 secured overnight financing rate unchanged on January 19th. Welcome traders to this week's live trade analysis session. With me, Patrick Manley, we're just going to give another 30 seconds here before we get going. Before we do start today, it would be useful for me if you can just confirm that you can see the welcome screen and you can hear me loud and clear if you type a Y in the chat box. That's helpful, so I know we are good to go. Thank you. Okay, so before we jump into the presentation, as always we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer, most importantly, in pertinent to today's conversation is that the ideas expressed by me today are solely mine. They are not addictive of or representative of those held by Tickmail UK or Tickmail Europe Limited. And for those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit, a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology startups. Having a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, quite literally sometimes overnight, I decided to explore my curiosity for markets. With some capital to play with and some time on my hands, I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure financial hit. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. It was a time during which that's not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, extensively back and forward testing strategies that most crucially suited my personality and all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift I made was from being a highly goal-oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-oriented. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I made from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in a form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading really being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcomes of individual trades or a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, that my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. And my multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering again annual positive returns, and I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to four CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to TickMill. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for about three to five markets that I'm actively tracking and those are shared through the TickMill trading view accounts under the trade ideas tab. I also run TickMill's rapidly growing e-mini strategy group where I post a daily trade video outlining my pre-market trading plan for the New York cash trading session. I give my bias for the day in specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 1,850 points of profit since we launched this service in April of last year. The second TickMill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The TickMill futures trading telegram group is a real-time environment. On a daily basis, I share in-depth insights and trades. I also live streamed during the opening hour of the cash session where I look over my shoulder and watch in real time as I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These live trade sessions will act as a platform helping you to develop as a professional consistent trader looking to approach the markets and navigate them using a consistent plan. And most importantly, I help you with the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. So that gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from. Now I want to jump over to the charts. Today we're going to be looking at the four-hour timeframe for a bunch of opportunities that I see developing in this current session potentially and certainly tomorrow as we head into Monday. Before I start analyzing the charts, I just want to let you know that if you have any questions, if you make a note of them in the chat or in the Q&A and I will come back to those at the end of the presentation, I'll just go through the charts first of all and interrupt them and then we'll review any questions that you might have at the end of this session. So we're going to start here with the S&P 500. I'm using the Humanity Futures Contract and we have been in a correction since posting a high there, a new all-time high at the beginning of the year and that correction has essentially traded in a three-way pattern versus the swing high at the 47, it's 39 to 50 that should read. Small adjustment there and so that once we've posted that corrective high, the reaction high versus the first reaction low, that gave us a downside objective of the 14509 level which is the equality objective and I think we're going to trade into that zone and potentially a little bit lower to just take out the stocks here below the 4500 level that I'm directly being eyed by the bear. So whilst we continue to hold the 4560 sit to level as resistance, I'm looking for an extension down to the test the monthly range support at 4500 and then potentially just a quick click below that daily projected range support to 4480s and projected descending, sorry, trend line support there as well. So by a step back in there, I'll be looking to engage on the long side and then we will play for a three-way corrected move up into descending trend line resistance, trend channel resistance that comes in at 4630. Important for those who are active in this market, it's options exploration tomorrow and the key levels to pay attention to to my mind are the 4600 which is the big pin strike for the exploration tomorrow and the other level I'd be paying very close attention to is any break of the 4450 level would be a significant bearish development, certainly as we head into tomorrow and could lead to quite a downdraft in the E-mini S&P. So as we hold the 4500 I'll just below, I'm looking to for buyers to step in and then as we head into next week to get a bounce and a short squeeze, post-option exploration as we often see and I've been looking that to play out to get a test up into this selling trend line resistance at the 4630 level. The NASDAQ, the game we're using futures contract, the NASDAQ E-mini futures contract, we have a downside objective as the swing high here at the 16630 area. We are looking for prices to extend through the current lows and get a test to the equality objective at 14510. So whilst we hold resistance, trend line resistance at the 15220 area, watch for bearish reversal patterns, set short positions, targeting this move down to the 14500 level. From there then, again, post-options exploration, we can think about a corrective move to see us test back up into the current descending trend line resistance at the 15150 level. I'm potentially excited a bit higher here into the high volume nodes up towards 15600. So it's going to be key to see how price responds at this 14500 and certainly those lows there at 14374. Watch for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side and we will look initially for a test of the descending trend line resistance as the first upside objective. Now Jones, the YM is the futures contract that I'm tracking here. We have put in a test of the descending trend line resistance here. We have already exceeded the equality objective at 35000. So any pullbacks now that fail into this prior resistance area here and support at 35500, anticipate we get another leg down to get a move that will test into the 34698 area and then from there again, similar to these other indexes, they have a tendency to move in a similar fashion. We are looking then for bullish reversal patterns to extend to the upside ideally post-options exploration to get a test of the descending trend line support that will be coming in somewhere around 35,440. Russell, this one has also got a equality objective that remains untested. So we have this high, the all-time high is there, 2460s and we have versus the swing low and the initial reaction high 2289. We're looking for a test of 1932. So as we continue to trade within this internal sending trend channel, we're watching for bearish reversal patterns against this trend channel as an opportunity to engage on the short side. So 2100s anywhere in there and a bearish rejection sets us up then to play for the 1930 and from there then we would anticipate a more significant three-way and corrected move and the initial target will be into that descending trend line resistance that comes in around 2170s. Dax, a similar story here. We have a untested equality objective 15,523. So as we hold resistance at the trend line, watch for a bearish reversal patterns to develop to engage on the short side targeting that 15,523. From there, we look then for a break of the descending trend channel resistance and move up into the major trend line resistance at 16,240 for the Dax. Let's move into the interest rates. We're going to start here with the 10-year keynote futures still looking for lower prices at the moment and whilst we hold, whilst we test and find the rejection bearish reversal patterns, 127 classes, we are looking for an extension down to projected trend channel support 12619s and then from there a more extended corrected move to get us back into trend channel resistance at the 120807 and obviously then that 10-year feeds into the rates, 10-year rates. We have a nice five-way sequence developing here. So what I'm looking for now is as we break lower here, we look for a failure and a retest of support back to the 170 level. Obviously the interest rates trade in the inverse to the futures contract and from there then we anticipate bias to try and step back in and defend that level and then move back up to test 180 as resistance will be the next move we'll be tracking there. So let's jump to the dollar index. Now the dollar has been testing this pivotal trend line support here on the four hour time frame. Bias have stepped back in but we are now up looking at the trend line resistance for those who joined the presentation last night. You'll know that ideally what I'm looking for in the dollar is another cycle high to develop here into the highly anticipated Federal Reserve move coming into March. So the dollar is trying to break resistance here. If we can get through this level at the 9560s, we look for a move back up into 9648 and then we will try and see if the dollar can grind it out to the upside and ultimately looking for a test of the 98 handle into that Federal Reserve music. Now the alternative scenario is that we don't find sufficient support and we start to break down. If we take out the trend line support on a closing basis again then that is significantly going to weaken that support and then I'll be starting to think about downside objectives and certainly a move back down to test the 9430s. Any pullbacks then that recheck that trend line support to act as resistance, we can then think about moves down to the yearly pivot at 9390 as the next step to the downside. Gold. Trading inversely obviously well not at the moment it's it will be seeing a little bit of strength in terms of the dollar obviously but certainly more strength in terms of gold. We are trading. I'll just jump to the daily time frame so that you're aware of this. We're in a big triangle pattern in gold and again as I referenced in the live session last night I am increasingly turning bullish gold and looking for for prices to extend to the upside. So what I look for now is a test of this trend line projected trend line resistance monthly and daily range resistance 1850s as pullbacks then remain supported into 1820s 1830s. I'm going to be looking for bullish reversal patterns to get in on the long side looking for an extension up into the resistance zone at 1879. So that's what I'm tracking in gold silver similarly bullish at this juncture. So we've got a nice channel that we're training in pitchfork channel so as we find support now the 24 handle 24 dollars I'm looking for another extension to the upside and ultimately I'm looking for a move to test the trend line sorry the prior resistance zone here at 2530s is the next upside objective. So as pullbacks remain supported into this 24 area I'm looking for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for a test of 2530s. Another bullish metal here industrial metal this time we have copper and what we're looking for are pullbacks into the trend line support to as buying opportunities at this stage. So we look for a move into the 440175s to watch there for bullish reversal patterns on the four hour time frame to engage look for a break at this descending trend line resistance and get us up into major descending trend line resistance and the projected channel resistance up towards 47710 as the next upside objective for copper. Crude oil still tracking to the upside I'm looking for any pullbacks now into the prior highs and this projected ascending trend line 8420s we look for bullish reversal patterns there to set long positions and also be looking for us to grind it out then to the confluent targeting zone the 3.618 extension of the major 12 way of there and natural wave 3 target and we also have a 127 extension of the last leg to the downside perlesting around this 91 6092 area so bullish reversal patterns at 8440 8460 to get long tugging move up through 90 and then on to get a test towards the 92 handle at this stage it will really take a loss of this trend line support to suggest we have a more meaningful high in place but even at that juncture what I've been looking for would be an equality objective versus our wave 2 here so we do take out the trend line support next target area is going to be the 79 handle but even from there I'm still looking this is still a bullish structure and we will be looking then for a wave 1 quality objective to develop let's just draw give you a sense of what I've been looking at so even from that 70 even back into a 79 test we still look then for an extension up into 92 target so we've got a couple of interesting areas where we can look to engage here on the long side for crude looking for that 91 80 sorry 91 60 to 92 level as the next upside objective for crude looking pretty bullish at the moment bitcoin now on the daily timeframe and we'll just jump to that so you can see where we are sitting with our bitcoin position bitcoin is testing the major ascending trend line support third test here any loss of that on a closing basis is going to be a bearish development and to be honest with you looking at the channel at the moment that we're trading in it's we haven't really got bullish signals and such to to cling on to here at best what we can look for at the moment will be a three wave move into the 45 94 level which could set up there another extension to the downside and we have an equality objective versus the swing high here 52 52,265 which would actually take us down sub 30 into 28,388 before we would complete this this sequence that we're currently in when i'm talking about the equality objective just for those who are here in the first time what we're talking about is this swing structure here and that gives us the target before the correction we have a technically complete pattern so at this juncture to for me to get bullish we really need to break this trend line resistance projected trend line resistance comes in just around 48,000 we get a daily close a couple of daily closes through there and that would would be a bullish development and then we start to think about outside objectives but for now whilst we hold 45,900 it's it's further down side is my bet at this stage dolly yen trading in a correct apartment moment so we have i'll just jump out to the daily here you can see the trend line support that we're looking at there's this daily trend line from those lows printed at 102,60s so what we're looking for here is third test so going back to four now you can see we have a pretty nice pattern to play for here so as this trend line resistance continues to hold 114,70s look for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side ultimately looking for a test of the equality objective versus this swing structure here 112,30s and then that major ascending trend line support also coming in there so bullish reversal patterns there will be an opportunity to re-engage on the long side and we still have upside objectives above the 117 handle on the daily time frame at this stage to to suggest this current correction is done and dusted we really want to get a break through the descending trend line resistance and take out 115 and then it would be a question of looking at pullbacks to get long looking for about one looking for a test above that 117 handle dollar CAD also from a daily perspective sitting right on its trend line support so if the dollar index is going to break high we really want to see this dollar CAD make a move through this trend line resistance here 125,50s to engage then on the long side ultimately then looking for a daily move jump out to the daily and just show so if we can get a close back through the pivot here 125,50, 125,60 opens up a 132 equality objective versus this swing structure here and the swing low at 122,90s we're trying to defend it but still yet to get that really bullish close to to encourage us to deploy long positions obviously any break back through this double bottom here 124,50s will be a bearish development and then I'll be looking to play for for a downside I think out through the channel euro dollar looking for a potential third test of the ascending trend line support here if we don't find buyers at that level and we break through then I'm looking for the descending trend sort of the descending wedge pattern again we'll just quickly jump out to the daily here and I'll I like that for you it's a bit clearer so we've had a false break here we can break the trend line support I'm looking for a test down close to 110 and that coincides with a big monthly trend line again talked about this last night and that could be a really meaningful spot for the euro dollar to to put in a stand and potentially mark a significant low any break of the 110 would be significant bearish development to my mind we take out that monthly trend line and then we'd be in with the new paradigm really for the euro we're opening up significant downside targets but for now we'll see how we trade out the trend line if we hold it which reversals and I'll I'll look to re-engage on the long side but my senses at this stage that we take it out and the dollar looks to grind higher and you'll write down to that on 10 and then we'll see what we can do on the long side but first of all of course it's going to be that trend line and we'll see how prices respond from there euro sterling this one is on the radar now we have this big daily descending wage pattern which has a target now down at 8290 so what I'm looking for here is this uh we've got a nice five wave sequence to track here and this we are going to call our way four our way three so we're looking for a fifth wave extension into this 8290 and then from there we want to see bullish reversal patterns accompanied sorry accompanied and maintaining the um bullish divergence that we have here on our momentum indicator side indicator so as long as we maintain the divergence we get the bullish reversal pattern and I'm going to be engaging on the long side and we want to see initially a break of this trend line resistance here to encourage further upside and certainly we'll think about high volume there up towards 8550 as the initial upside objective and what should be a more significant corrective pattern sterling this one uh still in the bullish sequence for now and I'm looking for any tests into 13550 the projected channel support here which were bullish reversal patterns on the long side then and we're looking for a test up into the 13820s as the next upside objective for sterling so keep to see high price response at 13550s bullish reversal patterns there and we will be looking for upside objectives to complete a nice five wave sequence from the uh the nose there from there we anticipate pullback more extended pullback in a more significant three-way sequence and then we look again on the long side in terms of sterling at this stage uh close below that 135 will be a a warning to the bulls and we could be looking down then towards the retest of these price cycle lows 13170s and on the daily time frame uh I'll just show you what we're going to do downside but if we do roll over here we still have that uh x that y objective 130 versus those 14830s so keep that in mind if we don't find support at that 13550 channel this I got on watch here sterling yen similar scenario really to the uh or similar structure so to speak to the sterling dollar I'm looking for a fourth wave load to complete here in a wedge scenario so if we uh if we give another swing down into projected daily range support and the descending trend channel which with bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side and we're looking for breakouts and certainly think about a retest of these price cycle highs 15816 with the potential for a move towards 159 is what I'm looking for in terms of sterling yen sterling kiwi looking for one more one more attempt higher here we have an equality objective that remains just shy of being tested so this is this one structure here we are looking for one uh sorry two 201 91 to get tested so let's pull back find support at the pivot we look for a move into that area and again important for us in terms of the bearish to play this counter trend we must maintain the divergence if we do there we watch a bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side certainly think about a move back to the one 9870s which is a symmetry swing target versus that last meaningful correction that we've had in this leg to the outside so that's what's what i'm tracking in terms of the sterling kiwi now if we take the trend line out from the current levels then this gives us this target here back into the equality objective one 9830s again we still have opportunities there on the long side and recently it's uh it becomes a little bit more challenging but as long as this move for this leg occurs in a three-way sequence you can see because we did the last time here you got that three-way move and that's what we're always looking for to confirm a correction so as long as this if we do break the trend line it's a three-way cycle and we can still look to engage on the long side and looking for another leg to the outside. Ozzy if we hold this trend line support then we are ultimately looking for the Ozzy to to move higher here and the target we have to draw this in for you so versus the swing structure here we actually have an equality objective that comes in just above the trend line at the 74 handle so what i anticipate we'll get here now is a little bit overdone in terms of momentum at the moment on the upside so pull back to back into this 72 handle as long as we get the bullish reversals there then i've been looking on the long side and looking for a push up into this 74 test now if that Ozzy pattern plays out you won't bear in mind that that would suggest that the dollar CAD fails at its trend line so that's an important correlation to keep in mind another one i'm looking at here is the Ozzy CAD this is giving us a setup today last trade we had in this was this inverse seven shoulders that worked out really nicely and what we've got here with the Ozzy CAD is a potential meaningful double bottom now so the trade for me here is that we take out the trend line resistance we then get that first pull back and i know this Ozzy CAD loves these inverse seven shoulders patterns so looking for a pull back then into the 1940s to gauge on the long side minimum upside objective into that 91 70s and potentially we have a more meaningful low in place in terms of the double bottom and then we can look at range resistance up towards the 93 the key obviously is going to be the break of that of that trend line before i could get excited about that one and that pretty much can let's just take a quick look at the key we're looking to hold its trend line support here although numerous tests suggest it could be weakening and and so i know i'm going to keep an eye on closes below this trend line support as potential opportunities really to from the community to to roll over here and moves back in then the test the trend line support as resistance with bearish reversal patterns i think we're going to be opportunities to look on the short side in terms of the key we which just at this stage does look weaker than then it's obviously counterpart so those are the trades i'm tracking at the moment and the opportunities i see in the sessions ahead which is really nice high probability plays there to keep an eye on for those of you who want to keep abreast of the trade alerts that i share i will put into the chat the tick mill trading view trade ideas link and for those who are interested in joining the the e-mini futures strategy group the the first one that i referenced the facebook group it's uh there's all you have to do is request membership there's no additional obligations there and you can receive my daily trade plan posted before the market opens in the us with all the specific trade levels i also provide i also share some institutional research there so you can see how the big boys banks uh investment banks positioning themselves uh for for the markets as well which is useful and then if you're interested in taking it to the next level i guess and thinking about um joining the tick mill trading uh tick mill trading telegram channel uh that i talked about you know i'll post my linked in um by there you can dm me through linked in or alternatively you can catch me on my email patrick dot monthly at tick mill partners dot com so that's uh that's me done for now are there any questions you can type them into the chat box or into the q&a any pairs you might want to take a look at that i haven't covered in uh in my opportunity sets equally if you don't have a question if you type an n in the chat box it's helpful so i know that we're all on the same page and i've done a reasonable job of explaining what it is i'm looking at and what i'm looking to trade in the coming sessions okay so don't see any questions coming through at the moment so i'm going to take that as uh we're all good to go and uh we'll leave this uh this session now and we'll reconvene at the same time next week or i hope to see some of you in the tick mill futures strategy group and uh i'm following along with the trade ideas through the tick mill trading as always traders plan the trades trade the plan most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much