 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisTrader.com. A Tuesday night edition. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good trading day. So, you know, when I recorded the weekend update, you know, I looked at after Friday's rally and I turned around and I said, well, you know, there's always a shot, right? There's always a shot that there could be a day to follow through. And I'll be honest with you, you know, as I was saying it out loud, I said, ah, you know, maybe 5%, maybe 10% chance. But, you know, again, and the most important part is we recorded the, when I recorded the weekend update, I said, look, look, as much as you think the market is going to do this, you always have to prepare for that. And that's kind of what we talked about over the weekend on Amazon. We talked, you know, about, what the hell did we talk about? It felt so long ago. But the more important part is, oh, Nvidia, Amazon, some Tesla. The most important part is you have to be ready. And that's kind of the whole thing is when you look at charts at night, and you have an overall spectrum of the totality, right? Not just one day, not just two days, isolated days, you want to kind of see the whole, right? The whole pie. You want to always look at the big picture and say, well, if the worst case scenario happens, am I prepared for that? And that's kind of what it was. But believe me, when I was recording the video and as I was doing the watch list for over the weekend, I really didn't think there was going to be a day-to-rally despite the title in the video. But again, at least the most important part is that we were prepared. And that's the magic number. And after last week's sell-off, you had about nearly 6% on the S&P. You had nearly 5% on the Dow and the Nasdaq. You kind of wanted to see what was going to happen next, right? I mean, you could see a very, very clear channel still to the downside bias. And I tweeted this out about half an hour, 40 minutes ago, I think. And again, don't get me wrong, the Bulls did a pretty good job. We'll talk about the pivots in a second. Really some pretty aggressive pivots today to the upside in technology. But at the end of the day, and this is kind of the most important part of what I'm about to say, at the end of the day, we all know the history of the last six months, right? We've been in a six-month downtrend. We lost a 50-day moving average. Of course, there's going to be one, two, three days that the market's going to rally, but always look at the big picture, and that's the point. Until we close above the 50-day moving average, and at this juncture, it's about 310, which is 20 points away from the queues, until we close above the 50-day moving average, reclaiming supply at the same time, just keep in mind risk is still off overnight. And that's the most important part. And Tesla was strong today all day, and we were talking about a potential overnight on Tesla. When I turn around, I go, let me see where it is by the close. And this thing sold off about 20 into the close, and I was like, look, it's just not worth... It's just really not worth the overnight exposure, considering you're going into the tidal wave. You're not going with it, and I think that's the name of the game. You want to kind of just take out as much exposure overnight as possible. The cool part about stocks like Tesla, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, all these stocks, they have massive ranges, especially Tesla. So when you're underneath supply, and that's exactly where we are underneath the 50-day moving average, and I'm referring to specifically for the overnight session, I don't think it's great to take on a lot of risk for the unknown. Yes, can you go long stocks and short some cues as a hedge against your overnights? Of course. But until we get above the 50-day moving average, remember, every single rally since this whole cycle began, for the exception of that three-week channel that started on 314, for the exception of that one week we can change, everything has been a sell right after the closing print. And I tell you, when I went through charts today, and again, I give the bulls a lot of kudos today. They did a pretty good job. They sold a little bit off into the close, but ultimately they did a pretty good job. But when you go look at charts tonight, you're not going to see 10 stocks are going to turn around to you go, yo, that looks really, really good. If Tesla would have closed anywhere near the highs, I could have easily made that statement. But when you look at a lot of names, especially on the Nasdaq 100, Meta looked like it was about to fall off a cliff today. Netflix, I think it goes lower. We saw some pretty decent 160 puts being traded today on the weeklies that expire only in three days. So at that point, they were betting 12, 13 points out of the money for a three-day rental. This thing looks lower. And again, the way that Netflix was trading today, the way that Meta was trading today, towards the end of the day, it felt like almost like a forced liquidation. I'm sure if I went through a million different charts today, I'd see some other names that were pretty violent back to the downside. But it felt like a little bit of a strong forced liquidation on those two names. A little bit later in the afternoon, they came out with some sort of PR that Meta settled with something or other. People thought this would be some big settlement. It turned out to be like $100,000. As soon as that PR came out, the stock sold off another $3. Netflix, if you guys remember, do you guys remember there was a rumor two, three weeks ago on Netflix for Roku, right? And the way Netflix was trading towards the low of the day and the way Roku was trading pretty much on the high end today, again, you can see how that could play out. But again, until something comes out with concrete information, it's all hearsay, mumbo jumbo, and market speculation. But the point is going into tomorrow, when you look at a lot of charts, a lot of names are going to be in the middle of the range for tomorrow, and there's a lot of names that are starting back to the downside. Like Netflix, like I said, I think this thing goes lower. If it starts taking down this whole range today that started, excuse me, range tomorrow that started today, I think it could see the 164 level. Look at a name like Disney again. Is there something in the water with these streaming media companies? Maybe it's something, maybe it's nothing, maybe it's a coincidence, but look at Disney for tomorrow, right? Disney starts, it held this range now four times. If Disney starts getting below this range, maybe this thing falls as well. So there's definitely value. Meta, we don't know what the hell is going on, but it doesn't look good, right? The only thing that saved it today was the Bollinger Band. So as much as we've seen now back-to-back, pretty strong gains in the NASDAQ, actually all the indexes, especially after last weeks of last weeks of manslaughter losses, despite the two-day run, you would never know the market was strong when you look at names like Meta and look at names like Netflix, and even names like Boeing, right? Boeing was right on the day today. When you look at Apple today, I mean, you know, look, it had a nice run, but look at the decline it had, and this is kind of the stock demonstrating strength. Even Amazon, they had a pretty decent trade. In the morning on, I mean, look, it got stuffed into supply, right? Stuffed into supply. We already know what the line in the sand is for the bottom of the range here. Again, who knows? Maybe names like this, despite their strength, maybe turn around later in the week. So, you know, I kind of don't have a good feel about tomorrow. There's definitely some longs I have that I'm watching. There's definitely some short, like, let me give you guys a couple of longs that I like. You know, Google looks okay. If Google starts reclaiming, confirms the 10-day it can wake up. Maybe Tesla, you know, Tesla had this phenomenal run today, really, really aggressive run today. There was a couple of sneaky pivots here, but the more important part of today's day on Tesla, it reclaimed the 20-day moving average on supply. Now, granted, it still needs to confirm today's highs. And you could, if you draw, like, this imaginary trend line, you could turn around and say, well, I just hit the declining trend line and now it's going to go back low. Maybe it was. Maybe it won't. I don't know. Right? I don't know. Again, we're talking about being prepared. We're talking about kind of playing devil's advocate and having ideas on both sides of the market. But at least it deserves our attention. And today, they were coming for pretty aggressively. They were coming for the 750 weeklies, the 800 weeklies. So, there was buyers. There wasn't buyers for $8,000 worth of premium. These guys are coming in six and seven figures. So, we'll see. We'll see what happens there. But I think tomorrow, I'm kind of dealt the neutral. I kind of see what happens here. And that's the most important thing is when you're trading in a bear market, especially to the upside. Yeah, they're going to give you a window. They're going to give you opportunity, especially when charts confirm technically. But just, again, keep in mind of the totality of where we are. Again, as good as Tesla was, they had an aggressive it was. You guys remember last week? Last week, it had three days, right? That it also went from 748 all the way down to 635. So, as much as it could go up 70 points, we've seen three days in a row that goes back down 100. So, we're not even close to a scenario that is decided one way or another. We're still in the supply, like we've been talking about now for six months. But the moral of the story is this market is very, very tradable. If you are patient and more important, if you are prepared. So, let's talk about a very, very aggressive action at the open today. Again, are you going to get 5,000 point moves? No, unless you're trading Tesla, that was a monster move today. But the point is you're going to get some pretty big moves. Amazon, what's below Amazon here? Oh, yeah. Somehow, I forgot to show the biggest, the biggest pivot of them all today. So, here's my morning comments. We're going to know by 10 o'clock, the market gapped up today. If this is a gap-and-go or a gap-and-crap, aggressive gap-up. Let's see how it plays out after the first candle. So, here is definitely the biggest move of the day. For all you guys who call it a congratulations. This is just a phenomenal move. This is why this stock is still the greatest thing since sliced bread. Tesla 676 needs to build. Tesla took out the 76, that was this candle here, took out the 18, took out the, excuse me, took out the 706, took out the 18, and traded all the way up to 730. So, it gapped up 20 and put up an opening range candle that lasted all the way to another $50 on top. They're just a phenomenal, phenomenal stock. Amazon, you know, decent trade. 10906 needs to build. I said there was a shot. It could get to 111. Again, it doesn't sound like it's sexy anymore because it's not, because everybody's used to still, you know, still used to those, you know, 150-point moves. But, you know, so it took out the 1096 and it traded right into supply in the 1160s area. A nice move on Amazon. Meta initially had a nice move and then it just got absolutely destroyed. 166 needs to build. Again, nobody really knows what the big move was, but it took out the 66, traded up a couple of points, and then it had just a nasty, nasty reversal back to the downside. NVIDIA went right off the word go. 164.50 needs to build. Here was NVIDIA, right? Took out the 64.50, which was the pre-market, pre-market area into supply. Took out 64.60. Traded all the way up to 170. Really, really big move on NVIDIA. Zoom 115 and 117. Big spots needs to build. I made a cup of coffee on Zoom. It's just so thin. So it took out the 15. Went up a little bit. Went down a little bit. I finally said, you know what? A cup of coffee. It finally started moving. Went to like 17.37, but it turned around. Went all the way back down from that 15 area. TTD 47.60, rejected back to back days. Needs to build. Here's TTD, right? Here's TTD. Took out the 47.62 back to back days. Traded right to supply at 49.60s. Amazon 10.84, next spot. 11.76. Tesla 6.98 coming. 6.98 went to 7.06. That went to 7.18. That went to 7.30. Big, big move there. NVIDIA, here comes 167 supplies. Went right through that 67s. And traded all the way up to 170. Nice move on Netflix. I still like this thing. Like I said, lower. 173.34. If it builds below, it can flush. Traded pretty much within a dollar of the lows. Got the 5-day rising support. That's 73.34. Went down to 69.80. Closed within a dollar of the lows. I still think this thing goes lower this week. Tesla 7.18 next stop. And then ultimately 7.31. So that's it. Pretty solid day. Again, kudos to the Bulls. They did great, right? They did absolutely great. Technology was marvelous today at the open. And then everything else just kind of started to window away. And eventually names like Netflix, META, and several others completely detached from the strength of the market. Considering Nasdaq was down, excuse me, was up 270 points. So tomorrow, again, we're kind of half and half. I'm watching, you know, I'm watching some tech names to the downside. I'm watching some tech names to the upside. But most important part is, remember, you don't need to trade every day. You don't need to trade aggressively every day. The most important part is don't forecast. Don't guess. Let the market dictate what's the next step. And I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.