 the best all-star race in all of sports. Best all-star event in all of sports coming up this weekend, the NASCAR all-star race. We're not dealing with weird rules. I guess we're dealing with weird rules, but not dealing with like people not trying because there are a million bucks on the line for Sunday night in the NASCAR all-star race, which is some good motivation, which means like for the Pro Bowl, for the MLB all-star game, you don't wanna play DFS for those, you can. I don't personally like to. But for Sunday night, we are going to get drivers at full effort, maximum capacity, trying to get a million dollars, which means it is a great slate to play some DFS. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to break down the NASCAR all-star race, which is at 8 p.m. Eastern on Sunday night, you will get your, you can fill out lineups right now because the starting order has been set and we'll talk about some caveats with this race, weird format, all of that, to get you set for Sunday's race and it will be a Bandy down in Texas. Before doing that though, quick reminder, it is Fantasy Friday here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed because we have not just the NASCAR podcast here right now but also MLB DFS podcast, the solo shot already posted for Friday's slate and Austin Swain broke down USC 263 that is posted and it is a Dandy of a podcast. We got three different five-round fights for that one. So check out Austin's analysis and the baseball podcast by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed no matter where you get your podcast and while you're there, leave us a rating and review as well. Hey soccer fans, this season, Fandal and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one of a kind soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's soccer pick-up, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you have to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You will earn points for each correct pick. You compete for a chance to win up to $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to Fandal and enter the Captain Morgan soccer pick-up today must be 21 plus to participate for more details as a Fandal.com or download the Fandal Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the Captain. Let's start things off here in the track breakdown for the All-Star Race by talking about the format for the race because it's weird. There are a couple of quirks to discuss before we outline strategy for this race. The first thing is that there are just 17 drivers in the player pool for this week. Four more drivers will earn their way into the race earlier on Sunday via the All-Star Open but also via a fan vote. Those four drivers though will not be added to the player pool for DFS. It'd be awesome if they were because it'd be great DFS plays but it is a huge headache from a timing perspective to add them with just like an hour long gap to fill out lineups. So for our purposes, just these 17 drivers in the field and that does have some complications we'll talk about later on. The second thing is that is just a 100 lap race which is a short one, broken into six different, they're called rounds. That means that there will be a bunch of short sprints and a bunch of restarts. Again, more on that later on as well. The way you finish in the first four rounds determines where you start in the fifth round but there is a twist. The field is inverted after each of the first three rounds even if you don't finish well in the first round you still got a shot to start up front later on. So basically the first four rounds are just kind of qualifying sessions to set the order for the final two rounds except you get points for laps lead sprinkled in there. The laps lead point is key as well. With only 100 laps, we got 10 points for laps lead on Fandoul but one driver will not monopolize those laps. Whoever wins one of the stages, the first couple of stages will be starting in the middle of the field or at the tail end later on. So let's say Kyle Larson starting from the pole leads all 15 laps in the first round. He'll start probably like 12th for the second round. So naturally we're not gonna see just one driver dominate the entire night. That further caps the upside drivers can get via running out front. In other words, we do still want lap leaders and we do still want potential winners but we shouldn't count on laps lead and we shouldn't count on those drivers up front to generate upside via that scoring department. But there are also a ton of place differential points available here because they're just 17 cars. So let's say Ryan Blaney wins. The most place differential points he can get starting back at the tail end in 17th, he can get eight place differential points. That isn't a lot in a low scoring race but it's not as much as usual. As a result of that combined with the reduced number of laps, a disproportionate number of points scored will come via finishing points. So we need to bump up drivers starting further back to place differential but we also can't do that at the expense of good finishes. So keep that in mind. We do want place differential but there's not a ton available and we don't wanna sacrifice finishing points in order to get there. So our overall mindset is this, we want to find the swim winner because the 43 points for win this week are truly, truly massive and then bump up the drivers who can finish well, despite starting in the back. Drivers with speed, we have Excel and other areas we'll talk about in a second and there are a decent number of guys for whom that is true but we shouldn't just target drivers back there for no reason, we need to make sure they have a lot of finishing juice. There are a couple of other things to note for this week. The first is that we will have to try harder to be different because they're just 17 drivers in the player pool. We are rostering five of them per lineup. They're just fewer combinations. So that's important for this week because if you have a duplicated lineup in a contest that means our best case scenario is splitting the top prize that is automatically going to be minus EV. So you want to actively try to be unique whether that's finding overlooked plays, leaving salary on the table. You gotta do something to differentiate your lineups from the rest of those in the field. So more so than any other race it is important to try to be different for Sunday. Second, the other thing that's different here is that restarts matter a lot more than usual. We'll have at least five starts or restarts on the night and there will likely be more due to cautions because the old cliche is cautions breed cautions. If you got at least five restarts you're probably gonna get six. For comparison, there were just five starts slash restarts across 400 laps in the Coca-Cola 600. So restarts matter a lot and good restarters should get a bump up. You can find data on that on restarts at motorsportsanalytics.net. It is a paid site, but it's a great data site not just for restarts, but also overall speed, production in different packages, passing numbers. It's a good resource to have. I'd recommend it for sure. It's five bucks a month and well worth that. I wouldn't go too far in bumping up or bumping down bad restarters but I would give an active bump up to the good ones. We should also value good passers because again, everyone will be in the middle of the field at some point on Sunday night and you gotta make passes. That's nothing you can find over on motorsportsanalytics. So everybody's going to have to pass here. If they're good passers in the 550 package, they should grade out well on Sunday. I would note that it's not actually the 550 package, it's actually 510 for Sunday, little bit different. So keep that in mind as well but overall the best corollary will be the 550 package if you're looking at trying to decide who will be good, who has done well with passing, et cetera, et cetera. That does mean there is a lot to consider. We gotta consider finishing points, place differential, restarts, passing, being different. It's a lot of stuff but it's necessary for this week given the unique format we've got for this race. We need to find ways to be different so the more things we consider the better we'll be able to differentiate our lineups. So look for a winner, get your winner, get those 43 points and then look for place differential. Just don't use somebody solely because they are starting further back that is a great recipe for disappointment and you're gonna run into issues there. We do need juice from the finishing points. Then bump up the drivers through a good restarters, bump up drivers through a good passers in this package and then if you think that lineup will be duplicated in the contest, find ways to tweak it so you can be unique and not have to split the top prize pool if you do wind up banking it. So it's a lot to consider but it's necessary for this week. The overall thought process is value place differential and then value finishes but I think that it is a tough one for sure. My hope is that factoring in restarts and factoring in passing will allow me to be different because I don't think people will look at that data or have access to that data honestly so to me that's the area I will look to be different. We'll talk about a couple of drivers who fit that in the tier by tier breakdown. Speaking of which let's do that right now broken into three tiers here for this week because it is just 17 drivers. The top tier is the top four guys on Fandall Kyle Larson at $13,500 through Kyle Bush at 12,000 and there are two different categories in this tier. There are the assumed winners in Larson and Bush and the place differential options in Truex and Hamlet. I like all four but obviously for very different reasons. Larson is the quintessential assumed winner for this race. He is plus 350 at Fandall Sportsbook that is 22.2% implied odds. I have my 22.3% in my win simulations. So I bet him a plus 48 earlier this week but like you could still justify betting in the plus 350 if you didn't get in on Larson that's how good he grades or how well he grades out in my simulations. He is the only guy in my win simulations above 10% for this race. The reason he's there is because he's had a top five at our drain position in all five races using the 550 package on non-drafting tracks. Two of those were first place average running positions which is pretty disgusting. I did bet him again earlier this week or a plus 480. So if you're looking for an assumed winner you start with Larson and go from there. He is a great option for DFS despite the lack of place differential upside as an assumed winner it doesn't get a lot better than Kyle Larson for this week. Martin Truex, Junior and Denny Hamlin are starting deeper in the pack. Truex is 10th, Hamlin is 16th and I think that Hamlin is the best play in the field above Kyle Larson. He has a deep starting spot. He's a recent winner in Texas. He was good in both Atlanta and Vegas this year. Hamlin has been better in the 750 package than the 550 package. That is a slight ding to him but I'm going to build around here at $12,500 given the low starting spot and the big finishing upside. Truex would be a potential pivot off of Hamlin. He's been good in this package too but I think that if we're looking for like pivots guys who are near potential chalk there are others I like more for this week. I mean Truex and Hamlin together is also fine. I would say that too. Kyle Busch is someone I would be willing to use as an assumed winner. He ranks second in my model overall for this week behind just Kyle Larson. So that's higher than I expected him to be. I'm fine pivoting off of Larson for him but I do think that Larson is worthwhile chalk. So to me this tier is ranked Hamlin one, Larson two, Truex three, Kyle Busch four, willing to use all of them. Again, Truex and Busch could be pivots but I think that Hamlin the best play in the field, Larson is the best assumed winner. So if you're using Truex and Busch I would say it's mostly as a differentiation point off of the chalk in those two guys and there are other differentiation points I like more specifically in the mid-range. Let's talk about that right now. That is Kevin Harvick at $11,500 through Joey Logano at $85 and the second best play in this tier behind Denny Hamlin, that's Ryan Blaney. Blaney drew 17th, that is the lowest starting spot among drivers in the player pool. Blaney won in Atlanta, similar configuration to Texas but different tire wear so they're kind of different tracks, pretty different but he was good in Vegas and Kansas too which have more similar tire wear. Blaney is one of the best restarters in the sport. He is $10,500. I would say that if you're looking for a high floor starting lineups with Hamlin and Blaney is a good way to play things. I would note that that will be a very popular way to play things, so if you use those two together you gotta find ways to be different. One way to be different is being higher on William Byron. I think that Byron is going to be potentially the best pivot in the field off of Blaney. He is $500 less, he is starting up an eighth so not gonna be as logical of a place differential guy but he actually ranks third in my model in terms of projected finish. He had a third place average driving position in Charlotte. He had top seven marks in Atlanta, Vegas and Homestead and he actually won the Homestead race. He's $10,000, Blaney is 10-5. I think that's a great way to be different. I think that Byron will go overlooked as a result of Blaney being kind of like the no brainer shock for this week. So if you're looking to be different I would say William Byron is to me the key piece to turn to here. I would say there is also a lot of viability in using Blaney and Byron together hoping people go stars and scrubs and avoid this tier. That might not happen but I think that that is a viable strategy for this week. Another guy who could potentially be a pivot is Brad keselowski, he is starting ninth so it's not a ton of place differential juice and he's also not as good in this package as Byron or I would say even Blaney but he is a tremendous restarter. He has been the best restarter in races using the choose rule per motorsports analytics. He had great runs in Kansas and Vegas with similar tire wear. He's not a bad passer either. So Keselowski checks a lot of interesting boxes I would say at $9,000. I would not expect him to be all that popular this week. So for Chalk it love Blaney but I think that Byron and Keselowski are great plays. I would also say a fun way to play things for this week is use all three. People may use Blaney, they may use Byron but the odds they use all three together in the same lineup. Byron, Blaney, Keselowski probably pretty low. So just peppering that mid range, getting guys with some place differential juice but also the ability to win this race. I'm pretty into that for this week. So I would say being high on this tier in general is a good way to play things. Assuming people go at Truex, Hamlin, Larson that's gonna lead to a pretty top heavy lineup. I think the mid range is a good way to pivot for this week specifically being higher on Byron and Keselowski than consensus. The value tier is Alex Bowman at $8,000 undown. Bowman starting back in 15th which makes him a place differential option. He ranks ninth in my model. So a decent ranking. He tends to run better on tracks with heavy tire wear but he did have a seventh place average running position in Charlotte. He also has two top five finishes in the past three Texas races. He is a quality play here and someone I am very in on for this week. Kurt Busch is starting 13th. He has $5,500. I'm guessing he'll be pretty popular but it's for good reason. He's crashed a ton this year at the 550 tracks but he said decent speed. You could use Austin Dillon as a pivot under the assumption that Busch is super popular. Dillon did run well in Charlotte. He won here last year as well but not a good restarter. At least be aware of that but the speed, the popularity discount should be there. I think that Dillon does work as a result of that. So if I'm ranking this tier, I would go Bowman first by a pretty decent amount. I would go Kurt Busch two, Austin Dillon three, Ryan Newman four, Christopher Bell five. Bell has some of the same issues as Dillon where he is not a great restarter, not a great passer in the 550 package but better than the 750 package starting up in the front and third place. So that's why he gets bumped down McDowell and then Custer rounding up this top group for me on Sunday night. Let's finish up here with the picks to win for this race on Sunday. I gotta go Kyle Larson. I can't not pick him honestly given the form how good it is, given how much my win simulations like him. So to me Larson is the assumed winner at the top. I'm picking a guy below $10,000 as we do here on the podcast. I'm gonna deviate from what my win sims like and go with Brad Keselowski. They're actually not super into him. They have a 4% but I think given what he's done at Vegas and Kansas, what he's done from a restarting perspective, his passing numbers are decent. I think that's enough for me to say that Keselowski is probably overlooked at $9,000. And again, I really, really like the idea of just loading up on the mid tier for this week, potentially passing up on guys like Larson, Hamlin, Truex and just Peppering. Bowman, Keselowski, Blaney, Byron, loading up on those guys. I think that's a really fun strategy for this week to make our lineups different from what others will do because I would assume a top heavy nature is going to be the optimal way to play things which means Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon probably gonna be pretty popular. We can avoid that by just loading up on the mid range. That is all that we have here for today on the Heat Check Fantasy podcast. Hopefully that's enough differentiation talk to allow you to fill out lineups that are still good but also different from what the pack is doing. I think that that is the way to play things this week and we'll see if it works out well on Sunday night. Do not forget to subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed no matter where you get your podcast or an output podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, Googlepodcastradio.com, you name it, we're there. If you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. If you have questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer for running the video side of things here today. Thank you, Cal, as always. And thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck to you with your lineups for the NASCAR All-Star Race. Enjoy again, the best All-Star format in sports and we'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.