 Hey everyone. We're just setting up to go live here. Hope everyone's had a good start to their day Certainly a little selling in the overnight. We'll talk about that in a little lot more. All right So let's kick this off. I just shot some links out there to the Twitterverse of some other places that people can tune in So we've got YouTube. We've got Twitter direct. We've got Twitch now coming on. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for tuning in This is back to the futures with me markets in mayhem. It's Tuesday, April 2nd So we're beyond the AI pro-fools shenanigans. We're about to get back to business in a more serious way With that in mind, let's talk a little bit about me. I'm your host markets in mayhem My real trading journey began in 2005 funding my own account trading stocks Really was an interesting experience because you know, this was a pretty easy time to trade from 2005 to 2007 It was just sort of up up in a way throw a dart at a dartboard, you know And that dartboard has a bunch of different symbols on it. You're probably gonna do okay. So it's an easy start But it got really hard as we got through the great financial crisis, right? Things got crazy I got to see days where it was almost like the market was falling apart like a no bid S&P and no bid Exxon and no bid Microsoft to start the day And you know people in power trying to patch things up behind the scenes So it gave me a lot of appreciation for momentum for macro for understanding how some of that plumbing works and That journey has brought me to where I am today. I've been trading for 19 years. I have a much more systematic approach I like to combine different areas of data So I like to look at momentum price action options flows and positioning Volume profile and then also a macro overlay for those longer term swing trades for the intraday stuff Not so much. It takes longer for those themes to play out I began working with book map in early 2022 because I saw great value in the way their platform including the heat map Icebergs and stops really allowed me to see what's happening in the market in real time in near time And for me that was incredibly valuable Regardless of whether I was intraday trading or looking at longer term swings because I saw where there's these large areas of interest Where bigger players want to transact and then I started to see how they expressed that interest as well Then as I became more Enamored by understanding the relationship between options and price discovery in the market I built the advanced XPS options Visualizer that's on sale in the book map marketplace now Where you can see that and we'll go through that as the market opens and as we get that options data You'll be able to see how that works for folks out there that are listening or like well I want to get book map, but I don't want to pay full price. I do have good news You can visit trader a comm slash book map and get up to 40% off to scroll down to the specials so Let's do everyone's favorite part. This is the disclosure statement. We've got to do this We've got to be compliant. We've got to give everyone a fair heads up about how this all works All book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involve Substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results Okay, so with that out of the way, let's talk some charts and then let's get right down to brass hacks We'll dive into book map and we'll talk about number of different markets that I'm watching this morning First we've got the S&P 500 or the spooze as they're called by traders We see the market a little bit under pressure this morning It is breaking down below a level that has me somewhat concerned in fact We're pushing even lower now than when I created this chart and you know And we're starting to look at this but the point of this chart and why there's that orange circle There is we're breaking down below a level that I would call a decision zone We're now likely to get pulled a bit lower I'd be looking at the next level of support on ES around 52 39 25 and That's just above the 20-day moving average Which has also been an important area of support for this market So that and then all the way down to 52 17 if it gets a little nastier Those are the key levels I'm watching to the downside on the upside We've got some decent resistance here at 52 70 75 and 53 10 25 if we see some kind of reversal The NASDAQ does not look much better. It has a similar look it looks like it's ready to take a breather now This is not a call to say oh boy It's time to go max long puts and sell our house and just get out of the market. No, it's just more of like We've got a little extended here Probably healthy to have a correction in time price or both. Okay, and we're seeing a little bit of that But obviously if we're gonna get more downside momentum, we need to crack some of these key levels So the NASDAQ is just hovering around the 20-day moving average probably be testing that a bit today You can see it has a habit in the past of sometimes Sort of head faking below it and then coming back up like a beach ball underwater. You can see that there You can see that there So we're gonna be watching other times it just sort of bounces kind of clean right off that moving average But I still believe it's an important level. We are below my weekly pivot. That's 18,000 37775 on the NASDAQ 100 futures So that will have me watching that 20 day below that 18,000 248 75 18,078 75 and finally 17,916 50 Now obviously, I don't expect to see all that play out today That would be quite a big move But I do expect that there's gonna be some continuation of this theme of weakness now one thing one caveat for all of y'all listening Be aware that near-term skew is elevated longer term skew not so much But near-term skew is elevated which suggests that you have those passive flows that can bid up the market in the first half Hour to hour in the last half hour to hour. So that just means, you know, don't go whole hog short, right at the open Give it some time. Let's see how the 20 minute opening range develops. Let's see if we get a clear trend signal Let's see what the options market tells us and then maybe there'll be some trade setups in here You'll find that I'm pretty picky about these setups. I don't just trade for the sake of trading I trade when I feel risk and reward are in my favor Now we've got crude on screen. Wow. What a run this thing has had it cracked a pretty Pretty important support level here or putting for important resistance level here It's now become a support level I should say and it's trading just around $85 pre-market. You'll recall as I've been on here talking about crude I've been looking for higher prices in crude and in energy stocks I'm still of the mind that I'm looking for higher prices though. I think we're going to get into a resistance zone around 85 56 to 86 So I do think we might consolidate for a bit unless there's another upside catalyst But what a run this has been for crude and I think the energy companies now actually present the best risk to reward Opportunity we'll talk about that in a later chart But first we've got 10 year note futures. They're also cracking an area of support. That's pretty important We saw a violent rise in rates a big push higher in the move index So it's just sort of like the vix but for bond market volatility, right? So we're seeing some fear come back into that market Part of that was driven by yesterday's hotter than expected manufacturing PMI This morning at 10 a.m. We also have jolts Which if it came in stronger than expected And I'm gonna say that levels around 9 million Just just back of the napkin math, but if we came in stronger than expected on jolts I think that that rise in rates and the pressure on equities does continue here Now let's take a look at bitcoin bitcoin also looks just a little bit precarious here Um, it has cracked the 20 day moving average It's also cracking as I as I created this chart cracking a pretty key level of support seems to be moving even further down now that I'm looking at the Pricing here pre-market looks like it's 65,114 So I would say crypto does look a bit vulnerable here It looks like it put in a lower high if we get a lower low next that looks like a trend change And that may not be the best thing for folks that are looking for further upside from here Now crypto is an incredibly high beta volatile trading instrument. It can do whatever it wants There's no real fundamentals behind it. So it's really about psychology and speculation So it's very hard to get too much conviction But I would say the technicals here do portend to further downside risk Well, let's shift back over to us equities. We've got NAI am on screen. What is this showing us? It's showing us that asset managers are very very long us equities And in fact, that's the second most long they've been in about two and a half years To me this long leverage and lack of appreciation of risk Which we'll get to on the next screen tells me that that downside Grows if momentum flips because you've got a lot of folks that were buying in at or near all-time highs And they've added leverage in at those levels That could be a bit of a concern if the market turns against them. We're not there yet Right, we still need to see some of those lower levels cracked for folks to get a little more concerned about those leveraged longs but We're closer I would look at 5200 s and p cash as one level. That's where we're about to open today as a pretty important level There's lots of options open interest around that level. I think if we crack that we could get another 100 points lower in s and p cash over the weeks ahead Now let's talk about options exposure particularly as we look at skew going three months out 25 day normalized skew is Almost as low as it was in late 2022 when the market bottomed But this time is a little different because this time isn't people cashing in on hedges as much as not wanting to hedge at all So asset managers are very very long. You can see that on the chart here Their exposure as a percentage of total us equities is over 40 percent And yet skew is near multi-year lows on a three month 25 day normalized basis So that again suggests this is a fearless market. No one is concerned about downside here Which means if we do get some you could see some more motivated selling That's the only point that i'm trying to make with these charts It is not a binary bullish or bearish call. It is more of a observation of risk dynamics and how they may play out Speaking of shorting no one wants to short triple q now. This chart's a little dated, but it's similar Similar dynamics, you know looking at this now There's just not a lot of interest in shorting tech here Which tells me also there's a lot of folks that probably aren't too well hedged because if you look at hedge funds and how they Prefer to hedge their exposure. They're shorting the russell. They're shorting Individual stocks. In fact, they started to get pretty aggressive shorting individual stocks again Which may set up some squeeze opportunities if there's some catalysts in those stocks Nevertheless, they're not hedging in some of these more liquid broader instruments that may have more risk Right. We went from the magnificent seven to their terrific two Nvidia and meta where the rest are kind of lagging a bit here That tells me nasdaq 100 risk is a little higher if there's anything that happens to invidia or meta Now let's also talk about vol i so for a hedge not for a downside bet for a hedge And it's like paying an insurance premium and if the house burns down, you know, you get some money So you can rebuild for a hedge I like three month out spx puts at the money three month out vix calls at the money That is not a directional bet. It is more like the whole world is net long including me And in order to protect some of that, I don't mind writing an insurance policy here and there when the opportunity is attractive to do So now let's talk about energy energy Looking really attractive Look at the comparison between energy's relative performance as a sector versus Brent crude That to me suggests there's a lot of catching up to do at macro visor. We've shared some of our energy picks There's been a number of them that have been absolutely on fire this year and we still feel They have more room to go Let's talk about the japanese yen because it has been the talk of the town And we're seeing a period of consolidation in the yen as the bank of japan Does this very important turning point going from negative interest rates to zero interest rates and talking about Something may be vaguely resembling a very slow motion normalizational policy over the years ahead Now the yen is super duper ultra mega shorted by leverage funds and asset managers Like the most it's been in well about two years What does that tell us it tells us I don't want to be short the yen We've had some really good yen short trades Right and if you look at some of the stuff we've talked about in the past with the yen This has been an absolute winner. In fact h e w j which is the hedged japanese equity etf has also been a big winner One of our trades last year was long h e w j Short china because we wanted exposure to pan, but we didn't want it in yet Well after that winning pair trade and after shorting the end individually making fun money on it We're at a level now where it's very close to where the ministry of finance may intervene Those interventions typically lead to an ephemeral pop that is fatable So I'd be looking more for that something that causes the shorts to get squeezed out Positioning and get reset and then I'd be looking at this with a little more curiosity If I wanted to uh look at this as an opportunity to fade it again for now Countertrend pops in the end are probably the name of the game for very agile scalp time frame traders And then finally jolts is coming in at 10 a.m. Eastern the last reading was 8.863 million the forecast is for 8.84 million a meaningful beat and I'm looking at 9 million Would put upward pressure on rates and downward pressure on equities and the reverse could be true for a big miss So if we get like 8.5 or lower for example Probably get a decent bid in bonds and inequities So we're about to hop over to book map, but if you'd like to follow my work You can do so at twitter or youtube. My name is the same on both. It's mayhem for markets I'm also on twitch under the same name my trading ideas coaching and tools can be found at traderade.com Where we have all kinds of options visualization and other tools on our discord in the bot that I built There's also the advanced spx options visualizer tool that I built for book map. It's now available You can get it at traderade.com slash spx you can learn more about how it works and add it right to your book map But remember it is for s and p futures Right, so you've got to have rhythmic or dx feed and the s and p futures contract on screen I am making plugins for spy qqq in video meta and others and those will be coming out Probably this month Now if you want to get book map itself, you can visit traderade.com slash book map get up to 40 off To scroll down to the specials my long-term trading ideas and investing ideas research and institutional consulting services are available at macro visor.com Where my co-founder isha was on Fox business with charles pain yesterday Talking shop and trading ideas if you haven't seen that interview. I highly recommend it. You can find it on my twitter feed And I live stream regularly so you can find me here Every tuesday at 9 a.m. Eastern and then I pop on other times especially when I think there are important things to cover in the market. So Let's get in to book map Oh, look at that nasty little cell pre-market here, right? Whoo, just zooming out just more and more pain. So it looks like that pain really started And around the european sessions started to intensify And we see that distribution well europe was off yesterday And actually joked on the discord that they'd be coming back in today to resume their selling I really wasn't trying to be completely serious, but we do you know see more selling Coming over from europe during european trading hours and today does not Seem to be an exception for that. I will be very interested to see how this market opens I still think those vana and charm flows could give us a little pop in the first half hour to hour And that may be the opportunity to fade this if we get that 20 minute opening range breakdown Okay, so that's kind of what i'm looking for going into this But i'm keeping my mind open and my slate clean because i've got to see the price action confirm it after the cash open Pre-market is important. It's setting the tone But if we're going to be trading the cash session, we need to respect that that's a new auction Let's take a look at the nasdaq here. Yikes similar look as the s and p Just pretty much a night of selling and that selling really intensifying in the nasdaq this morning Like just just after 8 a.m Seeing a pretty big pull there and it's continuing. All right, let's take a look at our friend the russell 2000 And we're going to zoom out here just to kind of compare apples to apples similar look just distribution all morning long during the european auction 10 year note futures also having not the best day Um, we can see that there is a decent amount of absorption here, but I'm a little concerned about what's happening with rates. I think if 10 year note futures crack Or i'm sorry if the 10 year yield cracks 4.5 percent that is an area where equity start to become more concerned And we are pretty close. Let's look at yields this morning 4.393 percent so Not terribly far away Basically 10 bits from 4.5 percent So we do see this re rating happening forgive the pun In the long end of the curve, but really across the curve Now isha has spoken about this and I agree with her analysis That we're likely to see that long end pick up and that could put some pressure On some of the more rate sensitive parts of the equity market for example 40 percent of the russell doesn't make any money It's mostly the unprofitable growth stock component Those could come under pressure. So could some of the other longer duration risk assets It's also seeming to have some pressure On bitcoin and on other cryptos right seems that rising rates are starting to cause some concerns Let's take a look at gold this morning gold surprisingly resilient really it's been shrugging off rising rates for a long time I'm going to pull up a chart real quick and see if I can share this with you all I've been like just Kind of blown away by how resilient gold's been honestly So i'm just going to pop this on screen real quick Okay, this is gold versus tenure note futures in price Look at how they tracked and there was a pretty decent positive correlation and now gold's just up up in a way That divergence is significant and it suggests gold is seeing something that allows it to ignore rates Right And the dollar Pretty interesting if you think about it So that's something we keep in the back of our heads that relative strength is bullish Okay, it's bullish because gold is sitting there saying i'm seeing something that's bigger than that Maybe it's a fed policy mistake. Maybe it's geopolitical tension Maybe it's something else altogether But gold seems to be concerned and we need to pay attention to that and that relative strength presents trading opportunities We've had some great trades and gold miners We continue to believe there are attractive opportunities in the space and this is a bigger longer term breakout that is happening Crude on fire again We've seen this contract become a bit more liquid as well. Yesterday we saw 400 500 600 lot resting offers and bids in cl It's not terribly often that you see that and it shows there's a lot more conviction There's larger traders that are coming in and expressing their views in crude and we continue to grind higher In crude like gold Right, both of them are kind of sending a message Got the euro on screen the euro is actually gaining strength Which is interesting because typically rising rates pull the dollar higher not so much this morning at least not yet And that's important because the euro is about 70 percent of the u.s. Dollar index So if it's not Being, you know affected by rates then it's it's very likely that the dollar Is actually, you know falling a bit and it is it's down to about 104 66 as i'm seeing it on my screen down marginally All right, so let's take a look at some of the news from around the world as we approach the market open here And we just continue to see that distributive pressure in the s and p Liquidity is growing below us. We do have a large resting offer above But this liquidity below us does suggest there's still interest in lower prices here So now we're starting to see the media talk about something that we've been on top of at macro visor really since the beginning of this year and that was the risk of commodities increasing in price And that bringing about higher inflationary risks now. This is starting to make the news. We see coverage on it at a couple of different financial sites And even fact set writing a missive saying when it comes to concerns about sticky inflation There has been an outsize focus on core services prices, particularly the housing related components However, some recent shifts in attention to risks surrounding the core goods disinflationary trend from higher commodity prices ISM manufacturing prices paid component jumped to 55.8 in march from 52.5 in february the highest reading in 20 months And the recent uptrend in commodity prices shows the bloomberg commodity index up 3.5 in just the last month and some of these key commodities from their quarter four lows to now are up over 20 So there's more concerns about the disinflationary trend. Wells Fargo noted this as well So did jp morgan market intelligence. This is another driver of rising rates The concern that the inflation story is not quite over I know a lot of people like to say macro doesn't matter And ignore it and and all that and if it works for you in your trading style, that's fine But over longer time horizons macro matters a lot And this is one of those examples of it mattering to the market because it's now starting to price in Some of those risks of inflation heating up again, which we've seen in cpi rising for three months month over month We've seen it in services pmi and now manufacturing pmi With prices paid rising and there's a pressure on the margins of those companies And in some cases if they can't handle that pressure they pass those prices on and what's called cost push inflation If you look at nfib surveys of small businesses Over 30 percent are saying they're looking to raise prices over the next six months So there is some cost push pressure happening And so there are a number of different areas to be a little bit concerned about and I think that's what rates are telling us And oil is sending that message loud and clear today grinding higher above 85 dollars a barrel So those are some of the things we're going to keep an eye on obviously jolts will have people on edge If it comes in at nine million or higher, it'll sort of continue this concern about an overheated economy Which begs the question Should the fed be cutting rates My answer is no they shouldn't be I think it would be a policy mistake for them to cut rates But you know, obviously the fed's going to do what the fed's going to do There are political motivations for what they're doing. It has everything to do with the cost of service us debt The fed has said that they don't monetize the debt ben Bernanke famously said this in front of congress Said the fed does not monetize the debt. But if you look at how qe works, it's exactly It's exactly monetization of debt. I mean the fed buys debt from the treasury, right When they buy that debt from the treasury They are paid interest from the treasury Then at the end of the year they pay back that interest to the treasury minus their expenses, which are pretty de minimis in comparison What does that mean? It means essentially the treasury gets an interest rate Free like a rate free credit card like you get those six month apr free credit cards That's sort of what qe is and that's one of the reasons there's this powerful motivation for power to come back to the table and start Monetizing us government debt Right You can see it in the numbers The the interest accrued over the last 12 months About 1.1 trillion and if rates are not cut this year, that's going to rise to about 1.6 trillion by december For that 12 month period that 12 month rolling period. So that's the real reason the fed doesn't need to cut rates on on account of employment Right, they're dual mandate maximum employment price stability. Well unemployment levels are so low They're near historic lows. You could say, you know, even though there are distortions in that data You could say the data they look at suggests we're near maximum employment and then inflation's re-accelerating to some degree Which suggests we don't have price stability. So their dual mandate says they shouldn't be cutting and if anything they may uh, they may really be Policy motivated to consider hiking more. I know that's not a popular opinion For a whole lot of reasons But that's the world we live in right now because all that fiscal excess from the treasury during late cycle You know from from late last year from really the I should say the second half of last year That really pushed a lot more Demand into the system pulling forward future demand into the present and that helped to reduce The tightness of financial conditions that now they're so loose. They're looser than before the fed started cutting Okay, so the fed cutting into that environment is very pro inflationary. It could overheat this economy It could release the inflation genie from the bottle again. So that's that's kind of my concern I've been talking about it for a bit. I think the market's starting to catch up to that now that the data is suggesting similar Tesla quarter one delivery is an absolute disaster 386,000 versus 449,000 expected Nasty Just I mean, let's take a look at the uh, the pre-market price action on that one because that cannot be a good thing And we're about to open up in just a minute here Oh my Yeah, so not not the best. There's a lot of pressure on this stock. It's cracking that key level that we like to watch around 177 Uh, I did that a couple days ago. Now. We just see more of that pressure from that big miss All right. Well markets are opening here in just a few seconds. So we're going to go back to the s&p futures on screen Yeah, this is going to be a crazy day folks We're just plugging away at the vol trigger level if we push below here and build acceptance Well, I know everyone wants to think volatility is dead. There's no use in ever looking at volatility again Those are usually the moments when volatility becomes quite interesting And you would never guess I'm a bit of a contrarian, right? But I do think volatility is becoming more interesting and if we crack that vol trigger level From the advanced spx options visualizer, it's going to make vol more interesting to me Particularly spx or s&p 500 index volatility since there are all kinds of different volatilities we can look at of course But you know rate volatility is becoming more interesting too I believe the move index will have another nice move higher or not so nice move higher depending on how one's allocated today as well Just looking at what's happening with rates. It suggests that could be the outcome here 430 million market on open imbalance of the sell side for those that track that data And remember We have near term elevated skew longer term not so much. It's pretty subdued But in the near term that does promote this potential bid during the first 30 to 60 minutes and the last 30 to 60 minutes As that runs off and the dynamic that's happening there if you think about it If people are buying lots of puts in s&p to hedge their longs Those puts are losing value as time goes on Right There's state of decay. There's also price moving away from the puts. Well As those puts lose value the market makers that sold them don't have to hedge as much of the delta because that delta is dropping, right So what happens is do you have these windows of opportunity for them to kind of manage their books? And they like to do it During more liquid trading periods the most liquid trading periods on an average us stock trading session Are the first and last hour of trading So that's why you see them adjusting their books during those times Because it has everything to do with those being the best times for them to kind of You know distribute some of those s&p shorts kind of add some liquidity back to the market and that's where these flows come from That's how they work So that's one of the things to kind of keep in mind because you know We're we're in that period where they start to come back and we have that for about another two weeks We do see sellers pulling down the point of control in the s&p We are just hovering above it now. Let's move over to the nasdaq Nasdaq a similar look looks like it's trying to stabilize again You have some of these supportive flows coming in to sort of bid up the market as we open here This is exactly what we talked about pre open Russell doesn't seem to have caught the memo here and of course, you know Russell seems to like to just sort of do its own thing. This is a pretty large level Of resting bid for the Russell as well. This is not a very liquid trading vehicle And yet here we are with almost 500 on the bid just below Tenure note futures pretty stable a little bit of an upward bias here Gold catching a bid moving higher Bouncing off that point of control Bouncing and then cracking the VWAP here And crude just selling down a little bit here Probably one of the reasons we're seeing just a little bit of relief in rates There's a pretty strong positive correlation between the 10-year rate and the price of crude For those that look at intramarket dynamics Euro continuing to grind higher providing a little relief The weaker dollar is generally bullish for stocks because about 40% of S&P 500 revenue comes from overseas So it tends to be beneficial for their forex adjustments Semiconductors, you know, they're coming off their lows here. We'll have to see how this thing trades We're going to give it a little more time because it's pretty illiquid Pre-market to see what it does and what kind of microstructure forms during the trading day Tesla, you know, kind of trying to put in a little bit of a bottom here Let's see how it goes though. Again, this market is benefiting from some of those passive flows We'll see more truth to price discovery within the first half hour to hour So we got a little time to kind of navigate this Google nice nice pop here I believe Google's been making new all-time highs. I think yesterday that was the case This company still has issues. They're still making new all-time highs They're AI Not quite up to snuff. They just released something recently called vlogger That's supposed to turn an image into a video that's realistic So that's got some folks excited and they recently made a partnership with Apple to start to bring some of Google Google's AI capabilities to Apple products Apple's not having a very good time. It is below the 170s level It does seem like this former magnificent seven liter has become a rather significant laggard Like Tesla and to some degree like Google Meta's got a bit of a bid here out the open again Some of that could be these passive flows, but we'll be watching these stocks Meta and Nvidia are ones that I like to watch pretty closely Because they are the terrific to Microsoft a little pressure here SMCI, this is you know, this is sort of the poster child of speculation It has had an absolutely fantastic run But unlike a Nvidia this company doesn't have any proprietary AI products It's more of an integrator like a Dell or an HP enterprise So, you know, maybe getting a little extended here as competition could could become more intense And that's one of the reasons I think that that rally took a pause The other is they did a potentially dilutive offering And here's Nvidia on screen. It is below 900 900 has been a pretty important level for the stock So we'll be watching how it trades here It's also trading below the point of control and then finally Amazon Just a little bit of a bounce here. Let's go all the way back here to the spools And while we do that, I'm going to take a look around the world of options We do have more put demand unusually strong put demand versus unusually strong call demand in terms of sweeps this morning puts concentrated in SPY Tesla triple Q the retail ETF calls concentrated in IWM Nvidia Tesla Qualcomm and Coinbase And we'll talk about more of those sweeps as they come through early yet This also has been a kind of illiquid low volume week So it does not take a lot of trading activity to push prices all over the place Which is one reason that in that type of environment I take wider stops in smaller position sizes Right because that's the only way you can adapt I don't want to take bigger losses because it's a choppier market But if I want to participate, I have to have a wider stop because of the vault. So I shrink my position size That's how I adapt to more volatile trading conditions less liquid trading conditions And there's a pretty decent negative correlation between liquidity and vault That's to say low liquidity leads to high volatility High liquidity leads to low volatility So this less liquid environment promotes that potential for volatility as we start to build a little more acceptance below this Well trigger level Per the spx options visualizer here We also see Bids building below us here in es. Let's take a look at the nasdaq Nasdaq comparatively looks better than the s&p. We can see that in some of the strength of those mag seven or terrific two stocks, right? Now if you all who are watching out there have any stocks Or futures that you want me to put on screen. Let me know I'm checking around the different chat rooms here. So it may take me a moment But let me know if there's anything you're interested in me watching and we'll certainly take a look We do have a nice unusually large resting offer here the nasdaq at 18 350 Which as I recall has been kind of an important level for this index the nasdaq 100 Russell just continues to move lower here. It took out that rather large resting bid You had an attempt at absorption here buyers got pretty aggressive They're still trying to absorb sellers, but just doesn't seem like they have enough gusto 10-year note pretty flat here not a lot happening in rates probably won't be much happening rates until we get that jobs data from jolts gold continues to grind higher And I think that gold if we really contextualize what gold is it's not really an inflation hedge If it was gold should be trading at like $5,000 an ounce recall that it was trading at 1900 and change in 2011 So it's only up like a little over 10 Over 13 years So it's not an inflation hedge because dollar to basement over that time has been extraordinary Right you you notice it like how much where do you pay at the grocery store for health insurance or you know For education or for anything from 2011 to now It's a lot more right So what gold really is to me and I've traded gold since 2006. So I've gained a special appreciation for its kind of craziness It is an uncertainty hedge Okay, it is a hedge against uncertainty. You could see it climbing here We do have a rather large resting offer at 2288. I think that there's growing uncertainty For a number of reasons again geopolitical stress the potential for a policy mistake by the Fed into rising inflation But gold's not necessarily rising because of rising inflation It's rising because it looks at a world where there could be excess liquidity Where there could be excess uncertainty where there could be an overheated economy and I think it's getting bid into that Let's take a look at crude crude Starting to look like it wants to perk back up after selling down to about 84 50 Still think overall crude looks constructive here, but some correction in timer price is not totally unheard of We were looking for this to get to about 85 50 before it hit resistance. Maybe it got there just a little bit earlier We can see that Around 85 20 is where this sort of peeked out this morning Euro continues to move higher providing some relief for that Build in dollar strength that we had seen So we'll go back to the s&p. We've got a wow. Look at that resting offer there What's that about 52 32 3000? Now this is where things become interesting because you know when you're in a downtrend intraday And you have these really large resting bids come in below typically they act as magnets pulling price in and fulfilling that order But when they get really large like in excess of a thousand It becomes more interesting to watch how price reacts If we fill that that's telling you boy sellers have plenty of supply. They're wanting to unload If we don't fill it and we bounce That's a sign of a potential reversal particularly if you start to see Exhaustion in stops like some stops getting blown out and at the same time icebergs building on the positive side Institutions accumulating passively into that weakness. So let's see how this develops costco, please Someone is requested looking at costco That should be fun. Let's let's take a look at costco here And we'll backfill it like three hours You'll have to give me a moment to kind of clean up the chart here Just don't want it to be too busy for you all All right, so here's costco on screen. We're just going to pull this back to showing the pre-market action looks pretty sloppy overall We've got a lot of resting liquidity below us in cost I'm just going to zoom out real quick and take a look at this on a larger time frame chart So I'm going to share this with you all here's costco on my trading view You could see it cracked the point of control it cracked the 20 day moving average and it may Find some support here at the volume weighted ishimoku cloud Below that you've got a pretty big decision zone here. I'm going to call it around 700 So I think we may see some support there But if sellers get too motivated, you know, that's going to be a pretty big headwind for this one this has been a big winner costco has been a absolute just like Rocket it's been very hard to bet against this company for long And as we zoom out we can see this is kind of an important support level that we're at right now not only because of the cloud but because of Where we saw prices bottom prior, right? You can see this in several different areas So I would say that we watch this level here today this You know 714 62 That's going to be a pretty important level based on where price action has bottomed prior if we crack that meaningfully Getting down to 700 seems like a no-brainer Now that probably wouldn't all play out in one day since that's a kind of a big move for this stock but nevertheless To me this looks like a bit of consolidation But we've got to we've got to defend this area of support here around 714 62 So let me know if that helps with costco And if folks out there have any questions or want me to look at any other charts Happy to do it inside book map happy to look at the longer term charts as well That's always a lot of fun for me Hey, thank you so much for the kind words really appreciate that Someone said they love my work. It's awesome It's why I do what I do I started this whole journey of being on social media and and you know coming to learn from others But also to share what I know because I hope to benefit other people to accelerate their journey to help them realize More consistency as traders and investors If you can learn anything from my journey That to me is winning S&P continuing to grind lower here that first Half hour hour bid so far sellers are able to grind right through that that sort of Passive flow so far not really stabilizing this market much It does beg the question. What would this look like if those dynamics were not in place? Let's take a look at the nasdaq here as we roll through these Nasdaq was looking a little stronger earlier. It now had a pretty decent drop We see the size of those bubbles. These are delta bubbles that's showing you aggression by sellers Now you're starting to see a little bit more aggression by buyers trying to take control back a price action here You still have this large resting offer above So the nasdaq still, you know, it's got a chance. You can't count it out quite yet Again, we're going to be looking at this in the 20 minute opening range About four minutes away from being able to form that so we'll know what the highs and lows of that are And from there, we'll get a better sense as to whether there's a trend day in the making or not Russell also starting to see a little bit of stability sellers pulling down that point of control here And we have a decent amount of interest above and below But this is not a very liquid contract as you can see by the order book depth and just sort of how it trades all over the place we're also just about A little a little more than 13 minutes away from joltz data Again, nine nine million or higher probably pretty bad for rates and equities 8.5 million and lower probably pretty good That is to say bad joltz data or a deceleration of Joltz data would actually be good for the market because the market's looking for a little bit of cooling In the labor market to give the fed cover to make a policy mistake Thank you so much slowdown really appreciate that And thanks all y'all for tuning in. I always love doing these streams. It's a lot of fun I've been working with book map for over two years. They're a great group of people So, you know, if you do decide to use their platform, you'll find that out if you're already using it You already know it And gold just continuing to climb here Really no reason to be bearish on gold the microstructure here is bullish You can see it in the series of higher lows and higher highs that the precious metal is putting in over the last hour Crude choppy kind of the opposite look of gold here I would be hesitant wanting to long this intraday just based on how it's trading Just seems kind of indecisive, right? You can kind of zoom this out. You see a lot of those gains being given back Euro continuing to move higher but a bit of a sell down here on the larger volume We'll see if that continues Let's take a quick look at that tenure Little bit of pressure there, but not much to see and I don't think there will be until jolts comes out once again SMH Just choppy choppy choppy here. Let's just zoom this back out to the start of the trading day Yeah, so overall weakness, but this looks like it's trying to put in a bit of a complicated bottom We'll see how that goes Let's take a quick look at the options market for more clues still seeing Unusual put flow the the larger sweeps outpace calls, but not by a lot. It's about 20% more The most interest in puts an xlv nvidia amd spy xrt tesla app And then the most interesting calls an ntr xbi jd tesla coin intel labu the 3x biotech etf iwm and qualcomm and coin And semiconductors grinding lower here maybe so much for the complicated bottom. Let's see if it can catch a bid but right now Looking a little precarious there Still in that sort of consolidation zone tesla coming off of its lows after those really disappointing delivery numbers google giving it up this stock was stronger pre-market and And then into the bid and now it's just giving all that back and making potentially new lows quite close Apple getting a just a bit of a pop here back to the planet control I still think apple, you know, this is a company where management Has yet to show us what their next plan is they abandon their car They keep talking about ai, but they don't have much to show for it yet They just said that they have a model that can run your iphone that outperforms chat gpt4 in certain areas But we'll see when that comes to fruition It could be years and it's also a question as to what iphone hardware can even run that model because google tried to Put out a ai model for their phones And it was really only the pixelate pro and some samsung models that could even run it because it's so memory and computationally intensive meta starting to grind higher here looking a little bit more constructive comparatively speaking to its peers microsoft yikes not looking so good making new lows in the cache session here SMCI popping off this large level of resting liquidity here But again, probably some caution on this one. It just hasn't really been able to find its legs lately And nvidia still trading below 900 and you could see there's pretty appreciable resting liquidity below So I think we've got a decent amount of support around 875 If we do see some downside here And amazon coming off of its lows here Pushing up above vwap and the point of control And we're back to costco here costco just sort of stair stepping downward on low volume And news wires are running the story that major indices are lower amid a rise in treasury yields covering that same story We were talking about pre-market Sellers continue to drag down the point of control a bit of a bearish look there in es We have that really really large bid that 3k bid here that we want to keep a very close eye on It's just around what 52 32 or so We also have options activities showing up per the spx options visualizer tool that I built that is in the bookmap marketplace now You can see them coming in the most active Contract is on the call side And we'll talk about those levels. I'm just going to pull them up in spx real quick So that call is going to be around 52 40 spx Which is interesting because that was a very big level of interest yesterday As was 52 30 as the day went on, but that was on the put side now It's on the call side the first most active call 52 40 spx the second most active call 52 30 the most active put 5200 And cash spx trading at 51 88 80 building acceptance below a pretty important level of options exposure We also see the vault trigger getting pulled a bit lower here as the algo recalculates where that most important level positioning is And we are in negative gamma territory per our naive model That gamma flip level around 52 75 es which Tells us that if the model is on point, which it generally is that dealer hedging mechanism shift from Selling rips and buying dips to the opposite selling dips and buying rips. That's a vol catalyst, right? so other reasons to be aware That vol could have some upside Let's take a look at our friend the high beta beast the nasdaq and then we'll start talking about that 20 minute opening range It seems like it's trying to stabilize here. It's still seeing a lot of that absorption by buyers So we're going to go back to es. We're going to zoom this out and So we can see top of the opening range here. Let's call it 52 56 Bottom of the 20 minute opening range here. We're going to call that around 52 42 52 43 We're kind of cracking that opening range to the downside. Let's see if we build acceptance here But if we do I'm going to say that's looking a little bit more like we're having a bearish trend day forming I've got about five minutes left on the stream I will be back next week Tuesday 9 a.m. Eastern And as jolt's data comes out, I'll cover that I'll stay on for just like an extra, you know 60 to 90 seconds just to kind of cover that But then I'm going to pop off and start to work on some coding and some research and some other fun stuff But if I was to be trading this market today, I'd be looking at it a little bit more bearishly so far But we still need to crack the bottom of that 20 minute opening range and build acceptance there for it really to be valid For me to want to express that view Okay, and we haven't done that yet This may be something where as we approach jolt's and we get that data We get more clarity about how the market wants to move The big negative catalyst yesterday for bond prices and equity prices Was manufacturing PMI and particularly prices paid coming in stronger than expected We also got red book This morning I came in up 5.2 percent year over year Now this is a number that's talked about a lot and often it ignores one key element of this number Johnson red book is not real retail spending. That is to say it is not based on spending With inflation subtracted from it, right? and yet It's always talked about is oh the consumer is so strong. Look at what they're spending if we look at real retail spending trends You can go to fred's website the st. Louis fed. It's free If you look at real retail spending, you can see it's been flat to down since april of 2022 So the reality is that consumers are paying more and getting the same or less And this johnson red book reading is probably one of the best we've had the last was 3.9 percent So maybe there is some actual growth in there when you net out inflation year over year But nevertheless this number has been talked about a little too much in terms of how it shows a really strong consumer And it really it's it's it's a story of a k-shaped recovery The bottom 50 percent of consumers are having issues making ends meet Which is why credit card borrowing has surged and so has interest paid on that debt The top 25 percent of consumers have never done better Their assets are appreciating their stocks their real estate their bonds, you know if they have crypto as well And then the money they park and savings account is yielding Right, so they're spending they're doing fine It's it's that's the the story here is it's been a very k-shaped environment similar with services versus manufacturing big businesses versus small businesses Big banks versus regional banks, you know the federal government versus state and local governments I mean there's a very k-shaped distribution of economic outcomes Hey, josh. Thank you so much. Josh says thanks brother love the stream really appreciate your kind words my friend What's my take on bitcoin someone asks? I would say that rising rates could put some pressure on bitcoin here I think we're starting to see that it is a very speculative instrument driven more by psychology and sentiment than anything resembling fundamentals But I do think that it's gotten just a little bit ahead of itself given the overall dynamics playing out where financial conditions Could start to tighten again quite frankly with rising rates So I'd be looking at bitcoin a bit cautiously in the near term And in terms of our 20 minute opening range It looks like we're now starting to see the bottom of that range be a bit of a level of resistance So it is starting to look a little bit more bearish. We're about two minutes away from the data You can see liquidity is drying up just a little bit here around price That typically happens, which is one of the reasons trading events can be kind of risky. You get more slippage Less than one minute away from jolts Someone says good analysis. Love the stream. Thank you so much. Do I stream daily? No, I don't stream daily But I do stream when I can and I definitely stream for book map every week Tuesday 9 a.m And I tend to stream a bit more regularly on our discord at trader aid than publicly But I try to stream everywhere I can as much as I can Full well appreciating the sort of balance of time I've got to spend time doing research building new tools and keeping up with my own trading So I kind of try to balance it all like spinning plates, right? Jolts data should be out now. Just waiting for it to come across And I'll be wrapping up the stream After we get jolts data Okay, 8.8.756 million versus a forecast at 8.73. So this this release is sort of a nothing burger It's right in line with expectations. So I don't expect a profound market reaction Perhaps we just resume the path of least resistance and move lower from here And we do seem to be pushing below that opening range. Let's see if we build acceptance there Then I think it may be appropriate to look at some potential fades here So thank you everyone for tuning in really appreciate it had a lot of fun doing this stream today with you all Follow me on twitter mayhem for markets. Same on youtube same on twitch Check out my work over at traderade.com and macro visor.com and the new advanced spx options visualizer for book map You can find that at traderade.com slash spx and if you'd like to check out book map, which I used every day I think it's a great tool go to traderade.com slash book map and get up to 40 off. Thanks again everyone for tuning in I'll catch you next time