 Everyone talks about the Korean Peninsula as a possible powder keg for conflicts between the major world powers. This usually stems from the fact that North Korea and South Korea generally have completely different allies, caused by the different styles of government both regimes have, which itself is a product of which countries had control over them in recent decades. There's a lot more that meets the eye when talking about Korean geopolitics though, and today I will explain some possible developments that I see as probable. The recent history of Korea has been marked by their occupation under Japan, the USSR, and the United States. Starting in 1910, Japan had complete control over Korea, and this possession gave them the land they needed to start invasions of mainland Asia. Manchuria became a Japanese puppet in 1931. When the Second Sino-Japanese War, partly concurrent with World War II, began in 1937, Japan's holdings in mainland Asia became a major launching point for their invasions of China. The wars ended in 1945 with the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the United States. Japan as a whole was occupied by the US, while the Korean Peninsula became split between the Soviet occupation in North and American occupation in the South on the 38th parallel. Both North and South Korea gained nominal independence from their occupiers in 1948, though both the USSR and US kept large military, political, and economic presence in their respective Koreas. Following an invasion by the North in 1950, the Korean War began, initiating three years of violence on the peninsula. The North almost conquered the entire peninsula until the South was able to rebound with the help of the US and its NATO allies. Reaching the Chinese border with North Korea prompted the People's Republic to join in the side of North Korea, ultimately causing the front lines to return to nearly where they were before the war began, creating the modern-day Korean border lines and demilitarized zone. Both countries remained under dictatorships, with the North under the totalitarian rule of Kim Il-sung, while the South remained under a series of military dictatorships until 1987, when it became a democratic republic, but an actual one, not in the sense in which North Korea uses the term. Kim's regime maintained ties primarily with the Soviet Union at first, but also became closer to China as Mao's regime emerged victorious in the Chinese Civil War, and helped Kim stay in power in the Korean War. After the Sino-Soviet split, North Korea tried to keep relations with both countries due to its proximity to both, yet due to this it became part of the competition for influence between China and the USSR. The main ally of South Korea was and still is the United States, due to the massive influence America has over the country. Also, South Korea had no other close allies in the region. The lack of contact between the Eastern Bloc nations and those nations' mutual animosity with the United States removed a lot of potential partners. Arguably, the nation of which South Korea has the worst relations is the other major American ally in the region, Japan. Due to the negative relations between Koreans and Japanese during their occupation of the peninsula, there has been a great potential for dispute between the two countries. This bilateral relationship is very important in understanding what could happen in the region, and I will get to this soon. After the fall of the Soviet Union, North Korea became much more insecure as it had lost one of its major partners. A great famine plagued the country from 1994 to 98, killing an unknown number of people, ranging from just a few hundred thousand to a couple million. North Korea ultimately built a close partnership with China, and though having ups and downs in the decades since, has remained generally strong. Russia's influence in North Korea today is virtually non-existent, and the country's relations seem to be deteriorating also, making a new power balance in the Korean Peninsula. Meanwhile, South Korea has maintained most of the same military allies since the end of the Cold War, though they have also opened up economic ties with China and Russia, with the former's economic relations being particularly strong. Relations with Japan have been deteriorating, with both country's citizens having very negative perceptions of the others. I would say that the American military posts in both countries have been the only thing preventing these countries from outright conflict. Now, let's take some time into looking at how the history of the geopolitics of Korea is bound to affect the future of the peninsula. The first thing I want to discuss is the relationship between North Korea and China. Though both countries remain allies, there is some distrust among the Chinese about North Korea, due in part due to its nuclear program and its aggressive stance in global politics. North Korea serves as a vital buffer state for China between it and American influence in South Korea. However, if American influence is reduced in South Korea, for a variety of reasons that I will explain, or Chinese influence in South Korea has expanded enough, the need for North Korea's existence will cease, and they will just remain a burden for China. In short, once China does not need North Korea to exist anymore, they will gradually absorb the country. But I hear you ask, why don't they just absorb the country right now? Well, America currently cares a lot about its foothold in South Korea, and China must not provoke any action by the United States in their absorption of a country that borders a U.S. ally. South Korea's position is quite different. It does not face any major threats to its status quo, since the United States would defend them from any invasion from North Korea or China, both unlikely, and their position in Japan prevents any conflict between the two adversaries. However, this animosity between Japan and South Korea severely complicates American goals in the region. If Japan is perceived as growing in influence, such as its claim that it wished to defend Taiwan from an invasion from China, South Korea may feel its status quo is under threat. Not wanting to be under Japanese influence, the growing economic partnership between South Korea and China could cause South Korea to take a more neutral position in global geopolitics, as it could acquire a more regional ally that also is an adversary to Japan. It could also take the neutral position taken by Thailand or Singapore to be able to have strong economic and military ties with both the Chinese block and the American block, an ally with whomever fits their interests best. However, South Korea would definitely need to be careful in its friendship with China. If China makes a play on Russia's Far East and annexes Manchuria, their waters would be split in two by South Korea, and the country may quickly become a naval base and checkpoint for China, so its navy does not have to operate in two separate disconnected waters. China could not risk allowing Japan to block their navy from connecting, so making South Korea the hub for their navy would be the smartest move for them. This would put South Korea under deep Chinese influence though, a position they did not necessarily ask for. However, there are other forces at play here. First of all, in a world shaped by the growing rivalry between China and the United States, I doubt that the Americans will leave their very strategic location in South Korea. Also, the South Koreans are not very interested in the Americans leaving at all, due to the strong ties between the countries, which are some of the strongest in the world. This brings me to my second point, which is cultural exchange. South Korea has imported a lot of cultural aspects of the West, including its democratic system and capitalist economy, among others. In turn, in the West, in particular the United States, has seen a massive growth in the popularity of Korean culture. About 2.5 million Koreans live in America, particularly on the West Coast, and have influenced local cuisine, but by far their greatest influences in the media. Korean music, particularly K-pop, has become widely popular in the West, and the new show Squid Game is the latest example of American and broadly Western appreciation for Korean creations. The West also uses Korean technology, like Samsung, and uses Korean cars, like Hyundai and Kia. This cultural binding of South Korea and the West seems to only be growing, and for the connection to break easily seems to be out of the question. My best guess going forward, at least in the foreseeable future, is that if relations are to further deteriorate between South Korea and Japan, the United States will have to find a way to put a halt on that dispute one way or another, as both allies are vital. In conclusion, I do think it is a possibility that South Korea could change its position in global geopolitics to a more neutral stance between China and the US, though I don't think this will happen for many decades, and by that point the geopolitical landscape of the world would be far different. In making this video, I learned two things. First, North Korea is actually a lot less geopolitically significant than the media would like to tell you, because it essentially serves as a small buffer state whose independence is in the balance should China not need it anymore. South Korea is far more geopolitically significant. Second of all, I learned that culture is a far more significant factor in geopolitics than initially meets the eye. Countries with as strong of a cultural exchange in binding as the United States and South Korea are not likely to leave each other's side. So basically what I'm saying is, if America wants to keep its strategic position in South Korea, its people need to indulge in Korean culture. Yep, I bet that's the ending you all expected. Obviously, that's not the only factor that will keep the country's allies, but cultural connection is a far larger player in geopolitics than you would first think. Thank you all for watching. 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