 Hey everyone, this is Mike Kramer of Mock Capital. Today is Monday, November 27th. It's around 7 p.m. New York time. So today we'll be taking a look at some currencies and dollar pairs. You know, especially given that, you know, towards the end of this week, we're gonna be getting some PCE inflation data here in the US. And then of course, we'll have J-PAL talking on Friday in a fireside chat. And you know, while it's important to remember that it may be the case that the Fed is getting closer to the end of its rate-hiking cycle, there are many other central banks that are already at the end of their rate-hiking cycle. And so we have to remember that all this stuff is always relative to how other parts of the world is functioning. And if, you know, the Fed may be getting close to the end of the rate-hiking cycle, but perhaps it is that the ECB is already done. And the market's gonna start thinking about, you know, the rate-cutting cycle that's likely to come some months down the road. And that may impact, you know, how currencies respond as the economic data continues to come in. Now, the big question is, is the dollar done rising? Is it gonna move lower now? Or is this the start of something bigger to the upside? I mean, certainly when we look at the dollar, we can see or it looks like there's a falling wedge pattern that's formed. More recently, we can also see that looking at the dollar on the daily charts, it is certainly at the very low end of what would be considered to be nearing oversold on the RSI. We'll look at it more on a shorter term basis. We can see that it's at this important level of resistance around 10310, which is a level that if we go back and look dates to this low back here, back on August 31st earlier this year. But what's also important that stands out here, is that again, if we take a look at this chart more longer term, and we were to draw it from, you know, a Fibonacci retracement level from bottom to top, we would see that to this point, we've retraced about 50% of the total move higher. So this is still sort of in that range of normal retracement level in terms of where the dollar is. And it doesn't really signal that the dollar is due for a significant collapse or that the dollar is due for a rebound. But again, what this is telling us is that right now, it would seem more likely than not that the dollar may be in a retracement period, rather than a period of complete breakdown and a move lower that would undercut the lows that we saw back in the middle of July. What's also important here is that if we were to break resistance around this 103 and a half level, it's likely to trigger a move higher in the dollar back to 10410 and potentially 10450 on the DXY. When we move over to the Euro versus the dollar, you can see the last time we spoke, we were talking about the Euro being at significant resistance around the 61.8% retracement level. That's pretty much where we are again as of right now. So again, this sort of goes with the idea that the dollar really isn't showing signs of completely breaking down at this point, but really more showing signs of what appears to be a retracement of an initial move lower in the Euro versus the dollar. And so again, we need to remember that for reasons why the dollar can continue to outperform, is especially if the ECB is done raising rates and their economy in Europe begins to show some signs of weakness, while the US economy still continues to do fairly well, this could actually result in the dollar continuing to strengthen further against the Euro. So until we really start seeing the Euro move beyond the 61.8% retracement level, call it around this 109.5 area, it's really hard to say that there's been a meaningful shift in the Euro. Again, what I would be looking for is a move above this level and then looking for the next level of resistance around 11050, while if this level continues to hold, it would set up a decline back to this 108.5 level with the potential for a break sending the Euro all the way back to 107. When we look at the same thing and the pound, the pound has actually continued to rally a little bit more since the last time we talked about it. We can see the pound is just about at a 50% retracement level. When we look at the pound, it almost looks like what the dollar index looks like, which has a falling wedge. The pound almost appears to have a rising wedge, which would be an indication that the pound is actually likely to move lower and potentially back to support around this 125.30 area. Again, while the next level of resistance for the pound probably wouldn't come until about 127.30, which would be the 61.8% retrace level. So right now we're at a resistance level, which marks around the 50% retracement level at this 126.35. The technical pattern would suggest a move lower in the pound with a dollar strengthening. Again, if you were to see the British economy show signs of struggling or slowing while the US economy remains strong, regardless of what the central banks may or may not be doing, it's going to be on a relative basis in terms of what the economic strength of these economies are and the likelihood of one central bank potentially continuing to hike or another central bank continuing even begin to cut. Now when we switch over to Japan, it's a little bit of a different story because the BOJ really hasn't done anything yet. And that's sort of the difference between what's happening in Japan and what's happening in the UK and the ECB and of course here in the US, because again, the Fed, the ECB and the BOE have all hiked rates aggressively. The BOJ has done nothing yet and that has led to this big weakening in the yen versus the dollar. And what it almost looks like is happening now is that the market is beginning to show some signs of a shift in terms of where the yen is going to be going, almost as if it's beginning to show signs of turning and showing signs of this moving down, which would be a sign of a yen that's strengthening versus a dollar. Now the reason why that would be again is because the BOJ hasn't hiked at all and all they've done is allow the 10-year rate to float a little bit higher up to approaching the 1% barrier. And really what this means is that the BOJ were to come out in December and begin to raise rates, that would likely result in rates across the whole curve moving higher and that would also likely result in the dollar weakening against the yen. Now this would probably result in the yen moving down to 145 or so, but we need to remember that the market is going to begin anticipating a BOJ rate hike campaign and that may already be starting to happen with the yen strengthening versus the dollar and beginning to show signs of what could be an impulsive move down, which could set up a decline back to this, like I said, 145 level, while if support were to hold at this 148.5 region, the upside is probably pretty limited right now to around 151.5. I think it's more likely than not, though, that of the ones that are of the currencies likely to really strengthen against the dollar, I think the yen is the one that's likely to see that. And I would be looking for a move, a further decline in the end, potentially heading towards this 145 area, at least over the very near term. And that's really where we are right now. I hope you have a great rest of your week and we'll be talking to you again soon, hopefully. Bye.