 My talk today is strengthening the water related disaster resilience for sustainable development. I want to start my talk with the short introduction to history of the background of the sustainable development. As you know, in September 2015, United Nations and participating countries representative at the UN General Assembly agreed the sustainable development goals. It consists of 17 goals and 199 targets. But we had a long discussion for developing these goals, starting with 1972. First UN conference on human environment was held in Stockholm, outcome document only one Earth. The discussion completed, but at the end of this conference one participant from developing country mentioned. Okay, so this only one Earth, the outcome document, emphasized to reduce the effect of the pollution associated with development on human health and natural environment. That is the target of this conference. And at the end of the conference he said, we want to pollution. We want to pollution caused by development. We need a development for human health and end of poverty and improvement of the education and the human life. So our discussion at the United Nations on environment starts with this South and North conflict from the first. And responding to the desertification and tropical rainforest deforestation, UNEP meeting was held in 1982. One of the output of this meeting was establishment of one specific commission, that was Bluntland Commission. Dr. Bluntland became the prime minister of Norway. So she led this commission and developed the final report, our title of our common future. In this document, the sustainable development was defined by saying, humanity has the ability to make development sustainable to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generation to meet their own needs. This concept was fully agreed and it was used as the basic concept of the UN conference on environment and development. This is so-called Rio Summit in 1992. Based on this concept, the Agenda 12, 21 and climate change and biodiversity framework and convention were established. Very big progress. However, after that, not the practical achievement had not been obtained. Then based on the leadership of the past UN Secretary General, Mr. Kofi Annan, the Millennium Development Goals were developed by the effort of the central officials of the UN headquarters. And to get the practical progress, in 2002, World Summit on Sustainable Development was held in Johannesburg as the 10-year anniversary of the Rio Summit. And they agreed the plan of implementation. This is an action plan. And then, 10 years later, UN Conference on Sustainable Development was held in Rio de Janeiro as a 20-year anniversary. The future we want, the outcome document mentioned, we have affirmed our commitment to making every effort to accelerate the achievement of the internationally agreed development goal. And we got this goal. So more than 40 years, the long discussion, we are now reaching this stage. Water, the clean water and sanitation is the goal six. But as you know, water closely related to other goals and targets. This chart says group one target, these are the strongly related to water. Group two target, these are the related to the water. For example, climate action, the target, the 13.1 says, strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazard and natural disaster in all countries. And the goal, the target 11.5, the 11 goals sustainable cities and communities. This 11.5 emphasized reduction of the number of deaths and number of the people affected by the disaster. And also the decrease of the direct economic loss by the water-related disaster. So in this way, water is closely related to other targets and goals. I want to focus on the relationship between the climate and water-related disaster and sustainable development in my talk. So we will discuss about one question associated with climate change. Do the heavy rainfall event increase in the frequency, intensity and the amount? Yes or no? Maybe many of the participants, yeah, this is yes. And shall we consider what is climate? What is the relationship between the rainfall and the climate? Without this kind of understanding, it's very difficult to say this is yes. So this is a really complicated chart, but this is the flow chart of the global energy distribution after the sun energy reached to the earth system. If we assume the input energy from the sun is 100, almost half of the energy is absorbed by earth surface, including ocean and continent. They should be released. There are three processes for releasing this energy. One is the long wave net radiation. It's a little bit difficult, but all materials emit radiation depending on its surface temperature. So the sun, they heat up the earth surface, and then the surface is warmed up. And depending on the temperature, the earth surface emits radiation. This is long wave radiation. During the daytime, the input energy and outgoing energy may balance, but at night, no input energy, only release. So that's why under the fine condition, the relative cooling happens. But if there is some cloud, depending on the temperature at the bottom of the cloud, the downward radiation happens. So that's why it does not become cold. So we can experience this kind of cooling, or not cooling, especially in the morning of the winter season. So this happens every day. At the budget, the 18 of the 47 energy is released as the radiation emission. The other one is the sensible heat that is wind blows, and the energy of the surface is transported from the surface to the air mass. Then warm air mass is generated. And the energy is used for evaporating the liquid water to the gas phase, that is, water vapor. So this is so-called latent heat. That's why nearby surface warm air mass and wet air mass is generated. What happens next? I want to give you two questions. Please raise your hand and show your answer. Warm air mass, warm air and cool air, or dryer and wet air, which is heavier. So cool air and warm air. Those who think the cool air is heavier than warm air, please raise your hand. In the opposite way, those who think the warm air is heavier than the cool air. Majority is correct. Warm air, cool air is heavier. Next, wet air and dry air. Those who think wet air is heavier than dry air, please raise your hand. Oh, sorry. That is the answer. And the dry air is heavier. Those who think the dry air is heavier than warm air, please raise your hand. One, two, three. Only three are correct. I have already introduced the answer. Anyway, regardless of the kind of gases, the same number of molecules is included in a certain volume of gas under certain temperature and pressure. No matter of the kind of the gases, if the same temperature, pressure and volume, same number of molecules are included in. Dry air consists of nitrogen and oxygen with the ratio of 4 to 1. The weight is 28.8. And some of the molecules of nitrogen and oxygen are replaced by water, 820. That is wet air. So perfectly dry air like this, a little bit wet air, much wet air, which is heavier. Dry air or wet air? Yes, dry air is heavier. Wet air is lighter. This is very important. So that's why warm air is lighter, then it's going up and warm the atmosphere. Wet air is lighter. That's why it's going up. And after air mass temperature is lower due to the lower pressure, then water vapor, the gas phase is condensate into liquid. That is, cloud droplet is liquid. Then the huge latent heat is released and warm up the atmosphere. After that, the cloud droplet, this is liquid, meet together and become a big water droplet. This is rain droplet and it's going down. So in this way, the water transports more than half of the absorbed energy by the earth to the upper atmosphere. And then our system, earth climate is generated. This is a vertical process and horizontal process. I have to explain this process in detail, but time limitation. Anyway, atmosphere over ocean is much wet, much wetter than the atmosphere over continent. Wet air mass is transported to the over the continent and it's condensate. It is condensate into cloud and large air mass is released. And then the rainfall happens and the rain is flowed down due to the gravity into the sea. So this horizontal water cycle also works to reduce the contrast between the atmospheric temperature over continent and over ocean. Anyway, in this way the earth climate is generated. That's why the rainfall and the climate are closely related together. That's why climate changes, rainfall changes, climate changes. So then, in that case, is climate changing? This is a very big problem of the IPCC. And at the fourth report of the IPCC in 2007, I worked as a review editor of this assessment report fourth of the IPCC, Working Group 1. And we finalized our conclusion by using one sentence. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. For Japanese, the unequivocal is really difficult to understand, but we use this sentence. In 2007, assessment report fourth, six years later, the assessment report fifth was published by adding very advanced data and analysis results. But expression is just the same, you know? No change. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. So this is the result of our science community's confirmation. Then, who or what does change this climate? So assessment report fourth, in collaboration with many climate centers, we calculate the atmospheric temperature from the 1910 to 2000. By introducing observed greenhouse gas concentration into the model. And in some climate centers, just calculate the atmospheric temperature by using observed greenhouse gases in 1910 without any change. The red one is the result of the calculation with observed greenhouse gas in each year. And the blue one is the same concentration observed in 1910. So six lines of observation. So then we concluded that this is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration. This is in 2007 and 2013 by adding more advanced scientific results. The expression, it is extremely likely that this caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases concentration. That is different. In 2000, very likely. This means the more than 90% of the model has a similarity. And it is extremely likely mean more than 95% of the model shows a similar result. So this is also the result of the scientist confirmation. So this change is caused by our human being. So climate is changing. So in that case, why heavy rainfall will increase? I would introduce one, the process. As you know, the greenhouse gas effect. See, sunshine is not absorbed by atmosphere, but the long-term radiation from the earth surface is absorbed by greenhouse gases. Then the lower part of the atmosphere, the temperature, the increase. So heat up the surface and the surface, depending on the surface temperature, this long-wave radiation. And this is absorbed by greenhouse gases. That's why the lower part of the atmosphere is heated up. The temperature of the lower part of the atmosphere increases. Then, depending on the temperature, downward long-wave radiation increases as we learn, like a cloud. And you can identify the disanimation. Once again, I made the disanimation orange to red. So the surface is heated up more. Then the more warm air mass, the more wet air mass is generated. They are lighter. That's why they are lifted up easily. And if the air mass is lifted up from the surround, the air mass is concentrated. And the top of the atmosphere is capped by the stratosphere. So the air mass should go down. So then, the associated with global warming, this convection is accelerated. And the oil of the atmosphere is mixed. And not only the lower part of the temperature, but also the whole atmosphere, the temperature increases. This is global warming. So this process says radiation, convection, equilibrium. So the associated with global warming, convective system is accelerated. Then, the heavier rainfall happens in the narrower area. So this is the basis of the heavy rainfall event, the increase and the intensity increase. So based on this physics, the report in 2007, assessment report 4 and assessment report 5, in between the special report of the extreme published. This orange color from the AR4, this blue color from the slacks, and the black color, the expression from the AR5. So the heavy rainfall and drought and the tropical cyclone and high tide, the result is almost the same, consistent among the three reports. So this is also the proof of our confirmation of the scientist. So this is the statistics. The number of the disaster event, including the hydrological, meteorological, climatological, and geophysical. Geophysical event, the number does not change, but the total increases. Since the 1980, up to now, almost three times increase of the number of water-related disaster in the world. So this is the statistics. So that's why this question, answer, yes. So this is the current situation. How can we address this issue? So in 2015, in addition to the sustainable development goals, we agreed the Paris Agreement in December and send a framework from disaster risk reduction in March. At this moment, concerted action among these three requested. So we got to the climate change and the water-related disaster for contributing to the sustainable development. We need to analyze the climate model output, downscaling bias collection and quantifying the uncertainty. The output is used as an input into hydrological model and assess the change in extreme event and regime shift. But the water issue is strongly related to the environment, socio-economics and history and the culture. And then we can implement impact assessment. That information should be passed to the adaptation option. And some decision is made and it is implemented. The result of the implementation should be monitored and evaluated. One of the most important point is this uncertainty should be introduced in decision making. This kind of scientific and engineering and socio-economic approach should be integrated. That is so-called end-to-end approach on climate change adaptation. So this kind of systematic approach is required. So finally, concerted action can provide reducing the current risk and preventing the future risk and adaptation and recovery capacity. Then we can build a resilient society which can contribute to the sustainable development. For establishment of this framework, we need to improve our understanding. Not only our scientist understanding but also society understanding. We need to support the governance for the sound decision making. We need to encourage investor to appropriate investment. And then the early learning of Build Back Better should be supported by science and technology. So this kind of the framework should be established. This is my message. Thank you very much for your attention.