 Okay, welcome to this week's weekly charting analysis with myself Jasper Lawler. I've got the risk warning on the screen here. I'm just going to cruise through that. Any questions at all, please just send them through the chat window or the question and answer box. A typical format here is just to get through some of the major, most popular products traded with CMC. But if there's anything else you're interested in, or just ask questions that you feel haven't covered, well then, again, questions in the chat box and get to them as best I can. Well, we've got a bit of a data deluge, you might say, this week. A lot of data out today. It was really just the China data. We saw a collapse in trade data from China and that's kind of weighing on indices a little bit today, only modestly, down a bit, particularly in the UK where we've got a few sectors that are a bit reliant on China for product growth, particularly the commodity type stocks. But tomorrow we've got more Chinese data, the foreign direct investment. Importantly for the British pound, which for those of you training it, got an absolute crushing last week and has really done for the past few trading sessions, then we've got UK CPI data tomorrow that's probably going to be one of the first catalysts as to whether this breakout lower gets sustained. Because you can see that, well, this is today's candlestick. We've not actually closed below the low here. It's looking pretty negative, don't get me wrong. But if we put this line in here, you can see that we've not actually closed below there. This potentially could end up being a bit of a false breakout. Today's move, again, moving lower below it and making a new low, would suggest it's probably not. But until we do get a kind of, and again I would say arguably, this big move down here and closing below here and even just the 147 handle was probably more significant than this spike low. But nonetheless, that was the multi-year low and we busted through that. But whether we can hold above it, I think the first bit of detail will be the UK CPI data tomorrow. But later on we have US retail sales data, that'll have a big impact on the US dollar end of things. The dollar obviously surged all the last week, even though we finished off the week prior with some pretty disappointing non-farm payrolls employment data. But that was, you know, we've got a brief sell-off in the dollar on the day of when a lot of stock markets were closed during Easter. And then the dollar just kind of rocketed back to form against most major currencies for the rest of the week. So that's, you know, sort of strength in the face of adversity, suggests we've probably got some more strength to come. Well, we've got a lot of US data, retail sales on Tuesday. Importantly, we've got CPI on Friday, but also got a few Fed speakers, particularly Stanley Fisher, the vice president of Fed on Thursday, and not to mention US industrial production and beige book data on Wednesday. So definitely quite a busy week on the economic calendar. So for those trading, FX, a lot of US-based data going on. And then, so particularly in terms of the British Pound, again later on Friday, probably got not only the most important US data for the dollar, the CPI, but also UK unemployment data and average earnings data. Now, the dollar really has been dominating against most of the world. I'm just jumping straight into currencies here because of kind of the nature of the week. I mean, arguably it's a big week for stocks and for currencies, but I'll cover the currency aspect of it at the moment just because all the economic data out. But we do have US earnings for the first quarter really kind of kicking into full gear this week. So, you know, some of the biggest banks, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, technology stocks like Netflix, they're all reporting. So that's going to have a big impact on US stock markets and thus global markets as being the most recognized market out there. But again, if I just jump to the euro here, you can say that similar deal, the euro has not broken that sort of 105 handle or just beneath thereof that would put it down at new multi-year lows as the pound has. So actually seeing a bit of kind of relative strength of the euro against the pound. And I think a lot of that is starting to get attributed to the British election, but I think maybe it's a, you know, I'm not sure how founded that is. And if you look at this euro pound chart here, you can see that's pretty much a double top that we're looking at right here. I mean, it's a very short-lived trend, but then again the pattern is quite shallow in itself as well. It's a failure to make a new high and it's making a higher high and it's making a lower low. So call it what you will. I think it's a reversal of this correction lower, but we'll have to, if we finish today as we are now, you know, it's looking pretty bearish, but you know, we do need to close the day down here and have a close, because as you can see from these kind of days, you know, we can kind of push lower but close up above significant levels. So even though the pound is looking pretty weak against the dollar, I think it might be coming back into it and it might be showing a bit more strength against the euro again and the British pound data, as well as from the European data that we see, which is not so prominent this week except of course the ECB on Wednesday. So they're not really expected to change anything. There's an outside chance that they would, you know, perhaps even like raise the deposit rate back to zero, but really what it's going to be mostly about is discussing the, some of the details in terms of how the quantitative easing program has been working to date. So one of those where we're not, there's not one specific decision that can trigger the volatility in the markets to trade. It's one of those where there's going to be a lot of comments made and you're kind of going to cipher through that and it does make it a little bit trickier, but you know, depending on, you know, really how they want to kind of play it, if you like. I would argue particularly in his press conference that will determine kind of market direction. I mean, the euro is already at multi-year lows. I mean, it's debatable how much further they want to push it down without raising instability. But, you know, some of the economic data from Europe recently suggests last week perhaps being of an exception where it kind of deteriorated a little bit, but on the whole European data has been improving a bit and I think that is largely down to the weaker euro boosting exports out of the country. So good chance that the ECB still want to lower euro even further from here, but the risk is that it's, you know, starts distorting other markets. So yeah, there's definitely sort of collateral damage possible for this quantitative easing program and I think that's what all these central banks are a bit aware of, particularly the Fed and the Bank of England, when they're trying to unwind what they've done. You know, they're unwinding a bit of these sort of unusual policies, unconventional policies could create some sort of unconventional results. Now, while we're on the currencies, let's just have a look at the major pair that's traded. There is a bit of a yen data this week, but I don't believe that's going to be the major contributing factor as to where this pair goes. Vague possibility within this larger range of a head and shoulders here, but I think it's kind of pushing through. That could have been the right shoulder there, but it doesn't seem to be happening. It seems to have pushed above it. So perhaps a bit of resistance again from this rising broken trend line, but probably not. And I'd say it looks quite good for a pushback to the peak around 122 and possibly beyond if this dollar strength continues. Now, perhaps worth looking at UK markets first. Again, always worth looking at the long-term picture here. You know, we've broken this key 6,900. We've since broken 7,000. So some big levels have been broken and the bias is clearly up in the UK 100. And this strong candlestick over the last couple of weeks. Firstly, the big reversal. And then secondly, the strong follow-through up to new highs. It paints a fairly bullish picture. Not to say it can't roll over. And actually the pattern that it's been trading within is a bearish pattern. This kind of rising wedge, if you do determine to be that, is if it breaks below there, we're looking at the height of that wedge breaking down. That would put us back to around the 6,000 mark again, which wouldn't be completely out of character because that is the kind of trading range that we've been dealing with. Again, if we refer back to this chart for quite a while. I mean, sentiment's clearly shifted to a more sort of positive tone, but a much bigger correction with people on certain leading into the general action is entirely possible. And we are running into what potentially could be a source of resistance here. And obviously I've had this trendline drawn in since these two tops were connected. It bumped into there. We fell into this rising trendline, but weren't able to close below it. Big reversal on the day and then you could see that same thing really on the week where we closed higher. We didn't close higher for the week, but we reversed a lot of the losses. And just heading straight up to the rising trendline. And today we're seeing a bit of weakness, but obviously it's in today and we still could push beyond the trendline here. Certainly plenty of scope for that. But the 7100 is the round number, which we just kind of pushed in towards. What do we actually make a higher here? 6095. You can see it's basically people taking profits right ahead of that round number. And there's rising wedge of confluence of resistance here. So probably missed the boat to some extent on a little short-term drop. But there is some scope for a bigger one. And then this square here just pertains to my kind of redrawn kind of area of potential demand here. This is where we broke out. There's going to be a lot of action here to push us through that previous peak of the previous week. So then if we were to drop down to that vicinity again, that could be an area, particularly with the rising trendline that sees some demand again. That's not to say we'll actually get down there. We could just keep pushing up higher, although not shallow a dip. But I guess the idea is that should we move to the bottom of that range and definitely below it, that changes the picture very much. Now, probably one of the most positive charts you'll see out there is the Germany 30. So debatable where you want to put this extension basically. This is using this as a bull flag type pattern and then the breakout from this original breakout area. Believers where I projected it from, did I? I'll just redo it for those who are not familiar with it. It's just using this Fibonacci extension and then just down to perhaps here. You can see where you can either go from this low or from this, but really the big one is you get the 61.8, causing a bit of resistance in the 50 in between, but that's that 100. So it does, depending on where you put it, does project us up around that sort of 12, 800 area, which would obviously still be a lot of big gains to be had from here when we're at 12, 400. So keeping that in mind, any dips are worth looking into, but there really isn't any major support and it's not even major, just vaguely substantial support. That peak there, obviously the former one-time high, and then the 12, 150 down here, which was this peak from the seventh. We do have a bit of German economic data, but again, the reason for this rally in the Germany 30 is the quantitative easing program. It's not that the economic data in Europe is that great. There has been an improvement there, boosted a bit by the QE program because of the resulting lower euro, and to some extent the fallen oil prices, but it's pretty much a QE driven move. So the key data point here will be alongside international concerns, so perhaps the data from China could be some downside risk to these indices, but the Germany 30 particularly, it's really about the ECB on Wednesday. If we jump across to US markets, it's slightly different here. Obviously there's going to be some definite follow-through from the ECB that global liquidity addition is important for US markets as well, but it's the beginning of earnings season. The big thing about this earnings season is that there are expectations for an actual loss in income generated across the top 500 companies in the US, and that would be the first time in six years actually. Normally there has been some, it varies in how much it's grown, but there has always been some kind of profit growth, and that's pretty fundamentally significant for stock markets. We don't know how significant, because normally that's the kind of all important. We live in a kind of world at the moment which is heavily influenced by central banks, and so with central banks' support, maybe markets can weather the storm of lower earnings growth and still pass on to new highs and follow this trend higher. But definitely there's been some choppiness, and you can see this is the daily chart you can't see it as well, but if you just go to the weekly chart, you can see that we've kind of gone nowhere for the entirety of this year. That was the peak in December, down, up again, down again. It's still a bias higher, but very minimal new high made here, faltered. So it could be a bit of volatility ahead, which is obviously good for trading, and if we do get a move down to this rising trend on, I think that could still be in play. I had this circle drawn by Hall. We've not got there, so I guess you kind of have to shift it along a bit, and hit this rising trend line within this kind of demand area. It could be some value to be had if in fact we even get down there. The US30, pretty similar looking picture. It seems like they're kind of slope connecting these lows and these peaks indicates something of significance here. It seems to be about of equal value, so I've put in a channel here that's kind of unconfirmed because it's got to just only two on the top and bottom, but potentially this area about 18, 120 or so, which corresponds to some extent with the peaks back in December, could be an area of resistance given the big rally that we saw on Monday and then the following days last week. So let's jump across to commodities here. Now the big mover today has been recently as all markets. Now it does seem like maybe the situation has changed here. We've got this, I think it's the most obvious thing of the two Brenton WTI in West Texas crude oil. We can see there was this, this is a bit of a sort of internal trend line debatable, but it did seem to connect these two highs. Worked to some extent here. We had a breakout with a gap on the 6th of April, and so now we're basically, we've pushed higher back up towards these February highs. We've had a drop back down to this sort of breakout area. It's a bit messy around here. We've got some moving averages and sort of too much drawing perhaps. But so you can see this was our peak here. Drop down not quite to it and sort of acceleration away from here. So sort of looking good for at least a move back up towards the bottom of this supply area. Given the fact we've bounced off it one, two, three, you could say four times, maybe the fifth time we'll be the one to push up towards the top. But this is still quite a big area of resistance here. Now I would imagine there's going to be some sort of selling going into 54 as there has been, you know, this happened more around 53. 54 I think is kind of the bigger one. But if we can close above there, then I think perhaps a bit more, a bit of a different paradigm in oil. We've of course got the U.S. Inventory's data this week and we saw again a massive build up in oil last week. Ten or so million barrels I believe. So the oversupply picture is still there and it looks like maybe a deal's going to be done in Iran. So that is potentially more supply coming in and data from China is looking pretty weak. So the oversupply under demand picture is still very much there. Yeah, I guess the only real support perhaps is slightly improved U.S. data and the eurozone on the whole seeming to improve a bit and some further potential demand from there. But it's a pretty weak case and I think it's perhaps just the market's a bit oversold and we'd really need a much bigger catalyst to send it much lower. Jump over to gold. Now again a bit more of a sort of complicated, probably overly drawn chart at the moment. But I think the one to watch at the moment is potentially an inverse head and shoulder pattern here. You can see that this, even if you're ignoring the pattern, is 12, 1, 2, 2, 5 thereabouts. It's proven a pretty heavy layer of resistance and if we do get the breakthrough there, I think that's pretty important. And if we were looking at this as an inverse head and shoulders, the height of that pattern would put us pretty much right at the January peak around 1,300, that round number. So just an objective, it's not to say that objective will work out, it's got the general sort of supply zone to deal with first and this declining trend line. But there is some potential there. I can see that. That's just kind of how I've drawn this big breakdown here through there. You could have it here. So watch out for that kind of area about 1,250, which is obviously a round number as well, but more conservatively up here. You know, gold, I think in terms of sort of physical demand in gold, it doesn't really warrant the kind of move in prices that we've been having. I think the physical demand is definitely there on the behalf of particularly from central banks, is where a lot of the demand is coming from. And physical demand is actually down a bit from China, but probably not massively justified in the kind of moves that we've been seeing. It's really, I think, gold's really pushing around based on the US dollar. The similar sort of data that we follow for FX, I think is relevant for the dollar, particularly anything pertaining to the Fed. So for that, the Bayes book, one of the Fed's Bayes book on Wednesday, and the Fed speakers on Thursday, I think could be the trigger for or not. Rather, you know, the cause of a breakout or a failure rather in this reversal in gold. We're thinking it's silver. It's a similar situation. So we basically failed at this 1750-odd area with this previous peak from February. Failed a couple of times. So, you know, come up here, okay, understandable sort of failure. Once we've failed to make a new high, now we've made a new low. So looking fairly bearish, we had an opportunity on the bounce there back to the breakout area. We're already selling off again from it. There is some scope for a move off this area, but I think it's to some extent already happened. So you could probably get rid of that. And now it's just this kind of weekly demand area coming from the bottom here. Could still offer some sort of support, maybe somewhere in the middle of it based on the breakout that took place above this March 16 peak. But it's, you know, this action is, to me it looks like it's rolled over and probably heading down to the lows again. In this instance, given these kind of strong support back seen back here and the fact that it was that, that we were trying to push below but couldn't, I would probably put more weight on the 1550 than I would at the 15, sort of 30, that was the absolute low. Could just get a rebound straight off there. So I think that is, that's about it. You know, we're looking at a date, a week full of economic data. China is going to be an important one. I think I didn't even mention the fact that on Wednesday it's China's GDP, which given the sort of global growth concerns are still the kind of biggest downside risk to particularly stock markets. So if you trade in some of the indices, that will be big on some of the early on, on Wednesday, and obviously later on on Wednesday we have the ECB, so that's going to be pretty huge for if you're trading the UK 100 and the Germany 30. And a lot of economic data should be pushing these FX markets around. So I think definitely a good amount of opportunity this week. And of course, if you are trading any U.S. equities, it's going to be a big week for the banks. JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, they're all reporting earnings and may also have an influence. I would say most likely will have an influence on the likes of the U.S. 30 and the U.S. SBX. Okay, thank you very much for attending. Jasper Lawler, signing out.