 Welcome to Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for a week commencing January the 13th. We could be in for a risk of start to Asian trade this evening as we head into the London session on Monday as there are reports. This afternoon that four rockets have slammed into an Iraqi air base in North Baghdad where US troops are based. Hopefully there won't be any casualties but we should be cautious that we could see a risk of start trading this week. The highlight of the week in theory should be the signing of the phase one trade deal in Washington on Wednesday. In terms of US data we'll get updates on inflation Tuesday, retail sales Thursday and industrial production on Friday. The soft December manufacturing ISM reading is still sending warning signals over the industrial sector. There are no signs yet that weakness here is spreading into other sectors. Notably, even events in the Middle East so far have not budged the market from its thinking that the Fed policy rate will remain untouched throughout the first half of 2020. From a technical perspective the dollar index staged a recovery as anticipated this week but we are starting to see signs of this recovery running into some resistance. Certainly as we head up into the descending trend line resistance at 97.90 with the monthly R1 pivot just above at 97.80. We'll be looking for fresh selling to emerge in the market here as we then will look for a trade back down through the yearly pivot at 97.10 opening up a retest of support down to 96.50. We're talking about the dollar, let's check in with gold. Gold, as we anticipated, had duly broken out of its consolidation phase and has seen us trade up above our 1585 target to test offers and stops above the 1600 level. We saw a sharp reversal in the middle of last week as the tensions regarding the Middle East situation began to wane somewhat. However, gold has found support at the prior highs at the 1550-1540 area. As this level supports we can anticipate that there's the potential to retest these offers and stops above 1600. If we can take those out look for a test of 1630 as the next upside objective. However, if we fail to capitalise on Friday's reversal and we break back down through the 1540 area I'd be looking for a move back down to test the monthly pivot at the 1500 level. In Canada the job situation recovered in December after the dreadful November reading with the unemployment rate falling to 5.6% and full-time hiring displaying a solid rebound. Ultimately this should ease worries about the imminent downturn in the Canadian labour market and keep the pressure off the Canadian dollar for now. In terms of data releases this week the Bank of Canada business outlook survey will be watched amid an otherwise sparse calendar. A technical perspective the Canadian dollar recovered to test the monthly pivot at the 13090 area. If we fail to get a close back above this 13090 area look for fresh sellers to step in and we would anticipate a retest down back at the 12960 support and then the potential to extend down to test the Pivotal 12840-12850 descending trendline support and the monthly S1. If we can get a close back above the 131 level look for a test of 132 where the yearly pivot comes in. The European data calendar is relatively quiet this week. We'll see November industrial production data on Wednesday and the minutes of the December European Central Bank meeting. The focus here will probably be on what is to be expected of the strategic review on monetary policy for example a change in the inflation target. The euro has started here in a quiet fashion despite events in the Middle East and at the margin is showing a negative correlation with risk as the euro builds out its status as a funding currency. A technical perspective the euro has tested down to a symmetry swing support target identified in the daily market outlook this week at the 111. Biodas have stepped in here and we did see a reversal on Friday however the reversal wasn't sufficient to flip the daily chart bullish as per the near term volume weighted average price. I've been looking for a close back above 111.30 to encourage the potential to see a retest of the prior highs up towards 112.30. If we can't reclaim the monthly pivot at 111.50 look for a test down to test towards 110.60 and 110.40 where we have a bigger symmetry swing objective with the decline that we saw from the 21st of October through to the 2nd of December. Likely being replicated to see us test this 110.40 support area. What we're talking about the euro let's check in with the DAX. The DAX Julia recovered as we saw across most of the major equity markets this week and we're now looking for a test of this long held target at the 13658 area. As we get up to this area I'd be looking for some profit taken to emerge and certainly see a correction from the 13658 back down to test the breakout level here at probably around 13400. If we don't find fresh buyers at 13400 this profit taking move could extend back to test the monthly pivot at 13160 and even a sending trend lines bought down to 13000 itself. Comments from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney suggest that the central bank may have ended their Brexit moratorium and be edging towards a rate cut. If so this will probably take place in the May meeting. The UK jobs data will probably have the biggest say as to whether the BOE does cut rates. Over this week we don't get any jobs data but instead we receive updates on inflation Tuesday and retail sales Friday. The former should not be a big market mover but indications of poor Christmas sales point to downside risk to the December retail sales figure. The sterling pound is rotating between two key levels. If we can hold the 13020 as support there's the potential to retest back into the 13380 area which would be an ABCD equidistant swing target. However as we continue to trade below the 130285 and certainly if we can take out last week's lows in the 130 I'd be looking for a move back down to test support towards 129. If we fail here then I'd be anticipating a test of the ascending trend line support and the ABCD downside target at 12760 to 12780. Japanese data in the coming weeks sees the November balance of payment data and call machinery orders. Neither of these is likely to excite the yen too much. Instead the local focus will be on whether the Nikkei 225 can push to a new cycle high above the 25,000 level representing its highest level since the early 1990s. Obviously we want to pay attention at the Asian Open with respect to the news coming out of the Middle East. This may impact the ability of the Nikkei to push higher early in the week. From a technical perspective the dolly inn is back up testing this key resistance level, the third test here at the 10960 to 10970 area. As this level caps I'd be looking for a move back down to test 10850 once again in this well trodden range. Test that 10850 as support if we can hold there again and I still see the potential that we on a fourth test of this resistance area would break higher and ultimately test the 11050 equidistant swing target. However a failure to find support at this 10850 will likely have us back down looking towards bids at the 108 level. In Australia obviously unfortunately and sadly so, focus is likely to continue to be on the bushfire crisis. Reports suggest that multiple fires have merged over the weekends at the border of New South Wales and Victoria. With such environmental crisis in place and uncertainty around the impact on the Australian economy. With the lack of tier 1 data this week the Australian dollar will likely take its lead from risk sentiment and the US-China trade deal on Wednesday. We did see a sharp reversal on Friday from the symmetry swing support area identified in my chart of the day. If we can see some follow through early in the week above this 69 level, look for a close back above the 6935 monthly pivot to encourage bullish spirits to set the stage. To set the stage for a retest at the 70-30 level and on towards 71 as the next level upside. However, if we can't capitalise on Friday's reversal and we see prices back down retesting the 6850, I'll be looking for a move to extend down to the 68 level. The ascending trend line support where we may see some fresh bids emerge and I'll be looking for a bullish reversal patterns in and around this area to potentially set long positions again. Looking for a retest at 70-30 high. That concludes the weekly market outlook for a week in and seeing January 13th.