 Hello, and welcome to NewsClicks International Roundup. Today, we take a look at the developments following Iran's decision to not comply with certain provisions of the JCPOA or the Iran Nuclear Deal. This comes after months of U.S. sanctions that have hit the Iranian economy very hard. To talk more about this, we have with just Praveepur Goyas, hello Praveep. Praveep, so the Iranian response is not a knee-jerk one. It's been a couple of months since the U.S. has escalated its measures. Right now, they've even taken what can be even called a measured decision. So could you just take us through what these steps, what these decisions are in their impact? Well, Trump has withdrawn from the JCPOA quite some time back and has been progressively ratcheting up the sanctions on Iran. His argument is Iran has to basically submit completely, give up in entirety, and also indefinitely its ability to enrich uranium. All the other steps that the JCPOA had given a certain period within which they have to do that. So in effect, also, Trump has asked them to talk about bring the missile issues on the table. And Iran should not therefore be also allowed to stockpile or use missiles, which are again completely within the, shall we say, any understanding of the JCPOA does not extend to missiles. So that's always been an issue that these are completely unilateral steps by which the United States is trying continuously to ratchet up the pressure and make them submit more and more. And if they do that, then Iran's ability to be a player in the region then virtually ceases. They've also been asked that you cannot support the Hezbollah, you cannot support the forces in Syria. So there's a whole range of things that Iran is being asked to do. By all accounts, if they accept this, then that's essentially giving up Iranian sovereignty, which is very unlikely to do. So what Iran has been hoping that the European powers, who are the other guarantors of the JCPOA, the Iran agreement, a nuclear deal that you were talking about, that they would take actually measures by which Iran could still continue to observe the agreement, even if the United States pulled out of it. Now, the European powers have given lip service that, yes, what the US is doing is wrong, we stick by the agreement, but they are not willing to buck the US sanctions. And even the payment mechanism, which they have set up is so weak, virtually it has not affected the sanctions at all. So almost all the European countries have also accepted the American sanctions while talking about not accepting it. Given that Iran has a hard choice, they either tell the Europeans, shape up, stand by us, do something concrete or this agreement is really not going to be effective. As a first step, they have given them 60 days notice in this particular measure, and they said we'll restart enrichment of uranium. If we look at the original agreement, they had actually dismantled a huge number of centrifuges, they had dismantled other facilities they had. So all of this is really in the belief that they were getting something which would be a durable, stable agreement. This not having happened, this time if Iran starts, I doubt very much that any agreement with the US is something they would consider seriously. Because the US has shown repeatedly that it is no longer willing to abide by international law or any agreement itself has signed on the plea that the previous president signed is not me. Now the world cannot be held to shall we say the electoral fortunes of presidents of the United States. So this becomes very difficult for any country then to reach any agreement to the United States. It starts by conceding certain things and then gradually says no you have to concede more and this ratcheting up continuously the pressure makes it almost impossible to have any stable arrangement in the international arena at all. So I think this is a very serious development that we are seeing and as we know there are other developments also taking place in the area, particularly with respect to the US military moves that's something that we also need to look at. And as far as Iran's announcements are concerned on the one hand they have said that they will continue uranium enrichment and also that they will also resume the export of heavy water as well as enriched uranium. So do you see these steps as in some senses being able to pressurize the Europeans or is it also an indicator that Iran is looking at say expanding its capacities much more. I don't think at this moment they are really bothered about restarting the shall we say the nuclear bomb program because that they were very clear that was not their intention. But they do want to show they have nuclear capability. What does the sanctions really do? The sanctions that US have imposed means that Iran who had the ability to export enriched uranium cannot do so. It also means that Iran cannot export heavy water which it produces. So both these have come under US sanctions. Now are the Europeans willing to extend mechanisms by which these sanctions will not take effect or will they also while paying lip service go ahead and accept that this is de facto the situation they can't do anything about it. This is really the crux of what the Iranian dilemma is at the moment and they have said enough is enough we waited I think about 18 months for all this nothing has happened. So we are now saying that these clauses of the JCPO they have said this clause we are withdrawing from right now but we have the right to withdraw from other clauses too. And I think the next clause they will talk about is really going to be enriched heavy water. Now you must also understand one thing Iran produces heavy water. If it cannot export it it is going to violate JCPOA anyway because there are limits to how much it can hold. It enriches uranium if it cannot export it that also will violate JCPOA. So they are going to be in violation if other countries do not lift say the heavy water or enriched uranium earlier that's sold enriched uranium to Russia. Now so all of these have to be taken together to see that it is not that it is just a question of Iran withdrawing from certain clauses but the US is making it sure that the Iranians cannot continue to observe the JCPOA but the kind of sanctions sanctions are imposing in Iran. So they are sort of caught in this double bind even if you do not violate the JCPOA because of the sanctions you will be forced to violate it. And if the other countries do not accept that they have to violate the US sanctions or they will not observe the US sanctions if they don't take that step then either way Iranians are going to be in a default situation. So they are saying okay let's withdraw then from certain clauses JCPOA one of the clauses the enriched uranium the second clause is going to be heavy water and they are also discussing at the moment should they also withdraw from NPT. So these are all discussions going on within Iranians so we are not at a happy moment because we had a welcomed the world had welcomed the Iranian nuclear deal as a major version of a war possibility. I think we are very much back on the war in West Asia and with Iran and US of course US as shall we say the front runner for the Israelis in this case we are really facing a war like situation here. And like you said the US naval force is also positioned itself in the Persian Gulf and I think the Iranian Foreign Minister mentioned that they are probably looking for some sort of an accident which provides a reason to start a war so any random gesture could be something on those lines. You know US earlier has had wars on the pretext of different kinds we have Vietnam you have Korea's you have enough accidents that have happened in the past so that's something that can always be manufactured and the way the global opinion now is more or less the US narrative seems to dominate whatever happens. Now if you see what they have done Abraham Lincoln is a aircraft carrier its move could be considered as something which is routine it would be considered it's a war like gesture. Now all of this we have to see it in the framing within which Bolton statements have to be read and Bolton frames it as a step towards war he effectively says we know that they're doing something we don't know exactly what. But we know they're planning something and therefore we have moved Abraham Lincoln over there. Now that means it's not a routine maneuver it's a response to something they claim the Israelis have told them or at least there are indications that this information is supposed to have come from Israel. We know that Israel is not really shall be saying honest broker in the arrangement. They are the ones who wanted the United States to take out Saddam Hussein and Iraq and of course they have been wanting for the last 10, 12, 15 years that the US also will take out Iran whatever the consequences for the region may be. So given this I think we have to read in Bolton statements and intend to build up the pressure for war hoping that they can create by themselves or by something that Iranians do that they can claim that this is cause for action. And then you have a situation which could lead which could lead to what they think is a limited shooting war. But as we know this kind of things are so uncertain. There are about I think 20,000 American soldiers within Iranian missile range. The states of Hormuz which carries about 20% of the world's oil through it. One of the the most important joke points for oil that is very easy to shut off by either the US or the Iranians. Iranians have already said if we are not allowed to export oil we'll have to see whether anybody else can do so. So all of this taken together it does mean that we are looking at dangerous times. The problem we have in the world Prashant is a different one. We don't seem to be having any mechanism to stop a regime like the United States which has become rogue for the last 15, 20 years which doesn't abide by international law. Believes that whatever it does it does not need to consider either international opinion or international law. And this is I think the most shall we say the most dangerous situation that the world faces because you have a rogue superpower in our midst. Thank you.