 We have Tim Ord on Tim, can you hear me? Yep, I sure can. How are you doing today? Good. Thanks for having me on. Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for joining us. What a trend reversal that's going on, at least in the markets. I'm really interested to see what you have to say about all of this and what your analysis is. That's it. Yeah, there's a couple of things. I think the first thing out of cover is that chart number six I sent you. Yeah, let's take a look. Yeah, I was just kind of skipping over some stuff, but actually, I've been out long here. I thought we'd find support around that 445 area on the SPYs. I had some actually kind of panic signals, but we actually fell through that. We're actually getting down to the early July lows. And if you notice, I circled in blue on the volume chart of what that low is tested. We're testing that low right now. Days not over, but that low is around 80 million shares, give or take. Looks like about July 3 or 4 is somewhere in that time frame. And usually previous lows, previous highs are between which way you're going. It was in this particular case, since we're going down, the previous lows are support. And it depends how you test the previous lows. If you test them on a least 10% lighter volume, that test is going to find support. But if you get pretty much equal volume or higher than the previous low, then a lot of times, a market still can bounce, and normally, it'll break through those lows. Because volume is kind of like energy, really. More volume, you've got the more energy it is. So as we're putting this update on, we're testing that low right now. So it will hold, I don't know. This is Oxygen Exploration Week, which normally has a bullish bias. And this week, obviously, if not, it's been pretty much straight down all the last three days. Count today will be a third day down. So if volume does come in, say, around 72 million shares today, or 73, we'll probably find. We'll probably see it bounce. But once you pass below some previous highs, we have some previous highs up around that 445 area. And you pass through those highs, and now you're testing those previous lows. So some sort of a worthwhile top is in. And I thought at one point, we might go down to 442, which is about another 5% to 7% lower over the next several weeks. And this chart's starting to kind of look like that. Because even though we did get panic in it, we're not bouncing. And so what that tells me, we're going to need more panic before a bounce does occur. So if it blows past this level here from July 4th or 5th, I mean, we have quite a bit more ways to go down until we see a bounce. How are you looking at that? Well, actually, it depends on today. Since we're testing those previous lows, if volume comes in, say, 72 million shares, that vicinity, we're probably going to bounce first up to around 4400 or 444 on the SPYs. And it can create a right shoulder, probably up ahead in shoulders, a top pattern. That's what I'm thinking. It could be forming here. It depends how the clothes goes. It looks like right now. It doesn't look like it's going to be much of a bounce. And the volume's kind of taken away here. We're close to 60 million shares already. So volume, to me, is at this stage, even though we've got about over a half hour to go, probably volume's going to be higher. So I'll have to get out of my long position, kind of regroup, and figure out my next signal. If the market does bounce, do I go short? Or if it's unclear, just stay on the sidelines until it does become clear. So it's kind of, August, if you're five months up in a row, normally the six months down. So we're five months up going into this month. So this month is going to be a down month. How big of a down month, I don't know. But if expiration week bounces, which doesn't appear or will be, normally the week after is down pretty big. Now, since this week is not even bouncing, I don't know what next week could be. So we'll kind of have to wait and see. But in a bigger scheme of things, I think this is not a major high. This is a correction and an uptrend. So this is not like the end of the world here. But some sort of a pretty decent low at much lower levels than we are right now, probably back down to 442 on the SPYs, where the market could go before this bottom is found. That could happen later this month or even in September. I see. So we'll have to kind of wait and see. But we'll probably do for a bounce, but there'll be a bounce in the downtrend. So we can go on a couple other charts. Absolutely. That's still fascinating stuff. And then Tim, we're about to go to break, but stay with us through it because, you know, anytime you come on, you have great information. I'm interested to see what you have stored for us in the other charts. All right? Right, sounds good. Right on. Okay, folks, we'll be right back with Tim Ord. Stay tuned. Welcome back, folks. This is Jacob. We are with Tim Ord. Tim, what are we looking at here on chart one? This is the equity put call ratio index. Yeah, the bottom window is the five day average of the equity put call ratio readings. And so it's a five day average, not a single day. And yesterday we closed at 1.03, which is pretty high. Everybody really jumped on the puts yesterday. On the five day, if you get around 0.8, which we closed yesterday there, this chart goes back to about mid-2014. And I, with red lines, I notify those times every time that ratio, book call ratio got down to a 0.8 or higher. And so we hit it yesterday. And so even though we're down a little bit today, we're probably in close to some sort of a low Lisa sideways consolation. I don't think there's clients over on the SMPs, but I think it's probably due for a bounce in here. It's take some of this put players off market. You get too many people on one side of the market. Everybody buying puts, you usually go to the opposite. Of course, yeah. And so that's kind of what's going on here. Especially this indicator actually has quite a bit of importance during option expiration week. There's kind of high fliers, you know, there's a lot of gunslingers, I guess you might say, kind of lean on the puts or the calls during expiration week. And this is one of them they're kind of leaning on right now. So I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow would be an update. We'll have to wait and see. But this area is starting to look like at least a short-term bounce, at least a consolidation that may last a week or so, but not long-term. Let's flip to chart number two. So the equity put call ratio readings are, it's kind of a similar indicator, kind of tells you where you are. And chart number two, Marty's Wagg come up with this. He's passed away, but he come up with a lot of type of different indicators. And he was really a master trader back in his day. And the bottom window is a 10-day average of the advanced issues divided by total issues. And his indicator, when it got below 0.4 and rallied to 0.6, which is the bottom window. That's what the indicators, but does it within 10 days is to sign a strength. And that's what you wanna see coming off of a major low. You gotta have a lot of weakness going into a bottom. And right after the bottom, you gotta have a sign of strength. And I didn't circle those time of strength in there, but there's a couple of men there. That's why it kept me bullish all the way into the top back in July, I got out in July. And, but now we're back down to 0.4. The yesterday's reading was 0.37, which was the day before readings. And yesterday's reading was 0.4. So we're right in that vicinity that the market's pretty oversold. And you put that with the five-day average of the equity-pulled-call ratio readings. You got two main people on one side of the fence here. And so, and you're also running into the lows of early July. So it wouldn't be surprising to get some sort of bounce into next week than from there. Then from there, I think we could possibly relieve some of the negativity here and the market could possibly resume down again. So, but yes, there's a couple of different in-cares I'm looking at. And I do have another in there. I sent you chart number three. Yes. And this is what I kind of do. I thought it was gonna, that the shaded tan areas are gaps, open gaps. And I thought we'd find support of that gap area. One from the mid-July, where I have open gap where we filled it. And I thought we'd find that and the reason why we had quite a bit of panic. Panics, you got, the form of bottom, you have to have panic. And there's a bunch of different reasons or a bunch of different indicators to identify panic. And I use the ticks and trend. Usually you get a trend reading above 1.25 and it's down to green, below minus 200 the same day. Majority of the time, you're going into a panic of some sort, especially if you get to them in a row. We actually got three over about a five day period here. And it didn't seem to stop the market, which kind of surprised me a little bit. So, and that's the reason why I kind of was long here because I see panic and the ticks and trend and going in opposite expiration week. To me, it looked like that expiration week would be an up week. And I'd go for the rally then and look to get short again. Well, I'm stuck long here. So I got to figure out if we are going to start bouncing right here or not. But normally those ticks and trend readings, when you do get a bullish combination of that, you're within a day of a, you usually happen the same days of readings to as late as two days later. Well, we'll pass two days later on all three of them. So at the moment, they're pushing up the 10 day average of the trend to bullish levels, but we're not there yet. We're only in 1.12 on the 10 day. It needs to be up to around 1.2 or higher. So it's getting there. It's kind of one of the reasons why I don't think this is going to be a big decline of any consequences. It's going to be a decent pullback, but it's not going to be a 10% or down or a 15% or down. It's probably, you know, six or 7% from the highs, which is decent, but... But not, you know, in the world scenario. Pardon? I said, but not like in, you know, end of the world scenario with it. No, it's not, as a matter of fact, when you start hearing Aaron, you know, it's narrowed the world on the radio and stuff like that. Chances are you're looking at a major bottom. Right, right, right, right. Because it's all mostly indicators will be pushed to extreme and we're not there. We're kind of, you know, from what I'm hearing on the stuff I'm hearing, they're kind of just almost ignoring the market right now, like no big deal. But once it gets back in the news, you're probably starting to see where a bottom is starting to form. So, it's kind of a declining mark, you know, corrections in an uptrend are really kind of hard because indicators get kind of fluffy. They, you know, when you're doing your buy indicators start failing and you know you're in at least a sideways market or down market. And because of these, you know, trend and tick readings over the last couple of weeks started to fail here. Or no, we're not making a bottom. What that tells me, these 10 and trick readings would get a lot higher over the next, probably several weeks. Where a bottom may come in and say, getting 1.2 on the trend and an uptrend, that's where a bottom forms. You know, we may reach two, maybe two and a half, even three on the trend before the next low will form. That's probably what's coming at us. You know, see down tick readings, instead two or three or maybe 400 on the close, you may see minus five, six, seven, 800 on the close. So that's probably what's in front of us. So the market was kind of probably blow out pretty big. And that'll be the time to really look for a major low. And that's seen what happened, you know, I think it was last year, or was it 2022? You know, the trend and tick were just totally blowing out. And I was buying all that low. I was in, and that got pretty close to the low. But you know, I was a single guy out there. Sure. It seemed like taking the orders because nobody else was buying. Right, right, Tim, we have another break. But if you want to, we'd love if you could stay for the next one. You can go through the rest of the charts here. Really fascinating stuff you're talking about. Awesome. Folks, stay tuned. We're gonna wrap up here with Tim Ord on the next segment. Really fascinating stuff you're just tuning in. But stay right there and we'll be right back. Welcome back, folks. This is Jacob. We are with Tim Ord. Tim, are you there? Yep, I'm here. Wonderful, wonderful, all right. Let's crack into, we can keep going to chart three or chart four or five. Yeah, go to chart four. Wonderful. Okay, yeah, right on. All right, so the bottom window is the 50-day average of up-down volume percent for the GDX. And every time it's got down below minus 20, the chart goes back to 2011, or 2011, every time it got down below minus 20, the market clips sideways. And even though the market kind of went up and down, up and down, the sideways pattern sometimes lasted several weeks, even in a couple of cases, several months, what I really wanna point out on here, every time it went down below minus 20, it always went back above zero at some point. Right. But over the next couple of months or something like that or whatever. So it never went minus 20 and went back down minus 20, again, it always went from minus 20, put sideways, it always went above zero. Right. So at some point, we're gonna, and this has happened one to seven times, yeah, five, no, eight times, or seven times, seven previous times, and all seven previous times, it went above, it goes above zero. When it closes above zero, that's when the uptrend starts on GDX. So at some point, an uptrend's gonna start on a close above zero on GDX. You know, right now, that indicates minus seven. So it's been minus seven in that range, probably for the last couple, three weeks. And then GDX has kind of gone sideways to down in that timeframe. So it's actually, it's making lower lows, but this indicator is making much higher lows, even though when minus 20 was hit back in mid June, GDX a little bit lower, but this indicator is showing a positive divergence. It's went from minus 20 to minus seven. But to say that the impulse wave of GDX starts is when this indicator closes above zero. So, and we know it's coming, we just don't know when. Can it set here another week or two and decay a little bit more on GDX possibly. But once it does give above zero, usually those are all the shaded blue areas. Yes. Sometimes they last just a couple of weeks, sometimes they last several months. So I don't know how long this one will last, but the rally is still in front of us, but it hasn't started yet until we get above zero. And we can look at our shorter term chart on chart number five. We have it right here. See what? I said we have it right here. Okay, okay, chart number five. And this, okay, the bottom window is the, actually is advanced decline percent, but it's an 18 day average. And next higher window is the up-down volume, but with an 18 day average. And what I'm trying to show here, the first box to have a outlined in red back in May, of March of this year. And what I wanted to show is both those indicators at the bottom two indicators, they made higher lows as GDX made lower lows and be going to the top. So the red area is when both the indicators are below minus 10, the blue area is when it's above minus 10. So when both the indicators are above minus 10, the market's in an up trend. So anyhow, you rallied out of the may low, had a positive divergence, turn blue, went up to the highs and see what date that is. It's for the May high or the April highs, indicator GDX made higher highs and both indicators made lower highs and closed below minus 10, then you had a downtrend. And you got back in here early July, gave a buy and kind of actually gave a sell here on that first part of August. And it's still on itself, because both those indicators are below minus 10. So both those indicators, even though you got a positive divergence, GDX is making lower lows, both those indicators are making higher lows, but you need to close on both these indicators above minus 10, which will signal before the 50 day average because this is only an 18 day average and I'll probably give you a heads up that the rally is starting, but we need to close above minus 10 on both those indicators. So when will that happen? Don't know. So just whenever it starts to turn up, could be another few days, could be another actually, maybe a couple of weeks or so. Don't know. Usually, September, October is seasonally wise is a bully for golden bull stocks. And so we're not really a long ways from that. You know, a couple of weeks or so, and we'll be there. So it could be first part of September. Don't know, but as long as both those indicators remain above minus 10, the uptrend should continue. So how long those two indicators will be above? I don't know. Could be a couple of months, could be a couple of weeks. It depends on what GDX wants to do. So this is a little bit different. I've kind of figured out these types of indicators I don't know, about a couple of years ago. And I've kind of been honing in on them, working on them. And they really work well, but they give decent buy and sell signals. But right now, the 50 day average and the 18 day averages of these indicators at the moment are still on sell signals. But they're giving positive divergence though. Do you see any, you know, China's having some issues with their economy and that area of Asia is a massive consumer of gold worldwide. Even just like, you know, on a simple, you know, citizen basis, right? With the issues that they're having their economy and kind of decreased spending that they're seeing over there. Do you see a longer term kind of, you know, maybe price down trend with gold because of that? Or do you have any thoughts regarding that? Well, as far as gold, I think it's actually it's still going to keep going up. And gold's way outperformed the gold stocks. If you look at the XAU to gold ratio, you know, the gold ratio has been hovering around this range for a low range for a number of years. And, you know, for some reason people are not coming back. They're coming into gold, but they're not coming back into the gold stock. So, and gold stocks has always been sickle. They run up and they run back down. And I don't know how to, you know, what China's got to do with it right now, but there doesn't seem to be a bit other than a trade that may last two, three, four months. And the gold stocks, you know, the uptrend on a bigger timeframe, I don't think it started yet. And I don't know when, where we had a big rally, you know, in 2000 all the way into 2011, gold stock went through the roof. A lot of stocks were in the penny stocks that turned into, you know, $20, $30 stocks. I think at some point that's going to happen again. And we may be in the process of building that base where that base may start. I can't say when that will happen, but I think it's still in front of us. Wonderful. Well, Tim, thank you so much for joining us today. That was, that whole thing was great. And folks, we'll have these charts in the den if you're not in there yet, you should get in it. Tim, thank you so much for joining us today. All right, thank you for having me. Okay, take care now.