 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a very fun week number four on tap in the NFL Which actually begins Thursday night with the Packers and Lions that game sneakly kind of fun Sneakly kind of important for the NFC in terms of the playoff race as well But then Sunday we get bills versus Dolphin's that game promises to be a thriller We're gonna break down that game talk about other big games across week number four and get you ready by talking to Dr. Ed Feng and picking his brain on his hair beds at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and on Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here once again by Dr. Ed Feng You can find his work at the powering comm and check him out on Twitter at the powering and Ed I am thrilled about this week number four slate in the NFL. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I want to know why we can't flex Miami and Buffalo into the Sunday night slot I want on the main day for daily fantasy Ed. I told I called Raj called Roger Goodell was like, hey, buddy I need Miami Buffalo on the main slate for DFS and he said, okay, I Do this just for you and that's why it's still there. Wait, why do you need in the main slate? I need it for daily fantasy Yeah, it's Sunday night. It won't be on the main slate anymore. So I got to be selfish yet. Oh Wait, why does the Sunday night game not matter because it's just the 1 p.m. Games It's just the 1 p.m. And the 4 p.m. Games if you flex it the afternoon that'd be fine I can live with that, but just not Sunday night. That would be a bridge too far Well, all right, I'm sorry to to foil your plans to get I mean, this is like clearly the best game. Yeah, I've gotten all seasons. So oh, yeah Well prime slimes prime prime time slot. You mean you don't want to watch the Holmes versus Wilson instead Yeah, my numbers couldn't get to the spread in that game. It was pretty interesting. It's like, why why why is it? Why is this not bigger? Let's see. I have 9.6 for Kansas City Yeah, so mine wasn't that big. I'm not exactly sure what it was I actually posted my public predictions on my site They are points based numbers and they had Kansas City by about like a point and a half and I was like Sorry guys. This is based on a free Rogers this is off. Sorry Yep, not much you can do there. Yeah, hopefully people don't complain too much. I Think they can use their best judgment. That's that's what we can help here for sure When I do those predictions like I kind of rank them based on you know kind of excitement So you get more you get bumped up if it's gonna be a close game you bumped up that the two teams are good So, yeah, that's not number one. I mean Show me the lie Ed if you can Maybe your does your model account for the Taylor Swift factor that she'll be there Sunday night Is that in the in the model? Definitely must be what happened the bump that came up to number one. Okay. I you did the model Have you have you blocked Taylor Swift mentions on your Twitter like some people I still find it entertaining I'm not gonna do. Yeah, like that's like my guilty pleasure. I'm like I know it's oversaturated and the tweets are kind of overdone, but like I still find them funny. So Why deprive myself of that pleasure, right? All right, and I got to tell my wife something about pop culture last Sunday. I did too. It's that never happens I in the most like Blinders on like I enjoy pop culture But I'm like terrible with like knowing names terrible with like knowing like oh this person's in that movie stuff like that It was it was great. Like I I felt like I for once had a leg up and that never happens same here Yeah, so we'll get to watch that game Sunday night. Luckily. We are not discussing that game for the podcast for today It's that we're talking about three hopefully competitive games and breaking those down and getting Ed's read on those games based on his model Later on the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast up there right now You can find a Thursday night preview for the Lions and the Packers via Tom Vecchio prime time Tom Breaking down at that game talking some props for that one We'll also have tomorrow player props via JJ Zacharyson some strikeout props with Pitching Ninja Rob Friedman that is all right here in the same feed You can find the regular shows on Fandal TV plus and Fandal YouTube as well to get Fandal TV plus Go to fandal.com slash watch or check out the Fandal TV plus app on Amazon fire Apple TV or Roku devices Snap into action as NFL season with Fandal America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets Guaranteed when you place a five dollar bet So those of you Kentucky who just got a betting launch today new customers two hundred dollars in bonus bets Guaranteed when you place a five dollar bet if you've been thinking about joining Fandal There is no better time to get in on the action. 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It's a gambling helpline ma.org or calling 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why or text open why in New York now Ed Let's start things off here by talking defense because we have seen some Abominable defense so far this year especially from teams like the Broncos and Bears happen to face each other this weekend now I know for me Defense gets less weight in my model than offense because it's tougher to predict It's less sticky stuff like that So I'm fine being skeptical that outlierishly bad performances on defense will persist But I want to know for you. How does your model handle early season defense and stats specifically? It well at this point in the season we are through three weeks So I am able to make schedule adjustments. So, you know, I mean it's it's in there and Right now it actually has the same weight as offense. I actually spent some time this off season messing around with trying to de-weight Defense when I do my schedule adjustments And it was pretty interesting because I had to sit down and write down the equations of how my algorithm works And then I sat and thought about it and I was like, well, the math doesn't make sense But screw it. We want answers, right? We want to de-weight the defense and at the end of the day It just it didn't make any sense Like the results were nonsensical. It was not how I anticipated it going and so it didn't work out Which which I think is a lesson like, you know, math is math for a reason and when it when it kind of doesn't make sense in the formalism It it's not gonna work out. So When I make schedule adjustments, I have to treat the offense and the defense the same That doesn't mean I can't de-weight things later. I've never messed around with that I think I probably should but that's that's something that's gonna have to wait for the next off season Now with the defenses and we see like these really bad ones like for me I think the reason I'm asking here is because with the Broncos bears total. I am pretty well below it I'm also below the total for the Panthers and the Vikings And I think the reason those totals are high is because the defense is a bed so bad to start this year But for me, I've got like I said, I have the offense way to hire But also there's still a prior baked in there and the prior is gonna be more towards the mean than what we've seen so far So when I see a total like the Bears Broncos one at 46 and I've got it at 43.8 it's it's hard for me to get there and Right, I guess for me that says I want to bet on unders But I kind of like I get a bit nervous about that because those defenses have been so hideous in the first three weeks For sure And I think like if you don't have some kind of preseason component in there You're gonna you're gonna be off because of the small sample size and you know, the the market's gonna probably be better there Yeah, so, you know, I think what you're saying makes sense Probably just probably should just stay away from it. I Took the under I did not I did not take the wise approach yet I took the under there and we'll see how it goes betting against those two bad defenses That's one way to view it. I'll also I'll view it as betting against some Mediocre at best offenses, that's the way I'll view it in my head as we get steady get ready for this week We do not have mediocre offenses in Buffalo where the bills are taking on the Miami Dolphin So let's talk about that game right now spread is a three points over at Fanduil Sportsbook total is 53 and a half and The Dolphin Zed went nuts last week, but the bills have also taken care of business ever since that Rocky week one So how do you see this battle playing out on Sunday? Yeah, I mean, I think the market is Right on the money right here. I mean I have Buffalo by 2.7 points So pretty much near the I mean probably exactly what what Fanduil has right now that we're looking at Yeah, I think this is gonna be a fantastic game and You know, like we're still I'm personally still seeing really some small sample size effects with Buffalo I actually have them as the worst past defensive team in In in the NFL right now, which is wrong You know, they're they're struggling with with with a with a poor performance in terms of success rate against Las Vegas That'll fix itself They actually are have the second best coverage grade by PFF and And you believe that because they have really good corners And that's why you expect that defense to be good. The truth is obviously somewhere between those two things I think they're probably above average Defense so and then oh and the other thing that I want to remind everyone as good as Miami was yesterday There's still two and oh and one score games. So they did not win by a lot the previous two weeks Had the had a late score to beat the Chargers, I believe and had to hold on against the Patriots So, you know, they you know, they're still are putting Eli Apple out there a corner and so Jalen Ramsey To a tongue over Lowe is still an eggshell. So, you know, it's not like all not all like Peaches there. I don't see any value in this game I am excited to watch it because I do think it will be a good game and Yes, it should be good should be fun. Yeah, total of 53 and a half tight spread That's kind of the formula you want in the NFL, you know wants and points want to be back and forth That's what we get here excited to see what the Dolphins do a gin and waddle being back now the running backs are kind of cooking there as well So they're gonna be a good game I do show value in the Dolphins plus three that is currently Minus 115 if Andrews sportsbook their money line plus 126. It's one of those games where you know, I do show value But I think you could also justify not taking it just because you want to sit back and enjoy this game You know, and her to her betting can be entertainment and it can also be anti entertainment So I think you can do it that way as well with dolphins and bills But should be a very fun game when Sunday rolls around Let's talk about an ASC north that between the Ravens and the Browns were right now Fandalsports book has the Browns favored in this game. This spread is at two and a half right now total for this game is at 40 and a half and The Browns lived up to your expectations that last week where you were confused why they were just three point favorites Titans they destroyed them now facing the Ravens who are banged up They have had an uneven start so far. So are you on the Browns once again in week number four? No So I have this game closer to a pick and I actually thought this might be kind of a nice little buy low spot on Baltimore They lost to the Indianapolis not without controversy, you know, Justin Tucker This is a field role regulation that could have won it pass interference is a flowers in and over time as well You know the underlying metrics. They were a lot better than than Indianapolis, you know, they had two fumbles as well You know, I respect Cleveland and you know, I think I said a lot of good things about them last week Defense has been awesome offense might get there at some point You know, like preseason I would have made Baltimore about a point and a half favorite in this I've come back a little bit I basically are making is making this game a pick Thought pretty hard about, you know betting Baltimore, but the injury list is pretty long You know, we're shot Bateman's on there got two of your best line in on the injury list as well Marlin Humphrey hasn't played all year. It I Don't know. I mean, I I may look at this again Sunday morning and Go at it with go out with Baltimore. My numbers are certain certainly showing value there But as of right now, this is a stay away from me Yeah, I've been the same boat as you where I've Baltimore or Cleveland fair by point three three points So a very tight game basically a pick there in that regard as well But I think the reason why I'd be hesitant to do it now is because we're probably gonna see this line Shift towards the Browns once you see the final injury poor come out on Friday because I don't think Beckham will play I don't think Bateman will play I think that Ronnie Stanley will be back and left tackle for the Ravens Which is a good thing for them because he's missed the past two games and missed most of week one as well Linda bomb. I don't think we'll go but they're missing a lot of guys and we'll probably see Movement towards the Browns. I think that if you want the Ravens I would wait until the injured report is out because we're probably gonna see things shift towards Cleveland then honestly Ed I Have enough faith in this team. They've played well enough through injuries so far Like I know they lost last week But like you said, they still played decently well in that game just had a lot of weird stuff break against them So even though I know I'm betting against the market and waiting for Baltimore I do still feel like they are the right way to go and personally I'd be okay Taking this one once I assume we get some movement in Cleveland's favor later on It's plus three Sunday morning. Yeah, so yeah, I definitely I definitely see that All right, let's talk here now about one of those afternoon games We did not get the bills and dolphins flex instead You are stuck watching the Patriots and the Cowboys right now The Cowboys are six and a half point favorites total in this game is 43 and a half the Cowboys really love rough loss last week as 12 and a half point favorites And they still have a lot of guys banged up along the offensive line So Ed do you view this as being a bounce back spot for the Cowboys or can the Patriots keep things tight here and cover a six and a half point spread Right, I mean I have this at Dallas by seven. I think that's about right I mean you mentioned all the injuries seems like Dallas's entire offensive line is not practicing this week So that definitely makes me hesitant, you know with Dallas. It's kind of like well, you don't have travel on digs anymore on defense Some people are excited about bringing in Brandon cooks for the offense this year But you know when you kind of look at his yards per route run He's declined steadily over the past four seasons. So, you know, I mean Dax Dax can be a lot better than he was last week You have CD lamb who's awesome, but like What what is that offense gonna do beyond that? Right? So I mean Gallup is fine, but not like not like great So, I mean, I think there's some questions there. I mean with the injuries as well You know when I'm looking at New England, I still don't really know what to think about this I mean, I still find it interesting that we're past the days when we think Bill Belichick can just kind of win you a game Or beat the spread You know they're one and two, but probably should have beaten Philly week could probably could have beaten Philly week one And you know rookie quarterback Christian Gonzalez has been really good so far this year You know the secondary could be pretty awesome if Jonathan Jones comes back So yeah, I don't know I mean, this is a stay away from me. My model is pretty close to where this line is like I said I don't really know what's going on with New England and as much as I like Dallas, you know I have some bets on them to win the division You know, I think you can start poking some holes in it as well And I think with Dallas if you're looking for a by low spot that might not be right now because the offensive line injuries are Still in place. I think that the by low spot for Dallas will more or so be once they get healthier It's not long-term issues for their key guys along the offensive line So I bet that they're healthy once again soon I have it at 7.9 before I wrote some of the offensive linemen So once I add that in we'll probably be pretty close to market as well So to me, it's also a stay away where I kind of want to wait I think eventually we will get that by low spot on Dallas But I wouldn't be shocked if they kind of struggle here against a a very good defense still You know, they could use Gonzalez against the lamb lambs in the slot a lot So it's not he's not as susceptible to Gonzalez as others But like if you're dependent on Chase Ferguson Michael Gallup and Brandon cooks That's probably not gonna be the best spot for new ink or for a Dallas So I agree the by low spot for Dallas likely comes later on Let's open things up for week number four and where else do you see value across this week at Fandall Sportbook? Yeah, you know, I've been looking at Going against Tennessee again So Cincinnati goes to Tennessee and you know, I mean, it's kind of interesting like, you know Cincinnati started this last year to own to the start of this year own to Everyone was sweating what was gonna happen on Monday night whether Joe Burrow was gonna play He did they win and now they actually like have like a pretty clean injury sheet There's kind of like no one on there, which is which is a little bit weird I think Cincinnati is good. It looks like the defense might not be quite as good as last year but I thought last year was a little bit fluky for their defense and You know, I think their offense is gonna be amazing. I mean eventually I think well, maybe not amazing But it's gonna be better than it than it has been I'm not high on Tennessee. I think we talked about this after the show, but I just kind of don't think they're very good I don't think Ryan Tannehill is very good. They had a J. Andre Hopkins And that's you know looking like a good move so far. I know he's got 1.87 yards per right run this year That's better than the 1.45 average you get for wide receivers in the NFL But he's also really not the player. He was three four years ago either So, you know, like my model is making this Cincinnati by about five and a half points here A lot of value there. I'm gonna go against Tennessee again. I'm not really sure how this team beat the Chargers It's just not you know how I expect. I just don't think that team is very good I think Cincinnati is still a Super Bowl contender as long as Burroughs healthy So I like I like Cincinnati minus two and a half here We're in the exact same spot as last weekend where you said you like the Browns minus the points I said I had already bet their money line same thing here I've already bet the Bengals money line currently minus 142 at Fandall sportsbook. I think that's a very forgiving number This Titans defense is real bad like the secondary at least is real bad and like you can't run on them Which is fine But it funnels more work towards the passing game and the passing game for the Bengals even with burrow banged up is More efficient than the running game. So I don't think that's a great approach from Tennessee Like they are kind of hurting themselves by encouraging teams to throw the ball against them when their corners are bad And that has hurt them quite a bit. So I couldn't agree more out I think that it makes a lot of sense to go against Tennessee once again Bengals money line for me a minus 142 at likes a minus two and a half Which is minus 106 and I agree both those bets pretty solid based on the way these two teams mesh up That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread and that's what we have for you this weekend But it's fun chatting a a decent college football slate and a very fun and a fell slate with you people are trying to find your member numbers Find everything else. Where can they find that on your end? Yeah, absolutely. Everything I do is at the power rank dot com. You can sign up for my free email newsletter I always come up with five no good Saturday every Saturday morning So if you're looking for action on any given weekend, this is gonna be the service for you Check it out at the power rank dot com members of my site get access to all my best predictions I've also I have a weekly analysis column and I usually put a bunch of NFL interception props based on some of the bad ball Analysis that I've done those are doing pretty well through three weeks So you can check that out at the power rank net You we were talking after the show yesterday about how you were sweating Zach Wilson under Yeah, to not throw a pick basically last weekend, which is plus 150 something and hey, you know, it didn't look pretty But that's not the point. You're not betting if it looked pretty you're betting for throw a pick and he didn't so that's exactly I wrote quote this next one might make you throw up that Wilson has thrown four picks in two games but the numbers like them so You know, it's it's just a matter of the number that you're gonna get and and then you know Like, you know, he has not thrown a pick in the 11 of 24 games. So if you're getting plus 150 ish There's value there. So yeah, I know it was an interesting sweat It's been interesting like most of the intercession bet Interception bets had been on the over which actually surprised me. I did not think that was gonna be the case particularly with the declining Interception rate, but I think I don't know I mean the markets just off in that direction and it's like, you know as as like a Quantitative better you don't often get to bet the over no You watch like Baker may feel throw a pick and get excited and like kind of not give a crap about the rest of the game Right, it's kind of fun. So so that's been that's been good Like I mean the Wilson one was the only under that I've had all season and you can understand why right? He's just don't throw so many picks and like he's got that history against Bill Belichick But it worked out this time. Yeah Well, I'd love to see it. Hopefully this week goes well also again to sign up go to the power rank calm Find Ed on Twitter at the power rank and check out his other football podcast as well the football analytics show I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis and J. I am s a NNES. We are back once again tomorrow breaking down Player props with JJ Zacharyson strikeout props with pitching ninja Rob Freeman And I'll be talking NASCAR and Talladega as well We'll talk to all of you then enjoy Thursday night football This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network