 Well, it's pretty easy to be the leading futurist when there's only one. Thanks for inviting me. Great pleasure to be here. Beautiful place here. So my mission, and I have accepted it, is to talk about monetizing digital content, which of course won't take very long. So if you're wondering what a futurist is, this is what I do. There's a Chinese saying that if you want to know the future, ask a five-year-old, and so that's what I do. I pay attention to what people are doing around the world next three to five years, looking at trends. Here's my Twitter handle if you want to tweet and follow me and disrupt what I do. Our clients here, I have about 100 clients around the world, including tech companies, publishers, record labels, broadcasters, and so on. So let's get right into it. You guys know what this is? It's a satellite, right? It's a company called O3B, the other three billion, that's half funded by Google. And what they do is they put up satellites, low-flying satellites around the world, 18 of them, 16 already up, that will provide free internet access to the other three billion who aren't currently connected, Africa, India, China, Southeast Asia, Brazil, and so on. When these guys go online, which is pretty much the next two or three months, as far as I know, a lot of things will change, including phone calls without a SIM card. So you can imagine having virtual phone numbers. This will change the way that people access media and what we're seeing here is, of course, you guys are all familiar with this, and if you're in the media business, it's a radical disruption. In fact, you could argue there probably isn't really any successful innovation without disruption. That's what we see the most successful product in the last couple of years, 10 years say YouTube, licensed initially, not legal, MySpace now dead, but also not licensed, not almost dead, I would say. So disruption, and basically Henry Jenkins, a professor at MIT, said something very interesting. This is not about cool tech stuff, it's not about devices, it's not about apps, it's not about iPads, it's about emerging cultural practices. People buy differently, they vote differently, they learn differently, they connect differently, they do different business. All of a sudden there are different cultural practices. UView is a change of viewing habit, it's not a box. This is about we live differently, we don't wait for the TV show to start at 8 p.m. We want to start at 8 a.m. when we have time in the car. So that's cultural practice, quite different there. This is a chart from a friend of mine, Ross Dawson from Australia, he's putting together the newspaper Extinction Timeline saying the U.S. of course is first, they're the most progressive here, or regressive, whatever you want to call it, 2017 in the U.S., you guys are quite lucky because you're second. So you got another six years to go until people stop printing newspapers, which that's what he says, I don't entirely agree. But basically this is sort of an example of disruption. I mean in the end we have to just ask a simple question, do we want to pay the truck drivers and the printers, or do we want news? Do we want to pay for news? Or do we want to pay for the trucks? That's where we're heading with this debate, and you can see of course mobile data is exploding around the world. I mean not just of tablets, but in general. I mean the people who are mostly online doing web search and stuff are the Africans, 6.4% of people in Africa with the mobile phone search on the web, more than we do in Europe. I mean if you're looking at this number, today a poultry sum 300 petabyte in five years, 7000 petabyte per month being consumed by mobile consumers. So what will the telcos do if there's any telcos and operators here? I mean of course this is a big problem, because basically if you don't engage up the food chain, you'll be left paying a huge bill for all the throughput that people generate. So in a way you can argue mobile data also means basically that you have empowerment. I mean if you go right now you can get an app like Flight Tracker at the airport and you will know more about the upcoming flight than the person at the gate. Or TripAdvisor or Kuai, I mean this is all about empowerment of consumers. I mean if you have Spotify, why do you need to buy iTunes? I mean it's empowerment, you can listen to anything you want. So that's what's happening in mobile data and if you take one slide from the upcoming report here, it looks kind of hopeful, but it's definitely not a magic want. I mean people spend money on apps between 3, 5, 10, 15 pounds last three months, quite interesting. In America the average iPhone user spends $4.80 a month on things like divorce apps and those kind of interesting things. There's ten of them by the way, if you should be in the need of them, too late for me. But what's happening, I mean it's not a magic want. I mean look at Wired Magazine, Cosmopolitan and all the hopes of selling apps hand out. First time, first Wired app was 100,000 downloads or something, $5 each, and then it went down to 50, and 20, and 30, and now it's what, 5. So repackaging and selling it by the unit probably won't work. Because basically what we have now is this big shift from the this box here, these boxes here, they're about work, the computers. The future of media is not about work, it's about fun. And it's office. So 90% of the world's internet traffic will be on mobile devices, not on computers. And that changes the equation completely. Because these people are different kinds of people. As Kevin Kelly says, the people of the screen and people of the bed, as you can see here, from the previous slide as well. I mean this is not the same than using the web on the computer. And that's our future. So now we're heading to a future where we're going to use whatever screen is available. So in the car we have it on the back seat, on the home we have HD, but it's the same virtual jukebox. It's the same cloud that we're going into. That is the crucial part. And so the new money is sort of in the connection of the cloud and the crowd. How do you put the two together? That's where the money comes from. It's not saying you can't listen to this show now because it's not available here or there or here, right? I mean this kind of models are sort of walled garden models. It's all about the cloud. I mean you guys know about cloud computing, but cloud media is where everything is going. Absolutely everything including education, learning, e-health, money. Money obviously is content, some sort of form of content. So everything moving into the cloud, as you can see here, 91% of Chinese internet users are using over the top television. And they're actually, of course I don't have cable to satellite in many places. So that's their choice. But that's what's changing. Amazon just launched a cloud computing mechanism for music. And of course the first thing is that labels aren't very happy about this. So now you have Kevin Kelly saying a very smart guy co-founder of Wired. He says what's happening right now, very important. We're moving away from pages, PCs, to day, to streams, cloud, we, and data. That's a huge difference here is when you look at streams, then you're inside of a stream. You don't have to keep it. You don't have to buy a copy. It's enough if it streams. Go to a party of a 15 year old kid. It used to be 100,000 songs downloaded for free and very happily downloaded for free on the hard drive and now it's nothing, it's a playlist on YouTube. Music comes from a virtual playlist. There's no downloads. So why are we pursuing the downloads? I have no idea. Because that was five years ago. People aren't downloading and we'll have news for you. So basically we have to think about the cloud. What's happening here is all the business is moving to the cloud so I suggest that we move our head into the cloud as well. Because we're going from broadcast to broadband. And not to say that broadcast will go away, it will not. But it will completely overlap with broadband. So go to the scene of the old television three important things here. People have a huge amount of choices, diversity, complete fragmentation. You can watch TV shows about fixing your motorcycle all day long if you want. Or pole dancing for that matter. Whatever it is. Or you can watch cable TV. But I had this argument with my wife for five years. I want to get rid of cable. I don't need it. Everything I want is somewhere on the web. And in most cases legal actually. So then we have this and we have this. We're now connecting with live-minded people. Readbook by Seth Golden called tribes. We live in tribes. And virtual tribes. My Facebook friends are the ones that tell me what I should read or look at or which movies are cool. And my Twitter friends and many others. And of course all of that stuff is mobile. I mean this is of course the most important part. I'm not sitting at home in my office thinking about media. So that's what's happening. Out of this comes a simple deduction of you in the media business. It's all about curation. Because the noise is going to be deafening. I mean wait till 3 billion people go online in Brazil, Russia, China, Indonesia to generate their own content. Talk about bloggers, music, uploads, video sharing, photo sharing. The noise will be deafening. So we'll need more curation, more people who are very, very good filters. Professional filters. I mean that's what broadcasting is all about. Obviously being a filter. So we're moving into this world from me, monopoly, the central entity of broadcasting to a world of we. And this is what Facebook is doing for us for example. That's why it's so successful. Facebook is a broadcaster. Facebook is broadcasting you to me and me to you. And what's coming next with Facebook I'll show you in a second. But basically this is dumb. I mean dumb in the sense of this television doesn't know who you are and doesn't care. But this television knows who you are. Scary part too. So they can serve you better ad. I mean every single television will be connected to the internet in the very near future. And we have this. We have a huge amount of data from what we do there. And we have roughly one trillion dollar budget of advertising, marketing, public relations, data mining, all the interesting stuff. That flows into this direction. Into smart ways of advertising. So now we're people of the cloud. This is gradually coming to be a reality for most of us and as Jeff Jarvis says it's about linking. I mean the interesting part is that I'm sort of a program guide for some of you. I'm a program guide for me. And depending on, you know, I want to read books or look at movies and so on. So now we're interested in this. We're interested in making it a fluid simple easy experience. We're not interested in free per se because in western countries we have more time, more money than we have time. I mean ask yourself if you would spend the money to save time you're always going to end up spending the money. And that's the big difference. We haven't figured out how to get money from people by saving them time and giving them quality. That is the real issue. So now we're here in the cloud generating data and as the World Economic Forum has just put out a very interesting report on personal data. I said this many times before. It's not from me but it's widely used. Personal data is the oil of the internet. It's the currency. Google makes three billion dollars a month reading your email, Gmail. Running ads against what you do there. Personal data as well. A lot of that stuff will come from and 75% of all content has always been funded by advertising, which is called data. So if you're worried about getting funded for content by advertising, don't be because so far it hasn't worked out because we were on these boxes. And we were not really truly connected. We were working. So now these boxes and mobile devices allow people to spend a trillion dollars on marketing and promotion and advertising in a targeted way. So don't tell me we can't fund $17 billion of the music business. That's 1.7% of the global advertising budget. We just have to grease and lubricate the process. So if you look at what's happening here, already clearly these are old numbers. I think Google's market cap is 280 billion now, slightly larger. But Google is a lot larger than content guys in America. So the market caps are increasingly large. And what do they do? The Google guys, they do this. They make it liquid. They deal with data. And the same thing is going to happen with Facebook. They don't own any content. They don't make any content. They just aggregate and filter it. They deal with data. So now our social networks have said before that the coming broadcast Facebook will go public next year, probably the biggest IPO ever. And guess what they're going to do? They're going to add television, books, music, content. They're going to become real broadcasters. I mean not in the sense of real us broadcasting, us plus other content. But you can already watch major studio movies on Facebook. But the killer will be two things. Facebook will give us a free mobile phone without a SIM card. A free mobile phone. To connect to the network. And the second is Facebook will make movies and films, television shows and music partially free. Because they have all of the great advertising data that people are looking for. Just like cable TV. Used to have. So stats that people do on Facebook, you'll see in the report by doing very interesting interact with people, upload stuff. There's a huge amount of stuff. It's all about fragmentation. People use this for different purposes. So now you can argue Facebook is cable TV without the cable. Lucky them. They don't have to spend the money on satellite. Somebody else does. But what are you going to do about it if you're a mobile operator? I mean look at this graph shown on Facebook growing to be just as important as Google. You can watch Alger Zero on Facebook. You can connect Facebook to Amazon to do so called social shopping. You can watch Batman on Facebook and Zook says he's going to turn the television film and music industry upside down. And he's not joking. So that's what's coming with Facebook's IPO and with roughly 1 billion people connect to Facebook in a year. Within a year. The end of the year. As of today 21 billion minutes spent per day on Facebook. If you're not broadcasting on Facebook, you're in deep trouble. Facebook is the platform. One of the platforms. So the Facebook monster, as Zook says himself, he didn't say Facebook was the greatest way to waste time or to meet girls or whatever. What it used to be or to meet kids. He said we have the most powerful distribution mechanism that has been made in a generation. And I think it's wrong because it's the most powerful attention platform. Which amounts to the same thing, right? Because today is no longer about distribution. It's about attention. The real battle today is not about getting people not to download or to pay for it or all these things, but to pay attention to what the hell is that you're doing. Because when you have attention you can always convert. I mean look at Netflix. You guys know Netflix, UK service, US service, right? 22 million subscribers. It's not about distribution. It's about attention. It's about the like button. That's a mental form of distribution. So now Kevin Kelly says we're becoming people of the screen. And I tell you one thing, people of the screen are not the same people than people of the book. I love books. I write books so I'm happy for you to buy my books. But we're becoming people of the screen. There's screens everywhere. And people of the screen are not going to buy a media in the same way that we used to buy it when there weren't any screens. I mean forget it. It's not going to happen. And there'll be 5.1 billion people like this using screens to access content. What are we going to tell them? We're going to tell them they can't share. They have to pay the same price for the e-book and the physical book. Come on. You know where this is going. They're going to do it all free. So people of the screen are different as you can see here. Even in the most unlikely places. And then we have gamification. Some of us here on the panel in this business say everything is about games. Have you noticed? Farmville, Cityville. Facebook is a game in a way. You could say it's a social game. Four Square is a game. I can become mayor. Gamification. That's what we see everywhere around the world in media. One other thing we see is that sharing is a default mindset of the digital generation. If we turn off sharing, we're finished. I mean the whole drive off music is sharing. I mean we used to get together and swap records or record John Peel on the BBC. And that wasn't entirely legal. But it's about sharing. Sharing, if we turn off sharing, we're finished. Look at the music business. 71% decline in the decade. Because sharing is no longer desired. But it has been removed as interesting. So look at the graph here. That's the music industry. It is the fault of this. People aren't willing to buy music. That can't be true. Do people hate music? Not true. Do we have bad artists? Not true. In some cases, true. So people of the screen consume differently. They like to go from copy to access from the ripped CDs to Spotify. We're going from a copy economy to an access economy. And this is pretty much a globally accepted fact. If you're going to say that you prefer to sell copies than to sell access, you are in deep trouble. Because you're going off a cliff that's getting steeper by the minute. People will still buy copies. I still buy books. There's no growth in that part of it for the time being. It's about providing access. We have to wrap it up sooner. And it's not just true in content. The biggest trend in car buying is not to buy a car but to share it. Car sharing is the biggest trend in the car industry right now. Sharing your own car or other people's car called collaborative consumption. So Kevin Kelly says when copies are free you need to sell something that can't be copied. Tough mission. But what are we going to do about it? Make copies not free? Then we can move to China. That's my view. But I think we need the new generatives. The alternative is to make money with that process. As Kevin Kelly calls it, for example, the media scene would be something like recording a concert for a band that I went to and being able to download it on top of Spotify for a premium. That would be an extra service that would be a new generative. And already exists. So a couple of examples on those generatives, and you should read what Kevin is saying about this, immediacy, personalization and so on. The Met Opera, you can watch live in HD in a movie theater in America. It's already working. People are already doing this. That's extra. That's a premium service that we can sell. Al Jazeera has a social context that makes us come to Al Jazeera, not to CNN, because they aren't that on the screen. You can watch Major League Baseball on Facebook. That's an added value. You can use these fancy maps at CNN Money. You can connect Amazon to Facebook. You can look at The Matrix, what happened with them with this whole interactive storytelling approach. And you can make your own movie about Michael Jackson. So all these approaches are extra services, many of which can be charged for. And they don't become copy one. You can't copy an experience. You won't only copy a file. So how you compete with free? I mean, if I got a euro for each time people ask me this, I would be very rich man. I have my own private jet. Like Alexander does. So that's the question. How do you compete with free? Well, clearly you make a better service. Netflix is better than free movies. It's $10. But it's better. It's better, quicker, cleaner and the price is right. Ask yourself a simple question. Would we be discussing piracy for music if the song cost 10p? Do we want it to 10p? No. But if we can sell it to absolutely every person in Europe, we're talking about 900 million people at 40 songs a month. That sounds good. Let's do that. Pricing, service, likeable brand. That's important. Timely contextual interface. Better tools. It's not that hard. I mean, lots of people are doing this. O'Reilly Publishing has a service called Safari Books. If you enter tech books, reading about programming and stuff, they sell you access to 5,400 books online for $49 a month. It's a flat rate for books. It's the biggest thing that ever done in books are great. There's no DRM. There's lots of examples here. Look at the curve of Netflix growth. Netflix has grown so quick and so fast that now the studios are saying they don't want to license Netflix in other places or in a certain window because it's too successful competing with cable TV. That's called having your cake and eat it. Anyway, we're moving into a future with the topic of my first book, Music Like Water. It's reality now. Give me just one example. TDC in Denmark. It's a mobile operator and an ISP. They have bundled free music into access to the web. So when you buy DSL from them or the mobile phone, music is all included. No questions asked. Everything. And guess what? The biggest selling factor, I think, that paid something like 15, 20 million euros to the white soldiers in Denmark. The biggest selling factor is this. They have reduced the churn rate by 50%. Do you know what that means in terms of money? 50 million. So don't tell me that we can't get ISPs and operators to come to the table and say let's make this together into a fruitful business. We just have to allow it. I mean, obviously, they have the motivation to do this, to bundle things. So we've got to get to the end here. So a kind of depressing slide here to ask people would they pay for content about 80% said I wouldn't and the other 20% are lying. They wouldn't either. So the question is not to ask people would you pay for content or do you have 10 quid for music? The question is we have to do some better packaging. Some bundling. This is clearly crucial bundling and upselling. It's not new. The most successful content business is the gaming business because that's what they do. Download the first 10 levels for free. You're completely stuck. You spend 50 hours and it's just 20 quid to get the next unlock your new weapons or something. So this is crucial. That's what we have to do. Not ask people would you pay now or go away like the pay wall. That's like my way of the highway so I'll take the highway. That's the idea of saying okay freemium, free, feels like free. That's sort of academic because at the end we're trying to get people into the bundle and into the upselling. If you have nothing to upsell to then you're in deep trouble because it's just all free. But that's basically what's happening now. So we're moving to this thing called the telemedia ecosystem. I talk about this a lot because many of my clients are telcos and operators. It's a new system where we're all going to essentially create new business models and publishers, advertisers, device makers and telcos and social networks. And we're basically creating this new system, this new logic together. Don't forget again I was saying earlier that 75% of all content has been paid for either by taxes, which we don't like but they exist, or by advertising. And of course also by subscribers. I mean that's the other piece of the pie here. So we need to create a new logic of usage right of permission. I think that's what we're going to see in the near future. Three ways to get paid and then I'll summarize and then we're really onto the panel here. This is very important. Jeff Jarvis talks about this and also Shelley Palmer. There's one way if I blog, you read my blog, I am paying for you to read my stuff. So I'm paying for the pleasure of you reading my stuff. That's called I pay. The other thing is you pay. That's the New York Times. So now it's becoming a you pay sort of idea. But basically media has almost been about this, which is they pay. Somebody else pays for me to use your stuff because they want to reach me. Cable TV best example. If we pay what it actually cost to put the TV cable in the ground, we couldn't afford it. It's supported by advertising. So the future holds business models like this and I can't tell you again there is no recipe. Don't ask me for recipes because there isn't any. Every business, every country, every travel group, every platform is different. So I'm not going to tell you pay yes or no because that answer doesn't exist. It's basically a mixer. I pay, you pay, they pay and just turn on the blender when you're ready to make a model. You figure out what it is. Linked in, go on public tomorrow, Thursday, buy stocks. Linked in, that was number 2,000 when LinkedIn started 7 years ago. It's now 114 million I think. And people ask me why in the world are you doing this? Connected with strangers. What a stupid idea. Today linked in makes 300 million a year with this model. It's free until you decide to get better weapons. So you can email more people. That's what it comes down to 20 bucks a month. That's the same model. So I'm going to get to the end here otherwise we'll be here tonight. The future of advertising. I'm going to skip on that because again we need to come to the end here. So we just wrap this up. Recent cover of The Economist or I think SomewhereInTheEconomist.com. Very interesting people are bidding for your attention. I mean this is the future of media. This person there, somebody, what the mobile phone brands want to reach this person and they're willing to spend a trillion dollars on it. And content guys want to reach that person as well. So the question is how much would you pay to reach me? That's how we generate money. And it's not you, it's just different. Different way of doing the same thing. Let me summarize. So disruption. Either you disrupt or you are disrupted. There is no other alternative. And I recommend to you right now in the media business to be a disruptor. Because if you are disrupted, look at the newspaper or the music industry, right, and you don't respond, you're always on the defensive forever. So disrupt or be disrupted from the copy to the access. Social networks are the next bar because it's not just Facebook, right, there's 10 big companies, QQ, Mixi, Orchard, Cyworld, many others. QZone in China has 680 million, it's still the largest for the time being. So they are broadcasters. They are the next broadcasters. They're actually commissioning movie production as we speak. Netflix, Amazon, Facebook. They're broadcasters. We're moving from the network, the network central network to the networked. This is really true I think across everything including branding, companies and so on. Everything in the cloud. Streams, cloud, data. We're moving from broadcast to broadband and of course broadcast will still be part of broadband as well. Facebook is an attention platform and this is the future of media as far as I'm concerned is to figure out business models that are based on an ecosystem, not on an ego system. We've had ego systems for a long time and they worked. Congratulations. But they will not work in the future. The future is about collaborative business models. The new generatives, look up at Kevin Kelly. Personal data is the oil of the Internet. So if you're somewhat involved with data, that's a good thing. And I think this is really going to be it now. Here's my books. They're all free except for my first. You can download it from my website. Thanks very much.