 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger technician hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 hi everyone Basil chapter here on this Monday the 7th of February gonna be interesting first full week of this month February coming up and a lot of things I when I did my overview for my subscribers on Saturday I was quite lengthy one it was a little bit more details and I wanted to talk about my emotion I usually try to talk about this purely in technical terms and what I was saying is let's just go to the Dow right now we got the e-mini at a peak e pulls back to the 200-speed moving average running a little bit here in the one-minute chart the e-mini S&P went to a leg F in the 10-minute chart they could turn out to be a brand new leg a says f-slash a back again on to 200-speed moving average of support and this is what I was saying to subscribers to my opening call my daddy newslet on the one hand I mean I feel it's really bullish in the sense that when you think about the decline you're hardly seeing any talk about it at all now of course we with the coronavirus all the effects and effects of that were skyrocketing and the hospitals were seeing lots and lots and lots of patients are using of hospital beds the reality was that the general public which is starting to first of all they were getting tired it's a tired of the whole thing of course you should never get tired of something just because you're getting tired of it you got to do some assessment but at the same time the the the activities that are outdoors and that would include indoor like restaurants but moving outdoors to do it and when I'm looking at the jets which is the US airline index holding so nicely above the low that was made on the 24th roundabout in the low 19s and now we're at the 21 55 that all sats to do with the takeover or discussion in the airline index when I'm trying to put this together I'm saying to myself this spring and summer should be hugely bullish for the general market and then I start to say wait a minute are you talking about that as an emotional thing or a technical thing because if you're looking at Ford down sharply from the 25.87 high of the 13th of January down to Friday's low under 18 that's talking about the shortages if you're doing about General Motors that's serious stuff so how do you put the two together I mean talking about a dichotomy talking about the yin and the yang I that's really tough all I can say is looking at some stocks looking at and we're going to use Disney as I have spoken about for a while the Disney surely yes there's a media component to it so in a sense it's not purely just outdoor activities but if Disney comes out with earnings not so much things if the outlook is to say that I'm just not not using Disney as a stock that you want to buy or sell or do anything I'm just saying as just some kind of a barometer it's at a tremendous pullback from 203 down to the low of the 24th of January to 129.26 let me just type that in 129.26 is that a pretty nice bounce to the 142 areas 13 points about 10% that's nothing if you're looking at the week in the monthly charts but if all of a sudden we're starting to see towards the third or fourth week of February that Disney kind of in a way is it it's just it's an icon rather than a benchmark it's just something that we should keep our eye on but if it starts to move towards the 149.151 area without coming back and retesting say 135 in the interim period on a closing basis I think we're starting to see the signs that say you know what all those people talking about a multi-year declines etc they might have to factor in something else and that's something else has to be why on earth is it oops is the semiconductor index the SMH's remember on Monday I like to talk a little bit about our overview for the week so the SMH's which is semiconductor the market vectors semiconductor ETF trading from 300 the 318 area all-time highs down to 249 that's 60 points and 70 points that that's a big decline and it's in a bear it's in a it's in a bear technical bear phase in the dating weekly it's in a cell mode in the dating weekly I haven't yet been able to commit in the monthly chart after waiting for a whole of February before I can say what it is in the monthly chart but this is telling us that things are not all just hunky-dory so wow all of a sudden I'm doing that I this could be the one of the greatest springboards to the upside and the other side of a wait a minute there are some things going on here that's the reality so now I'm going right back to my box and I'm saying we're trying to be very selective we've got positions we've missed a couple of positions that were absolutely really perfect I just I have fairly tight stops we got stopped out and didn't get back in we have to just deal with that we've had some really great gains I don't want to give up some of those gains because some of those stocks are still acting really well they look like they could be part of any new phase to the upside I'm looking at the eye AI the eye shares broken dealer and security ETF all-time high on the 2nd of November this is now the 7th of February so we've got all of November all of December all of January and we've just started February so we've got over three months and you've gone from 116 down to 104 that's what 12 points is 10% correction then it rallies back to 115 ish area and then it tumbles down to the last low which I forgot to type in how could I have forgotten that which was the low of the 24th of January at 98.89 well 98.89 is certainly 24 22 is certainly a wopper of a decline from the 118s and now we here we are it's 30 point that yeah that's a big move so now what we're talking about is you hit the 200 period moving average a number of times it's running very sharply it's actually pretty well it's up today up 17 cents at 110.20 it's in leg C this is this is pretty good action but if you look at the month so if you look at the weekly chart I have to consider that it went to a cell mode there's a chance that it could be just triggering a buy signal that'll be the dating chart almost at a D and that would help the weekly chart and I'm trying to put this together I'm saying why on earth would if this is really a terrible recession type thing why on earth is the I shares of the broker dealer ETF the I AI well off the low up what 12 points from it up over 10 11% off the low in the middle of the range closer to the highs if there's really a recession going on and all I can say is this is a trifle catering market you've got to be really careful there's some fantastic and other such as maybe haven't I'll be back in a moment are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network at CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years 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the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 folks we're back and a very good comment in the den basically saying dystrophy fed typing at some point squashes stocks yep there's no question about that here's the other thing the market everyone says the market hates uncertainty my expression for decades has been what are you talking about every day the market's dealing with uncertainty what the market hates is uncertainty about uncertainty you've got to be once removed and then you got a problem and that's kind of what we're looking at in a way here and only that look the VIX index the volatility index trading up 29 cents to 20 47 technically if we're going to get a really strong rebound you want to see the VIX index under the 200p removing average under 20 you want to see it holding there and each day and the worst case is that you get a bit of a mixed market but at least two of the three major indexes are higher that's kind of what you want to see and at this particular point down down 30 what is 40 S&P unchanged I it's that uncertainty that we're looking at that is you know the market likes to climb a wall of worry and I think that that's kind of I kind of I think it's kind of there so if what we're looking at is it's the sectors let's just go through this look the XLP XLP trading under the the last height it was made up in the 77s it's down to the 75 79 area right now there's to be staples spider fun so the staples have been absolute real winners this is what I'm talking about when I say a tri bifurcation no triification if not a court qualification whatever you'd call it why because staples like a proctor and gamble trading at a down a dollar 160 point 50 almost at its all-time high in the 165 area these things should be weighed down if we were in a recession because in a recession money flows from the failure of stocks to rally the the weakness of equities into the safety of bonds that's not happened with the TLT the TLT I mean give me a break this should have been with the market being shaking like this money should have pushed the TLT up into the 148 149 area not 138 this is just this is just saying yields are going high the market does but then the market gets used to whatever it is and it figures out a way to to to work within those confines that's what I'm looking at so I'm just saying that we're looking at such a mixed market that you've got to try to be in the right sectors now let me show you this I want to do this for my subscribers weekend I didn't want to take too much time so I skipped it as I said I'll do some more on Monday in my show and look at this this is the RTH is the Venek vector this is the retail ETF 20% is Amazon look at held it's still so weak it's the the date is in a cell mode the week is in a cell mode and that monthly we've seen a number of charts like this is not quite a chapter with Roman candle right here but it doesn't look great that's the same that people are not buying the way they had going into that October November period but look at this XRT which is equal weighted so that Amazon doesn't distort has a slightly worse chart formation obviously because Amazon such a big weighting and was such a big winner and now it's just kind of gone sideways with the big pop lately what we're looking at is 78.90 up 41 stuck in the range but there's a really good chance and that's the reason why I couldn't become just overly just a rippler or any bullish I have to say this temper that bullet we only have long stocks from opening call newsletter we also have we've added value to it and look at this it's just stuck in the lower range this is the S&P ETF XRT and it's not going anywhere cell mode in the dating cell mode in the weekly and yes it's made it peak C not a D at the top that all-time high which was at 104.31 on the 17th of November but yet it's shown no strength at all and that's the reason why it's very selective that you got to be right here I wanted to do a couple of things here also Amgen with earnings out I think after the Bell Amgen here's the dreaded H pattern trading at 2 to 1.82 down 30 cents a number of people I don't know if I want to make this a formula that we're using 2 to 915 2 to 920 in my in my show I was ages ago I could have shown all the IBD investors business daily stocks the top 50 and I don't want to get locked into doing everything the same time same way every all the time so I don't want to get locked in but some a number of people actually not some one but many people have said hey we've got all these earnings coming out every week why don't you just run with your champion methodology why don't you just run these charts because the way the stocks act and react after earnings before and after earnings there are so many factors just one word can change the thing from after the bell being up 12% and then with the conference call all of a sudden it opens the next day and it starts to sink and you could have done all your homework I'd prefer not to do that but what I do want to do is a number of questions have come in and I'm going to I'm going to do that so Tesla here we go Tesla did I guess I didn't finish all the other Tesla is good we've seen this pattern so often peak a off the low of 792 on the 24th now it's in leg B but this is a cell mode in the daily cell mode in the weekly not yet given a signal in the monthly but it's it's kind of close to if it slips under 7 if there's a close under 770 785 at any point in the next two weeks testers having a big problem and that could be part of this whole thing that we're looking at just from the ports the shipping situation it could be backlog it could be anything could be the it could even be the semiconductors I don't know but I'm saying this is not great action it's fantastic action when you think of a stock that's gone from double digits all the way to a 1243.49 in November and the week in November the 5th and it's only back down at the 800 down 300 points so that's what 1415 percent but at the same time it has been one of the leaders all right so now there are a couple of things that I want to look at so I didn't finish with the VIX index if the VIX index does actually start to rally today I think actually the VIX index is more on this way down than on the way up at this particular point there's a 2308 if it does instead of going down to 2280 as the general market the market saw us to trade finally it's had that weakness we looked at from the chapter of Tringage and now we're looking at some kind of strength coming in if the if the dog gets to a plus 65 at any point and then holes in after 130 that's gonna be good you should see the VIX index go back the recipe is now at 10.70 and I'll be back in a moment there's a lot now to discuss we've finished our preamble and let me show you the evening right now there it is a brand new leg and one of the charts is still in the 10th of the chart right above the 5th and 10th area. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Our folks, we're back and I'm just typing in the notation of the Jeff Way methodology of the TRS person that did about, yeah, this ink, generic meds, I also believe a lot to do with eyes. We're looking at a high that was made back on the January the 11th at 15.34 and then on the 2nd of February went to 15.33. I've been looking at this so many times now. So many charts have this double top formation and we have to see whether it breaks out or not. Sometimes it's high, sometimes it's low, double bottoms, but when it is in the daily chart and it's going to impact the weekly chart by popping into leg B with the technicals very strong. I have to consider that you have to skip the daily and say this is starting to show the kind of strength on the technical side in the weekly, the larger time frame that is very positive. That doesn't mean to say it couldn't slip down a point. After all, it's kind of like almost like a, not some biotech, but it's in that viatrous ink and what I do like about it is that it's coming off. It was an IPO, an IPO back in 2020 was in November. Yep, November, it drops to 15.35. Usually they have round numbers on a single round number and it pops up the next month and it goes to 16.88. Still no round number and it starts on its way down. What was the low on the, in December was 11.96. Still no round number for an IPO. That's really unusual. And this says to me from the MACD being flat in the daily chart and the stochastic being flat at 88% that this is, this is fine buyers. So this is one where Piki in your particular case, I think this is where you start your position and you try to build a position. You're like the longer-term outlook and the longer-term outlook says, as long as it doesn't break for a week, for a day or two, that's okay. The 14.25, 200-period moving average, as long as it really does, I mean, that's almost a point down. That's a big percentage, but I know that you'd like to scale in and scale out. I'm considering that there's a good chance that was a PG at that high back in January that pulled back under the 200-period moving average. And there's a chance now if the stochastic, you know, a flat stochastic when it's just barely above the nine, it can stay that way for a long time. So it was like a rectangle formation and this continuing to rectangle formation got a good question that I'm going to get to in a moment on gold in the rectangle formation. So I'm just saying that even if it pops above into the 1530s, 1540s, it has to really get to the 1570s to say I'm done with this rectangle and then I'm in a brand new peak, A peak, B starting a brand new leg, C, and I'm going much higher. I like it. I do say that you've got to be a little careful because the rectangle formation says if it starts to pull back, 14.92 will be key near-term support, but I would start the position. In your case, this is exactly what you like. There's a company that's starting to do well. The monthly chart says, it's turned the corner. It doesn't mean to say it's out of the woods, but it says you've got very clear parameters because if at any point in February, it can close above the high of the week of the 11th of June, 15.92, then immediately that high of 16.29 becomes a target, and that was the high of the week of the 21st of May. So you can go step by step and you can see all the different support levels right there in the 15 to 14.80 area. So so far, that's exactly good. And I'm going to write it down as one that I would like to watch and if we'll do anything with it, but I'm going to watch it, Beatrice Peeke's suggestion. Okay. Now, yeah, so now the next thing is Jimmy wants to know, Basil, is gold an example of long-term rectangle pattern lasting longer than patients? GLD 20 point range for two years and 60 point range over five plus years. So if the stock was trading at 18, I would say, yep, but you're absolutely correct. Let's go to the GLD. GLD is the, it trades at one-tenth the price of gold. I happens to like the IAU whenever we go into gold itself. We use the IAU, which is one-tenth the price of the one-tenth of GLD. It's trading right now 34.52 up 14 cents. The GLD is trading at, let's see, 169.55 up with 69 up point 41%. So you get the same percentage over there. Now what I am looking, oh, does up 127. That's exactly what we looked at. And what we're looking at is to buy a particular issue, which we missed only on Friday because with it, I showed in my overview that at like 18, 18, 18 minutes past eight, I was about to send out buys, my traders corner, and I had to buy this particular stock under a certain level. And I just, I looked at the market and I said, we've already got one buy. We've got one that's probably going to be taken out. You know, just let's be cautious. And I took it out just like that. And it had a fabulous day, that particular issue. Did exactly what we wanted. So today we got into it on a dip and it's now up. The day is young, but it's up one and a half percent. That's exactly the action we wanted. The very select moves in very select areas. So now let's go back to the GLD. The reason why I brought that up was just to say that how select this market is. And then I saw that that was up 120 SMBs up 19. So what we're looking at is gold. Now look at, look, let's get the big picture. The big picture says sell mode in the monthly charge of the GLD. Why? Because, let me just get rid of that plus sign. I haven't updated this for a little while. That high that was made back in, I think it was February. Look at that long-legged August. I'm sorry, August of 2020, 194.45. August, let me write this down. 194.25. 8, 2000. And I think I said 20, right here, 20. All right. And it goes into rate. So it pulls back. Not a big deal from the 194 level to the 159, 40 points. I mean, not for a commodity. You kind of see that very often, but just chart wise, that's a pretty big percentage. And look what's happened. You're outlying instead of the cup formation, when you break the cup formation by going sideways, it means that what you've done is you've taken the potential for moving up, or if it was an arch formation down, and you've usurped energy both up and down, and you're now just going sideways. That sideways action has gone on basically for a year and a half, just on this particular pattern. I don't want to go all the way to 194, because that was a high. But I'm just looking at it on a monthly basis. And that's it. To make it as simple as possible for gold to break out, I think it's holding very well, but I just don't think it's going anywhere right now. It's in a trading range. Gold, first of all, has to close above the high of January of this year, with a high of 173.35. That's that high. Everything was at 23, the 24th, 25th. 25th of January. It has to close above that, and it has to close above that in a weekly chart. And what that does is it takes the daily, so it takes the weekly, it goes from peak A, great peak A to great peak B. It's in a double-leg C to the upside right now, peak C. And you have to confirm, because I think it's close to about 170, no about 170, on a closing basis, it's going to be a real quick higher above that peak C. 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It pulled back pretty sharply from the 173s down to the 166s, and now it's running in a gray leg B up. And I just think that at this particular point it's just kind of stuck for the moment. But, and this is going to be really important because if you're looking at the dollar, oh, why do you type on there? Okay, if you're looking at the dollar, there we go, DXY. If you're looking at the dollar, this decline, and I have to, I should put that in just to make it clear. It was, I thought it could be a leg C, but I said there's a chance you could grab that previous way back peak D and use it as an E. Whatever it is, I said that doger candle, if it pulls back sharply, it has all the characteristics with the stochastic gang quickly over 80% and then immediately down within three, four, five bars. That's a terrible, terrible situation. So I think the dollar isn't now in a digestive phase. Our long dollar from 19.07 wants to go to 102.99, wants to come back to 89.21, and then rally back again. I treat this as an icon of American economy more than anything else, more than just a currency. And we'll see what happens here. This is the big thing, why? I'm just going to deviate for a minute because I like to use stepping stones from one thing that leads directly to another. Well, look at this, the HGX, and we're going to get, why am I not getting this? HGX, please come in nicely, they are. The HGX, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index, this big double top, it actually looks this doger candle B, looks like the dollar, where it's an alternate count, but I have to call it a B, there's no other count. It looks like a D, but it looks to me like it could pull back very sharply with an arch formation, the dreaded H in the monthly chart, a peak C failure under the peak G that was made back at the high that was 530, no, that was way back, that was back here, that was the high that was made back at about 500, back in August of 2020. Now look at this, so 20 or 20, yeah, 20, 20, 2021. And then it bounces back and goes to 531 and a peak D pulls back, look at this dreaded H pattern, what's the dreaded H pattern on the Chapmanian mythology? I look at two major trends, trend lines, trend patterns. Straight line up, straight line down, cup formation, arch formation, or a mix of 1 and 2 or 1 and 3. 1 and 3 is the dreaded H because it's ready, if it takes out that left side low, look what happened there, dreaded H pattern fails miserably, takes out the left side low and goes very sharply lower, that's what we're looking at. This is what I'm worried about and that was a couple of questions came in, I'll deal with them all at once. So I'm going to go back to gold, but I want you to talk about patterns that you consider a rectangle, look this could be a rectangle formation in the Philadelphia housing sector, index going from that high that was made, what did I say, somebody like May of 2021 in the 530 area that I retest. So now what we're looking at is, there could be a rectangle formation where it goes from a cup formation to a second cup formation like a pair of bifocals or something, or reading glasses. And that says be careful here because look at this, tall brothers, high-end homebuilders, makes an all-time high in the 75.61, 13th of December, plummets down to the 54s, that's 20, that's 20 points, that's a big move down and it doesn't look like it's done. Chapman Way peak Ds, you've got to be careful, peak D in the weekly. It looks like it could be an alternate count in the monthly, I'm not going to deal with the Chapman Way notation other than to say it looks like that could be not just a C, but even a G in the monthly chart, but let's just make it simple. If in the next two weeks, you see tall brothers trading under, it's a 54.96, trading under 52, the selectivity of the market is saying, there's a sector that is under pressure because of the higher yields. Look at Hovenanian, same thing, banks are high of 133, that beautiful double top that I've been talking about, 133.99, December the 13th, weekly too late, it goes to 133.27, less than a dollar from that high makes a cup formation and plummets down below the 200-period moving average to 93.40 points, I mean that's just a big deal. We've got tall brothers, there's one I just always forget for some reason, one of the ones I love and I'm forgetting it, so tall of a BZH, the BZH homes, look at this, BZH homes, the GEDDH just took it out on Friday, it's lower now, now from the 24 area down to 17, BZH homes, I, we're looking at ABCDEFG, tall, why am I forgetting one? This one that I always use, and it's a really important homebrew, all right I'll find it in a moment, tall H, and that doesn't matter, oh Lenard, there you are, Lenard Lenard, and I should remember Ali N for the Lenard Corporation housing, remember Len from Cape Coral, we always exchange New Year's greetings, he was, he was, I've never known anyone in the housing market like him, way back in the crash of 2000, he had been building up houses between his son and himself in Chicago and Cape Coral area for years and years, and then he sold almost at the top, and then back in 2007, I spoke to him at one of our last meetings down in Florida in the Tiger Financial News Conferences, and he said, yep I've been buying again, I sold just like, I'm getting houses back at the prices that I sold, that I bought them for way back before, and he did that, and I can't, yeah he just lent from Cape Coral, I lent, I don't know if you've ever listened to GFN anymore with all your, just your hundreds and hundreds of rentals, congratulations, so Lenard, I don't know what he has anything to do with Lenard, doesn't matter, he's independent, Lenard Corporation trading up 36 cents and 90.66, look at another dreaded age here, that goes from 117 down to the 89s, that's a pretty big pullback, I'm watching this to do with the TLT, because look at the TLT, down again, down 36 cents, at 138.86, so someone sent you saying, why are you looking at Disney, a company with no earnings, why do you keep talking about it? A good comparison would be to look at the homeboulders and interest coincidentally, that's exactly what I've just done, it's been 12 years since interest rates have risen, why don't you do a study looking back in history, believe me, anybody's done work on the rates and the effects on the market, I've done tons and tons, so that's not the issue, the issue is going to be, how does the market ameliorate, how does it, how does it, like it always does, how does it find the pockets of strength, like I spoke about the IAI, people are buying stocks, that's why the broken security index is moving higher, there's no other reason, right? And the other thing is, look at the housing, we just looked at it, yes, I agree, housing is coming down because rates are going up, but what, am I going to exclude a stock that goes from Amazon, that goes from way back when it was having, just, it was just plowing money back into its business and really the profits were just pathetic, when you looked at it because the way they dealt with money and the money was building an empire, it had no earnings, you would have lost power, it didn't buy a way back in the triple digits, so now in the high four digits, that way. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Hi, folks, in this last section, let me just do a couple of things and one of the aspects that's really important. Look, the S&P Viotech fund, this is trading at $93.21 up $2.42. It's just stuck in this range. I suspect that it could have a bit of a rally, but this pattern here says, unless you treat this circle or U-shaped pattern, this consolidation phase between $95 and $93.5, as a spring, a lotus spring that's just going to power to the upside. And I just don't see it right now because I don't think this is in the sectors that are favorable at this particular point. You would have to see $97.50 to $98.50 by Wednesday or Thursday. If that happens, it's going to be in play. So I'll do the same thing with IBV, same thing. IBV needs to get to the $131. This is the Nasdaq Viotech. It needs to be in the $137.50 to $138.50 area. And really soon, then it's going to be attractive to fund managers. XBI, sorry, that's the XBI. The question I had was, where did I go? Where did I go? Where did I go? Oh, so I said to subscribers in my overview of the weekend, we always do a very thorough overview. I said, let's keep an eye on the Bitcoin because that's going to outpace gold. That's so far the pattern that's working. Much better. And look at it today. Up 3,210, and $43,850. We still have a little bit left, but I wanted, there's a particular stock that we, that I had focused on for a couple of, quite a few weeks, months in fact. And I said, this particular stock is where we'll go if we like it. And the Dawn stock, ah, it was trading in the single digits. And I said, this is it. And it's up huge today. That's the way we wanted to play it. I have to now wait for a pullback to see if it's possible. This is what you wanted to see in the IBB, breaking above that rectangle formation. It's not done yet, but this is the way you want to come out of the box. So keep an eye on Bitcoin. There is something there. Big resistance at 40, 45,400 to 200-period moving average. It's at 43,865. I'm thinking it's just real close to a little bit of a fallback. And then we have to decide, is this now in play again or not? So with that said, what's the VIX index? What's the sustaining move off the 1.30 in the market to have to