 Good morning. It is Wednesday the 5th of May. Hope you're doing well usual recap then of what happened on closing Wall Street last night Where we did see in the cash US equities the NASDAQ underperform Down about 1.85% Comparatively the Dow was basically flat and the S&P narrowed losses after some of that Sunning pressure that was seen earlier in the session on that point then let's start off with the S&P chart And have a look at that from a technical perspective this was the The chart that we were looking at yesterday in the community Which was as per the briefing yesterday morning a key level Over the course of the last couple of weeks has been that 41 67 marker here as defined by the the kind of pink rectangle Breakdown and price there happened and you know yesterday was so interesting the move came at the open on Wall Street So definitely the kind of ignition of the pickup in volume helping that move But technically the break we'd already broken through it we came back up to that level before then the push came on the open and Lots of people were trying to pin different things on it There was all kinds of things doing the round from speculation of military tensions between China and Taiwan New coronavirus restrictions. I saw Bloomberg even going as far as to say that Ferrari delaying their outlook on their their financial targets has a reason for the set off which you know You have to be aware that a lot of these financial news agencies are Working operating in a in a particular business where they need to put a reason on these moves, you know It's it would be unacceptable for them to be able to say, you know, it's just flow and the markets just selling off Someone's just unbinding a position. Whatever the case actually might be they need to pin it So do be aware of that. I guess that the easiest and most simplest thing is You know, just just trade what you see and don't get overly caught up too much And just trying to find a reason if the tape looks heavy Order flow is kind of indicative of a bit of momentum on the breach on the volume pickup You know, you're gonna get these speculators looking on these fast money moves to you know Push the market down then just go, you know, go with the flow or as As the late and great Bruce Lee would say, you know be like water and just adapt to the conditions And then just ride that move but do be conscious of the fact that you know from a Longevity of move perspective if there isn't any One fundamental headline that really is quite clearly driving that move Then you've got to be wary of the quite severe pullbacks coming at some point and dip buyers being confident to come back in Lift that market if it's aggressively sold particularly open And this was kind of similar to what we saw yesterday Here you can see that there's this trend line going back to the 13th of April It's been well respected through the middle of that month and yesterday It was quite choppy at the time But with that horizontal support level from the 22nd 23rd that was an area that we were eyeing the kind of ventural low Of this move just running out a bit of steam of which then we saw really aggressive bounce as European players really exited the market and the recovery really took took place all the way up into the closing wall street And then and some during the Asian session where it just moved a little higher overall Volumes overnight in Asia very quiet Obviously China and Japan still out South Korea also closed so not a lot of participants in the marketplace The other thing that was being pinned on some of the move was Janet Yellen The now Treasury Secretary and formally the the head of the Fed and she was also kind of Looked at as a potential catalyst that caused a little bit of nervousness in markets yesterday To to get you up to speed with what she said the former Fed chair mentioned that the mix Well interest rates may need to rise modestly to prevent the economy from overheating She kind of said that first and then she came back not too long after and basically said It's not something I'm predicting or recommending So she had to come out and kind of clear things up, which yeah a little bit surprising given her kind of vast experience that she has but Perhaps she kind of over or underplayed the idea of how sensitive markets are obviously to rate talk and particularly Coming from a person like herself Overall, I don't think I would read anything other than it was just another variable to the mix that just contributed Some market movement yesterday looking at different, you know kind of volatility indicators the bond market really was unmoved by a lot of this Which I think really says it all it was quite an equity centric move when it was happening as far as forex markets are concerned this morning Both major pairs are pretty flat overall. I'm just keeping an eye on euro dollar here from a technical perspective You can see as we've been on this downward trend really since going back to the end of last week Thursday Friday We've had a short-term trend line being respected through that period of of decline and that coinciding with the pivot level in the futures market and In the early buzz in Europe might be a good entry point for the short to play the move back down to the The rectangle here, which would be the previous resistance points that we saw in mid-april before the eventual break that came the 19th The market did also respect that level in yesterday morning's European session So yeah quite quite a nice entry point there and riding that move down down to the 120 handle But beyond that point you've got the s1 but then kind of deeper targets would be s2 And then the the range load that we had through the 14th to the 19th of April Elsewhere the other thing just have a quick look at was the Oil market we did see a bit of a breakout in price yesterday I just dropped this down to a five minute. You can see If I just forwarded on to here This was the the top end of yesterday's trading range The dotted line was yesterday's R2 on the daily pivots and we had a breakout as you can see here at half past nine and The rationale behind that being we had the latest API crude or inventory number Which was the biggest weekly draw since January in fact of this year. So multi-month Size drawdown and that caused that acceleration in price Last night saw a pop and we drifted higher in Asia before then we've kind of more broadly consolidated If anything here at the moment as Europe has come into the market So we'll look to the oil numbers later. Obviously usual time 3 30 It was only a UK bank holiday. Don't forget on Monday. So those data points not delayed They'll be coming out at the usual time So using those previous areas here now is downside levels of support But we're looking for the bulk of that volatility Potentially to come to see whether the API the DOEs can live up to the API drawdown that we had last night But market obviously pricing in a large portion of that for the moment Otherwise few other things just to quickly mention one was on the COVID side Biden set a target of administering at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine to 70% of adult Americans by the 4th of July As part of a new package of measures aimed at boosting vaccine take-up Biden is planning spending hundreds of millions of dollars on education outreach efforts to try and Really increase enthusiasm for the vaccines particularly those of the Ethnicities in particular who've been quite reluctant to take those vaccines the measures being taken after two weeks Declining vaccination rates that we've been seeing in the US which are largely happening expected But at the moment in terms of numbers as context They have dropped an average of 2.3 million a day from where we were tracking at 3.4 million Just the fortnight or so ago The other thing I just wanted to mention from the stocks perspective As we go into US trading hours later on today, it's probably worth noting for Boeing Very large constituent of the Dow I think they're about the seventh largest they account for around four and a half percent or so in terms of an index waiting and Reuters have got an exclusive that came out very early hours of this morning And it's basically saying that US air safety officials have asked the company to supply fresh analysis and documentation Showing numerous 737 max subsystems would not be affected by electrical grounding issues first flagged in three years of the jet in April The extra analysis injects new uncertainty of the timing when Boeing's best-selling jetliner would be cleared to fly by the FAA and basically then US airliners have said they expected buying to release service bulletins as soon as this week But this latest issue could push back that timeline and given how key obviously this Aircraft is for Boeing. It'd be interested to see how they perform in pre-market and then the eventual opening Later today. The other one is tomorrow, of course, we get the Bank of England And some of you might not be aware of this But the Times newspaper in the UK have something called the the shadow MPC And who these guys are are basically a group of nine So the same kind of number if you like to replicate the the official monetary policy committee and their former bank rate Setters so they could be former central bankers With direct experience of managing the UK economy to Treasury officials to top economists And basically they go through the same Discussion points and then have a vote to see what those very like-minded individuals Saying is the best course of action and sometimes it could be a bit of a lead then for what the Bank of England mentioned you might do They the shadow MPC they urged the bank to leave rates and QE unchanged this month So no surprises there but to prepare the market for a slowdown in weekly guilt purchases under QE And also I'd say no surprise there either So very much that is the bedded inner trepation for tomorrow. And of course will be will be covering that more detail When we get to Thursday session quit look at the schedule for today In terms of this morning, you do get the service PMI numbers coming out of the eurozone so France Germany eurozone So on but these are final readings for April. So not looking for any Meaningful market reaction to that going to the afternoon Not so much the market, but the ISM services PMI will be their main headline reading and If you remember last time this number came out it came in at 63 point seven Against the previous 55 point three was the biggest kind of uptick biggest lift We've seen in this figure ever basically as the economy continued to reopen at a fairly rapid pace in the US Respondents from that previous report Basically indicating the lifting of coronavirus pandemic related restrictions had released pent up demand for many of the respective company services and Analysts to expect that trend to basically continue today because that number is going to head even further north to sixty four point three from sixty three point seven top end of the range seen as sixty six potentially the other things We're looking out for we've got the oil infantry numbers as mentioned at three thirty and then you've also got the Quarterly refunding announcement in three tens and thirties coming up one thirty as well from the US to be aware of this coming Little bit of attention just given the fact that you know the US is bringing about an unprecedented amount of supply to finance lots of government spending is going on at the moment You've got various different bond auctions coming out in the UK and Germany this morning And the speaker's perspective all based in the afternoon with a Fed focus Feds Evans being a voter the others Rosengren Mester not voters till next year Evan speaking on Current economic conditions and monetary policy so one perhaps just keep half an eye on at the New York Stock Exchange open at two thirty ECB's Lane by taking a panel discussion Also at 3 p.m. This afternoon, so I'm gonna leave it at that. I'll let you guys get on with the day Overall my assessment is I don't feel particularly too concerned about some of the volatility yesterday I Kind of feel a little bit like the the market making a bit of a Mountain out of a molehill on the back of that set off And I think that's reflective with the aggressiveness of the bounce back in the S&P saw during the the post European exit us evening NASDAQ though remaining a little bit Underperforming as it has done over the last two sessions But I think that's largely reflective of the ongoing reopening kind of trade reflective on that rotation in terms of the sectors You know yesterday was no different really high-valued technology names Microsoft Apple Amazon these Facebook these types of companies fell anything from 2.3 to 4.2 percent Well, it's defensive consumer staples utility real estate Fell took much less less degree So I don't think anything there is is too surprising to be quite honest in terms of today I feel overall fairly neutral I just want to wait really for the for the US section to really dictate proceedings and then that ISM be keeping an eye on With also a look at the employment constituent of course heading into non farms The employment constituent in the manufacturing the beginning of the week was a little bit of a decrease from the prior reading All right guys I'll leave it at that let you guys get on and wish you a good day ahead. Thanks so much