 the Saturday livestream and today because everything is really heating up and of course when we have this this bullish mentality It's like it'll go up forever and of course in the bear market It seems like it'll never go up because it's all bear sentiment and of course we're shopping sideways is the exact same thing No one really Believes that we can get out of these trends until it actually happens and because of this It's important that we get prepared now for the point where we're going to have to sell at some point now There's a lot of different things and a lot of different Criteria that you can take into account as to what is best for you Some people are going to diamond hands and they're going to hold on forever Some people say there's no reason to get out of Bitcoin They're gonna give that to their kids and grandkids and just let it go and proliferate throughout Generations and eons of the people that are in their family and that's fine for other people They're like, you know what I got massive amount of bills and I got to pay some things That's great for like, you know moving into generational wealth right now Let me take a little profits just to make sure that I can actually pay my bills Feed my kids and to make sure that I can actually afford the mortgage before I get evicted So wherever you're at in that continuum, I'm not here to to tell you what to do I'm not a financial advisor. I'm definitely not your dad So you can do whatever you want to do but this is just my plan Moving forward and of course like I like I said the sentiment right now. We are at March 9th I believe correct me in the comments section 2024 we've got a Bitcoin having coming up in April 20th. Everything is ripping We just got passed another all-time high for Bitcoin just yesterday So this is the time to actually prepare and go from there. So what we're gonna do is there was a video I made about a year ago and I talked about when I'm going to sell between 15 80% of Bitcoin and my alts the indicators I'm gonna use and kind of move myself into that Criteria and actually that mentality and it's good to review this right now Because at some point you're gonna have an internal war with yourself and that internal war is gonna be it's gonna ask you Why are you selling right now when we did a 10x because if I did a 10x it can do a 50x and of course if you do a 50x Of course, I could do 100x and it was a hundred. You know where I'm going with this So at some point just Maybe think about taking some profits and kind of going from there So what I want to do is we're going to do a watch along this video is recorded about Again, roughly nine ten months ago And what I'll do is as we go through each section if there's a ton of different questions that come up in the chats I will stop the video and we'll answer those questions the best my abilities and we'll go from there So without further ado, let me get the right pieces here and here is the video Let's take a listen and again any questions that you have I'll go through those And let's do it Today we're gonna talk about selling crypto more specifically what I will be doing With my crypto when I'll be selling it and the percentage and the amounts I will be selling as things come up So before we get started we're gonna go over a lot of things We're gonna talk about what everybody should know first Which is how to define yourself as far as your trader type and know your exit we get some DCA examples I'm gonna talk about everything starts with Bitcoin the pie cycle top Then we're gonna get into altcoins and the things that we should be looking at which is the NEPL Mbrvz score risk assessments those types of things and lastly I will talk about exchanges and the mentality to get through this so first things first I want to share with you is a quick little story about the dogecoin millionaire And this was a great video from Graham Stephen and he wanted to talk to this gentleman dogecoin millionaire Who invested roughly a hundred eighty thousand dollars of his money into dogecoin when there wasn't really even a penny for quite a long time Quite a long time ago, and it went from less than a penny There's hundred eight thousand dollars turned into one point two million dollars in roughly 69 days Unfortunately as time went on he did the same mistake I think we all do which is believing that it's going to go to the moon And it's gonna go to a dollar or two dollars or whatever it was supposed to be and unfortunately as time went on His portfolio took a look and in not too much time. It was down to 323 thousand dollars. That is this was Shot about three months ago or so, and I'm sure it's down even more so today It is September 21st bitcoins around 19 thousand dollars If there is around 1200 and so on and so forth, so I want you to have this ingrained into your memory Because Graham gonna ask him a way I I can't go forward without mentioning that when I did this video Yeah, Bitcoin was 19 thousand dollars Remember that remember those days and ever was laughing at us because we were dollar-cost averaging like why are you doing that vaporware? That's the dumbest thing you ever do. You know, it's gonna go to zero Dan Pena says gonna go to zero Jim Cramer's always talking about It's going to zero. There's no reason why you should be actually messing in this Who's laughing now? Anyhow just wanted to make mention of that 19k. Those are good days. Let's uh, let's pull this together and Keep going Very simple question and he's gonna answer it and I want you to remember Exactly what he says just take a listen now. Do you regret holding so long? So yeah, that's another statement and actually that 1.2 million actually ballooned up to 3 million before it crashed down to Probably now around two hundred thousand dollars. So remember You can write it all the way up and you can write it all the way down The choice is up to you which leads to my next point Which is there's a phrase I use a lot which is time in the market is more important than timing the market And it's very true. I mean the longer that you're staying in usually the better is that's for a very Broad time horizon. I will just remind you that today. It's twenty twenty two September and we are looking at a Bitcoin price of 18,846 and as a reminder if you would have bought in December 2017 The 16th of December you would have been up 19,040 you would be down a thousand dollars right now on your Bitcoin again It's all about your time horizon and how long you want to Expand yourself out but along the way there may be opportunities to Take some profits nobody everyone broke taking profits and again, I can not stress this enough. I'm not a financial advisor I can't give you financial advice. You have to do your own research These are just the things that I am actually doing so we take a look here The thing that we really should be talking about is what everybody should know first Which is before selling or anything you need to find you have to define your trader type And you need to know your exit before your entry what I'm talking about is this There are many various types of traders out there and investors. There are scalpers Those just take seconds and they move very quickly day traders minutes to hours You have swing traders which you could wait they could open up a position way days Position traders could wait weeks or months or then you got somebody like myself is like a cycle trader Which takes years to play out now I kind of Go between position trader and a cycle trader Because I wait for quite a long time to unpack my bags as they were and then also If you want to just do a quick down and dirty example of profit This is the most basic one you could probably think of so let's just say you want to and you want to know your exit before You get into this would be an example. You say, okay, I'm gonna buy Bitcoin at whatever it is $10,000 Bitcoin doubles its price to 20. I'm gonna sell about 11k Which is my initial position plus a little bit of profit and I'm gonna let the $9,000 that I have into Bitcoin Just ride maybe it goes up to a million dollars and becomes the reserve world currency And I am loaded for the rest of my life maybe but that is just one example And I will tell you this for the examples that I've used the things that I've done this was my exit strategy last cycle and It was just taking fractals just taking a look at where things had gone in the past and Extrapolated those numbers to see where they could potentially go and some were wrong and some were pretty pretty solid on now Ethereum was wrong I thought I was going to $10,000 and I would dollar cost average in and dollar cost average out and Unfortunately, I was only able to pick up the very first point and so along the way but not too much chain link It was actually right. I thought it was it would go to $35. I actually went to $51 and the problem with this one I think everybody knows is that Unfortunately, I had a plan in place, but I didn't stick to my plan and if I would have stuck to my plan I would have made a lot more money on selling off chain link because right now it's worth way less than $26 Bitcoin again, I thought I'd go to $150,000. That didn't happen. Also EOS that did not happen I thought I'd go to 30 that was a bad one Cardano. I thought I'd go to $30. It did roughly around, you know I think it was the all-time high was 297 there number third superior and then theta I actually got that one right. I thought I'd go to $10 and I went to $14 But so that these are just the examples I used before but I think I think there's a better way and I put that video out not too long ago And you can find this on the website at Dante's crypto Which I took a look at cycle top callers the pie cycle top NUP all time and risk and also the cycle bottom mbrvz to your ma well multiple and reserve risk to just get a better assessment of what could be considered the actual cycle top But there's one more thing we really need to answer ourselves And that is that what kind of investor are you because you have to understand that The more conservative you are the safer you are but maybe not as great as returns And this is the thing that I always struggle with So as an ultra conservative type of investor that could be you this is how I started out 100 of everything I bought was in bitcoin and that was it. I didn't do any all coins nothing like that as time went on I got a little less Ultra conservative and just a conservative and I'd have bitcoin about 90 of my portfolio than 10 was ethereum And then you could go down that rabbit hole and go well I'm gonna be a risk taker and I'm gonna go 50 of bitcoin and maybe 40 the top 20 and then 10 could be 30 to number 1000 of the cryptos and get really Down there or you could be just a total degenerate and just go okay bitcoin I know is the safest one but I just want a sliver and everything else will be in like the number 200 to 3000 s coins and things like that So when you look at these remember that if you're getting into these investments, uh, the risk versus reward It is a lot of these are very risky, but the reward are high But then it carries you have the chance of losing everything and before you knock any of the degenerate moves I will just say this we have two channels. Uh, this is digital asset news The other one is dan d gen and so far they've done so well So genso kishi everdome fame and sweat coin when you look when we got into these prices, uh, genso kishi was 0.01 Uh, about a penny and a half all the time. I was a dollar 62 not too bad Everdome fame sweat coin so on and so forth. So the thing that you have to remember is When I'm getting into these these cryptos What is my risk versus reward? So the best way to to uh, Take a look at that is to show you through a website called dca btc.com and also dca dash cc.com dca btc It only shows you bitcoin. I'm just going to show you a quick example here So let's just say oh for example that you have 100 dollars And uh, you want to purchase 100 dollars with a bitcoin Every week and if you do that for the last six months You would be down almost a percentage. Uh, just buying things because the market's awful But let's just back this up for a second. Let's just go over the last. I don't know five years five years And we go five years when we accumulated And in actuality if you would have done that 100 dollars every week You would get 26,100 dollars your total value For bitcoin would be 105,000 And which is not too bad. However at the top it would have been 162,000 depending on when you actually sold So that's just that's just bitcoin itself. What I want to show you of course is that's pretty good It's a very safe safer play in the most uh, Volatile market, but what if you do that with ethereum? That's why I like this website dca dash cc I'm going to do this let's do 100 dollars again And we do that on a weekly basis And I picked uh, january 12, 2018 Which was one of its highs back in the last cycle to today and i'm going to click on calculate And you can just see right here that yeah It was a little bit riskier ethereum being what it is Uh, but actually if you take a look at it for the at the peak You would have invested 20,000 dollars just like we did with bitcoin But the balance in fiat or cash would be 339,000. Let's take it one step further Let's go to cardano the same thing. Let's let's change this up. Let's put 100 dollars Every week from the same time from january 12, 2018. It's the timber 19th 2022 and if we do that and then of course we calculate We're going to see that in all honesty We could have done pretty well And if we go up here to the very tippy top, we would have invested 19,100 Somewhere around there and we would have had 706,480 dollars Which is not bad for five years of work at the very top now It's worth much less and the problem that we have is people Always talk about diamond hands and never selling and they're just going to give this all to their their grandkids and its generational wealth Look If you want to do that, that's fine. I'm not here to judge you or tell you what to do again I'm not a financial advisor however when I think about these things I think that's not what I'm going to do and these are not my goals the things that I do Or what I do and of course you can take this information and roll it into your research to do your best thing for whatever Best suits you as far as investments. So I also when I take a look at this When everything goes up you start to think oh, I just need to keep going up and going up because that's what happens in markets, right? We'll know however There is an opposite thought process, which is This is uh from cmbc and he talks about how the chart below shows how if you invested $10,000 Into the s and p 500 index for a 20 year period Between 1999 and 2018 This is how it would have performed if you had just left it there never touched it Your $10,000 would be a whopping $30,000, which is pretty good for doing absolutely nothing I'll be honest with you and the average annual return is 5.6 percent but If you would have just missed 10 of the best days 10 of the best rallies that were out there Your value would be less than half Of what it is. So your average annual return It's about 2 percent miss the 20 best 20 best days negative 0.3 Miss 30 best days and so on and so forth. So again when we talk about time in the market is more important than timing That is true the thing that we have to remember is that at some point We're going to need to sell at least for me. That's not for you and I will just Finish up with this those example. I gave you with cardano an ethereum at bitcoin And even this one with s and p things look pretty rosy. Remember It's still a risky market no matter where what you get into here's two examples a dash assault So these are two crypto projects that were pretty prevalent in the last 2017 Bull run you can see dash did an amazing job of going from 11. Gosh three four dollars all the way to 1,000 almost 1,500 dollars And then of course, what did it do after that? Not much at all And then off we go and that's absolutely nothing and there's a worse example here, which is salt salt was a lending platform did very well sec got involved and there was a lawsuit and We was almost at 15 dollars and what has it done after that? Not too much. So remember things that you do Could be extremely risky depending on what you get into so having said all that and the warnings and things like that Let's talk about how everything starts With bitcoin the pie cycle top so if you're not familiar We did a pretty in-depth video about the pie cycle top again find that it's dandy's crypto And when we took a look at it Pie cycle top was created in 2019 retroactively or retrospectively It could call the top almost to a t And then it almost called the top in 2021 a little bit off, but that's just how it is So what I want to take a look at was well, how Accurate was it and of course if you're not familiar pie cycle top used the 111 day moving average And I newly created multiple of the 350 moving average Which is 350 times 2 When the 111 day moving average moves up and crosses the 350 day We see that it coincides with the price of bitcoin peaking and I just thought about that I go maybe Let's see how accurate actually was so here's the pie cycle top and how it's called the top and every one of the Cycles and just for reference only talking about cycles I mean the four-year cycles for bitcoin everything starts with a halving The first one was that 2012 you have a halving and you get an all-time high And there's a dip and there's a reset and the same thing happened again And 2016 there's a halving 2017 all-time high a dip and a reset and then coincidentally the same thing happened in 2020 We had a halving all-time high and we're seeing a major dip and probably on the reset in 2023 But I think we'll be back on track in 2024 25 26 27 These things going to work themselves out. So when we take a look at again the pie cycle top The first one the first cycle It actually was very close not perfect, but pretty close. So you can see here that This point lower part here where it has the price of 141 dollars That's what it retroactively retrospectively took a look at and go that was the top but actually it wasn't It was 214 dollars. So that was the first one the second one is even more strange You had it called it out at 1090 when in actuality it was 1184 so pretty darn close and this was the only time You had a double top in roughly the same time period the same cycle in 2013 So it did in april and it did in december, which is actually let me rephrase that it said in november 29 2013 was the pie cycle top and then in April 2013 was the pie cycle top, which is very interesting because in 2021 the pie cycle top was in april 11th 2021 but the actual top Was in november 2021 just something to think about so Second one now here comes the third one in 2017. It nailed it. Absolutely nailed it and uh, there is no higher It's hit it at 19,326 or roughly around there So, uh, I think no one could fault you for selling a little hundred dollars off here in there And that's a good one and then the fourth one, of course, like we just talked about april 11th 2021 The pie cycle top called the top at 60 148 when the actual top was november 8th 2021 at 67 492 so again This are these are still good numbers But you have to remember this everything starts with the bitcoin pump and then alt pump so I took a look at the historical snapshot of 11th of april 2021 and bitcoin the price was 60,000 ethereum was 2100 Finance coin was 525 xrp dollar 36 and so on and so forth and what I did was I took a look at the top ones and just compared what the pie cycle top top price points were Compared to what they actually were on different dates. So bitcoin of course april 11th Was 60,000 the real one was a never made and it was at 67,000 So 11 11 percent difference in the top So even if you would have sold here, you'll only be 11 away from the top not too bad ethereum You were off quite a bit actually by april 11th It was 21 57 november 8th 45 that was 55 percent Binance coin was only 22 off not too bad xrp 24 percent cardona was way off April 11th was 127 and actually peaked 296. That's a 60 percent difference However, polka dot like coin and uniswap were pretty darn close 23 34 30 and the biggest one that was the biggest outlier was solana. It was 2793 of the pie cycle price The real all-time high price 259 on November 6th. So that would have been an issue. However This is what I always think about or i'm starting to think about a lot more now, which is dca in and dca out I'm on a dollar cost average in like we all know everybody talks about on youtube just about ad nauseam But I think that's just half of the equation you have to dollar cost average out And what i'm going to do and I hit that pie cycle top on the next one because we had a long way to go We have a very very long way to go when that 111 day moving average crosses over I will be selling 50 percent Of all of my crypto and i'll tell you exactly why later I'll be selling 50 percent of all my crypto. Does that mean that I will miss out on some on some tops Some various ones. Yes, like uh, maybe a theorem chrono or something that's that isn't even in the top 100 I could definitely be be missing out, but that's okay Because it's all about averages. So i'll be selling 50 percent Of my crypto and then i'll be waiting for some different signs and i'll sell on a 20 percent and then 10 percent later down the road I will not hit all the tops and my goal is to hit 60 to 80 percent of the tops I will not hit 100 percent. I will not buy at the absolute bottom just doesn't work like that And it's going to take a lot of pressure off me last time. I think it was just dumb luck Of what I got to I think this time i'm going to take a little bit more Look at some indicators, but remember this Everything starts after the bitcoin pie cycle top, which we're going to play into right now So once again when the pie Okay So there's a lot to take in I understand I get you But I just wanted to just pause for a second just to go over some questions because uh, they were in the comments And I thought this would be perfect timing Going from there. So Federico He says why is everybody making videos on when to sell cycle hasn't even started people that are just checking this out Feel that they are late and yes, they are for maximum gains, but they can still be massive So the reason why we're talking about it here I don't know why everybody else is talking about it probably to do the same thing that I think is is a good idea It's to get that preparation It's like doing anything if you're going to a if you're an athlete you're going to a sporting event You have to drill and drill and drill and get to as close as you possibly can to that Scenario and put yourself into it as lifelike as you possibly can and I think investing is no different because I Am under the assumption that people are going to talk about well rob. This is a supercycle You don't understand everything's going to keep going up Just like what happened with gold after the etf in 2004 and I'm like well to be fair The etf for gold during that time frame it actually did a little bit of a pump But then for like eight months it was pretty flat It wasn't like a big thing and then of course it took off But of course there were dips along the way Especially talking about the great recession 2008 and 2009 There was a time there and of course it was supposed to be a hedge against inflate but Regardless of all those things the reason why we're talking about this today Is because I want you to have options and if your option is I'm just going to diamond hands Salt and dash and Shiba Inu or whatever you're doing and that's the only option I have I think that's a that's not a great play I'm just trying to show people what I'm doing and then of course they can pick on and go You know what some of that makes sense for the other part and maybe not so much and that's what makes things great And uh, Mr. Ahia says would be quite cool to see a dollar cost averaging out tool We're going to get into dollar cost averaging out in a little bit, but This video was done nine ten months ago And one of the things I talked about was dcacc.com the website When now with mostly what I use is ben's website and especially for the dca tool But did you know and this is let me pull this up so you can see it correctly That ben has a section On his site Which does exactly that it's a dca exit strategy and what it takes a look at is it takes a look at the time and risk bands And based on what that is Because well, let's just pull this up. Shall we so macro dashboard Oh, excuse me crypto dashboard If we take a look at bitcoin as far as like time and risk bands just because these risk bands, of course These will change just as time goes on The riskiest 1.0 point Will dictate that bitcoin could be at $118,000. That's the riskiest. I think it could potentially go past that I'm not going to give you a price prediction because I think price predictions are quite worthless And I've said that many a time on this channel But right now as far as risk levels were at 0.715 at 68,000 last pretty good 60,000 275 But if you go over to tools dca out strategies And if you use that strategy and say, okay hold on dca exit strategies, I should say and you say, okay Let's use the price of the projected of the risk band to project the peak price is 113. Let's just say Let's just update that to 118,000, right? And where do you want to sell at your risk band? Do you want to sell at the beginning like 0.7? Or 0.8 or 0.9 or 1.0? Do you want to be in the middle like 0.75 or 0.85? Or do you make the top which would be 8, 9 and then 1? Let's just go for the middle And what it does is this it says look once you get to these risk bands And you can do it conservatively moderate aggressive holder or yolo or ceo trend quote. It's funny Let's say at 0.85 You're a holder Actually, no, let's just say a yolo and you're gonna wait till 0.85 at that point Maybe you sell 33 and then we get to 0.9567 percent or maybe you flip back and forth Maybe when we hit 0.85 you say, you know what that's what i'm gonna sell 60 and that's i'm gonna 30 But you can pick here where you think you're like, I don't have the cojones for that I'm gonna go for conservative. I'm gonna go moderate whatever else and it just kind of shows you you can use that with bitcoin Let's go for let's go for eith Yeah, I don't think the protective price is going to be that let's use current Let's use projected Let's refresh this because I don't think it's gonna 118,000. That's weird Let's just use this 6,000 right What's the same thing? Where do you want to go? at what's risk bands and of course the risk bands you can find those over here And if you're curious because I actually am now, what's the risk bands for wow 0.75? At 1.0 eith is at 8,737 so take that with a grain of salt That's what it is I like that tool because it kind of takes some of the guess works out And if you're a fan of dcaing in you can dc out using that tool if you want to check that out The dca tools are 100 free, but that dca exit strategy that is a paid Service on his site, but I think it's at the lower tiers on the big deal Uh, did you know assets? Did you did you know assets? That's a good one? Ask the question you may cover this but a hard lesson to learn is setting aside portions of gains for taxes Instead of reinvesting it all while chasing gains and that's true And uh, I think it's someone else said the same thing trumps Trumps a jump The names taking profits and pay 30 percent in tax depends So and we just talked about this yesterday. We just had david kemmer. He is the Founder and co-ceo or CEO and co-founder of coin ledger And what we took a look at is in different countries of different things, right in germany If you're holding for over a year, you're not paying capital gains tax If you're in portugal, you're doing pretty good if you're in dupay, you're not paying anything if you're in portorico You're not paying any capital gains tax unless it's crypto that you brought over like myself And I will be paying taxes on those and also it depends on because we're in a progressive tax It starts off at and depending if you're if you're single married and you're filing single or jointly Or if you are married filing as a single Participant or if you have kids or whatever else it starts at different threshold So if you make over 250,000 that's when things start. So if you're below that your tax For capital gains may be only 10 it just depends and we talked about that yesterday. I'll link that video on there from there, but Yeah, it's a good point to say But uh, try to put things away, but if you're having gains You know, like, you know what? I like these gains. I'm going to take a little bit out and stick there which You could actually say well, I need these gains for I have a massive credit card that I got to pay You know for these kids to get their college education. I got to pay for blah, blah, blah I got to pay for this new kidney whatever So those are a good lessons to have and of course that would just take care of budgeting But yeah, it's a good thing to remember a good thing to bring to bring up And pager says michael sailor vice by the top forever. It's kind of work And this is even though we're talking today about selling You know that you'll never get off this merry-go-round, right? Like uh, like it's like that scene from the godfather try to get out. They keep pulling you back in you are never for most of you And me and myself, we're never going to get off this this train We're going to take profits We're going to try to do the things that we want to do with it. We have to you know, we have bills We want to pay up this too if that but at some point if we stick it just in The euro or we stick it in pesos or we stick it in the dollar or whatever else it is You know because of inflation Money is not working for you You need to do something in some way to make money work for you And that usually is assets and there's no harder asset than bitcoin. That's out there. So again To sell or not to sell for me I know that when I take these gains and there was a question here from ben What do you take your profits into it's a good question? I will put a portion of those into stablecoins Probably usdc and I think if you want to think that all stablecoins are created equal Go take a look at usd from luna and have and talk to all those people that had that collapse on them So it'll be some in usdc some in cash and then there's some in some other type of assets We'd like to get into which would be more real estate and land and stuff like that so It's just a little piecemeal of things before we take it to the next step But if you have any more questions put them in the comment section and we'll go from there So now let's uh, let's finish up this section and then we'll come back and we'll uh Do more of the q&a. Let me Share the tab the right way. There we go And we're off my cycle top hits I'm going to take a look at not just the pie cycle top indicator because that is the first one I'm going to look at But there's various ones. I'm definitely going to look at and that is the Net unrealized profit and loss. I'm going to also take a look at historic risk levels mvrvz score and the well multiple Just to get a bearing now I don't want to do too much analysis and get paralysis by analysis I just want to look at these and go from there to see if I'm in the right ranges again I'm not here to time the absolute top at a hundred percent or time the absolute bottoms I'm just trying to get close as I possibly can so retrospectively if we look back at We we know the pie cycle top the top was uh, april 11th 2021 So if I was to on that day take a look at the n upl Let me just blow this up here and what I like about this these are This is from looking at bitcoin and these charts are available for free. They're high quality I love to use them first of all because they're free and they're great and it makes things very simple Right when you're in the pink range, it's probably a good idea to exist when everybody's greedy Probably a good idea to take a little bit of profits Maybe and also in the orange part as well Optimus anxiety when it gets down to the green area probably a decent time to think about Accumulating we talked about this at length on the channel But if we take a look here, we can see this expanded view and we can take a look all the way back to 2010 and uh go forward so what I'm going to do here is of course We know that the pie cycle top was uh april 11th So I will zoom back in so you can see it in all its glory and just take a look at Where we're at so again if I was looking at the pie cycle top and I think okay, April 11th Yeah, the 111 day moving average crossed over so this could be the time to sell Maybe I'll take a look at the nupl just to make sure and just so everybody's on the same page Uh, and again, we we covered this at length on the last video have a plan But just to make sure everybody's here when we take a look at uh the nupl The indicator is derived from market value and realized value market value is the current price of bitcoin Multiply by the number of coins in circulation realize value takes the price of each bitcoin when it was last Moved so you've got some whales that haven't moved them for a quite some time When bitcoin was a hundred bucks so by subtracting realized value for market value. We calculate unrealized profit and losses Unrealized profit loss estimates a total profit loss paper losses in bitcoin held by investors or profits So again as time goes on and prices fluctuate and you can see this is a pretty good one to take a look at So again, if I'm taking a look at april 11th I'm in the orange zone which so I could say okay. Well, it's not down here and it's not in this uh, Freebie zone or point of no return capitulation hope Optimization and uh, yeah, this could be one now. I'm all the way not into the red zone But we haven't seen that for quite some time So if I was looking at this I'm like, okay, that's the second indicator It looks like it might be a good chance For me to start to take profits also If we take a look at the historic risk levels now, this is from ben's Website into the cryptiverse and it's a it's a great website links in the description. It is a paid website But it's worth it. I'm going to tell you why Because we take a look at these risk levels. It's another indicator which could say, okay This looks quite interesting. So let me reset the zoom again Again the risk levels as they go up the higher they go the more risky it is So it's a good idea to think about taking profits when we start to peak especially above the 0.9 reference range I think we can all agree there. It's only been one two three four five points in history In roughly 12 years So again, if I want to take a look at I want to zoom in to this area Around the uh april 2021 Where are we here? So february june march april 11th I'm actually at the bitcoin risk level is 0.7 almost zero point eight again back here. It looks like it was pretty risky. However, we didn't see the bicycle top yet Even though it was a risky, but it's high enough for me to say. Okay. It's not below five. It's not below four It's pretty risky again. That would be a check for me to move on another one to be the mvrvz score So I take a look at this and the mvrvz It's a bitcoin chart uses blockchain now So then if my periods when bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued It takes the the market value price of bitcoin multiply the number of coins To the realized value rather than taking the current price of bitcoin Roy's value takes the price of each book on his last moved again And the z score is a standard deviation that pulls out all the extremes So again, if we take a look here, let me just blow this up so we can see it. I'm looking for again april february again february was it was a good time, but it wasn't uh It wasn't too great to that time. I think we're we're playing around 48 50 000 so it could have been okay But uh down here march Where are we march march march? april april 11 So the z score again above five not in the orange zone So I'd say well that doesn't really tick What I uh thought I would but I've got a couple other indicators. That's not bad And lastly, I'll take a look at the poll multiple just to be sure And the poll multiple looks at the supply set of bitcoin, uh, as far as miners and the revenue It's calculated by by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins by the 360 by the moving average It uses the upper red band on the chart to show when minor revenues and in usd terms are significantly higher Okay, so again, if we take a look at Let's see Right around here And we go to the april points April 11th and almost in that uh red band right there So I would say yes So again, I took at the poll multiple which is just for proof of work for minor things like that mvrvc score Not so much the risk level. I would say yes n upl and of course the picycle top Is the one that uses it so at this point I would say yes I would have sold if I would have done it correctly and this is what I'll be doing moving forward So that would take care of The part for bitcoin now the next question that you may have is well, that's great for all these things, but what about For the alts because it's a little bit different As we just just saw we give you the same exact thing and the way that we can do that Is using ben's website So did you know that picycle top 11 a moving average Cross over 350 day moving average times two Can be done with ethereum. It can be done with finance coin xrp cardano solana No, all these things and it can be done in one place on ben's website into the cryptiverse so Again, we want to take a look at all of them. So let's take ethereum. Yeah, there we go ethereum So the picycle top For ethereum doesn't really work out too hot honestly because it's telling you that it crossed over You're looking at 21st of may 2017 when the eth price is 148 But in all honesty it went to over almost $1,500 and the last one I did Not too bad 7th of march again 17 almost $2,000. So it's still be 50 off. That's not too great So again, what I would do is I would say well because remember Everything starts with picycle top and bitcoin shooting up to the stratosphere and then come the alt So what I would do is I would just wait and see well Maybe we'll take a look at the nupl. Let me change this to ethereum And what I want to do Actually, let me reset the zoom you'll notice here for the nupl Over on a look looking at bitcoin It has on the right hand side it has the bitcoin price on the left hand side It has percentages as far as how much it's gone up or down And this of course will be 100 of max range or where we were at the very very tippy top And of course negative almost 50 or 42 percent down here. However, take a look over here for bends for the nupl It's a little bit different We've got the market cap over here and the nupl ratio which goes up to positive 0.5 and down to negative three okay We can see as we zoom out that The baseline levels around Well, of course we have zero here and it goes down pretty pretty negatively across the board But if we take a look here again, all we want to take a look is we want to see around after April of 2021 And what happened after there? So if I was me and I would take a look at this again I can't take a look forward because I would be looking at this in real time So let's just say I'm back in april 11th right here at 0.479 And I think if I look back I say well the top last or beforehand was 0.6 So maybe I want to get a little closer Maybe 0.55 or somewhere around there because maybe that's not it because I know That bitcoin tops and then the alt start the top so anything after april 11th I'd probably say it might be a good time. So let's see here 0.51 maybe not Right here 5152 so right around here. What's this? The 3rd of may 2021 0.5 I'd probably want to get rid of 50 of my theorem at this point. So 0.56 That was a 3rd of may 2021 if we take a look here I don't know a third of may Where would that be? Not bad 3,500. So we missed it by about a thousand roughly And again, I will never hit the top But I think it's a good way just to take a look at things of of where we're at And go from there again Once I get 50% if it goes up some more, let's say it's a cross another, you know, it goes up another 10 20 percent well I can sell 20% later because I have things in reserves. I will never sell all my crypto But I'll probably sell a big job So that is that part and also if we take a look at mvrvz score Let's see what that would tell us. Well again, we're at 2021 and this is bitcoin. I need to change that to theorem Not that right here. Let's zoom in So well, this looks tasty See this one right here again same thing 13th of march I'm looking at these at these points if I'm looking at anything above four This is all the good times to to sell Again taking a look at different charts and different graphs just to get an idea of where I'm potentially at Historical risk levels. Let's take a look at eth And Let's blow this up a little better so we can see it So again above 0.9 is a good time. When do I get 0? Okay 10th of may the same thing And yeah 3,400 3,500 again not going to time the top, but it's okay. And then lastly well the Pwell multiple Would have worked When it was proof of work, but now it's proof of stake So that just kind of goes to the wayside same thing with cardano and so on so forth so again You can use anything that you want to but it's putting together These different charts just to give you an idea of where things are going to say, okay Okay, that looks like uh, it's a good time to potentially sell that looks like a good time And over time and using uh multiple pieces of data You can make the best decision uh for yourself again This is not financial advice is the things that i'm going to be doing very closely As we move forward and there was one last piece that I forgot to talk about which is this I believe in the four-year cycles like we talked about uh at length however That doesn't mean that this will happen in 2025. It may happen in 2024 or even 2023 or maybe even 2026 or seven I don't know but The thing is you have to be aware of because you have to be conscious of the Changes that could potentially take form Don't get married to one idea like I did in the past and say like it has to happen at this It has to happen at this way Just take a look at the data and when the data changes you change for the things that I see right here These are things that I will still look for bicycle top mbrvz Well multiple well for bitcoin and of course the risk factors if we can take a look at all those things I think we can get a better understanding of when to potentially sell now. I'll leave me to my last two points Which are exchanges and the mentality so uh real quick There's a link in the description or if you watch this on dan teachers crypto It'll be a link underneath this video which says uh the exchanges here the exchanges that I use if you want to use any of them for Purchasing said crypto and delta cost averaging. I used four. I'm in america So uh, it's what I got ftx kraken coinbase and coup coin And then lastly I just want to talk to you real quick about the mentality To remain calm is a superpower Bruce Lee said that and it's holds true today And when you see in my videos and you see that we lose 20% or 50% of whatever I don't know whatever it is of the day I'm pretty much the same way i'm right now I just try to stay calm because I know that this is a national progression For some people it's a bit more difficult and for those people I'd recommend This website Which it is the daily stoic dot com and the thing was great about that It's free and you just sign up right here sign up for the daily email And it'll give you some some perspective from some of the greatest philosophers In the entire world has ever known throughout history marcus aurelius epictetus all the different greek philosophers that's Really have guided me a long way and here's the last This was the last email I got which was today and of course they get they get every day and tell me if this doesn't Maybe Bring true with you temperance temperance I'm not gonna keep going with that if you want to check out daily stoic. It's great and of course it'll keep you kind of You know ground it a little bit So there's a lot of things done pack. So let's unpack those so everybody. Thanks for stopping by do appreciate it Now let's go over to some q&a and go from there So let's go in reverse one of those things you might have noticed that in the last sector there. I never I know There was four exchanges that I used you noticed It was coup coin It was crack and coin base and ftx and at that point I used ftx But one of the things that uh, this was made during the time before ftx actually collapsed But one of the things is that I learned along the way is Is that even though we talk about all these things and how great it is and of course, you know What we could make it's not about how much you make it's how much you keep So all the things that we say today if I hadn't Had really bought into the mentality that everything must be taken off an exchange You know much. I would have lost on ftx already lost in voyager incelsius I don't want you to go down that path. There is a link in the description It's called the top mistakes. I've made in crypto watch that video for some reason the video We just watched has roughly about 100,000 and the top mistakes has like 20,000 I don't know why I think people would should watch the other one So then going in reverse a couple of uh, there was some some let's see People were saying current time current time frame show the show that it's all pointless. We don't show the current time frame Okay, so we'll go through the current time frames about these different indicators I'm just going to tell you right now all the indicators that we just talked about nothing's really telling me to sell That's how I see it So let me stop this. Let's pull up some data and so you can go through this again All right, so let's go here So we talked about the historic risk levels right and this is for the total market cap Again, this is only on ben's website in the cryptiverse things will change as time moves on But again when we start talking about time frames or risk levels, we're talking about 0.85 to 0.9 That's what I'm looking at right now the total market cap the market cap risk for everything is 0.737 Yeah, we've had a nice run, but it's not that big yet Bitcoin as far as risk levels again is only 0.715. I think eath is grinding up there pretty quickly 0.75 Again, that didn't tell me to sell Bnb is very low risk levels 0.513 and on down the line you can go Now we take a look at the nbrvz score right nbrvz is a it's you can find this on look into bitcoin.com Link in the description. It's 100 free It's the current price of bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation Right now. I think we have what 19 and a half 19.7 million correct me in the comment section Instead of taking the current price of bitcoin realize value takes the price of each bitcoin when it was last moved It then adds up all the individual prices and takes an average So right now like I talked about I love this website because It makes things easy for me it makes things easy for everybody when it goes in this area in the green It's not too risky and you think yourself. Maybe I should pick some of that up And then see if I want to buy some so then here we are Because it's like that. Oh, yeah so this would be September 20, I don't know if I make it to this but December 4th 2018 I don't know if you can find the price, but I'm pretty sure it was pretty darn low and again over here From july 2022 to december 20, january 3rd 2022 would have been great time to pick it up I'm pretty sure that's when bitcoin was around 15 000 and now look where we're at We're not even at the four heck. We're not even at the three So I know people are like things have really rallied. I don't really Data's telling me though something different and if we take a look and this is color-coded by risk levels and again What I wanted to show you is the 0.9 to 1.0. Let me just give her this one This is when those came off February 21 March of 2020 not too bad December 17th 2017 and 2013 over here Where are we? Are we at 0.8 yet? No Are we at 0.7 yet? Yes 0.715 and again, we can do the same thing Let's take uh, solana Solana is heating up and it's only at 0.7 again Not telling me to sell same thing with ethereum. It's just color-coded So 0.753. How about this one? Net unrealized profit and losses. This is derived from the last one we took a look at mvrv zscore Market value is bitcoin to you know times of circulating price or coins in circulation Realized value takes the price of each bitcoin when it's last moved and it needs to track the realized value from market value It gets you unrealized profit and losses again colors This would have been a good time to buy in green I don't yeah, no, let's see september 2022 november december same thing and right now We got into this little maybe a little hot area But only at 60 percent. I'm waiting for up here And I could be wrong and then the big one. This is pie cycle top. What does that show us? Well, it shows We're not close So let me reset this So the pie cycle top Oh, let me change it to 24 hours So it did a great job in 2013 and again pie cycle top is retro retroactively looking retrospective analysis And it did great in 2013. It did great in 2017 Again, it didn't do a fantastic job But it did okay 63 000 for april 13th And again, that's when the 350 day moving average times two Goes over the 111 day moving average. How far are we? We're pretty far We're far enough Bar for the same as we were back in october. So again, this is not telling me to sell anything yet. And that's The current time frame. So there's that piece and And I just wanted to share some some insights because I learned a lot from people in the comment section. I'm not a know-it-all by any means stretch the imagination Rehealio says this I just hold bitcoin and ETH Others are speculation take profit pay taxes and buy more bitcoin 10 percent percent. What a great play. I mean, good job Uh cc says i'm behind this vid. What is he doing to the tldr version? Basically? Yeah, i'm not selling right now. That's it Let's see Pedro asked can you cover in a video the dangkuna upgrade for ethereum? Will it be impactful? It'll be very impactful for layer twos Guy over at coin bureau did a fantastic job on two videos on the dangkuna upgrade I highly recommend you watch that video because if I did it, uh It wouldn't be near as comprehensive And then logan i've been buying all year great job man I mean, that's that's tough to do But i'm selling a property next week Where would I allocate at this point in the market? I don't know but I mean For me like we just sold a condo a couple weeks. We talked this before And uh, what I did was because my portfolio is still over 70 of bitcoin I just took that lump sum and I put roughly 70 in the bitcoin again, and then I divided up among alt coins ethereum and the cardanos and the solanas and some Other layer ones the chain links the stuff like that and some then I kind of gone down like the three Three percent to five percent got into some ai degenerate plays and then some of the stuff that I put on dan de jen And it just kind of went like that To me personally, I think it's too risky to say like let's say you get a windfall like logan, right? He sells his property for a hundred grand. I think it's For me, it wouldn't make sense to go. You know what? That fetch ai is looking pretty sweet pretty hot I'm gonna put a hundred thousand dollars into fetch ai or maybe I just I say i'm gonna put 70 000 or 80 000 to fetch ai and some other ai stuff For me, I'm not at that point where I'd want to do that. But again, everybody's different So but it's good things to it's a mental exercise And then dez has got some good insights imagine You took profit living in egypt and this is another thing that has been Spoken to me which makes a lot of sense Imagine took profit living in egypt You lost 33 of the value of your fiat money in three days Third world country is working mysterious ways And there's a there's always a caveat to the things that we talk about right when I say Nobody goes nobody. Everyone broke taking profits. Actually, that's not true If you did that in just like what dez said in egypt if you do that in venezuela if you do that in turkey Taking profits actually is the worst thing you could possibly do So little caveats there if you're in a first world country Maybe it's not so bad and don't think like america is like immune to it We've got inflation. Of course the money printers are gonna go back on pretty soon So we'll see Dave you says never selling bitcoin. It's probably gonna work out pretty well for you actually Because let's be honest. I think Bitcoin's gonna do great there was a video From larry fink and I'll probably talk about this tomorrow On the show And basically what I said was He was on fox news And basically the things that he said in this interview Which was only like a minute or two minutes if you want to watch it. Just follow me on x I said if everybody knew what larry just said And understood what he talked about with bitcoin The price of bitcoin would be between a million and 10 million dollars Because it makes sense the problem is getting people to understand and that's why I think bitcoin can go higher much much higher Not going to give you a price prediction But it's because of the lack Of knowledge and the people that want to actually do the research and really sit down understand That's the thing that really hinders us So Anyhow, it's a good point. Dave. I just wanted to bring that. All right Life of rice is personally. I don't want to sell any bitcoin ever That's going to go on a trust which is pretty great, especially if you got kids and grandkids We're the same thing I just cycle trade the good alts and profits way for bitcoin to crash You know what else does that pretty well is simon dixon He says my whole job is just to I'll get into alts and I'll invest in these things But the whole thing is to have more bitcoin than I had at the beginning of the month Let's see Mori says physical silver is a great buy right now It is a great buy and I think I know like some of the precious metal people hate us. I don't understand why I own gold and silver And it's in my Roth IRA over at itrust. I just don't understand why They're like that I'm not gonna say that guy's name. He's a big gold bug Uh, I don't understand why he's on a board with us. It doesn't make any sense to me But yeah, I mean I think precious metals are it should be a part of everybody's portfolio Now, whether you want to do that or not is it's true Silver does taste funny. Simon Dixon's a good man. Yeah, we all like him Tess says, yeah, fetch a has a 14 x since it's low bitcoin dominance. It's a funny thing because I still believe that the reason why this market our crypto market goes up so much It's because of there's really a couple of reasons really it's it's greed It's speculation and it's hype as I call it shag speculation hype and greed And that's what usually pushes the markets up There's a great video over by over guy over at coin bureau It's in his his his paid site over at coin bureau club needed a great video It's about 25 minutes long about fetch AI and it really opened my eyes to What it is and what's going on and because of that video is like, you know what? I don't know what fetch will probably pump, but I'll still Sell some what is that noise? Hold on real quick. Sorry about that Um And yeah, and I actually sold some and I took some profits and I rolled them into bitcoin And of course the day what happens it goes up like 25 So like on some of these projects And maybe me and guy got both wrong a fetch I'll probably do great. Everything's gonna do great in the bull market, but for me. I'm like, I don't want to get too deep into that one Crypto chaos is When was this made you said he invested in their paying doge it went to 70 cents So he could have had like 100 million Or am I not seeing that in correct time frame doge millionaire? I searched hs1 billion Yeah, so I made that roughly nine or 10 months ago, but the doge coin millionaire had bought His doge like I think it was pre a penny from not mistaken and he put like a hundred thousand dollars into it And this was before even Elon musk was talking about it so he just He was the right place the right time with the right conviction And uh, just didn't sell and even if you follow like I follow doge coin millionaire on x he's pretty entertaining guy And he says on a couple different posts Especially lately. He's like I will definitely be taking profits and selling this cycle I will not hold all the way up and do a round trip Ah, I gotta tell you it's a good one let's see Crypto revolution is a scammer. All right Uh trump coin see there we go And that's I don't think we have any more questions. I think I And then how was Trump's I think he's out too fiducian didn't sell well Let that not be us. All right, everybody So we've been here for an hour and hopefully that helps you and it's not all encompassing of what you should do Just don't want to lay this out. So thanks to everybody for stopping by. I do appreciate like today's video Give it a thumbs up subscribe all that good stuff Everything's gonna accelerate as we go into the uh having but that's it for today. Enjoy your weekend And I'll see you on tomorrow's live stream. We should be a good one. Adios. Have a good day