 If you are someone who wants to stack exclusively good offenses in MLB DFS, Monday is probably going to be a pretty rough day for you because a lot of the best offenses on this slate are either in bad spots for hitting or in tough matchups. Whereas all the good situations, the good matchups and revolver on teams that are not that great. So it's a difficult slate in terms of wrapping your head around, can I actually feel good enough about this team to stack them, or do I take a better team in a less desirable spot? I think actually for this slate, I want to skew towards the bad teams. We'll talk about why as we get into this slate. Welcome on into the solo shop. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to preview Monday's seven game main slate with lockset for 7.10 p.m. Eastern. There's one game at 7.10, then the next one doesn't start till 8.10. Then the other ones are all West Coast. So pretty staggered slate at the beginning part. Lots of chances for late swap and stuff like that. But some of the games out East are ones we will want to stack. Speaking of those games, in Detroit for the A's and the Tigers, wins are in from center at 14 miles per hour. Again, centerfield wall, they're pretty big. So that may block some of the wins, but I would still bump down bats a tiny bit there. In Chicago for the White Sox and Guardians, wins are in from right at 18 miles per hour. Slight push down to bats there as well. And finally in San Francisco for the Rockies and Giants. Temperature just 50 degrees. Bumped down hitters there as well. We'll break down the top pitchers of the day and the top stacks in just one second. My first quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast to get not just this baseball podcast, but also we've got UFC, PGA, NASCAR. 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Pitching preview for this Monday main slate, Carlos Rodan is the highest sorry pitcher on Fandall. He checks in at $11,100. Mackenzie Gore is $10,000. Michael Kopeck, $92. Noah Cindergaard is $9,000. Then we have Austin Gomber, Paul Blackburn, Chris Flexen and Zach Plisac as the other guys at $8,000 or higher. Now, Rodan is the top guy tonight. He is in a low strikeout matchup with the Rockies. I think despite that though, his gap between him and the rest of the field in terms of like talent and strikeout ability is good enough where we take him number one despite that low strikeout matchup. And most of that is just because Rodan is filthy. He has a 37% strikeout right across five starts. Nobody else in the slate has a mark higher than 28% in their most relevant sample. And none of the full starters on this slate is higher than 26%. So the edge between Rodan and the field is 10 percentage points. That's a massive, massive number. It also helps make up for the low strikeout match. The Rockies are our low strikeout team right now. Their active roster has just a 19% strikeout rate against the lefties since the start of last year. They try to put the ball in play. They have just an 8% walk road, which means that they're swinging a lot. And that should help keep Rodan's pitch count low and help him go pretty deep in the game even if it does lead to fewer strikeouts. Now, my numbers obviously account for matchup and account for that. And I do still have Rodan projected for 7.9 strikeouts today. Nobody else in the slate is higher than 6.5. So you put that in the coolest, most pitcher-friendly park on the slate and it makes Rodan the top guy for me. And I would love to nitpick him because he's 11-1, he'll be very popular, but I find no reason to do so here. He is elite, it's a quality environment. So to me, I say you suck it up and put Rodan number one. And Vume is being in a tier of his own and treat him as such when it comes to your allocation for today. Now, Mackenzie Gore in terms of salary is number two. He is also number two for me. It's a very chalky for today. Gore is also at home like Rodan and it's cool for Gore as well, 63 degrees at first pitch in San Diego, but it's a much better matchup for Gore in terms of strikeouts than we have with Rodan. Gore is facing the Cubs and they can hit lefties a bit. They've got a 109 WRC plus against lefties, but it comes with a 25% strikeout rate, which is the second highest mark on the slate. They also have the second lowest fly ball ring. That's a good thing for Gore because the one flaw he has had this year in this very small sample is letting up too much hard contact. His hard hit rate allowed is 46%. That's kind of the one key issue with Gore. Everything else is pretty good. Couple, two few many walks, but a 26% strikeout rates, a 3.69 skill interactive ER rate despite that high walk rate. And also he has a big pitch count. He's fully stretched out. He's gone a hundred plus pitches and each of his past two starts. That's allowed him to get 10 strikeouts in one of those games. Now it is worth noting with Gore. He's had four starts, two of those have been high strikeout matchups and both of those high strikeout games came against the Reds. We know the issues they have had this year. So the strikeout rate for Gore could be a bit fluky, but Gore in the lower minors back in the day was a huge strikeout guy. His strikeout projections, which do account for probably the matchup and stuff like that, they're not a ton lower than where he's at right now. So although he may come down facing teams other than the Reds, he's probably still going to be a decent strikeout guy. I'm okay projecting Gore at 6.5 strikeouts tonight. That's where my numbers have him. And that is enough for him to be second on the slate behind just Rodan. So to me, it's Rodan won Gore two. And I think that there is a pretty big gap between them and the rest of the pack. I think that I saw that Rodan's an interior of his own. I think that Gore is also an interior of his own. Tier two behind Rodan, everyone else battling for the top of tier three. Now, as far as the value play goes, we're going back to San Francisco, the matchup for Rodan, he's facing Austin Gomber. So the Giants offense facing Gomber here. And that's still an offense I like a lot, but Gomber is a really skilled pitcher. And we saw this at times from him last year too. It was a very short stretch, but there was a stretch in the spring where Gomber was getting a lot of strikeouts while getting ground ball. So he's doing that again a bit this year. Across five starts Gomber's strikeout rate is 23%. His ground ball rate is up to 47%. Both those are good numbers. They're good numbers, not great. They're good numbers. But when you combine them together, strikeouts and ground balls, that's really, really what you want. Now the peripherals do indicate that the strikeouts for Gomber may decline a bit from where they're at right now. He's getting a bit lucky with his distribution of strikes to have a strikeout rate as high as what he has right now. But he has had gains where it does spike. Yet his 17% strikeout rate is last time out. So they may come back to earth at some point, but we will at least get some ground balls in there though. So if the strikeouts come down, at least we know he'll still be a ground ball pitcher and there is some safety in that. The Giants offense is one I generally do fear. I don't fear them quite as much against lefties as I do against righties though. They're WRC plus against lefties based on the current active roster. Since this started last year is 103, they do draw a lot of walks, but Gomber not a guy who issues a lot of walks. So I do think that we've got a couple rungs of distance between Rodan, Gore and Gomber. And I will have much more exposure to them. I think it's very worth it to spend up for them today. And I don't think hitting a salary is too restrictive, but Gomber totally fine as a value play if you want to say some salary. So to me, it's Rodan won, Gore two, Gomber three. We'll talk about Noah Cindergarten, what I'm doing with him for tonight and things to watch. First though, let's dive into the top stacks for today. And I think the one offense that I like that's in a good spot is the White Sox. I think the one offense and the spot that I don't hate is the Phillies. We'll talk about them and things to watch. I think that they are in play for stacking. But if you want a good offense in an actual good spot today, that would be the White Sox. They're facing Zach Plisac and Plisac's velocity is down quite a bit this year from where it was last year. And it hasn't improved yet. So I'm expecting the struggles he has had this year to stretch forward until that velocity starts to spike back up. I think that makes the White Sox a top stacking option for today. Last year, Plisac averaged 93 miles per hour on his Four Seam fastball according to pitch info. The slider was 86.9. So 93 at 86.9. This year, the Four Seamers down 1.7 miles per hour and the sliders down 2.5. And what's concerning is that it's not going up. You'll a lot of times see guys have low velocity to start and cold temperatures and stuff like that. But then as the year goes along, the velocity improves. But last time out, the velocity on his Four Seam fastball was the lowest it has been all year. He went up four and runs in that start. That was his second straight start letting him at least that many earned runs. And the peripherals are rough too mostly because the bad at ball profile is not good. Plisac's letting up a 40% fly ball rate with a 47% hard hit rate. That's not going to work unless you're a high strikeout guy. But as of right now, his swing and strike rate is 8.5%. I don't know how Plisac will get through this without a resurgence of his fastball velocity, which means I think we should stack against him until we see that velocity tick back up. So that puts behind the White Sox for today. I think that eventually maybe Plisac gets back to his 2019 or whatever year it was, 2020 form, not there yet and not expecting to get back there until he makes some changes to that velocity to start to crank things up once again. As far as Plisac goes, he had some reverse split tendencies since the start of last year where he's letting it more hard contact to righties and lefties. That's a good thing for the White Sox because the top four guys in lineup are all righties, though it depends on where you are in Monca, the batsman today. But, and I think that again, that does make the righties pretty appealing. I will say though that Yasmani Grandal should eventually snap out of his slump. He's still hitting the ball hard, putting it in the air. The results have been awful and that's concerning, but I think that he should turn that around soon. So I don't want to overthink the struggles from Moncada or for Grandal, I should say. I think eventually he'll snap into it and I want to be on him then. And also Moncada back today, I, you know, the numbers he had in a very small sample in his rehab stints, he looked good. So I'm okay giving Moncada a swing for today, $2,800 for him. I think that both he and Grandal, despite being lefties against police act with some reverse splits tendencies, I think they are very fine for this one. Now we get into the bad offenses. Cause I think that after the White Sox, we do want to dabble in the muck for a little bit. And it doesn't get a lot muckier than the A's. They're an awful offense. They had the worst WRC plus in the slate, but they did just get Ramon Lornauback from suspension, which does help them just in time for a matchup with Michael Panada. I think that's enough to give the, the A's a swipe here today. Panada is the kind of guy who gives up upside to opposing batters. He lets up a lot of fly balls and a lot of balls in play and a lot of hard contact. Last year, Panada allowed a 46% hard hit rate. So 46% of the balls in play at an exit velocity of 95 plus miles per hour. It is 51% in a small sample this year. And the fly ball rate is high too, which puts him in a really tough spot. Now the interesting thing is that doesn't always bite him because he already last year was 3.62. It's 3.77 this year, but he also has had blow-up starts, like things where things blow up in his face and that's what you want for stacking. You want the ability to find those blow-up starts. The twins hit three home runs off Panada a couple of starts ago. They know him better than most teams given he was there the past three years, but we want to target guys who give opposing hitters upside and Panada is firmly on that list. And although the A's are bad, they do at least have some palatable bats right now, which puts me on them despite the fact I do think they are legitimately very bad. With Loriano, his rehab stints in AAA was not great. He had just an 0.54 ISO across 44 plate appearances, but he wasn't striking out too much and he was putting the ball in the air. He also did steel tube base, which is good. So I'm fine being an on Loriano from the jump. I wish the rehab stint had gone better similar to Moncada's, but whatever. I'll still go there for sure because he's a competent guy and a team I want to stack. So Loriano in play for me, Seth Brown, Sean Murphy, and then either Chad Pinder or Sheldon Noisy would give you four okay batters here, which is enough to stack. And I think that the A's, despite not having a lot of depth, they've got enough guys where I'm okay with to feel fine stacking them. The final stack will be in the best park for hitting on the slate. That's a chase field and I didn't check. I believe the roof should be open for today because it's just 85 degrees and they typically are okay. Having that thing open as long as it's not like 105, we'll check it right here right now. And for today it is open. Okay, so the roof is open at chase field, checking on the fly here. And that's a good thing. 85 degrees in Arizona, which means we should want to stack the Marlins for tonight. They're facing Humberto Castellanos and he's a good target for stacking. Castellanos lets up balls in play and a lot of fly ball. Similar scenario to Panada, a little bit less hard contact with Castellanos, but still a good situation to go at. Last year Castellanos had a 15% strikeout rate, including his time in the bullpen with a 40% fly ball rate. This year also a 15% strikeout rate. That fly ball rate though up to 44%. And the results have messed the peripherals, at least those two peripherals in both these years as well. And I don't think we should expect that to change too much because Castellanos' swinging strike rate is 6.2%, which means he's not blowing pretty much anybody away and they're putting the ball in the air. That is a good recipe for upside. I know it's been a bit different this year because the fly balls just go in nowhere, but again, you gotta hit dingers and we gotta find dingers. Every dinger matters a bit more when there are fewer of them. That's my justification at least for still chasing the fly ball pitchers. The Marlins do have enough guys, similar to the A's who can take advantage. They're much better offense than the A's. They have a 105 WRC plus against righties since the start of last year. And they have plenty of individuals who we can feel good using. I think that allows us to sack them here and take advantage of the plus matchup and the plus park. The building block, the necessity here is jazzyism. I would try to have them in every single stack. A lot of times it can be hard to get in like the highest upside guy in the stack. Not with jazzym, he's $3,700. Nobody else here higher than 3,000. Even with Rodan, you can get to jazzym and all the other Marlins very, very easily. And I think that jazzym is under-salaryed. Even at 37, he should be 4,000 or so given what he has done this year and last year. So we'll have space to jam it in. I would say start with jazzym, go from there, put him in every stack. And if he's not in a lineup, downgrade the Marlins for sure. But he is the building block for today and should be one who is easy to get to regardless of where you go for your hitter. Let's go down to things to watch. I am curious to see what Noah Cindergarde will do today. The start of the year, like it's not a good DFS start. He's had good results, but like it's not what you offer DFS. A 15% strike average so far, but he is getting a really decent number of swings and misses. It's better than you would think based on that 15% strikeout rate, which means that strike average could go up. And the rest of the profile is very good. Good bat at ball profile, not a lot of locks. He's facing the raise at home today, maybe 24% strikeout rate against righties. I haven't seen enough from Cindergarde to buy in yet and I prefer a Gomber over him. But what I wanna do is keep my eye on him because if it looks like he's got good stuff for tonight, maybe that situation where we buy into him down the road, not there yet. And it's not a situation where I wanna like buy now to get ahead of things. I think I'd rather just hold off, see where things go and progress from there. So no Cindergarde yet, but we'll watch him tonight to see how things go. Mentioned before the Phillies are the best offense in the Slates and they're raising Chris Flexin. He's a good pitcher, which is why I couldn't put them in the stacking section, but they probably would be fourth for me in terms of stacks because they're a great offense. They're best offense in the Slate by a wide margin and Flexin does let up a lot of balls and play. This year he's letting up a bit too much hard contact as well. So I have to rank the Phillies below the other three stacks because I respect Flexin, but I'm fine putting them fourth just because they're a very good offense in the Slate that is lacking in those. So to me, Phillies go behind the White Sox, the A's and the Marlins, but very okay, turn into them, especially if I've got salary to burn. Finally, I do think the Diamondbacks have some appeal in that same game as the Marlins. They're facing Eliezer Hernandez who is someone I'm fine stacking against, but the bigger appeal for me than Hernandez is the park. So it's a huge park for stacking right now because if everywhere else is feeling the effects of the humidor, Arizona's had that already and it didn't really curtail offense all that much. And it's super warm there, 85 degrees versus, I believe in the 70s everywhere else. It is actually, yeah, only in the 70s one other spot, 60s or 50s everywhere else. So great spot for offense for tonight. I think that the Diamondbacks, again, despite not being great offense when we can turn to for today, Dalton Varshow, absolute stud, David Peralta's fly ball rate is spiking. So no objections here, the Diamondbacks to me, a very okay spot. And if you want to put them higher, no objections. I think that they are worthy of that for sure. Let's finish up with the home run calls for today, sticking in Arizona for the first one. I'm going to gush about Jazz Chisholm. I got to make my boring home run pick. Good spot for offense for sure, very good hitter. If he doesn't get a Homer, probably has some stolen bases in there. So to me, Jazz Chisholm, the boring home run call for today. The fun one, going back to the A's, talking about that bad offense. I got a soft spot for Seth Brown. You know, he puts the ball in the air a lot, makes hard contact against righties. Super low salary at $2,400. I've used him a couple of times in this spot and I don't think he's gone yard in the time I've done so yet, but I'm okay going back here once again. So the Dinger calls for today, Jazz Chisholm and Seth Brown. That is all that we have here for today on the Solar Shop. But I think it's a pretty fun slate to kick off your Monday and hopefully start a good week of DFS for on the MLB side of things. Again, we are back here every weekday to break down that day's slate of Daily Fantasy Baseball. Search for the number of fired Daily Fantasy podcast and wherever you get your podcasts, hit subscribe. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. If you've got questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, G-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your MLB DFS lunch tonight. Hope you had a fantastic weekend. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Tuesday's slate. This has been the solo shot right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.