finish by talking about the really important issue affecting all sorts of elements of the industry, which is price rises and inflation. So on sustainability, over the last three years, we've gone out to our sample that I talked about at the beginning, and asked them about their views on sustainable issues. And we use that for many things, but one of the things is to create this segmentation of three groups. So eco-actives would be people who profess to care about sustainable issues and be willing to do something about them. Eco-considerers are people who say they're interested in sustainable issues, but they're not really changing their behaviour. And eco-dismissers are people who are saying, I'm not really that engaged and I'm just going to carry on, as I always have done. What's really interesting to us here is the massive growth in that eco-actives group between 2019 and 2021, despite everything else that's been going on in people's lives. And we run a lot of these regular, sort of big, attitudinal studies, and this level of change in just two years is really unusual and indicative of real sea-changing consumer sentiment in the space of sustainability that we think is only going to gain momentum going forwards. And this matters to brands, because as we look at the performance of the brands that over-index most or over-form most with that eco-actives group, they're out-growing total FMCG by factor of more than two. So there's an example of 10 of those brands in the image on the right-hand side to give you a sense of what's in there. A lot of them you more look at and think, yeah, obviously they do well with eco-actives because they're almost born sustainable. Sustainability is right at the core of what they're trying to achieve and their positioning to people. But we can also see more mainstream brands moving in this direction and benefiting from increasing their appeal to eco-actives. And that's not just about winning with eco-actives themselves, but if you can connect to the things that are important to them, increasingly we're seeing more consumers move in that direction and it becoming more important to a broader range of consumers as we move forwards. The second of our disruptors is HFSS. I'm not going to touch on this in huge detail, but the key legislation coming in towards the end of next year obviously that affects the way in which we can market and who we can market to. But I think from our perspective we're more interested in the impact it has on in store and specifically the ban on secondary space or gondola end promotions for products coming under the or coming up being legislated or being affected by the legislation. So as we look across the grocery market we see that 40% of spend is on products that based on the nutrient profiling scores would be classified as high fat salt or sugar. But not all of those sit in the categories that will be affected. But we still think about 15% of the market is affected by the legislation. And those are categories that currently today have disproportionate ownership of that secondary space that exists in stores. So the opportunity that is created for all sorts of categories to see if they can justify ownership of a slice of that space that's going to come up for grabs is enormous and very unusual. So when this legislation comes in at the end of next year everyone should be looking at what opportunities that creates for them for their own categories and brands. And the final point is with regard to inflation. So again another thing that's very topical is in the news a great deal and it's top of mind of everyone in the industry. From our perspective what we're interested in is the consumer response. And we know a bit about it. Because we can look back at what happened in during the last period of heavy inflation which was the period from 2007 to 2015. And if we look cumulatively over that period we can see that the average household spent 22% more on their groceries in 2015 versus 2022. But over the same period cumulatively inflation was at 36%. So that means that consumers were finding a way to mitigate that inflation so they didn't have to absorb that full 36%. And in our analysis we allow them four ways to have done that. They can buy less stuff so buy less volume. They can shop in cheaper stores. They can buy more on promotion or they can choose cheaper products. And what we saw then and what we'll expect to see replicated over the next couple of years is people looking for micro savings so little savings that they can make of categories in categories of fixture. At that time through buying more on promotion and through choosing cheaper products and by choosing cheaper products we mean perhaps buying a mainstream brand instead of a premium brand or a private label product instead of the brand. And that last point is that we think it's going to be even more magnified this time around because the level of promotional activity in the UK grocery market is at a record low. Retailers at the moment aren't showing appetite to use more promotions to mitigate these rises. So instead we think consumers will be looking even more so from where can they make little changes in little savings. But the final point on this one is that we shouldn't generalize in terms of people's experience and people's reaction because we know that there's a huge range and perhaps even now even more so than ever a huge range of financial experience and that people are having across the country. So back in 2020 another of our surveys we went out to our sample and rather than classify them in terms of their jobs or their social class or where they live or their income we just asked them to say what do you think of your financial situation and we asked them to self-classify on one of these five bands. So either I don't have to restrict my spending in any way down so I don't have enough money to cover expenses and this is the distribution that we saw in 2020. We repeated this study earlier this year and what we saw is yes there's still a large group of people up there on the left-hand side but the growing group is down there on the right-hand side and as that inflation reality starts to bite we think that group will grow more. So the challenge for really brand business looking to win in the next couple of years is how to get a balanced strategy that can both take advantage of the opportunities that exist on the left-hand side of the chart with those who are willing and able to spend a bit more and then perhaps splash out a bit and make sure that if those people on the right-hand side are looking to trade down and make savings that you're giving them something that they can trade down to. So in summary for our three sections is it behavioral blip or a reshape future? I think it's a reshape future. The changes look permanent. Think about people looking for efficiency in the way they buy groceries and looking for experience when they venture out of home less often but willing to spend a bit more. Are there any new rules for growth or is it just a different playing field? I think it's very much a different playing field but the rules are the same. Those drivers I talked about we talked about before the pandemic and we'll continue to talk about because they're just as relevant as ever and is it a new normal or is there more disruption around the corner? There's absolutely more disruption around the corner from all sorts of angles. I think the most important ones for the industry are sustainability which will steadily build this importance and inflation which will bite much more quickly and the important consideration there is do you understand where on the spectrum your shoppers are and do you have something that can deliver against those diverse sets of financial needs? And that was it from me so thank you very much. Brilliant that's great thank you very much Andrew for a really insightful presentation. So we're now going to have a short Q&A session. What influence have the new rapid delivery services so just get here Gorillaz had on the consumer purchase patterns and behaviour? Have you got any insight into that? We're talking about it a lot at the moment we think the impact is quite small and focused in specific urban areas where they have a significant presence but we think in the future they'll have a big impact on the grocery market. So if you look at the e-commerce grocery e-commerce in the UK today it it delivers it takes more than a quarter of sales when people are buying making big trips but only about one percent of sales when people are making small trips so there's enormous white space for e-commerce there's huge investment behind those kind of businesses a couple of examples you mentioned there so we think it's got a big future at the moment we don't think it's having a huge impact on the market but we'll do it in maybe three five years time. Then another question which is one I was in my mind I haven't used it myself but someone's asking about the at-home category sort of the meal-in-a-box restaurant type things have you seen any changes in that? I think we at this question came up last year when you did a similar presentation has there been any changes in that market that you've been able to detect? So it's very much a new well it depends how you define it but it's very much a new market I would I would put it in the same bucket as takeaways really so if you think about what it's competing with people not basically not wanting to go to the full effort of cooking or maybe wanting to have a special occasion but not wanting to go out to a restaurant so it's operating in the same world takeaway and that is a that is a world where there's a huge growth in demand for various reasons there's still some reticence for some people to be out and about in restaurants but people still want the experience and people have changed their behavior a bit as we've talked about as another example of people living their lives a bit differently over the last 18 months and then becoming quite happy and actually quite enjoying those kind of experiences so I think it's definitely a growing thing and something that we think will be around probably not at the levels that it was in 2020 but something that we think will will remain in the market Okay next question do you see lifestyle choice value-added such as vegan approved certification or similar independent recognition as an important driver for brand or product choice? It's a difficult one that to really pull apart the importance of individual claims on the choices that people are making I think what we do see and it relates to the sustainability point very closely is we're seeing a growing awareness of sustainability issues we're seeing people become more prone to think about meat reduction to think about naturalness I guess in the types of things they're buying and consuming so all of those things are becoming more important I can't talk specifically for claims with regards to veganism I think what we definitely say from our research is that vegan and plant-based consumption is primarily driven by people who are meat reducers rather than entirely vegan or vegetarian so that may indicate the specific claims about veganism are that important so that people are choosing to buy those products This is possibly a follow-on from the question we just said about the meal in a box Someone's wanting to know is there any data on buying ingredients over ready meals? So people cooking from scratch and will that continue? We've got a lot of TV programs like MasterChef that might inspire people I guess but are you able to identify that sort of trend? Through our consumption panel we can see very clearly what's going on there I think what we saw is a move to scratch cooking during lockdowns as people have more time on their hands and probably looking for something to do and trying to create more interesting meals for themselves That disappeared quite quickly all the stuff you saw in the press about banana breads and home baking and all of that kind of stuff that was quite a short-lived thing because it just wasn't something that people on-going wanted to dedicate their time to I think where we see the growth is not so much in pure scratch cooking but what we call more assembly type cooking so somewhere between ready meals and scratch cooking where people buy elements like sources or half-made ingredients or perhaps flavoured meats and those kind of things and bring them together as opposed to pure scratch cooking which hasn't grown enormously And question on sustainability and we're just going out of COP26 and the last webinar that I hosted was from Mackie's Ice Cream in Scotland and they were talking about their brand and the sustainability focus that they have The question now is do you think consumers will hold grudges towards brands that are not born sustainable and will the born sustainable brands have a significant leader advantage? I think they do and that's why we saw them in in the top 10 of those over in the series but in the main those brands are also relatively premium and also relatively small in their categories in no case are they the leading brands in their categories so I don't think we're about to see a world where suddenly all of those products become the leaders because value and price is going to remain an important drive for people and legacy of the big mainstream brands is going to continue but I think it's incumbent on those big mainstream brands to occupy some of that space and demonstrate their own credentials in the ways in which they're sustainable whether that's about recyclable packaging or the impact they're having on the environment that they source their raw materials from Okay and then a question someone's asking in terms of consumer behaviour are there any characteristics of bias from a psychographic point of view that you can derive from the data that you're analysing? What we have and I've showed a couple of examples of it there is lots of information on behaviour because that's what we're tracking as a core and we overlay on that lots of different surveys that we run through the year and we saw examples from in terms of financial status in terms of sustainability and those kind of things and we do all sorts of segmentation work bringing together those things so how I'm consuming how I'm eating what my attitudes are it's difficult to generalise and say what segments we would create because we tend to do that kind of work from a category point of view because people might sit in quite different segments if you're talking about for example their alcohol consumption versus how they wash their clothes and how they spend the money on cleaning products for instance so I think it's difficult to generalise because people interact with categories in different ways and we tend to do that kind of work at that level Next question is the rise and takeaway fuelled by the on-the-go retailers pivoting so they're doing something different and hence the spend per trip reducing are there restaurants because we've seen a rise in people doing deliveries from restaurants and stuff has there been a continued shift in how those people perhaps cafes are doing or Yeah that's why we're seeing that change so it's a more diverse set of businesses in that world so you might have if you went back far enough you'd think that was dominated by sort of fish and ship restaurants take what Indian takeaways Chinese takeaways for instance but actually now you've got a whole wealth of businesses who are trying to get involved in that in that growth area so yes I think the reason that's come down is because it's not necessarily about people buying big family takeaways for a Saturday night and actually people getting lunch delivered from their local cafe which obviously brings down that transaction size but massively grows the frequency as I as I showed Okay is there any data or trend on buying locally sourced or labelled food and drink? Do you have any data on shoppers who consider the source of their food in line with their eco considerations? So yeah there's definitely a correlation between those bigger those broader sustainability segmentation I talked about because underneath all of that we're asking people about all sorts of different concerns and issues and one of the things we ask people about is how strongly do they about look for locally produced locally produced products There's an interesting sort of regional variation in that I think so regions with their own with a very strong identity of their own in the UK that bias tends to be stronger so that bias to look for local and produce is stronger say for example in Wales and Scotland would be my examples if you look in those parts of the country you see a stronger sense of them towards I want to buy local produce than you might do in London for example Okay and next question can you explain further what you mean by more moments for brand growth? I'm sorry okay I'll probably went over that a bit quick so more moments are just made finding different consumption occasions so if you've got a product that to take the Seabrooks example a product that is a crisp product but it comes in multi-packs will typically be consumed that consumption moments which are lunchbox type occasions or just individual consumption occasions by going into a sharing format you open up the potential that people will consume at a different type of moment which is maybe three or four people sitting around watching a film or gathering for a social event of some sort Okay and I think we've got time for one final question which of your four brand growth strategies do you think brings the best chances of success? I think the one which correlates most with success is present to say distribution because physical availability drives penetration which drives brand growth but you can't get more presence in retailers without having a product that justifies it and you've been able to justify it to retailers so I think the ones that you should focus on first and foremost are more need so are we finding a reason an extra reason for people to purchase this product which creates more consumption occasions which drives penetration or more moments we just talked about so am I giving people a different occasion at which they might consume my product and those two things can kind of be connected but it's about am I creating more consumption moments in my product which creates more demand which gets more buyers in and grows the business Excellent and that's all we have time for today that's lovely thanks Andrew there were some really good questions there from our viewers sadly that's all we have time for in our webinar today our next webinar express will be top marketing and data and analytics trends to drive future growth on Wednesday the 24th of November at 1pm and it will be organized by CIM Southwest you'll find further details listed on the events page on the CIM website where you'll also be able to register for the session so on behalf of CIM thank you once again Andrew for a really good presentation and thank you to all that joined us we hope you enjoy the rest of your day and we look forward to welcome you again to our webinars in the near future goodbye