 All right, very good morning. It is Friday 31st of May. Hope you're doing well. Quick overview then what we're going to cover. We're going to look at obviously the latest news about Trump and Mexico and that's created risk of market movement overnight and certainly it's going to be the focal point as we go into full UK and European market open. So we'll review that. We're also going to look at some Chinese data that came out overnight. Of course, it was the PMI data, Manufacturing and services and more broadly speaking, still remaining heavily in contraction for China in particular on their employment sub-constituent number. So we'll have a look at a couple of graphics to make sense of that. And then also a look at oil, some comments out of Clarida, who's the vice-chair at the Fed, which I think were quite important as well. So that's what's on the agenda. And then we'll hand over to Sam and he can look at the charts. So quick look at the general sentiment. As you can see here, we've got quite clear risk of tone to proceedings. The bund in fixed income markets has gapped up and is up about 33 ticks. You can see here, the US 10 year in the bottom right hand corner is up 13 and a half ticks with the pop, if you like, coming overnight session. If I bring up the SMP here and I start putting the SMP on a slightly shorter timeframe, you can see this is when the news came out last night and the SMP sold off immediately on the back of it. And again, we'll go into the headlines in more detail. In kind then, gold elevated and European stock futures, particularly the DAX will be an interesting one to watch. You can see here, the futures gap down, broke through yesterday's low and just coming up to the cash open in about 20 minutes. That'll definitely be one to keep an eye on. Just given the direct implications for the automakers, I believe I heard a snap this morning that there's eight EU manufacturers that operate with facilities within Mexico. And that does include VW being one. So definitely you'd expect that to weigh on the DAX, given the sector kind of profiling of that particular industry. Currency wise though, not too much reaction tends to be fairly isolated at the moment, at least, not really seeing much dollar reaction to the latest news. So the Dixie's flat and that is broadly reflected in both major pairs in euro dollar and cable. But otherwise, generally, risk of start to proceedings overnight reaction, if you like, to the headline of which came out, which was this. So let me read you through a couple of points here to surmise what's happened. President Trump vowed to impose a 5% tariff on Mexican goods until the country stops immigrants from entering the US illegally. The tariff would take effect on June 10th, quote, until such time illegal migrants coming through Mexico and into our country uppercase stop. Was what he tweeted yesterday. So, yeah, definitely something which reading between the lines here, of course, if you watched the rerun of his speech, I actually found it quite interesting. If you step away from markets for a second, you think about the political angle. You know, one of the things that's been and it's absolutely backfired for established political parties, in particular those of a more center ground trying to appease both sides of the argument. And taking Theresa May as an example, you know, sitting on the fence trying to compromise just is not cutting it at the moment with the just general electorate and listening to Trump. You know, he is a good salesman in that sense. The way he was talking it up, making America great again, obviously stopping full illegal migrants coming into Mexico by next week or so. That absolutely is never going to happen. But that doesn't matter at all. I mean, if you listen to him and the way he delivers it, I almost want to put on the manga hat. Because, you know, that's how well he spins it. But that's the point, you know, the point is all of this is a political ploy to try and garner, you know, kind of sentiment around the key issues. And remember, the two key issues for 2020 for Trump and a second term is trade and immigration. And it's those two things that are right at the epicenter of the main factors and forces moving markets at the moment. You've got trade with China. And don't forget we were looking at the stats yesterday in the briefing with Mexico, Mexico, an absolute key. That's the second biggest country of which the U.S. import goods from. And then immigration, of course, has kind of gone a bit quiet on that. But obviously it's one of the focal points of his policies. And as much as that went quiet after the government shut down on the border war funding, you can very much expect that issue to return to the table very quickly as he starts to kind of ramp things up. So, yeah, definitely this move, it dampens sentiment. The tariff man strikes again. And again, in a week where we've had concerns about the elevation and potential retaliation from China, who really have kind of changed their tone given what's been happening with the breakdown in the trade situation with the targeting of tech firms. This is just another kind of element on the global scale that's kind of dented sentiment. And so having a look here, the S&P 500, I know Sam will look at this in more detail, but there's obviously this is the longer daily continuation chart. This is the thing that we were looking at where you've got the 200 daily moving average on the red line. And then you've got that trend line as well. And we briefly, right at the beginning of the week, had a real test of that broke below it, but closed back above yesterday held above the level. But obviously there's latest development has helped bump things back down again. So technically speaking, does open up potentially a bit of clean airspace now for a pushback down. And technically 12, 37, 3 quarters. You've kind of got these previous levels here. Little choppy though, really that zone 37 to 22, I think looks like an area of stronger support. But don't forget that means we've got to move a decent 30, 40 points lower from where we are at the moment. Whether that happens today or not, I guess need yet to be seen. One thing I would say is that Americans would have been, you know, it was late in the day. The move didn't come until, you know, gone midnight, London time. So by that, what I mean is when Americans come in, they still probably need to price this in to some degree. So, you know, definitely would be mindful of that. So keeping on gold as well, of course, gold here. We're just, you know, we're coming back to the $1,300 handle again. I had a test at the R1, which is about one and a half bucks shy of the figure. And so definitely, you know, this kind of risk off trade on these latest fundamental developments, likely to fire things up a little bit in the gold market. And again, I'm sure Sam will be looking at this a bit more closely, just looking at that kind of trend line from the high of the year that was printed back in Feb, retested on the 14th of May. And that's coming in as kind of maybe a potential area to have a look at as we come up to the $1,300 psychological level. A few other things then, let's just have a look. Obviously, Mexican peso reacting immediately on the back of the latest news. The time stamp at the bottom is not London. Presumably this is, well, not sure what that actual time frame that is, but potentially local time. But moving 2.4%, I think the peso weakened on the back of this. I think this was after about a week ago that he had dropped the still tariffs, but certainly right back into the mix now. And so local assets are going to suffer. The other thing that's obviously not helping the situation for the open is the fact that this is a graphic of the Chinese manufacturing PMI data. So if you remember, one thing is here, what you have these various different coloured lines is the orange line here is the actual headline kind of composite PMI number. You can see we moved into quite deep contraction at 1.7 or 46 level before coming ramping back post the Lunar New Year holiday, but then we've fallen again to where we are kind of at the moment. So actually, this is this area here where I'm looking at the slightly lighter orange line. So again, dipped contraction, so excuse me, that is this line, contraction just below 50, we got back above it, flirted right on the level, but we've moved back into contraction is the point. The orange line at the bottom, this is new export orders. And one of the other ones that people are looking at quite closely is this is the factory employment gauge, which fell to its lowest since basically the financial crisis printing at 47. So definitely the Chinese economy still very much feeling the bite of this continuation from what really has been impacting their local economy through the last several months. So despite the recovery that we've had in Q1 in general global market sentiment and some stabilization in a few of the asset prices, one thing we have been seeing certainly over the last week or so is the yuan has continued is renewed its weakening kind of pattern, getting closer to that key threshold seven level and these kind of forward looking PMI indicators are tipping negative again and to points of which when looking at the sub components like employment as we've seen here, something that we haven't seen at levels in about 10 years. So what does that mean for general global growth concerns? Well, they have to be paired back again and this certainly has ramifications for the price of crude oil. Now it's been May, the month of May it being the 31st looks set to be the worst month for WTI crude since November. Having a look here, you can see really the market when it came raging back and the Fed came in to save the day, altered their communication to become dovish, the various different fiscal intervention on behalf of China, both government and central bank level created that really strong about turn and we had decent four months of persistent gains in crude but you can see here that the WTI monthly price change down heavily from what we've printed over the last couple of months and looking at the crude chart on a daily continuation, crude acts really nicely when it starts breaking some of these longer standing technical points of significance on the way up it was exactly the same playing round figures, the fibrid tracement of the sell-off in Q4 and also some of the previous price action and you can see here when the market really plummeted back on the 23rd of May consolidated exactly where we did before the breach of the technical levels I mean these levels here are not put on this morning, they've remained the case and you can see how the market kind of quick fire falls back down to the next point of significance and certainly we're in that test of that zone at the moment around that 55-75 that was the initial you can see here resistance the 38% fib of that Q4 sell-off acted as the support and platform then for the push that we saw in February-March and now consequently turns to a key area of support here where we're trading at the moment but as you can see going through May you know quite a sharp depreciation that we've had as the whole global growth concerns return and the trade war globally starts to sour as Trump starts to kind of up the up the ante as he goes into kind of full political kind of run into the election phase one thing that I think is important is this this was a comment out of this chap Richard Clarida who's the vice chair of the Fed and he said that the Federal Reserve could cut rates if the outlook takes an unexpected turn for the worse as he vowed to be nimble in ensuring the US expansion continues now if I was Donald Trump this is absolute music to my ears because it means then that basically I'm getting what I want which is I can play hardball and if the markets do respond negatively enough well the Fed are here quite clearly committing that they're going to step in and do what's necessary to continue the expansion of the economy IE not just hold interest rates as the current dot plot would suggest they're going to cut and that's definitely what the markets are pricing towards the end of the year and certainly that gives I think Trump wiggle room to be quite aggressive in his tone on this trade side because he's got the ultimate get out of jail free card which would be the Fed to help prop the market up and let's not forget Trump can then change the tone cut a deal not aggressive as complete complete stop on illegal immigration but he gets a little bit more border wall funding perhaps to appease then Congress to stop what he's doing and then net net he gains a concession and it's a political win and the markets then respond as he comes off the gas so to speak yeah I still you know I don't think more broadly speaking that although everything I've talked about in this briefing is quite negative even though I feel like the market does need to come back a little further particularly in the equity space I don't think this is the beginning of the end I actually think this is just part of the phase of a correction of which undoubtedly will turn obviously it's the timing which is key and I think Sam's going to look at some longer timeframes on say the equity markets of where could be quite interesting on those pullbacks but the point being is that from a fundamental narrative the powers that be let's say I Trump he knows what he's doing and he knows what he needs to achieve on a specific timeframe of which we as market participants are fully aware of is the point all right quickly the calendar what have we got now we've had the Chinese data of course come out so I wouldn't worry about German retail sales numbers that's really insignificant on a regular basis the German state CPI's will be coming out momentarily obviously as per usual these are littered throughout the morning could be quite interesting to keep an eye on I think remember last month I think they did jump up from their prior month and that did lead to some slight short-term appreciation in the euro at the time Italian GDP final readings so not to be I mean Italy in focus yes both politically yes has been in technical recessions so GDP quite interesting but these are final reading so shouldn't be anything too surprising going further forward mortgage approvals again not really a market move for sterling so I wouldn't worry about that as far as I'd say sterling risk around political developments on brexit I'd kind of classify those as very relatively limited at this point because where we're at at the moment is that really there's a bigger much more dominating macro theme which is the trade developments that we've discussed but also the fact that the timeline has kind of been drawn out now for this leadership process to take place going into the afternoon we get us personal income we've got core PCE data Canadian GDP Chicago PMI which is always quite interesting coming out to states University of Michigan but that's a final reading and then Baker Hughes recount for any of the oil traders speaker wise feds Bostick and feds Williams the latter of which is a voter and there will be prepared text it looks like and is speaking on monetary policy theories it could be quite an interesting one to look at typically Williams having a more hawkish stance on policy so yeah overall again I think it would be the European morning largely derived from the fallout of what's happened from overnight nothing too much here from a scheduled point of view on that basis it's definitely more of a probably US centric session once again with data but also how does the US stock market react to what we've had particularly with some of these levels that we looked at and the spools being taken out already how does the US react when they come in I think will be important for how the week finishes alright that is it for me I'll wish you a good day ahead and a good weekend thanks very much morning guys hope everyone is doing well and had a good week so far coming into last day of the month and week it will be interesting to see where some of these charts end up of course on the longer time frames I think worth talking starting I should say with the S&P let's put this on a longer time frame I mean you can see the move from last night keeping an eye on those lows just now especially with decks about to kick on in five minutes to keep an eye on exactly what happens around there on the longer time frame you can see here and it's got the 200 day moving average absolutely would be looking at that as well and seeing where we close the week and the month as mentioned you've also got the 27-22 area 37 as well that 15 point zone I think it's a pretty key one from a technical point of view I like the look of it as a place to get long I mean I do think Trump knows exactly what he's doing so the safest bet here may well be to just wait for a game-changing comment technical push higher and get in and hold your breath but looking here you've also got the fib from last year's low to this year's high comes in around there the 0.382 just below 27-22 as well you've got trend line from the previous all-time high that goes through that sort of area you can see here second third test breakthrough was in March and then that will come in in the mix there as well so 8 for March low 0.382 fib trend line from previous all-time high not a bad level technically to get in but of course if there's further developments like there were last night the technical levels aren't going to hold too firm but it's certainly something to keep an eye on maybe like Anthony saying not today but over the coming days or weeks as well but with the with the equities on their lows at the moment we're keeping an eye on the DAX of course to see how that does react looking at the Euro relatively quiet all week to be honest I mean the ranges of these moves have been very small especially from the London trading hours from a range perspective R1 and those highs looks okay I'll just be always slightly careful in these ones just to see how it gets to R1 so right now as it stands yes stays high and R1 really good resistance level risk reward looks good I'll just be keeping an eye how we react to this potential trend line if it finds resistance comes back down but then really pushes on very quickly well that would be the key that I don't necessarily want to get in this trade also above where we're trading around the R2 you've got some nice highs as well previously quite a lot of resistance nice resistance above where we're trading of course this market we just zoom to the left hand side and you can see this is the last Thursday's reaction on that multi-year low we're keeping an eye on that obviously into the close of the week if we were to have some strong dollar a strong dollar I should say today and break below that and close would be pretty key something to focus on again as we go to the back end of the session the pound having a look here it's all about for me anyway the longer term picture here if we just remove the pivots just to clean things up a bit you can see that 126 hand on the futures that we've been talking about the trend line from 2017 low that we had back in January and it's just hiding behind my camera at the moment so I just put that on you can see that's just been tested a little false break out of that also got the low that we had back on the 11th of December to key level key area where we close the week will be important but like with equities a fundamental development and that could be who's getting there in the hot seat at number 10 we could be absolutely key for deciding where this market goes rather than a technical level support but all things considered it's a good one right now that I would have marked up the yen yesterday well yesterday morning we had that break didn't we of the trend line which was a really good opportunity if you were trading at those hours of course with everything that happened yesterday equities while they recovered in the morning and into the back end of the session you can see the exact same well the opposite here move we then pushed back above and we're now trading on the highest we've been for quite some time but just be aware of these this area this is now 480 chart you can see not far from the high that we had back on the 13th and you also got potential trend line from starting on the 24th of March just above there so quite a key level to keep an eye on just above where we're trading here again on the yen against the dollar another save haven market to focus on obviously the yen being one of those but gold really did push push on as well quite again a bit of resistance above where we're trading you know noticeably just above where here you've got the 1300 handle for you know one there's some decent resistance we've just gone through what was the low of the 15th as well so along with those trend lines that from the previous highs do any of those come in around this area yes you can see you've got a potential one here that starts on the 25th to the 13th of this month we're keeping a cosine that definitely into the back end of the week I've said it all week as well with with gold it is a tricky market at the moment to really call the direction every time you think it's coming down you get that failed test and you know is it are we now trying to extend through I think maybe a break of this trend line could be that key to get us going in the right direction if you're a gold ball of course but as mentioned effect because he's do find support we could see a bit of a push iron of course with Clarida's comments overnight bit of dollar weakness may have well impacted that move is well and gold late yesterday having a look at at oil obviously a decent move yesterday to the downside and that's continued to an extent this morning already down 78 ticks from the open be keeping an eye on starting on the you have to wait for me to find the exact there we go low the fifth I've got written down a trend line from that not an ellipse just keeping an eye on this trend line that you can see we broke through if I get it right there you go we broke through yesterday evening you want a line in the sand for you know what can this market maybe turn into a day or you've got one there keeping an eye you can see that second test just above my camera now just above it there on the 23rd really good support yesterday before that overnight break through we came back to retest it really nice level you've got $56 on the futures just above there as well but it's keeping an eye that could be your your cue to maybe get out short if you're still really holding the position but really nice line in the sand for the travers to keep an eye on and of course those longer term levels that and talked about you know if we can you know keep pushing down you know where could be the the level where we start to find support in just purely from a support resistance point you have $55 12 which would I know be interesting to some people the $52 $59 you can see all these lows from here that certainly you know be a place where people might attempt to get in but you know things probably do have to change certainly with the equity markets for there to be a full on recovery of course these markets very correlated at the moment as well as usual any questions do do let us know have a quick look over at the DAX before just wrapping up just to see how it's opening with that increase in volume we can see just over the last few minutes is breaking that low there so keeping an eye then on US equities as well around those lows the NASDAQ down the S&P looking very identical if they were to break we see the idea of a big push lower to 27-22 40 point move you never know you never know but I hope you all have a good trading day and a great weekend from everyone at the amplifier team