 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi folks, on this Friday, March the 4th, Basil Chapman Tiger Technicians Hour, 877-976648 is the number to call, got a series of things I wanted to go through, pertaining to questions that I got yesterday and overnight. So let's get to this, the first one. Yes, we did go to that leg B. Yes, it was the fifth candle after the low that was made on the 24th of February, after the 32,272 low, and it did not hold, and that's what I said both on my show and to subscribers, the risk reward of getting the low that was made the previous day so that we could get a quick trade and get out on a big pop, it wasn't there, didn't want to do it, and of course none of us knew that there would be, well maybe somebody did, but most of us didn't expect that there would be, not just a pullback yesterday, that was something that I was fearing that there would be a sudden pullback, but as far as the uranium is concerned, nuclear, we've got to be careful. What's happening now is beyond the standards, I don't think I heard a single general talking about this at all, and maybe they did, I just didn't hear it. So what we're looking at here are aspects to the war that's going on that are beyond normality, of course no war is normal, but beyond normality just what Putin can do under the ages of talking about the West and how he feels he's being attacked by whatever it is, anything can happen, and that's really the point that I wanted to make, that anything can happen, but look at the chart, when you think that the high was made, let me go through the numbers quickly. Downs down 427 to 33,361. 36952 was the high back in the 5th of January, when you think here we are exactly a month later, sorry, two months later, so we go January, all of January, all of February, just begun March, and all we've done is gone from let's call it 37,000, down to let's call it 32,000, 5,000 points with everything that's going on, all I can say is that it's been a huge digester phase, but what can the Fed do now, because the numbers this morning, jobless, you've got, what was that, 300, oh I missed it, 180,000 was it, sorry, 380,000, that was the number, 380,000, that's a really good number. The unemployment rate is back to that low, low, low level of 50 years, technically under every single circumstance over the last year, I don't see why if business activity was starting to improve over the last six months and then especially over the last three months, why the Fed couldn't have said normalization would just be at a quarter point whenever we think it's necessary, bad, big deal, so they do a quarter of a point, the rates are low, low, low. So what is the Fed going to do right now? On the one hand, they're kind of obligated, and on the other hand, we are on the doorstep, I mean look at my DBA, not mine, but our DBA, the Agricultural Fund, at a new recovery high of 2264, I said 2227, earlier this morning, leg G smashed D, I think, whatever you think about, top action, surely you're going to have a bit of a breather here, but that is really important, look at wheat, wheat, now look, I circled, you wouldn't look at this, you look and think, green candle in the daily chart, oh look, huge green candle in the weekly, oh look, look, look, huge green candle in the monthly G slash C, but wait a minute, where is wheat? Look, you see that little, you see that little line there, the tiny line that says 1209, opens at 1209, has a high of 1209, it has a low of 1209, and it closed, where do you think it closed? It closed at 1209, well, the gate is young, it's only open, I wouldn't be surprised if it actually does pull back after this limit up, look at yesterday's action, so how you can't think that there's going to be inflation that just drives right through the economy, that's wrong thinking, we are going to get some kind of inflation, look at corn, corn up 35 at 782 and 3 quarters, look at this move, yesterday I said I'm going to have to call this, I think I typed it in, but I lost a little data there, so let me put this in, G slash C, give me a break, I mean this is, now it's parabolic, remember yesterday I was saying vertical, vertical, but in a very short term, now we have to look at it and say, are we looking at this as a parabolic? And as it gets smoothed out, I'm looking at continuous contract, so as it gets smoothed out, look what happens, remember way back, this was the B, for those of you who always look at my notations, this was the B right here, where is it? It's at about 762, but that was before it got smoothed out, there's not a split or anything, it just gets smoothed out every month, they just take the chart pattern, everything but the price is 100% correct, what is not right is that the price gets changed and that change obviously expands to the upside when it's going up, expands to contract to the downside when it's going down, so there's the old B, I'm going to just keep it there, I'll make it faint so it doesn't get in the way of all our thinking, let's just do that, okay we've got it, alright there it is, that's like when I talk about splits, remember I think it was Apple, was it Apple? Yeah, Apple, remember I had this trough A right there and that was the trough that was in, what we had right now in January of 2019, it is at 35.50, what was the split on Apple, anybody know, maybe it was 10 for one and I don't even know what it was, but that's where A was once upon a time and 142 round number low, oh that was 142 round number low and here it is at 35.50, how would that work, is that five? Well whatever it is, 71, thank you Larry I think, whatever it is you've got to split and yeah we are way above that split only because it is a split, nothing changed but the pricing, but the chart, the names, the letters, everything about it, nothing's changed, alright, so let's go back, so we're talking about the only thing that changed here, not changed, that didn't make the high is soybeans, soybeans made at peak E, once again continuous contracts and you'll have something different if you're looking at the futures with a monthly price, but we're looking at this as, uh oh, wiggle, wiggle, wiggle, okay let me just change the mice, there we are, I've got the other one, a little noisy one, okay let's go, there it is, so that was 17.59 and a quarter, right then, that was on the 24th thing, yep 24th affair, with a market mate, it's low, this is making it high and now we've got inside, look, remember I have a whole webinar, in fact I've spoken about offering in my webinars, on rectangles, there's a narrow rectangle that can go a lot longer than your patient and then there's a wide rectangle that if it holds the initial low off that's that quick spike to the upside and sharp through back, it can start to make it look certain, uh, chapter wave, B-A, B-B, higher B-C and then a D, going to, just over the previous high, so that means you can go higher with soybeans. 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Alright, so what we're looking at in the Chathamay methodology, the large rectangle that you control on a spike to the upside like a flagpole pulls back sharply and then holds the low and starts to make higher highs and higher lows says that there's a chance that soybean, if it takes out the high that was made yesterday of remember this is the continuous contract 1699 round number if it takes it out and I have to say it has to take it out by about in this case I would say 5 points and then close above it there's a really good chance that somehow it's going to worm its way at least to the 1728 level but it could even get because the rule of thumb is the wide rectangle not the long narrow rectangle it's going to drive you nuts every time you think it's going to break out it pulls back every time you think it breaks down that's not the way to trade it you've got to trade it with quick moves up and quick moves down and then get out you'll be wrong at some point because it will break down further or break up further but the rectangle starts to make a lopsided U shaped pattern in this case it will be a sharp dip it's called a quarter I was looking this up in the bunch of things I'll talk about in a moment I don't always have time today but I was looking to see what is the half of a semicircle and it looks like it's a quarter I was looking at voting things and so this says that there could be a move to the right side and by about I would have to put it today is the fourth fourth you've got 5, 6 that's the weekend but by about Wednesday of next week if the wheat sorry the soybeans have taken out 17 14 and have treated 1686 a support there's a really good chance that by sometime next week you could get really close in length C or even D close to the high that was made right here at 1759 and a quarter on 24th of Feb and if it takes out 1630 on the downside you've got your dreaded age pattern says be careful because not only could you take out the low that was made at 1579 that's the low of the 25th but you could go a lot lower to me right now with the way we're looking at the inflationary aspect of all these grains I don't know I think soybeans catch up to the others even sugar look at this SB look at that moving sugar so you went to a peak B and then you start to count again remember the chaplain wave I wanted to show this today this is your starting point so every truck to the downside as long as it doesn't take out the left side starting point means that from that moment on every peak gets counted every wave is just to count each higher peak and each higher low lower lower low so this is B AB, gray A and B because it's underneath the previous high this is still a gray C because it's underneath the previous high this doesn't go to C from there this continues the nearest and I usually put a little plus sign to say hey we restarted the wave count because that was the initial low the pi signal so this is leg D what do we have we have sugar this is all part of the DBA we have the DBA Agricultural Fund remember we are long from the 13's whoops in leg okay there it goes DBA this is the fun it also has a little bit of oil and I think natural gas this is a leg G slash D I can't rule out that this is a D in the daily weekly E monthly E look at wheat again at wheat at wheat that has a move that's still a price point leg E gap up E wow two gaps almost yeah three gaps we got a three gap play I just don't see what unless all the countries the western countries and in fact all the countries in the world other than Russia say you know what we're gonna push our wheat production you can't do it in a day what over over the weekend we're gonna push our production up 25% are you kidding you gotta buy tractors you gotta it's a huge process you can increase if you're already doing it but you can't start fresh and you can't start taking your own products and then suddenly pushing that level up 20% you gotta have the grain so all I'm saying is this this is an extraordinary it is telling us that inflation at some point you will just see an exponential rise and look at this GIS I haven't even looked at it for a few days this is general mills foods right hasn't gone through your time holding quite well you're looking at let me get to a couple of others what was the one that we were looking at Kraft Heinz K H S no I can't remember what it is in the den I'm sure someone will tell me what is Kraft Heinz K H C thank you and Jeff would have that look at this Kraft Heinz way down to the bottom look at that it made a high of oh I had this all notated I hope it's all notated yeah peak C minus was a low that's right they changed they got a new symbol and that was back in 2015 so it goes up to about 98 and then it goes down to a low of 20 on March March of 2020 and and then it runs up to the 41 area and it's holding it's having a nice counter-gen rally but wow this is not any high so I'm just saying that the products are going to go not just I mean for anyone okay let me see who that is that's not for me I don't think that's for me alright so as far as I'm concerned we've got a little problem and yes Coca Cola this is a very interesting look Coca Cola made a peak G high yesterday it was this huge gap to the upside I've only got it as a C in the weekly all-time high of E but you know that's in a different category that's probably in a category where everybody's nervous they're probably drinking more coke so I don't know about that alright let's get back to our story I haven't finished that I wanted to show you so the S&P right now has had some a decent a pretty sharp pullback from the high that was made yesterday at 44.16 at 43.02 but it hasn't broken down yet if the S&P at any points this is the cash maybe I should just go to the because it's Sunday night that we're talking about let's go to the futures and I've got the continuous contract here only because that gives me a beautiful monthly chart I don't get that in the in the latest futures the March so I'm going to go to there and that just says if at any point between Sunday night and Monday if there is a close below 42.50 and we're at 42.98 we're down 60 we're doing this every day we're moving 50, 60, 70 points up and down that dreaded H pattern right here with a failure in a very small arch formation says be real careful because the low that was made on the 24th in the S&P could quickly be tested one of the reasons why I say to subscribers we're in this good cash position we're raising cash we have short term trades some work some don't 41.01 let's say a close below 41.00 anytime next week says oh my goodness this is starting to it's really starting to impact the indices in a very very negative way so I just wanted to get that out the way let's just do this I wanted to look at the QQQ QQQ is also turning down QQQ7 a close of the CQQ system be careful I'll be back in a moment I haven't got a whole bunch of questions I'll get to them as soon as we can 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Hello so just a real quick question in the dentist I have about straight option Max Payne you know over the years someone comes up and says Max Payne and all that I just haven't followed it I follow other things I make a note of it but I'm just off the hand my memory doesn't actually recall any percentage that I've ever given it as in my own mind accuracy rating and that would just be kind of anecdotal so I absolutely can't talk to that but the question really pertain to Nike Nike Inc B shares sport and sportswear 131 79 down to 18 today this action in the weekly chart is suggesting very strongly that the low of that was I think June let me check yeah June the week of 18th of June of 176.68 that between that area and the 125 125 to me that would be a natural target based on the acceleration down in the daily but it's really the weekly MACD where the histogram hasn't even started it tried and this is the beginning of the month but it had tried to improve it's actually down at the lows of four months ago this is the vertical 0% line and that just and it's a flag remember I always say any stock that I'm looking at that we own that goes to 93 95% in the stochastic and flattens out that is every book that you read about technical analysis says that's called overbought I say overbought that's what you want to see that's like the biggest buy mode sustaining pattern that you could ever find and so to me that that's the clue look even Nike look once it broke above the stochastic in the monthly chart broke above in August of 2020 and was at about a hundred it stayed there until it broke down and it broke down right there December of 2021 what was the high the high was one month before November and the next month which was December so November makes the high just under 180 and then you get to turn down stochastic so to me this is the exact opposite we've got a flat stochastic at 9% think of it as 91% on the upside this is 9% on the downside and flat it says there is no strength there whatsoever so I think that my target on the short term would be 125 126 to 124 and we'll have to see how it holds there if it can and that's also going to be market conditions together with everything else and look at this double this is the dreaded H pattern right there went to a peak D fourth highest peak that's where you got to get kind of cautious yellow light flashes in the weekly monthly chart made a peak D look where it is I that's that's my target all right I can only answer it in that way and my food dances if 125 breaks 104 area is possible but we have to go one step at a time is it 131 we've got 7 points to go down it could do that in days it could actually take 3 weeks to do it if it's going to could have a balance in between so I'm just saying I go one level at a time absolutely if that takes is taken out there's just an there's a vortex underneath it and that's Nike so this and this is a great international company so it's telling us something I think that's a lot of things and it's probably competition next thing I want to look at here what it was it yeah Exxon look at this Exxon out of CVX which is Chevron Exxon Exxon was the lagging but look at this this Exxon is absolutely fantastic is that 8216 is up a dollar 10 but this is what I like to do these these double tops the top that was made at 82 point 83.08 on the 7th of February you make the cup formation and when you get back you want to see has the MACD cross positive as a deflected lower as the stochastic held above 80 percent on balance volume is very good maybe a tad overboard but it's still very good so what happens here is going to be key but you know that nothing is going to change in the oil market for the better other than words the words can flow I'll talk about words in a moment I'm expecting that you get to your leg D if Exxon closes any day I'm even saying one day closes above 85 I think that that low that was made the high that was made at 83.08 83 to 82 becomes support and I think you could even go higher so this is the key whatever happens in the next week if it drops sharply at this point I don't think 78 would be really good support so oil is I said to subscribers yesterday this is a three letter word that we're looking at it's absolutely critical OIL now I want to talk about something else I used to complain like crazy I always thought President Trump had some really good ideas he was just totally inarticulate when it came to when being interviewed just in his mind he should have had summarized whether it was impeachment whatever it is you should have had just real facts and just said them as clearly as possible no finger pointing no nothing these are the facts he was this inarticulate values are ticket about other things but totally inarticulate when it came to doing the proper thing about publicity about TV about being interviewed if you are a politician you know about that you know how to stand in front of a camera and just grab that news every moment you can and try to just nail and stop whatever is being discussed I'm afraid we're just about to see the same thing with this president instead of articulating here's the issue I'm holding up my left hand here's the issue that's what we're dealing with he says yes the issue but I want you to wear light clothes because if it gets too hot I mean he's talking about something completely different deal with oil oil is the issue right now it's actually too late because when the Russians were at the border we knew about all these things we knew that they were going to go in we knew oil would be an issue now the now the horse is out the barn I don't know how you catch the horse and those Ukrainians who are civilians we're going to stand up and fight never held a gun haven't seen a gun firsthand in my life I've got a gun I got to go shoot people this is it's tragic what's going on right now so my complaint is articulation about the focal point and the focal point had been oil it is still oil and it is something that is dramatic and we can see at the price of oil which anybody get full up in the last couple of days look at this 112.93 we were at 85.65 in October of 2018 we plunged to well 761 there were a whole bunch of issues there that was that crazy where the futures went minus 40 or something 761 April of 2020 we are now 20 times well almost 20 times this is crazy I mean we are above that 85.65 by almost 30 points so this is your issue hey let's see what natural gas is doing let's go to UNG oh question came in can you look at UNG yes UNG this is usually the time of the year when natural gas is kind of that it's done somewhere between the end of last month and somewhere into maybe late March usually you start to see some kind of topping action and then it just kind of fizzles for a while this is this is being dragged up so I don't know if natural gas is as big an issue right now because it's huge gap we don't want to see 18 it's a 17 29 it is up 65 percent but it's only lagging in that quick angle and you got through with tea and that's just maybe it's not going to be like true well I'll be back in a moment to discuss are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas where the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest 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other hosts we're always learning something everybody has their own techniques I've gone back to putting in fib retracement levels etc and I try to identify if I can visually Larry's got the patterns etc but I also use my own measured move remember measure move from the left side to the right side if you use a plum line meaning visually it looks like you can start on your way down or up in the same number of bars to get back to that original starting point and this case I'm going to just snap this in right here there's the midpoint so we went from the 42 60-ish 42 right there 42-83 50 low at 8 that was last night at 10 o'clock can't be last night 10 well yeah last night at 10 that's right that's right there was the this smash to the downside in 10-minute E-mini chart was when the there we go when there was a discussion about the fire at the nuclear reactor plant so what we're looking at here is comes down sharply and then it starts to rally and then within it it has your peak A and your pullback and now you get underneath it you get great peak A, great peak B when it goes above it it becomes blue C D the MACD is good it's above the 9 EMA the stochastic holds for a brief moment over 80% goes to a D has kind of a right arm extension to an E and then the plummets comes down and then it goes to each one of these fib levels holds there for a little while and then what happens because it's gone negative right there about four in the morning in the this is the 10-minute chart the 9 goes into the 14 look at happens even that big spike that occurred earlier this morning at about 8 30 failed and now it says that based on this left side right side price time match if we take out the load that was made at 10 20 this morning of 42 8950 there could be a sudden crunch and it has to be within the next two bars that's two 10-minute bars before my show ends towards the 40 to 8350 level it's done almost it's almost accomplished everything right now and if I do that I just want to mention these are the techniques I try to use and I teach and I for my subscribers be looking at them all the time so let's go back so I did the gold in the update gold is now up 23 at 1969 this is really important because you've got the speed of this rectangle formation making the cup formation that just says to me that 1976 high that was made on the 24th I'm just watching that the MACD is good the stochastic is still weak it's under 70% on balance volume says it's a tad overboard but that doesn't mean it has it turns down 9 is way above the 14 this is just so bullish one of the reasons why we have a gold stock and we want to be participating in this gold area is because the mix of our portfolio is with commodities it's being important to look at these commodities we've got some of our all these but it's the commodities that are really acting well so I wanted to say that's look at the way that's acting look at silver remember silver always say silver lags lags lags and all of a sudden picks up it looks like it's leading and as soon as the two go together you get this stall in both the silver and the gold will it do that right now don't you think in in geopolitical term geoeconomic political terms that gold is a currency of fear and that is in play talk about a currency of fear look at this the dollar is a currency of respect for the united states in the terms of economic and I always call it the visual the visual holly davidson in the economy and currency world it's just global it's not against nothing you with holly davidges holly holly around the world people knew about holly davidges just like the used to know about louis armstrong so in this particular instance this is showing that there's still money going to the in the world of currencies this is where you're going and you would think that bitcoin as a kind of a subterfuge would be screaming to the upside it's not in play at all we had a we had a play in we still got a tiny core position we had this as this huge move back into the the high that was made back in april of 20 was it 2021 was it april at 66000 310 pullback sharply they ran up to 69 950 we take took a whole bunch of good price now we've got a little tiny core just a tiny little bit I want to keep in and we keep trying to maybe attempt to trade this is not working for bitcoin and now if you're looking at high-grade copper high-grade copper is this high-grade copper is at 4.894 it's up point is up 0.112 if you're looking at high-grade copper high this is telling us that world economies might be a little bit better than you would think based on but no I think this is a materials this is a treated as a commodity that could get rarer under these conditions that's why I think it's working so high-grade copper we do have a long position in the copper stock but this is acting it's getting a little toppy for sure but it's in play there's no question about it all right let's look at crude oil again crude oil we're looking at makes a high yesterday with all that's going on it didn't overnight I thought wow let's see copper it did have a really good rally but today hasn't gone through yesterday's continuous contract I have 1657 but it's in play and what I said before is CVX was the leader Exxon was following just look at this spiral to the upside now what happens when it spirals to the upside and it isn't just a news event that says oh it's a one-time thing what happens is the consolidation that takes place turns into a type of flag or rectangle formation and it has a high level consolidation if it continues in play and that's why I'm going to put this in here to say the one 148 area under terrible conditions for oil that is could see the CVX pull back but I'd say that I think it's going to have a high level consolidation unless internationally there's this thing that says we're going to open the spigots and we're going to push crude oil and we're going to see that Putin is beaten back financially and I don't know why when you think of those 40 miles of military vehicles I kept saying to myself I know it's a dream but surely somebody should have just you know those movies that you see where you've got the line of whatever it is and you've got the plane that comes in with strafing all those vehicles in a single line what more could you want nobody did that nobody blew up one of the roads to say okay you want to get across and have to go all the way back use up your gasoline what happens when these guys run out of gasoline I don't know this is a really complex thing let's just have a look at that 10 minute chart where are we yep we're kind of coming down we've come a little bit lower well that's the pattern that we were looking at and it looks like a staple doesn't seem like an inverted staple I think it looks like an inverted staple look I would call it a staple pattern that has too many other implications alright the dial is now down 500 oh my god SB 169 not a good day I'll be back in a moment for the final segment oh I still got those questions I haven't dealt with we'll deal with them in our region and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible to get some advice from the experts 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I don't think so there could be a balance I can only choose this amount look at the euro look at this Eiffel tower straight up straight down in the monthly chart it's trading at 1.09193 I can't stand those numbers and look at this plunge to the downside here and the MACD says it's not over and the stochastic and MACD in the weekly chart says there's actually a little bit more room to the downside in the euro at this particular point so that makes that low that was made back in March of 2020 at 1.063 I'm not going there just one step at a time let's see how 1.08 can hold let's see we're there and now a couple of things so the questions come in let me just quickly have a look here yeah so Basil that snap that you were talking about yesterday 28 days it looks like it was 27 days it is way over the 24.32 low the 3rd of February so it has accomplished what you had discussed in terms of this particular Chapmanway volume price climax reversal can go for 28 days if it holds successfully in that period it can go for 56 we can double it this one says it didn't even get to a C and it went to a P B you got to be really careful in this particular area next question was where was it yes so thank you Tom E for that for those levels that you mentioned I'll be checking them out I appreciate that I will be in touch at some point just being a real busy time we were looking at DSX the other day we were looking at some of the shippers how Diana's shipping so the shippers had a great move to the upside now they're kind of stalling and I think one is that there are so many issues going on that we might see some of those bulk ships being going from certain areas to the weeks to the to the port and to oil let's see if there's a change NAT would be one we'd look at Nordic American