 Well, visual asset news my name is Robin today. This is going to go over probably one of the most Unpopular videos I'm ever going to do. So if you're here for the live stream or watching the recording, thanks for stopping by First thing we're talking about is the four-year cycles and review and why they are still intact they're gonna talk about how everybody said that June was the bottom and Of course, everybody was wrong and if we take a look at that I think we need to take a look at some data points just to see what we're at and lastly We'll take a look at ROI's the top three coins versus S coins and four things for me to actually be bullish and last We'll do a little Q&A. So first things first. Thanks for stopping by. I appreciate on a Saturday. Look at you today I was just going over some data points just to take a look at just how far off we were and It all kind of comes down to the four-year cycles, which you know people will talk negatively about But in all honesty, they are still intact So I think we should be talking about them and it's important to take a look at different sides So we can argue every side and what I'm going to take a look at real quick. Just a quick review of the four-year cycles now on this channel we talk about all the time and Unless I am incorrect, they are still in play and of course the four-year cycles all start with the Bitcoin having some people We'll take a look at different cycles and they'll start with Bitcoin's inception in 2009 and then go from there I personally believe that everything starts with the having and So far it's been true. So in 2012 we had the very first having of Bitcoin So Bitcoin miners it gets cut in half. There's a more of a scarcity or a finite supply as they fire up the rigs and Half of that every 10 minutes is what they earn in Bitcoin rewards and after that about a year So we see an all-time high. This is what happened. Bitcoin was around five bucks around this time and 2012 and then in 2013 it went to 1,132 bucks pretty good 2014 there was a dip because it just became overheated Excuse me in 2015 a reset This is cycle two Having 2016 all-time high 2017 a dip and a reset. This is cycle three, which we are in right now 2020 we had a having sweet days and then 2021 we had an all-time high 67,000 somewhere around there in November. We are currently in 2022 unless I am time traveling And we've seen quite a bit of a dip and I think there's more pain to come I'll show you in a bit and then of course there was a reset. Hopefully there'll be a reset in 2023 We start to pivot maybe get through the feds all these things and then of course cycle four which hasn't happened yet We'll start in 2024 With a having so knowing all this I Put together just a just a list little data points Of how far we've dropped in each one of these cycles and you can find the cycle lows and highs There's a link in the description All the data is there Correct me where I'm wrong here, but the first cycle of course between 2012 2016 From the very top to the bottom bitcoins price fell 85% it was 1127 dollars went to 172 dollars And a very short amount of time quite honestly and then in 2015 16 excuse me 16 to 2020. This is what cycle two we dropped 84 percent So the first one was an 85 percent drop next one was an 84 percent drop and of course now we are in cycle three and This is an old data point And I had to redo it because this is what I Put in Based on what all the gurus will tell you which was June was the bottom. I'd never thought it was the bottom I was like, I don't see how you can say that. I don't see how the macro event Will dictate to us that this is the bottom We have to have like Jerry me talked about yesterday. We have to have a liquidity liquidity people need to feel safe to invest and I mean that the narrative can be whatever it is, but I didn't think 71% Was the bottom and actually the bottom so far in quotes has been The 9th of November when we hit a price tag of 15,742 so from the top of 67,145 to 157 that's a 77% drop Which are like, well, that's not too bad You know, we only got you know 7% more to drop to get to that 85% because remember 85% 84% Well, let's put the hairs will say we'll round up 84 and a half 85 85% drop from the top of $67,000 is 10,000 Bitcoin It's a $10,000 price of Bitcoin. Does that mean this is going to happen? No, that's not Just because we did something in the past doesn't mean it's going to repeat again. I need to stress that but We've seen like these cycles. They just hit us It's just seems like over and over and over again and things just repeat so I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's an interesting thought process to see where we're at and that could be Near the bottom. I don't think we are and I hope I'm wrong. I pray I'm wrong But this is where we're at but I also had to take a little bit more deeper into this and take a look at You know some other pieces just not Bitcoin, but what about Ethereum? So Ethereum and this is cycle 2 everything to me is based on Bitcoin cycles Of course, this is a theorems first cycle. It was created in 2015 2016 came out at you know pennies, but I Take a look at because everything follows Bitcoin. Does it not Bitcoin rallies? Then everybody sells off gets into all coins. Everybody makes their money sells off goes right back into Bitcoin so with the Ethereum here Between it's it's top of almost $1,500 in January 2018 in roughly a year it dropped 94 percent to 83 bucks That's pretty big drop and then if we take a look now Um, what is interesting though is that when everybody was calling for the bottom? It was all Bitcoin bottom, but actually so far that has been the bottom for Ethereum 18th of June The bottom for Ethereum was 995 so it dropped below a thousand for a small amount of time. It's high was 4742 that is a 79 percent reduction Which is quite hefty. I might admit I must admit However, if we take a look back at the past and go well, you know hasn't hit that magical 94 percent just like we talked about the Bitcoin I'm not going to scare everybody was showing 94 percent. Let's just stick with 90 percent That means that from the top of 4742 a 90 percent reduction would mean we are at a 475 Ethereum and before I go on comment Just real quick Does that price tag scare you of 475 for Ethereum Or does that say to you this is a pretty good opportunity? Just curious to see where everybody's at. I think most of the people who follow me on this channel I know which way they're going to go but just curious to see what it is and then also To break it down even even to a worse Drop off of cardano. Do you know what cardano was of dollar 18? for the cycle two in january 2018 january 2018 A dollar 18 and everybody thought that was magic because it came out of nowhere well And roughly a year It dropped to below three cents 0.027 cents. That's a 98 percent reduction and interestingly enough is that today Actually Cardano is closer than every single one out there To its original price point. I don't think it's going to drop 90 percent. Let's just say 95 percent So right now it has dropped 91 percent so far It went from 2.97 cents roughly to today of around 26 actually that's 16 december So that was that was last night. I don't know what it is right now, but 91 percent And just to give you a feel of just how different just a four percent points 4 percentage points are from the all-time high if it goes just to 95 98 just 95 percent you're looking at a 15 cents cardano I could see that does that scare me not really If we think about where things are going so that will lead me to my next point So we just talked and took a look at some price points again not saying it's going to happen But historically that's what it's been And this is the part that kind of concerns me a little bit The ROI's and this is Ben's website I steal from it every possible chance I can get Because it's great information. I don't show you like the really good stuff because I can't Which is like the time and risk bands and things like that But the stuff that you can you couldn't extrapolate and look for I do show it and one of these It's the ROI after the cycle bottom and this three we're going to look at eta Ethereum and bitcoin. Let's just start with eta And of course this right here You blow this up You're looking at mark market cycle one Which is ben always does it with their market cycle So the market cycle one for cardano The very first one went went from nothing to A dollar or whatever it also was in 2018 The rio was a almost an 11x 10.83 almost 11x and then if we take a look at market cycle two actually it did quite well Which was the one we just went through And in september 2021 it hit its all-time high and that was at a hundred and 23x Which is pretty good. Let's be honest for for any any coin And I know this is what people will say. Well, that's an s coin and it's worthless and blah, blah Well, it's doing pretty good things and makes pretty good money And also it's got some pretty good products on there world mobile token meld Those two cornucopia's game, which are actually working products by the way I hate to bust everybody's bubble, but world mobile token actually has terabytes As far as connecting the unconnected and built on cardano. So sure Moving forward ethereum Ethereum from its first cycle ROI You were looking at 3000 a 3000 x but I don't like to look at these because that's going from zero Essentially all the way up I'll take a look at the second one the second one the bottom was 2018 market cycle two ROI 58x which is pretty good and it seems like the lower down on the scale you go The more the ROI actually increases as time goes on and approve or just to not prove just to show you the data Here's the bitcoin market cycle bottom. This is the thing that concerns me and when I talked about bitcoin to 40k stick with me so from the bottom in market cycle one, which is 2009 10 all the way to the top Market cycle one the ROI was amazing for bitcoin I don't know who got in in 2010. I wasn't one of those people, but it was you. Congratulations. Hopefully you didn't lose your bitcoin Hopefully you didn't get scammed. Hopefully you sold the top. Hopefully we did everything perfect. Hopefully And you would have had a 500 and she's always 583 x which is pretty good Not as good as say ethereum, but just saying Market cycle two which is in red That was our What I would consider my cycle one, but that's how ben does it You're looking at a ROI of 502 x That was it's all time high on 2013 So now look at this diminishing returns here so we had 583 and over here We had 500 again So 583 583 to 502 is a slight reduction. However, it gets worse as time has gone on in cycle three Which is this orange? right here from the bottom Of cycle three, which is 2015 to the top which was 2017 December 16 2017 which coincidentally was when the bitcoin futures was launched by the chicago mercantile or cme exchange It topped out at that point and that was a 110 x So if you take a look at here, you go 500 to roughly 100 That's a fifth or 20 percent And then if you take a look at the cycle four or the one we just went through Which started on 2018 And we topped out November around 67,000 dollars. It was a 20 x So you go from 500 To 20 percent of 500 is 100 x And 20 percent of 100 is roughly 20 x right So if I just extrapolate that And just use the worst numbers I possibly can 20 percent Of a 20x 4x and at the 4x Is the is the worst bottom we can possibly have which I I'm hoping that's what it is is the worst which Could potentially be Okay 10k times 4 40 000 could that happen not sure I don't think it will But it could be and it's and it's a little bit shaky, but there is one thing I would like to make mention of that is this ROI after latest cycle bottom Let me let me be be straight with everybody bitcoin's the safest bet it is the blue chip Let's be honest. You can put your mind to some other stuff some s coins But it's risky and if you want to do that that's up to you I'm not your dad. I don't I can't tell you what to do. I'm not a financial advisor but if you look at the data The ROI after the latest cycle bottom of the top 10 coins What do you see here? You see a bunch of s coins as people would call them. I personally own mattock done quite well And from the latest cycle bottom Mattock is 255x Next biggest biggest one What is it bnb 53 Okay b 37 doge 52x actually if we take a look at the top 15, you know, which one's the best shiba inu so if your goal here is to You know make money and not change the world. I mean, that's just what it is There is the case for the s coins and that is just the truth. So Let me know what you think about that in the comment section And I will say and to finish this this up before we get to the the q&a There are some there's four things that would turn me bullish I don't see in the macro event how we're going to turn things around tomorrow I just don't see it. There's a couple of things one China lifts. It's uh, it's no covet or zero covet policy. You do that supply chains open up Prices can drop. I think uh fed can breathe a little easier and everything can work out also Ukraine war If we get some type of ceasefire that will actually boost things and then because the markets don't like uncertainty Also that the fed eventually pivots. I don't see that happening until they break something Because usually when the fed pivots then it goes down even more which is when we're going to get Which was probably when we'll have the recession 2023. I'm just guessing And then we'll go down even more. It'll be it'll be hurtful but it'll lead us to The next cycle which I amazingly if everybody calls for the for the recession in 2023 Isn't it funny how If we go in 2023 for a recession and we're all there, maybe the next year it kind of bleeds into that in 2024 What happens then to having what happens after that an all-time high but The one thing I think really has to happen. I think that is closer than anything is regulation Lemus Gillibrand responsible financial innovation act is just one of those things that are coming And you can bet your bottom dollar because of ftx and what they did More regulations on the way and hopefully we have the right voice before we get over-regulated. I am hopeful That the regulation comes down to the exchanges And not the cryptos themselves and of course people will say rob. You're so naive Of course, they're going to regulate crypto and and what it does and and so on and so forth Not for sure because if you if you regulate the centralized players You can do that quite easily and you can protect your constituents if you're a senator or a congressman or woman But if you're going to regulate the cryptocurrency and the defy Space good luck because you're just going to see it go by america and in other countries and that's okay with me So that's what we have So let me know what you think about that in the comments and now we'll get into a little q&a I know that was probably the This is going to be the worst The the least popular video I could possibly do is that but I just want to show everybody's the different sides If you got to take off take off you've been here for 18 minutes. I appreciate you come by on a saturday now Let's get into a little q&a. I'll answer all your burning questions. I'm sure a lot Then we'll go from there. If not adios. Thanks for stopping. All right. Let's get to it