 Very good morning Anthony here Friday 10th of January a non-farm payrolls day, of course So first up reminder if you have not already done so remember to subscribe to the channel Click the Bell Icon to turn on your notifications because Sam and our head of trading peers will be covering non-farm payrolls live That'll be from one o'clock London time So they'll do I can preview for a good 20 minutes and then I'll be covering the actual release live when it comes out So it'd be a good session to see how they analyze and trade things in in real time Otherwise for me, what am I going to talk about in the briefing today? Well, I've been an update of course on the Iran has actually been some further missile strikes from yesterday Not that anyone's talking about it because it's almost as if following the Trump de-escalation type speech This is kind of just taken a quite a backseat now in terms of where we were just a couple of days ago But some updates for you nonetheless on that front also going to talk a little bit about Trump and China Boris and Brexit and then the build-up for non-farm payrolls. So that's what's on the agenda I am also going to introduce to you as well one of the other members of the amplified team So Alex is going to come on as well, and he's going to have a quick word About the Dixie with some technical Levels of which he's been looking out on a longer time frame Which I think are definitely worth bearing in mind because we're at quite a critical point Which he'll explain in more detail. So looking at the charts from overall sentiment point of view this morning I mean as you can see it's really dead this morning And that is quite normal behavior ahead of the US employment report as I've normally say with the NFP print although it is a Kind of a top-level figure which undoubtedly does cause intraday short-term volatility. How important is payrolls? Well, I mean this is a difference between looking intraday or looking a little bit more from a top-level point of view I think payrolls largely is fairly insignificant today as far as any Long-term reaction is concerned because it ultimately doesn't really in my mind carry any potential really to change the needle for the FMC's Outlook for the future, but Beyond that we've have got to go with what we see and we get that normal kind of calm before the Volatility so to speak and so currency pairs are pretty flat gold just hugging pivot You can see in the futures in the top right hand corner and index futures relatively flat mildly positive a couple of the airliners actually outperforming in London Ryan air this morning opening up about 9% not very often you hear about a profit upgrade Not a downgrade And in sympathy then people like easy jet up about 6% and perhaps as well I'm not sure whether technically this is the case, but the read across there was some developments, of course about And this will lead us into the first story, which is that that Boeing jet which of course We didn't have much clarity a few days ago when that jet got shot down and killed all those passengers on board It was a Boeing 737 aircraft and obviously a few fears there for the company commercially Because if it were a technical failure that'd be another catastrophic episode for the company in terms of its manufacturing capability But it has been confirmed by the prime ministers of Canada the UK and Australia That the Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed on Wednesday near Tehran Tehran in Iran was probably brought down by Iranian missile Now why is the market not reacted to this? Well, I mean come on everyone knew that was the case So it's the least surprising news. You've probably heard but for Boeing shares It really is a bit of a sigh of relief and in yesterday's Wall Street session Boeing shares were up north of 3% at one point and remember We're at all-time highs in these u.s. Stocks at the moment and Boeing being 8% of the Dow as the largest component within that index So just another reason for why equities are just being you know edging up around also this this theme of de-escalation And this hope of a trade deal being signed next week However as per what we've kind of seen this morning two Surfaced air missile launches were detected from Iran. This was about the crash But overnight reports indicated that the rocket a rocket excuse me struck nearby the ballad air base in Iraq Where us troops were stationed but once again, I believe that there has been reports of no casualties So this is the the headlines in American military press that no direct hits So again, it's one of these kind of I think wills describing this yesterday And I guess it's a good way to to word it. It's kind of these face-saving moves to show Some kind of strength of hand and once again though It's a pretty inconsequential move from Iran and so markets have really taken it in its stride at this point A few other things I wanted to share with you on the Iranian situation. This was a good graphic And if you wanted to look at it in more detail You can see my Twitter handle below that I did tweet it yesterday it was from CNBC and It basically looks at all the different situations of past US Iranian tensions and how over Past the initial knee-jerk reaction hardly any of them have managed to have a Sustained long-term impact on the S&P 500. So here you're looking at 2019. You remember you had the Iranian Reports of shooting down that US drone over the Strait of Hamoos You then have the Gulf of Amman oil tanker incident in May of last year. All of those saw initial negative implications for the S&P on fears of Escalation within the region and consequently contagion in the Middle East However within one month that had been recovered within three months were already up one two percent within six months We're already up north of seven eight percent But that's not a unfamiliar pattern because there has been I guess the one was in 2008 But beyond that we have seen similar types things happen before and this goes all the way back to what we were talking about On the initial strike on Tuesday that yes This is a flare-up short-term and the price needs to reflect that supply kind of shock potential or escalation in terms of military conflict, but reality bites and then rationale returns and The the likelihood of both of these nations going into full-on engagement is incredibly unlikely And so this has been seen before this is the historical precedence And this is where the perception of the market lays today because this is being reflected on the prices Given how much we've reversed a lot of these moves gold obviously well off those highs that we were seeing when it was Rocketing higher just a few sessions ago other things well Republican support his strategy a latest Reuters Ipsos Maury poll shows that Republicans are loving what Trump's doing even though his pledge in 2016 You remember in the campaigning when he was going up against Clinton was look We need to withdraw out of the Middle East and bring our boys home. He's doing the opposite He sent extra troops in since the killing of Salamani But that's beside the point of course because people are liking me the general rhetoric Constraint of hand that Trump has been showing with his handling of Iran and that particular region is paying dividends So if anything Trump has coming out of this in in a fairly positive fashion from a Political point of view obviously those of a different disposition the Democrats are highly critical of what he's done But from a core Republican base that he's trying to appeal to they have liked his Tactics so far and the equity market resides up and around these highs That does though bring a point bring around excuse me a very interesting point Which I think warrants discussion right now because I think it's going to be a big talking point for Monday And that is that come Monday. I think Iran becomes In it's not even a consideration not unless there is a surprise Unexpected event that develops over the weekend Why because this trade deal is supposed to be signed on Wednesday, but the Chinese envoy Led by the vice premier and his team will land in Washington on Monday. So for me stock markets at record high Trump is is is hitting the right notes with the people that matter as far as then this electoral kind of campaign Do we fall into this again? And this is a very familiar graphic, of course Which we've shared many times and it feels like we are pretty much where that red Kind of mark is here on this this cycle market has rallied on temporary news The idea is notion of phase one being concluded. I just feel if I was Donald Trump Why you know perhaps I've bought myself a little bit of room here where I could just have a little bit of a stalemate Let's just say here Reuters this morning Interestingly, US Donald Trump who announced last month the phase one trade deal with China would be signed on the 15th has said last night The agreement could be signed actually shortly thereafter the 15th. So already in my mind the goalposts are starting to move and so This is a bit problematic I feel for where prices are trading at the moment because people have priced in the conclusion and What I mean by this is the deal to be signed but what I'm saying is is Trump and I don't think it would be a bad move for him to say look I don't really like the deal at the moment and Quite frankly if unless you're gonna send G I'm not interested in talking to the number two and therefore markets correct perhaps a few percentage points But look we're up north of 30% in the last 12 months And so he's got room to maneuver and all of this of course is about prolonging The sustainment of this USXE market a small pullback only to see it rise again To then move us in to the second phase which he needs to prolong out through the next several months I think is an appropriate strategy. So what I'm saying here is I think Things from a macro perspective net next week take a distinct Reversion back to the mean which is the trade war unless something Unexpectedly develops with Iran over the weekend Moving on let's let's get to another subject Brexit not really too much for me to add here Just more of an update really members of Parliament voted 330 to 231 in favor of the withdrawal agreement bill yesterday. So Boris on track as per expectations the formality as we head into the 31st deadline However, we did see this Michelle Barney a chief negotiator on obviously the EU side warned yesterday That Brussels will not budge on its demand that Britain stay in line with the EU restrictions on state aid and its regulatory Standards in exchange for a far-reaching trade deal What's quite interesting here is you remember a lot of these pro Brexiteers were suggesting more look We're gonna broker this amazing deal with America and they're gonna give us this great Fantastic and immediate trade deal. However, one of the big things here and there were some interesting comments out of the UK agricultural minister yesterday and This is a bit of a problem because the food standards Specifically are very different between the US and Europe now. You can't have One without being to the disbenefit of the other now what Europe is saying Which ultimately would be more of a key strategic relationship with Britain given its geographic location well America have Chlorinated chicken and growth hormone beef both of which would fall short of the eurozone standards then of food hygiene and standards so ultimately Already, this is just one thing. They're at an impasse. So is this to be Is this a surprise absolutely not I don't think so is Boris Bothered at this point. Well, I don't think so I think this is he is gonna dig his heels in and he's gonna drag this out Keeping and he needs to the threat of no deal on the table Which does mean that I do think still that the likelihood of That June extension is gonna be the next real key milestone in this this this brexit development That's when the pressure will be on the Europe buckle to his demands or does Boris have to then start asking for this This extension beyond 2020. All right, non-farm payrolls quick word. What are we expecting? headline figure today for non farms is expected at a hundred and sixty thousand and actually is pretty much bang on the long-term average so Interestingly the range though is pretty wide the most pessimistic estimate on the street is 54,000 the most bullish estimate is 221,000 so if you think about that distribution of the of the spread it is phenomenally wide But as far as I'm aware 54 is a bit of an outlier as much as those estimates are concerned now a couple things to be aware of here This is a quick look at what some of the bigger banks are anticipating Not that I put too much consideration to this But as you can see all of the primary dealers are pretty clustered within a much more reasonable range That being MS at 210 down to JP Morgan at 125 and the reason why you get estimates just from a Awareness point of view of 54 54 will probably be like an independent small research firm Who basically wants to deviate from the norm to create some headline noise so it gets more coverage for its research? That's often what you see when you get these kind of outline numbers But the big boys are all going for I would say a more realistic range of 125 to 2 to 10 now People can and will be quite optimistic about the headline figure perhaps for a couple of different reasons for one This is ADP ADP came out earlier this week of course at 202,000 that was the greatest reading that we've seen of jobs in a private sector since April When we printed at 255 202,000 was way above expectations of 160 as well so ADP Which is often seen as a as a good precursor of the the National Employment Report was Strong and was subject to an upward revision from the previous remember the previous was around 60 was Upgraded by double to 124 so particularly strong other bullish things to be aware of here a couple of analysts That I've been speaking to have been noting that Unusually warm temperatures across the US through the month of December could be actually a beneficial factor for the employment situation In addition as well. This is going to be one of the first times We're actually going to get a relatively clear idea about the job situation in America if I go back to Here and let's get newest non-farm payrolls We have seen some fluctuation, but you remember 266 last time was a monster number But that was somewhat impacted by the return of striking General Motors workers This time should be a bit again of a reversion back to the trend and that's why analysts are looking for 160 on the bearish side Analyst at JP Morgan have said that what would be one of the weakest months for job growth? They anticipate potential softness due to seasonal issues related to the late timing of Thanksgiving this year in 2019 or last year in 2019 Okay, look that is it. I'm not going to talk anymore what I am going to do though Let me just transition something on my screens. I'm going to ask Alex to come over first before he then hands over to Sam's talk over the charts a bit more. So Alex here is your Dixie chart. Thanks, Anthony Hi, everyone Hi So was looking through The charts last night. I don't focus too much on the Dixie usually but this is quite interesting from From a longer term perspective. We need to do this again So a bullish setup on the dollar index just joining up the loads from from here like this there was From this trend from this trend line support There's this morning star formation on a weekly time frame. So a weekly time frame is Is a huge time frame can see that back in Back in mid-June, we had the same setup that morning star candle formation We got big bearish candle followed by the sort of the doji or the spinning top candle followed by bullish engulfing and then that led that was the that was a turning point where Where the rotation happened back to the upside and again this happened in January Where the same setup, you know, we come down a bit of a hammer candle And then the bullish engulfing which was a rotation back to the upside and exactly the same things happen here but if anything this one stronger because we've got this established trend line which we tested and Huge hammer candle, which was the close of last week Now we've got this bullish engulfing candle, which if we close like that, which it's looking like today Would indicate that it's likely that the rotation is going to happen back to the upside if we draw trend line across there there's actually But on a break above that would be even more confirmation. I think Looking for target wise can see that this there's another fact trend line across the top here that was tested back in late September, which was the top resistance up here. So target wise There's this there's these highs from back in late April May 2019 around that sort of 98 That 98 area and then back up towards that that 2019 high, which is that 99 30 up to the sort of 99 70 in the hundredth handle and that's miles away That's sort of for four whole points away And I know that's a really long time frame and we're all into they trade us of why is that helpful? I think that's helpful because personally, I like to I Like the wind at my back, you know I would only really be looking for long setups and sort of pull backs in the in the daily trend Because it on the daily in the sort of hourly time frames These are really as this as this moves higher, you know want to be buying those dips along the way The last looking at the last move higher the last four point move higher with this moved higher over a quarter That took three months to move higher and so what does that mean for the euro? Did I cover everything and they're sorry the risk is below is just below the trend line So below that 9750 area is the risk There's no guarantee that it'll work But I do think it's likely just switching over to the daily quickly to get a bit more of it surgical look at things you can see at the market at the end of December we tried to you can see this trend line being respected on the daily we break below come back for the classic and get squeezed up and There's guaranteed there's going to be shorts in this that have already been squeezed out But there's still going to be shorts in that ready to ready to move up I think that if there's a bullish non-farm payroll today that would just add to this whole Technical picture where I think looking at entries for the trade. I'd be focusing on the euro which On a bullish non-farm payroll you'd be look you'd be the spike lower quick pullback sell short and then and then just And then you could really hold this because you'd be in line with the with the trend If we do go back up to test that 2019 high from The Dixie well, what does that mean for the euro or the euro would head back down towards that? 2019 low that around that 109 I think what's interesting about this euro chart again just lining things up is the euro broke above held the 200 day moving average we look back here in July we moved above the 200 day moving average came back support support Broke below and then we came back and broke below the previous low of the year You know 200 pit move exactly the same things happen in here You know we break above the 200 day moving average we come back support support We break back below and there's this trend line that Sam highlighted yesterday Which has also been broken and that is hugely bearish set up on the higher time frames And so where's it going to go? Well, maybe it comes down to test it test the love the love 2019 Or maybe even lower. There's a trend line just to wrap up on the euro get the weekly out on the euro There's a big trend line From 2017 coming down here, and I mean that's a potential target for support on the longer picture and And yeah that around that 108 it'd be lower than that be one of sevens You know and and that's what I've got I thought I'd share that with everyone sort of the higher time frame levels Yeah, thanks a lot Thank you, Alex. Well, what I'm gonna do then is just quickly let Sam come on because Alex Obviously was just talking on a slightly higher time frame there So I think it warrants Sam coming on to just bring things back into a slightly more set up for an intraday perspective So hand you over to Sam Yeah, we'll have a quick run through So the dollar pairs and bringing in the euro here under a bit of pressure non-farm payroll is not expecting too much this morning Just on the futures here that weekly time frame will bring that in to get rid of those pivots Just dragging this to the left-hand side starting on the 2017 a good jobs number today I don't necessarily think we can get below here But you've got to be having this on starting here at there the the back end of 2016 early 2017 matching up with those lows that we had last year a break of that and it could well be game over and you looked a quick move towards the The gap open that we had following Macron Le Pen first round French elections Definitely keep an eye on that bigger moving euro you'd expect it to happen on a break of the trend channel either way as well So if that was to go at any point Well what a trade that could be and if the Dixie breaks to the upside This could be game on and a big move could come which hasn't really happened for for quite some time Intraday perspectives have a quick look at the euro before we go over to the pound and some other Dollar-related markets you can see where we're trading now is key because a yesterday's low But below here 111 31 keep an eye on that you've got the triple bottom from the 23rd and 24 Below these levels that's going to be a key area of support going to the back end of the week Looking above where we're trading the R1 today is filled with yesterday's multiple tests of that high Think of it Maybe it's a bit of a new range that we could well be in Is as well keeping a watch on that later on not expecting too much in the way of movement today Likewise with the pound which as you see with some bit of dollar strength is coming under pressure as well We broke in this trend line haven't quite retested that back So keep a watch on that as well But look at that right from the the top that we had here on the 7th of Jan You then get the test on the 8th and the higher the day the fur test of that trend line massively important Keep an eye on that definitely have that marked up the higher today as well as also an area of support that we've had from The 8th and the 7th this week so one 31 15 to the upside as a horizontal level and this trend line which of course will come down As an area of resistance as well Getting that price will will change throughout the day the low of the day area of Resistance turn support in the 26th. So the pound and euro some interesting levels to think about Later on and of course we'll go through this on live on YouTube for non-perils later on quick Look over at stocks all-time highs just coming off a tiny bit in the last 30 minutes or so Whether your people would want to hold positions over the weekend I'm not will remain to be seen the Dow on the the futures hit in 29,000 just coming down a touch and the Nasdaq obviously hitting all-time highs last night as well We'll run through these in a bit more detail later on gold. Yes, they did come down I found a bit of support and we're now training around 15 52 Potentially just starting to get squeezed from both directions certainly from the low of yes So you've got the free touches on that trend line on the hourly to keep a watch on that for any potential break out And we're just hitting the third test now On the top part there whether you want to get too involved in this before and on farms not too sure I certainly have that marked up oil after a shocking Well really from now, you know 48 hours Has started perhaps just to recover a touch when would you be happy? Well, probably if you get above that trend line there and the pivot and 5950 then you'd be a bit more comfortable about holding along There is that longer-term trend channel as well Which people are looking at be interested to see certainly where oil finishes because if we do push higher You can have a lot of resistance points from those previous Weeks in the back end of last year Which will be attractive for people looking to get into go short over the weekend wouldn't recommend holding any short term Positions with that geopolitical risk going to be still on the agenda and of course China US talks looking to sign that deal from Monday to Wednesday In play as well. We'll be all it will be live on on YouTube later From one o'clock, so please do make sure you your notifications are on for that Hope you'll have a good trading day until then with Keep your powder dry as the same goes. Hope you will have a good morning session catch you all later on