 Welcome to the Australian National University and to this event launching the ANU Southeast Asia Institute. My name is Robert Creweb. I'm the convener of the Institute. Before we begin proceedings, I'd like to acknowledge and celebrate the first Australians on whose traditional lands we meet and to pay respects on behalf of all of us to the elders of the Ngunnawal people past and present. Today's event will commence with a lecture by a distinguished guest and to introduce him I invite to the podium Professor Andrew McIntyre, Dean of the ANU College of Asia and Pacific. Thank you Robert. Dr Surin colleagues are wonderful to have so many people here this evening. It's a particular pleasure for me to introduce Dr Surin Abdul Halim bin Ismail bin Swann and to have him here to launch our new Southeast Asia Institute. I think it's fair to say that Surin is probably one of the most internationally well-known Southeast Asians going round in the world today. But it's not his fame and celebrity status that make him so appropriate for the role that he's here today for. It's the combination of experiences and achievements over the course of his life that make him so well suited because if anyone can lay claim to having not just great national credentials in Southeast Asia but great Southeast Asian credentials, it's surely Surin. Heading from Southern Thailand Surin has a strong Islamic and Malay heritage even while growing up in a family integrated into the broad spectrum of Thai society. He studied at both Tummasut and Clermont-Benkenna before undertaking his masters and doctorate at Harvard. Locals will be amused that the Silver Fox is claiming some credit for this. He says he helped Surin along in some way but as we know the Silver Fox claims credit for lots of things. He's been a researcher and a teacher at Tummasut and American University in both Cairo and Washington, D.C. where appropriately enough he taught a course in Southeast Asian Affairs. He was also academic assistant to the dean at Tummasut, Lucky Dean and vice-rector at Tummasut, Lucky Rector before parliamentary career called him on. He entered parliament in 1986 and amongst a whole range of roles. He served as deputy leader of the Democratic Party and foreign minister from 97 to 2001 which by my reckoning up to that point must have been one of the longest serving foreign ministers in Thai political history or modern Thai political history. And it was while he was serving as foreign minister he started to take on major Southeast Asian roles in particular chairing the ASEAN Regional Forum from 1999 to 2000 and it was in that capacity as chair of the ASEAN Regional Forum that he played such a critical role in mobilising support around Southeast Asia for participation in and with the UN peacekeeping operations in East Timor. And this was truly a significant change in the dynamics of international relations around Southeast Asia to see that sort of engagement by other governments in a domestic matter or what began as a domestic matter. And of course as we all know him today he serves now as secretary-general of ASEAN itself. If I look at Surin's life such as I understand it, what stands out for me is it's a life of ideas, it's a life of action, it's a life of compassion both within and across Southeast Asian borders both formal borders and informal borders. If anyone can lay claim to being a Southeast Asian today it's surely Dr Surin, colleagues Dr Surin. Thank you very much Professor McIntyre. As I recall the only relationship I have with Jim Fox was we courted the same graduate student. Both of us lost. But colleagues, students, ladies and gentlemen it is a great great honour for me to stand in front of you at the launch of this institute. And I just say that congratulations A&U for discovering Southeast Asia. We have discovered you long, long time ago. But I think it is good that you would put all the resources, both the human and the books and the literature that you have, the experiences that you have, the sentiments and the engagement with the region that you have into one centre. So from now on you can focus and you can make a contribution on the evolution of that region of the world which is extremely important to you, very contiguous to you and certainly a bridge and a centre of gravity, centre of action now. When I was asked to serve as Secretary General of RCM back in 2008 precisely I look at the landscape and I thought I have established enough of the connectivity, enough of the connections, enough of the relations that I could promote Southeast Asia RCM not only in its own consolidation and building of our community but certainly with the various major dialogue partners that have been part of our evolution all along since 1967. For your information Australia is the first dialogue partner that ASEAN has established with anybody. In the year 2014 you will be celebrating the 40th anniversary of your dialogue partnership with us. And this dialogue partnership is something that is very uniquely ASEAN. It is not only the 10 countries but it is the relationship with the dialogue partners that help us grow, evolve and are able to establish ourselves in this new landscape of growth of dynamism called East Asia. We began in a reverse order from the European Union. The European Union began with major powers, major economies working on functional issues. Trying to avoid war, yes, but working on steel, on coal, working on energy. And then through the years the European Union, the European, whatever it is come on market have been able to bring in smaller countries to work with them. Now it is 27. ASEAN began in 1967 precisely for the reverse reason. There was an African Asia summit or meeting or pandoon conference as you remember and those major personalities somehow gave the leaders of ASEAN some pause for reflection. If we were to be dragged on to that stage, we would have lost our identity. We wouldn't be able to have our own stage, be ourselves and keep our own agenda. The like of Nasser, the like of Nehru, the like of Jo and Lai, the like of Nkrumah, the like of Tito. We remember all those personalities. ASEAN decided that we needed a forum, we needed a forum small to ourselves so that we can be ourselves. So from the very beginning the idea was not to evolve a political union because we were all different. The idea was to create a group of countries in this region so that we can coordinate some of the policies that we could not interfering in each other's internal domestic issues. So the principle of non-interference from the very beginning. Two roads, two objectives of ASEAN from the very beginning, not very well articulated but we have been able to achieve that. One is the march of democracy. Sounds very pompous but slowly opening up, slowly giving space to people, slowly civil society group, slowly the media is being more active, slowly academic freedom in all of us have been open up more and more and more and now I guess we can say that as a region it is a very, very open and dynamic. Some of us are very noisy. Indonesia and Thailand would like to describe ourselves as noisy democracies. But it is open, they are open and now we are. So from 1967 most of us were very central. Most of us were authoritarian, cannot comment. The person who conceived of the idea of ASEAN served under the military rule. Sarit and Tano. I think Professor Reynolds would remember that. That generation would remember that. I'm not saying that you are old, Professor Reynolds, where are you? So you know, we began with a very centralized set of countries. Now many of us have opened up. Some of us are doing better, doing more than others. But on the road of opening up, of participation, of at least adopt the instruments of market economy and flourish as a result. The other one is economic development for sure. From 1967 until now you would have given us some credit. For accomplishment, for success in the economic management together. The Japanese came in the 60s, in the 70s. The Taiwanese came, the Koreans came. Looking for a place where natural resources were abundant, cheap labor. But at the same time, they could relocate what they call sunset industries to all parts of the world. That's how it began. And then we ourselves started with import substitution industries. Industries that would produce products that we need for our own market. Slowly those countries who came to invest began to use us as production base for export. Prosperity has been achieved step by step. To the point where we are considered a middle income region. Except Singapore and Brunei, they are above that. But middle income and doing quite well, attractive to a lot of investors. So the dual purposes of ASEAN from the beginning, we have pretty much achieved and successful in the two objectives. Opening up the governance, the political structure and economic prosperity. The model of growth of all of us from the beginning was capital from outside to invest in us. Technology from outside to come to power those factories. Management came from outside toward the end we produced for the outside market. But that formula at work has served us well. And now we are in the process of trying to figure out how not to be caught in this middle income trap. Which is labor intensive, outside technology, outside management, abundant resources. We are no longer abundant. Labor is no longer cheap. We can't compete with India and China on that model. So all ten of us now working feverishly trying to find a way out of this trap. Meaning we have to invest more in the technology, in the science, in the development, in the innovation. In trying to manage our economies in a way that we would be able to absorb all the elements from the region and from the global community. And be able to produce effectively both goods and services for the global market. The reason that has kept us together is that very much competing with the global community, competing with China, competing with India at this point. In the 80s there was a phrase coming out of our leaders. India and China are sucking out oxygen from Southeast Asia investment. So we adopted a new strategy and that is consolidate among ourselves. Make sure that this is a 600 million consumers market, one integrated market, one production base and competitive among the emerging markets together. And are able to integrate ourselves seamlessly into the global market place. Those are the four elements that we have been working on. For our economic community, one integrated market, competitive, equitable among ourselves. In other words there's not too big a gap, there's still a big gap among the membership and then are able to work with the world, benefit from the world, integrate into the global community. Those are the four objectives that we are working on. And dialogue partners are important because things have changed, the landscape has changed. It is no longer Southeast Asia in a distance. It is Southeast Asia that is in the middle of the growth centre of the world. So you can't ignore strategic issues. You can't ignore partners who can help you balance the contending forces or posting forces playing in the region. And that's why there is more than just establishing an ASEAN community, economic, political and socio-cultural. Consolidate ourselves, make sure that we are one production base, make sure that we are one consuming market. But also we evolve architectures of cooperation on other issues that are important to keep the region stable and secure and balanced. It was Henry Kissinger who said at the end of last century that East Asia as far as innovation, economic, prosperity, growth, East Asia is comparable to 20th century Europe. He said it at the end of last century. But as far as systems, institutions, process that would take care of any problems that could come up between them and among them and there are a lot of them. Clash points, historical baggage. He said East Asia is pretty much 19th century Europe. ASEAN has been responding to that observation. We have to create institutions, we have to create systems and processes so that contending powers into this region can find at least a fulcrum, can find a form and find a stage that somehow we can balance out their interests. That's ASEAN centrality. That's ASEAN sitting in the driver's seat. That's ASEAN trying to play that role that other major powers in the region would have difficulties playing. The Japanese would not trust the Chinese and vice versa. The Koreans would not trust the Japanese. The Indians would not trust the Chinese. Would Australia trust New Zealand? We were talking at the Foreign Ministry this morning that what's going on between Australia and Southeast Asia and ASEAN is both in the open, formal, diplomatic, recognized and the subterranean relationship. We have done a great deal, we have done a lot together. Professor McIntyre, you mentioned East Timor. Are there other things that we have worked together? In 1999, East Timor, I was in the chair. ASEAN would have been diminished in our profile, in the confidence that the international community would have for us, about us. If somehow we could not make any contribution, not ambitious enough to say that we could solve it, the fire in East Timor. But at least we have to show the world that we are willing to take part. You remember there was an apex summit in Auckland in September? Usually it would be in November, but when it came to the southern hemisphere it would be too hot. It would be in your holidays. Therefore, at that time, Prime Minister Chip Lee moved it to September. And East Timor was burned. And Australia was under pressure. And we up there were thinking there must be a way that we can help. Because this is in our backyard, this is in our conduct. But how to connect with Australia? Knowing that there is a lot of hesitation about Australia in East Timor. I'm not going to go into details. So before leaving Andrew Air Force Base, Mr. Clinton made a very, very strong statement. Appealing, pressuring Jakarta to open up. Let the international force in to help you. Mr. Howard called my Prime Minister, Chair Pasi, at that time. Please do something as Chair Pasi. Mr. Kofi Annan called from New York into Bangkok. A lot of expectation, a lot of pressure. All these things is behind the scenes. What you saw was an ASEAN decision in Auckland, saying that we would go and participate at the level, at the point, member states where we are prepared to enter. It was not an ASEAN decision. Because some of the ASEAN countries were very reluctant. We are not prepared. We are not ready. We are not going to interfere or fear that such thing would happen to them. So non-interference was sacred because we don't want you to barge into our country if something happened similar to what happened in East Timor. So I went from Auckland, I went to Jakarta. And first I was conducted to meet with General Veranto, who was the Chief of the Armed Forces. We had this to say, please come, ASEAN, Asian, come in large number. We want to see your faces in East Timor. Then I was conducted to the Presidential Palace, President Habibi. Please come. Same formula, come in large number. We want to see your friendly faces on East Timor. But he went further. Take the commandership of the international force being put together. And if you can't, give it to one of the Nordic countries. You read between the lines. You see the subtlety. What he meant without saying is, please don't give it to Australia. But he didn't have to say. And I said, Mr President, we are not going to come that large, that big. We don't have the resources. We don't have the technology. I said, discuss with the Nordic countries. Anyone would be better than Australia. He didn't say it. We were in the middle of the crisis, you remember. 1999, we were in the middle of the crisis. How could we send, in the case of Thailand, 1,800 troops, the Philippines, 1,700 troops? We had to go to the Japanese. And the Japanese asked us how much you want. He said, 50 million would be good. And the permanent representative at the UN said, give me 24 hours, I'll give you the answer tomorrow. The next morning he called us. He said, I can do better than what you asked for. Tokyo authorized me to give you 100 million. Together we were able, in our language, to put law and to re-establish law and order in East Timor. A lot of people don't know this below the surface. Dealing, discussion, planning, and coordination. And the success of East Timor, yes, Mr Macintosh. Somewhat has changed ASEAN's concept of absolute non-interference. That we could make a contribution, that we could help maintain or re-establish law and order. And it is to over-created that General Cross Grove would take a tie as his deputy. That he would give the ASEAN elements there. Some of them were just with the flight. Some of them were just with medical team. But they were there to give us the space to give us the opportunity to play our role. Not as ASEAN, but as separate neighbors. Because we couldn't use ASEAN yet at that time. Because it's not ASEAN. So a lot of these things were part and parcel of the experiences that we have gone through together. Difficult periods of our history. In the year 2000, Thailand ran a candidate for the WTO. Our deputy prime minister. Your neighbor to the south ran its own former prime minister, Mike Moore. It's the only international campaign that I'm aware of that Australia and New Zealand walk apart. Australia supported a candidate from ASEAN. New Zealand had its own candidate. Even more funny than that. It's the only international campaign that India-Pakistan came together. Supported the candidate from ASEAN. A lot of these anecdotes are important for our trust, our confidence. And forming a foundation for the relationship, for the cooperation that we have with Asia. The landscape of East Asia is full of flashbacks. Australia for the past three, four decades has been working on re-establishing your own connection with countries of Southeast Asia. As a bridge to the larger landscape of East Asia in general. Because before that, the perception was a European country happened to be in the eastern part of the globe. That was the impression from here and that was the impression from there. But when Southeast Asia grew systematically, steadily, economically, through that infusion of resources, of investment, of technology, of management, of Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and we were able to achieve our own steady growth. It was about time that Australia looked up. And we appreciate it. Something is happening that Australia would like to be a part of. That Australia sees it as a strategic advantage to be connected with that part. Going to a larger landscape of East Asia. That's when the idea of APEC came into being. Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation. It was your idea. But it was welcome. And it was supported. And it became an architecture for economic cooperation in East Asia. Later on, others joined. But my point is the sentiments, the proximity, and the timely way of which we adjust our own perceptions of each other. Help form a foundation for stronger and closer cooperation between Australia and the countries of Southeast Asia, in this case, Asia. And I hope that we will continue to be on that road. I hope that we will continue to work together on many, many other issues. A lot of issues you can't solve your own. It's human smuggling, drought, terrorism, environments, climates. All these things are issues without borders. It's issues without passports, issues without visas. And I think you have established a lot of working relationship effective with many of us up there. To make sure that some of these problems are handled and managed up there effectively. You've been working with our immigration people. You've been working with our law enforcement people. You've been working with our customs people. These are the kind of things that I think afford Australia with a lot of benefits and a lot of problems. These are the kind of things that keep Australia a lucky country because you are no longer isolated. The ocean is the connectivity. You remember what happened in Hong Kong in the late 90s? There are in 24 hours Toronto suffering from the same disease. How did it get there? Before globalization, it wouldn't get there that fast anyway. So, a lot of opportunities. A centre of new gravity. A lot of problems, a lot of challenges. We appreciate your support, your posturing and your understanding that only working together and ASEAN is that institution, that organization in the region that has been coordinating on all these issues. Discuss with defect people this morning. Of course you have your bilateral relationship, bilateral programs, bilateral activities with a lot of countries in ASEAN. But keep the ASEAN perspective in. If you help train human resources, how does this contribute to the larger frame of ASEAN? If you help infrastructure, how does this stretch up road if you want to do it? Going to help the connectivity of ASEAN. We are working on all those issues and it would be extremely helpful if our dialogue partners in Australia would also keep that in mind that there is a larger picture going on and you are going to contribute that organization, that group of countries to behave as a group to cooperate effectively managing their own problems. If they succeed, the result of that success is also going to be yours because we are not that far apart. So myself, I've been trying to tell our friends in the region that you can't keep external partners out of the region. ASEAN is in the center of the new growth center of the world. Everybody has an interest in this part of the world because we have become more important to the world than 5 years ago, than 10 years ago as a result of what's happening in Europe and North America. So it's not right, it's irrational and you can't do it. Everybody is going to come on to this landscape. The only thing that ASEAN can do is learn to handle the contending of opposing forces. And external powers rivalry in our region will play itself out on the ASEAN stage nowhere else because there's no others. You'll have to be on the ASEAN stage. And we have to learn how to manage that too. We have learned that we could maintain peace, we could maintain stability among ourselves. I couldn't imagine Southeast Asia without ASEAN. We have problems, yes. But we have not made those problems more critical or much in the open. Tonight the President of the Philippines is coming here. The Philippines has not raised the issue of Sabah because of the ASEAN spirit. You think Thailand and Cambodia are having problems? Yes, but without ASEAN it would be worse. We all appeal to the spirit of ASEAN. By the way, it's a very interesting issue, this Thailand and Cambodia. Two Buddhist countries fighting over a Hindu ruin. Here's the punchline. And I had a joke with Minister Mahdi about this. Two Muslims are mediating. And we have been able to contain it. He said we note, I call him up, you know, we compare notes. And I said, Mahdi, it's rather ionic, isn't it? Two Buddhist, one of them happened to be mine, two Buddhist countries fighting over a Hindu ruin. But two Muslims are mediating them, need to end them. But we have been able to at least calm things down. The first time, and I will stop at this, that I realized that the pendulum has shifted was at the beginning of my own term as Secretary General of ASEAN. Australia was campaigning to be a member of the Asia-Europe summit. I was transiting in Hong Kong, I got a call from here, camera. Do something about it. We want to be in. And I said, I'm not in, I have the power to get them in, but certainly I'll do what I can when the opportunity comes. But here is this. In the great hall of the people in Beijing, the seat of the Communist Party, the Prime Minister of China, Mr. Wen Jiabao, sat at the head of the table, chair 48 members from Europe and from Asia, including all the ASEAN members, they were in that group. Borosconi, Mr. Boroso, Mr. Merkel, all the rest. Tony Blair didn't make it. He sent David Millerman. That was October 2008. That was the beginning of the crisis. But they could feel the magnitude in Europe. That this is going to be big. And you know what the European leaders said? From Merkel to Boroso to Borosconi, please East Asia, please China, keep it open, keep it humming, keep buying, keep importing from us. In the great hall of the people. And David Millerman took me at the side and said, Mr. Secretary General, this is a very strange meeting indeed. We from the market economies, we from the West, we are asking a communist country to help. Things have changed, pendulum have shifted, and we are managing those changes together. The friendship, the support, the cooperation that Australia has given to us has been helpful for us to realize the opportunities, for us to be able to face the challenges, to manage many challenges coming our way. We asked the center of that new gravity of the world. Economic growth could only survive together because of the long history. Human, cultural, historical, political, street teaching that we have gone through together. From our perspective, in our eyes, you have been transformed. You are now part of us, and we hope from your perspective, in your eyes, we have also been helpful, contributing, and helping you, managing your own challenges, your own problems. Thank you very much. Do you envision a future where Arsene is awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for his peace and career? On the flip side, what lessons do you think that Arsene can draw from the challenges that are being faced in Europe? We are not in a hurry to have one currency. It has never been on the table anyway. No, I think Europe, in hindsight, I thought we would get it when they said international organizations would not get it. No, I think Europe has delivered a great, great service to themselves, among themselves, and it is important that they could settle the differences or are able to manage the differences, historical, deep, very, very bitter history between themselves. We have become a successful regional organization. It's a model of regional organization. So peace, stability, security that they have been able to maintain, and their willingness to engage with the world, trying to share the experiences. I think it's normal. They are helping us, too. But I have also been saying that because of the differences in which we came into being the two organizations, Europe is our inspiration. But it cannot be our model because of the tremendous diversity that we have within our membership. But we take inspiration from Europe. A lot of things that have been achieved would be great if we could achieve. It cannot be our model. We are not a union. We have different norms, values, history, language, everything. It's difficult to see one union as a union. I think we are on the right road. I think we are contributing to our own region. And being that colonel, which is Clinton called as falcon, of emerging architectures in the region, some call us the centrality. I think if we can continue to play this role and can contribute to the evolution of East Asia as a community, small sea, small sea community, and that's what is happening. If we are able to do this into the future, why not a Nobel Prize? But certainly you will be taking part of the credit. How much people do you think the impact of the current sub-China relationship has entered on economic cooperation between ASEAN and China? Not much. Because it's our largest training partner. It's about 300 billion US dollars a year. About 70 billion between Australia and ASEAN. Growth is about 15, 20 percent a year, always in China's favor. But the tension there is not affecting trade. Investment is not big enough. China, we've been telling China, look, this cannot be sustained. Growth, 15, 20 percent a year, and the bounce of trade in your favor, 20, 30 billion US dollars a year, this cannot be sustained. Not to be some more investment coming from it. But it's not that much. What will happen is this, which is a lot of Japanese investment in China will find a way to satisfy it. For a similar reason, but not the same reason. They have their own problems. So the rise of China, the way you are witnessing, is giving a lot of anxiety in the region. And the result of that anxiety is different from different parts, to different parts. A lot of Japanese interest, a lot of Japanese investment is looking south to southern Asia. Korea is not feeling much yet. Prosperous, stable, secure, open, integrated, so to say, is in the interest of China. So you will see this rise of China, flexing muscle of China, is having impact in different ways and manifests in different forms in the region. At this point, trade with China is not important. How important to China? I mean, if it's going to be lower, it's not because of the conflict. Because the Chinese market, the Chinese economy itself, is slowing down. This has been a rich and encouraging presentation to us. It's rich in its analysis of the strengths and the prospects of ASEAN, rich in your own personal experience, but also encouraging for both for the future of ASEAN and for the role that Australia can play in the development of the region. Promise me one thing. You have found, somebody says, here, don't lose it. Thank you. I was going to say that we've unrealised as you spoke that unwittingly we've learnt something from ASEAN in constructing this institute. We respect the national integrity, the distinct identities of the component members, but we work in a framework that identifies a Southeast Asian identity. Even more than that, we compete more broadly. We have something to give to the rest of Asia and to Australia and to the world. And I don't think we're going to get a Nobel Prize for it. We might do it. You'll get the chair with us. Could I begin by adding my warmest welcome to Dr Surin and again to thank him for I think a really masterful presentation. And it's a great pleasure to welcome you back here to the Australian National University. A little bit of history. When AMU was founded in 1946, a central part of the mandate of this university was to study the states, societies and cultures of our region. There was of course a strategic dimension to that mandate coming at the end of the Second World War. Australia very much wanted to understand its environment in order to avoid future surprises, I think, very much. But there was also a strong feeling that Australia's future would be entwined with its neighbours that was shared with many in Asia and the Pacific for that matter, a set of aspirations for things like prosperity, democracy and justice, and that we might more quickly achieve these aspirations by working together. And I think those were some of the underpinning elements that really were before the establishment of this university. There was also, I think, a realisation that Australian culture could be enriched by the deep cultural resources present in Asia. And I do think if you look at Australia today and the multicultural nature of that and how Australian society has been shaped by Asia compared to where it was at the end of the Second World War, I think you can see how this country has been transformed. The Australian National University in establishing what was then the search school of the civic studies was at the forefront of Australia's post-war engagement with Asia. Southeast Asia has been central, I think, to the ANU mission of engagement with Asia in terms of things like trade or educational engagement, diplomatic cooperation, strategic importance, tourism, human engagement. No region of the world is more important to Australia and to Australia's future than, indeed, Southeast Asia. And indeed, if I could do a little bit of advertising now, there's no university, I think, in the world with a stronger and broader record in Southeast Asian studies than ANU. Our contributions to the study of countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam have been really quite remarkable. We have an outstanding team of scholars engaged with the work, indeed, of ASEAN. The Australian National University is, for instance, the only university in Australia which has consistently taught languages such as Indonesian, Thai, Vietnamese and Japanese, as well as offering Burmese and Tatum from time to time. I think it's a remarkable record in Asian languages. Now, after nearly seven decades, as we've heard, we've discovered Southeast Asia. We are taking a step which some might say is indeed long overdue by creating an institute which will bind these various elements of the university together. The ANU Southeast Asian Institute will bring together the university's expertise on this complex and diverse region and will act as a window for world on the university's incomparable expertise in Southeast Asian affairs. So I think it's a remarkable ability to pull together the many elements of this university which are really quite remarkable. So this evening's event, I hope, is the first of many that will strengthen the impact of ANU on this important field. I'd like to thank in particular Andrew McIntyre and his team for their tremendous work in bringing the ANU Southeast Asia Institute together for bringing it to this point. And I have very much a pleasure in well and truly declaring the Institute launched. Congratulations.